|
|
| |
| |
Wednesday 07th of April 2021
|
|
Morning
Africa
|
|
Register and its all Free.
|
| read more |
|
|
08-MAR-2021 :: Lights Must Never Go Out The World is pirouetting on the pinhead of the Yield of the US 10 YR
World Of Finance
|
|
|
|
|
Global 10 and 30 Year Yields: @PriapusIQ
World Of Finance
|
|
|
|
|
28-MAR-2021 I expect UST 10 YEAR YIELDS TO TARGET 1.45% [counterintuitive I know]
World Of Finance
|
|
|
|
|
Sunrise in Mombasa. Photo by @charlies_memoir @kenyapics
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
1000yr old City of Mombasa. Photo by @rootsofafrika_ @kenyapics
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Fort Jesus (Portuguese: Forte Jesus de Mombaça) Designed by Italian Giovanni Battista Cairati,[1] it was built between 1593 and 1596, by order of King Philip I of Portugal, to guard the Old Port of Mombasa
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
A magical moment - looking down onto a sea of clouds. Tanzania cannot see the full moon here because of cloud cover, but from the summit of Mt. Kilimanjaro, the weather is below and the heavens are above. @hallaboutafrica
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Luminous and Fairy Tale
Misc.
|
|
|
|
|
March was fun. Hello April. See you in May. @samdave69
Misc.
|
|
|
|
|
Sunrise above the Maasai Mara. Photo by Sophia @kenyapics
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
The Way We Live Now
World Of Finance
|
|
|
|
|
Sea urchin shells, a beautiful display of five-fold symmetry in nature. (by seagems_australia) @GeomeTribal
Misc.
|
|
|
|
|
Old Town, Nice @CNTraveler
Misc.
|
|
Nice’s colorful Vieille Ville, or Old Town, is a delightful maze of narrow streets full of lively restaurants, galleries, and shops.
There are cafés dotted all around the Old Town's many squares, so take the opportunity to sit down, coffee in hand, and people-watch the day away.
For a more active visit, spend some time strolling along the near-mile Promenade du Paillon, the city's public park and botanical garden that links the Museum of Modern and Contemporary Art (also worth visiting) and the Promenade des Anglais.
|
| read more |
|
|
Grasse is a quiet, pretty medieval village that also holds the distinction of being the world’s perfume capital. @CNTraveler
Misc.
|
|
While famous perfumeries like Fragonard offer free tours of their factories, the real reason to come here is to take in the near-endless fields of lavender that dominate the area’s hilly landscape.
|
| read more |
|
|
“Whoever controls the territory possesses it. Possession of territory is not primarily about laws and contracts, but first and foremost a matter of movement and circulation.”
Law & Politics
|
|
|
|
|
Welcome to Lamu @aomenya
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
The Pandemic is a Portal
World Of Finance
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Ruins of an 11th century temple (possibly Hindu origin based on the doorway architecture) in Watamu, Kenya @samdave69
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
As many as 1.3 million people born abroad left the UK in just over a year – from July 2019 to September 2020 – the UK’s (ESCoE) think-tank said on Thursday, describing an “unprecedented exodus” @AJENews
Misc.
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Political Reflections
Law & Politics
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law that could keep him in the Kremlin until 2036
Law & Politics
|
|
Conclusions
The @sputnikvaccine is the magic elixir of eternal life?
|
|
|
|
Putin's system was also ripe for export, Mr Surkov added. Foreign governments were already paying close attention, since the Russian "political algorithm" had long predicted the volatility now seen in western democracies.
Law & Politics
|
|
|
|
|
'Great damage’ caused to Iranian IRGC SAVIZ spy ship-base after it was targeted in the red sea, @AlHadath reports @AmichaiStein1
Law & Politics
|
|
|
|
|
06-JAN-2020 :: a major escalation in the “shadow war”.
Law & Politics
|
|
“This is an aggressive show of force and an outright provocation that could trigger another Middle East war.”
“This is how U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat spirals out of control. Iran’s response will be severe and deadly. And certainly may include escalating attacks on energy infrastructure.”
Later, Suleimani and the group stand on the banks of a creek, where he reads aloud the names of fallen Iranian soldiers, his voice trembling with emotion.
