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Thursday 06th of August 2020
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I sense the economic damage is escalating rather than easing. What do record low/negative real yields and the rise of gold tell us? Something’s awry.
World Of Finance
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Back in the real world I am becoming increasingly worried about the R word. Recovery. I sense the economic damage is escalating rather than easing. What do record low/negative real yields and the rise of gold tell us? Something’s awry.
The first issue is an increasing element of “wobble” in the background noise.
Second, add the Coronavirus shocks to damaged global supply and demand chains and the friction from known geopolitical threats like China/US tension, global trade null-entrophy, Brexit, and the issues likely to be triggered by Europe’s recovery fund.
Then layer on top the economic tensions multiplying in the emerging markets… Oh, and yes, the possibility of a messy US election triggering a constitutional crisis. (Long shot – but possible.)
Third is the reality of solvency – the number of SMEs being kept afloat solely through government schemes and emergency lending, plus the larger corporates that have borrowed in markets.
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid PRECIOUS METALS TURN VIRAL
World Of Finance
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The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved #COVID19
World Of Finance
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Warning from Goldman Sachs: Covid-19 Vaccine Approval Could Upend Markets @DavidInglesTV
World Of Finance
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No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud
World Of Finance
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24-FEB-2020 :: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
World Of Finance
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The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
World Of Finance
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Conclusions Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00 Gold $2,200+ Silver $50.00+ EM a Sell [on rallies] Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance
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24-FEB-2020 :: a “V- shaped” recovery #COVID19 [is a FANTASY]
World Of Finance
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Wow on this BOE projection. If this will be a V-shaped recovery, we’re still not even halfway down the “V” down leg. @DavidInglesTV
World Of Finance
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Bank of England: GDP won’t exceed 4Q 2019 levels until end of 2021
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What’s certain is that the whole global economy has been hit by an insidious, literally invisible circuit breaker #COVID19
World Of Finance
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Moment of #BeirutExplosion during a mass broadcasted online due to #COVID19 situation @moradnews
Market Crashes / Panic
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It certainly feels like a decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.
World Of Finance
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Comment your name and I’ll spell it for you in Akkadian Replying to @alykhansatchu 𒀀𒇷𒄩𒀭 @protosemite
Misc.
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It certainly feels like the Virus has accelerated The World and that the Centre cannot hold.
World Of Finance
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The Way We Live Now
World Of Finance
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Beirut governor Marwan Abboud to @AFP - Up to 300,000 left homeless by Beirut blast: governor - Cost of damage from blast tops $3 bn: governor- Damage extends over half of city: governor @ZeinakhodrAljaz
Law & Politics
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A former CIA operative: "This is not just ammonium nitrate. It was clearly a military explosive, It was not fertilizer like ammonium nitrate. I'm quite sure of that." @CNN
Law & Politics
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Global cases are few days away from reaching 20 million...@TetotRemi
Misc.
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We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Misc.
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Year of the Virus
World Of Finance
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But it feels as if Europe is about to become the next hotspot again @TetotRemi
Misc.
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Global coronavirus deaths exceed 700,000, one person dies every 15 seconds on average @Reuters
Misc.
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Nearly 5,900 people are dying every 24 hours from COVID-19 on average, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the past two weeks.
That equates to 247 people per hour, or one person every 15 seconds.
President Donald Trump said the coronavirus outbreak is as under control as it can get in the United States, where more than 155,000 people have died amid a patchy response to the public health crisis that has failed to stem a rise in cases.
“They are dying, that’s true,” Trump said in an interview with the Axios news website.
“It is what it is. But that doesn’t mean we aren’t doing everything we can. It’s under control as much as you can control it. This is a horrible plague.”
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The Year of the Virus #COVID19
Misc.
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After adding nearly two million cases in the past seven days globally, it seems that daily cases are rolling over...@TetotRemi [i DISAGREE]
Misc.
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―They fancied themselves free,wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Misc.
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They fancied themselves free wrote Camus ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Misc.
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―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.
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Cerebral Micro-Structural Changes in COVID-19 Patients – An MRI-based 3-month Follow-up Study @TheLancet
Misc.
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Study findings revealed possible disruption to micro-structural and functional brain integrity in the recovery stages of COVID-19, suggesting the long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2.
