home | rich profile | rich freebies | rich tools | rich data | online shop | my account | register |
  rich wrap-ups | **richLIVE** | richPodcasts | richRadio | richTV  | richInterviews  | richCNBC  | 
Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 06th of January 2021
 







04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021
World Of Finance




Robert Frank Children with Sparklers in Provincetown Massachusetts, 1958 @deryainciderya

New Year's Eve: Wuhan New Years Eve 2020

Times Square New Years Eve 2020


in many respects, 2020 was simultaneously both fathomable and unfathomable. it was fathomable because the Pathogen has always been there since time immemorial and lurking in the recesses. It was fathomable because Mankind has always reacted similarly as Nietzsche noted

"Time is a flat circle. Everything we have done or will do we will do over and over and over again- forever."

“Making masks a culture war issue was the dumbest thing imaginable,” said an Advisor to President Trump but remember it was also a culture war issue during the Spanish Flu.

The Virus and The Economy

In 1720 Marseille allowed a ship from plague-ridden Cyprus into port, under pressure from merchants who wanted the goods and didn’t want to wait for the usual quarantine. More than half the population of Marseille died in the next two years


Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”


Chancellor Merkel pronounced “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”

And wherever You care to turn whether it is the US under Trump, the United Kingdom under Boris Johnson, we are witnessing massive decline in the cognitive capacity of leadership and a steep decline in the intellectual capacity of the cognitive capacity of the corpus.

We live in an Era of gobbledygook debate, a moment of complete combustion. Just open your social media account and its a torrent of bite sized nonsense. This is the Achilles Heel which the Sun Tzu Maestro Xi Jinping understood and the Viral War he launched was a perfectly aimed Bullet.

Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19. 

It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later. There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.

the ONLY place where this thing could emerge, naturally or Artificially, is by passage in HUMANIZED MICE. 


"Most logical" explanation for SARS-CoV-2 is that it comes from a lab – virologist


Those who have chosen to propagate this narrative are above the radar and in plain sight and need to be called to account. The Utter Failure to call these 5th columnists to Account is the clearest Signal that there is no external threat because it is already on the inside.

The ''warp speed'' Vaccine Roll Out is chasing the coat Tails of the Virus.


''Reported'' Daily numbers are in the 650,000 to 750,000 daily range and set to undergo an exponential Phase Shift higher this month.

Therefore the Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved.


Markets surfed higher last year on a simply unprecedented Liquidity Wave and it is difficult for now to see an About Face in that regard. 

In fact I expect all G7 Curves 0-10 Years to be deep in negative territory in 2021. [The Optimal Trade is to be long Dec 2021 Short Sterling or Call Options on the same contract LZ21 (Dec '21) 100.065s]

Developed Equity Markets were lifted to records by the Tidal wave of Free Money and clearly we can expect this Momentum to spill over into January. 

However, the dislocation between underlying economies and market capitalisation is now extreme and Buyers should remember the story of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Bubble.

Graham writes,

Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ‘could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.’ Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003’s] money. For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words ‘South Sea’ in his presence.

The Dollar has been a one way Bet to the downside since H2 2020 and has underpinned the rebound in the Commodity Markets and in EM Assets. Whilst the Trend is Your Friend I would be buying 1 Year Call Options because the risk with the Dollar remains asymmetric and to the Upside particularly if Economies do not meet some of the rose tinted spectacle forecasts for 2021 GDP.

As I write this on the 3rd of January 2021 $BTC has touched 35,000.00 in a parabolic shift higher. I believe $BTC's recent surge puts it now in ''nose-bleed'' territory. I believe its a Trading Sell with a very wide Stop. It is currently at its maximum ''Safe Haven'' / Fiat debasement premia.


My Top Trades are Gold and Silver. I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00

I wish you a wonderful 2021.




read more


Running through the Northern part of Tsavo East... this is #wilderness : @WillKnocker
Africa


'Tsavo East National Park is one of the oldest and largest parks in Kenya at 13,747 square kilometres'  Unparalleled biodiversity & habitat

read more





Global 732,528 #COVID19 cases yesterday above 635,788/day 1wk avg. exponentially growing on avg 1.75% each day. @jmlukens
Misc.


