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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 21st of October 2020
 





















19-OCT-2020 :: Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent
World Of Finance




“Now is the winter of our discontent” is the opening of a speech by William Shakespeare from Richard III.

It was also used to describe the profound industrial unrest that took place in 1978—9 in the United Kingdom.

Prime Minister Callaghan was asked by a reporter "What is your general approach, in view of the mounting chaos in the country at the moment?" and replied:

Well, that's a judgment that you are making. I promise you that if you look at it from outside, and perhaps you're taking rather a parochial view at the moment, I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos.

The next day's edition of The Sun headlined its story "Crisis? What crisis?"

And brings me back to how the World is circular and


Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher

Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher,

vanity of vanities! All is vanity.

A generation goes, and a generation comes,

but the earth remains forever.

The sun rises, and the sun goes down,

and hastens[b] to the place where it rises.

What has been is what will be,

and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun.

Is there a thing of which it is said,

“See, this is new”?

It has been already

in the ages before us.

There is no remembrance of former things, nor will there be any remembrance

of later things[d] yet to be

among those who come after.

Ibn Khaldun sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah




Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

And here we are

#COVID19

The Virus clocked a record 400,000+ cases 3 times last week.

Whether it is in the First, second, third or fourth wave is an academic Question.


What we know is that #COVID19 [is] unlike the flow of capital [and that] this virus seeks proliferation, not profit, and has, therefore, inadvertently, to some extent, reversed the direction of the flow.

Arundhati Roy: ‘The pandemic is a portal’ – The Open Question is a Portal to whence.

I listened to the soothing platitudes of the IMF and the World Bank and now those August Institutions have ditched Talk of a ‘’V’’ shaped recovery but still hold fast to a Quaalude level Snap Back next year.

Quaaludes ‘’promote relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These properties are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric effect’’


They are dreaming


We are spinning deeper into negative interest rate territory

ALL G7 CURVES 0-10 WILL BE NEGATIVE IN 2021


BUT WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A RECOVERY OR WILL IT PRESAGE A SLUMP?


The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved #COVID19

No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud



THE VACCINE STORY IS ANOTHER MYTH

What if, as I fear, there will never be a vaccine. I was involved in the early stages of identifying the HIV virus as the cause of Aids. I remember drugs companies back then saying there would be a vaccine within around 18 months. Some 37 years on, we are still waiting. Prof ANGUS DALGLEISH @MailOnline

WILL XI ROLL THE DICE OVER TAIWAN?





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Chinese military beefs up coastal forces as it prepares for possible invasion of Taiwan @SCMPNews
World Of Finance


Conclusions

BUY GOLD

BUY WHISKEY

BUY SHORT STERLING

BUY DIGITISATION

BUY EURO [COUNTERINTUITIVE I KNOW]

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The H-6N bomber with an Air Launched Ballistic Missile under the fuselage. @TheAviationist
Law & Politics



The primary weapon of the H-6N, according to available info, should be the CH-AS-X-13, also known as DF-21D, the air launched version of the DF-21 “Carrier Killer” Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (AShBM), reportedly with a range of 1450 km (780 NM), Mach 6 speed (some sources state even Mach-10) and a 600 kg (about 1300 lbs) payload. 

This weapon should be the same that was carried by the bomber in the video, as reported by Andreas Rupprecht, renowned expert about Chinese military aviation.



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07-OCT-2019 :: China turns 70
China


They have “stood up.” Xi’s model is one of technocratic authoritarianism and a recent addition to his book shelf include The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. Xi is building an Algorithmic Society.

Some of the Xi-era slogans are short and simple, in the manner of Western advertising, such as the “Chinese Dream,” the catchphrase embodying the party’s aim to become a global power by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People Republic of China. In a way, this is also nothing new.

But Xi has taken the propagation of ideology and the cult of personality to extremes not seen since the days of Chairman Mao. Xi in fact has replaced Jesus in Churches and Mohamed in the mosques. 

“Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,” “Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!” he added.

Today we know the Chinese economy is slowing, but Xi is relying on Chinese resilience “If there is a decoupling between the two economies, so be it. The Chinese people can endure more pain than the spoiled and hubristic Americans.

