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An Interview with Anthony Scaramucci @Scaramucci @RichTvAfrica
World Of Finance
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The Economic Meltdown Kenya Is In @johngithongo Julian Rowa @alykhansatchu @theelephantinfo - Speaking truth to power
Kenyan Economy
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An Interview with @peterfrankopan Professor of Global History via @YouTube @RichTvAfrica #COVID19 @UniofOxford cc @EngelsbergIdeas
Misc.
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Charlie Robertson Interview @RencapMan Global chief economist Renaissance Capital via @RichTvAfrica
World Of Finance
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Interview with Tracy Shuchart 𝕮𝖍𝖎 @chigrl @Richtvafrica
World Of Finance
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The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved #COVID19
World Of Finance
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13-JUL-2020 :: Year of the Virus
World Of Finance
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What’s certain is that the whole global economy has been hit by an insidious, literally invisible circuit breaker. @asiatimesonline #COVID19
World Of Finance
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22-JUN-2020 :: The FED WILL KEEP ON PRINTING THEY HAVE ONLY JUST GOTTEN STARTED
World Of Finance
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Some of the estates in Nairobi started as farms. Karen was a coffee farm,Donholm was a dairy farm,Ridgeways was a farm and Muthaiga was a dairy farm as well. @KResearcher
Africa
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''You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”
Africa
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A Luminous and Fairy Tale feel
World Of Finance
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The Hollow Men Mistah Kurtz — he dead A penny for the Old Guy
Misc.
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Between the desire And the spasm
Between the potency And the existence
Between the essence And the descent
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom
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Epic of Gilgamesh was translated from its original cuneiform, Together, we can translate from a tablet written just under 4,000 years ago. @protosemite
Misc.
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Before we begin, a couple things to note: cuneiform is a writing system composesd of "signs" representing both syllables and words, and each sign can often have many different, often confusing, possible readings.
ḫarīmtum pīša īpušam-ma
izzakaram ana Enkidu
anaṭṭalka Enkidu kīma ilim tabašši
ammīnim itti namaštê
tattanallak ṣēram
the prostitute opened her mouth, and
declared to Enkidu:
'Gazing upon you, Enkidu, you are like a god,
Why, with beasts,
Are you wandering around the wild
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Tablet XI The Epic of Gilgamesh (@britishmuseum) "You gods may I be mindful of these days & never forget them." @RobGMacfarlane
Misc.
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(Gilgamesh to Enkidu, Tablet III of the Old-Babylonian version)
Misc.
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"Who is there, my friend, can climb to the sky?
Only the gods dwell forever in sunlight.
As for man, his days are numbered,
whatever he may do, it is but wind."
(Gilgamesh to Enkidu, Tablet III of the Old-Babylonian version)
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How to Read "Gilgamesh" @NewYorker
Misc.
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A carnelian tree was in fruit,
hung with bunches of grapes, lovely to look on.
A lapis lazuli tree bore foliage,
in full fruit and gorgeous to gaze on.
To me, this is the most dazzling passage in the poem: the engulfing darkness, in which Gilgamesh can see nothing for hours—he is just an organism, in a hole—and then, suddenly, light, color, beautiful globes of purple and red hanging from the trees. God’s world, made for us, or so we thought.
Gilgamesh does not linger in the garden. He at last finds Uta-napishti, the man who gazed on death and survived. Gilgamesh wants to know, How did you do this? Unhelpfully, Uta-napishti explains:
“No one at all sees Death,
no one at all sees the face [of Death,]
no one at all [hears] the voice of Death,
Death so savage, who hacks men down. . . .
Ever the river has risen and brought us the flood,
the mayfly floating on the water.
On the face of the sun its countenance gazes,
then all of a sudden nothing is there!”
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We're the last billionth of a second in the evolution of matter.
Misc.
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Don DeLillo wrote "Everything is barely weeks. Everything is days. We have minutes to live." The Way we live now #COVID19
Misc.