Global 732,528 #COVID19 cases yesterday above 635,788/day 1wk avg.  Global total now 86,388,733 and exponentially growing on avg 1.75% each day.  Deaths increased 15,400 yesterday, above 11,256 1wk avg, and 1,868,350 death total on track to 2M in 2wks.

read more




UK record 61,087 new #COVID19 cases yesterday above 56,107 1wk avg. @jmlukens
Misc.

COVID-19 cases yesterday #US: 229.1k #UK: 61.1k #Brazil: 56.6k #Sweden: 32.4k #Russia: 24.0k #Spain: 23.7k #France: 20.8k #Germany: 18.3k #India: 18.1k #Colombia: 16.8k

read more


19-OCT-2020 :: Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent
World Of Finance




It was also used to describe the profound industrial unrest that took place in 1978—9 in the United Kingdom.

Prime Minister Callaghan was asked by a reporter

"What is your general approach, in view of the mounting chaos in the country at the moment?" and replied:

Well, that's a judgment that you are making. I promise you that if you look at it from outside, and perhaps you're taking rather a parochial view at the moment, I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos.

The next day's edition of The Sun headlined its story "Crisis? What crisis?"



read more




US 1.08% avg #COVID19 case growth rate (daily/total) is on the rise following Christmas holiday. @jmlukens
Misc.


US 1.08% avg #COVID19 case growth rate (daily/total) is on the rise following Christmas holiday.  New Year holiday surge in new cases not expected to register for another 2wks.  3,775 record deaths yesterday exponentially expanded total 1.06% to 357,258.





22-MAR-2020 :: To watch the Daily Briefing is to understand that the Control Machine has a Novice, a hubristic Ignoramus in charge of the Console




read more



Germany 1,009 #COVID19 deaths yesterday above 641/day avg. @jmlukens
Misc.



COVID-19 death exponential growth rate avg (daily/total)

#Lithuania: 2.30%

#Slovakia: 3.15%

#Sweden: 2.87%

#Denmark: 2.18%

#Germany: 2.75%

#Japan: 2.14%

#SouthAfrica: 1.68%

#Croatia: 1.27%

#Serbia: 1.20%

#Slovenia: 1.05%

read more


The Lab-Leak Hypothesis For decades, scientists have been hot-wiring viruses in hopes of preventing a pandemic, not causing one. But what if …? @NYMag
Law & Politics


I.

Flask Monsters

What happened was fairly simple, I’ve come to believe. It was an accident. A virus spent some time in a laboratory, and eventually it got out. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, began its existence inside a bat, then it learned how to infect people in a claustrophobic mine shaft, and then it was made more infectious in one or more laboratories, perhaps as part of a scientist’s well-intentioned but risky effort to create a broad-spectrum vaccine. SARS-2 was not designed as a biological weapon. But it was, I think, designed. Many thoughtful people dismiss this notion, and they may be right. They sincerely believe that the coronavirus arose naturally, “zoonotically,” from animals, without having been previously studied, or hybridized, or sluiced through cell cultures, or otherwise worked on by trained professionals. They hold that a bat, carrying a coronavirus, infected some other creature, perhaps a pangolin, and that the pangolin may have already been sick with a different coronavirus disease, and out of the conjunction and commingling of those two diseases within the pangolin, a new disease, highly infectious to humans, evolved. Or they hypothesize that two coronaviruses recombined in a bat, and this new virus spread to other bats, and then the bats infected a person directly — in a rural setting, perhaps — and that this person caused a simmering undetected outbreak of respiratory disease, which over a period of months or years evolved to become virulent and highly transmissible but was not noticed until it appeared in Wuhan.

There is no direct evidence for these zoonotic possibilities, just as there is no direct evidence for an experimental mishap — no written confession, no incriminating notebook, no official accident report. Certainty craves detail, and detail requires an investigation. It has been a full year, 80 million people have been infected, and, surprisingly, no public investigation has taken place. We still know very little about the origins of this disease.

