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Friday 08th of January 2021
 

04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021
World Of Finance



We live in an Era of gobbledygook debate, a moment of complete combustion. Just open your social media account and its a torrent of bite sized nonsense. 

This is the Achilles Heel which the Sun Tzu Maestro Xi Jinping understood and the Viral War he launched was a perfectly aimed Bullet.

Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19. 

It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later. There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.

Those who have chosen to propagate this narrative are above the radar and in plain sight and need to be called to account. 

The Utter Failure to call these 5th columnists to Account is the clearest Signal that there is no external threat because it is already on the inside.

The ''warp speed'' Vaccine Roll Out is chasing the coat Tails of the Virus.


''Reported'' Daily numbers are in the 650,000 to 750,000 daily range and set to undergo an exponential Phase Shift higher this month.

Therefore the Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved.


Markets surfed higher last year on a simply unprecedented Liquidity Wave and it is difficult for now to see an About Face in that regard. 

In fact I expect all G7 Curves 0-10 Years to be deep in negative territory in 2021. [The Optimal Trade is to be long Dec 2021 Short Sterling or Call Options on the same contract LZ21 (Dec '21) 100.065s]

Developed Equity Markets were lifted to records by the Tidal wave of Free Money and clearly we can expect this Momentum to spill over into January. 

However, the dislocation between underlying economies and market capitalisation is now extreme and Buyers should remember the story of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Bubble.

Graham writes,

Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ‘could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.’ Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003’s] money. For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words ‘South Sea’ in his presence.

As I write this on the 3rd of January 2021 $BTC has touched 35,000.00 in a parabolic shift higher. I believe $BTC's recent surge puts it now in ''nose-bleed'' territory. I believe its a Trading Sell with a very wide Stop. It is currently at its maximum ''Safe Haven'' / Fiat debasement premia.


My Top Trades are Gold and Silver. I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00

I wish you a wonderful 2021.

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Alright, let me list them out….No way this is stopping at $27T of public debt. @TaviCosta
World Of Finance


Democratic sweep

Yellen’s return

IMF calling for a Great Reset

Fed saying: "not even thinking about thinking about raising rates"

Unlimited QE on autopilot

Twin deficits getting worse

No way this is stopping at $27T of public debt.

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Buyers should remember the story of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Bubble.
World Of Finance


However, the dislocation between underlying economies and market capitalisation is now extreme and Buyers should remember the story of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Bubble.

Graham writes, Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ‘could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.’ 

Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003’s] money. 

For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words ‘South Sea’ in his presence.

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The insane complacency of market participants: @dlacalle_IA
World Of Finance




Record margin debt

Record multiple expansion (above 3 standard deviations from historical median).

Record-high P/E and P/S



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Gerontion T. S. Eliot
Misc.



Thou hast nor youth nor age

          But as it were an after dinner sleep

          Dreaming of both.

Here I am, an old man in a dry month,

Being read to by a boy, waiting for rain.

I was neither at the hot gates

Nor fought in the warm rain

Nor knee deep in the salt marsh, heaving a cutlass,

Bitten by flies, fought.

My house is a decayed house,

And the jew squats on the window sill, the owner,

Spawned in some estaminet of Antwerp,

Blistered in Brussels, patched and peeled in London.

The goat coughs at night in the field overhead;

Rocks, moss, stonecrop, iron, merds.

The woman keeps the kitchen, makes tea,

Sneezes at evening, poking the peevish gutter.

 

                    I an old man,

A dull head among windy spaces.

 

Signs are taken for wonders. “We would see a sign”:

The word within a word, unable to speak a word,

Swaddled with darkness. In the juvescence of the year

Came Christ the tiger

 

In depraved May, dogwood and chestnut, flowering judas,

To be eaten, to be divided, to be drunk

Among whispers; by Mr. Silvero

With caressing hands, at Limoges

Who walked all night in the next room;

By Hakagawa, bowing among the Titians;

By Madame de Tornquist, in the dark room

Shifting the candles; Fraulein von Kulp

Who turned in the hall, one hand on the door. Vacant shuttles

Weave the wind. I have no ghosts,

An old man in a draughty house

Under a windy knob.

 

After such knowledge, what forgiveness? Think now

History has many cunning passages, contrived corridors

And issues, deceives with whispering ambitions,

Guides us by vanities. Think now

She gives when our attention is distracted

And what she gives, gives with such supple confusions

That the giving famishes the craving. Gives too late

What’s not believed in, or if still believed,

In memory only, reconsidered passion. Gives too soon

Into weak hands, what’s thought can be dispensed with

Till the refusal propagates a fear. Think

Neither fear nor courage saves us. Unnatural vices

Are fathered by our heroism. Virtues

Are forced upon us by our impudent crimes.

These tears are shaken from the wrath-bearing tree.

