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Thursday 30th of July 2020
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Conclusions Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00 Gold $2,200+ Silver $50.00+ EM a Sell [on rallies] Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance
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24-FEB-2020 :: a “V- shaped” recovery #COVID19 [is a FANTASY]
World Of Finance
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Rates floored @DavidInglesTV
World Of Finance
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The V-shaped recovery is simply not happening. @dlacalle_IA
World Of Finance
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We have been following all high-frequency data published by Bloomberg and the flattening of the recovery is obvious.
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What’s certain is that the whole global economy has been hit by an insidious, literally invisible circuit breaker #COVID19
World Of Finance
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22-JUN-2020 :: The FED WILL KEEP ON PRINTING THEY HAVE ONLY JUST GOTTEN STARTED
U.S. Economy
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Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus #COVID19
U.S. Economy
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The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved #COVID19
World Of Finance
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No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud Immunor & St Georges University of London
Misc.
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#COVID19 exponential growth observed across all countries in the world at a relatively consistent rate. @jmlukens
Misc.
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The staggered start date of community spread may simply be a measure of country’s relative isolation to initial outbreaks in #China, #Iran, #Italy, then #USA, etc..
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24-FEB-2020 :: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
World Of Finance
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We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance
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The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
World Of Finance
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Sunrise in Lodwar. Photo by David Chancellor @kenyapics
Africa
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Magical Amboseli. Photo by Krishna Kumar @kenyapics
Africa
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''You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”
Africa
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Ostrich and Elephants Amboseli @alykhansatchu
Africa
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Elephants in the Amboseli
Africa
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Footage shows pilgrims perform tawaaf (going round the Ka'ba) and maintaining social distancing amid Coronavirus restrictions. @AhmedKosar1
Misc.
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The Way We Live Now
World Of Finance
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LE SPIAGGE PIÙ BELLE D’ITALIA_THE MOST BEAUTIFUL ITALIAN BEACHES: BAIA DEL BUON DORMIRE , CAMPANIA @Scuolazzurri1
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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@jpmorgan publishes a readout of a conference call it hosted about the 2020 election. @carlquintanilla
World Of Finance
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward
World Of Finance
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U.S. Forces’ Chief Pledges to Help Japan With Chinese Ships @bpolitics
Law & Politics
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“Beijing through the PLA continues to take aggressive and malign actions in the East China Sea and the South China Sea,” Schneider said.
“In the South China Sea, they continue to bully partners, neighbors and others who have legitimate claims to territories, islands and features.”
In a white paper published earlier this month, Japan’s Defense Ministry expressed “grave concern” over Beijing’s actions in the East China Sea.
U.S. support will take the form of “information, surveillance and reconnaissance capability to help the government of Japan assess the situation,” Schneider told reporters.
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward it has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment
World Of Finance
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China’s Xi Sets His Sights on Taiwan After Subduing Hong Kong @BW H/T @realKunalAShah
Law & Politics
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Ever since Mao Zedong triumphed in 1949, prompting his Nationalist enemies to flee to Taiwan, Communist Party leaders have bolstered their legitimacy to rule by taming rebellious corners of China’s vast periphery.
The quest to capture lost territory prompted Mao’s army to subdue Tibet, where cadres co-opted Buddhist monasteries and eventually built a railway that ensured well-supplied garrisons of troops across the Himalayan plateau.
He also reclaimed Xinjiang in the far west, a Muslim desert region the size of Iran where Silk Road traders once crossed paths with Uighurs—who have now been reduced to about 30% of the population of their own homeland after millions of China’s dominant Han ethnicity moved in.
The U.K. handed over Hong Kong in 1997, and Portugal followed two years later with Macao.
Xi Jinping has consolidated control in all of these places since taking power in 2012 and bolstered Beijing’s hold on disputed reefs in the South China Sea.
Most notably, he set up a vast police state in Xinjiang that sent Muslims en masse to reeducation camps, and just in July he imposed a sweeping national security law in Hong Kong aimed at stamping out dissent in a city that many in the West once hoped would spur China to embrace democracy.
“What China is doing now is continuing to ramp up preparedness to solve the Taiwan issue,” Wu said. “We are very concerned that China will target Taiwan now that the Hong Kong security law’s been passed.”