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Manifest brain damage in 55% COVID-19 patients higher bilateral gray matter volumes (GMV) in olfactory cortices, hippocampi, insulas, left Rolandic operculum.. @yaneerbaryam
Misc.
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No significant difference between severe and non-severe COVID
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1861
Dollar Index 92.801
Japan Yen 105.54
Swiss Franc 0.9090
Pound 1.3162
Aussie 0.7192
India Rupee 74.872
South Korea Won 1184.81
Brazil Real 5.2909
Egypt Pound 15.9869
South Africa Rand 17.393
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$DXY Dollar Index Chart @AlphaFruit_ 92.826
World Currencies
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Conclusions Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00
World Currencies
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$EURUSD @sunchartist 1.1844
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Africa
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Gold Is Expensive, and May Be Just Warming Up @markets @johnauthers @bopinion
Commodities
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The question is impossible to answer. Gold’s value rests in the eye of the beholder, and over recorded human history people have continued to find it beautiful.
It pays no income, and its intrinsic value is set by the market. Valuation techniques that work for other assets won’t work for gold.
The dollar has weakened sharply in the last few months. But if we look at gold in euro and yen terms, there is more to this than dollar weakness. Gold hit an all-time high against both these currencies last year. It is currently at a record in all three.
At present, real 10-year yields are more negative than they have been since inflation-linked bonds became widely available.
One crucial development of the last year is that the U.S. has joined Germany in having very negative real yields (which presages a weaker dollar, as well as higher gold prices):
Real yields form the backbone of one of the most interesting models of “fair value” for gold, produced by City of London veteran Charles Morris, the founder of ByteTree.com.
The model, described here and here, is essentially a zero-coupon 20-year Treasury inflation-protected security, or TIPS, and thus rises as long-term real yields fall. In brief summary, the factors included are:
Major factors:
Realized inflation
Real interest rates (20-year expected)
Speculative premium/discount
Minor factors:
U.S. dollar (consequence rather than cause)
Central banks, wars, bad news
Jewelry demand (counter cyclical)
Mine supply
Here is how the model’s “fair value” has compared to the actual gold price over time:
The point for a trader is that when gold is in a bull market, it has shown a propensity to move even further above fair value. So gold is expensive, but it is still significantly less expensive than at the previous peak in late 2011.
For those wanting to play the dangerous game of predicting a speculative surge, Morris offers another important data point. Equity bull markets tend to peak when retail investors are sucked in, a process that appears to be happening for stocks.
The same was true for gold during its massive peak in real terms in 1980, when news bulletins were full of footage of people happily emerging from shops having converted their life savings to a small pile of gold sovereigns (transactions that would have taken decades to work out), and again in 2011 when the weight of gold-buying through exchange-traded funds reached a high.
This rally has plainly been fueled by something other than ETF-buying:
The bullish scenario is that central banks keep doing what they’re doing. squashing real yields ever lower, and continuing to raise the fair value for gold.
Then inflation at last begins to come untethered and rise toward or even above its upper 3% target (which is conceivable but still some years away).
And then retail buyers enter in a big way. A while after this, gold would probably go splat, but the ride to get there would be lucrative.
The risks would come in a change of central-bank behavior — just as the last gold peak turned into a bear market once the Fed started to try to move away from its unlimited asset purchases.
Such a change looks less likely this time. Gold does look expensive then, but there is little reason to expect it to fall much anytime soon.
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Fifty Years Oil Gold Ratio @markets @johnauthers @bopinion
Commodities
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Its not just about Dollar weakness @johnauthers @bopinion
World Currencies
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German US real yields @bopinion
World Of Finance
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27-JUL-2020 :: Conclusions Euro 1.25 $DXY < 90.00 Gold $2,200+ Silver $50.00+ EM a Sell [on rallies] Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance
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24-FEB-2020 I would venture Gold is correlated to the #Coronavirus which is set to turn parabolic and is already non linear and exponential ~ or as that great French Thinker Paul Virilio described it ~ has “escape velocity”
Commodities
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22-MAR-2020 :: I believe Gold will soon turn viral to the Upside I am looking for $2,000.00+ [Market closed at $1484.00 that day]
Commodities
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27-JAN-2020 :: “But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola.''
