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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 16th of April 2021

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28-MAR-2021 :: I expect UST 10 YEAR YIELDS TO TARGET 1.45%
World Of Finance

Mar 20 Powell has the “shorts” where he wants them. 

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What Is the Geometry of the Universe? @QuantaMagazine

When you gaze out at the night sky, space seems to extend forever in all directions. That’s our mental model for the universe, but it’s not necessarily correct. 

There was a time, after all, when everyone thought the Earth was flat, because our planet’s curvature was too subtle to detect and a spherical Earth was unfathomable.

Today, we know the Earth is shaped like a sphere. But most of us give little thought to the shape of the universe. 

Just as the sphere offered an alternative to a flat Earth, other three-dimensional shapes offer alternatives to “ordinary” infinite space.

We can ask two separate but interrelated questions about the shape of the universe. One is about its geometry: the fine-grained local measurements of things like angles and areas. 

The other is about its topology: how these local pieces are stitched together into an overarching shape.

Cosmological evidence suggests that the part of the universe we can see is smooth and homogeneous, at least approximately. 

The local fabric of space looks much the same at every point and in every direction. Only three geometries fit this description: flat, spherical and hyperbolic

Let’s explore these geometries, some topological considerations, and what the cosmological evidence says about which shapes best describe our universe.

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Just landed in Delhi. @ErikSolheim

New Delhi announces partial weekend lockdown due to surge in coronavirus cases @BNODesk

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1-4-2-1. The first 1 refers to defending what has since come to be called the homeland. 

The 4 refers to deterring hostilities in four key regions of the world. 

The 2 means the U.S. armed forces must have the strength to win swiftly in two near-simultaneous conflicts in those regions. 

The final 1 means that we must win one of those conflicts “decisively,” toppling the enemy’s regime.

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Chinese fighter jets will fly over Taiwan to "declare sovereignty" @globaltimesnews @HuXijin_GT @Newsweek
Law & Politics

"If Taiwan forces open fire, that will be the moment of all-out war across the Taiwan Strait,"  @HuXijin_GT added

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“Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,”
Law & Politics

“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!” 

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28-MAR-2021 :: We are once again entering an exponential escape velocity Phase #COVID19

The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved though all the virologists who have metastasized into vaccinologists will have you believe its all sunlit uplands from here. 

Glorious sunrise at the Borana conservancy @nickdimbleby @JamboMagazine

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Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of April 14: + 816,992 cases in 24 hours @CovidTracker_fr

Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of April 14: + 816,992 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 138,260,706 in total + 13,535 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,973,513 in total

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08-MAR-2021 :: I expect th P.1 Lineage to be dominant worldwide in 8-12 weeks notwithstanding the Focus on SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7

My Thesis is based on the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World.

Therefore, I would be tempering my COVID19 optimism and holding my horses which introduces interesting dynamics into the markets.

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Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil

Lineage P.1, acquired 17 mutations, including a trio in the spike protein (K417T, E484K and N501Y) associated with increased binding to the human ACE2 receptor. 

Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around mid-November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. 

Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, 

we estimate that P.1 may be 1.7–2.4-fold more transmissible, and that previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54–79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages.

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Model-based evaluation of transmissibility and reinfection for the P.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2

The variant of concern (VOC) P.1 emerged in the Amazonas state (Brazil) and was sequenced for the first time on 6-Jan- 2021 by the Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

It contains a constellation of mutations, ten of them in the spike protein.

The P.1 variant shares mutations such as E484K, K417T, and N501Y and a deletion in the orf1b protein (del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF)) with other VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom and South Africa (B.1.1.7 and the B.1.351, respectively).

Prevalence of P.1 increased sharply from 0% in November 2020 to 73% in January 2021 and in less than 2 months replaced previous lineages (4).

The estimated relative transmissibility of P.1 is 2.5 (95% CI: 2.3-2.8) times higher than the infection rate of the wild variant, while the reinfection probability due to the new variant is 6.4% (95% CI: 5.7 - 7.1%).

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SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England

Variant VOC-21JAN-02 

Lineage P.1

Growth rate (1/week) 0.44 (p=4.14e-05)

Variant VOC-20DEC-02

Lineage B.1.351

Growth rate (1/week) 0.16 (p=7.59e-10)

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The impact of viral mutations on recognition by SARS-CoV-2 specific T-cells [SARS-CoV-2 mutations impact T-cell recognition of virus]

Several variants within nucleocapsid and ORF3a epitopes have arisen independently in multiple lineages and result in loss of recognition by epitope-specific T-cells assessed by IFN-γ and cytotoxic killing assays. 