Worries are also growing in the U.S., where both parties are increasingly united in viewing China’s rise as a threat to the free world.
On July 23, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said “securing our freedoms from the Chinese Communist Party is the mission of our time,”.
Xi said, “We make no promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary means.”
He declared that “China must and will be united, which is an inevitable requirement for the historical rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era.”
How a war would play out is the subject of much debate. China’s population of 1.4 billion dwarfs Taiwan’s 23 million, and its total defense expenditures are estimated to be 25 times greater.
Hu Xijin, the editor-in-chief of the Communist Party’s Global Times newspaper, said in July that China wants peace but “is fully capable of destroying all of Taiwan’s military installations within a few hours, before seizing the island shortly after.”
Consequently, the United States would only need to tip the scales of the battle to foil a Chinese invasion.”
Xi’s proposal to use Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” model for unification is so unpopular in Taiwan that even the Kuomintang, the main China-friendly opposition party and the rump organization of the Nationalists who fled Mao, has rejected it.“And Taiwan will be at the front line of China’s pressure now that Hong Kong is no longer a buffer.”And in July, a spokesman for China’s defense ministry put the blame on the U.S. for the increased tensions, saying its leaders frequently play the “Taiwan card” and want to undermine China’s sovereignty by “salami slicing.”
That evocation of the “two China” policy hails Taipei as a viable democratic alternative to Beijing. It also raises the issue of a formal declaration of Taiwan’s independence, a red line for the mainland that would likely trigger an invasion.
“China has moved toward Hong Kong first and Taiwan’s next,” says Tung Li-wen, a consultant for Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, which oversees the island’s relations with Beijing. “But China’s ambition is not only Taiwan. It’s all of Asia—and the whole world.” —
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward it has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment Matters India Taiwan South China Sea et al
World Of Finance
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The ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ Strategy all point at more intensity rather than less.
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02-JUN-2020 :: The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
World Of Finance
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“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!”
Law & Politics
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I am sure Xi sees Hong Kong and Taiwan like a virus and he is looking to impose a quarantine just like he has imposed on Xinjiang.
Law & Politics
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The Chinese Dream has become a nightmare at the boundaries of the Han Empire.
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The World in the 21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
Law & Politics
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America and China Are Entering the Dark Forest @bopinion @nfergus
Law & Politics
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The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him.
[In fact, the Truth of the Matter, is this. If the US were serious about repelling the Chinese advance then it is a Now or Never moment]
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Last week, the US China ‘’Tit for Tat’’ went ‘’Rat a Tat Tat’’
Law & Politics
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Geopolitically speaking we have entered ‘’a furin cleavage site’’ moment
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27-JUL-2020 :: US Allies much derided by President Trump are falling into line.
Law & Politics
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Australia Joins U.S. in Opposing Beijing’s South China Sea Claim @bpolitics
Law & Politics
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Australia joined the U.S. in rejecting China’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea, calling them “inconsistent” with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
“There is no legal basis for China to draw straight baselines connecting the outermost points of maritime features or ‘island groups’ in the South China Sea,” Australia’s mission to the UN wrote in a filing on Friday.
“Australia rejects China’s claim to ‘historic rights’ or ‘maritime rights and interests’ as established in the ‘long course of historical practice’ in the South China Sea.”
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A Chinese H-6K bomber patrolling islands and reefs including Huangyan Dao in the South China Sea. Photo: Xinhua @globaltimesnews 27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid
Law & Politics
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"This isn’t about containment. It’s about a complex new challenge we’ve never faced before'' @SecPompeo
Law & Politics
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Niall Ferguson said that failure of this dam would eclipse COVID as a news story for 2020. Said that failure of this dam would sweep Shanghai off the map. @UrbanKaoboy
Law & Politics
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𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐞 (𝐨𝐫 𝐃𝐚𝐦) 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐬 @man_integrated
Law & Politics
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1,000 km upriver from Shanghai and the mouth of the Yangtze Delta sits a marvel of modern mega-engineering: The Three Gorges Dam. It might be about to collapse. What happens if it does?
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Drinking The Kool Aid
World Of Finance
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Globally, there is an average of 250,000 new cases every day. @TetotRemi
Misc.
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The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Misc.
