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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 16th of July 2020
 










Tavi Costa tweeted
World Of Finance


1/12 The idealization of Chinese economic success has always been a big scam. Throughout history we have had several similar examples of communist countries that have reached unsustainable levels of internal and external debt and have suffered marked collapses.

2/12 Para elaborar nessa proposição, considere a seguinte reflexão. De acordo com o PIB publicado pelo governo chinês, a China foi responsável por mais de 60% do crescimento econômico global desde 2008.

2/12 To elaborate on this proposition, consider the following reflection. According to GDP published by the Chinese government, China has accounted for more than 60% of global economic growth since 2008.

3/12 Com isso, ela passou a ser, incomparavelmente, a maior importadora de commodities no mundo. Se caso o seu crescimento de PIB tivesse sido tão expressivo, como justificaríamos a queda geral de preços de commodities no mundo?

3/12 As a result, it has become, by far, the largest importer of commodities in the world. If your GDP growth had been so expressive, how would we justify the general drop in commodity prices in the world?

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Couleur Additive Carlos Cruz-Diez (Caracas, 1923 - Paris, 2019)
Misc.

 A major protagonist in the field of Kinetic and Optical Art, a movement that encourages “an awareness of the instability of reality”*, his body of work established him as one of the key 20th century thinkers in the realm of color.

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R_14_14: #US 1.3 #SouthAfrica 1.8 #Australia 2.9 ? #Kenya 1.7 #Kyrgyzstan 2 @oli3be
Misc.


#US 1.3

#India 1.4

#Mexico 1.3

#Spain 1.1

#Italy 0.8

#SouthAfrica 1.8

#Germany 0.8

#France 1.1

#Colombia 1.5

#Indonesia 1.3

#Ecuador 2.2

#Switzerland 1.7 ?

#Romania 1.6

#Japan 1.8 ?

#Austria 1.8

#Serbia 2.1

#Uzbekistan 2

#Australia 2.9 ?

#Kenya 1.7

#Kyrgyzstan 2

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Three US states representing nearly 30% of US GDP have seen weekly cases rise 2-6 fold in a month Combined they're a $6 trillion economy.. so a potential hard lockdown is a worry @RencapMan
U.S. Economy

Three US states representing nearly 30% of US GDP have seen weekly cases rise 2-6 fold in a month  Combined they're a $6 trillion economy.. bigger than Japan .. or Germany and Africa combined .. so a potential hard lockdown is a worry

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13- July 2020 - The Year of the Virus
World Of Finance




We are here

Total Confirmed 12,740,971

My Model is showing 300,000,000 cases by December


summary of #COVID__19 @SandroDemaio


• 1,424,892 cases were confirmed in the last week • 229,759 just in the last 24 hours @MaxCRoser


The #COVID Daily Case Count is above 200,000


cases doubled worldwide in 6 weeks

Malcolm Gladwell spoke of the Boiling Point

Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It’s the boiling point. It’s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. #nCoV2019


We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us.

a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.



This is the Comet NEOWISE BBC


I was reading Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah which sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period.

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.

Countries that I'm worried about. @MaxCRoser


Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.” Angela Merkel

The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.

political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis


Madagascar 435 nouveaux cas confirmés #covid19mg @NCoVAfrica

A Lot of People whom I follow and who should know better by now keep repeating that the CFR rate is very low. Understand this



A reminder that # deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later @nntaleb 




Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear

Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.



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Deadly @WHO coverup continues with hoax inquiry @SkyNewsAust
Misc.


The World Health Organisation had a chance to make amends for its role in the deadliest coverup in human history when it sent scientists to China to investigate the origins of the coronavirus outbreak.

The UN-funded body failed, yet again. The coverup continues.

Those scientists will not walk away with any new, reliable information and whatever conclusions they draw must be scrutinised closely.

How can this be stated with certainty?

The scientists won't even enter the secretive laboratory that had been testing coronaviruses on bats in the leadup to the first outbreak.

Instead the scientists will adopt the presupposition that the virus jumped naturally from animals to humans in a Chinese wet market or the wild.

This theory lacks any credible or direct evidence but it is indeed China’s preferred theory outside of allegations the virus was a planned attack from the US.

At least one commonality exists between all theories surrounding the virus and that is the lack of evidence and many circumstantial assumptions needed to justify the narratives.

There is as much direct evidence linking the outbreak to a natural animal to human transmission in China as there is linking the pandemic to poor practices at a lab experimenting with deadly viruses.

And both those theories have roughly the same amount of evidence as conspiracy theories that China knowingly unleashed the virus on the world to gain power amid the turmoil.

This writer is not arguing that any particular theory is more correct than another, only that they are equally plausible but equally lack evidence.

The problem is that WHO operatives have taken it upon themselves to dismiss all other theories in favour of a narrative fed to the world by the increasingly belligerent Chinese government.

