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Thursday 26th of November 2020
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#Vaccine shots & stimulus! @jchatterleyCNN
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A $2 trillion #stimulus deal could add 3% to US GDP next year says @GitaGopinath Chief Economist @IMFNews but it needs to come SOON.
PLUS vaccinating the entire world will raise global income by "$9 trillion between now and 2025"
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There is no V shaped recovery coming in 2021. Thats just a Fantasy. The Spinning Top
World Of Finance
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So DJIA celebrated 30,000 because Trump is going or coming? @sonaliranade
Law & Politics
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“You can't eat the orange and throw the peel away - a man is not a piece of fruit.”
Misc.
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33 years ago that I took this image of Diego Maradona at the World Cup Finals and that day remains fresh in the memory. @David_Yarrow
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#BREAKING Football legend Maradona dead @AFP
Misc.
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Asif Kapadia's Maradona documentary slices through the myth to show us the man @guardian
Misc.
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Diego Armando Maradona’s life is a cliché, a rags to riches tragedy. He started as a poor boy with no filter, one whose ruthless drive and innate skill took him to greatness, before a sudden fall.
Had he been watching, Andy Warhol would have been enthralled.
Asif Kapadia, who won an Oscar for Amy, another documentary about a scintillating talent who came crashing to earth, is the man behind a new film about Maradona.
In the film, titled Maradona, Kapadia slices through the persisting myth of D10S, attempting to free Diego the man from Maradona the legend.
After a limited theatrical release, HBO brings the film to US audiences this week.
America missed his legend, catching him at perhaps his lowest low, when he flamed out of the 1994 World Cup after a failed drugs test. In the US, he was a hero to only a few – and I was one of them.
As a teenage Argentinian immigrant in the United States in the early 2000s, struggling to reconcile my cultural identity with my new country, I clung to Maradona.
He was Platonic Argentinianess, and I found in his legend the answers I sought. His was a greatness to strive for and a perseverance to mimic. His legend held what the teenage me saw as answers about masculinity (be brash, work hard and be a leader) and sportsmanship (forget about it).
Sure, lessons can be found in any world-class athlete, but with Maradona they all came wrapped in an albiceleste bow of patriotism.
His success was Argentina’s and by extension mine, decades and thousands of miles away from his heyday.
His brilliant goals, his breathtaking skills, his trophies, his literal single-handed demolition of England in 1986 – they were mine too.
He validated my reverence for a culture that I was separated from and gave me a love I could share with the only other Argentinian teenager in a neighborhood that was mostly Venezuelan and Colombian.
As a kid, I looked past his drug addiction and involvement with the mafia. Now, the reality of Maradona’s past, which Kapadia skilfuly peels back, is undeniable. Maradona’s present raises even more worrying questions.
Now, after a decade-long absence, Diego (or is it Maradona?) is back in Argentina, to start another chapter. He has taken a job as the manager of embattled Gimnasia y Esgrima, a club languishing near the bottom of the Argentinian Superliga.
For Gimnasia supporters, the excitement is real. But despite his insistence that he’s back in Argentina to work (“I am no magician”, he told supporters at his presentation) the motives behind Maradona’s return are opaque.
Some argue that it is no coincidence that Maradona is using his fame to bring attention to the club, following the Argentinian tradition of using football as a distraction in times of political instability.
Giselle Fernandez, the current vice-presidential candidate for Argentina’s opposition party Frente Para Todos, and sister of former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner gifted Maradona a rosary carrying a locket.
Inside, was a picture of her mother. Maradona is an avowed Kirchnerist and Fernandez is an ardent Gimnasia supporter.
It’s unclear how much business the Fernandez family have tied up in the club – if any – but Noticias, an Argentinian weekly magazine, reported that the club expects to make $3m from sponsorship this season.
In the 10 days after the announcement, the club sold 6m pesos ($105,000) worth of jerseys.
The footballer who helped me love my country may be a willing pawn to distract Argentina’s citizens in the critical upcoming elections. Or, perhaps it’s just a club taking the risky bet that he can harvest the same success he had as a player.
Kapadia shows us a frightened Maradona. A man who allowed his legend to consume his life, ultimately destroying him. Is Maradona falling into another loop in which he attaches himself to power to feed his need to be loved, leading to his own demise? Does he even realise he is doing this?