These data demonstrate the potential for T-cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T-cell as well as humoral immunity.

Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to evasion from adaptive immunity generated following infection and vaccination.

Little is known about the potential for SARS-CoV-2 mutations to impact T-cell recognition. 

Escape from antigen-specific CD8+ T-cells has been studied extensively in HIV-1 infection, where rapid intra-host evolution renders T-cell responses ineffective within weeks of acute infection

While these escape variants play an important role in the dynamics of chronic viral infections, the opportunities for T-cell escape in acute respiratory viral infections are fewer and consequences are different. 

Non-spike T-cell immune responses will also become increasingly important to vaccine-induced immunity as inactivated whole virus vaccines are rolled out. 

Our findings demonstrate the potential for T-cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T-cell as well as humoral immunity.

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Figure 1. Global presence of variants in key dominant SARS-CoV-2 epitopes.

A. Weekly frequency over time since beginning of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic of all variants studied in functional experiments. 

COG-UK global alignment dated 29th Jan 2021 and 309,119 sequences used. 

Variants named with prefix of SARS-CoV-2 protein (S=spike, N=nucleocapsid), followed by wild-type amino acid, position within protein and variant amino acid. 

B-E. Phylogenies representing global SARS-CoV-2 genomes depicting the presence of epitopes variants impacting T-cell responses. 

In each case, phylogenies represent all available variant sequences (red tips), along with a selection of non-variant sequences, which were subsampled for visualisation purposes. 

The bar to the right of each phylogeny is annotated by main ancestral lineages only and not each individual PANGO lineage that viruses belong to. 

The grapevine pipeline was used for generating the phylogeny based on all data available on GISAID and COG-UK up until 16th of February 2021.

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Now for the kicker on Evidence Based Science: New variant is here, all of the existing evidence is worthless, obsolete. @yaneerbaryam

What you gonna do? Start all over again? Or make incorrect assumption of independence from the change (not evidence based!).

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1983

Dollar Index 91.647

Japan Yen 108.86

Swiss Franc 0.9199

Pound 1.3752

Aussie 0.7752

India Rupee 74.3625

South Korea Won 1114.06

Brazil Real 5.6164

Egypt Pound 15.6807

South Africa Rand 14.2408

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City of London Brexit hit worse than expected, says study @Reuters
World Of Finance

Over 400 financial firms in Britain have shifted activities, staff and a combined trillion pounds ($1.4 trillion) in assets to hubs in the European Union due to Brexit, with more pain to come, a study from New Financial think tank said on Friday.

"We think it is an underestimate and we expect the numbers to increase over time: we are only at the end of the beginning of Brexit," the study said.

The EU has offered Britain little in the way of direct market access for financial services, which were not included in the bloc's trade deal with the United Kingdom from January.

"That access is unlikely to be forthcoming, so it is perhaps better for the industry to take the damage from Brexit on the chin and focus instead on recalibrating the framework in the UK so that it is more tailored to the unique nature of the UK financial services industry," the study said.

Some 7,400 jobs have moved from Britain or been created at new hubs in the EU, the study said. Bankers have told Reuters that some staff moves have been delayed due to COVID-19 travel restrictions.

The total of 440 relocations is higher than anticipated and well above the 269 in New Financial's 2019 survey. New Financial believes the real number is well over 500.

"We expect Frankfurt will be the 'winner' in terms of assets in the longer-term, and that Paris will ultimately be the biggest beneficiary in terms of jobs," the study said.

Amsterdam toppling London as Europe's biggest share trading centre since January has been the most visible sign of Brexit in finance.

The study expects that 300 to 500 smaller EU financial firms may open a permanent office in Britain, far fewer than the prevailing forecasts of around 1,000.

The City of London will remain the dominant financial centre in Europe for the foreseeable future, but its influence will be chipped away, risking a reduction in Britain's 26 billion pounds annual trade surplus in financial services with the EU, the study added.

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Sub-Saharan Africa Navigating a Long Pandemic #IMFAfrica @IMFNews

In this context, and despite a more buoyant external environment, sub-Saharan Africa will be the world’s slowest growing region in 2021

The global economy improved more rapidly than expected in the second half of 2020, with spillovers to the region in the form of increased trade, higher commodity prices, and a resumption of capital inflows. 

