When you gaze out at the night sky, space seems to extend forever in all directions. That’s our mental model for the universe, but it’s not necessarily correct. 

There was a time, after all, when everyone thought the Earth was flat, because our planet’s curvature was too subtle to detect and a spherical Earth was unfathomable.

Today, we know the Earth is shaped like a sphere. But most of us give little thought to the shape of the universe. 

Just as the sphere offered an alternative to a flat Earth, other three-dimensional shapes offer alternatives to “ordinary” infinite space.

We can ask two separate but interrelated questions about the shape of the universe. One is about its geometry: the fine-grained local measurements of things like angles and areas. 

The other is about its topology: how these local pieces are stitched together into an overarching shape.

Cosmological evidence suggests that the part of the universe we can see is smooth and homogeneous, at least approximately. 

The local fabric of space looks much the same at every point and in every direction. Only three geometries fit this description: flat, spherical and hyperbolic. 

Let’s explore these geometries, some topological considerations, and what the cosmological evidence says about which shapes best describe our universe.

1-4-2-1. The first 1 refers to defending what has since come to be called the homeland. 

The 4 refers to deterring hostilities in four key regions of the world. 

The 2 means the U.S. armed forces must have the strength to win swiftly in two near-simultaneous conflicts in those regions. 

The final 1 means that we must win one of those conflicts “decisively,” toppling the enemy’s regime.

The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved though all the virologists who have metastasized into vaccinologists will have you believe its all sunlit uplands from here. 

Glorious sunrise at the Borana conservancy @nickdimbleby @JamboMagazine

12,361/day avg deaths also up 25% past 2wks.

Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of April 14: + 816,992 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 138,260,706 in total + 13,535 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,973,513 in total

My Thesis is based on the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World.

Therefore, I would be tempering my COVID19 optimism and holding my horses which introduces interesting dynamics into the markets.

Lineage P.1, acquired 17 mutations, including a trio in the spike protein (K417T, E484K and N501Y) associated with increased binding to the human ACE2 receptor. 

Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around mid-November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. 

Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, 

we estimate that P.1 may be 1.7–2.4-fold more transmissible, and that previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54–79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages.

The variant of concern (VOC) P.1 emerged in the Amazonas state (Brazil) and was sequenced for the first time on 6-Jan- 2021 by the Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

It contains a constellation of mutations, ten of them in the spike protein.

The P.1 variant shares mutations such as E484K, K417T, and N501Y and a deletion in the orf1b protein (del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF)) with other VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom and South Africa (B.1.1.7 and the B.1.351, respectively).

Prevalence of P.1 increased sharply from 0% in November 2020 to 73% in January 2021 and in less than 2 months replaced previous lineages (4).

The estimated relative transmissibility of P.1 is 2.5 (95% CI: 2.3-2.8) times higher than the infection rate of the wild variant, while the reinfection probability due to the new variant is 6.4% (95% CI: 5.7 - 7.1%).

Variant VOC-20DEC-02

Lineage B.1.351

Growth rate (1/week) 0.16 (p=7.59e-10)

Several variants within nucleocapsid and ORF3a epitopes have arisen independently in multiple lineages and result in loss of recognition by epitope-specific T-cells assessed by IFN-γ and cytotoxic killing assays. 

These data demonstrate the potential for T-cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T-cell as well as humoral immunity.

Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to evasion from adaptive immunity generated following infection and vaccination.

Little is known about the potential for SARS-CoV-2 mutations to impact T-cell recognition. 

Escape from antigen-specific CD8+ T-cells has been studied extensively in HIV-1 infection, where rapid intra-host evolution renders T-cell responses ineffective within weeks of acute infection

While these escape variants play an important role in the dynamics of chronic viral infections, the opportunities for T-cell escape in acute respiratory viral infections are fewer and consequences are different. 

Non-spike T-cell immune responses will also become increasingly important to vaccine-induced immunity as inactivated whole virus vaccines are rolled out. 

Our findings demonstrate the potential for T-cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T-cell as well as humoral immunity.

A. Weekly frequency over time since beginning of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic of all variants studied in functional experiments. 

COG-UK global alignment dated 29th Jan 2021 and 309,119 sequences used. 

Variants named with prefix of SARS-CoV-2 protein (S=spike, N=nucleocapsid), followed by wild-type amino acid, position within protein and variant amino acid. 

B-E. Phylogenies representing global SARS-CoV-2 genomes depicting the presence of epitopes variants impacting T-cell responses. 

In each case, phylogenies represent all available variant sequences (red tips), along with a selection of non-variant sequences, which were subsampled for visualisation purposes. 

The bar to the right of each phylogeny is annotated by main ancestral lineages only and not each individual PANGO lineage that viruses belong to. 

The grapevine pipeline was used for generating the phylogeny based on all data available on GISAID and COG-UK up until 16th of February 2021.

Euro 1.1983

Dollar Index 91.647

Japan Yen 108.86

Swiss Franc 0.9199

Pound 1.3752

Aussie 0.7752

India Rupee 74.3625

South Korea Won 1114.06

Brazil Real 5.6164

Egypt Pound 15.6807

South Africa Rand 14.2408

In this context, and despite a more buoyant external environment, sub-Saharan Africa will be the world’s slowest growing region in 2021

In Nigeria, the economy contracted by 1.8 percent in 2020 and is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2021

Angola in 2021 is projected to expand for the first time in six years. The crisis resulted in an output drop of –4.0 percent in 2020, but growth is expected to recover modestly to 0.4 percent this year.

