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Thursday 17th of June 2021
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Morning
Africa
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Register and its all Free.
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Andy Warhol was invited to Iran by the Shah and the Empress, the Pahlavis, in 1976. @akcakmak
Misc.
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Warhol used a simple polaroid of Farah Diba Pahlavi for her portrait which used to welcome visitors in the entrance of Tehran Museum of Contemporary Art until the “revolution” in 1979.
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Tehran Museum of Contemporary Art is exhibiting some Andy Warhol works from its permanent collection. @SBalaghi
Misc.
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In what can only be described as a quirk of art historical fate the Tehran Museum of Contemporary Art includes a Pop art work by Roy Lichtenstein - Brattata, 1962 - that depicts American military aggression in action
Misc.
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Shah of Shahs By RYSZARD KAPUSCINSKI
Misc.
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"Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetises thought, blurs vision, corrupts." - Ryszard Kapuscinski, Shah of Shahs
“...what has made it possible for us to remain ourselves in spite of so many wars, invasions and occupations, is our spiritual, not our material, strength--our poetry, and not out technology; our religion, and not our factories.”
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The Shah of Shahs ended up in Panama all on his lonesome looking out to sea
Misc.
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Time changes, and our desires change. What we believe-even what we are-is ever- changing. The world is change, which forever takes on new qualities.
Misc.
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A beautiful Indian Ocean sunrise at Nyali Beach, Kenya @scottsflights
Africa
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Sunrise over Lake Malawi at the close of last year's festival. Photo by @JoseemeRollin @LakeofStars
Africa
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Luminous and Fairy Tale
Misc.
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Beautiful sunrise on Lake Malawi - Nkhotakota Pottery Lodge beach @travel2malawi
Africa
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Love in telephone booth ~ 𝘒𝘦𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘉𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘪𝘯 @Futura_Noir
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Venus and the moon NASA @konstructivizm
Misc.
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Moon, as captured by an Apollo 12 astronaut. Credits: NASA @konstructivizm
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Putin just arrived for the summit - here first and on time. Usually likes to make people - even the Pope - wait #GenevaSummit2021 @sarahrainsford
Law & Politics
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In the room with @POTUS and Putin are @SecBlinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. @W7VOA
Law & Politics
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The "Villa La Grange" in Geneva where Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden meet @AFP
Misc.
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Putin's house in Sochi, Russia designed by Roman Vlasov @HiraethResists
Law & Politics
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5 OCT 15 :: :Putin is a GeoPolitical GrandMaster
Law & Politics
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5 DEC 16 :: The Parabolic Rebound of Vladimir Putin
Law & Politics
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So much has happened in 2016, from the Brexit vote to President-elect Trump, and it certainly feels like we have entered a new normal.
One common theme is a parabolic Putin rebound. At this moment, President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded. The intellectual father of the new Zeitgeist that propelled Brexit, Le Pen, the Five Star movement in Italy, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands, is Vladimir Putin.
In the Middle East, it is Putin who is calling the shots in Aleppo, and in a quite delicious irony it looks like he has pocketed Opec as well.
However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital.
Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short stories:
The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”.
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy. There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60 years ago.”
I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.
Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb — were devastating and terminal.
The first thing is plausible deniability
The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way.
Beppe Grillo, the comic turned leader of the Five Star movement in Italy said: This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the intellectuals, of the journalists.”
He is right, traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents can broadcast live and over the top.
From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.
Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are his information victims.
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28 OCT 19 :: From Russia with Love
Law & Politics
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“Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov back in November 2018
Putin has created a hybrid model with an exponential ROI.
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I imagine he buttressed the above points by discreetly showing his visitors a photo of a dead Gaddafi
Law & Politics
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Wilhelm Sasnal Gaddafi 2011 @Tate
Law & Politics
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& then a Photo of a spritely Bashar Assad and would surely not even have had to ask the question; what’s the difference?
Law & Politics
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.@AKorybko Interview To Italian Media About Russia's Evolving Geostrategic Vision
Law & Politics
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To summarize, the first point to make is that Russia and China are not “allies”, and both their leaders have confirmed this.