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Sun up in the Maasai Mara. Photo by @AcSafaris @kenyapics
Africa
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Good morning from Africa! Photo by Giulia Pepe @kenyapics
Africa
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Sunrise with a herd of elephants @finchhattons Tsavo
Africa
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Lev Borodulin time to go @rvoneinem
Misc.
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Political Reflections
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China orders U.S. to shut consulate in city of Chengdu @Reuters
Law & Politics
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“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China informed the U.S. Embassy in China of its decision to withdraw its consent for the establishment and operation of the U.S. Consulate General in Chengdu,” it said in a statement.
“The Ministry also made specific requirements on the ceasing of all operations and events by the Consulate General,” it said.
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More than 17th million people are watching CCTV's live stream. #Chengdu #China @Allez1023
Law & Politics
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@SecPompeo to Urge Chinese People to Change Communist Party @WSJ
Law & Politics
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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is calling on the Chinese people to alter the ruling Communist Party’s direction in a sharp-toned speech explaining the Trump administration’s full-throttled response to an assertive China.
According to a draft of the speech, to be delivered Thursday afternoon, Mr. Pompeo says Chinese leader Xi Jinping is “true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology.”
Mr. Pompeo stops shy of explicitly calling for regime change, urging allied countries and the people of China to work with the U.S. to change the Communist Party’s behavior.
The Communist Party “fears the Chinese people’s honest opinions more than any foreign foe,” Mr. Pompeo plans to say in the speech at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum.
The U.S. “must also engage and empower the Chinese people,” Mr. Pompeo says, according to the draft.
The speech, called “Communist China and the Free World’s Future,” caps a series of addresses by senior officials in recent weeks focusing on what the Trump administration sees as the challenge posed by China and its expanding global reach.
The uncompromising rhetoric has been accompanied by an uptick in administration pressure on Beijing—from sanctions to military exercises and indictments—as relations between the countries spiral downward to the lowest point in decades.
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward It has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ Strategy all point at more intensity rather than less.
World Of Finance
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The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
Law & Politics
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But this is something much harsher than realism. This is intergalactic Darwinism. @bopinion @nfergus
Law & Politics
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"The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.”
First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:
The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.
Kissinger is often thought of (in my view, wrongly) as the supreme American exponent of Realpolitik. But this is something much harsher than realism. This is intergalactic Darwinism.
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward it has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment
World Of Finance
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07-OCT-2019 :: China turns 70
China
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They have “stood up.” Xi’s model is one of technocratic authoritarianism and a recent addition to his book shelf include The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. Xi is building an Algorithmic Society.
The World in the 21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
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15 OCT 18 :: War is coming
Law & Politics
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CENTCOM spox said a US F-15 "conducted a standard visual inspection of a Mahan Air passenger airliner at a safe distance of approximately 1,000 meters from the airliner this evening." @hdagres
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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25 NOV 19 :: Iran’s ‘only crime is we decided not to fold'
Law & Politics
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Is India lacking a global vision, Shri @RahulGandhi explains. @PChidambaram_IN
Law & Politics
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Amit Shah, Modi's deputy, "Do you understand what I'm saying?" he said. "We are capable of delivering any message we want to the public - whether sweet or sour, true or fake."
Law & Politics
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Putin plans to make the West destroy itself @spectator
Law & Politics
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Instead Russia appears as a phantom, unknowable menace, and this will spawn a thousand conspiracy theories far more corrosive and confusing to our politics than any Moscow--generated Twitter-storm or document leak.
There’s no smoking gun on Brexit. Yet the government-induced delay in publication allows anyone that way inclined to imagine a cover-up.
Even the insistence that the state should do more to prevent Russian meddling plays into Putin’s hands.
The fear of Russian interference in British elections creates chaos and division — and this, rather than any particular result, is Putin’s real goal.
One Facebook page that the group operated, Blacktivist, racked up 11.2 million user engagements and more than 360,000 likes by September 2017 — compared with the 301,000 likes of the verified Black Lives Matter Facebook account.