During a break, he speaks with an inter- viewer and describes the fighting in near-mystical terms. “The battlefield is mankind’s lost paradise—the paradise in which morality and human conduct are at their highest,” he says.
“One type of paradise that men imagine is about streams, beautiful maidens, and lush landscape. But there is another kind of paradise—the battlefield.
”The front, he said, was “the lost paradise of the human beings.”
The supreme leader, who usually reserves his highest praise for fallen soldiers, has referred to Suleimani as “a living martyr of the revolution.” “In the end, he drank the sweet syrup of martyrdom.”-
|
|
|
|
7 straight weeks of global #COVID19 increase. @DrEricDing
Misc.
|
|
|
|
|
28-MAR-2021 :: Just a reminder that this pandemic, far from being over, is gathering steam once again globally with cases going up across the world. @kakape
Misc.
|
|
The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved though all the virologists who have metastasized into vaccinologists will have you believe its all sunlit uplands from here.
Glorious sunrise at the Borana conservancy @nickdimbleby @JamboMagazine
Lets start with headline numbers.
Just a reminder that this pandemic, far from being over, is gathering steam once again globally with cases going up across the world. @kakape
You can see infection numbers have been rising since early February.
Wave 3 - We are once again entering an exponential escape velocity Phase #COVID19
|
| read more |
|
|
At the current rate, the world will soon reach a new high for weekly case rates. @fibke
Misc.
|
|
|
|
|
8-MAR-2021 an exponential escape velocity Phase #COVID19
Misc.
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Weekly #COVID19 case incidence is still increasing ... with more than 4 million new cases reported last week. @mvankerkhove
Misc.
|
|
|
|
|
Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 6 April 2021 @WHO
Misc.
|
|
Globally, new COVID-19 cases rose for a sixth consecutive week, with over 4 million new cases reported in the last week.
The number of new deaths also increased by 11% compared to last week, with over 71 000 new deaths reported.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from India (513 885 new cases; 38% increase),
Brazil (505 668 new cases; 5% decrease),
United States of America (444 756 new cases; 5% increase),
Turkey (265 937 new cases; 43% increase),
France (244 607 new cases; 4% decrease)
|
| read more |
|
|
P.1 variant, which packs a suite of mutations that make it more transmissible is no longer just Brazil’s problem. It’s South America’s problem — and the world’s. @washingtonpost
Misc.
|
|
“It’s spreading,” said Julio Castro, a Venezuelan infectious-disease expert. “It’s impossible to stop.”
In Lima, scientists have detected the variant in 40 percent of coronavirus cases. In Uruguay, it’s been found in 30 percent. In Paraguay, officials say half of cases at the border with Brazil are P.1.
Other South American countries — Colombia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile — have discovered it in their territories.
Limitations in genomic sequencing have made it difficult to know the true breadth of the variant’s spread, but it has been identified in more than two dozen countries, from Japan to the United States.
“We share 1,000 kilometers of dry border with Brazil, the biggest factory of variants in the world and the epicenter of the crisis,” said Gonzalo Moratorio, a Uruguayan molecular virologist tracking the variant’s growth. “And now it’s not just one country.”
|
| read more |
|
|
BREAKING: Brazil reports record 4,195 new coronavirus deaths @BNODesk
Misc.
|
|
|
|
|
08-MAR-2021 My concern is that Brazil which was the epicenter of the Virus in May 2020 is once again a Precursor and a Harbinger
Misc.
|
|
“I see a huge storm forming in Brazil.” Denise Garrett, vice president of the Sabin Vaccine Institute in Washington
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen. Brazil is a global threat @bollemdbModel-based evaluation of transmissibility and reinfection for the P.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2
The variant of concern (VOC) P.1 emerged in the Amazonas state (Brazil) and was sequenced for the first time on 6-Jan- 2021 by the Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
It contains a constellation of mutations, ten of them in the spike protein.
The P.1 variant shares mutations such as E484K, K417T, and N501Y and a deletion in the orf1b protein (del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF)) with other VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom and South Africa (B.1.1.7 and the B.1.351, respectively).
Prevalence of P.1 increased sharply from 0% in November 2020 to 73% in January 2021 and in less than 2 months replaced previous lineages (4).
The estimated relative transmissibility of P.1 is 2.5 (95% CI: 2.3-2.8) times higher than the infection rate of the wild variant, while the reinfection probability due to the new variant is 6.4% (95% CI: 5.7 - 7.1%).