“The Folks in Hong Kong [whom Xi is seeking to unmask so he can exercise algorithmic control over them] are in open rebellion. 

Joshua Wong told German Media “Hongkong ist das neue Berlin” referencing the “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech given by United States President John F. Kennedy on June 26, 1963, in West Berlin.

I am sure Xi sees Hong Kong and Taiwan like a virus and he is looking to impose a quarantine just like he has imposed on Xinjiang. 

The Chinese Dream has become a nightmare at the boundaries of the Han Empire.

The World in the 21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight. 

The periphery requires a lot more finesse than more blunt force. But he can rely on a US President whose dereliction of his international duty is now in plain sight.

“China will not interfere in the internal affairs of the US, and we trust that the American people will be able to sort out their own problems,” China’s very subtle Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in response to questions around Trump’s pursuit of Biden and his personal political agenda at the price of the US’ international agenda.

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However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
Misc.



According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.18609

Dollar Index 92.785

Japan Yen 105.2200

Swiss Franc 0.90461

Pound 1.299015

Aussie 0.708795

India Rupee 73.4207

South Korea Won 1131.570

Brazil Real 5.6059000

Egypt Pound 15.699518

South Africa Rand 16.40025

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27 NOV 17 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!" [Redux?]
World Of Finance

Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”

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Reed Hastings: ‘ @netflix is still in challenger status’ @FT
World Of Finance


Reed Hastings is the billionaire founder of Netflix, the crusher of Blockbuster, and the one who turned Hollywood upside down with streaming tech 

Netflix launched 1997 a service offering DVD hire by post, aiming to bring internet savvy to the ever-frustrating, damn-the-late-fees world of video rental. 

“Covid could have been an internet virus taking down all the routers of the world and our business would be out and restaurants would be in,” 

“And instead tragically it is a biological one, so everybody is locked up and we had the greatest growth in the first half of this year that we ever had.” With a market capitalisation of around $230bn, it has been vying with Walt Disney since March $NFLX

“If you just say no rules, then it is kind of anarchy,” he replies. “The question is, can you manage through values and context, so everyone is doing the right thing without central co-ordination? It’s the jazz metaphor versus the orchestra.”

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SEP-2019 a ‘’conviction’’ Buy at Friday’s closing price of $270.75. $NFLX
World Of Finance


“People went from broad to narrow,” he said, “and we think they will continue to go that way—spend more and more time in the niches— because now the distribution landscape allows for more narrowness’’

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Sudan’s removal from a U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism will open the door for the African country to get relief of its external debt worth $60 billion, @SudanPMHamdok said @Reuters
Africa


Hamdok spoke on state television after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would remove Sudan from the list, which has been a major hurdle for Sudan to tap international institutions.

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1/3 On 4 Dec 1977 Jean-Bedel Bokassa made himself emperor of the Cent. African Republic before a crowd of 4,000 in Bangui. @Unseen_Archive
Africa

The coronation was modelled after Napoleon I in 1804. The French sent 8 horses from Normandy for the gold & bronze chariot. The golden throne was imported 1/3

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2/3 After the coronation mass was sung in Latin & French at the Catholic cathedral; and the archbishop (ceremonially) kissed the emperor. @Unseen_Archive
Africa



from Paris, along with 60,000 bottles of Champagne.

After the coronation mass was sung in Latin & French at the Catholic cathedral; and the archbishop (ceremonially) kissed the emperor.

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3/3 In Sept. 1979 Bokassa was overthrown. This clip from @Reuters shows a crowd toppling his statue from its plinth at the centre of Bangui. @Unseen_Archive
Africa

At 0:41 a group bashes the metal frame of Bokassa's coronation throne. The gold had already been stripped from it.

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21 OCT 19 :: "The New Economy of Anger"
Africa



Nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions. 

People have been pushed to the edge and are taking to the streets.

Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics, 

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’

The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot. 

Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.

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10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
Africa


Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.



We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

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Safaricom Half-Year Revenue in Kenya Shilling(Billions) @TheAbojani
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services



2021 To be 9th November 2020

2020 129.9

2019 122.8 

2018 114.4

2017 102.1 

2016  97

2015  79

2014  69

2013  59

2012  49

2011   47

2010  40.6

2009  34.5

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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October 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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