Commodities
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“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’
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22-JUN-2020 :: Gold is a No Brainer targets $2,000.00
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 42.25
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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With all the talk about Dollar weakness, USD has actually been rising against EM in the last two weeks, including against South Africa, Colombia, Russia & Brazil. @RobinBrooksIIF
Emerging Markets
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Turkey’s lira fell more than 1% as concerns remained about the central bank’s depleted forex reserves and higher foreign debt obligations. @Reuters
World Currencies
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Turkey’s lira sank in volatile trading and overnight rates in a London-based swap market tumbled back after topping 1,000% the day before.
Analysts at Commerzbank say the swap rates were close to 1,200%, last witnessed in the spring of 2019.
This was also around the time Turkish banks cut funding to the market and effectively made it impossible to short the lira, thereby curbing its losses.
“The problematic situation of re-emergence of the current account deficit combined with a deeply negative real interest rate remains applicable to Turkey.”
Investors are worried about a drop to $51 billion from $81 billion this year in the central bank’s gross FX reserves, as well as over Turkey’s high foreign debt obligations and Turks buying more hard currencies.
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August 13, 2018 And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’ [In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]
World Currencies
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For those brave enough to even think about thinking (about thinking) about bullish #Turkey views, this chart of (negative!) currency reserves should always be in the back of your head. @jnordvig
Emerging Markets
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04.09.2018 no-one except die-hard Erdogan-supporting Turkish nationalists is prepared to throw good money after money gone bad on the basis of Erdogan's hocus pocus monetary policy Mr. Satchu told Sputnik.
Emerging Markets
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Sample of 158 single-B USD eurobonds highlights spreads currently higher on longer-dated African bonds vs other regions. @emsovdebt
Africa
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Why is this the case? Maybe concerns about scope of G20 debt service suspension initiative
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China-Africa relations enter new era as easy money dries up @AfricanBizMag
Africa
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China has lent over $150bn to African countries in nearly two decades, but as concerns mount over repayment, the nature of the China-Africa relationship is set to change for good, writes David Thomas
As the Chinese authorities scrambled to respond to Beijing’s first coronavirus outbreak in 50 days in mid-June, locking down residential compounds and sealing off a seafood market after at least 200 fell ill, an unruffled President Xi Jinping broadcast to African leaders to express solidarity in their own fight against the virus.
Appearing before a row of African flags on 17 June, Xi lavished praise on the joint efforts of his African partners and deployed military metaphors to promise that Covid-19 will strengthen China’s economic and diplomatic ties with the continent.
“China and Africa have offered mutual support and fought shoulder to shoulder with each other. China shall always remember the invaluable support Africa gave us at the height of our battle with the coronavirus. In return, when Africa was struck by the virus, China was the first to rush in with assistance and has since stood firm with the African people… No matter how the international landscape may evolve, China shall never waver in its determination to pursue greater solidarity and cooperation with Africa.”
The pandemic has decimated Africa’s fragile economic assumptions, sapped Chinese demand for the commodities that support its leading economies, and forced the implementation of growth-eroding lockdowns.
The World Bank predicts that GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa could fall from 2.4% in 2019 to between -2.1% and -5.1% in 2020.
That is causing African policymakers to cast a nervous eye towards the continent’s debt pile, swollen by hundreds of billions of dollars in loans from the Chinese government, banks, and state-owned enterprises.
Without debt support, unaffordable payments on the vast portfolio of loans from China and other wealthy nations could lead to a series of chaotic defaults by individual African countries.
Meanwhile, China itself is facing a daunting economic reckoning after years of expansive growth. Its status as Covid-19’s Ground Zero and the cost of unprecedented population restrictions have forced the government to abandon its official GDP target for the first time since 1990 – the IMF predicts it will grow by just 1% this year compared to 6.1% in 2019.
The flagging outlook and a damaging US-China trade war have spurred doubts over whether Chinese policymakers will continue to plough billions of dollars into African projects with limited immediate upside.
“On both the demand and supply side we’re going to see a huge detrimental impact. The fiscal space for African governments is becoming increasingly constrained and it’s very unlikely they’ll be able to pay back existing debts let alone take on new ones,” says Yunnan Chen, senior research officer in the development and public finance team at the Overseas Development Institute.