If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but "variants" that [are] surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal
I expect P.1 Lineage to be dominant worldwide in 8-12 weeks notwithstanding the Focus on SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7
My Thesis is based on the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World.
Therefore, I would be tempering my COVID19 optimism and holding my horses which introduces interesting dynamics into the markets.
|
| read more |
|
|
Covid nightmare: Vaccine panic as NEW Brazil variant 'alters itself to defeat antibodies'
Misc.
|
|
Mutations at both the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and the amino (N)-terminal domain (NTD) of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein can alter its antigenicity and promote immune escape.
We identified that SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Brazil with mutations of concern in the RBD independently acquired convergent deletions and insertions in the NTD of the S protein, which altered the NTD antigenic-supersite and other predicted epitopes at this region.
These findings support that the ongoing widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil is generating new viral lineages that might be more resistant to neutralization than parental variants of concern.
|
| read more |
|
|
India reports 115,262 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record @BNODesk
Misc.
|
|
|
|
|
We all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'
Misc.
|
|
|
|
|
International Markets
World Of Finance
|
|
| read more |
|
|
The IMF projects the global economy to grow at 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, following an estimated historic contraction of –3.3% in 2020 #WEO @IMFNews
World Of Finance
|
|
|
|
|
Executive Summary @IMFNews #WEO April 2021
World Of Finance
|
|
One year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the accumulating human toll continues to raise concerns, even as growing vaccine coverage lifts sentiment. High uncertainty surrounds the global economic outlook, primarily related to the path of the pandemic
Improved outlook: After an estimated contraction of –3.3 percent in 2020, the global economy is projected to grow at 6 percent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022.
Divergent impacts: Output losses have been particularly large for countries that rely on tourism and commodity exports and for those with limited policy space to respond.
High uncertainty surrounds the global outlook. Future developments will depend on the path of the health crisis, including whether the new COVID-19 strains prove susceptible to vaccines or they prolong the pandemic
|
| read more |
|
|
IMF World Economic Outlook: #WEO @PriapusIQ
World Of Finance
|
|
Global GDP growth forecasts upgraded for 2021 (+0.5ppts) and 2022 (+0.2ppts)
Advanced Economies forecasts upgraded for 2021 (+0.8ppts) and 2022 (+0.5ppts)
EM forecast upped for 2021 (+0.4ppts) and unch. for 2022
|
|
|
|
@IMFNews #WEO April 2021
World Of Finance
|
|
| read more |
|
|
@Nouriel Warns Higher U.S. Yields Will Bite in Era of Excess Risk @markets
World Of Finance
|
|
A fresh spike in Treasury yields will rattle markets and could send more family offices and hedge funds down a similar path to Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management, according to Nouriel Roubini.
Roubini, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and a former adviser to the U.S. government, said the combination of low-to-negative rates across advanced economies and fiscal stimulus is leading investors to take excessive risk.
He pointed to cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratios at highs seen in 1929 and the early 2000s as one sign of the recklessness.
“We’re seeing widespread frothiness, bubbles, risk-taking and leverage,” Roubini said on Bloomberg TV.
“Lots of players have taken too much leverage and too much risk and some of them are going to blow up.”
The professor, who earned the nickname “Dr. Doom” for his ominous prognostications about the economy and financial system, joins investors including Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Investments in warning that more Archegos-style meltdowns could be triggered.
Roubini said one shock could come if 10-year U.S. Treasury yields climb higher than 2% this year.
Other risks include the return of inflation and the prospect of a hot war between the U.S. and China, he said.
While a stronger dollar has led some hedge funds and other investors to capitulate on their bearish bets, the greenback will weaken over the medium term as twin deficits in the world’s largest economy widen, according to Roubini.
Meantime, U.S. sanctions may lead countries like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea to diversify away from dollar assets.
