But the real surprise was coming across the name Luis Antonio Sensini, the Argentinean writer, who had won third prize with a story in which the narrator went to the countryside and when he got there his son died, or went away to the country because his son had died in the city—it was hard to tell—in any case, out there in the countryside, on the bare plains, the narrator’s son went on dying, that much was clear. 

It was a claustrophobic story, very much in Sensini’s manner, set in a world where vast geographical spaces could suddenly shrink to the dimensions of a coffin, and it was better than the winning story and the one that came in second, as well as those that came in fourth, fifth, and sixth.

The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.

It was in 1991 [3 decades ago now] that Krauthammer spoke of the “Unipolar Moment” and highlighted that the US had emerged as the center of world power and unchallenged superpower.

The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
It was in 1991 [3 decades ago now] that Krauthammer spoke of the “Unipolar Moment” and highlighted that the US had emerged as the center of world power and unchallenged superpower.
Thirty years later, The US is exiting Afghanistan and we can speak of a Tripolar World with the US, China and Russia now ruling the c21st Roost. 

The ''Salami Slicer'' has snaffled up Hong Kong and the World waits on tenterhooks for the inevitable move on Taiwan.

The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.

―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions

UK findings suggest new variants could emerge sooner than earlier estimated

28-MAR-2021  we are seeing a sustained acceleration in mutant viruses.

Indeed, from analysis of closely related lineages, in SARS-CoV-2 the Ka/Ks ratio was previously estimated as 1.008, suggesting no within-host selection. 

By contrast, we find a higher number of observed SNPs at 4-fold degenerate sites than elsewhere and, allowing for the virus’s complex mutational and compositional biases, estimate that the mutation rate is at least 49-67% higher than would be estimated based on the rate of appearance of variants in sampled genomes.

This lineage was first identified in May 2021 and evolved from C.1, one of the lineages that dominated the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in South Africa and was last detected in January 2021. 

C.1.2 has since been detected across the majority of the provinces in South Africa and in seven other countries spanning Africa, Europe, Asia and Oceania. 

The emergence of C.1.2 was associated with an increased substitution rate, as was previously observed with the emergence of the Alpha, Beta and Gamma variants of concern (VOCs). 

C.1.2 contains multiple substitutions (R190S, D215G, N484K, N501Y, H655Y and T859N) and deletions (Y144del, L242-A243del) within the spike protein, which have been observed in other VOCs and are associated with increased transmissibility and reduced neutralization sensitivity. 

Of greater concern is the accumulation of additional mutations (C136F, Y449H and N679K) which are also likely to impact neutralization sensitivity or furin cleavage and therefore replicative fitness.

This suggested that the emergence of the C.1.2 lineage resulted from a rate closer to ~41.8mutations per year,which is approximately 1.7-fold faster than the current global rate and 1.8-fold faster than the initial estimate of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.

https://j.mp/3Dkitzc

Could it be the one to drive a wave after Delta?
Looks like it prefers the vaxxed
What about the gigavaxxed? Time will tell.

23-AUG-2021 ::  We have now crossed peak Vaccine Euphoria
https://j.mp/384Arar

The C.1.2 has 14 mutations in Spike, including three mutations at the Receptor Binding Motif, the Y449H, E484K, and N501Y - two of the mutations have been found in three of the four variants of concern (Alpha, Beta, and Gamma).
In relationship to decrease neutralization, in addition to the E484K, there are also deletions at position 144 and positions 242-243, the 144 deletions are also seen in the Alpha and the 242-243 in the Beta, which associates with a decrease neutralization of antibodies

There is also the N679K, which is a mutation just upstream of the S1/S2 furin cleavage including Q675H/R, Q677H/P, N679K, and P681H/R have occurred independently in many SARS-CoV-2 global lineages.

The 1918–19 influenza pandemic also appears to have caused more serious illness as time went on, says Lone Simonsen,  Roskilde University “Our data from Denmark suggests it was six times deadlier in the second wave.” 

Each successive variant has proven to be slightly more vaccine-evading than the last. @yaneerbaryam

Zambia attracted bids for more than eight times the amount of domestic-currency bonds offered at the latest auction, with yields plunging as investors bet on an economic recovery under new President Hakainde Hichilema.
The central bank raised 2.5 billion kwacha ($157 million) at a sale on Friday, having received bids for a record 12.5 billion kwacha. 