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As per our model trajectory, we should reach the 20 million cases mark around August 6th.. @TetotRemi
Misc.
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In Europe, new cases are rapidly increasing. On July 6th, Europe was averaging less than 2,000 daily cases; by July 28th, Europe is averaging 4,500 daily cases @TetotRemi
Misc.
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13-JUL-2020 :: Year of the Virus
World Of Finance
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This heatmap shows the trend of daily growth in confirmed cases for some major countries. India has the highest 3-day growth rate in the group, while Mexico has the highest hit ratio @ExanteData
Misc.
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10-MAY-2020 :: #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Misc.
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―They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.
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In the US, daily cases have plateaued....@TetotRemi
Misc.
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US daily deaths keep increasing, averaging more than 1,000 deaths per day...@TetotRemi
Misc.
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance
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“Everybody, everybody everywhere, has his own movie going, his own scenario, and everybody is acting his movie out like mad, only most people don’t know that is what they’re trapped by, their little script.” ― Tom Wolfe, The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test
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The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis
Law & Politics
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A truth that’s told with bad intent Beats all the lies you can invent. - William Blake @EpsilonTheory
Law & Politics
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22-JUN-2020 :: Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
World Of Finance
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No matter what there will be a vaccine announcement prior to the US election. @northmantrader
Law & Politics
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Moderna Vaccine Protects 16 Monkeys From Virus; 30,000 Humans Await @business
Misc.
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Moderna Inc.’s vaccine candidate against Covid-19 protected against the virus in a trial that inoculated 16 monkeys, an encouraging step on the path to a defense for humans against the pandemic.
Two injections of the vaccine protected against heavy exposure to the virus at two different levels of dosage, Moderna said in findings published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The primates didn’t show any sign of creating enhanced disease, a problem that has occasionally been associated with vaccines.
The results, if they hold up in humans, suggest that the vaccine may be able to protect against Covid-19 in both the upper and lower airways.
in all the monkeys who got the high doses of the vaccine, no viral replication was detectable in their noses two days after being challenged with the virus, according to the study results.
And no viral replication was seen in the lung fluid of 7 of 8 animals in both dose groups after being challenged with the virus.
All 16 monkeys showed at least some sign of protection, with limited lung inflammation seen in the lungs of both groups.
While the data is encouraging, a far bigger test is under way for Moderna, involving 30,000 humans. The phase 3 trial to determine the safety and efficacy of the vaccine will begin producing data in November or December.
The vaccine uses messenger RNA, a synthetic form of genetic material from the virus designed to nudge the body’s immune system into attack mode. The U.S. government is providing $955 million to help fund the vaccine’s development.
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Just out @NEJM : results of @moderna_tx vaccine in hon-human primate infection model: @erictopol
Misc.
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Moderna's vaccine protected 16 monkeys from getting the virus. Next up? We'll see if it does the same for 30,000 humans. @DavidInglesTV
Misc.
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I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory #COVID19
Misc.
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Vaccines based on “zoonosis” is doomed to fail. No animal ACE2 approach even half of hACE2. The same vaccine that work on monkeys will cause catastrophic ADE damage on real humans! @flavinkins
Misc.
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.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros
Misc.
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“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”
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How to Hold Beijing Accountable for the Coronavirus Why did China cover up the epidemic? @WSJ @JamieMetzl
China
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If a country accidentally launched a nuclear missile killing more than 650,000 people, world leaders would at least demand a comprehensive and immediate investigation into what happened to make sure it didn’t occur again.
But as evidence grows that the equally deadly Covid-19 pandemic may stem from a Wuhan virology lab’s accidental leak followed by a Chinese government coverup, most politicians across the globe have been strangely silent.
Unless policy makers understand the novel coronavirus’s origins, the world remains vulnerable to an even deadlier pandemic in the future.
The closest known relative to SARS-CoV-2 is a virus sampled by Chinese researchers from six miners infected while working in a bat-infested cave in southern China in 2012.
These miners developed symptoms we now associate with Covid-19. Half of them died.
These viral samples were then taken to the Wuhan Institute of Virology—the only facility in China that’s a biosafety Level 4 laboratory, the highest possible safety designation.