“Even if in the short-term growth outcomes in the U.S. strengthen the dollar, the direction of the dollar is south over time,” he said.
|
| read more |
|
|
08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding [What happens when the Wilding stops]
World Of Finance
|
|
|
|
|
Title: Bar, Las Vegas, Nevada Artist: Robert Frank
Misc.
|
|
| read more |
|
|
28-MAR-2021 :: I expect China to occupy Taiwan before the end of the year
World Of Finance
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
|
|
Euro 1.1876
Dollar Index 92.38
Japan Yen 109.77
Swiss Franc 0.9299
Pound 1.3794
Aussie 0.7640
India Rupee 74.179
South Korea Won 1117.165
Brazil Real 5.5916
Egypt Pound 15.6999
South Africa Rand 14.5294
|
| read more |
|
|
Dollar Index Chart INO 92.35 [trades back to 90.00?]
World Currencies
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1872
World Currencies
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Spot gold rises nearly 1% to $1,744.96/oz @PriapusIQ 1740.50
Commodities
|
|
|
|
|
28-MAR-2021 :: GOLD HAS COMPLETED ITS CONSOLIDATION AND IS HEADED BACK TO ATHS
Commodities
|
|
| read more |
|
|
28-MAR-2021 :: CRUDE OIL IS OVERCOOKED ABOVE $60.00 AND WILL FALL SHARPLY AFTER THE SUEZ SITUATION IS RESOLVED
Commodities
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Crude Oil Chart INO 59.55
Commodities
|
|
| read more |
|
|
SSA @IMFNews #WEO April 2021 H/T @Matlala_S
Africa
|
|
| read more |
|
|
15-MAR-2021 :: Africa Emerging from The Pandemic
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
IMF GDP Growth Forecasts 2021 #WEO @Rob_Kimbell
Africa
|
|
+8.7% Botswana
+7.6% Kenya
+6.6% Mauritius
+6.3% Uganda
+6.0% Gambia
+5.7% Rwanda
+4.6% Ghana
+3.4% Cameroon
+3.1% South Africa
+3.0% Sierra Leone
+2.7% Tanzania
+2.6% Namibia
+2.2% Malawi
+2.1% Mozambique
+1.8% Seychelles
+1.5% Nigeria
+0.6% Zambia
|
|
|
|
December 9, 2019 They are still popping Quaaludes in Lusaka.
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Zimbabwe is one of the few countries where people got poorer in the last 4 decades. @MaxCRoser
Africa
|
|
On the left you see the decline in GDP per capita and on the right you how household incomes changed at the same time – the share of people who live in extreme poverty increased.
|
|
|
|
According to IMF's #WEO released today, in 2020 only 2 #HornOfAfrica countries achieved a #current_account surplus, #Djibouti (2.9% of GDP) & #Eritrea (10.7%). @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa
|
|
#Sudan (-17.5%) & #Somalia (-13.3%) exhibited large deficits. For #Kenya, #Ethiopia, #South_Sudan deficits averaged-4.5%
|
|
|
|
WHO regional overviews African Region Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 6 April 2021 @WHO
Africa
|
|
The Region reported around 59 000 new cases and 1000 new deaths last week, a 6% and 20% decrease respectively compared to the previous week.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from
Ethiopia (14 517 new cases; 12.6 new cases per 100 000 population; a 10% increase)
Kenya (8747 new cases; 16.3 new cases per 100 000; a 5% decrease),
South Africa (7035 new cases; 11.9 new cases per 100 000; an 8% decrease).
The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from South Africa (306 new deaths; 0.5 new deaths per 100 000 population; a 46% decrease)
Ethiopia (152 new deaths; <0.1 new deaths per 100 000; a 11% increase),
Kenya (102 new deaths; 0.2 new deaths per 100 000; a 13% decrease)
|
| read more |
|
|
''A decline in the pandemic’s trajectory seen since January has now plateaued." - Dr @RichardMihigo @WHOAFRO
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
337,085 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData
Africa
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Active #Covid19 cases record 520,000 was in January 2021 @NKCAfrica
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 77 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Africa
|
|
| read more |
|
|
We all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
The reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa is currently at 1.1 [1.10 - 1.15]. This is the estimate for the 7 days ending 29 March. @lrossouw
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Drinking the Kool-Aid #COVID19
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
#Malawi - Journalist Watipaso Mzungu summoned to area 30 police headquarters in Lilongwe allegedly over a story that described president Lazarus Chakwera as a joker, a time-waster and a comedian @DrumChronicles
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Starving Tigray How Armed Conflict and Mass Atrocities Have Destroyed an Ethiopian Region’s Economy and Food System and Are Threatening Famine WPF
Africa
|
|
'They have destroyed Tigray, literally.’ Mulugeta Gebrehiwot speaking by phone from Tigray January 27, 2021
the sole reason for the scale of the humanitarian emergency is that the coalition of Ethiopian Federal forces, Amhara regional forces, and Eritrean troops are committing starvation crimes on large scale.
