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Thursday 24th of June 2021
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Morning
Africa
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Register and its all free.
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An Interview with Philippe Schaus CEO of Moët Hennessy @MoetHennessy @LVMH @RichTvAfrica
Misc.
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“Everybody, everybody everywhere, has his own movie going, his own scenario, and everybody is acting his movie out like mad, only most people don’t know that is what they’re trapped by, their little script.” ― The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test
Misc.
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Coastal cities face their mortality on the climate 'frontline'. #AFP @AFPphoto
Food, Climate & Agriculture
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Coastal cities face their mortality on the climate 'frontline' @AFP
Food, Climate & Agriculture
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For thousands of years, people have built their great metropolises right up against the contours of coasts, in estuaries and deltas, confident of the ebb and flow of the tides.
Domination of the seas allowed many coastal cities to become trading powerhouses and cultural melting pots.
But now that strength is becoming a liability as climate change swells the oceans, redrawing the map and putting hundreds of millions at risk.
That's the warning of an unpublished draft report by the UN's climate science advisory panel, seen exclusively by AFP, which outlines the vast and urgent climate threats facing the planet.
These cities are on the "frontline", the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report says.
Rising seas will likely spark mass migration and eventually force whole cities to be abandoned to the flood.
"I once was a bride of an affluent family," Yasmin Begum tells AFP in the bare corrugated metal hut she now shares with her relatives in the Bangladesh capital Dhaka.
"My in-laws and parents, they had everything -- cattle, nice house, farmland. But the river took it all away."
The family had lived a relatively prosperous life in the southern island district of Bhola, an exposed tendril of land at the outer limits of one of the world's most populated deltas.
Then one night 12 years ago, the raging Meghna river devoured everything they had.
Roughly a tenth of the world's population and assets are based less than 10 metres (33 feet) above sea level.
"Structurally, a lot of cities are set up in almost the exact wrong place for a world with rising seas," says Ben Strauss, CEO and chief scientist at Climate Central.
Cities like Venice and Jakarta are also sinking, while low-lying island nations, particularly in the Pacific, are at risk of disappearing under the waves.
The report says slashing emissions now can reduce the risks.
"But sea level rise is accelerating and will continue for millennia," it says.
The greenhouse gases already in the air have essentially baked-in the amount that waters will rise until around 2050.
By 2100, the IPCC has predicted water levels could be 60 centimetres (24 inches) higher, even if global warming is limited to well below two degrees Celsius -- the cornerstone target of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
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23-NOV 2015 I cannot help feeling we are like frogs in boiling water. We have created massive interference in the "cosmic tuning" phenomenon
Misc.
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Sunrise over Johannesburg @RLQuirk
Africa
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A luminous and Fairy Tale feel to life
Misc.
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Putin's house in Sochi, Russia designed by Roman Vlasov @HiraethResists
Misc.
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There is no happiness in life, only a mirage of it on the horizon, so cherish that.' Vladimir Putin quotes Tolstoy
Misc.
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“Happiness does not depend on outward things, but on the way we see them.” ― Leo Tolstoy
Misc.
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The pandemic is a portal
Misc.
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“All great literature is one of two stories; a man goes on a journey or a stranger comes to town.” ― Leo Tolstoy
Misc.
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Octavio Paz Here
Misc.
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My steps along this street
resound
in another street
in which
I hear my steps
passing along this street
in which
Only the mist is real
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Octavio Paz The Street
Misc.
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A long and silent street.
I walk in blackness and I stumble and fall
and rise, and I walk blind,
my feet stepping on silent stones and dry leaves.
Someone behind me also stepping on stones, leaves:
If I slow down, he slows;
If I run, he runs.
I turn:
nobody.
Everything dark and doorless.
Turning and turning among these corners
which lead forever to the street
where nobody waits for, nobody follows me,
where I pursue a man who stumbles
and rises and says when he sees me:
nobody.
