However, It is a Game of Chicken.

The US cannot afford a further spike in Yield

Experts have warned of potential mental health issues and deaths as stronger drugs and lower intolerances combine when music festivals return this summer.

With the planned ending of all COVID restrictions on 21 June, some festivals have already announced that they will welcome crowds back for a summer of partying this year.

However, a criminology professor has told MPs that months of pent-up desire to party, stronger drugs and reduced tolerance from not taking them during lockdown could cause a “summer of chaos”.

Speaking to the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) Committee, Fiona Measham – who is also a director of Loop, which provides free drug testing at festivals – said that hedonism at this year's events was a “particular concern”.

She told MPs: “For this summer in particular we are concerned.

Measham said that a new, powerful ecstasy tablet had been identified in Switzerland, which had “the highest strength ever recorded, over 250mg of MDMA, which is probably four times an adult dose”.

In normal years, Loop is able to test drugs in circulation from May and can report any that are particularly concerning to the authorities.

However, festival season will start later this year because of COVID restrictions, and uncertainty about concrete dates means the ability to potentially prevent hospitalisations and deaths from dangerous drugs could be inhibited.

Also speaking at the Committee, assistant chief constable Justin Bibby of Staffordshire police said there may be an increase in drug-taking behaviour because people have “been inside for a long time”.

He added: “My view would be that it will certainly be a period of time to see increased risky behaviour and perhaps some of the things we faced in the past may well be exaggerated.”

Responding to the evidence at the Committee, chairman Julian Knight MP said he had “grave concerns” and would be “raising the alarm” with the government about the potential risks of festival season.

He added: “The uncertainty surrounding if and when festivals take place, a huge pent-up demand from the public, combined with a ready supply of high-risk drugs risks spelling disaster this summer.”

It certainly is a new c21st that we find ourselves in. There is a luminous and Fairy Tale feel to life in quarantine and as you know most fairy tales have an oftentimes dark and dangerous and unspoken undercurrent. 

I sit in my study and its as if my hearing is sharpened. I hear the Breeze, birdsong, Nature in its many forms and the urban background noise which was once the constant accompaniment to daily life has entirely retreated. 

The Nights are dark, the stars are bright and the neighbiours long gone.

“Going home at night! It wasn't often that I was on the river at night. I never liked it. I never felt in control. In the darkness of river and forest you could be sure only of what you could see — and even on a moonlight night you couldn't see much. When you made a noise — dipped a paddle in the water — you heard yourself as though you were another person. The river and the forest were like presences, and much more powerful than you. You felt unprotected, an intruder ... You felt the land taking you back to something that was familiar, something you had known at some time but had forgotten or ignored, but which was always there.You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

So Lula opted for the next-best play: he completely changed the narrative by drawing a sharp contrast to the dreadful wasteland presided over by Bolsonaro 

He emphasized the welfare of Brazilian society; the necessary role of the state, as social provider and development organizer; and the imperative of creating jobs and raising people’s incomes.  

“I want the Armed Forces taking care of the nation’s sovereignty,” he stressed. The political message to the Brazilian military – who hold all the cards in the current political charade – was unmistakable.   

Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of March 17:  + 499,127 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 121,197,000 in total + 9,959 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,681,250 in total

Germany COVID update: New cases up 32% compared to last Wednesday

France COVID update: Daily cases at highest level since November, new restrictions likely

Just as they started growing this time (spring) last year & in the same places (Northeast and Mississippi / Louisiana)

And sure the numbers slid for around 6 consecutive weeks but they have bottomed out of late.

“I see a huge storm forming in Brazil.” Denise Garrett, vice president of the Sabin Vaccine Institute in Washington

The bottom line: P.1 is 2.5 times more transmissible than the wild-type B lineage. And way more transmissible than B.1.1.7. @bollemdb @obscovid19br 

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett 

Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen. Brazil is a global threat @bollemdb

Model-based evaluation of transmissibility and reinfection for the P.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2

https://j.mp/3rooXGK

The variant of concern (VOC) P.1 emerged in the Amazonas state (Brazil) and was sequenced for the first time on 6-Jan- 2021 by the Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

It contains a constellation of mutations, ten of them in the spike protein.

The P.1 variant shares mutations such as E484K, K417T, and N501Y and a deletion in the orf1b protein (del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF)) with other VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom and South Africa (B.1.1.7 and the B.1.351, respectively).

Prevalence of P.1 increased sharply from 0% in November 2020 to 73% in January 2021 and in less than 2 months replaced previous lineages (4).

The estimated relative transmissibility of P.1 is 2.5 (95% CI: 2.3-2.8) times higher than the infection rate of the wild variant, while the reinfection probability due to the new variant is 6.4% (95% CI: 5.7 - 7.1%).

If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but "variants" that [are] surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal

We all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'

COVID19 Historic Peaks Deaths a day @brodjustice

? s=20

I expect th P.1 Lineage to be dominant worldwide in 8-12 weeks notwithstanding the Focus on SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7

My Thesis is based on the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World.

Therefore, I would be tempering my COVID19 optimism and holding my horses which introduces interesting dynamics into the markets.

The onset dates of many (if not the majority) of these would typically be in Dec 2019.

The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524.

Xi has taken calculated risks.

The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19.

Euro 1.1946

Dollar Index 91.621

Japan Yen 109.08

Swiss Franc 0.9242

Pound 1.3964

Aussie 0.78065

India Rupee 72.571

South Korea Won 1125.49

Brazil Real 5.5855

Egypt Pound 15.713

South Africa Rand 14.7181

Front-loading should tame inflation expectations, support domestic assets, especially BRL.

He was one of a handful of world leaders, alongside former US President Donald Trump and Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro, who scoffed at the virus, championing alternative medicines.