This report does not go into legal details, but we believe that accountability for mass starvation crimes should follow.
|
| read more |
|
|
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Africa
|
|
| read more |
|
|
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa
|
|
Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
|
| read more |
|
|
Rapid Support Forces - قوات الدعم السريع @RSFSudan
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Or alternatively @TheEconomist whether @PMEthiopia can sustain an occupation given that one suspects there are equally restive regions
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
The metical has appreciated 14% against the dollar since the beginning of February, making it the world’s best performing currency in the period. @markets
Africa
|
|
A deadly raid by insurgents that stopped work at a gas project that Mozambique depends on for an economic revival has done little to derail a world-beating rally in the country’s currency.
The metical has appreciated 14% against the dollar since the beginning of February, making it the world’s best performing currency in the period.
And its stellar run isn’t over yet, according to Rand Merchant Bank’s Johannesburg-based analysts Neville Mandimika and Daniel Kavishe.
“Given the excess dollar liquidity in the market, as aggregate mining activity gains traction, we expect the metical to strengthen,” they said in a note Tuesday.
“We expect the central bank to allow for further build-up in dollar liquidity, which will see the currency strengthen even further, in order to counter the effects of import inflation.”
Total SE evacuated workers from its $20 billion liquefied natural-gas project in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province last month for the second time this year, following an attack on a nearby town that houses many contractors.
The company hasn’t given a date by which it’ll resume work on the project, that was scheduled to start exporting the fuel in 2024.
Mozambique’s currency has appreciated even as its dollar bonds fell to the lowest since June, with yields spiking to 10.7%.
The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its economic-growth forecast for Mozambique to 1.6% this year, from 2.1% it had predicted in October.
|
| read more |
|
|
Contrary to some optimistic reports, Zambia is 'very far' from securing a bail-out deal from the @IMFNews banking and official sources have told @Africa_Conf
Africa
|
|
It is less than six weeks from the time when government effectively shuts down for campaigning for the general election on 12 August, making any breakthrough on Zambia's massive debt even less likely.
At the same time, a new assessment by a leading bank of a higher than previously reported level of debt has been leaked to Africa Confidential.
|
| read more |
|
|
14-OCT-2019 ::The Canary in the Coal Mine is Zambia
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
@akcakmak South Africa SSA @IMFNews #WEO @MwangoCapital
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.5284
Africa
|
|
| read more |
|
|
@akcakmak Egypt SSA @IMFNews #WEO @MwangoCapital
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.6998
Africa
|
|
| read more |
|
|
@akcakmak Nigeria SSA @IMFNews #WEO @MwangoCapital
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
|
|
| read more |
|
|
@akcakmak Kenya SSA @IMFNews #WEO @MwangoCapital
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
Looking at document behind new #Kenya IMF can see 2 clear debt vulnerabilities, that make Kenya "High risk" debt distress, per IMF metrics @emsovdebt
Africa
|
|
|
|
|
1. Overall public debt = high (ie debt in foreign+local currency) trended (blue line) above IMF's idea of level where debt is sustainable (green line, at 55% GDP). @emsovdebt
Kenyan Economy
|
|
Public debt: 2015=49%, 2019=62%, 2020=72%. Program expects assumes it stabilise here & then drop (let's see)
|
|
|
|
2. in my view more pressing vulnerability is: cost of servicing external debt (mostly in $) vs earnings from exports. Here there's a gap between trend (blue) & threshold (green). @emsovdebt
Kenyan Economy
|
|
Refinancing the $2bn eurobond (due in 2024) way ahead of time will help (active debt managementWhite heavy check mark)
|
|
|
|
Kenya Airways announces it will suspend all flights to UK from 9 April citing directive from Kenya government. @RAbdiAnalyst
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
|
|
Row triggered when UK put Kenya on its Covid-19 "Red List". Kenya retaliated with 14 day quarantine for UK nationals.
|
|
|
|
Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
World Currencies
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
|
|
| read more |
|
|
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
|
|
| read more |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