“On the supply side China is going to have to confront a growing economic recession at home. The war chest of foreign reserves it had over the previous few decades that it was able to slosh around in developing countries is going to be a lot more limited and prioritised for domestic needs.”
While the relationship may be poised for a reset, it could offer an opportunity for the partners to place relations on a more sustainable footing by reordering debts, shifting towards mutually beneficial trade and foreign direct investment, and rethinking Africa’s debt model.
“There has been a shift in the tenor of the relationship even in the last 10 years where what used to be an economic relationship primarily based on the resource trade has shifted towards infrastructure and a political and strategic relationship.
It remains in African leaders’ interests to have China as a powerful partner, but that era of debt-dependent finance is coming to a close,” says Chen.
Renegotiation time
While analysts are in broad agreement that the pandemic will hasten the decline of easy Chinese credit in Africa, there is little consensus around the appropriate timing or structure of Chinese debt relief.
The World Bank estimates that China accounts for 17% of African debt.“I think most [African governments] don’t feel they’re in a debt trap but where they are expressing concern is on trade. They want to get more exports into China and are really pushing on that agenda starting in 2018. Some are much more interested in FDI from China than loans from China. They need to really learn the lessons from the past and be cautious on the specific terms and conditions for all those things and exchange notes, just as they need to on loans.”
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19-APR-2020 :: The End of Vanity China Africa Win Win
Africa
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Growth in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 is projected at –1.6 percent, the lowest level on record @PaulWallace123 Here are the #IMF's GDP-growth projections for SSA in 2020
Africa
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I Thought the GDP Projections for 2020 and 2021 a little bright eyed and bushy tailed.
Lets Turn now to the defining Engagement of the last two decades for SSA – The SSA China relationship.
And the entire China Africa relationship has been an extraordinary exercise in Narrative Framing and linguistic control, accompanied by a chorus of Party Hacks chirruping Hosannas at every turn amplifying largely meaningless feel good Phrases artfully placed in the mouths of our Politicians and our Newspapers. It is remarkable.
I reference excerpts from Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the opening ceremony of 2018 FOCAC Beijing Summit
BEIJING, Sept. 3 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the 2018 Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) here on Monday.
September has just set in Beijing, bringing with it refreshing breeze and picturesque autumn scenery. And we are so delighted to have all of you with us, friends both old and new, in this lovely season for the reunion of the China-Africa big family at the 2018 Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Over a month ago, I paid my fourth visit to Africa as the Chinese President, which was also my ninth visit to this land of great promise. During the last visit, I once again saw an Africa that is beautiful and richly endowed, that is full of dynamism in development, and I learned about first-hand the African people's ardent hope for a better future.
I concluded the visit even more convinced that Africa's development has great potential, that this great continent is full of hope, that China-Africa friendship and cooperation have broad vistas, and that China and Africa can forge an even stronger comprehensive strategic and cooperative partnership!
it is for both China and Africa to pursue win-win cooperation and common development. In doing so, China follows the principle of giving more and taking less, giving before taking and giving without asking for return. With open arms, we welcome
African countries aboard the express train of China's development. No one could hold back the Chinese people or the African people as we march toward rejuvenation. Ultimately, it is for the peoples of China and Africa to judge the performance of China-
Africa cooperation. No one could deny the remarkable achievements made in China- Africa cooperation, not with their assumption or imagination.
On the other hand, we also face challenges unseen before. Hegemony and power politics persist; protectionism and unilateralism are mounting; war, conflicts, terrorism, famine security challenges, both traditional and non- traditional, remain as complex and interwoven as ever.
However, we are firm in our conviction that peace and development remain the underlying trend of our times. Indeed, they are the call of the times. The international community should take our historical responsibility and respond to the call of our times with solidarity, vision, courage and a sense of mission.
To respond to the call of the times, China is ready to jointly promote the Belt and Road Initiative with international partners. We hope to create new drivers to power common development through this new platform of international cooperation; and we hope to turn it into a road of peace, prosperity, openness, green development and innovation and a road that brings together different civilizations.
To quote a Chinese saying, "The ocean is vast because it rejects no rivers."
China, the world's largest developing country, and Africa, the continent with the largest number of . Indeed, we share a common stake. China will work with Africa to achieve our shared goal of building a closer China-Africa community with a shared future and turn it into a pacesetter for building such a community for mankind.