They instead regard themselves as being strategic partners with a wider scope for cooperation than conventional allies while having none of the controversial military commitments that come with the latter relationship.
Secondly, despite the economic and military asymmetries between them, they have shared interests in accelerating the emergence of the multipolar world order, which explains their close cooperation in practically all spheres that's expected to continue for the indefinite future.
The reason why America decided to do this is that its permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) seemingly realized the futility of attempting to simultaneously contain Russia and China.
Not only has that only pushed those two closer together, but that very outcome has served China's grand strategic interests vis-a-vis the New Cold War that it's in with the US.
From the American strategic standpoint, China is a global competitor on the structural level whereas Russia is a trans-regional one mostly operating within its neighboring regions (Central & Eastern Europe, South Caucasus, West Asia, Central Asia), though with a growing strategic presence in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and most recently Africa.
Nevertheless, Russia lacks the economic might to make meaningful changes to the international order, unlike China, ergo the American need to redirect its strategic focus from Moscow towards Beijing by de-escalating with the former.
Whether in the years of Sino-Soviet alignment or the historic 'Nixon in China' moment, this game has always seen two sides aligned against the third.
Officially speaking, Russia would prefer for there to be no New Cold War between the US and China, but since it's powerless to stop it, Moscow seemingly intends to take maximum advantage of it in pursuit of its own interests.
This takes the form of the Eurasian Great Power's ambitions to serve as the supreme “balancing” force in Eurasia across the 21st century, to which end it aspires to present itself as a pragmatic alternative to those many countries that are increasingly compelled to choose between the US and China.
In other words, just as Russia hopes to “balance” between the US and China (with the first-mentioned being dependent on the outcome of the upcoming Putin-Biden Summit though that event's been preceded by some positive progress as of late), so too does it hope to help its partners across Eurasia do the same.
In practice, this can result in Russia playing a larger economic role in those countries, particularly when it comes to certain types of infrastructure such as energy and railroads.
In addition, those countries that are most susceptible to certain Hybrid War threats can make use of Russia's wide range of customized “Democratic Security” solutions just like Syria and the Central African Republic presently are doing.
The consequences of these various Silk Roads on the Suez Canal won't be felt for some time since that choke point will remain important for at least the next decade or two.
In a nutshell, I foresee Russia, Turkey, India, and China continuing to expand their influence across Eurasia, both cooperating with and “balancing” against one another in various ways, most of them “friendly”.
Nevertheless, these strategic dynamics are ripe for external exploitation by the US in advance of its ambition to divide and rule the supercontinent, though they also present plenty of opportunities for those countries to more sustainably stabilize it provided that they have the political will to do so, including by making some tough mutual compromises where needed.
The so-called “Age of Complexity” is upon us wherein everything is evolving at an unprecedented pace, accelerated by the full-spectrum paradigm-changing processes catalyzed by the world's uncoordinated attempts to contain COVID-19, or World War C as I call it.
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The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
Law & Politics
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In chaos theory, they say the infinitesimal flapping of a butterfly's wings can hypothetically cascade into a fierce tornado @Rainmaker1973
Misc.
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Scientists have actually demonstrated how some of the smallest creatures can generate surprisingly huge, intense ocean currents
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After massed plane incursion near Taiwan, China says must respond to 'collusion' @Reuters
Law & Politics
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China does not tolerate foreign forces intervening in Taiwan issues and has to make strong responses to such acts of “collusion”, the government said on Wednesday after the island reported the largest incursion to date of Chinese aircraft.
Twenty-eight Chinese air force aircraft, including fighters and nuclear-capable bombers, entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday, the Chinese-claimed island’s government said.
The incident came after the Group of Seven leaders issued a joint statement on Sunday scolding China for a series of issues and underscored the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, comments China condemned as “slander”.
Asked at a news conference whether the military activity was related to the G7 statement, Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said it was Taiwan’s government that was to blame for tensions.
Beijing believes the island’s government is working with foreign countries to seek formal independence.
“We will never tolerate attempts to seek independence or wanton intervention in the Taiwan issue by foreign forces, so we need to make a strong response to these acts of collusion,” Ma said.