Yields fell across the curve, with those on the five-year notes dropping almost 8 percentage points to 25%.
While that yield doesn’t offer much real return, with inflation at 24.4% in August, a sharp appreciation in the nation’s currency could signal that consumer-price growth will ease in the coming months. 

Zambia imports everything from fuel to fertilizer, so currency volatility has a major bearing on inflation.
“There’s a sense of euphoria,” said Mweemba Mwiinga, chief investment officer at African Life Financial Services Ltd. in Lusaka, the capital. 

“If you’re a local investor, with the appreciation of the kwacha, there’s the expectation that inflation will come down. There’s a bit of FOMO as well.”
Since Hichilema was declared the election winner on Aug. 16, Zambian assets have rallied. 

The kwacha has surged 21% against the dollar, more than any other currency tracked by Bloomberg globally, and the southern African nation’s dollar bonds have shown world-beating returns. 

Investors are betting he’ll be able to revive an economy that became Africa’s first pandemic-era sovereign defaulter last year after a decade of overspending fueled by external loans.

The currency appreciation will continue, according to Situmbeko Musokotwane, who Hichilema appointed as finance minister on Friday. 

He aims to secure a deal with the International Monetary Fund by November, which will further boost confidence. 

He’s also seeking to more than double copper output over five years in Africa’s second-biggest producer of the metal. 

Musokotwane has emphasized the need to create jobs by boosting economic output, especially in mining. 

He’s struck a different tone to the previous government that had a hostile relationship with mining companies, that in turn held back on investment. 

“It’s not having copper underground that makes you rich,” he said in comments broadcast on state television on Sunday. 

“What makes you rich is the stuff to be mined out and sold, profits made, taxes paid, jobs created.”
Musokotwane will need to deliver a credible budget that finds a balance between appeasing voters and winning endorsement from the IMF, which may require cuts to fuel and farm subsidies. 

He also faces what promise to be tough debt-restructuring talks with creditors.
The finance minister said he intends to present his plan to lawmakers by late October.
“He has made a lot of positive pronouncements, but obviously the proof of the pudding will be in how some of these things will be implemented,” Mwiinga said by phone. “The key thing to watch will be the budget.”

A portal into a whole new normal.

23-AUG-2021 ::Finally I want to show you why Frontier markets are all about Politics

https://j.mp/2Wzp4Fg

https://j.mp/3mx5QLg

Ethiopia's 10-month internal war has come at a huge human cost, with thousands killed, millions displaced and many in desperate need of assistance.
But that's not the only damage being done to Africa's second most populous nation - the war has incurred a huge economic cost, too, that could take years to repair.
In the capital Addis Ababa, 26-year-old Tigist, who didn't want her full name to be used, says her monthly expenses have doubled for two reasons: the war that broke out in the northern region of Tigray in November and the coronavirus pandemic.
"Before Covid and the conflict, I would pay 1,000 birr [about $22; £16] each month for groceries. Now I spend 2,000 birr," she says. "Things are more expensive now - phones, food and clothes."
Official statistics show the cost of basic consumer goods has indeed gone up in Ethiopia -they were on average around a quarter more expensive in July than a year earlier.
Tigist is working as a supermarket cashier to support her family. 

