Ibn Khaldun sought to explain the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah

And here we are

#COVID19

The Virus clocked a record 400,000+ cases 3 times last week.

Whether it is in the First, second, third or fourth wave is an academic Question.

No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud

Chinese military beefs up coastal forces as it prepares for possible invasion of Taiwan @SCMPNews

The Ronald Regan Carrier Strike Group is now operating in the South China Sea for the third time as part of its current underway period. Meanwhile, a destroyer made a transit of the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday.

Euro 1.180500

Dollar Index 93.051

Japan Yen 104.733

Swiss Franc 0.906945

Pound 1.306545

Aussie 0.711965

India Rupee 73.5519

South Korea Won 1131.840

Brazil Real 5.5926238

Egypt Pound 15.709600

South Africa Rand 16.20930

They are dreaming

BUT WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A RECOVERY OR WILL IT PRESAGE A SLUMP?

The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved #COVID19

Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.

We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? 

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari called for an end to mass protests against police brutality in which dozens of people have died, as he warned the authorities will act to protect lives and property.

Addressing the nation on state television, Buhari said protesters should “resist the temptation of being used by some subversive elements to cause chaos” and undermine democracy. 

“For you to do otherwise will amount to undermining national security. Under no circumstances will this be tolerated.”

It was the first time Buhari has addressed protesters directly, one of their key demands since the rallies began two weeks ago. 

He’s largely remained silent through the growing crisis, mainly using aides and statements to deliver his response to calls for reforms.

At least 56 people have died in the marches, with 38 of them killed on Tuesday alone, when the authorities began a crackdown, according to human-rights group Amnesty International said. 

The government hasn’t announced a death toll.

The unrest and the authorities’ increasingly heavy-handed response has begun to unnerve financial markets, with the naira dropping as much as 1.2% against the dollar on Thursday.

The risk premium that investors demand to hold Nigeria’s dollar debt rather than U.S. Treasuries has widened 20 basis points this week, while the average for African nations narrowed two basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.

Nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions. 

People have been pushed to the edge and are taking to the streets.

Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics, 

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’

The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot. 

Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feedback loop.

Policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa now face the added challenge of rekindling their economies with fewer resources and more difficult choices.

In our latest Regional Economic Outlook, we project -3 percent growth in sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP in 2020, representing the worst outcome on record for the region. 

The drop will be even larger for economies dependent on tourism and commodity exports. Growth in the region should rebound modestly in 2021 to 3.1 percent, but for many countries, a return to 2019 levels won’t occur until 2022–24.

As the region looks toward the future, uncertainty over the path of the pandemic continues to loom over an enduring recovery.

However, countries in the region entered the crisis with significantly less fiscal space than they had prior to the global financial crisis of 2008–09. 

COVID-19 related fiscal support in sub-Saharan Africa has averaged 3 percent of GDP—markedly less than what has been spent in other regions of the world.

But more help is needed. Sub-Saharan Africa faces additional financing needs of $890 billion through 2023. 

Private financial flows are expected to fill less than half of that need, while current commitments from international financial institutions and bilateral donors will cover only one-quarter of the need. 

Under that scenario, the region still faces a projected financing gap of $290 billion through 2023.

Nelson Mandela once said, “may your choices reflect your hopes, not your fears.” 

The long climb out of this crisis won’t come easy, but the actions and choices of today will be vital for a prosperous and resilient future for sub-Saharan Africa.

During the last seven, a total of 29 919 new confirmed COVID-19 cases and 474 new deaths were reported from 46 countries, compared to 30 145 cases and 747 deaths registered during the previous seven days (7 - 13 October 2020). 

In the past seven days, 14 countries recorded a decrease in new cases by 20% or above: Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Gambia, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Sao Tome and Principe and Seychelles. 

Twelve countries have recorded an increase in new cases by 20% or above in the past seven days: Algeria, Angola, Burundi, Eritrea, Guinea- Bissau, Kenya, Mauritania, Niger, Rwanda, South Sudan, Togo and Zimbabwe.

