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Wednesday 21st of October 2020
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Nairobi National Park @Trivettravelske
Africa
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Wanted to share this video I filmed of elephants in Kenya. @yashar
Africa
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'The most interesting painting is one that expresses more of what one thinks than of what one sees' - Mark Rothko @Tate
Misc.
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Listen to and watch an in-depth visual description of Cildo Meireles's Babel @Tate
Misc.
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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
World Of Finance
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Cildo Meireles's Babel @Tate
Misc.
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Monday rush hour. King's Cross. @London_W4
Misc.
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The Way We Live Now
World Of Finance
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Phone a friend @London_W4
Misc.
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Don DeLillo wrote "Everything is barely weeks. Everything is days. We have minutes to live." The Way we live now #COVID19
Misc.
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Francis Bacon’s final painting to get first showing in UK — Study of a Bull, in which he reflects on his impending death, will be star exhibit of show at @royalacademy of Arts, London @alfonslopeztena
Misc.
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Magical waters, awesome lunch with a sail around Lamu on Salsabila Dhow was nothing but amazing. @The_Mentalyst
Misc.
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Old Tsavo Station at dusk. @cooksipgo
Africa
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“The greatest weapon in the hand of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed.” ― Steve Biko
Africa
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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They behave like sharks in a feeding frenzy, attacking each other with all the demented violence of human drug dealers gone mad on their own wares. @GonzoVice
Law & Politics
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Great snap @reuterspictures @ReutersBarria @BruceReuters
Law & Politics
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Chances of Trump winning Florida? 29% @FiveThirtyEight 26% @NewStatesman 23% @TheEconomist Betting markets say 50%. @LadPolitics
Law & Politics
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4-NOV-2019 :: Pollice verso or verso pollice is a Latin phrase, meaning "with a turned thumb", that is used in the context of gladiatorial combat.
Law & Politics
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19-OCT-2020 :: Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent
World Of Finance
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“Now is the winter of our discontent” is the opening of a speech by William Shakespeare from Richard III.
It was also used to describe the profound industrial unrest that took place in 1978—9 in the United Kingdom.
Prime Minister Callaghan was asked by a reporter "What is your general approach, in view of the mounting chaos in the country at the moment?" and replied:
Well, that's a judgment that you are making. I promise you that if you look at it from outside, and perhaps you're taking rather a parochial view at the moment, I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos.
The next day's edition of The Sun headlined its story "Crisis? What crisis?"
And brings me back to how the World is circular and
Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher
Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher,
vanity of vanities! All is vanity.
A generation goes, and a generation comes,
but the earth remains forever.
The sun rises, and the sun goes down,
and hastens[b] to the place where it rises.
What has been is what will be,
and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun.
Is there a thing of which it is said,
“See, this is new”?
It has been already
in the ages before us.
There is no remembrance of former things, nor will there be any remembrance
of later things[d] yet to be
among those who come after.
Ibn Khaldun sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
And here we are
#COVID19
The Virus clocked a record 400,000+ cases 3 times last week.
Whether it is in the First, second, third or fourth wave is an academic Question.
What we know is that #COVID19 [is] unlike the flow of capital [and that] this virus seeks proliferation, not profit, and has, therefore, inadvertently, to some extent, reversed the direction of the flow.
Arundhati Roy: ‘The pandemic is a portal’ – The Open Question is a Portal to whence.
I listened to the soothing platitudes of the IMF and the World Bank and now those August Institutions have ditched Talk of a ‘’V’’ shaped recovery but still hold fast to a Quaalude level Snap Back next year.
Quaaludes ‘’promote relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These properties are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric effect’’
They are dreaming
We are spinning deeper into negative interest rate territory
ALL G7 CURVES 0-10 WILL BE NEGATIVE IN 2021
BUT WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A RECOVERY OR WILL IT PRESAGE A SLUMP?
The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved #COVID19
No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud
THE VACCINE STORY IS ANOTHER MYTH
What if, as I fear, there will never be a vaccine. I was involved in the early stages of identifying the HIV virus as the cause of Aids. I remember drugs companies back then saying there would be a vaccine within around 18 months. Some 37 years on, we are still waiting. Prof ANGUS DALGLEISH @MailOnline
WILL XI ROLL THE DICE OVER TAIWAN?