So instead of an independent investigation which takes the inquiry in the direction evidence points it, what we have is a taxpayer-funded exercise designed to selectively build evidence that China was telling the truth all along.

Listen carefully to the words the WHO general manager Tedros Adhanom used to describe the investigation.

“All preparations have been finalised and WHO experts will be traveling to China this weekend to prepare scientific plans with their Chinese counterparts for identifying the zoonotic source of the disease,” he said this week.

“The experts will develop the scope and terms of reference for a WHO-led international mission.

“The mission objective is to advance the understanding of animal hosts for COVID-19 and ascertain how the disease jumped between animals and humans.”

How the disease jumped between animals and humans?

It seems like Dr Adhanom is a psychic and knows the outcomes of the pending investigation.

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The @WHO are going to China for a break.
Law & Politics



The WHO are going to China for a break.

This is a time for self-reflection, for all of us involved in the #COVID19 response to look in the mirror; to look at the world we live in and to find ways to strengthen our collaboration as we work together to save lives and bring this pandemic under control.



.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros 


“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.



“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”

Dear @MaEllenSirleaf & @HelenClarkNZ The starting point of your enquiry has to be precisely what is being precluded below because “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” #COVID19 


I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.




There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.

According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”


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Cecil Rhodes 'beheaded' at Cape Town monument @TimesLIVE
Law & Politics

The head of Cecil Rhodes has been chopped off from a bust of the 19th century colonialist at a monument on the slopes of Table Mountain in Cape Town, park rangers said on Tuesday.

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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1408

Dollar Index 96.103

Japan Yen 106.95

Swiss Franc 0.9442

Pound 1.2556

Aussie 0.6997

India Rupee 75.185

South Korea Won 1203.79

Brazil Real 5.3702

Egypt Pound 15.9733

South Africa Rand 16.66

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There's two Dollar narratives here: @RobinBrooksIIF
World Currencies

There's two Dollar narratives here: (i) Democrats will hike corporate taxes, which hurts S&P 500 & thus USD; (ii) political risk premium in USD goes to zero on a Biden win, so USD rises. Both arguments are second order. As long as we have no COVID-19 vaccine, USD stays strong..

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Doomsday Hedge Fund Sees Gold Topping $3,000 an Ounce @EdVanDerWalt
Commodities


“What we’ve seen over the last decade is the transformation from risk-free interest to interest-free risk, and what this has created is a global series of parallel synchronous bubbles,” says the fund manager, who’s also the author of a book called “The Anti-Bubbles: Opportunities Heading into Lehman Squared and Gold’s Perfect Storm.”

“One of the key bubbles is fiat currency, and one clear anti-bubble in this system is gold,” he said, adding that other examples are volatility, correlations and inflation. “It’s a case of when, not if, they will reprice significantly higher,” he said.

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IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS: SPATE OF TARGETED ATTACKS, EXCESSIVE USE OF FORCE BY SECURITY IN OROMIA LEAVE DEATH TRAILS, DESTRUCTION @addisstandard @ETENESHAB AND @BILEHJELAN
Law & Politics

Addis Abeba, July 15/2020 – Oromia regional state erupted into multiple protests a few hours after prominent Oromo artist Haccaaluu Hundessas was assassinated in the capital Addis Abeba on Monday June 30/2020 at approximately 9:30 PM local time.
“Today, they killed Haccee, tomorrow it will be us. We cannot sit back and watch this happen,” said one young man in a Facebook message posted shortly after the news of the assassination.  

These events took place in the early hours of Tuesday June 30. “When they escorted the guests from the hotel to the safety of the private house at around 7: 30 AM Tuesday morning, the city was already burning,” a relative of one of the victims told Addis Standard.    

The attacks and destruction that occurred mostly on Tuesday and Wednesday have left the city looking like a ghost city. 

Residential houses, businesses, flower farms, and cars were all looted first and set ablaze next.

But it didn’t stop the hosts of the group from continuing to provide shelter and security for their guests, whose car was eventually burned. 

Despite being victims themselves, their hosts spared no expense in sheltering and hosting the stranded guests in their house for three days until the city has calmed down and the visitors left for their respective homes.  

Other cities, towns and villages particularly in Arsi, west Arsi, and east Shewa zones of Oromia regional state are replete with similar or worse stories as the protests against the killing of Haccaaluu have quickly morphed into targeted attacks against minorities, especially the Amhara and Guraghe community members living in Oromia region. 

He recounts the horror that Wednesday was. “They went crazy, they were blood thirsty, and I don’t know where they came from or what they wanted. I am an Oromo & a Muslim and I had to beg them to leave my place of business alone.” He too lost everything he had.


Shashemene is perhaps the most devastated of all places in west Arsi zone, where the destruction in the city included Lucy Education Center, which has around 350 employees and 4, 200 students enrolled from kindergarten to secondary school. 