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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BREAKING: BBC Journalist onboard of British HMS Defender ship does a live call in the middle of the action and says more than 20 Russian jets buzzing the ship at the same time - warning shots fired out of range. @ASBMilitary
Law & Politics
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Can hear Russian jets in background buzzing above the ship
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Russian warship fired warning shots at British Navy Ship in the Black Sea, while a Su-24 fighter jet conducted a "warning bombing" at the British Navy Ship @AmichaiStein1
Law & Politics
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HMS Defender was the subject of warning fire by Russian military forces
Law & Politics
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The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
Law & Politics
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Russian Su-30SM just intercepted American RC-135 over the sea of okhotsk - forcing the American recon aircraft to turn around @ASBMilitary
Law & Politics
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.@RahulGandhi was mocked for saying this. @SriniSivabalan @srinivasiyc
Law & Politics
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Conclusions
What if this is a Harbinger for later in the Year?
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28-MAR-2021 :: The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved #COVID19
Misc.
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Lowest weekly case incidence since February 2021 was reported last week .@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 22 June 2021
Misc.
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Global numbers of cases and deaths continued to decrease over the past week (14-20 June 2021) with over 2.5 million new weekly cases and over 64 000 deaths, a 6% and a 12% decrease respectively, compared to the previous week
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from Brazil (505 344 new cases; 11% increase)
India (441 976 new cases; 30% decrease)
Colombia (193 907 new cases; 10% increase)
Argentina (149 673 new cases; 16% decrease)
Russian Federation (108 139 new cases; 31% increase)
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@WHO #COVID19 Weekly Epi Update Last week: >2.5m cases (-6%) & >64k deaths (-12%). @mvankerkhove
Misc.
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US Delta & Gamma Combined they represent now about 50% of the S-positives (the non-SGTF) samples. @alexbolze
Misc.
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Delta coronavirus variant: scientists brace for impact @Nature
Misc.
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“In my mind, it will be really hard to keep out this variant,” says Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist and biostatistician at the Catholic University of Leuven (KU Leuven) in Belgium.
“It’s very likely it will take over altogether on a worldwide basis.”
Delta, also known as B.1.617.2, belongs to a viral lineage first identified in India during a ferocious wave of infections there in April and May.
Delta seems to be around 60% more transmissible than the already highly infectious Alpha variant (also called B.1.1.7) identified in the United Kingdom in late 2020.
Delta is moderately resistant to vaccines, particularly in people who have received just a single dose.
A Public Health England study published on 22 May found that a single dose of either AstraZeneca's or Pfizer's vaccine reduced a person’s risk of developing COVID-19 symptoms caused by the Delta variant by 33%, compared to 50% for the Alpha variant.
A second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine boosted protection against Delta to 60% (compared to 66% against Alpha), while two doses of Pfizer’s jab were 88% effective (compared to 93% against Alpha).
“The data coming out of the UK is so good, that we have a really good idea about how the Delta variant is behaving,” says Mads Albertsen, a bioinformatician at Aalborg University in Denmark. “That’s been an eye-opener.”
Cases of the Delta variant in the United Kingdom are doubling roughly every 11 days.
Delta poses the biggest risk, scientists say, to countries that have limited access to vaccines, particularly those in Africa, where most nations have vaccinated less than 5% of their populations.
“The vaccines will never come in time,” says Wenseleers. “If these kinds of new variant arrive, it can be very devastating.”
Surveillance in African countries is extremely limited, but there are hints that the variant is already causing cases there to surge.
Several sequences of the variant have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where an outbreak in the capital city of Kinshasa has filled hospitals. The variant has also been detected in Malawi, Uganda and South Africa.
Countries that have close economic links to India, such as those in East Africa, are probably at the greatest risk of seeing a surge in cases caused by Delta, says Tulio de Oliveira, a bioinformatician and director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform in Durban, South Africa.
In his country, all of the Delta cases have been detected in shipping crews at commercial ports, with no signs yet of spread in the general community.
De Oliveira expects it to stay this way. South Africa is in the middle of a third wave of infections caused by the Beta variant (also known as B.1.351) identified there last year.
This, combined with a lack travel from countries affected by Delta, should make it harder for a new variant to take hold.
Conclusions
I disagree with the inestimable De Oliveira and would like to see high frequency South Africa sequencing data
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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Misc.
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There are very long delays in sequencing samples. Very few samples from June have been sequenced. Would not be surprised if delta is circulating widely in GP. @hivepi
Misc.
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Very concerning article from China: @lrossouw
Misc.
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So explain this to me, if the #DeltaVariant is not pervasive, how do so many infected with this variant end up on the same flight out of the country ? What are the chances ? @CovidSupportSA
Misc.