Agriculture is also vital for economic growth and political stability, accounting for 20 per cent of the continent’s gross domestic product and 60 per cent of its labour force.

In Ethiopia, which accounts for almost half of OCP’s sales on the continent, Mr Benameur says the company has helped increase maize yields by 50 per cent. “Remember Ethiopia, which was once known for famine,” he says. “It now exports maize to Kenya.”

3% Proportion of global fertiliser consumption accounted for by Africa. This compares with 57 per cent by Asia

Guinea’s President Alpha Conde retained his lead on Wednesday in provisional results from the Oct. 18 election, beating his challengers in 14 constituencies out of 20 that have been announced by the electoral commission.

Earlier in the day, Conde appealed for calm following deadly clashes between opposition supporters and police.

At least six people were killed, including two police officers, and many injured when supporters of Conde’s main rival Cellou Dalein Diallo set piles of old furniture and tyres on fire in some opposition neighbourhoods of Conakry, Security Minister Damantang Albert Camara said.

Tanzania President John Magufuli's idiosyncratic handling of the coronavirus pandemic has put the country in the global spotlight. Now one of the region's most unconventional leaders is seeking a second term.

When Covid-19 arrived in Tanzania, President Magufuli didn't believe in people staying at home. 

He wanted them to get into the churches and mosques to pray.

"Coronavirus, which is a devil, cannot survive in the body of Christ... It will burn instantly," Magufuli, a devout Christian, pronounced on 22 March from the altar of a church in Tanzania's capital, Dodoma.

He would later speak against social distancing and the wearing of masks, and questioned the efficacy of testing after sending various animals and fruit to be checked for the virus - he announced that a papaya, a quail and a goat had all tested positive. 

The president said he could not countenance closing down the economy, and excoriated neighbouring countries for doing so.

Although many might dismiss Magufuli's approach as eccentric, it is emblematic of his combative style.

Every five or so years, it rips me apart to watch the same tragedy: a La Niña weather cycle brings devastating drought and hunger to East Africa, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. 

Using climate models and Earth observations, we can now predict these droughts. And once again, dry conditions are predicted from this month until December, with a very good chance of another poor rainy season in March to May 2021.

How firm is the drought prediction? Very. Almost all forecast models and climate agencies anticipate lower-than-normal rainfall between October and December. 

My group puts the chance at about 80%. Poor rains in March to May 2021 also seem likely. Of course, there’s uncertainty. But that shouldn’t prevent action. Forewarned is forearmed.

Conditions on the ground can deteriorate quickly. Today’s climate-model forecasts look a lot like they did in mid-2016 —

La Niña conditions are associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. But around Indonesia, the seas are very warm. That combination is drying East Africa.

If governments don’t take note, however, all the data collection and modelling is for nothing. 

Few nations in eastern and southern Africa use drought predictions adequately. 

For example, when El Niño-related drought was forecast in September 2015, it was ten months before an emergency was declared.

The Republic of Congo plans to settle its internal debt to stimulate the economy, starting with 300 billion CFA francs ($542 million), or about a third of the amount the government owes currently, according to the deputy Finance Minister.

The money was mobilized by the so-called Brazzaville Club, which comprises three commercial banks in the central African nation, Ludovic Ngatsé said by phone. 

While 25% is reserved for small operators, the remaining three-quarters is intended for “large accounts, with a good-faith commitment on their part to inject the proceeds into major projects,” he said. 

“The whole animal is medicine walking,” she says, flexing her muscles in a display of vigour. “The milk is medicine. It gives me strength and helps my bones because camel milk has the highest content of calcium.” 

Three years ago, she and her husband, Jamal Warsame, founded White Gold, one of the few companies in Africa pasteurising and bottling camel milk, which naturally has a fat content that is roughly equivalent to that of semi-skimmed cows’ milk. 

They sell between 10,000 and 15,000 litres a month, including flavoured varieties — chocolate, vanilla, strawberry — and are looking into making ice cream.

“There’s no policy framework for camel milk in Kenya, we need to raise awareness of the need for that,” says Mr Warsame.