Its High school and preparatory compounds were also completely destroyed along with the offices, classrooms and libraries. 

According to Yohanes Woldie, its owner who spoke to several media outlets, the Center’s Aposto branch was also burned to ashes. Haile Resort, owned by the famous Ethiopian athlete Haile Gebresellasie, is the other notable property looted and completely destroyed. 




Some 480 individuals have taken shelter in these two churches. They too are being cared for community members, both from Christians and Muslims. According to community organizers, there hasn’t been any help from authorities yet.

“I was at a police station by the time my flour mill was being looted and burned, but the police did not show up until late afternoon,” he said.



The mother who lost her son also said she was not able to file the records of the death of her son until two days later because “the police do not even seem bothered by what took place. We have received no support from local authorities, we are living from handouts from community members,” she said, still shaken.

Both eye witnesses spoke of being overrun by people from outside the city; “young people who we never saw before,” the man said

“In this city, everyone knows everyone, but I have seen young people that I have never seen before roaming the streets when I was trying to collect my son’s body,” the woman said.    


Sasu Tamirat, another victim who is a native of Dheera, believe it is a well-coordinated attack, aided and abetted by local authorities

“It was organized & it was not a one day plan,” said Sasu, “I lost more than 4 million ETB and my family is now divided between Adama & this Church (St.Medhanialem).” 

Sasu also said that the attacks were religious based and points to Oromo Christian victims who took shelter in the same church. 

One such victim is Tsehay Hailu, a grandparent who is originally from the town of Sire (a town in Arsi Zone of Oromia regional state). She moved to Dera 36 years ago. 

“Surrounded by the smell of gasoline that they poured all over the house, I kneeled & begged them for my life,” she says remembering the events tearfully. 

“I asked them ‘when did I do you wrong my children?’ then I pleaded with them in the name of Allah to not hurt me or my family. They laughed amongst themselves & after robbing every valuable I had they told each other, ‘let’s leave this old woman alone’”.


According to officials, ten people were killed in Dheera including one police officer. Mi’raaf hotel, the most famous landmark of the city was also destroyed during the violence, as were banks, hotels and business centers.

Many of the eye witnesses and the victims who spoke to Addis Standard described the events in Dera as being “organized & supported somehow by city officials and law enforcement officers,” both Tesfa & Sasu said. 

All of them have described the police’s inaction & the assailants having access to information which can only be obtained from Kebelle offices. 

“The attackers had lists such as which properties belonged to who & what their ethnicity & religious affiliations were.” Said Sasu Tamrat; this kind of organized list can only be obtained from official registries, he adds.

City authorities have asked residents who were affected by the violence to register their damaged properties and provide proof as to how & by whom it was damaged. 

But many of them complained the process unpractical as visual proof is hard to obtain, acquiring eyewitnesses willing to testify nearly impossible, and implicating the culprits, especially those who came from outside, totally impossible. 

Berhanu Debelle, a resident said, “It is very difficult as many eye witnesses are scared and hence unwilling to testify on behalf of the victims.”

Those who spoke to Addis Standard described a feeling of loss not only of lives & properties but also the loss of the sense of security in their own country.


Back in Shashamne, Addis Standard obtained a pamphlet written in Afaan Oromo & distributed in neighborhoods days after the violence stopped. 

“Any native resident of the city who tries to help those who were affected, buy, sell or stand in proxy on behalf of them (the affected families), we will burn them & their entire families.” The pamphlet ended with the phrase, “The Qeeroo will take what’s theirs.”

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Thread of Ethiopia @Abukar_Arman
Law & Politics

Ever since Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed made his presence felt in the Horn & beyond I have been saying he is too duplicitous to fix Ethiopia's domestic issues let alone the Horn.

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14-OCT-2019 :: @PMEthiopia a fiendishly complicated task fending off the centripetal forces which are tearing Ethiopia apart
Law & Politics

“Whoever controls the territory possesses it. Possession of terri- tory is not primarily about laws and contracts, but first and foremost a matter of movement and circulation.”

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29. Zambia denies accusations President @EdgarCLungu Lungu bankrolled Rwandan rebels @AFP H/T @thomasamter
Law & Politics




Lusaka – Zambia's government on Tuesday rejected claims that President Edgar Lungu had bankrolled a Rwandan rebel leader accused of orchestrating deadly attacks in his country's border regions.

The claims were made by the rebel chief, Callixte Nsabimana, who is on trial for terrorism and other charges. 

He has already admitted to working with other foreign governments against Rwanda



During his latest hearing on Monday, Nsabimana told a Rwandan high court that Lungu had promised his National Liberation Front (FLN) $1 million to help oust the administration in Kigali.

He said Lungu had made a down payment of $150 000 in support of "rebel attacks to remove President Paul Kagame from power".