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08-MAR-2021 the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World.
Misc.
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Forensic bioinformatics by @jbloom_lab @sergeilkp Recovery of deleted deep sequencing data sheds more light on the early Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 epidemic
Misc.
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ABSTRACT The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains shrouded in mystery.
Here I identify a data set containing SARS-CoV-2 sequences from early in the Wuhan epidemic that has been deleted from the NIH’s Sequence Read Archive.
I recover the deleted files from the Google Cloud, and reconstruct partial sequences of 13 early epidemic viruses.
Phylogenetic analysis of these sequences in the context of carefully annotated existing data suggests that the Huanan Seafood Market sequences that are the focus of the joint WHO-China report are not fully representative of the viruses in Wuhan early in the epidemic.
Instead, the progenitor of known SARS-CoV-2 sequences likely contained three mutations relative to the market viruses that made it more similar to SARS-CoV-2’s bat coronavirus relatives.
Chinese CDC Director Gao Fu dismissed the theory, stating “At first, we assumed the seafood market might have the virus, but now the market is more like a victim. The novel coronavirus had existed long before”
Indeed, there were reports of cases that far preceded the out- break at the Huanan Seafood Market.
The Lancet described a confirmed case having no association with the market whose symptoms began on December 1, 2019 (Huang et al. 2020).
The South China Morning Post described nine cases from November 2019 including details on patient age and sex, noting that none were confirmed to be “patient zero” (Ma 2020).
Professor Yu Chuanhua of Wuhan University told the Health Times that records he reviewed showed two cases in mid-November, and one suspected case on September 29 (Health Times 2020).
At about the same time as Professor Chuanhua’s interview, the Chinese CDC issued an order forbidding sharing of information about the COVID-19 epidemic without approval (China CDC 2020), and shortly thereafter Professor Chuanhua re-contacted the Health Times to say the November cases could not be confirmed (Health Times 2020).
In 2021, the joint WHO-China report dismissed all reported cases prior to December 8 as not COVID-19, and revived the theory that the virus might have originated at the Huanan Seafood Market (WHO 2021).
This paucity of sequences could be due in part to an order that unauthorized Chinese labs destroy all coronavirus samples from early in the outbreak, reportedly for “laboratory biological safety” reasons
The deleted data set contains sequencing of viral samples collected early in the Wuhan epidemic
The metadata in the first supplementary table of Farkas et al. (2020) indicates that the samples in deleted project PRNJA612766 were collected by Aisu Fu and Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University.
Known human SARS-CoV-2 sequences are consistent with expansion from a single progenitor sequence (Kumar et al. 2021; Pekar et al. 2021; Rambaut et al. 2020; Forster et al. 2020; Pipes et al. 2021).
However, attempts to infer this progenitor have been confounded by a perplexing fact: the earliest reported sequences from Wuhan are not the sequences most similar to SARS-CoV-2’s bat coronavirus relatives (Pipes et al. 2021).
This fact is perplexing because although the proximal origin of SARS- CoV-2 remains unclear (i.e., zoonosis versus lab accident), all reasonable explanations agree that at a deeper level the SARS- CoV-2 genome is derived from bat coronaviruses (Lytras et al. 2021).
One would therefore expect the first reported SARS- CoV-2 sequences to be the most similar to these bat coronavirus relatives—but this is not the case.
The discrepancy is especially pronounced for sequences from patients who had visited the Huanan Seafood Market (WHO 2021).
All sequences associated with this market differ from RaTG13 by at least three more mutations than sequences subsequently collected at various other locations (Figure 3)—a fact that is difficult to reconcile with the idea that the market was the original location of spread of a bat coron- avirus into humans
However, neither the sophisticated algorithm of Kumar et al. (2021) nor my more simplistic approach explain why the progenitor should be so different from the earliest sequences reported from Wuhan.
Repeating the analysis of the previous section with these changes shows that several sequences from the deleted project and all sequences from patients infected in Wuhan but sequenced in Guangdong are more similar to the bat coronavirus outgroup than sequences from the Huanan Seafood Market (Fig- ure 5).
This fact suggests that the market sequences, which are the primary focus of the genomic epidemiology in the joint WHO-China report (WHO 2021), are not representative of the viruses that were circulating in Wuhan in late December of 2019 and early January of 2020.