Nevertheless, I think it’s worth offering some historical context for our yearlong medical nightmare. We need to hear from the people who for years have contended that certain types of virus experimentation might lead to a disastrous pandemic like this one. And we need to stop hunting for new exotic diseases in the wild, shipping them back to laboratories, and hot-wiring their genomes to prove how dangerous to human life they might become.

Over the past few decades, scientists have developed ingenious methods of evolutionary acceleration and recombination, and they’ve learned how to trick viruses, coronaviruses in particular, those spiky hairballs of protein we now know so well, into moving quickly from one species of animal to another or from one type of cell culture to another. They’ve made machines that mix and mingle the viral code for bat diseases with the code for human diseases — diseases like SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, for example, which arose in China in 2003, and MERS, Middle East respiratory syndrome, which broke out a decade later and has to do with bats and camels. Some of the experiments — “gain of function” experiments — aimed to create new, more virulent, or more infectious strains of diseases in an effort to predict and therefore defend against threats that might conceivably arise in nature. The term gain of function is itself a euphemism; the Obama White House more accurately described this work as “experiments that may be reasonably anticipated to confer attributes to influenza, MERS, or SARS viruses such that the virus would have enhanced pathogenicity and/or transmissibility in mammals via the respiratory route.” The virologists who carried out these experiments have accomplished amazing feats of genetic transmutation, no question, and there have been very few publicized accidents over the years. But there have been some.

And we were warned, repeatedly. The intentional creation of new microbes that combine virulence with heightened transmissibility “poses extraordinary risks to the public,” wrote infectious-disease experts Marc Lipsitch and Thomas Inglesby in 2014. “A rigorous and transparent risk-assessment process for this work has not yet been established.” That’s still true today. In 2012, in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Lynn Klotz warned that there was an 80 percent chance, given how many laboratories were then handling virulent viro-varietals, that a leak of a potential pandemic pathogen would occur sometime in the next 12 years.

A lab accident — a dropped flask, a needle prick, a mouse bite, an illegibly labeled bottle — is apolitical. Proposing that something unfortunate happened during a scientific experiment in Wuhan — where COVID-19 was first diagnosed and where there are three high-security virology labs, one of which held in its freezers the most comprehensive inventory of sampled bat viruses in the world — isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s just a theory. It merits attention, I believe, alongside other reasoned attempts to explain the source of our current catastrophe.

‘’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.


There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released

read more



The Lab-Leak Hypothesis For decades, scientists have been hot-wiring viruses in hopes of preventing a pandemic, not causing one. But what if …? @NYMag
Africa


“A Reasonable Chance''


From early 2020, the world was brooding over the origins of COVID-19. People were reading research papers, talking about what kinds of live animals were or were not sold at the Wuhan seafood market — wondering where the new virus had come from.

Meanwhile, things got strange all over the world. The Chinese government shut down transportation and built hospitals at high speed. There were video clips of people who’d suddenly dropped unconscious in the street. A doctor on YouTube told us how we were supposed to scrub down our produce when we got back from the supermarket. A scientist named Shi Zhengli of the Wuhan Institute of Virology published a paper saying that the novel coronavirus was 96 percent identical to a bat virus, RaTG13, found in Yunnan province in southern China. On March 13, I wrote in my journal that there seemed to be something oddly artificial about the disease: “It’s too airborne — too catching — it’s something that has been selected for infectivity. That’s what I suspect. No way to know so no reason to waste time thinking about it.”

This was just a note to self — at the time, I hadn’t interviewed scientists about SARS-2 or read their research papers. But I did know something about pathogens and laboratory accidents; I published a book last year, Baseless, that talks about some of them. The book is named after a Pentagon program, Project Baseless, whose goal, as of 1951, was to achieve “an Air Force–wide combat capability in biological and chemical warfare at the earliest possible date.”

A vast treasure was spent by the U.S. on the amplification and aerial delivery of diseases — some well known, others obscure and stealthy. America’s biological-weapons program in the ’50s had A1-priority status, as high as nuclear weapons. In preparation for a total war with a numerically superior communist foe, scientists bred germs to be resistant to antibiotics and other drug therapies, and they infected lab animals with them, using a technique called “serial passaging,” in order to make the germs more virulent and more catching.

