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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 21st of July 2020

@Citi Says It’s ‘Only a Matter of Time’ Before Gold Hits a Record @markets

Bullish factors building in the bullion market are set to see prices take out the record set in 2011, according to Citigroup Inc.

Prices are benefiting from loose monetary policy, low real yields, record inflows into exchange-traded funds and increased asset allocation, analysts including Ed Morse wrote in the bank’s third-quarter commodities outlook. 

Gold is expected climb to an all-time high in the next six-to-nine months, and there’s a 30% probability it’ll top $2,000 an ounce in the next three-to-five months.

“Nominal gold prices have already posted fresh records in every other G-10 and major emerging market currency this year,” the Citigroup analysts said. 

“It is only a matter of time for fresh” highs in U.S. dollars, they said.

Gold has surged 19% this year to the highest in almost nine years as the coronavirus pandemic drove investors to havens, while easier monetary policy and other measures to shore up economies also supported demand. 

Citigroup is among a long line of market watchers in predicting bullion will either test or top its long-standing record as the resurgence of virus cases in several parts of the world point to a prolonged and uneven global economic recovery.

Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,808.58/oz at 12:52 p.m. in Singapore, following six straight weeks of gains. 

Prices are about 6% away from the all-time high of $1,921.17 set in 2011.

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UK-Hong Kong extradition treaty suspended immediately - @DominicRaab @Reuters
Law & Politics

“The imposition of this new security legislation has significantly changed key assumptions underpinning our extradition treaty arrangements with Hong Kong,” he told lawmakers on Monday.

“The government has decided to suspend the extradition treaty immediately and indefinitely.”

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What are the top ten reasons you like the White House's handling of Covid-19! All ears!!! @jimcramer
Law & Politics

So many here are in favor of the way the administration has handled the virus... I am wide open to hearing good things.. Let's hear them ,. What are the top ten reasons you like the White House's handling of Covid-19! All ears!!!

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Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”
Law & Politics

I was reading Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah which sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period.

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.

Countries that I'm worried about. @MaxCRoser

Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.” 

The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.

political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis

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13-JUL-2020 : Year of the Virus

We are here

Total Confirmed 12,740,971

My Model is showing 300,000,000 cases by December

summary of #COVID__19 @SandroDemaio

• 1,424,892 cases were confirmed in the last week • 229,759 just in the last 24 hours @MaxCRoser

The #COVID Daily Case Count is above 200,000

cases doubled worldwide in 6 weeks

Malcolm Gladwell spoke of the Boiling Point

Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It’s the boiling point. It’s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. #nCoV2019

We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us.

a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.

This is the Comet NEOWISE BBC

Madagascar 435 nouveaux cas confirmés #covid19mg @NCoVAfrica

A Lot of People whom I follow and who should know better by now keep repeating that the CFR rate is very low. Understand this

A reminder that # deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later @nntaleb 

Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear

Here we go round the prickly pear At five o’clock in the morning.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1462

Dollar Index 95.718

Japan Yen 107.28

Swiss Franc 0.9378

Pound 1.2701

Aussie 0.7043

India Rupee 74.8155

South Korea Won 1197.74

Brazil Real 5.3294

Egypt Pound 15.9703

South Africa Rand 16.5466

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23-SEP-2019 :: I, therefore, am putting out a ‘’conviction’’ Buy on Netflix at Friday’s closing price of $270.75. $NFLX
World Of Finance

My Mind kept to an Article I read in 2012 ‘’Annals of Technology Streaming Dreams’’ by John Seabrook January 16, 2012. 

Once Investors appreciate that the Story is an international one and not a US one anymore, we will see the price ramp to fresh all-time highs. 

I, therefore, am putting out a ‘’conviction’’ Buy on Netflix at Friday’s closing price of $270.75.

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Here we go again… Negative yielding bonds just broke out. Interest rate suppression while money supply expands. @TaviCosta
World Of Finance

This only adds fuel to the gold & silver fire. Interest rate suppression while money supply expands. An explosive mix for precious metals.

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Brothers Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt attempted to corner the world silver markets in the late 1970s and early 1980s, at one stage holding the rights to more than half of the world's deliverable silver.