Still, there are some lessons from Maradona I hold dear – his perseverance and drive. Other, more negative ones, I’ve cast aside.
As time passes Maradona’s myth will continue to change.
The only certainty is that the image we have of Maradona is the same as that of Marilyn Monroe, Elvis or any other subject of Warhol’s diptychs: a fiction. We can take the lessons we we want – or leave them.
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“No matter how the official narrative of this turns out," it seemed to Heidi
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Thomas Pynchon in Bleeding Edge “No matter how the official narrative of this turns out," it seemed to Heidi, "these are the places we should be looking, not in newspapers or television but at the margins, graffiti, uncontrolled utterances, bad dreamers who sleep in public and scream in their sleep.”
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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics
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"The trouble is that once you see it, you can't unsee it. And once you've seen it, keeping quiet, saying nothing, becomes as political an act as speaking out. There's no innocence. Either way, you're accountable." ~ Arundhati Roy @rebeca6169
Misc.
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Arundhati Roy: ‘The pandemic is a portal’ –
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“ One ought, every day at least, to hear a little song, read a good poem, see a fine picture, and, if it were possible, to speak a few reasonable words.” Goethe @Allehone
Misc.
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Ranthambore: Majestic Forts, a Deciduous Forest and the Reign of the Tiger @adityadickysin
Asia
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Ranthambore was a battlefield. In early medieval times, Ranthambore was a powerful independent kingdom that controlled trade routes to the rich Malwa plateau.
At the heart of this kingdom was the massive and “impregnable” Ranthambore fort that had a thriving community living around it — a community that built amazing buildings.
In the middle of the 15th century, Mughal emperor Akbar annexed Ranthambore. Over the next few centuries all the beautiful monuments of Ranthambore fell into ruins and gradually the forest took over.
However, it was not till the 1980s that a dozen of the biggest villages inside the park were relocated under Project Tiger and tigers began to make a comeback and reclaim the forest and the monuments.
There are very few places in the world where one can see wild tigers grooming themselves in ancient monuments built centuries ago. Where else do you hear phrases like “Mahal ke jharokhe mein Arrowhead baithi hai” (Arrowhead, the tigress is sitting in the balcony of the palace).
It is this mix of history and natural history that makes Ranthambore really special. This is what attracted me to Ranthambore in 1984 when I came here for the first time as an 18-year-old and this is what kept getting me back here till 1998, when I permanently relocated to Ranthambore.
In the last 23 years, I have spent nearly 50,000 hours inside the Ranthambore national park and I am still as fascinated with it.
Ranthambore is a dry deciduous forest and water is in short supply particularly during the summers.
Since ancient times, human beings have been constructing water harvesting structures like stepwells (locally called baoris), small temporary dams (check dams), open wells and even large lakes.
When the forest was declared a tiger reserve, the management realised that to increase the density of wild animals within the reserve they need to ensure a good supply of food, cover and permanent waterholes.
A large number of check dams were built and still continue to be built all over the tiger reserve.
This one, near the Sakri Nallah in Lahpur valley, was built of local rubble stone almost three decades ago.
There are six large lakes within the national park. All six of them are man-made and built in the recent past.
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Chattris or dome-shaped elevated pavilions are an important feature of Indo-Islamic architecture and Ranthambore has some of the prettiest ones, like this one (left) in the background. @adityadickysin
Misc.
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This chattri, locally known as badi chattri (or the big dome), like most other chattris here has a Shivling under the dome.
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This masjid (mosque) along the Padam Talao with its onion domed slender minarets at the end of thick stone walls, large vaulted gateways opening into a big courtyard is a classic example of Ranthambore’s Indo-Islamic architecture.
Misc.
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This one is definitely one of my favourite buildings in Ranthambore. This mosque is in an area that has a very high density of ungulates, so tigers frequently hunt in this area, using the cover provided by the building to get close to their prey.
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There is a grave of a Sufi saint by the side of the road to the Ranthambore fort and it is known as baba ki mazhaar. It is revered by a small groups of locals.
Asia
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There is a very pretty baori next to this grave with large trees all around, including a few of the species Litsea glutinosa or the Indian laurel tree — a rainforest tree in the semi-arid Ranthambore!
The trees were recently identified by botanists Dr Satish Sharma and Dr Dharmendra Khandal. Its presence in Ranthambore is nothing short of a miracle.