And along the way, there were laboratory accidents. By 1960, hundreds of American scientists and technicians had been hospitalized, victims of the diseases they were trying to weaponize. Charles Armstrong, of the National Institutes of Health, one of the consulting founders of the American germ-warfare program, investigated Q fever three times, and all three times, scientists and staffers got sick. In the anthrax pilot plant at Camp Detrick, Maryland, in 1951, a microbiologist, attempting to perfect the “foaming process” of high-volume production, developed a fever and died. In 1964, veterinary worker Albert Nickel fell ill after being bitten by a lab animal.

His wife wasn’t told that he had Machupo virus, or Bolivian hemorrhagic fever. “I watched him die through a little window to his quarantine room at the Detrick infirmary,” she said.

In 1977, a worldwide epidemic of influenza A began in Russia and China; it was eventually traced to a sample of an American strain of flu preserved in a laboratory freezer since 1950. In 1978, a hybrid strain of smallpox killed a medical photographer at a lab in Birmingham, England; in 2007, live foot-and-mouth disease leaked from a faulty drainpipe at the Institute for Animal Health in Surrey. In the U.S., “more than 1,100 laboratory incidents involving bacteria, viruses and toxins that pose significant or bioterror risks to people and agriculture were reported to federal regulators during 2008 through 2012,” reported USA Today in an exposé published in 2014.

In 2015, the Department of Defense discovered that workers at a germ-warfare testing center in Utah had mistakenly sent close to 200 shipments of live anthrax to laboratories throughout the United States and also to Australia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and several other countries over the past 12 years. In 2019, laboratories at Fort Detrick — where “defensive” research involves the creation of potential pathogens to defend against — were shut down for several months by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for “breaches of containment.” They reopened in December 2019.

High-containment laboratories have a whispered history of near misses. Scientists are people, and people have clumsy moments and poke themselves and get bitten by the enraged animals they are trying to nasally inoculate. Machines can create invisible aerosols, and cell solutions can become contaminated. Waste systems don’t always work properly. Things can go wrong in a hundred different ways.

Hold that human fallibility in your mind. And then consider the cautious words of Alina Chan, a scientist who works at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. “There is a reasonable chance that what we are dealing with is the result of a lab accident,” Chan told me in July of last year. There was also, she added, a reasonable chance that the disease had evolved naturally — both were scientific possibilities. “I don’t know if we will ever find a smoking gun, especially if it was a lab accident. The stakes are so high now. It would be terrifying to be blamed for millions of cases of COVID-19 and possibly up to a million deaths by year end, if the pandemic continues to grow out of control. The Chinese government has also restricted their own scholars and scientists from looking into the origins of SARS-CoV-2. At this rate, the origin of SARS-CoV-2 may just be buried by the passage of time.”

I asked Jonathan A. King, a molecular biologist and biosafety advocate from MIT, whether he’d thought lab accident when he first heard about the epidemic. “Absolutely, absolutely,” King answered. Other scientists he knew were concerned as well. But scientists, he said, in general were cautious about speaking out. There were “very intense, very subtle pressures” on them not to push on issues of laboratory biohazards. Collecting lots of bat viruses, and passaging those viruses repeatedly through cell cultures, and making bat-human viral hybrids, King believes, “generates new threats and desperately needs to be reined in.”

“All possibilities should be on the table, including a lab leak,” a scientist from the NIH, Philip Murphy — chief of the Laboratory of Molecular Immunology — wrote me recently. Nikolai Petrovsky, a professor of endocrinology at Flinders University College of Medicine in Adelaide, Australia, said in an email, “There are indeed many unexplained features of this virus that are hard if not impossible to explain based on a completely natural origin.” Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University, wrote that he’d been concerned for some years about the Wuhan laboratory and about the work being done there to create “chimeric” (i.e., hybrid) SARS-related bat coronaviruses “with enhanced human infectivity.” Ebright said, “In this context, the news of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan ***screamed*** lab release.”





read more




The Lab-Leak Hypothesis @NYMag
Law & Politics



Emergence



Now let’s take a step back. AIDS, fatal and terrifying and politically charged, brought on a new era in government-guided vaccine research, under the guidance of Anthony Fauci. A virologist at Rockefeller University, Stephen S. Morse, began giving talks on “emerging viruses” — other plagues that might be in the process of coming out of nature’s woodwork. In 1992, Richard Preston wrote a horrific account of one emergent virus, Ebola, in The New Yorker, which became a best-selling book in 1994; Laurie Garrett’s The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance appeared that same year and was also a best seller. The idea seemed to be everywhere: We were on the verge of a wave of zoonotic, emergent plagues.