During the Hunts' accumulation of the precious metal, silver prices rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to nearly $50 an ounce in January 1980.[2] 

Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later,[2] much of the fall occurring on a single day now known as Silver Thursday, due to changes made to exchange rules regarding the purchase of commodities on margin.[3]

“Hunt had a paranoid world view and it made sense to him to amass silver and hang on to it.”

Most traders buy and sell paper. The actual stuff represented by that paper is delivered to someone else. Hunt wanted the silver. 

He chartered three 707 jet aircraft to haul the metal to warehouses in Switzerland and hired a dozen sharpshooting cowboys to provide security, according to Knight.

When he began buying silver with his brothers in 1973, it cost $2 an ounce and a big consumer was Eastman Kodak to make film.

Before the Hunts were through, seven years later, they’d stockpiled more than 200 million ounces, the price was soaring past $45 an ounce and regulators were preparing to take measures to make sure nothing like what Nelson Bunker Hunt had done would ever happen again.

“They broke the ascent by basically outlawing the buying of silver,” said Knight, who blogs at slopeofhope.com. “Only liquidation orders would be accepted. It’s almost criminal what they did.”

On March 27, 1980 — what came to be known as “silver Thursday” — Comex asked Bache Group, the Hunts’ broker, for $134 million.

The three Hunt brothers had $4.5 billion in silver holdings, $3.5 billion of it profit, Knight said. But they didn’t have $134 million.

A $180 million judgment against them pushed the Hunts into bankruptcy. All Bunker Hunt had left from his billions were a few million, a stable of racehorses and a $90 million tax bill to be paid over a 15-year period, Knight said.

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#Mexico #COVID19 death rate amongst greatest in world at 11.3%. #USA total deaths most in North America. @jmlukens

#Guatemala on track for 2k deaths by end of July.  #DominicanRepublic & #Honduras each 1-2 days away from 1k total deaths.

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Madagascar Hospitals Reach Full Capacity as Covid-19 Cases Surge @business

Public hospitals in Madagascar said they’ve reached full capacity and will only accept patients with the most severe forms of Covid-19 as cases surge in the Indian Ocean island nation.

President Andry Rajoelina earlier this month reimposed a lockdown on the country’s central region until July 26 as the five public hospitals in the capital, Antananarivo, announced they could no longer cope with the influx of patients. 

Only one person per household is allowed to go out to buy food or medicine. An initial lockdown in March was lifted after four weeks.

The government has opened a 400-bed treatment center for people with mild symptoms and is importing about 1,000 oxygen machines. 

The number of confirmed cases reached 7,153 on Monday, including 62 deaths. 

Those who don’t get tested and die at home will not be included in official statistics, the spokeswoman of the country’s Covid-19 Command Center, Hanta Marie Danielle Vololontiana, said last week.

Madagascar is building a factory to mass-produce a drink that was touted by authorities as a cure for Covid-19 even though it hasn’t been clinically tested or approved by drug regulators. 

Sold as Covid-Organics, the drink contains extracts of the artemisia annua plant, which is used to treat malaria.

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‘The pandemic is gaining momentum’: Africa prepares for surge in infections #COVID19 @FinancialTimes @davidpilling

His predecessor, Pierre Nkurunziza, who had scoffed at the virus and entrusted Burundi’s protection to God, paid a heavy price for his nonchalance. He died, almost certainly of Covid-19 itself.

After months in which Africa escaped the worst of the coronavirus pandemic as the global centre shifted from Asia to Europe and then to the Americas, the number of African infections — and deaths — has begun to increase sharply. 

At least 14,500 people have now died out of 667,000 confirmed infections. 

That has raised concern among some experts that the world’s poorest continent may be about to enter a critical phase of the coronavirus outbreak.

“The pandemic is gaining full momentum,” says John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which has mounted an effective continent-wide response. 

As transmission of the virus gathers pace, he warns, the danger is that “our hospital systems will be overwhelmed”.

That is already happening in South Africa, the worst affected country on the continent, where confirmed cases are doubling every two weeks and intensive care wards in Johannesburg and Cape Town are overflowing. At the current rate, more than 1m people will be infected by early August.