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Chinese military beefs up coastal forces as it prepares for possible invasion of Taiwan @SCMPNews
World Of Finance
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Conclusions
BUY GOLD
BUY WHISKEY
BUY SHORT STERLING
BUY DIGITISATION
BUY EURO [COUNTERINTUITIVE I KNOW]
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Aleks Gjika, Porthcawl lighthouse is engulfed by waves as a storm lashes the south coast of Wales
Misc.
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US budget deficit breached $3.1tn in 2020 by far biggest one-year gap between govt spending and tax revenue in US history
World Of Finance
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The total amount of negative yielding debt outstanding is approaching the 2019 high of $17 trillion, rising to $16.58 trillion
World Of Finance
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A virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”. Year of the Virus
Misc.
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#France 76,258 record new #COVID19 cases yesterday well above 22k/day week average. Total cases grew 8% yesterday to 952,600. @jmlukens
Misc.
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Drinking the Kool-Aid We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Misc.
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Belgian Health Minister has announced on broadcaster RTL that as regards #Covid the government is no longer in control of what’s happening. Adding « We are really very close to a tsunami » @BBCkatyaadler
Misc.
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The H-6N bomber with an Air Launched Ballistic Missile under the fuselage. @TheAviationist
Law & Politics
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The primary weapon of the H-6N, according to available info, should be the CH-AS-X-13, also known as DF-21D, the air launched version of the DF-21 “Carrier Killer” Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (AShBM), reportedly with a range of 1450 km (780 NM), Mach 6 speed (some sources state even Mach-10) and a 600 kg (about 1300 lbs) payload.
This weapon should be the same that was carried by the bomber in the video, as reported by Andreas Rupprecht, renowned expert about Chinese military aviation.
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
World Of Finance
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(1/x) Xi Jinping's visit to China's National Military Museum to commemorate the 70th anniversary of China's military entering Korean war is a *big* deal @CarlMinzner
Law & Politics
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WILL XI ROLL THE DICE OVER TAIWAN?
Law & Politics
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Three PLA aircraft (KJ-500, Y-9 EW, and Y-8 ASW) entered #Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on Oct. 20 #ROCAF deployed patrolling aircraft and air defense missile systems to monitor the activities. @MoNDefense
Law & Politics
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(2/x) Recognize the signals here. Xi took entire membership of Politburo Standing Committee, plus Wang Qishan. @CarlMinzner
Law & Politics
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What better than delivering Taiwan as a gift to the CCP. He will be revered with god-like status for disciplining the Taiwanese and seizing control/ ending a long negative chapter of their history @realKunalAShah
Law & Politics
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07-OCT-2019 :: China turns 70
China
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They have “stood up.” Xi’s model is one of technocratic authoritarianism and a recent addition to his book shelf include The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. Xi is building an Algorithmic Society.
Some of the Xi-era slogans are short and simple, in the manner of Western advertising, such as the “Chinese Dream,” the catchphrase embodying the party’s aim to become a global power by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People Republic of China. In a way, this is also nothing new.
But Xi has taken the propagation of ideology and the cult of personality to extremes not seen since the days of Chairman Mao. Xi in fact has replaced Jesus in Churches and Mohamed in the mosques.
“Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,” “Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!” he added.
Today we know the Chinese economy is slowing, but Xi is relying on Chinese resilience “If there is a decoupling between the two economies, so be it. The Chinese people can endure more pain than the spoiled and hubristic Americans.
“The Folks in Hong Kong [whom Xi is seeking to unmask so he can exercise algorithmic control over them] are in open rebellion.
Joshua Wong told German Media “Hongkong ist das neue Berlin” referencing the “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech given by United States President John F. Kennedy on June 26, 1963, in West Berlin.
I am sure Xi sees Hong Kong and Taiwan like a virus and he is looking to impose a quarantine just like he has imposed on Xinjiang.
The Chinese Dream has become a nightmare at the boundaries of the Han Empire.
The World in the 21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
The periphery requires a lot more finesse than more blunt force. But he can rely on a US President whose dereliction of his international duty is now in plain sight.
“China will not interfere in the internal affairs of the US, and we trust that the American people will be able to sort out their own problems,” China’s very subtle Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in response to questions around Trump’s pursuit of Biden and his personal political agenda at the price of the US’ international agenda.