This new, useful term, emerging, began to glow in the research papers of some coronavirologists, who were out of the spotlight, working on common colds and livestock diseases. The term was useful because it was fluid. An emerging disease could be real and terrifying, as AIDS was — something that had just arrived on the medical scene and was confounding our efforts to combat it — or it could be a disease that hadn’t arrived, and might never arrive, but could be shown in a laboratory to be waiting in the wings, just a few mutations away from a human epidemic. It was real and unreal at the same time — a quality that was helpful when applying for research grants.





Take, for instance, this paper from 1995: “High Recombination and Mutation Rates in Mouse Hepatitis Viruses Suggest That Coronaviruses May Be Potentially Important Emerging Viruses.” It was written by Dr. Ralph Baric and his bench scientist, Boyd Yount, at the University of North Carolina. Baric, a gravelly voiced former swim champion, described in this early paper how his lab was able to train a coronavirus, MHV, which causes hepatitis in mice, to jump species, so that it could reliably infect BHK (baby-hamster kidney) cell cultures. They did it using serial passaging: repeatedly dosing a mixed solution of mouse cells and hamster cells with mouse-hepatitis virus, while each time decreasing the number of mouse cells and upping the concentration of hamster cells. At first, predictably, the mouse-hepatitis virus couldn’t do much with the hamster cells, which were left almost free of infection, floating in their world of fetal-calf serum. But by the end of the experiment, after dozens of passages through cell cultures, the virus had mutated: It had mastered the trick of parasitizing an unfamiliar rodent. A scourge of mice was transformed into a scourge of hamsters. And there was more: “It is clear that MHV can rapidly alter its species specificity and infect rats and primates,” Baric said. “The resulting virus variants are associated with demyelinating diseases in these alternative species.” (A demyelinating disease is a disease that damages nerve sheaths.) With steady prodding from laboratory science, along with some rhetorical exaggeration, a lowly mouse ailment was morphed into an emergent threat that might potentially cause nerve damage in primates. That is, nerve damage in us.

A few years later, in a further round of “interspecies transfer” experimentation, Baric’s scientists introduced their mouse coronavirus into flasks that held a suspension of African-green-monkey cells, human cells, and pig-testicle cells. Then, in 2002, they announced something even more impressive: They’d found a way to create a full-length infectious clone of the entire mouse-hepatitis genome. Their “infectious construct” replicated itself just like the real thing, they wrote.

Not only that, but they’d figured out how to perform their assembly seamlessly, without any signs of human handiwork. Nobody would know if the virus had been fabricated in a laboratory or grown in nature. Baric called this the “no-see’m method,” and he asserted that it had “broad and largely unappreciated molecular biology applications.” The method was named, he wrote, after a “very small biting insect that is occasionally found on North Carolina beaches.”

In 2006, Baric, Yount, and two other scientists were granted a patent for their invisible method of fabricating a full-length infectious clone using the seamless, no-see’m method. But this time, it wasn’t a clone of the mouse-hepatitis virus — it was a clone of the entire deadly human SARS virus, the one that had emerged from Chinese bats, via civets, in 2002. The Baric Lab came to be known by some scientists as “the Wild Wild West.” In 2007, Baric said that we had entered “the golden age of coronavirus genetics.”

“I would be afraid to look in their freezers,” one virologist told me.



Baric and Shi Zhengli of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the two top experts on the genetic interplay between bat and human coronaviruses, began collaborating in 2015.