The Level 4 designation is reserved for facilities dealing with the most dangerous pathogens. Wuhan is more than 1,000 miles north of Yunnan province, where the cave is located.
Suggesting that an outbreak of a deadly bat coronavirus coincidentally occurred near the only level 4 virology institute in all of China—which happened to be studying the closest known relative of that exact virus—strains credulity.
Above all, China’s extensive coverup raises red flags. In the critical first weeks after the initial outbreak,
When a courageous Chinese biologist posted the sequenced genome of the virus online, his lab was immediately shut “for rectification.”
“China has continued to run a global disinformation campaign to deflect blame for the outbreak of the pandemic.”
If the deaths of so many people around the world were traced to a lab accident and coverup, the consequences within China and globally would be monumental.
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The P4 laboratory on the campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, China, May 27. PHOTO: HECTOR RETAMAL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
China
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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.
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However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, @PeterDaszak said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.” @thesundaytimes
Misc.
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.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros
China
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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The market's response to Fed Chair Powell: Yields on 2 & 5-year Treasuries fall to new lows @lisaabramowicz1
U.S. Economy
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The Year of the Virus I expect the US Curve out to 10 Years to be negative by Year End
U.S. Economy
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1760
Dollar Index 93.517
Japan Yen 105.05
Swiss Franc 0.9133
Pound 1.2982
Aussie 0.7145
India Rupee 74.8225
South Korea Won 1194.355
Brazil Real 5.1703
Egypt Pound 15.9674
South Africa Rand 16.7692
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Range of expectations for 2Q US GDP today highest on record (standard deviation 3.09% versus 0.16% last quarter). It's anyone's guess where GDP prints today. @VPatelFX
U.S. Economy
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$DXY @jfhksar88 93.517 [Target < 90.00]
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1757
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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$GC $GC_F $GOLD $GLD @BURDVNK 1957.00 [Target > $2200]
Commodities
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid PRECIOUS METALS TURN VIRAL
Commodities
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Precious metals spiking for some reason @ClarityToast
Commodities
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24-FEB-2020 I would venture Gold is correlated to the #Coronavirus which is set to turn parabolic and is already non linear and exponential ~ or as that great French Thinker Paul Virilio described it ~ has “escape velocity”
Commodities
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22-MAR-2020 :: I believe Gold will soon turn viral to the Upside I am looking for $2,000.00+ [Market closed at $1484.00 that day]
Commodities
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Gold $1800-$1900: 5 Days $1700-$1800: 121 Days $1600-$1700: 61 Days $1500-$1600: 155 Days $1400-$1500: 43 Days $1300-$1400: 1228 Days @Convertbond
Commodities
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27-JAN-2020 :: “But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola.''
World Of Finance
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“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’
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22-JUN-2020 :: Gold is a No Brainer targets $2,000.00
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 40.85
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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We are witnessing a Spill Over into EM and Frontier Geographies
Emerging Markets
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Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative
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#India high #COVID19 death total and fast increase in new deaths a very ominous sign. @jmlukens
Misc.
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India is now averaging more than 45,000 daily cases...@TetotRemi
Misc.
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Brazil is still averaging more than 45,000 daily cases...@TetotRemi
Misc.
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#Brazil #COVID19 death total at 88.5k second highest in world and most in #SouthAmerica. #Peru registered 4.6k new deaths past week bringing total to 18.4k. @jmlukens
Misc.
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#Columbia deaths fast increasing and about to pass #Chile. #Argentina & #Bolivia deaths exponentially increasing.
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''Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer'' @jairbolsonaro
Misc.
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#Columbia has fastest growing #COVID19 outbreak in #SouthAmerica followed by #Argentina, #Venezuela, & #CostaRica. #Brazil making progress slowing rate of new infections. @jmlukens
Misc.
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A virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.
Misc.
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Very interesting chart produced by Johns Hopkins China-Africa Research Institute. It shows that #China's financial ties to #Africa are much more concentrated than assumed @SamRamani2
Africa
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Very interesting chart produced by Johns Hopkins China-Africa Research Institute. It shows that #China's financial ties to #Africa are much more concentrated than assumed, with #Angola leading the way by a decisive margin.