Second, let us build a China-Africa community with a shared future that pursues win- win cooperation.
Third, let us build a China-Africa community with a shared future that delivers happiness for all of us.
Fourth, let us build a China-Africa community with a shared future that enjoys cultural prosperity. developing countries, have long formed a community with a shared future
Together, we could make China and Africa beautiful places for people to live in harmony with nature.
"The red rising sun will light up the road ahead." I am confident that the baton of China-Africa friendship will be passed from one generation to the next and that China and Africa, working together, will build an even more vibrant community with a shared future.
The day will surely come when the Chinese nation realizes its dream of national renewal and Africa realizes its dream of unity and invigoration!
Interestingly, At that 2018 FOCAC Meeting Xi Jinping also delivered a thinly veiled warning
China's Xi says funds for Africa not for 'vanity projects' Reuters #FOCAC2018
Our African Leaders did not take notes and that Warning was missed.
2-SEP-2019 :: the China EM Frontier Feedback Loop Phenomenon. #COVID19
This Phenomenon was positive for the last two decades but has now undergone a Trend reversal. The ZAR is the purest proxy for this Phenomenon.
African Countries heavily dependent on China being the main Taker are also at the bleeding edge of this Phenomenon.
This Pressure Point will not ease soon but will continue to intensify
“China had a singular and positive influence on Africa. It rebalanced the demand side for Africa’s commodities and also bought those commodities on a long-term basis. It was this which triggered the African recovery some two decades ago, However, since then a freewheeling China has favourited elites, has facilitated large-scale looting via inflated infrastructure, some of which were white elephants and has lumped the African citizen with the tab. How this plays out is now the key to Sino-African relations going forward. A Hambantota scenario would be problematic,” referring to the Sri Lankan port which has been leased to China for 99 years.
Tavi Costa tweeted
1/12 The idealization of Chinese economic success has always been a big scam. Throughout history we have had several similar examples of communist countries that have reached unsustainable levels of internal and external debt and have suffered marked collapses.
2/12 Para elaborar nessa proposição, considere a seguinte reflexão. De acordo com o PIB publicado pelo governo chinês, a China foi responsável por mais de 60% do crescimento econômico global desde 2008.
2/12 To elaborate on this proposition, consider the following reflection. According to GDP published by the Chinese government, China has accounted for more than 60% of global economic growth since 2008.
3/12 Com isso, ela passou a ser, incomparavelmente, a maior importadora de commodities no mundo. Se caso o seu crescimento de PIB tivesse sido tão expressivo, como justificaríamos a queda geral de preços de commodities no mundo?
3/12 As a result, it has become, by far, the largest importer of commodities in the world. If your GDP growth had been so expressive, how would we justify the general drop in commodity prices in the world?
4/12 Curiosamente, esse período marcou uma das piores décadas para esse mercado na história. É incontestável a contradição entre esses números, presumivelmente mais apurados, e os números “criados” pelo próprio governo comunista Chinês.
4/12 Interestingly, this period marked one of the worst decades for this market in history. The contradiction between these numbers, presumably more accurate, and the numbers “created” by the Chinese communist government is undeniable.
A Lot of these Loans are not on the Official Register.
The Hambantota Moment has arrived
18-JUN-2018 :: So the first overarching Point, is that creditors are not Santa Claus and miscues will exact a very heavy price, Countries will be "Hambantota-ed"
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Some African governments who are already bilaterally petitioning China for relief say Chinese envoys are citing provisions in loan agreements that would transfer collateral, in some cases strategic state assets, into Beijing’s hands:
This is a symptom of the SSA disease.
Basically China has an Option to buy in SSA Assets at fire-sale Prices.
In an interview, The World Bank’s Malpass cited liens against Angola’s oil revenues associated with Chinese debt that were hidden by non-disclosure agreements, convenient for politicians and contractors.
“Let the people of the country see what the terms of the debt are as their government makes commitments,” Malpass said.
The Terms of these debts are hidden precisely because they are so egregious.
And this is now precisely the Point we have arrived at.