Estimates now suggest that sub-Saharan Africa contracted by –1.9 percent in 2020. This is better than anticipated last October (–3.0 percent) but is still the worst result on record.

Looking ahead, the region will grow by 3.4 percent in 2021, up from 3.1 percent projected in October, and supported by improved exports and commodity prices, along with a recovery in both private consumption and investment. 

However, per capita output is not expected to return to 2019 levels until after 2022—in many countries, per capita incomes will not return to precrisis levels before 2025.

On debt, seventeen countries were either in debt distress or at high risk of distress in 2020, one more than before the crisis—these countries include a number of small or fragile states, and represent about one-quarter of the region’s GDP, or 17 percent of the region’s debt stock.

In Nigeria, the economy contracted by 1.8 percent in 2020 and is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2021

Angola in 2021 is projected to expand for the first time in six years. The crisis resulted in an output drop of –4.0 percent in 2020, but growth is expected to recover modestly to 0.4 percent this year.

Ethiopia’s growth forecast for fiscal year 2020/21 has been revised upward from 0 to 2 percent because of higher-than-expected momentum from fiscal year 2019/20 along with the broader global recovery. 

But COVID-19-related uncertainty will still burden nonagricultural activity, and projections for agricultural output have been revised downward, reflecting the recent locust swarms and the conflict in Tigray. A new surge in COVID-19 cases started in January 2021.

Tourism-dependent countries (Cabo Verde, Comoros, The Gambia, Mauritius, São Tomé and Príncipe, Seychelles) face a particularly demanding challenge. 

As a critical source of employment, foreign exchange, and government revenue, tourist receipts came to an abrupt halt in the first half of 2020, shrinking the economy by as much as 14–16 percent (Cabo Verde, Mauritius, Seychelles)

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African Trade Contracted 11.9% in 2020 on Virus, Report Says @economics

African trade contracted 11.9% in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic and restrictions to curb its spread pushed the continent into its first recession in a quarter of a century, according to a new report.

“Although the contraction was synchronized across the whole region, the greatest impact was on economies dependent on tourism and commodities,” African Export-Import Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and the Making Finance Work for Africa Partnership of the African Development Bank said in the report. 

“Leading oil-producing countries, where oil exports account for more than 90% of foreign exchange earnings and more than 60% of fiscal revenues,” were particularly badly affected, they said.

The pandemic also raised risk premiums, made it harder to access trade finance and reversed capital flows, which exacerbated existing liquidity challenges and balance of payment pressures. 

Even before the pandemic, access to funding was a major constraint to commerce and growth on a continent where the trade finance gap was more than $80 billion annually, according to Afreximbank and AfDB estimates.

Of 185 banks involved in trade finance across the continent that account for about 58% of the $1.5 trillion in total assets held by commercial lenders in Africa, 30% indicated an increase in credit rejection rates from January to April 2020, according to survey results published in the report. 

Over the same period, 47 correspondent banking relationships were canceled, it said.

The virus’s disruptive impact on global demand and commodity prices pushed the Afreximbank’s African Commodity Index, which tracks the price performance of key commodities of interest on the continent, down 44% in the first quarter of last year.

Concerns have since emerged about adequate access to dollars, in which most trade flows and financing are denominated, as well as “the growing likelihood of default and bankruptcy across the commercial spectrum, with a resulting deterioration in credit quality and risk,” according to the report.

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Rescheduling Payments Will Ease Ethiopia’s Debt Risks, @IMFNews Says @economics

Extending external-loan repayments over a longer period will help Ethiopia ease debt risks in the future, according to the International Monetary Fund.

In an initial assessment, the IMF and the World Bank concluded that Ethiopia’s debt is sustainable, according to the fund’s Africa department Director Abebe Aemro Selassie. 

The preliminary sustainability assessment is a key step for the Horn of Africa nation to rework its public debt under a Group-of-20 program to ease repayment burdens of poor countries hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

Ethiopia, Chad and Zambia have signed up to the so-called G20 Common Framework, which is available for 72 of the world’s poorest countries.

“Ethiopia’s debt is assessed to be sustainable, but a reprofiling of debt service in coming years over a longer period will enable a moderate risk of debt distress to be reached by the end of the Fund-supported program,” Selassie said in an interview. 