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''You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”
Africa
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A Luminous and Fairy Tale feel
Misc.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings
Africa
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Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare. The lone and level sands stretch far away
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Huge flocks of European Storks have arrived in Kenya for the winter migration. They are roosting in acacia trees in a Conservancy @paulakahumbu
Africa
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Israeli military prepares for possibility Trump will strike Iran ... AXIOS
Law & Politics
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The Israel Defense Forces have in recent weeks been instructed to prepare for the possibility that the U.S. will conduct a military strike against Iran before President Trump leaves office, senior Israeli officials tell me.
Why it matters: The Israeli government instructed the IDF to undertake the preparations not because of any intelligence or assessment that Trump will order such a strike, but because senior Israeli officials anticipate “a very sensitive period” ahead of Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20.
What's happening: Israeli minister of defense Benny Gantz spoke twice in the last two weeks with Christopher Miller, Trump's acting defense secretary. They discussed Iran as well as Syria and defense cooperation.
Last Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in Saudi Arabia with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. One of the main issues discussed was Iran, Israeli officials say.
Pompeo visited Israel and several Gulf countries last week to discuss Iran. State Department officials traveling with Pompeo told reporters “all options are on the table."
While Pompeo was in the Gulf, U.S. Central Command announced that B-52 strategic bombers conducted a “short-notice, long-range mission into the Middle East to deter aggression and reassure U.S. partners and allies." That was seen as another signal to Iran.
Hossein Dehghan, an adviser to Iran’s leader and a possible candidate in Iran's upcoming presidential elections, told AP last week that a U.S. military strike against Iran could set off a “full-fledged war” in the Middle East.
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09-NOV-2020 :: The World has spun at dizzying speed in 2020 and is bookended with the Decapitation of Qasem Soleimani and then the Political decapitation of President Trump
Law & Politics
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06-JAN-2020 :: The Assassination (The Escalation of 'Shadow War')
Law & Politics
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“This is an aggressive show of force and an outright provocation that could trigger another Middle East war.”
At the beginning of From Russia With Love (the movie not the book), Kronsteenn is summoned to Blofeld’s lair to discuss the plot to steal the super-secret ‘Lektor Decoder’ and kill Bond.
Kronsteen outlines to Blofeld his play
Blofeld [read Trump]: Kronsteen, you are sure this plan is foolproof?
Kronsteen [read Pompeo]: Yes it is because I have anticipated every possible variation of counter-move.
The dog of war is a phrase spoken by Mark Antony in Act 3, Scene 1, line 273 of William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar: “Cry ‘Havoc!,’ and let slip the dogs of war.”
The Iranians kept their Allies from Yemen to Lebanon to the Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia to Bahrain and all points in between on a leash.
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Azerbaijani army has entered Kalbajar - The wheel has turned @michaeltanchum
Law & Politics
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Weekly epidemiological update - 24 November 2020 @WHO
Misc.
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This past week, the global acceleration in case incidence has slowed down, with around 4 million new cases reported; however, death rates continue to increase with over 67 000 new deaths reported (Figure 1).
The European and South East Asia Regions continued downward trends in weekly cases; however, the European Region remains the largest contributor to new cases and new deaths in the past 7 days.
The Region of the Americas reported increases in both new cases and new deaths and the Region continues to account for the greatest proportion of cumulative cases and deaths.
While cases numbers remain relatively low, the African Region reported the highest increase in new cases (15%) and deaths (30%) this week.
The Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacific regions also reported an increase in new cases and deaths this week.
In the past week, the five countries reporting the highest number of cases were the United States of America (reporting over 1.1 million cases, a 14% increase from the previous week),
India (over 280 000 cases, an 8% decrease),
Italy (over 230 000 new cases, a 3% decrease),
Brazil (over 200 000 new cases, a 17% increase)
and France (over 170 000 new cases, a 16% decrease).
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16-FEB-2020 :: ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics' #COVID19
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Record 1.5 mln covid-19 cases in the Americas in last 7 days, highest weekly number since pandemic began - WHO regional branch @PriapusIQ
Misc.