 

The tiger springs in the new year. Us he devours. Think at last

We have not reached conclusion, when I

Stiffen in a rented house. Think at last

I have not made this show purposelessly

And it is not by any concitation

Of the backward devils

I would meet you upon this honestly.

I that was near your heart was removed therefrom

To lose beauty in terror, terror in inquisition.

I have lost my passion: why should I need to keep it

Since what is kept must be adulterated?

I have lost my sight, smell, hearing, taste and touch:

How should I use it for your closer contact?

 

These with a thousand small deliberations

Protract the profit of their chilled delirium,

Excite the membrane, when the sense has cooled,

With pungent sauces, multiply variety

In a wilderness of mirrors. What will the spider do,

Suspend its operations, will the weevil

Delay? De Bailhache, Fresca, Mrs. Cammel, whirled

Beyond the circuit of the shuddering Bear

In fractured atoms. Gull against the wind, in the windy straits

Of Belle Isle, or running on the Horn,

White feathers in the snow, the Gulf claims,

And an old man driven by the Trades

To a a sleepy corner.

 

                    Tenants of the house,

Thoughts of a dry brain in a dry season.


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Global 855,351 new #COVID19 cases yesterday exponentially expanded total 0.97% to 88,024,087. This is above the 0.76% 1wk avg case growth rate (daily/total). @jmlukens
Misc.



Global 855,351 new #COVID19 cases yesterday exponentially expanded total 0.97% to 88,024,087.  This is above the 0.76% 1wk avg case growth rate (daily/total).  Total global deaths now 1,898,084 and 14,754 new deaths exponentially expanded total 0.78%.



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04-JAN-2021 :: ''Reported'' Daily numbers are in the 650,000 to 750,000 daily range and set to undergo an exponential Phase Shift higher this month.
Misc.





''Reported'' Daily numbers are in the 650,000 to 750,000 daily range and set to undergo an exponential Phase Shift higher this month.

Therefore the Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved.



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Data from #Covid19 worldwide on January 06: + 780 615 cases in 24 hours @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.



 + 780 615 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 87 187 240 in total

 + 14,995 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 1,884,461 in total

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@WHO Weekly epidemiological update - 5 January 2021
Misc.


For the third week in a row over 4 million new cases were reported globally, and new deaths increased by 3% to 76 000. 

This brings the cumulative numbers to over 83 million reported cases and over 1.8 million deaths globally since the start of the pandemic. 

Recent reports of different variants of SARS-CoV-2 have raised concern about and interest in the impact of viral changes. 

As of 5 January 2021, the VOC-202012/01 variant initially detected in the United Kingdom has been detected in a small number of cases in 40 other countries/territories/areas in five of the six WHO regions, and the 501Y.V2 variant initially detected in South African in six other countries/territories/areas.

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Today recorded the second highest number of reported deaths. @Marco_Piani
Misc.

The largest was one week ago, after the Christmas break, which explains why the 7-day avg did not go up today. Tomorrow could unfortunately see a larger number.

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There were 1,605,799 test results reported There were 243,346 positive tests. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 15.2% (red line is 7 day average). @RolandBakerIII
Misc.



22-MAR-2020 :: To watch the Daily Briefing is to understand that the Control Machine has a Novice, a hubristic Ignoramus in charge of the Console



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Brazil & Colombia new daily record #COVID19 cases yesterday
Misc.


South America most COVID-19 cases yesterday

#Brazil: 87,843

#Colombia: 17,576

#Argentina: 13,835

#Chile: 3,693

#Bolivia: 1,910

#CostaRica: 1,369

#Paraguay: 1,162

#DominicanRepublic: 1,115

#Ecuador: 1,008

#Uruguay: 759

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COVID-19 2wk avg increase case/day @jmlukens
Misc.


#Ireland: 525%

#Zambia: 355%

#Israel: 135%

#Bolivia: 124%

#Thailand: 99%

#Mozambique: 89%

#Egypt: 86%

#Lebanon: 78%

#Cuba: 78%

#Senegal: 71%

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Update of the heatmap of the number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 persons in London by age. @gforestier
Misc.



A value of 1012 between the 26-12 and the 01-01 for the "All ages" category means that 1% of all people living in London region tested positive for COVID-19 during these 7 days.



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Ireland 5,125 avg #COVID19 cases/day up 565% past 2wks. @jmlukens
Misc.


New daily case records in Monaco & Czechia.

Europe most COVID-19 2wk avg case/day increase

#Ireland: 565%

#Monaco: 72%

#Portugal: 71%

#Malta: 71%

#UK: 67%

#Spain: 39%

#Cyprus: 34%

#Norway: 34%

#Czechia: 31%

#Andorra: 28%

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"The president is in a very fragile mental state right now and he's not taking well to what's happening," Philip Rucker says. @MSNBC
Law & Politics


"He feels betrayed by his VP ... and a lot of admin. officials are very uncertain about what he might do tomorrow."