Democratically-ruled Taiwan has complained over the last few months of repeated missions by China’s air force near the island, concentrated in the southwestern part of its air defence zone near the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands.
However, this time not only did the Chinese aircraft fly in an area close to the Pratas Islands, but the bombers and some of the fighters flew around the southern part of Taiwan near the bottom tip of the island, according to Taiwan’s defence ministry.
The fly-by happened on the same day the U.S. Navy said a carrier group led by the USS Ronald Reagan had entered the disputed South China Sea.
“The Ronald Reagan Strike group did not interact with any Chinese military aircraft,” Carrier Strike Group 5 spokesperson Lt. Cmdr. Joe Keiley said in an emailed statement responding to questions on whether the Chinese aircraft had approached them.
“During the strike group’s South China Sea operations, all communications between ships and aircraft have been consistent with international norms and have not impacted our operations.”
A senior official familiar with Taiwan’s security planning told Reuters that officials believed China was sending a message to the United States as the carrier group sailed through the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines and leads into the South China Sea.
“It’s strategic intimidation of the U.S. military. They wanted the United States to notice their capability and for them to restrain their behaviour.”
Taiwan needs in particular to pay attention to the fact that China’s military has started conducting drills in Taiwan’s southeastern ADIZ, the source added.
This “to a certain degree was targeting our deployments in the east and increasing air defence pressure around our ADIZ”, the source said.
Taiwan’s east coast is home to two major air bases with hangers dug out of the side of mountains to provide protection in the event of a Chinese assault.
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That big thing may be that he who rules Taiwan rules the world @bopinion @nfergus
Law & Politics
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28架共機今擾台 創國防部公布統計以來最多架次紀錄
Law & Politics
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28-MAR-2021 :: I expect China to occupy Taiwan before the end of the year
Law & Politics
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"Globally, the number of new cases of #COVID19 reported to WHO has now declined for 7 weeks in a row, which is the longest sequence of weekly declines during the pandemic so far"- @DrTedros
Misc.
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COVID-19 Daily cases @ourworldindata
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28-MAR-2021 :: The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved #COVID19
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Nations w/ high avg COVID-19 growth rates (daily/total) @jmlukens
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Mongolia: 2.98%
Vietnam: 2.95%
Uganda: 2.40%
Zambia: 1.83%
Afghanistan: 1.80%
Namibia: 1.64%
Cambodia: 1.52%
Thailand: 1.48%
Sri Lanka: 1.15%
Trinidad: 1.14%
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Growing proportion of Delta variant in US @AdamJKucharski
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If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but "variants" that [are] surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal
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Because of such limited sequencing in the US, we could have the illusion that cases are flat—but actually hidden within that are dynamics of the 2 variants @EricTopol
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''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics''
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The most recent estimate for increased delta transmission over alpha (B.1.617.2 vs B.1.1.7) is ~64% @EricTopol
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28-MAR-2021 we are seeing a sustained acceleration in mutant viruses.
Misc.
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Current vaccines are only 80-90% effective at reducing COVID transmission. @robertwiblin
Misc.
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So if there's a strain that would have had an R0 of 7 you'd need almost the entire pop to have been double vaccinated, or have had COVID, to achieve herd immunity at Feb 2020 levels of social contact.
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And the belief in Vaccine Efficacy is now bumping at euphoric levels. Folks I followed on Twitter for their epidemiological excellence now simply recite Vaccine / Inoculation data like a liturgy.
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Judging by what health authorities are saying the Delta variant is probably already around 7. @robertwiblin
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"The fact it has happened twice in 18 months, two lineages (Alpha and then Delta) each 50% more transmissible is a phenomenal amount of change"—@ArisKatzourakis @EricTopol
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“The variants are like a thoroughbred and our vaccines are like a workhorse,” noted evolutionary biologist Sally Otto.
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Powell Marks the Start of a Treacherous Retreat @markets @bopinion @johnauthers
World Of Finance
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The Fed’s prediction for this year is 7%, to be followed by 3.3% in 2022.