Russian trolls are equal-opportunity provocateurs. Between 2014 and 2017 the Internet Research Agency, a troll farm based in St Petersburg funded by close Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, ran thousands of Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube accounts propagating both pro-black and pro--Southern culture themes in the US — as well as pro-Scottish independence and Brexit--related tweets and posts.
A detailed 2018 study by the University of Washington found that Russian-controlled Twitter accounts that mentioned the hashtag #BlackLivesMatter were disseminating not only pro-BLM messages but also ironic anti-BLM memes such as ‘What is this world coming to when you can’t aim a gun at some cops without them shooting you? #BlackLivesMatter’.
And just in case that wasn’t cynical enough, Russian trolls even sought to discredit BLM by promoting the message that ‘#BlackLivesMatter is an arm of the Russian government’.
‘To put it simply… Russia wants to watch us tear ourselves apart.’It’s no surprise that Russia is so good at influence operations in the West given how long it’s been doing them.
The Soviets covertly channelled funds to the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament and to the National Union of Mineworkers during the 1984 strike.
And though FBI director J. Edgar Hoover’s suspicions that Martin Luther King was receiving Russian funds were unfounded, Soviet propagandists used American racism to discredit Washington’s claim to moral leadership during the Cold War.
Whenever the USSR was criticised for its human rights abuses, the standard official rebuttal ‘and you lynch Negroes’ was so proverbial that it became shorthand for Soviet whataboutism.
Today, Russian propagandists no longer have to recruit useful idiots to further their cause. They can simply speak directly to millions through social media.
And their task is easier than for earlier generations of influencers, because instead of spreading the message of communism, the modern Russian trolls’ aim is a simple reversal of St Francis of Assisi’s prayer: to bring discord in place of harmony, error instead of truth, and despair where there is hope.
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22-JUN-2020 :: Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
World Of Finance
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I thought to myself This all has the Imprimatur of the "political technologist of all of Rus." And non linear War Specialist Vladislav Surkov.
Putin's system was also ripe for export, Mr Surkov added. Foreign governments were already paying close attention, since the Russian "political algorithm" had long predicted the volatility now seen in western democracies.
With a flourish he sponsored lavish arts festivals for the most provocative modern artists in Moscow, then supported Orthodox fundamentalists, dressed all in black and carrying crosses, who in turn attacked the modern-art exhibitions. @TheAtlantic
"It was the first non-linear war," writes Surkov in a new short story, "Without Sky," published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the "fifth world war":
"My portfolio at the @KremlinRussia_E and in government has included ideology, media, political parties, religion, modernization, innovation, foreign relations, and ..." - here he pauses and smiles - "modern art."
A ceaseless shape-shifting that is unstoppable because it is undefinable Adam Curtis
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05-DEC-2016:: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk." "We copy. There's a voice." "We have gross oscillation here"
Law & Politics
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One common theme is a parabolic Putin rebound.
At this moment, President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded. The intellectual father of the new Zeitgeist that propelled Brexit, Le Pen, the Five Star movement in Italy, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands, is Vladimir Putin.
However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital.
Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short stories:
The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”.
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy. There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on
the step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60 years ago.”
I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.
Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb — were devastating and terminal.
The first thing is plausible deniability
The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way.
Beppe Grillo, the comic turned leader of the Five Star movement in Italy said: This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the intellectuals, of the journalists.”
He is right, traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents can broadcast live and over the top.
From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.
Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are his information victims.
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#Pandemic accelerate ~ 600,000 new cases in 2 days ~ 22,500 new deaths in 3 days @oli3be
Misc.
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Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It’s the boiling point. It’s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. #nCoV2019
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We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Misc.
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A virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.
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Global #COVID19 diagnosed cases pass 15 million. @JohnsHopkins & @WHO 15,225,501 - Total Cases 279,499 - Daily Cases 1.8% - Daily growth Rate @jmlukens
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Global #COVID19 diagnosed case growth average 1.8%. @jmlukens
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The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
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The world made another new high. @biancoresearch
Misc.