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19-APR-2020 :: The End of Vanity China Africa Win Win
Africa
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China Promotes Its Party-Army Model in Africa @AfricaACSS @PNantulya
China
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Chinese government, which is often described as a “party state” (dǎng guó, 黨國).
As China deepens its ties to African militaries, including through training and education initiatives, Beijing brings its perspective on party-army relations. The venues through which it does this have been growing steadily in the past decade.
For example, under its China-Africa Action Plan 2018-2021, China receives 60,000 African students annually, which surpasses both the United States and United Kingdom.
China provides an additional 50,000 professional training opportunities and 50,000 government fellowships to African public servants. Around 5,000 slots go to military professionals, up from 2,000 under its 2015-2018 Plan.
“What emerges from this model is what China’s leaders call a party-army whose primary duty is the survival of the ruling party.”
China’s National Defense University and National University of Defense Technology are the upper tier of China’s PME, admitting more than 300 foreign officers annually, mostly from developing countries, with African officers constituting slightly under 60 percent.
African officers also attend the PLA’s political schools, which provide training on the mechanisms China’s ruling party uses to exercise control over the military, including through the political commissar system.
Angola, Algeria, Cabo Verde, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe have all adopted various forms of this Maoist model of fusing the ruling party and military.
The PLA political schools also provide a venue for military officers and senior civilian officials to tailor the Chinese experience in political and ideological training to their own military establishments.
They include the Kunming National Cadres Academy, Pudong Cadre College, and PLA Nanjing Political College. Additionally, hundreds of “militants”—party loyalists with weapons training but no formal military ranks—have trained in these schools.
Many political parties, such as Burundi’s ruling Council for the Defense of Democracy/Forces for the Defense of Democracy, use these party militants as part of their enforcement machinery.
Versions of China’s politico-military schools have been adopted in a range of African contexts, reflecting shared traditions with many of Africa’s liberation movements.
They include Uganda’s Oliver Tambo Leadership Academy, a politico-military school built on the former military base of South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) during apartheid; Ethiopia’s Political School in Tatek; Namibia’s SWAPO School in Windhoek; and the ANC’s planned Political School in Venterskroon.
In 2018, the Communist Party’s International Liaison Office provided $45 million toward building the Mwalimu Nyerere Leadership Academy in Tanzania, an ideological school modeled on the Pudong Cadre College that will train civilian and military cadres from the Former Liberation Movements of Southern Africa (FLMSA) once completed.
Meeting at a summit every three years, FLMSA consists of the ruling liberation movements of Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, all of which were trained by the PLA during their liberation struggles.
Experience has shown that embedding the Chinese approach of integrating the military into party politics is fraught with risks. Nowhere is this more evident than in Zimbabwe.
On November 16, 2017, flanked by all 60 members of Zimbabwe’s top brass, then Chief of Defense (now Vice President) Constantine Chiwenga warned the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) about internal infighting.
“It is pertinent to restate that the Zimbabwe Defense Forces remain the major stakeholder in respect to the gains of the liberation struggle and when these are threatened we are obliged to take corrective measures!” A day later, the army took control of key state institutions.
Chiwenga was more than a military chief. He once headed ZANU-PF’s Political Commissariat. Like other senior Zimbabwean officers and his Chinese counterparts, he was deeply embedded in the party’s workings.
This institutional arrangement is known in ZANU-PF as “politics shall always lead the gun,” the Zimbabwean adaptation of Chinese ideological principles.
ZANU-PF’s real power came from its Political Commissariat, which was historically staffed by generals.
In the end, they unseated him and installed their preferred successor, current President Emmerson Mnangagwa.
The Maoist model of party-army relations has developed and is implemented in different forms across the continent. For example, Angola’s ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola still conducts “patriotic ideological education” at all levels of the armed forces to ensure party loyalty.
Angolan President João Lourenço is himself a former Political Commissar. So are Mozambique’s former presidents Joaquim Chissano and Armando Guebuza, and former Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete.
In Mozambique, senior leaders—including the defense minister—sit on the Central Committee of the ruling Frelimo party and its inner sanctum, the Political Commission. Frelimo uses “brigades”—seasoned party and military veterans—to conduct mass political education and ensure party loyalty across the state and government.