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Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Law & Politics


Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

Chancellor Merkel pronounced “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”

And wherever You care to turn whether it is the US under Trump, the United Kingdom under Boris Johnson, we are witnessing massive decline in the cognitive capacity of leadership and a steep decline in the intellectual capacity of the cognitive capacity of the corpus.

We live in an Era of gobbledygook debate, a moment of complete combustion. Just open your social media account and its a torrent of bite sized nonsense. 

This is the Achilles Heel which the Sun Tzu Maestro Xi Jinping understood and the Viral War he launched was a perfectly aimed Bullet.

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In many respects, 2020 was simultaneously both fathomable and unfathomable. it was fathomable because the Pathogen has always been there since time immemorial and lurking in the recesses.
Misc.

It was fathomable because Mankind has always reacted similarly as Nietzsche noted"Time is a flat circle. Everything we have done or will do we will do over and over and over again- forever."

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In fact I expect all G7 Curves 0-10 Years to be deep in negative territory in 2021.
World Of Finance


[The Optimal Trade is to be long Dec 2021 Short Sterling or Call Options on the same contract LZ21 (Dec '21) 100.065s]



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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.2260

Dollar Index 89.827

Japan Yen 103.875

Swiss Franc 0.88545

Pound 1.3583

Aussie 0.7785

India Rupee 73.3325

South Korea Won 1090.035

Brazil Real 5.4102

Egypt Pound 15.7042

South Africa Rand 15.36843

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04-JAN-2021 :: The Dollar has been a one way Bet to the downside since H2 2020 I would be buying 1 Year Call Options because the risk with the Dollar remains asymmetric and to the Upside
World Currencies


The Dollar has been a one way Bet to the downside since H2 2020 and has underpinned the rebound in the Commodity Markets and in EM Assets. 

Whilst the Trend is Your Friend I would be buying 1 Year Call Options because the risk with the Dollar remains asymmetric and to the Upside particularly if Economies do not meet some of the rose tinted spectacle forecasts for 2021 GDP.

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27 NOV 17 :: Bitcoin "Wow! What a Ride!"
World Currencies


My investment thesis at the start of the year was that Bitcoin was going to get main-streamed in 2017. It has main-streamed beyond my wildest dreams,


Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”


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$BTC appears to show an initial technical reaction at the 3.618 fib. @NorthmanTrader
World Currencies


Nobody can know where vertical momentum moves end, but vertical momentum chases have known to result in violent reversals.

Don't @ me about top calling, just pointing out a level.

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Some exchanges have actual Dollars and some only have Tethers. A few have both. If you want dollars, you have to get them from the former. @coloradotravis
World Currencies


Curiously, the tether-only ones are where you get insane leverage… but I digress, let's save that for the next time RT-Max stops by.

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And it's a fun one: go pull up a chart of XLMUSD (proposed capital carrier) @coloradotravis
World Currencies


Notice how that thing “moons” in November, and then again later?

Now:  guess when XLM volumes to Coinbase started...

Now this is a tidy transport mechanism!

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08-JAN-2018 :: The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy.
World Currencies


The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.

Gladwellian level move. “The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire”- Malcolm Gladwell. 

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@WHO Weekly epidemiological update - 5 January 2021 In the past week, over 130 000 new cases were reported in the African Region, a 13% increase compared to the previous week, and over 3000 deaths, a 4% increase over the previous week.
Africa



In the past week, South Africa reported the highest number of new cases (93 978 new cases; 1585 new cases per 1 million population)

Nigeria (5587 new cases; 27 new cases per 1 million),

Mauritania (3393 new cases, 730 new cases per 1 million) 

Namibia (3256 new cases, 1281 new cases per 1 million). 

The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from South Africa (2654 new deaths; 45 new deaths per 1 million), Mauritania (122 new deaths; 26 new deaths per 1 million) and the Kingdom of Eswatini (64 new deaths; 55 new deaths per 1 million).

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CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ: Confirmed: 2 914 589 (+ 35637) Actives: 447 430 (+ 17300) @NCoVAfrica
Africa



Confirmed: 2 914 589 (+ 35637)

Actives: 447 430 (+ 17300)

Deaths: 69 865 (+ 1108)

Recoveries: 2 395 426 (+ 17229)

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“We are inevitably edging toward the second wave of the pandemic on the continent,” Nkengasong said during the press briefing.
Africa


“We cannot relent; if we do, then all the sacrifices and investments we’ve put in the last 10 months will be wiped away.”