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Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. #COVID19
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U.S. records 2,600 new coronavirus cases every hour as total surpasses four million #COVID19
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* U.S. CORONAVIRUS CASES EXCEED 4 MILLION TOTAL ON THURSDAY, RISING BY 1 MILLION IN 16 DAYS - REUTERS TALLY @carlquintanilla
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24-FEB-2020 :: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Misc.
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623,404 global #COVID19 deaths, 6983 new deaths, and 4.1% death rate. Exponential increase in total deaths observed in most countries. @jmlukens
Misc.
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Daily deaths, total deaths, and death rate vs time for all countries and world visualized.
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Each man's death diminishes me, For I am involved in mankind. Therefore, send not to know For whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee. #COVID19
Misc.
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"Available evidence suggests COVID-19 leaped from wild animal to human." Which evidence? RaTG13 that is not a single sample but a consensus sequence and it was renamed and it disintegrated Is this a bad joke? @Rossana38510044
Misc.
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"Available evidence suggests COVID-19 leaped from wild animal to human." Which evidence? RaTG13 that is not a single sample but a consensus sequence and it was renamed and it disintegrated. Pangolin CoV sequences contaminated by human sequences. Is this a bad joke?
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I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory #COVID19
Misc.
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There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.
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"Some features in [SARS-CoV-2] that initially may have looked unusual, you’re now finding in nature". Sorry but the furin cleavage site is totally artificial in this group of viruses @Rossana38510044
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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
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“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”― William S. Burroughs
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The @WHO are going to China for a break. [Not anymore]
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.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros
Misc.
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“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”
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Dear @MaEllenSirleaf & @HelenClarkNZ The starting point of your enquiry has to be precisely what is being precluded below because “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” #COVID19
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I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released – Wuhan is to the CCP as Idlib is to the Syrian Regime – and propagated world wide.
According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”
However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
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24-FEB-2020 :: @WHO is captured. And millions of lives will have been trifled with #COVID19 the Game is Up. #COVID19 Game is Up. #COVID19
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Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”
Law & Politics
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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.
The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.
political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis
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Samora Machel Praca de Independencia #Maputo
Africa
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International Markets
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13-JUL-2020 :: Year of the Virus I expect the US Curve out to 10 Years to be negative by Year End
World Of Finance
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Bond yields are definitely fixated with a move to zero....yields grind lower every single day. @RaoulGMI
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1608
Dollar Index 94.697
Japan Yen 106.21
Swiss Franc 0.9250
Pound 1.2734
Aussie 0.7080
India Rupee 74.8875
South Korea Won 1203.26
Brazil Real 5.2120
Egypt Pound 15.99
South Africa Rand 16.77
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DXY DeMark Sequential buy Countdown 13 w/ an RSI of 27. @BittelJulien 94.7
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1606
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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1,888.8 @goldseek
Commodities
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22-MAR-2020 :: I believe Gold will soon turn viral to the Upside I am looking for $2,000.00+ [Market closed at $1484.00 that day]
Commodities
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$GOLD Multi-Decade View: The target for this rally is $2200, which is resistance of its main bull channel from 1980. @AdamMancini4 1894.00
Commodities
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It could go there direct, but ideal is to pullback soon & create a "handle" below 2011's ATH which would build energy needed for a stronger, sustained breakout
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22-JUN-2020 :: Gold is a No Brainer targets $2,000.00
Commodities
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Interview with @Crescat_Capital's @TaviCosta Portfolio Manager via @RichTvAfrica
World Of Finance
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Brothers Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt attempted to corner the world silver markets in the late 1970s and early 1980s, at one stage holding the rights to more than half of the world's deliverable silver.
Commodities
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During the Hunts' accumulation of the precious metal, silver prices rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to nearly $50 an ounce in January 1980.[2]
Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later,[2] much of the fall occurring on a single day now known as Silver Thursday, due to changes made to exchange rules regarding the purchase of commodities on margin.[3]
“Hunt had a paranoid world view and it made sense to him to amass silver and hang on to it.”