The IMF’s analysis of liquidity needs will help inform the country’s creditors committee, which hasn’t yet met, to decide on the type of debt relief.

Ethiopia’s Eurobonds tumbled after the country announced on Jan, 29 its intentions to restructure its external debt. 

State Minister for Finance Eyob Tekalign Tolina has said the country has not decided how Eurobond-holders will be treated, but vowed a “market-friendly” solution to guarantee access to markets in debt coming debts.

Yields on the nation’s 2024 Eurobonds fell 13 basis points on Thursday to a two-month low.

A new committee of official bilateral creditors of Chad will meet this week to start deliberations on that country’s request to restructure its external obligations, Abebe said. 

Under the program, debtors rework their credits with government lenders and are required to seek similar terms of the resulting bilateral restructuring with private creditors.

Commodity trader Glencore Plc is Chad’s largest private creditor, with an oil-backed facility worth more than $1 billion.

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Addis and Asmara exchange vows @Africa_Conf

Ethiopia and Eritrea may consider a federation as the conflict in Tigray becomes part of a wider reordering of regional geopolitics

Efforts to float a trial balloon for greater closeness between Eritrea and Ethiopia by Ambassador Dina Mufti at his weekly press conference in Addis Ababa at the end of last month quickly crash-landed.

Talking about Eritrea's Independence Day, 24 May, Mufti, who is spokesman for Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said, 'Each and every Eritrean if asked would admit they don't celebrate the day they separated from Ethiopia. They don't like it.' Ethiopians felt the same, he claimed. 

Ethiopia and Eritrea are one people. 'Who would dislike it, if they are going to unite in a federation?' he asked, as he sang the praises of economic and infrastructural integration followed by political integration. 'It should be inevitable for all the countries of the region.' 

Barely were the words out of his mouth when a storm of condemnation broke from all sides. 

Eritrea is gearing up for its 30th anniversary as a nation and even the United States embassy sprang to its defence, hailing its 'hard-won struggle for independence'. 

Eritrean embassies and diaspora groups joined the chorus as the ministry hastily retreated and the ambassador 'humbly apologised'. 

Yet this faux pas was certainly signed off by the Foreign Minister, Demeke Mekonnen, who is also Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's deputy. 

It betrays the deeper thinking at work in Addis Ababa and Asmara. This was simply a curtain-raiser that went wrong. 

Abiy and President Issayas Afewerki have already created the Horn of Africa Council of Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia and are looking to get South Sudan to join. 

The idea is to replace the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the premier regional body, with another more directly under their control (AC Vol 62 No 5, Stirring the regional pot).

One aspect of the unity idea is in de facto operation as Eritrean armed forces deepen their penetration of Tigray and look set to remain (see Feature, Eritrea entrenches in Tigray). 

Abiy and Issayas are preparing a defence agreement under which Eritrean and Ethiopian troops can operate under each other's officers and in each other's countries. 

This would make the Eritrean presence in Tigray legal, and so frustrate the international community's demand for Asmara's troops to leave. 

Many suspect the roots of the moves towards unity lie in the still secret provisions of the peace accord Abiy and Issayas signed in July 2018 (AC Vol 59 No 14, From the edge of war to the bridge of love). 

At the time, Abiy described Addis Ababa as Issayas's 'own home' while his counterpart said it was foolish 'to assume we are two separate people'. This looks much less like flowery rhetoric now. 

Abiy even told the World Economic Forum at Davos in January 2019 that there was no need to have different armies in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti. 

Everything could be shared on the way to complete integration, he said. This has certainly long been on Issayas's wishlist. 

He has long dreamed of federation and raised it first in 1993. The removal of his bête noire, the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), leads him to believe his dream can become reality. 

It's in that light that analysts now look at Abiy's creation of his Republican Guard unit, and the rebuilding of the air force in 2018-19. 

He introduced changes in training to try and remove Tigrayan influence, and expanded recruitment in 2019 and 2020. 

A purge of Tigrayans from the armed forces has accelerated in the past three years, and encompasses rank-and-file soldiers and police too. 

Since the war began in November, reports suggest, some 20,000 ex-Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) Tigrayans and 7,000 police officers have been detained. 