Mr Magufuli called for prayer instead of face masks, before stopping the publication of statistics in April 2020 when the country had recorded a total of 509 cases and 16 deaths.

Tanzania became an outlier in a region which quickly implemented lockdowns, night-time curfews and travel restrictions to stem infections.

In May last year he revealed he had submitted a variety of fruit and animals to be tested for the virus and that a papaya, quail and goat tested positive, charging there had been "sabotage" at the national laboratory.

'There is no Covid-19'

Mr Magufuli later claimed prayer had saved the country from Covid-19.

"That's why we are all not wearing face masks here. You think we don't fear dying? It's because there is no Covid-19," he said.

Haina heshima wala utii

Haidekezi wala kujipendekeza

Haina ubaguzi wala ustaarabu

Haipendi wala kuchukia

Huwezi kuifunga wala kuifukuza

Huwezi kuitisha wala kuihonga

Haina uongo wala unafiki

Ukweli wake ni moja tu

INAUA INAUA INAUA

Corona is a disease

It has no dignity or obedience

It is neither flattering nor flattering

It is neither discriminatory nor civilized

Like it or not

You can't shut it down or chase it away

You cannot intimidate or bribe

It is neither false nor hypocritical

His truth is only one

KILLS KILLS KILLS KILLS

You can't kill it with a pistol

 ou can block it with bars

Biden’s presidency may not be transformative for Africa, but after Mr Trump’s overt disparagement of the continent, regional states can now look forward to a more practical and rules-based relationship with the US.

Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

-41.589% below record high from Jan 2021 

Conclusions 

Looks like the Trough and set for an Up Turn imminently 

The actual situation of #COVID19KE positive cases and deaths are currently underreported to MOH - for various reasons, so the real scenario is certainly much-much-much worse and can further deteriorate 

Par Value:                  1/-

Closing Price:           39.95

Total Shares Issued:          3087443344.00

Market Capitalization:        123,343,361,593

EPS:                6.10 

PE:                  6.549

KCB Full Year Results through 31st Dec 2020 

FY Total Assets 987.810b versus 898.572b

FY Financial Assets at Fair Value 94.284b versus 66.238b

FY Financial Assets at amortised cost 111.357b versus 96.977b

FY Loans and Advances to Customers [net] 595.255b versus 539.747b

FY Deposits from Customers 767.224b versus 686.583b

FY Net Interest Income 72.144b versus 61.424b

FY Non Interest Revenue 23.852b versus 22.877b

FY Total Income 95.996b versus 84.301b

FY Credit Impairment Losses [27.509b] versus [8.889b] 

FY Income after Impairment Charge 68.880b versus 75.412b

FY Total Operating Expenses [43.291b] versus [38.679b]

FY Profit Before Tax 25.719b versus 36.897b

FY Profit After Tax 19.604b versus 25.165b

FY EPS 6.10 versus 7.83 -22.094%

FY Dividend 1 versus 3.50

Cash and Cash Equivalents 65.174b

25.2M Customers

Restructured 3,800 SME loans valued at Kes 7.5 billion

98% Transactions performed outside the branch.

On average, tellers are now doing half of the daily transactions they used to do five years ago

-22% Decline in mobile banking revenues due to fee waivers

-27% Decline in total mobile loans Advanced driven by a 50% decline in KCB Mpesa disbursements

50% Growth in Agency Banking Volumes to Kes 448B due to continued shift to digital channels

19.6%  Proportion of KCB’s restructured loan book  representing total value of Kes. 106.1 billion

Cost to Income Ratio 44.7%

KCB Group Plc. reported a net profit of KShs. 19.6B for the full year ending December 2020. 

This was a 22% decline from the KShs.25.2B a year earlier as higher provisions for loan losses & subdued economic activity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic hit business performance.

Conclusions

Inexpensive on a PE Ratio of 6.549

A great deal will depend on the shape of the Rebound in 2021

I think there is plenty of scope with the subsidiaries over the next 5 years

Par Value:                  1/-

Closing Price:           12.85

Total Shares Issued:          5867179554.00

Market Capitalization:        75,393,257,269

EPS:             1.98 

PE:               6.489 

COOP GROUP FY Earnings through 31st Dec 2020 versus 31st Dec 2019 

FY Assets 536.945b versus 457.008b

FY Investment Securities held at Amortised Cost Kenya Government Securities 98.167673b versus 76.871525b

FY Investment Securities Fair Value through other comprehensive Income 63.718146b versus 40.931155b

FY Loans and Advances [net] to Customers 286.634b versus 266.712b

FY Customer Deposits 378.630453b versus 332.823917b

FY Total Interest Income 48.840645b versus 43.639479b

FY Total Interest Expenses 12.491679b versus 12.236147b

FY Net Interest Income 36.348966b versus 31.303331b

FY Total Non Interest Income 17.480723b versus 17.156662b

FY Total Operating Income 53.829689b versus 48.459993b

FY Loan Loss Provision 8.111824b versus 2.539071b

FY Staff Costs 13.421b versus 12.374217b

FY Other Operating Expenses 12.621578b versus 8.717b

FY Operating Expenses 39.397b versus 27.794b

FY Profit before Tax 14.281861b versus 20.705753b

FY Profit after Tax 10.812876b versus 14.311247b

FY EPS 1.98 versus 2.48

FY Dividend 1.00 unchanged 

Cash and Cash Equivalents 22.033b 

Conclusions

They lifted their loan Loss Provision sharply.

Would be interesting to know more detail around ''Other Operating Expenses''

The Dividend equates to a 7.78% Yield which will underpin the price

Its in an interesting niche which niche has plenty of room to leverage further