Most traders buy and sell paper. The actual stuff represented by that paper is delivered to someone else. Hunt wanted the silver.
He chartered three 707 jet aircraft to haul the metal to warehouses in Switzerland and hired a dozen sharpshooting cowboys to provide security, according to Knight.
When he began buying silver with his brothers in 1973, it cost $2 an ounce and a big consumer was Eastman Kodak to make film.
Before the Hunts were through, seven years later, they’d stockpiled more than 200 million ounces, the price was soaring past $45 an ounce and regulators were preparing to take measures to make sure nothing like what Nelson Bunker Hunt had done would ever happen again.
“They broke the ascent by basically outlawing the buying of silver,” said Knight, who blogs at slopeofhope.com.
“Only liquidation orders would be accepted. It’s almost criminal what they did.”
On March 27, 1980 — what came to be known as “silver Thursday” — Comex asked Bache Group, the Hunts’ broker, for $134 million.
The three Hunt brothers had $4.5 billion in silver holdings, $3.5 billion of it profit, Knight said. But they didn’t have $134 million.
A $180 million judgment against them pushed the Hunts into bankruptcy.
All Bunker Hunt had left from his billions were a few million, a stable of racehorses and a $90 million tax bill to be paid over a 15-year period, Knight said.
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Crude Oil Chart INO 40.82
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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Emerging Economies Face Real Risk of ‘Submerging,’ Singapore Official Says @economics
Emerging Markets
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Emerging economies could see the gains they’ve made over recent decades unravel, with economic, social and political consequences for the rest of the world, according to a senior Singaporean official.
The warning from Tharman Shanmugaratnam, senior minister and economic adviser to Singapore’s prime minister, comes as the coronavirus pandemic has sent the global economy spiraling into its worst crisis since the Great Depression.
“When we think of the future of the world economy, it’s fundamentally about whether the emerging world is going to emerge or whether it’s going to submerge,” Tharman told an online conference Thursday organized by DBS Group Holdings Ltd.
“Everything from forced migration as well as the export of political extremism will become a reality if we see limited growth, and large numbers of people becoming unemployed, either formally or informally,” Tharman said.
“Consequences will be faced everywhere in the world.”
To avoid such a scenario, multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund will need to drive the economic response to the pandemic, he said.
The World Bank last month forecast emerging markets’ output to shrink for the first time in at least six decades.
The lender warned that the pandemic and worldwide recession will lead to increasing poverty in less-developed nations, as well as higher debt burdens.
The key focus of multilateral institutions and nations collectively is “how do we avoid the emerging world becoming a submerging world, because it’s going to affect the whole world,” Tharman said.
The Group of 20 leading economies has said it will decide later this year whether to extend the current suspension of debt payments for the poorest countries.
Speaking on the same panel, former Indian central banker Raghuram Rajan warned that many emerging countries will see the proportion of government debt to gross domestic product “skyrocket.”
Growth in these countries will have to be driven by external demand, and governments will have to think sensibly about the costs that the financial sector will have to bear, he said.
“The last thing you want, more than a corporate sector crisis, is a financial sector crisis,” he said.
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What’s certain is that the whole global economy has been hit by an insidious, literally invisible circuit breaker.
World Of Finance
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Policy Makers somehow still believe in their linear minds that more Free money, more Rate Cuts will resuscitate the Patient which is like a Patient anaesthetised on the Table.
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21-OCT-2019 :: "The New Economy of Anger".
World Of Finance
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People have been pushed to the edge and are taking to the streets.
Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics,
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot. Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.
Antonio Gramsci wrote, “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum, a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. now is the time of monsters.”
Ryszard Kapucinski also said: “If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not reassemble, we say the revolution is over.”
It is not over. More and more people are gathering in the Streets.
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We are staring into the abyss of a Zombie Apocalypse #COVID19
World Of Finance
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A Potemkin economy? Why Tanzania’s statistics look fishy @TheEconomist
Africa
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Democracy and economic freedom revived Tanzania. In 1995 the country held its first free elections in 30 years. As state controls were relaxed, investment flowed in. Steady growth more than doubled income per person between 1994 and 2010.