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A reality TV star botched the response to a global pandemic #COVID19
Law & Politics
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22-MAR-2020 :: To watch the Daily Briefing is to understand that the Control Machine has a Novice, a hubristic Ignoramus in charge of the Console
Law & Politics
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#US 3rd wave #COVID19 outbreak 1.44% avg exponential case growth rate (daily/total) Avg daily cases increased 43% past 2wks to 174,225/day. 2,146 deaths yesterday increased 259,925 total by 0.83%. @jmlukens
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#US 3rd wave #COVID19 outbreak 1.44% avg exponential case growth rate (daily/total) slightly down past week but way up from Sep 7 low of 0.37%. Avg daily cases increased 43% past 2wks to 174,225/day. 2,146 deaths yesterday increased 259,925 total by 0.83%
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The virus is moving at warp speed
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Data from #Covid19 worldwide on November 25: + 632 947 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 60 393 055 in total + 12,058 deaths in 24 hours, or 1,421,924 in total
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The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Misc.
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#Covid19 worldwide November 24: + 588,418 cases in 24 hours, 59,760,108 in total + 12,787 deaths in 24 hours, 1,409,866 in total @CovidTracker_fr
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Data from #Covid19 worldwide on November 24: + 588,418 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 59,760,108 in total + 12,787 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 1,409,866 in total
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19-OCT-2020 :: Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent
World Of Finance
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A virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.
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@EcoHealthNYC via @BillyBostickson
Misc.
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"We intend to conduct a thorough and rigorous investigation into the origins and early spread of SARS-CoV-2," Dr. @PeterDaszak @TheLancet COVID Commission Task Force on the Origins of SARS-CoV-2
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“We have concerns that WIV has not satisfied safety requirements under the award, and that EcoHealth Alliance hasn’t satisfied its obligations to monitor” its partner @Ayjchan
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‘’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Misc.
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There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released
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It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site
Misc.
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US Senate Appropriations Committee report "the Chinese government continues to recruit NIH-funded researchers to steal intellectual property, cheat the peer-review system, establish shadow laboratories in China." @TheSeeker268
Law & Politics
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US Senate Appropriations Committee report for FY 2021 | Foreign Threats to Research: "the Chinese government continues to recruit NIH-funded researchers to steal intellectual property, cheat the peer-review system, establish shadow laboratories in China."
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“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” ― Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Law & Politics
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“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”
“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”
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However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
Misc.
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According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”
However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.192300
Dollar Index 91.987
Japan Yen 104.2980
Swiss Franc 0.908200
Pound 1.336505
Aussie 0.73604
India Rupee 73.82050
South Korea Won 1105.880
Brazil Real 5.3241000
Egypt Pound 15.659900
South African Rand 15.148550
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions $DXY < 90.00
World Currencies
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$DXY Dollar Index Chart @asegpi 91.96
World Currencies
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions Euro 1.25
World Currencies
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Euro Dollar $EURUSD See Chart @FXPIPTITAN 1.1923
World Currencies
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The chart you don’t want to see. Will personally wait for 10-13k area before reloading. $BTC @RandWalkerM 16,782.00
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold @TheArchitect_HC 1814.50 [This is a Jamie Dimon Gift]
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 44.97 [over cooked]
Commodities
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Good thread. Interest payments on local-currency debt dominate debt-servicing costs in most lower-middle income countries (e.g. 70-80% in Ghana and Kenya) as interest rates higher than on external debt. @Markbohlund
World Of Finance
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But thinking that this can be easily addressed by QE is a fallacy.
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There is a seemingly unanimous view that local currency borrowing lessens EM vulnerabilities and allows countries to engage in counter-cyclical policies. I am not convinced. @abisat
World Currencies
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The argument only works if one believes local-currency investors are less “flighty” than $-investors. But, of course, they aren’t. If local debt is risky, local-FX investors can (and often do) run @abisat
World Currencies
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Three inevitable retorts. First, if DM is doing QE, why can’t EM? Well, EMs are just not DMs. “Trust” in local currency matters. A DM investor is happy hoarding excessive local liquidity. An EM economic agent is not. In EM, undesired money will cha
Emerging Markets
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Third retort: negative DM real rates debased DM FX and raised EMFX's relative attractiveness. EM CBs can monetize without fear of large depreciation. @abisat
Emerging Markets
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Makes sense if DM monetary policy stays easy. Taper Tantrum is a reminder of what happens when DM monetary policy reverses.
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In sum, I am not convinced the #EmergingMarkets “original sin” has been vanquished. Local-FX borrowing is no panacea. Inevitably, fiscal realities will come back to haunt EM. @abisat
Emerging Markets
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And when they do, excessively easy monetary policy won’t be the magic wand its touted to be.