Not all of Africa has been severely struck. Some countries, such as Botswana, Namibia and Gambia, have registered few infections and barely any deaths. 

The island of Mauritius successfully stamped out an early rash of imported infections and has not recorded a single case of local transmission for nearly three months.

However, new spikes of infections in several African countries are clouding such optimism

Of the states that have been harder hit, more than half of recorded cases have been in just five countries — South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and Ghana — although that partly reflects their higher testing capacity.

But the pandemic has spread much further than that. 

According to the World Health Organization, in 22 of the continent’s 54 countries, cases have more than doubled in a month, with states such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Cameroon and Djibouti showing sharp rises. 

After a long period in which most infections in Africa were imported, mainly from Europe, two-thirds of countries on the continent are now reporting community transmission, the WHO says.

Malawi, a tea-producing country of 18m people in southern Africa, is a case in point. On the face of it, its numbers look reassuring, with just 51 deaths and around 2,700 infections by mid-July. 

But healthcare workers say they are starting to see a significant rise in infections.

“Our first case was in early April and since that time we have had this very gradual trickle, trickle, trickle,” says Mina Hosseinipour, professor of medicine at the University of North Carolina’s Malawi project in Lilongwe, the capital. “We were like: when is this thing going to come?”

The lack of deadly infections was all the more remarkable, she says, given a series of blunders that might have been expected to spell disaster. 

Many of the Malawians who were sent home by the busload from South Africa, where they had been working, returned with Covid-19

“We see these young people running around with Covid, just living their lives normally,” he says. “But we need to back this up with appropriate studies.”
“In terms of managing the pandemic, so far it is under control,” says Mr Kassory Fofana. “We are optimistic because our population is much younger.”

The second lesson is that more testing is urgently required. South Africa is testing around 50,000 people a day and countries such as Djibouti, Ghana and Morocco have made concerted efforts to test widely. 

Yet, according to an analysis by Reuters, African countries had on average tested 4,200 per 1m people by July 7, compared with 74,255 in Europe.

Strive Masiyiwa, a Zimbabwean businessman appointed as a special envoy of the African Union, says that a pan-African medical supplies digital platform he has helped establish should enable a massive ramp-up in testing capacity. 

The platform, which went live in July, is backed by a $3.8bn credit line from the African Export-Import Bank. 

It allows African governments and organisations to pool their orders, making it easier to benefit from bulk pricing.

“There is now no excuse to say we can’t get test kits and therefore we can’t test,” says Mr Masiyiwa, who adds that governments can also use the platform to equip hospitals with oxygen units, protective equipment, medicines and ventilators in preparation for a coming wave of infections.

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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19

Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19 and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said 

’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone. 

“Our pandemic is getting full speed.”

Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa 

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days 300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days 400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa

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SA #COVID19 UPDATE 20 July @rid1tweets

• 9,300 new cases. Daily doubling rate = 27.5 days 

• 33,899 tests conducted. Over 2.5M in total 

• Daily positivity rate = 27.4% 

• 140 more deaths today

• 3,806 additional recoveries

• Active cases = 173,590

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Cumulative total of *reported* #COVID19 cases in Africa @Covid_Africa

From 1st case to 100,000 cases: 98 days 

100,000 to 200,000 cases: 18 days 

200,000 to 300,000 cases: 12 days

300,000 to 400,000 cases: 9 days

400,000 to 500,000 cases: 7 days

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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent

The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.

There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ‘’Silver Bullet’’

That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word

We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!

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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

Kano in Nigeria for example

Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388

Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.

The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.

The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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I&M Holdings has struck a deal to buy 90% of the shares in Orient Bank Uganda, it said in a filing released by the Nairobi bourse on Monday. @ReutersAfrica
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

I&M is the ninth largest of Kenya’s 40 banks by assets while Orient is one of the small lenders in neighbouring Uganda. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

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I & M Holdings Ltd share price data
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Closing Price: 49.25 Market Capitalization: $378.091m EPS:12.47 PE: 3.949

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2020

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