But John Magufuli, who was elected president in 2015, has turned back the clock on democracy by locking up opposition mps and journalists. He has also meddled capriciously in the economy.
His government has shaken down firms for cash, arresting their executives and holding them without bail if they do not pay up. It is “almost ransom”, says Peter Leon of Herbert Smith Freehills, an international law firm.
In 2018, when cashew farmers were unhappy with the market price for nuts, Mr Magufuli sent in the army with orders to buy up the crop for 65% more than private traders offered.
In the finest socialist traditions he did not pay the farmers for over 18 months. Since then the harvest has slumped by 30%. Farmers are reluctant to plant if they don’t expect to be paid.
Supporters of Mr Magufuli, who is running for re-election in October, argue that he gets things done—hence his nickname, the “bulldozer”.
They also point to Tanzania’s startling record of economic growth. This has been running at close to 7% a year for the past decade.
Tanzania has just crossed the World Bank’s threshold to become a middle-income country (ie, with an average income of more than $1,036 a year). Mr Magufuli boasts of achieving this goal five years earlier than planned.
Yet the growth numbers do not stack up. From about 2017 several other indicators, from tax revenue to lending to the private sector, have slowed sharply.
The imf raised doubts last year when it said there were “serious weaknesses” in the growth data.
It pointed out that public-sector wages, lending to the private sector and imports were all falling while tax revenue was growing only weakly.
The authors made it clear that the official 6.8% growth figure for 2017 was not credible. Publication of the report was blocked by the Tanzanian authorities. (The Economist has seen a copy.)
The fund has since backed down. It now reports, without caveat, Tanzania’s growth as 6.8% in 2017, 7% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019.
Jens Reinke, the imf’s new representative in Tanzania, says that although the fund makes its own forecasts, it relies on official data for historical figures.
“We’re not forensic accountants,” he says. Its latest health check in February has also not been published. The press release that usually accompanies these reports is positive.
Nonetheless, the concerns raised by the imf did not disappear like their report. Analysis by The Economist using the Tanzanian central bank’s own numbers for the most recent full fiscal year available (2018-19) shows that tax revenue has shrunk in real terms.
Discrepancies such as these, says Thorsten Beck of Cass Business School, are “red signals” that gdp may have been overestimated.
Public-sector wages and lending to the private sector, which had both been growing at well over 10% earlier in the decade, crept up by just 2% and 4% respectively (see chart).
The amount of money circulating, normally higher when the economy is booming and people need cash, had grown at 10% for several years earlier in the decade but has edged up by only 2% in 2019.
“The growth numbers are out of line with almost everything else we are seeing out of Tanzania,” says Justin Sandefur of the Centre for Global Development, a think-tank.
Tanzania’s recent growth ought to be evident in ordinary lives. When incomes rise, people buy more beer; yet revenue for Tanzania’s biggest brewer fell in 2018 and 2019.
According to door-to-door surveys done in 2012 and 2018, the share of Tanzanians who are extremely poor, 49%, did not change at all over the period. That is almost unheard of.
And because Tanzania’s population is growing, the number of extremely poor people has increased by about 4.5m.
Nonetheless, on June 8th Mr Magufuli declared Tanzania “coronavirus free”.
The government says the economy will grow by 5.5% in 2020. That would probably make Tanzania the best-performing economy in the world. The imf predicts a more modest 1.9%
With an election looming, the government’s economic record is facing fresh scrutiny.
Bernard Membe, a former foreign minister who has defected to the opposition, says growth is “exaggerated” and “in fact is less than 3%”. What about Tanzania’s middle-income status? “A very big joke,” says Mr Membe. ■
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The African @jairbolsonaro is of course @MagufuliJP
Law & Politics
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Brazil is a real time Laboratory experiment and the African @jairbolsonaro is of course @MagufuliJP
According to the African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Tanzania has conducted just 652 tests (as of 7 May).