Ethiopia’s growth forecast for fiscal year 2020/21 has been revised upward from 0 to 2 percent because of higher-than-expected momentum from fiscal year 2019/20 along with the broader global recovery. 

But COVID-19-related uncertainty will still burden nonagricultural activity, and projections for agricultural output have been revised downward, reflecting the recent locust swarms and the conflict in Tigray. A new surge in COVID-19 cases started in January 2021.

The pandemic also raised risk premiums, made it harder to access trade finance and reversed capital flows, which exacerbated existing liquidity challenges and balance of payment pressures. 

Even before the pandemic, access to funding was a major constraint to commerce and growth on a continent where the trade finance gap was more than $80 billion annually, according to Afreximbank and AfDB estimates.

Extending external-loan repayments over a longer period will help Ethiopia ease debt risks in the future, according to the International Monetary Fund.

In an initial assessment, the IMF and the World Bank concluded that Ethiopia’s debt is sustainable, according to the fund’s Africa department Director Abebe Aemro Selassie. 

The preliminary sustainability assessment is a key step for the Horn of Africa nation to rework its public debt under a Group-of-20 program to ease repayment burdens of poor countries hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

Ethiopia, Chad and Zambia have signed up to the so-called G20 Common Framework, which is available for 72 of the world’s poorest countries.

“Ethiopia’s debt is assessed to be sustainable, but a reprofiling of debt service in coming years over a longer period will enable a moderate risk of debt distress to be reached by the end of the Fund-supported program,” Selassie said in an interview. 

The IMF’s analysis of liquidity needs will help inform the country’s creditors committee, which hasn’t yet met, to decide on the type of debt relief.

Ethiopia and Eritrea may consider a federation as the conflict in Tigray becomes part of a wider reordering of regional geopolitics

Conclusions

Its seems Tigray has been gifted to Asmara 

Issayas’s forces were the spearhead of Addis Ababa’s ousting of the Tigray government. They are there for the long haul

As the fog around the conflict in Tigray slowly begins to lift, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reliance on the armed forces of his Eritrean counterpart Issayas Afewerki is becoming clearer, according to multiple sources in Ethiopia.

Although the Eritrean army played a crucial initial role in the conflict, Abiy needs it in the longer run because of the demands on the Ethiopian National Defence Force throughout the federation, the sources added (AC Vol 62 No 7, Abiy gives first ground). 

ENDF troops are slated to occupy positions along the Tigray frontier while Eritrean troops take the more challenging role of policing the cities and the countryside, the sources say. 

The ENDF's resources are stretched, and its purge of Tigrayans has taken a heavy toll. The army will also be needed to provide security for the general election on 5 June. 

This means Abiy will find the Group of 7 wealthy nations' demand on 2 April for 'swift, unconditional and verifiable' withdrawal of Asmara's forces virtually impossible to meet. 

A Western diplomat confirmed on 12 April there was no sign of an Eritrean withdrawal. Eritrean forces are dug in throughout Tigray, we hear. 

Issayas's well-known animus against the ousted Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) motivates him to commit so much military power, but there are also reports that Abiy is paying Asmara. 

On 11 March, according to unconfirmed sources, the town of Hawzen was taken over by the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF), the name given by the TPLF to its resistance fighters. 

The Eritrean army then bombarded Hawzen with artillery for 17 hours and retook the town, although sporadic fighting is said to continue, Tigrayan sources said. 

Anecdotal evidence from sources close to the TPLF speak of a burgeoning resistance. 

And, in an interview on 6 April on Tigray TV, which is controlled by the new pro-government administration in the province, ENDF Major General Kindu Gezu mentioned 'tens of thousands' joining the resistance. 

With elevated price inflation and just 30.6 million Nigerians out of a population of nearly 210 million considered fully employed, households are under severe strain.

Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           285.00

Total Shares Issued:          72472950.00

Market Capitalization:        20,654,790,750

EPS:              50.06 

PE:                5.693

Jubilee Holdings reports FY 2020 Earnings versus FY 2019 

FY Gross Written Premiums 29.971547b versus 28.812194b

FY Insurance Revenue ceded to reinsurers [9.674721b] versus [9.630273b]

FY Net Insurance premium revenue 20.140397b versus 19.489658b

FY Investment Income 11.295345b versus 10.026814b

FY Other Income 1.677744b versus 3.312863b

FY Total Income 33.113486b versus 32.829355b

FY Net Insurance benefits and returns on investment contracts [20.401864b] versus [19.726931b]

FY Total expenses and commissions [8.856261b] versus [9.083703b]

FY Results of operating activities 3.855361b versus 4.018701b

FY Share of results of associates 1.329396b versus 0.988521b

FY Group Profit before Income Tax 5.076895b versus 5.007222b +1.4%

FY Profit for the Year 4.087586b versus 4.017687b

FY EPS 50.06 versus 49.07 +2.0175% 

FY Final Dividend 8 shillings a share [+1.00 Interim]

FY Total comprehensive income for te Year 5.755842b versus 3.903155b

FY Net Assets 35.535381b versus 30.521630b

Cash and Cash Equivalents 12.123476b versus 15.019997b

Commentary

Total Assets 146B +12%

Total compreensiva Income 5.8b +49%

No.1 combined Insurer Uganda 20% GWP Growth

No. 1 Regional Medical Insurer 10% GWP Growth

Conclusions

Resilient Earnings.

Dividend Yield 3.157%