Conclusions
The Fed to managed to be inflation hawks without so much as raising a feather or baring a talon - @BChappatta on the absurdity that predicting rates might be as high as 0.75%, 30 months from now, these days counts as hawkish
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The meeting provoked the fourth-greatest negative reaction on the five-year Treasury in 80 Federal Open Market Committee meetings since 2011, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.: @bopinion @johnauthers
World Of Finance
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This was the best day in more than a year for Bloomberg’s dollar index, which shows its performance against a basket of 10 other currencies: @bopinion
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1987
Dollar Index 91.453
Japan Yen 110.66
Swiss Franc 0.91035
Pound 1.3989
Aussie 0.7618
India Rupee 73.7491
South Korea Won 1131.78
Brazil Real 5.0554
Egypt Pound 15.65
South Africa Rand 14.0122
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1987
World Currencies
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Rolled into El Salvador to a kings welcome thanks to El Presidente. The #Bitcoin delegation has arrived @raypaxful
World Currencies
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The Lotos-eaters
World Currencies
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.@maxkeiser $BTC @Fredilly
World Currencies
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The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Crude Oil Chart INO 71.67
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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A stronger dollar might create problems for emerging markets, whose currencies sold off quite sharply. @bopinion
Emerging Markets
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Emerging markets wobbled close to disaster in the aftermath of the 2013 taper tantrum. This time, taper talk may be safer because their currencies have been strengthening from an all-time low:
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“The threat of a third wave in Africa is real and rising,” Moeti said.
Africa
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Will the next India be Africa? @fibke
Africa
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09-MAY-2021 Africa might be casting a weary glance over its shoulder at India and would certainly be prudent to do so.
Africa
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''The steep increase in Africa is especially concerning, because it is the region with the least access to vaccines, diagnostics and oxygen"- @DrTedros #COVID19
Africa
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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 87 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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Of every 100 infections last reported around the world, about 6 were reported from countries in Africa
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''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics''
Africa
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440,498 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData [15.288% below a record high]
Africa
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Active #Covid19 cases record 520,000 was in January 2021 @NKCAfrica
Africa
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3rd wave in SA now surging, spurred on by a concerning spike in Gauteng @rid1tweets
Africa
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Update: #COVID19 in Gauteng GP currently epicentre of SA's 3rd wave. Over 35k cases reported in GP over past 7 days, 63% of total, and up 88% week-on-week @rid1tweets
Africa
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Over 4,400 patients currently in hospitals in GP alone, and too many deaths now
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In Southern Africa the rates of confirmed cases are rising. @MaxCRoser
Africa
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The test positivity rates are also rising in the region. In Namibia every third test is confirming an infection. @MaxCRoser
Africa
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Drinking the Kool-Aid
Africa
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@ONEAftershocks shows worrying trends in #Namibia #Zambia #Uganda @David_McNair
Africa
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Here are some of the new restrictions announced last night in Namibia (where the positivity rate is in the 35% to 46% range this week). @geoffreyyork
Africa
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ጅማ ስላሳያችሁኝ ፍቅርና አብሮነት አመሰግናለሁ! @AbiyAhmedAli
Africa
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His dream of being the glorious leader of a unified Ethiopia. @LRB
Africa
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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa
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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
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[Dissolution risk is blinking amber] A fiendishly complicated task fending off the centrIfugal forces which are tearing Ethiopia apart @PMEthiopia has lost this battle
Africa
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If you think Ethiopia's problems are just in Tigray, look at this map from: https://epo.acleddata.com @martinplaut
Africa
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"Rather than stay home and be slaughtered, you must fight." @rcoreyb
Africa
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Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Africa
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‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
Africa
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Africa’s Top 250 Companies in 2021 African Business
Africa
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Total market capitalisation of all 250 firms on the list this year is nearly $710bn, up a massive 69% on the comparative value for these firms last year
However, some of the gains are to do with vagaries of timing, since figures for the survey are set for 31 March, and in 2020 this was only a few days after stock markets crashed worldwide before later rallying from the low base.
This year’s total is close to the total $748bn for 2019 but far below total market capitalisation of $887bn in March 2018 and the peak value of $948bn in 2015, during the heady days of “Africa Rising”.
This year, financial services feature strongly in the tables, with a 24% share of the total value.
Consumer goods and mining-related companies come second, each with a 22% share.