VII. The Lab-Leak Hypothesis  @NYMag



read more


How Did It Get Out? @NYMag
China


1. The Tongguan Mine Shaft in Mojiang, Yunnan, where, in 2013, fragments of RaTG13, the closest known relative of SARSCoV-2, were recovered and transported to the Wuhan Institute of Virology; 2. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, where Shi Zhengli’s team brought the RaTG13 sample, sequenced its genome, then took it out of the freezer several times in recent years; 3. The Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which first reported signs of the novel coronavirus in hospital patients; 4. The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, an early suspected origin of the pandemic, where the first major outbreak occurred. Illustration: Map by Jason Lee

read more


Where Did It Come From? @NYMag
China


1. The Tongguan Mine Shaft in Mojiang, Yunnan, where, in 2013, fragments of RaTG13, the closest known relative of SARSCoV-2, were recovered and transported to the Wuhan Institute of Virology; 2. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, where Shi Zhengli’s team brought the RaTG13 sample, sequenced its genome, then took it out of the freezer several times in recent years; 3. The Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which first reported signs of the novel coronavirus in hospital patients; 4. The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, an early suspected origin of the pandemic, where the first major outbreak occurred. Illustration: Map by Jason Lee



read more






.@WorldBank GDP will expand 4% in 2021, less than the 4.2% forecast in June, followed by 3.8% growth in 2022 @business
World Of Finance


The development lender cited an “exceptional level of uncertainty” about the near-term outlook for the best growth since 2010 after an estimated 4.3% contraction last year. 


The bank said the global community must collaborate to ease debt burdens after government borrowing in emerging and developing economies likely surged by 9 percentage points of GDP in 2020, the most since a series of late 1980s debt crises.

While emerging and developing economies are forecast to grow 5% this year and 4.2% next year, such improvement largely reflects the recovery in China, where the virus has been significantly contained. 

Excluding the world’s second-largest economy, those countries are projected to grow just 3.4% and 3.6% this year and next as the pandemic continues to weigh on consumption and investment.


The report includes two adverse scenarios; one where new infections remain elevated in much of the world, and a second where vaccination delays re-ignite financial stress that spurs widespread corporate and sovereign defaults.

Such outcomes could mean just 1.6% growth this year or even another global contraction.

The International Monetary Fund in October slightly lowered its 2021 growth forecast to 5.2%, warning that despite massive stimulus from central banks and governments the world still faces an uneven recovery until the virus is tamed.

The IMF typically issues a late-January update to its projections. The methodologies are different because IMF aggregate forecasts are based on purchasing-power parity, which gives more weight to developing economies, while the World Bank uses market exchange rates.

Other highlights from the World Bank report include:

2021 U.S. growth forecast cut to 3.5% from 4% in June on subdued demand seen in the early part of the year amid new restrictions and a broad virus resurgence

Euro area projection reduced to 3.6% from 4.5% following stringent lockdowns, with sectors like tourism likely to remain depressed

Latin America estimate raised to 3.7% from 2.8% on prospects for restrictions easing, faster vaccinations in the second half, and rising oil and metal prices

Global trade volume growth forecast cut slightly to 5% in 2021 following a 9.5% contraction last year



read more



04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021 Therefore the Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved.
Misc.




The ''warp speed'' Vaccine Roll Out is chasing the coat Tails of the Virus.

''Reported'' Daily numbers are in the 650,000 to 750,000 daily range and set to undergo an exponential Phase Shift higher this month.

Therefore the Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved.



read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2333

Dollar Index 89.36

Japan Yen 102.77

Swiss Franc 0.87699

Pound 1.3643

Aussie 0.7793

India Rupee 73.1355

South Korea Won 1086.70

Brazil Real 5.2856

Egypt Pound 15.6781

South Africa Rand 14.9730



read more




The Dollar has been a one way Bet to the downside since H2 2020 Whilst the Trend is Your Friend I would be buying 1 Year Call Options because the risk with the Dollar remains asymmetric and to the Upside
World Currencies

The Dollar has been a one way Bet to the downside since H2 2020 and has underpinned the rebound in the Commodity Markets and in EM Assets. Whilst the Trend is Your Friend I would be buying 1 Year Call Options because the risk with the Dollar remains asymmetric and to the Upside 

read more



Tourism Tumbles To 1990 Levels As Pandemic Halts Travel @zerohedge
Tourism, Travel & Transport


As 2020 drew to a close with severe limitations to travel still in place, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) expects international arrivals to have declined by 70 to 75 percent compared to the previous year. 