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Was this a Super Spreading Event? Year of the Virus https://j.mp/3iVaxu7 @BBGAfrica #COVID19
Africa
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.@EximBankUS Out to Displace China After Record Loan in Africa @bpolitics
Africa
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The lender has just provided $4.7 billion to fund a Mozambican gas project -- the largest share of about $15 billion raised for the development.
The deal helped secure U.S. jobs and displaced earlier financing efforts by China and Russia, according to Stephen Renna, Exim’s chief banking officer.
“China is our competitor and one that we want to compete with to win,” he said.
“We do have a mandate from Congress to emphasize what we can do in sub-Saharan Africa so we’re clearly open for business there.”
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#EXIM Chief Banking Officer Stephen Renna signed initial agreements associated with the #Mozambique LNG Project @EximBankUS
Africa
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Once additional documents are finalized and conditions are satisfied, EXIM’s financing will support #export of $4.7B #USgoods and services from multiple states.
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10-DEC-2018 :: Huawei is the bloodstream of Africa’s telecom infrastructure. How this plays out in Africa is now an ‘’above the radar’’ issue.
Information & Communication Technology
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“This is sending a signal that there is a new game” said Dennis Wilder
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200m long empty table with a 1000seats in Wellington, #CapeTown to raise awareness of the job lost within the tourism industry due to the lockdown @ezaap
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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22-MAR-2020 :: Tourism is stopped out in 2020 #COVID19 [I feel behavior and consumption of Tourism is set to change more permanently]
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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Over 769,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases on the African continent - with more than 435,000 recoveries & 16,000 deaths. @WHOAFRO
Misc.
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It took 123 days to go from the first case of #coronavirus to 250,000 confirmed cases Africa. From 250,000 to 500,000 21 days. From 500,000 to 750,000 14 days
Africa
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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19
Africa
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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19 and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said
’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone.
“Our pandemic is getting full speed.”
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South Africa’s excess deaths surge as virus like ‘wildfire’ @AP #COVID19
Africa
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Global hot spot South Africa is seeing a “huge discrepancy” between confirmed COVID-19 deaths and much higher excess deaths from natural causes, while Africa’s top health official says the coronavirus is spreading there “like wildfire.”
A new report by the South African Medical Research Council, released late Wednesday, shows more than 17,000 excess deaths in South Africa from May 6 to July 14
South Africa is “very concerning,” the director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong, told reporters Thursday.
And now other African countries are becoming a problem, notably Kenya, where Nkengasong said cases have “taken off very, very quickly.”
East Africa’s commercial hub now has more than 14,000 confirmed cases.
Local transmission of the virus has begun in many countries across the continent, and once it is seeded in vulnerable communities such as slums it “spreads like wildfire, which is what we’re seeing in South Africa now,” Nkengasong said.
The true number of cases in Africa is unknown, as shown by the new report in South Africa, the continent’s most developed country.
“Community deaths, we just don’t know how countries are capturing that,” Nkengasong said.
Africa’s case fatality rate in this pandemic remains relatively low at just over 2%, but that measure is weakened if authorities don’t know the real number of deaths.The World Health Organization said Thursday more than 10,000 health workers have been infected in its African region, which is largely sub-Saharan Africa.
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South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa #COVID19
Africa
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South Africa, the +- 139 days since day ZERO @Slipcatch
Africa
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Number of days per every 100,000 cases in South Africa • 1st 100,000 = 110 days • 2nd 100,000 = 14 days • 3rd 100,000 = 9 days • 4th 100,000 = 8 days @rid1tweets
Africa
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The Eastern Cape again they phone their house doctor, the doctor tells them what to do and what to buy but key what he tells them: DON'T GO TO THE HOSPITAL. JUST DON'T. @Slipcatch
Africa
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The Eastern Cape again A East London man and wife both tested positive for covid. The wife start struggling with her breathing, they phone their house doctor, the doctor tells them what to do and what to buy but key what he tells them: DON'T GO TO THE HOSPITAL. JUST DON'T.