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We are staring into the abyss of a Zombie Apocalypse #COVID19
Africa
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02-MAR-2020 :: Balance Sheets are maxed out
Africa
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09-DEC-2019 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa
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Africa's GDP growth could decline between 4PP and 9PP. @achaleke @Africa_com
Africa
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5 March 2020 Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
Africa
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22-MAR-2020 :: How much do we need to haircut FY SSA 2020 Remittances? 10%? 20% >25% #COVID19
Africa
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Tanzania’s President @MagufuliJP Says Country Is Virus Free. Others Warn of Disaster @nytimes @Lattif
Africa
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Tanzania hasn’t reported a single coronavirus case in three months, even as the African continent is expected this week to cross the threshold of one million reported cases.
More than 88 days have passed since Tanzania reported even a single new coronavirus case — far longer than any other African country.
Tanzania’s president has declared the scourge “absolutely finished” and encouraged tourists to come back.
The problem is that, outside of Tanzania, people are skeptical. And inside Tanzania, few dare stand up to the president, John Magufuli, who has become increasingly autocratic since he was elected five years ago.
Mr. Magufuli has said that the power of prayer helped purge the virus from the country, even as the African continent is expected this week to cross the threshold of one million reported cases.
The Tanzanian president has promoted an unproven herbal tea from Madagascar as a cure.
He has disparaged social distancing and mask wearing. And his government has not disseminated any recent data to the World Health Organization. The group last heard from Tanzania on April 29, when the country reported 509 cases and 21 deaths from Covid-19.
Mr. Magufuli stood before government and security officials in the capital, Dodoma, on July 20 and praised them for restoring safety in the east African nation of nearly 60 million. “Our enemies will say a lot, but here in Tanzania we are safe,” he said. “We put God first, and God heard us.”
Mr. Magufuli claimed that the kits had returned positive results on samples secretly taken from a goat and a pawpaw fruit. The Africa C.D.C. and the W.H.O. both rebutted those allegations, saying the tests were reliable.
With limited reporting, critics have accused the government of a cover-up, especially after videos of night burials with attendants wearing protective gear surfaced online.
Opposition leaders in Parliament demanded testing for all lawmakers after three died within days of each other in April. The demand went unheeded, and Parliament is now suspended ahead of the October election.
In May, the United States Embassy also warned of an “exponential growth” of infection in Tanzania, saying the risk of contracting the virus in the commercial port city of Dar es Salaam was “extremely high.”
Mr. Magufuli’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic “has been nothing short of an irresponsible disaster,” said Tundu Lissu, an opposition leader who fled the country in 2017 but recently returned to run for president.
“His attitude has been Covid-19 will somehow go away if we all stop talking about it.”
John Nkengasong, the director of the Africa C.D.C., said he was “very worried” Tanzania had not disclosed any information for months, hindering the agency’s ability to help coordinate and guide the continent’s response in the pandemic.
“The best way to deal with this is good information, good data and good science,” Dr. Nkengasong said, adding that governments like Tanzania’s should be cognizant “that any infection anywhere will be infections everywhere in Africa.”
“None of our countries is an island,” he said.
When farmers complained that big corporate buyers were offering low prices for cashews, a major export in Tanzania, the president sent in the army to buy the cashews at a higher price.
But these popular efforts did not last long. His administration soon began to crack down on the media, ban the collection of statistics and data without government approval and pass laws that placed restrictions on human rights organizations.
The moves surprised those who had hoped Mr. Magufuli would change the country’s direction for the better.
“Magufuli looked like a fresh start,” said Maria Sarungi Tsehai, director of Kwanza TV, which was suspended for 11 months after reporting on a Covid-19 health alert from the United States Embassy.
The loss of freedom of expression under Mr. Magufuli, she said, meant that many people “shudder in terror” from saying anything against the government, including about its handling of the pandemic.
Several doctors, health advocacy groups and nongovernmental organizations in Tanzania declined to comment for this article for fear of reprisals.
“The only voices left are very few of us,” Mr. Tsehai said. “And that’s actually becoming a very scary scenario.”
While Mr. Magufuli endeared himself to supporters early on, critics say his policies are increasingly undermining the fabric of a nation once considered a paragon of stability in the region.
Some say his intolerance is a throwback to the nationalistic ways of Julius Nyerere, Tanzania’s founding father and an icon of anti-colonialism in Africa.
While there are many dissimilarities, “Magufuli presents his leadership as a wholesale return to Nyerere,” said Dan Paget, a politics professor at the University of Aberdeen in Britain.