A strong market rise and strengthening currency means that South African firms have strengthened their domination of the ranking.
Africa’s economy, measured by gross domestic product (GDP), contracted by 2.1% in 2020, the first recession in 25 years.
Tourism, which provided 24m African jobs in 2018, all but disappeared in the first half of 2020 and only restarted slowly after August, slamming economies such as Mauritius and Kenya
Fiscal deficits across Africa have doubled in 2020 to 8.4% of GDP, a historic high.
Portfolio investment inflows reversed from a $23bn net inflow in 2019 to a $27bn net outflow in 2020.
This and other disruptions to foreign fund flows such as remittances (down from $86bn in 2019 to $78bn in 2020) and aid have meant that many African currencies also had a torrid year in 2020, particularly in the frontier economies.
The world’s biggest free trade area by number of countries participating was officially launched on 1 January and offers Africa’s leading businesses huge potential for growth.
Growth is projected at 3.4% in 2021 (compared to an IMF forecast of 4% recovery in 2021, published in April 2020), provided that tourism starts again, commodity prices climb and restrictions are ended.
However, the bounce-back is far less than many countries in other regions are enjoying and Africa’s ongoing high population growth means per capita incomes will have fallen significantly.
For the year to December 2020, Nigeria was hailed by Bloomberg as “the world’s best performing” stock exchange, with its All Share Index (ASI) up 50% for NGN investors and over 40% for US dollar investors. The main index retreated slightly in the first quarter of 2021.
However, research house African Markets says the “best-performing” crown rightfully belongs to Zimbabwe.
In 2020 the ZSE ASI index had a lift-off year, up 1,045.8% for investors in Zimbabwean dollars (ZWL) and up 135% in US dollars. It rose another 70% for ZWL and 65% for USD investors over three months to March 2021.
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Africa's top ranked companies 2021 @jmollel
Africa
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Africa's Top 250 Companies in 2021: Market capitalization by country ; SA $511,410mn, Morocco $62,182mn Nigeria 46,512mn, Egypt $37,757mn,, Kenya $20,344mn Tanzania $3,628mn @jmollel
Africa
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15-MAR-2021 :: Africa Emerging from The Pandemic
Africa
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5 March 2020 Debt, coronavirus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
Africa
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10-MAY-2020 :: For example Tourism – I believe it is stopped out through Q4 2021 [even with a Vaccine]
Africa
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Uganda’s central bank surprised with a benchmark interest-rate cut to the lowest level ever, saying economic recovery still requires monetary policy support. @economics
Africa
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It’s the third institution in Africa after Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo to have reduced borrowing costs this year.
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.0072
Africa
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.6562
Africa
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Nigeria’s currency weakened to a four-year low in the parallel market @markets
Africa
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Unauthorized dealers were offering the naira at 502 per dollar on Wednesday from 500 last week according to abokifx.com, a website that collates the data. That’s the weakest since February 2017.
The rate widens the spread between the official and the parallel market rate to 22%, when compared with the spot rate of 411.13 naira a dollar as of 1.55 p.m. in Lagos on Wednesday.
“Dollar demand is high; people are buying for storage,” Abubakar Mohammed, chief executive officer of Forward Marketing Communications bureau de change, said by phone from Lagos, the nation’s commercial hub.“There is no effect yet from any increased sale by the banks.”
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5 March 2020 A Currency Devaluation is now predicted and predictable. @TheAfricaReport
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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1566AD Letter from Antonio Vieira to king Henry of Portugal reporting on copper in Kongo written from Sao Tome @rhaplord
Africa
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"Growth expectations could swing between 7.6 % on a more optimistic scenario & 3.2% on a worst-case."- NCBA @MwangoCapital
Kenyan Economy
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"Growth expectations could swing between 7.6 % on a more optimistic scenario & 3.2% on a worst-case. This reflects the persistent uncertainty presented by the pandemic & underscores the need for flexibility and continued support from the government & the central bank"- NCBA
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Tea Stats for Q1 2021 (Jan to March): - Total exports: 153.3m Kgs (Up 19% YoY) @MwangoCapital
Kenyan Economy
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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read more |
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