Defections and detentions, which have included Tigrayan troops serving in the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) and in UN peacekeeping forces in South Sudan, have seriously damaged the army's morale and capability. 

Abiy's plans to merge the 'Special Forces' of Amhara and other regions into the ENDF may cause further difficulties. 

President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' is proving a weak link in the grand regional lash-up. He is in the midst of bitter disputes over his re-election and needs Ethiopian help. 
With so many Ethiopian troops having been redeployed to Tigray from Somalia, the activity of the Somali Islamist militia Al Shabaab has increased, and in Ethiopia too. 

There are unconfirmed reports of Eritrean troops arriving in Mogadishu to help relieve Abiy's manpower shortage. 

With or without Ethiopia, it seems Issayas is re-activating his 1990s interventionist policies, when Eritrea was involved in Congo-Kinshasa, Sudan and Chad, went to war with Yemen and Ethiopia, and carried out incursions into Djibouti. 

Until recently a pariah, he is now a major regional presence with a willing and powerful partner.

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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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Eritrea entrenches in Tigray @Africa_Conf

Issayas’s forces were the spearhead of Addis Ababa’s ousting of the Tigray government. They are there for the long haul

As the fog around the conflict in Tigray slowly begins to lift, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reliance on the armed forces of his Eritrean counterpart Issayas Afewerki is becoming clearer, according to multiple sources in Ethiopia.

Although the Eritrean army played a crucial initial role in the conflict, Abiy needs it in the longer run because of the demands on the Ethiopian National Defence Force throughout the federation, the sources added (AC Vol 62 No 7, Abiy gives first ground). 

ENDF troops are slated to occupy positions along the Tigray frontier while Eritrean troops take the more challenging role of policing the cities and the countryside, the sources say. 

The ENDF's resources are stretched, and its purge of Tigrayans has taken a heavy toll. The army will also be needed to provide security for the general election on 5 June. 

This means Abiy will find the Group of 7 wealthy nations' demand on 2 April for 'swift, unconditional and verifiable' withdrawal of Asmara's forces virtually impossible to meet

A Western diplomat confirmed on 12 April there was no sign of an Eritrean withdrawal. Eritrean forces are dug in throughout Tigray, we hear. 

Issayas's well-known animus against the ousted Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) motivates him to commit so much military power, but there are also reports that Abiy is paying Asmara. 

On 11 March, according to unconfirmed sources, the town of Hawzen was taken over by the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF), the name given by the TPLF to its resistance fighters. 

The Eritrean army then bombarded Hawzen with artillery for 17 hours and retook the town, although sporadic fighting is said to continue, Tigrayan sources said. 

Anecdotal evidence from sources close to the TPLF speak of a burgeoning resistance

And, in an interview on 6 April on Tigray TV, which is controlled by the new pro-government administration in the province, ENDF Major General Kindu Gezu mentioned 'tens of thousands' joining the resistance. 

Abiy himself appeared to concede the strength of Tigrayan resistance in a speech on 3 April. 'The junta which we had eliminated within three weeks,' he said, 'has now turned itself into a guerrilla [army], mingled among the farmers and started moving from place to place. And now, we are not even able to eliminate it within three months.' Abiy also mentioned 'tiresome' resistance, indicating guerrilla-style attacks. 

There are reports the Eritrean army has sent an additional 2,500 troops into Tigray. 

Eritrean forces are also posted along the disputed Al Fashqa area on the Sudan border (AC Vol 62 No 2, Abiy risks more war). 

That dispute is especially sensitive because it is close to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and Egypt has pledged to support Sudan against Addis Ababa. 

Abiy signed agreements on 15 March with Issayas under which the latter provides riot police and standard police for the whole of Tigray

Eritreans have the advantage of speaking Tigrinya. Eritrean forces have been patrolling Tigrayan cities in Ethiopian Federal Police uniforms since January, sources say. 

Abiy and Issayas are said to have agreed to send another 1,000 Eritrean police officers to the region this month. Abiy visited Asmara again on 25 March. 

While the rumours that Abiy and Issayas are considering full integration of their forces are not yet entirely credible, analysts do give more credence to the reports that Eritrea may be training up to 10,000 Ethiopian troops. 

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Inflation reaches 18.2% in #Nigeria in March. Food inflation recorded at 22.9%. @NKCAfrica

With elevated price inflation and just 30.6 million Nigerians out of a population of nearly 210 million considered fully employed, households are under severe strain.