As Statista's Felix Richter writes, that equates to a decline of around 1 billion international arrivals, bringing the industry back to 1990 levels.


Since 1980, the number of international arrivals skyrocketed from 277 million to nearly 1.5 billion in 2019. 

As Statista's chart above shows, the two largest crises of the past decades, the SARS epidemic of 2003 and the global financial crisis of 2009, were minor bumps in the road compared to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking ahead, most experts don't expect a full recovery in 2021, which started off with many countries still battling the second wave of the pandemic. 

According to the UNWTO's estimates, it will take the industry between 2.5 and 4 years to return to pre-pandemic levels of international tourist arrivals.


read more



Bitcoin hits a new record topping $35,000. @tracyalloway [Short Small with a $40,000 STOP] 34,482.00
World Currencies


I believe $BTC's recent surge puts it now in ''nose-bleed'' territory. I believe its a Trading Sell with a very wide Stop. It is currently at its maximum ''Safe Haven'' / Fiat debasement premia. 04-JAN-2021 ::  What Will Happen In 2021


read more


How's the avocado market? @jeffh690
World Currencies



08-JAN-2018 :: The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy.


The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.


Gladwellian level move. “The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire”- Malcolm Gladwell. 

High tech, millenial, crypto, avocado economy exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential and even non-linear characteristics not unlike Ebola.


read more









GDP growth in SSA for 2020e v. 2021f: @MihrThakar
Africa


Côte d'Ivoire +1.8% v. +5.5%

Ghana +1.1% v. +1.4%

Kenya -1% v. +6.9%

Nigeria -4.1% v. +1.1%

Rwandan -0.2% v. +5.7%

South Africa -7.8% v. +3.3%

Tanzania +2.5% v. +5.5%

Uganda +2.9% v. +2.8%

read more



CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ: Confirmed: 2 852 083 (+ 21682)Actives: 422 595 (+ 5241) @NCoVAfrica
Africa


Confirmed: 2 852 083 (+ 21682)

Actives: 422 595 (+ 5241)

Deaths: 67 934 (+ 684)

Recoveries: 2 359 686 (+ 15757)

read more












#COVIDー19 cases in South Africa number of days per 100k Another 100k #COVID19 cases confirmed in South Africa in just the past 7 days - fastest to date @rid1tweets
Africa



0-100k: 110 days

100-200k: 14 days

200-300k: 9 days

300-400k: 8 days

400-500k: 9 days

500-600k: 20 days

600-700k: 56 days

700-800k: 48 days

800-900k: 15 days

900k-1 Million: 9 days


Another 100k #COVID19 cases confirmed in South Africa in just the past 7 days - fastest to date 

read more


This terrifying chart, comparing the first and second waves of officially reported COVID deaths in Western Cape, was shared with me by Prof. Tom Moultrie @tomtom_m @geoffreyyork.
Africa


―They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.


Cape Town reports a 30% rise in burials in the past week. (Not all COVID-related.) @geoffreyyork


Cape Town reports a 30% rise in burials in the past week. (Not all COVID-related.) "The sad reality is that our cemeteries will be busier in the weeks ahead. Our staff have expressed concern about funerals and the lack of social distancing," city councillor Zahid Badroodien says.

read more


Will SA do another hard lockdown even when the first one didn't succeed in beating the first COVID wave They have to weigh up the crushing economic hit vs saving 100-200k lives .. thread @RencapMan
Africa

Will SA do another hard lockdown even when the first one didn't succeed in beating the first COVID wave (probably because working from home is not a realistic option - as per the tweet below) ? They have to weigh up the crushing economic hit  vs saving 100-200k lives .. thread

read more


But a lockdown would smash 3-4% GDP growth hopes, drive up public debt and can SA afford it? @RencapMan
Africa

But a lockdown would smash 3-4% GDP growth hopes, drive up public debt and can SA afford it? Leaving aside 30%+ unemployment, does the country go to the IMF for a formal deal, does the SARB print a lot more money or is pressure imposed on pension funds? Any thoughts?

read more











.@IMFNews Kenya risks Eurobond access over debt pile up @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


The IMF’s latest assessment of Kenya’s debt sustainability shows the country is likely to breach the threshold over the next decade going by the level of external loans against the value of dollar-earning exports, tax revenues and gross domestic product (GDP)—factors that drive lending decisions and pricing of sovereign debt.