Headed by a Deputy Chief of Staff, South Sudan’s Office for Political and Moral Orientation instills the ruling SPLM ideology throughout the uniformed services, a replica of the PLA’s Political Work Department and Uganda’s Political Commissariat.
In Uganda, a Chief Political Commissar supervises political commissars across the military. The current Commissar, Brigadier General Henry Matsiko, explains that the uniqueness of Uganda’s military lies in “political clarity and having an ideology guiding the work of this mighty force.”
All were authored by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, who, during a visit to Mao Zedong’s birthplace in Hunan in June 2019, said, “Revolutionaries come to Hunan like Catholics go to Rome.”The persistence and sense of entitlement by Africa’s liberation movements, however, is at the heart of many of Africa’s conflicts, political crises, and stalled democratic transitions.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping inspects the military guard of honour during his state visit to South Africa at the Union Buildings in Pretoria in 2015. (Photo: GovernmentZA)
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Rwandan President Kagame received by President Xi Jinping of China. (Photo: President Kagame)
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The epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Africa. So far 871,970 cases reported.- @JNkengasong @AfricaCDC @africa_com
Africa
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Africa is entering a Fast Growth ‘’escape’’ velocity Phase #COVID19
Africa
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It took 123 days to go from the first case of #coronavirus to 250,000 confirmed cases Africa. From 250,000 to 500,000 21 days. From 500,000 to 750,000 14 days
Africa on track to pass 1 million diagnosed #COVID19 cases shortly @jmlukens
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The number of COVID 19 tests performed in Africa is over 8.3 million. - @JNkengasong @AfricaCDC @Africa_com
Africa
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Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on
Africa
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Over 870,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases on the African continent - with more than 520,000 recoveries & almost 18,500 deaths. @WHOAFRO
Africa
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COVID Deaths: We see that Kenya, and Iran had fresh peaks today but Peru and Ethiopia have shown the greatest acceleration in deaths w-o-w. #CoronaVirusUpdates #coronavirus @ExanteData
Africa
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On Saturday, the African continent recorded its highest single-day number of confirmed #covid19 cases so far. Over 21,000. @Covid_Africa
Africa
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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19
Africa
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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19 and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said
’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone.
“Our pandemic is getting full speed.”
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South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa #COVID19
Africa
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South Africa #COVID19 UPDATE 29 July • 42,528 tests conducted. • Daily positivity rate = 26.7% • 11,362 new cases. Daily doubling rate = 28 days • 240 more deaths @id1tweets
Africa
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• 10,654 additional recoveries
• Active cases = 165,659
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#SouthAfrica new #COVID19 cases down past three days. Still on trajectory to 1M cases by end of August unless growth rate further reduced. @jmlukens
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SA daily deaths are trending higher...@TetotRemi
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Another big increase in excess deaths in South Africa this week -- now estimated at more than 22,000 excess deaths estimated excess deaths from May 6 to July 21. @geoffreyyork
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“South Africa may unfortunately be a precursor,” @DrMikeRyan said. “It may be a warning for what will happen in the rest of Africa.” @WHO @VOANews
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Africa is now accelerating off a Low base
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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases
Africa
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The number of confirmed cases in Africa has been rising by about 30% a week over the past month, but is set to incline steeply now.
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world.
Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster then BOOM!
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#Coronavirus reportedly takes the life of the agriculture minister in #Zimbabwe @RencapMan Lands and Agriculture Minister Perrance Shiri has died from Covid-19 aged of 65 @/zimlive
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COVID19 is the most powerful offensive weapon witnessed in the c21st. It exploits weaknesses like a deadly Karmic assassin
Africa
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There are plenty of Merchants of Propaganda in the matter of #COVID19 spanning Nobel Prize Winners Drinking the Kool-Aid
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Virus toll surges in Madagascar, land of COVID 'cure' @AFP @YahooNews
Africa
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Antananarivo (AFP) - Ambulance sirens wail almost incessantly, the hospitals are swamped and the sports stadium has been turned into a 250-bed field hospital.
Antananarivo, the capital of Madagascar, is grappling with a flood of coronavirus cases -- a surge starkly at odds with the country's flamboyant claim to have devised a herbal cure for COVID-19.
On Tuesday, the impoverished Indian Ocean island passed the symbolic threshold of 10,000 recorded cases, 93 of which have been fatal.