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Unholy alliances @Africa_Conf

None of the presidential contenders can explain how they could form a majority at next year’s elections

Kenya's next president will be Raila Odinga, William Ruto or 'S'. The latter stands for 'the system'. 

This informs a growing assumption that with neither Odinga nor Ruto able to chart a path to power, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his governing Jubilee party would anoint a compromise candidate.

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.@JubileeInsKE Jubilee Holdings reports FY 2020 EPS +2.0175% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           285.00

Total Shares Issued:          72472950.00

Market Capitalization:        20,654,790,750

EPS:              50.06 

PE:                5.693

Jubilee Holdings reports FY 2020 Earnings versus FY 2019 

FY Gross Written Premiums 29.971547b versus 28.812194b

FY Insurance Revenue ceded to reinsurers [9.674721b] versus [9.630273b]

FY Net Insurance premium revenue 20.140397b versus 19.489658b

FY Investment Income 11.295345b versus 10.026814b

FY Other Income 1.677744b versus 3.312863b

FY Total Income 33.113486b versus 32.829355b

FY Net Insurance benefits and returns on investment contracts [20.401864b] versus [19.726931b]

FY Total expenses and commissions [8.856261b] versus [9.083703b]

FY Results of operating activities 3.855361b versus 4.018701b

FY Share of results of associates 1.329396b versus 0.988521b

FY Group Profit before Income Tax 5.076895b versus 5.007222b +1.4%

FY Profit for the Year 4.087586b versus 4.017687b

FY EPS 50.06 versus 49.07 +2.0175% 

FY Final Dividend 8 shillings a share [+1.00 Interim]

FY Total comprehensive income for te Year 5.755842b versus 3.903155b

FY Net Assets 35.535381b versus 30.521630b

Cash and Cash Equivalents 12.123476b versus 15.019997b


Total Assets 146B +12%

Total compreensiva Income 5.8b +49%

No.1 combined Insurer Uganda 20% GWP Growth

No. 1 Regional Medical Insurer 10% GWP Growth


Resilient Earnings.

Dividend Yield 3.157% 

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.@FlameTreeGroup FTG Holdings Ltd reports FY EPS 2020 +68% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Par Value:                  

Closing Price:           1.22

Total Shares Issued:          161866804.00

Market Capitalization:        197,477,501

EPS:               0.4

PE:                2.904


Flame Tree Group Full Year Results through Dec 2020 versus Dec 2019

''a diversified manufacturer and distributor of plastic tanks, cosmetics, snacks, spices and playground equipment''

FY Revenue 2.910676573b versus 2.424753503b +20%

FY Cost of Sales [1.769160997b] versus [1.602069716b]

FY Gross Profit 1.141515576b versus 0.822683787b

FY Selling and distribution expenses [290.500234m] versus [305.048681m]

FY Administrative expenses [477.655526m] versus [302.703249m]

FY Other Operating Expenses [68.991742m] versus [57.485492m]

FY Operating Profit [Loss] 306.834179m versus 165.744117m

FY Finance Cost [158.420765m] versus [75.213959m]

FY Profit [Loss] before Taxation 148.413414m versus 90.530158m +64%

FY Profit [Loss] for the Year 71.180432m versus 44.936245m +67%

FY EPS 0.42 versus 0.25 +68% 

FY Cash and Cash Equivalents [218.346914m] versus 66.419269m

Exchange differences on translation of Foreign Operations [42.020911m] versus [6.020710m]

FY Total comprehensive income [Loss] for the Year 33.159521m versus 233.440582m

No Dividend 

Company Commentary

The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) Listed firm confirmed that all profit ratios showed major improvements; sales increased by 20% and gross margin grew by 39% from 34 p.p. to 39 p.p.

According to Mr. Heril Bangera, CEO Flame Tree Group, 

“We are very satisfied with the results achieved this year, despite all challenges in the most difficult year amid the global pandemic, the company has reacted fast to preserve its cash, protect employment, seize every commercial opportunity, even launching new products designed to fight the Covid 19 and continue to show a remarkable growth for the third year in a row”.

“Our receivables have been kept under tight control, and despite the impairment of some receivables - mainly related to Tuskys Supermarket - the DSO ratio improved by 4 days,” said Mr. Bangera.


Market Cap is < than $2m

Its a very inexpensive share 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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April 2021

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