His plans to resuscitate the national airline, launch a modern railway and revive work on a hydroelectric dam first proposed in the 1970s exemplify that vision, Mr. Paget said.
The president’s actions also reflect the behavior of a ruling party that seeks to stay in power at whatever cost, said Fatma Karume, a rights lawyer in Dar es Salaam.
The party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, or Party of the Revolution, has controlled Tanzania since its creation, in 1977, but its victories at the polls have been progressively reduced since multiparty politics was restored in 1992.
“It’s centralization of power,” said Ms. Karume, referring to Mr. Magufuli’s actions. “Because when you have civil society, you have the press, you have opposition. Your power is not concentrated,” she said.
Health experts warn that Mr. Magufuli’s denial around the coronavirus could be calamitous.
“With no testing data or clinical surveillance information, Tanzania will be late in detecting and dealing with a potentially delayed explosion of severe clinical cases,” said Frank Minja, a Tanzanian doctor who is an associate professor of radiology and biomedical imaging at the Yale School of Medicine.
The opposition is hoping to use the government’s handling of the pandemic to rally voters against Mr. Magufuli in October.
Despite the president’s clampdown on political organizing and what is said about the virus, the opposition party, Chadema, has registered millions of new members, said Mr. Lissu, the opposition candidate who fled the country in 2017.
October could be a “make or break election” in Tanzania’s history, said Mr. Lissu. “We stand on the brink of disaster,” he said. “But we are also on the brink of a miracle.”
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The African @jairbolsonaro is of course @MagufuliJP
Law & Politics
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@MagufuliJP #COVID19 was equivalent to “Satan” and that it would naturally be defeated with prayer, since “Satan cannot reside in the body of Christ.” 27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid
Law & Politics
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Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”
Law & Politics
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Angela Merkel: “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.” Angela Merkel
The Correlation between the Case Load and Populism has a stupendously high correlation coefficient.
political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis
I was reading Ibn Khaldun’s Muqaddimah which sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period.
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
To thwart calamities, rulers should possess certain qualifications. Khaldun recognizes wisdom, logic, honesty, justice and education as the most desirable qualities in a ruler.
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Over 978,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases on the African continent - with more than 652,000 recoveries & more than 21,000 deaths cumulatively. @WHOAFRO
Africa
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#Libya 4.57% growth rate of #COVID10 cases leads #Africa followed by #Zambia (4.06%), #Angola (3.6%), #Ethiopia (3.53%), #Morocco (3.49%), & #Kenya (3.12%). @jmlukens
Africa
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Africa is entering a Fast Growth ‘’escape’’ velocity Phase #COVID19
Africa
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It took 123 days to go from the first case of #coronavirus to 250,000 confirmed cases Africa. From 250,000 to 500,000 21 days. From 500,000 to 750,000 14 days
Africa on track to pass 1 million diagnosed #COVID19 cases shortly @jmlukens
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Africa is playing ''Whack a Mole'' with a blindfold on
Africa
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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19
Africa
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Africa has a Problem COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is now reaching ‘full speed’ @AP #COVID19 and it’s good to prepare for the worst-case scenario, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chief said
’We’ve crossed a critical number here,” he said of the half-million milestone.
“Our pandemic is getting full speed.”
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South Africa is the Precursor for the rest of Africa #COVID19
Africa
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“South Africa may unfortunately be a precursor,” @DrMikeRyan said. “It may be a warning for what will happen in the rest of Africa.” @WHO @VOANews
Africa
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Africa is now accelerating off a Low base
Africa
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On the 10-MAY-2020 : Africa was at 56,000 confirmed #COVID19 cases
Africa
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world.
Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster then BOOM!
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
World Of Finance
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 17.45
World Currencies
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 16.00
World Currencies
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Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg
World Of Finance
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Kenya Power has secured a 12- month moratorium on foreign loans and is in talks with local banks to reschedule its multibillion-shilling debt. @moneyacademyKE
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
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The company is in talks with a financier to acquire its commercial debt of about Sh60b with longer maturity period. — Business Daily
Kenya Power is also in talks with five commercial lenders to restructure its debt.
Government-guaranteed foreign debt stands at Sh44.7 billion.
Only three out of the 21 commercial and guaranteed loans is denominated in Kenya shillings.
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 107.90
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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