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Interesting fact from @media_hack: Excess deaths in Nelson Mandela Bay up to 14 July is 1027, but only 136 Covid deaths were reported in that metro. Difference = 891. @miamalan
Africa
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Africa is now accelerating off a Low base
Africa
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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases continent
Africa
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The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.
There was a lot of FOX News level, mathematically illiterate magical thinking about Africa and how it was going to dodge a ''Silver Bullet''
That thinking is now debunked. Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world.
Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!
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Country likely to double #coronavirus #COVID19 #COVID_19 cases in the next 2 days? @VoiceToData
Africa
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VIDEO: 🇿🇦 Aerial footage shows funerals under way at the Olifantsvlei Cemetery in #Soweto @AFP
Africa
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South Africa has recorded a jump of nearly 60% in numbers of natural deaths in recent weeks, suggesting a much higher toll of coronavirus-related fatalities than officially reported
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Each man's death diminishes me, For I am involved in mankind. Therefore, send not to know For whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee. #COVID19
Africa
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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa
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The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?
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South African Reserve Bank Cut Benchmark Repo Rate To 3.50% From 3.75% @LiveSquawk
World Of Finance
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The cut brought the main lending rates to 3.50% and followed a previous 275 bps of cuts this year to try to cushion the impact of COVID-19
World Of Finance
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The bank also cut its 2020 forecast for gross domestic product, to a contraction of 7.3% from the 7% predicted in May.
The easing of South Africa’s lockdown “has supported growth in recent weeks and high frequency activity indicators show a pickup in spending from extremely low levels,” he added.
The bank forecast average consumer price growth of 3.4% this year and 4.3% next, and said it expected GDP to expand 3.7% in 2021.
The rate cut decision boosted the rand and government bonds.
Chief Africa economist at Standard Chartered, Razia Khan, said the bank’s statement was hawkish, but it was unclear whether the bank had reached the end of its easing cycle.
“A lot of monetary accommodation has been provided, but the impact of that is difficult to gauge, given the lockdown. In our view, this leaves open the likelihood of further easing, should inflation remain benign and growth weak,” she said.
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5 March 2020 Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
Africa
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We are staring into the abyss of a Zombie Apocalypse #COVID19
Africa
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02-MAR-2020 :: Balance Sheets are maxed out
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
World Of Finance
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 16.76
World Currencies
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 15.9835
World Currencies
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Kenya, where Nkengasong said cases have “taken off very, very quickly.” @AP #COVID19
Misc.
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And now other African countries are becoming a problem, notably Kenya, where Nkengasong said cases have “taken off very, very quickly.” East Africa’s commercial hub now has more than 14,000 confirmed cases.
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BREAKING: Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases hits 15,601 after 796 more test positive from 6,754 samples tested in the last 24 hours, Health Ministry says @citizentvkenya
Misc.
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Out of 6,754 samples tested in the last 24 hours, 796 people have tested positive for the disease. #KomeshaCorona @SpokespersonGoK
Africa
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This brings to 15,601 the number of positive cases in the country so far, pushing our cumulative samples tested to 261,027.
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 107.70
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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TPS Eastern Africa Plc - Profit Warning Announcement year ending 31 December 2020. @tradingroomke
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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TPS @serenahotels share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Price: 13.45 Market Capitalization: $22.718m EPS:0.69 PE:19.493
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June 11, 2012 The Serena @SerenaHotels
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the managing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager.
I was then a teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at table tennis, in a bikini. That table tennis Table is still there.
The Serena brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds me of happy joyful carefree halcyon days of youth.
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May 21, 2017 Good Morning from the sea side @serenahotels Mombasa @MagicalKenya
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Riding along the Shore Lake Elmentaita @SerenaHotels
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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The Polana is a Jewel in the Serena’s Crown. As Jorge Luis Borges said, “the mind was dreaming. The world was its dream.”
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Lourenço Marques founded a settlement here in 1544 and when Mozambique gained independence from Portugal in 1975, the city was renamed in honour of Maputa, a legendary chief.
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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