Today, the caseload is rising by between 300 and 400 each day, nearly triple or quadruple that of a few weeks ago.
The authorities have several explanations for the phenomenon. One is that a rise in testing has uncovered more positive cases. A second is that infections are being driven by the capital's dense population.
And then there is a third explanation: that people fell sick because they failed to drink Covid-Organics -- the concoction, also called CVO, that President Andry Rajoelina is controversially pitching as a cure for the virus.
"The number of cases is rising more and more... We are only admitting the seriously ill," the director of the city's Andohotapenaka Hospital, Nasolotsiry Raveloson, told AFP.
Health Minister Ahmad Ahmad sounded the alarm last week -- but at a political cost to himself.
He sent out a letter to international aid donors, saying the trend was now "very critical... with notable flare-ups in certain regions, particularly in Antananarivo."
Urgent needs included 337 ventilators, 2.3 million face masks, 697,000 pairs of gloves, 533,200 medical blouses as well as oxygen bottles.
The government reacted tartly, describing the appeal as "a personal initiative", taken "without consulting" either the government or Rajoelina.
"It is clear that many crucial points in the management of this health crisis have escaped the vigilance of the minister of public health," it said scathingly.
- Presidential push -
CVO was launched to the world in April by Rajoelina himself.
"This herbal tea gives results in seven days," he said, sipping a dose. "I will be the first to drink this today, in front of you, to show you that this product cures and does not kill."
The drink is prepared with artemisia, a plant with proven efficacy in malaria treatment.
But there is no scientific evidence to back the claims -- and a host of medical experts, led by the World Health Organization (WHO) and US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), have loudly warned of the risk of taking concoctions that have not been vetted for safety.
Many in Madagascar clearly have doubts of their own.
"To see whether CVO works, all you have do to is look at the number of cases," said Mirato Rabearson Mahefamanana, a general practitioner. "Why are there so many right now?"
Former education minister Paul Rabary told AFP he had scrupulously drunk CVO -- and still caught the virus.
"I consulted four private doctors, and none of them prescribed me with Covid-Organics."
Marcel Razafimahatratra, a sociologist, said: "If I am unfortunate enough to catch this disease, I prefer to be treated by doctors who don't use CVO."
- Less visible -
Yvonne Ravaoalisoa, a 60-year-old trader who lives with her two nieces, disagreed.
"Since we've been taking CVO, none of us at home has fallen sick," she said.
Opposition MP Liantso Bina Andriamanjato is also a fan. "It's a simple but effective remedy, which cured me," he insisted.
After its blockbuster introduction, CVO was sold in retail outlets, given to schoolchildren and distributed to health centres, although its visibility has discreetly declined in recent weeks.
Madagascar dispatched the drink to several African countries, but doubt about its claims prevail there too.
In the Republic of Congo, "test results point towards limited effectiveness," said Alexis Elira Dokekias, a senior official in charge of coronavirus admissions.
In Nigeria, the national drugs watchdog found no evidence of curative properties, according to the health ministry, and stocks of the drink sent by Madagascar remain in storage.
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Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”
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Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.” Angela Merkel
The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.
political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis
I was reading Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah which sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period.
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.
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(MOHCDGEC) in Tanzania has reported the country’s first case of COVID-19 on 16 March 2020. Tanzania mainland last reported a confirmed case on 29 April 2020. #COVID19 in #Africa @WHOAFRO
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The African @jairbolsonaro is of course @MagufuliJP
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@MagufuliJP #COVID19 was equivalent to “Satan” and that it would naturally be defeated with prayer, since “Satan cannot reside in the body of Christ.” 27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid
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Governor Dessie said Ethiopia will adopt a floating exchange rate. The crawling peg has delivered excessive real appreciation, even compared to many hard pegs. @SergiLanauIIF
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Without a more floating rate, wide current account deficits will be a perennial problem.
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Our expectations for #SouthAfrica debt path @UgrasUlkuIIF @BHilgenstockIIF @elinaribakova
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.@StandardBankZA said that its half-year profit could drop by as much as 50% as the coronavirus crisis hits its business @ReutersAfrica
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Its headline earnings per share - the main profit measure in South Africa - for the six months to June 30 would likely fall by between 30% and 50%, compared to the 837.4 cents it reported in the same period last year, it said in a trading update.