Official data shows that Kenya’s debt stood at 69.2 percent of the GDP in August 2020, having climbed from 61.7 percent at the end of 2019 and 50.2 percent at the end of 2015.

“The DSA (Debt Sustainability Assessment) suggests that Kenya is susceptible to export and market financing shocks and more prolonged and protracted shocks to the economy would also present downside risks to the debt outlook, including from the continued potential loss of market access for frontier economies at reasonable prices, thus raising the probability that the debt indicators would remain in breach of the thresholds over time,” the IMF said 

The IMF warning comes barely a month after Treasury Cabinet Secretary Ukur Yatani told Parliament that Kenya expects to return to the Eurobond market in 2024 to refinance Sh130billion ($1.2billion) maturing bonds it borrowed in 2014.

Sub-Saharan African countries have been tapping cheap dollar loans that saw outstanding debt nearly double to $625 billion between 2011 and 2019, according to the World Bank. 

But now the continent is facing jittery investors since Zambia defaulted on its Eurobonds and other countries restructured bilateral loans under a deal offered by the Group of 20 of leading economies.

The IMF projects that Kenya’s debt in present value terms will hit 69.9 percent of the GDP in 2022 and breach the 70 percent threshold up to 2024 when the country is scheduled to settle the 2014 Eurobond in a bullet payment -- a single repayment of principal of a bond or loan on its maturity date.

The fund’s assessment further shows that Kenya will also be in breach of the amount of interest payments against dollar-earning exports and debt service against tax revenues in 2024.

The country has recently turned to expensive commercial loans to refinance maturing debt and fund the budget. 

These include syndicated loans arranged by banks which are short-term and charge interest rates as high as eight percent.

In 2013 only seven percent of external debt was commercial, 27 percent bilateral and 64 percent borrowed from multilateral sources.

Currently, commercial debt makes up 31 percent of foreign loans, bilateral debt is 30 percent while multilateral debt is 39 percent.

Out of Kenya’s Sh3.2 trillion external debt, $6.1 billion (Sh652.7 billion) is owed to holders of the country’s Eurobonds.

The current Jubilee administration has borrowed nine syndicated loans compared to a single one during the tenure of President Mwai Kibaki’s, reflecting the recent borrowing spree.

These have been borrowed from Standard Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Citi Bank, Trade Development Bank (former PTA Bank), Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) and Qatar National Bank.

TDB is Kenya’s biggest lender of syndicated loans and has issued the country with over Sh160 billion over the last four years.

The IMF and the World Bank are helping Kenya balance its books by offering low-cost loans with long grace periods and lengthy maturity to reduce interest payments and make debt easy to service.

Last year Kenya turned to the two institutions for cheaper concessional loans, tapping Sh100 billion from the World Bank and Sh79.3 billion from the IMF.

Kenya plans to borrow an additional $1.5 billion (Sh150 billion) from the World Bank in 2021 and take a $2.3 billion (Sh250.4 billion) loan facility from the IMF for budget support.

The loans are offered at less than two percent with a grace period of five years and a 30-year repayment period.

read more



Borrowers use chairs, TV, cows to access Sh26.8bn @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy



Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data shows that a third of the new loans of Sh84.6 billion issued by commercial banks between July and October used household goods, live animals and office equipment as collateral.

The Movable Property Security Rights Act 2017 has enabled banks to diversify collateral from the tradition of using immovable assets — primarily land and buildings — which are beyond the reach of most Kenyans.


read more







 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
Login / Register
 

 
 
Forgot your password? Register Now
 
 
January 2021
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENTS

 
In order to post a comment we require you to be logged in after registering with us and create an online profile.