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#KoreanWar film #JinGangChuan is highly anticipated as China commemorates the 70th anniversary of China's entry into The War to Resist US Aggression @globaltimesnews
Law & Politics
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05-DEC-2016:: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk." "We copy. There's a voice." "We have gross oscillation here"
Law & Politics
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Today's GRU indictment is an incredible document. The Five Eyes intelligence communities, I would suspect, must have stunning visibility into Russian military intelligence operations if today's disclosures are considered dispensable @RidT
Law & Politics
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The first thing is plausible deniability The second thing is non-linearity
Law & Politics
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Note: Russian military intelligence camouflaged as North Korean @RidT
Law & Politics
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The RaTG13 genome was just quietly updated on Oct 13, 2020. Why is this happening!? @Ayjchan
Misc.
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However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
Misc.
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According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”
However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.18609
Dollar Index 92.785
Japan Yen 105.2200
Swiss Franc 0.90461
Pound 1.299015
Aussie 0.708795
India Rupee 73.4207
South Korea Won 1131.570
Brazil Real 5.6059000
Egypt Pound 15.699518
South Africa Rand 16.40025
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Watching @scottmelker $DXY monthly chart. @JEOxendine 92.785
World Currencies
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions Conclusions $DXY < 90.00
World Currencies
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$EURUSD 30min Chart: See Chart @FXPIPTITAN 1.18609
World Currencies
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions Euro 1.25
World Currencies
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#BTC #BITCOIN with new DeMark Sequential Sell Countdown 13 @TommyThornton 12,250.00
World Currencies
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27 NOV 17 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!" [Redux?]
World Of Finance
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Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”
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Reed Hastings: ‘ @netflix is still in challenger status’ @FT
World Of Finance
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Reed Hastings is the billionaire founder of Netflix, the crusher of Blockbuster, and the one who turned Hollywood upside down with streaming tech
Netflix launched 1997 a service offering DVD hire by post, aiming to bring internet savvy to the ever-frustrating, damn-the-late-fees world of video rental.
“Covid could have been an internet virus taking down all the routers of the world and our business would be out and restaurants would be in,”
“And instead tragically it is a biological one, so everybody is locked up and we had the greatest growth in the first half of this year that we ever had.” With a market capitalisation of around $230bn, it has been vying with Walt Disney since March $NFLX
“If you just say no rules, then it is kind of anarchy,” he replies. “The question is, can you manage through values and context, so everyone is doing the right thing without central co-ordination? It’s the jazz metaphor versus the orchestra.”
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SEP-2019 a ‘’conviction’’ Buy at Friday’s closing price of $270.75. $NFLX
World Of Finance
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“People went from broad to narrow,” he said, “and we think they will continue to go that way—spend more and more time in the niches— because now the distribution landscape allows for more narrowness’’
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"As we expected, growth has slowed with 2.2m paid net adds in Q3 vs. 6.8m in Q3’19. We think this is primarily due to our record first half results and the pull forward effect we described in our April and July letters." $NFLX @ekmokaya
World Of Finance
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold @SignalFi_ 1918.440
Commodities
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions Gold $2,200+
Commodities
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Crude Oil Chart INO 41.51
Commodities
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For 200 years between the 15th to the 17th centuries, Surat was the place to be. @LiveHIndia
Emerging Markets
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China's government debt is forecast to double in dollar terms, rising by $5 trillion to $10.4 trillion between 2019 and 2023. @RencapMan
Emerging Markets
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I listened to the soothing platitudes of the @IMFNews and the @WorldBank
World Of Finance
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Cross-border credit to emerging market and developing economies fell y-o-y for the first time since 2016 @BIS_org
Emerging Markets
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Excluding top markets, other EM FX is -10%, on avg. All markets avg -6%. @akcakmak
Emerging Markets
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I Joined @Afreximbank at the Fourth Annual Babacar Ndiaye Virtual Lecture. Africa and the Remaking of the New World Order H.E. Professor Kishore Mahbubani @mahbubani_k
Africa
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CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ Confirmed: 1 656 013 (+ 9698) Actives: 255 286 (+ 4141) Deaths: 39 934 (+ 185) Recoveries: 1 359 425 (+ 5372) @NCoVAfrica
Africa
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Sudan’s removal from a U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism will open the door for the African country to get relief of its external debt worth $60 billion, @SudanPMHamdok said @Reuters
Africa
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Hamdok spoke on state television after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would remove Sudan from the list, which has been a major hurdle for Sudan to tap international institutions.