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I was able to determine deleted data corresponded to a study that partially sequenced “45 nasopharyngeal samples from [Wuhan] outpatients with suspected COVID-19 early in the epidemic“ @jbloom_lab
Misc.
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The conundrum See how the first reported viruses from Wuhan (leftmost blue points) aren’t the closest to RaTG13. (10/n) @jbloom_lab
Misc.
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The conundrum is easily seen by plotting the relative differences from the bat coronavirus RaTG13 outgroup versus collection date for early #SARSCoV2. See how the first reported viruses from Wuhan (leftmost blue points) aren’t the closest to RaTG13. (10/n)
How do deleted sequences I recovered relate to this conundrum? If we include those sequences, and note 4 sequences from Guangdong are from two groups of people infected in Wuhan in late Dec / early Jan, we get plausible scenarios that resolve above problems. (12/n)
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These two scenarios are plotted below. Each has a different “progenitor”, which is the sequence that gave rise to all *currently* known #SARSCoV2 sequences @jbloom_lab
Misc.
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These two scenarios are plotted below. Each has a different “progenitor”, which is the sequence that gave rise to all *currently* known #SARSCoV2 sequences (still may not be virus that infected patient zero if other early sequences remain unknown). (13/n)
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There are also broader implications. First, fact this dataset was deleted should make us skeptical that all other relevant early Wuhan sequences have been shared. We already know many labs in China ordered to destroy early samples: @jbloom_lab
Misc.
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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.
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What is clear is that the #COVID19 was bio-engineered The Science [and I am not a Scientist is irrefutable and in the public domain for those with a modicum of intellectual interest.
This information is being deliberately suppressed.
This took me to Thomas Pynchon
“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”
“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”
Now Why are we being led away from this irrefutable Truth
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Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19
Misc.
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Controlling the COVID19 Narrative, suppressing the Enquiry, parlaying the situation into one of singular advantage marks a singular moment and
Xi Jinping has exhibited Chinese dominance over multiple theatres from the Home Front, the International Media Domain, the ‘’Scientific’’ domain over which he has achieved complete ownership and where any dissenting view is characterized as a ‘’conspiracy theory’’
It remains a remarkable achievement
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Xi Jinping is both Sun Tzu ‘'The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting'' And hard edged at the same time.
Misc.
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27-JUL-2020 It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site
Misc.
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13-JUL-2020 :: Year of the Virus ’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory
Misc.
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There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1921
Dollar Index 91.79
Japan Yen 110.85
Swiss Franc 0.9192
Pound 1.3956
Aussie 0.7570
India Rupee 74.2275
South Korea Won 1135.56
Brazil Real 4.9666
Egypt Pound 15.6599
South Africa Rand 14.2379
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Dollar Index Chart INO 91.79
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1923
World Currencies
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08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding
World Of Finance
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As I write this on the 3rd of January 2021 $BTC has touched 35,000.00 in a parabolic shift higher
World Currencies
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Conclusions
Markets when they retreat always fall much much further than expectations.
I recall Russian Prins falling from 60+ to 6.
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27 NOV 17 "Wow! What a Ride!"
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Crude Oil Chart INO 73.16
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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International food prices have risen close to the 2010-11 peak. Some argue that the 2010 food spike helped trigger the Arab Spring. @ZiadMDaoud
Commodities
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"Bread, freedom and social justice" were the three main goals of the 2011 uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak
Commodities
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“The easiest way to create political problems is to have hungry people. I wouldn’t contend [the Arab Spring] was caused by food, but food was certainly part of the equation,” Ian McIntosh, former CEO of Louis Dreyfus. @@ZiadMDaoud
Commodities
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Incredible. Lebanon's economy is now smaller than Zimbabwe's, according to IMF calculations. @PaulWallace123
Emerging Markets
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21 OCT 19 :: The New Economy of Anger
Emerging Markets
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nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions.
We have recently witnessed the ‘’WhatsApp’’ Revolution in Lebanon, where a proposed Tax on WhatsApp calls sent up to 17 per cent of the Lebanese Population into the street.
The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot.
Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.
Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics,
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
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Lebanon: The size of the economy collapsed to $19 billion last year from $55 billion in 2018. GDP is at its lowest level since 2002 -- a setback of 18 years. It'll likely shrink further in 2021. @ZiadMDaoud
Emerging Markets
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Video of #Lebanon’s state collapse in real time: Armed clashes at a gas station as fuel shortages prevail. @Joyce_Karam
Emerging Markets
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Expect this to get worse with State and Army losing its grip:
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward
Emerging Markets
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African Region WHO regional overviews - Epidemiological week 14-20 June 2021 @whoafro
Africa
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The African Region reported over 132 000 new cases and over 1900 new deaths, a 39% and a 38% increase respectively compared to the previous week, the highest percentage increase reported globally.
The region reported a marked increase in weekly case incidence for the past month, with the largest increases in countries in the Southern and Eastern parts of Africa.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from
South Africa (70 739 new cases; a 48% increase)
Zambia (16 641 new cases; a 54% increase)
Uganda (9926 new cases; a 16% increase).
The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from
South Africa (937 new deaths; 1.6 new deaths per 100 000 population; a 29% increase)
Zambia (230 new deaths; 1.3 new deaths per 100 000; a 271% increase)
Uganda (203 new deaths; 0.4 new deaths per 100 000; a 314% increase)
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Drinking the Kool-Aid
Africa
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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 79 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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Zambia Rwanda Sierra Leone at peak Namibia at 99% DR Congo 93%
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Africa Wave 1 Peak 19,612 Infections July 23rd 2020 Wave 2 Peak 34,654 Infections @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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Zambia Rwanda Sierra Leone at peak Namibia at 99% DR Congo 93%
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''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics''
Africa
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498,546 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData [4.125% below a record high]
Africa
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Active #Covid19 cases record 520,000 was in January 2021 @NKCAfrica
Africa
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09-MAY-2021 Africa might be casting a weary glance over its shoulder at India and would certainly be prudent to do so.
Africa
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@doctorsoumya told me. “You could end up with explosive outbreaks.” @kakape
Africa
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#COVID19 UPDATE: A total of 70,186 tests were conducted in the last 24 hrs, with 17,493 new cases, which represents a 24.9% positivity rate @nicd_sa
Africa
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The number of cases reported today is approximately 17 500. But if we translate that to cases by specimen received date (which is closer to the day the test was done), and adjust for late reporting of these I estimate we have 18 500 cases today.
Africa
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Wave 1 peaked at ~11 400 and Wave 2 at ~19 400. My expectation is that we will surpass the Wave 2 peak fairly soon. @lrossouw
Africa
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Update #COVID19 in GAUTENG, 23/06/21 10,806 new cases = new daily record high @rid1tweets
Africa
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• 10,806 new cases = new daily record high
• Case incidence at 51.8 per 100k per day, now 52% higher than previous peaks
• 5,842 patients currently in hospital, surpassing numbers seen during peak of 2nd wave Ambulance
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Positivity rate of 15% in Mozambique and rising number of cases and hospitalizations. @geoffreyyork
Africa
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Uganda SARS-CoV-2 lineages in June show increase in B.1.617.2 (VOC Delta) coinciding with large case increases. @mlcotten13
Africa
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200 Ugandan legislators and Parliament staff have tested positive for Covid-19 in the last 3 weeks. @cobbo3
Africa
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Former Ivorian Prime Minister and former rebel leader Guillaume Soro was sentenced in his absence in Abidjan to life imprisonment for "endangering state security" for acts committed at the end of 2019 @afpfr
Africa
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.@SudanFinance announces abolition of #customs_dollar. It is the final step in the process of unifying the #exchange_rate. @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa
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Today our antiaircraft units downed a C130 transport plane carrying explosives and munitions. @reda_getachew
Africa
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.@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa
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Ethiopia turns to Russia. @RAbdiAnalyst
Africa
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#Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister H.E. Demeke Mekonnen met with #Russian Foreign Minister H.E. Sergei Lavrov in #Moscow, #Russia today @AddisZeybe
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.24
Africa
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.66
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Spread of SARS-CoV2 Variants of concern in Kenya @TWenseleers
Africa
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Here's an alternative chart, focused on the sequencing from May onwards, for Kenya #DeltaVariant (in red) is well established Data from GISAID @Mike_Honey_
Africa
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Homa Bay @kenyaone
Africa
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Africa
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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