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Zambia 802 #COVID19 cases yesterday above 510/day 1wk avg already up 389% past 2wks. @jmlukens
Africa



Africa most COVID-19 avg cases/day

#SouthAfrica: 16,204

#Tunisia: 1,873

#Morocco: 1,355

#Nigeria: 1,190

#Zambia: 510

#Libya: 463

#Ethiopia: 423

#Namibia: 392

#Uganda: 265

#Algeria: 253


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Update: #COVID19 in #SouthAfrica 7 January 2021 • New cases = 20 999 • Active cases = 200 565 @rid1tweets
Africa


No new records today 

• New cases = 20 999

• New tests = 69 271

• Daily test positivity = 30.3% 

• New deaths reported = 441

• Active cases = 200 565

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The mutation in question, called E484K, changes the “receptor binding domain” — a key part of the spike protein that the virus uses to enter human cells. @FT
Commodities


The new coronavirus variant linked to a surge in Covid-19 cases in South Africa is not only more infectious than previous forms of the virus but could make some vaccines less effective.

Scientists racing to understand the new strain said they still expected the current crop of approved vaccines to work but were worried that a specific mutation, also identified in a new variant in Brazil, could affect the way the virus responds.

“At this moment, we think that a vaccine could be a little less effective,” Professor Tulio de Oliveira, of the University of KwaZulu-Natal, who is leading South Africa’s scientific effort to understand the 501Y.V2 strain, told the Financial Times. 

“[But] between all the varieties of vaccines that are coming to the market, we still have strong belief that some of them will be very effective.”

The mutation in question, called E484K, changes the “receptor binding domain” — a key part of the spike protein that the virus uses to enter human cells. 

This is also an important site at which neutralising antibodies induced by infection or vaccination bind to the virus.

A team at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has assessed the ability of antibodies taken from people previously infected with Sars-Cov-2 to neutralise various new strains of coronavirus.

Their study, released on Tuesday but not peer-reviewed, found that “emerging lineages in South Africa and Brazil carrying the E484K mutation will have greatly reduced susceptibility to neutralisation by the . . . serum antibodies of some individuals”.

 However, the effect was much stronger in some people than others, the paper said.

Prof de Oliveira’s team in South Africa have reached similar conclusions. “This finding about antibody neutralisation was highlighted very strongly in our paper,” he said. “There is a reason to be concerned.”

Prof de Oliveira added that his team had spent “the last 15 days, working day and night, with the top laboratories in South Africa” and would release “strong preliminary results” soon.

The 501Y.V2 variant emerged in August in South Africa’s Nelson Mandela Bay in the Eastern Cape, before spreading to other provinces as the country’s second wave of Covid-19 infections accelerated in recent weeks. 

Out of South Africa’s 1.1m total confirmed cases to date, about 100,000 have been in the past seven days.

Coronavirus variants are emerging around the world as Sars-Cov-2 passes between tens of millions of people. 

On average, the virus accumulates about two mutations per month but it can change more quickly under some circumstances — for example within an individual who has a suppressed immune system and remains infected for many weeks.

The South African and Brazilian strains share several mutations with the fast-spreading B.1.1.7 variant in the UK, which made its first known appearance in Kent in late September. But B.1.1.7 does not have the E484K mutation.

For this reason, “most scientists with a view on these variants are more concerned about the South African one than the Kent one,” said Francois Balloux, director of the University College London Genetics Institute.

Matt Hancock, the UK health secretary, has expressed concern about the South African variant on several occasions saying on Monday that he was “incredibly worried”.

Prof de Oliveira described Mr Hancock’s comments, which were perceived by some in South Africa as an attempt to deflect attention from the UK, as “very unfortunate”.

“We are really trying our best to see if that politicisation can decrease,” he said. “We are working very closely with British scientists. We have been exchanging data and knowledge on an almost daily basis on the scientific front. Our job as the global scientific community is to try and de-escalate that kind of tension.”

The UK and South Africa — unlike most other countries — have conducted extensive genomic sequencing throughout the pandemic, enabling health officials to track mutations quickly. 

This could mean that other more infectious variants are already spreading in other countries undetected.

So far, no new Sars-Cov-2 variant is known to cause more severe disease than the original virus that emerged in China at the end of 2019, but more rapid rates of transmission have piled greater pressure on hospitals and health systems.

“The main take-home message is that we should not be playing with this virus by letting it transmit for so long,” said Prof de Oliveira. 

“More than ever, this is a global problem and we should be looking for a global coalition to respond.”

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THE VACCINE STORY IS ANOTHER MYTH
Africa


No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud

What if, as I fear, there will never be a vaccine. I was involved in the early stages of identifying the HIV virus as the cause of Aids. 

I remember drugs companies back then saying there would be a vaccine within around 18 months. Some 37 years on, we are still waiting. Prof ANGUS DALGLEISH @MailOnline

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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