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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
Africa
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The Reuters archive has a lot of clips on Jean-Bédel Bokassa, infamous president of the Central African Republic. Here he is in Aug. 1966 in Mobutu's Zaire. @Unseen_Archive
Africa
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Bokassa had taken power only 6 months before this visit, & many African states had not recognised his govt. 1/4
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We dream of a new politics That will renew the world Under their weary suspicious gaze. There's always a new way, A better way that's not been tried before.
Africa
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1/3 On 4 Dec 1977 Jean-Bedel Bokassa made himself emperor of the Cent. African Republic before a crowd of 4,000 in Bangui. @Unseen_Archive
Africa
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The coronation was modelled after Napoleon I in 1804. The French sent 8 horses from Normandy for the gold & bronze chariot. The golden throne was imported 1/3
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2/3 After the coronation mass was sung in Latin & French at the Catholic cathedral; and the archbishop (ceremonially) kissed the emperor. @Unseen_Archive
Africa
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from Paris, along with 60,000 bottles of Champagne.
After the coronation mass was sung in Latin & French at the Catholic cathedral; and the archbishop (ceremonially) kissed the emperor.
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3/3 In Sept. 1979 Bokassa was overthrown. This clip from @Reuters shows a crowd toppling his statue from its plinth at the centre of Bangui. @Unseen_Archive
Africa
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At 0:41 a group bashes the metal frame of Bokassa's coronation throne. The gold had already been stripped from it.
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Sic transit gloria mundi is a Latin phrase that means "Thus passes the glory of the world." It has been interpreted as "Worldly things are fleeting''
Africa
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Fils de président equato guinéen et accessoirement vice président....publie une parti de sa difficile vie au service de son peuple...les guinéens apprécieront...@Jupiterofcongo
Africa
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#Ethiopia’s GDP at $107.4 billion. It joins the over $100b club, PM Abiy says. @Habesh_
Africa
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@flyethiopian flight to #Shanghai "Flight ET684 will be grounded for five weeks from Oct.26 after over a dozen passengers tested positive for #COVID19 this month, the Civil Aviation Administration of #China said on Tuesday." @addisstandard
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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South Africa’s debt service jumped above 20% of budget revenue @NGurushina
Africa
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#COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 16.40035
World Currencies
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Egypt reports 3.6% economic growth in fiscal year 2019/2020 (30.9.19-30.9.20) despite 9 months of COVID19 @michaeltanchum
Africa
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.699
Africa
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Dear Lagosians, I have watched with shock how what began as a peaceful #EndSARS protest has degenerated into a monster that is threatening the well-being of our society. Lives and limbs have been lost as criminals and miscreants are now hiding under the
Africa
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I, therefore, hereby impose a 24-hour curfew on all parts of the State as from 4pm today, 20th October,2020. Nobody, except essential service providers and first responders must be found on the streets. @jidesanwoolu
Africa
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21 OCT 19 :: "The New Economy of Anger"
Africa
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Nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions.
People have been pushed to the edge and are taking to the streets.
Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics,
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot.
Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.
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If you're proud of this generation, #EndSARS @Deeva4dlord
Africa
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10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
Africa
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Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.
We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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So #BBI is loading and aims to double Number of MPs in BUNGE..PLUS double the EXECUTIVE; ushering in PM plus 2 Deputies on top of President and Vice... A government of POLITICOS by POLITICOS for POLITICOS @AbdikadirMohami
Africa
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14.408% Test Positivity Rate 571 people have tested positive for the virus, from a sample size of 3,963 tested in the last 24 hours. @MOH_Kenya
Africa
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(14.41%). This is compared to a weekly hit rate of 11.29% in the week ended 19th Oct. @MihrThakar
Africa
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Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
Africa
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Lake Naivasha: A monitoring station run by the Water Resources Authority (WRA) indicates the lake rose 2.7 metres (8.9 feet) between April and June, pushing water half a kilometre inland. @surambaya
Africa
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Safaricom Half-Year Revenue in Kenya Shilling(Billions) @TheAbojani
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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2021 To be 9th November 2020
2020 129.9
2019 122.8
2018 114.4
2017 102.1
2016 97
2015 79
2014 69
2013 59
2012 49
2011 47
2010 40.6
2009 34.5
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.@SafaricomPLC share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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