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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19
Africa

Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19 and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said 

’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone. 

“Our pandemic is getting full speed.”

Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa 

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days 300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days 400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa

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South Africa’s cases of COVID-19 were set to reach 300,000 on Wednesday, the most in Africa and in the top 10 in the world
Africa


But with the world’s fourth-largest daily increase in coronavirus cases in a country of 58 million people, an exasperated Ramaphosa on Sunday reimposed an alcohol ban and a night curfew.

“South Africa went into lockdown ... so early, (it looked) ... really impressive,” said Charles Robertson, a senior economist at Renaissance Capital, who has been closely tracking the coronavirus.

“What became clear is that lockdowns don’t work in low-income countries,” he said. “In informal economies, (people) ... can’t afford to stay at home.”


At just 4,346 deaths, barely 1.5% of cases have proved fatal so far, in part because of a young population. 

That will rise as shortages of oxygen and hospital beds worsen. Ramaphosa said scientists had predicted up to 50,000 deaths.

“We are seeing a system that’s under pressure, not under disaster collapse ... But it’s taking a huge strain,” Charl van Loggerenberg, head of emergency medicine at Life Healthcare, which has private hospitals treating COVID patients across the country.


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Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa
Africa

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 

100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 

200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days

300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days

400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent
Africa



The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa

Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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Zimbabwe Steps Closer to Hyperinflation With 737.3% Annual Rate @economics
World Of Finance

Zimbabwe continued on its march back to hyperinflation in June, adding to the nation’s economic woes.

While annual inflation slowed for the first time in five months to 737.3% from 785.6% in May, the monthly inflation rate more than doubled to 31.7%, the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency said Tuesday on Twitter. 

International Monetary Fund studies define hyperinflation as beginning when monthly price increases exceed 50%.

The southern African nation is struggling with food and fuel shortages and a local currency that has imploded since being reintroduced last year after a decade-long hiatus. 

The previous bout of hyperinflation, during which the annual rate of price growth surged to 500 billion percent, according to the IMF, forced the government to drop the Zimbabwe dollar and foreign currencies became legal tender in 2009.

Bankers in the country this week joined nurses, doctors and other health-care professionals demanding to be paid in U.S. dollars to cushion themselves against soaring inflation and the depreciating local currency

The Zimbabwe dollar has slumped to 65.8765 against the greenback after a 25:1 peg put introduced in March was abandoned.

The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange has been closed since June 28 and the central bank banned bulk payments on mobile-money platforms which authorities blame for undermining the local currency.

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa



We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. 

Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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S&P downgrades Kenya's outlook to 'negative' on coronavirus pressures
Kenyan Economy

- S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday revised Kenya’s outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’, citing that the coronavirus pandemic will slow the country’s GDP growth significantly in 2020 and weigh on its already weak public finances.

"Although external financial support, including from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will help fund Kenya's twin fiscal and external deficits in 2020, external debt will rise sharply in 2020 and remain high in 2020-2023," the ratings agency said in a statement here

S&P affirmed Kenya’s ratings at ‘B+/B’.

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16 March 1975: funeral of Josiah Mwangi Kariuki, leading critic of Jomo Kenyatta's govt, buried at his farm in Gilgil. @unseen_archive
Law & Politics




Kariuki--formerly a Mau Mau detainee--was the leading spokesman for Kenya's poor. 'I firmly believe that substituting Kamau for Smith, Odongo for James &  1/3


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.@BatKenya British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd. reports H1 2020 Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Par Value:                  10/-

Closing Price:           310.00

Total Shares Issued:          100000000.00

Market Capitalization:        31,000,000,000

EPS:             38.85

PE:                 7.979

  

BAT reports H1 2020 Earnings trough 30th June 2020

H1 Gross Revenue 16.615b versus 19.228b -13.6% 

H1 Net Revenue 10.537b versus 11.289b -6.7% 

H1 Cost of Operations [6.790b] versus [7.551b] -10.1% 

H1 Operating Profit 3.747b versus 3.738b

H1 Profit before Tax 3.666b versus 3.612b

H1 Profit after Tax 2.679b versus 2.528b

H1 EPS 26.79 versus 25.28

H1 Dividend 3.50 versus 3.5 unchanged 

H1 Decrease in Cash and Cash Equivalents [1.947b]

Company Commentary 

Company demonstrated resilience amidst the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 PANDEMIC put severe pressure on consumer affordability and adversely impacted the trading environment as retailing outlets closed.

Illicit Trade in tax evaded cigarettes also remains a consistent concern in Kenya 

Lower domestic and export revenue 

Operating margin increased by 2.4 percentage points to 35.6% 

Conclusions

resilient. Net Revenue decline of -6.7% is a single digit decline and commendable in fact.

This is a cheap share on a Forward PE basis with a prospective Yield of 10%+

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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