“The group remained well capitalised and liquid,” it continued.
South African lenders, which managed to shield themselves from the more devastating impact of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, are now facing one of their biggest ever hits to profits as a result of the pandemic.
South Africa’s economy, already in recession, is forecast to decline by over 7% this year, according to the central bank, and the Banking Association of South Africa has warned problem loans could rise to their highest ever level of 10%.
Standard Bank did however say it is set to benefit from a bigger than expected gain on the sale of its 20% stake in ICBC Argentina to the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, thanks to the slump in South Africa’s rand.
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 16.76378
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 15.97
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
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Unfortunately about 1/3 of all jobs in #Africa both formal and informal could be affected by Covid-19. - @achaleke @Africa_com
Africa
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We are staring into the abyss of a Zombie Apocalypse #COVID19
Africa
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02-MAR-2020 :: Balance Sheets are maxed out
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Africa's GDP growth could decline between 4PP and 9PP. @achaleke @Africa_com
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5 March 2020 Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
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Life sure comes at you fast @roomthinker
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.@EABL_PLC EABL reports FY 2020 EPS -53.962% Earnings No Final Dividend
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Par Value: 2/-
Closing Price: 163.00
Total Shares Issued: 790774356.00
Market Capitalization: 128,896,220,028
EPS: 5.17
PE: 31.528
FY through 30th June 2020 versus 30th June 2019
FY Revenue 74.916259b versus 82.543241b -9.23%
FY Gross Profit 33.020030b versus 38.117137b -13.372%
FY Selling and Distribution Costs [6.590629b] versus [7.209400b]
FY Admin Expenses [8.565240b] versus [9.398222b]
FY Other Expenses [3.382811b] versus [0.322889b]
Finance Costs [3.900964b] versus [3.492577b]
FY Profit before Income Tax 10.655259b versus 17.814650b -40.188%
FY Profit After Tax 7.020915b versus 11.515130b -39.028%
FY EPS 5.17 versus 11.23 -53.962%
No Dividend
Company Commentary
East African Breweries Limited (EABL) recorded a 9% decline in net sales for the financial year ended 30 June 2020, as first half growth of 10% was offset by a 29% decline in the second half.
Kenya: Declined 14% versus prior year. First half growth of 8% was offset by second half decline of 37%, as the partial lockdown from March to June led to closure of bars and restaurants.
Uganda: Declined 5% versus prior year, as first half growth of 10% was offset by the impact of a total lockdown from March to June resulting in a 21% decline in sales in the second half.
Tanzania: Grew 14% versus prior year, as first half growth of 19% slowed down to 10% in the second half as Government restrictions in response to Covid-19 were limited.
EABL Group MD and CEO, Andrew Cowan, said: “During this unwelcome pandemic, our top priority has been to safeguard the health and well-being of our people and support our communities, while taking necessary action to protect our business. Across the markets we have tracked changes in consumer behaviour and repurposed our execution plans in trade to continue serving our consumers where safe and possible to do so.”
In recognition of the uncertainty in the external environment in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic and the need to conserve cash to support the business, the Board of Directors do not recommend a final dividend. Consequently, the interim dividend of Kes 3 per share paid in April 2020 will be the full and final dividend for the year.
Conclusions
Brutal H2 slump of 29%. My Concern is that H1 will be a Wipe Out.
This is a valuable Franchise but there is more Pain to come.
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EABL FY 2020 via @theabojani
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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East African Breweries Plc- Financial Statements For the Year ended 30 June 2020. @tradingroomke
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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CS Mutahi Kagwe: 634 health professionals have turned positive across the country. @citizentvkenya
Africa
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We have sufficient PPE’s in the country, if there’s a problem; it is on management or distribution but certainly not on availability
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Gross NPL ratio +13.1% in June from 13% in May Sh844bn loans restructured (29% of total loan book) Private sector credit growth +7.6% in 12 months to June Goods exports up 1.7% in H1 2020 but service exports -20% @MihrThakar
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 107.675
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic on @wazua says, "We are back to levels last seen in May 2003...NSE20 down 68 points to 1811. Pray Pray Pray." @MihrThakar
N.S.E General
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
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