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Drinking The Kool Aid
World Of Finance
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Situation by WHO Region African Region Weekly epidemiological update - 24 November 2020 @WHO
Africa
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The weekly incidence of new cases reached over 47 000 this week with around 1000 new deaths reported, accounting for 15% and 30% relative increases when compared to the previous week, respectively (Figure 3).
The highest new case and death counts were reported in South Africa, Algeria and Kenya.
In Rwanda this week, cases have increased by 25%, with 226 new cases (17.4 cases per 1 million population) reported.
Local authorities are enhancing preventative measures in prisons and detention centres following three outbreaks reported in Kigali, Southern and Eastern provinces.
In Zimbabwe, 334 new cases (22.5 cases per 1 million population) were reported this week, with a gradual increase being observed in recent weeks after an initial wave of cases earlier this year.
In Matabeleland Northern Province in the North West of the country, there have been reports of a cluster of confirmed cases affecting approximately 100 students at a boarding school, resulting in the closure of the school.
Overall, the country has reported over 9 000 confirmed cases and nearly 300 deaths.
The characteristics of the cases show most cases (57%) occur in those aged 20-40 years with a greater proportion of females in older age groups.
Deaths are largely occurring in those aged 40-80 years and males account for a greater percentage of deaths in these age groups.
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Turning To Africa Spinning Top
Africa
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So far Africa has dodged the Virus from a medical perspective though it remains in my view a slow burning Fuse and we all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'
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South Africa & Algeria avg #COVID19 cases per day up >50% past 2wks. @jmlukens
Africa
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COVID-19 avg cases/day
#Morocco: 4,216
#SouthAfrica: 2,623
#Tunisia: 1,076
#Algeria: 1,057
#Kenya: 948
#Libya: 619
#Ethiopia: 454
#Uganda: 284
#Sudan: 229
#Nigeria: 159
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Turning to Africa The Spinning Top
Africa
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The real challenge is the Economic Emergency. The latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa projects economic activity in the region to decline by 3.0% in 2020 and recover by 3.1% in 2021. @IMFNews
The IMF is so bright eyed and bushy tailed and I want some of whatever Pills they are popping.
Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.
We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming
10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?
The Event is no longer over the Horizon.
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Final Phase of the Rule of Law Operations Commences @PMEthiopia
Africa
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Am I misunderstanding this? @rosenthal_jon
Africa
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The Russian Modus Operandi in these matters is to flatten it completely - See Grozny
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EXECUTIONS: Prospekt Pobedy in Grozny, November 1995, Chechen Republic, Russia, November 1995. Stanley Greene/NOOR
Africa
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Adherence to the Principle of Non-Intervention in Internal Affairs @AbiyAhmedAli
Africa
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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa
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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
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Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Africa
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How does #Ethiopia finance the war? In April @AbiyAhmedAli pledged to spend $1.6bn (1.6% of GDP) COVID19 response plan. @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa
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@IMFnews says “In practice, much less has been spent to date.” Use of these funds in #Tigray conflict would be against DSSI commitment:
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A fiendishly complicated task fending off the centripetal forces which are tearing Ethiopia apart
Africa
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02-JUL-2018 :: He said “The ppl of Tigray are still begging for a drop of water; TPLF (the party) is not the people of Tigray”.
Africa
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Tigray crisis: ‘They know how to fight and they can do it ’til the end’ @RAbdiAnalyst @FT.
Africa
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20 JAN 20 :: The Intrusion of Middle Powers
Africa
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At least 45 people were killed in protests that rocked Kampala and other parts of Uganda last week, a police spokesperson said. @CNNAfrica
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 15.1697
World Currencies
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.674
World Currencies
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#Emefiele warns speculators against creating panic in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market. @cenbank
World Currencies
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Conclusions
so much potential would be unleashed by doing an @AlsisiOfficial on the FX rate
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5 March 2020 Currency Devaluation is now predicted and predictable. @TheAfricaReport
World Currencies
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#CBN will attack inflation from the supply side through low interest rates @cenbank
Africa
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#Emefiele reiterates need to diversify Nigeria’s economy to grow its foreign revenue base
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Angola Plans to Sell Stakes in State Companies to Raise Funds @markets
Africa
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