She's responsible for the food shopping while her brother covers the rent.
"Also, the dollar exchange has not been good," she adds. "Last year, for $1 you would get 35 birr, now you get 45."
Faisal Roble, a US-based analyst who specialises in the Horn of Africa, says that spending on the war effort "has really negatively impacted Ethiopia's capacity to access dollars", and has caused the exchange rate to deteriorate.
It is not clear how much the war has cost but Trading Economics forecasts military expenditure will reach $502m (£365m) by the end of the year, up from $460m last year.
Last week, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said the conflict had "drained over a billion dollars from the country's coffers".
Prior to the global pandemic and the war, Ethiopia's economy was one of the fastest-growing in the region, expanding by an average of 10% a year in the decade to 2019, according to the World Bank.
While Tigist is referring to the official rate available in banks, the birr has fallen even further in the informal market, Mr Roble says, and has now reached 67 birr against the dollar.
He adds that business owners in the country are nervous about the worsening security situation as the war spreads beyond Tigray and into the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara.
Many are draining their accounts and taking their cash to money traders on the border with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, and that's forcing the birr's value to drop even lower, Mr Roble says.
The civil war started when the party in power in Tigray, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked federal military bases in November, amidst an escalating feud with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed over the dissolution of the ruling coalition and the postponement of elections.
Since then, Ethiopia's military - as well as its Eritrean allies, state police forces and local militias - have fought a bloody war against Tigrayan fighters.
Both sides have been accused of committing atrocities, including rape and mass civilian killings.
Tigray has been without basic services, including telecommunications and banks, since the federal government instigated a blockade on it in June, after the rebels recaptured the regional capital Mekelle.
More than 400,000 people in Tigray are already living in famine-like conditions, while aid distribution has been stifled and electricity and fuel supplies are dwindling, pushing prices up.
Mekelle resident Filmon Berhane told BBC Tigrinya that food and rent have recently skyrocketed.
"There is no money as all the banks are closed and government offices are not paying salaries," he said.
Mobile phone auction hit
Internationally, the war is having a huge impact on Ethiopia's reputation as a place to invest, says economist Irmgard Erasmus from the NKC African Economics consultancy group.
"If your consumers are under severe pressure from high inflation, you don't see consumer-driven growth as we see in the US or the Eurozone," she says.
"Generally, that leaves foreign investment to really drive growth, and it's exactly this that's being attacked by reputational risk."
Ms Erasmus points to the recent liberalisation of Ethiopia's telecoms sector, which originally attracted interest from a number of providers, including South African telecoms giant MTN.
In the end though, only one company successfully bid for either of the two telecoms licences on offer, a consortium led by Kenya's Safaricom which pledged $850m.
While rules that initially restricted new license holders from operating a mobile money system dampened investor interest, industry sources say the Tigray conflict also weighed heavily on investors' minds.
Pressure to end war
Ethiopia's overall economic growth for this year is forecast to slow significantly from 6% in 2020 to just 2% in 2021 - the lowest level in almost two decades, according to the IMF.
The country imports about $14bn of goods per year, while it exports just $3.4bn.
Also worrying economic observers is Ethiopia's national debt, which some expect to reach $60bn this year, or nearly 70% of GDP.
"This is a conservative estimate," says Ms Erasmus, adding Ethiopia's military spend could be higher than forecast, and it has taken on unreported debt in the past.
While the US has imposed some visa restrictions on Ethiopians involved in the war, and withheld some spending, so far, the international community has been reluctant to exert maximum economic pressure on the government, or cut generous aid programmes. 

Around a quarter of the population live below the national poverty line, and the average yearly income is just $850 per person.
"There is clearly scope for ratcheting up the sanctions if Prime Minister Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace prize in 2019, does not deescalate the conflict," says Witney Schneidman a non-resident fellow with the Brookings think-tank in Washington.
The Biden administration's dilemma, says Mr Schneidman, is to put enough pressure on Mr Abiy to end the war without isolating Ethiopia completely.
"All tools are on the table, but you've got 110m people, you can't make the nation a pariah, it's too important, too strategic," he says.

November 8, 2020 Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance
https://j.mp/35ekJJr

‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           26.80
Total Shares Issued:          1497745029.00
Market Capitalization:        40,139,566,777
EPS:             2.77
PE:                 9.675
  
NCBA Group reports HY Earnings through 30th June 2021 versus 30th June 2020

HY 2021 Assets 542.595596b versus 514.030076b +5.55% 

HY HTM Kenya Government Securities 102.693726b versus 89.749224b

HY Available for Sale Kenya Government Securities 69.704013b versus 65.154297b

HY Loans and Advances to Customers 239.601335b versus 248.306422b -3.505% 

HY Customer Deposits 437.340268b versus 390.488899b

HY Total Interest Income 22.474797b versus 20.680644b 

HY Total Interest Expense 9.047788b versus 9.467070b

HY Net Interest Income 13.427009b versus 11.213574b

HY Total Non-Interest Income 10.704593b versus 10.075361b

HY Total Operating Income 24.131602b versus 21.288935b +13.35% 

HY Loan Loss Provision 5.918542b versus 7.625535b

HY Staff Costs 3.878002b versus 3.503010b

HY Other Operating Expenses 4.865414b versus 4.018163b

HY Total Operating Expenses 16.326191b versus 16.990798b

HY Profit before Tax and exceptional Items 7.805411b versus 4.298137b

HY Profit before Tax after Exceptional Items 7.414161b versus 3.906887b

HY profit after Tax and exceptional Items 4.657171b versus 2.632161b

HY EPS 2.83 versus 1.76 +60.795% 

HY Interim Dividend 0.75

HY Total NPLS & Advances 37.466487b versus 31.739448b

HY Cash and Cash Equivalents 59.683433b 

Conclusions 

P/B multiple of 0.6x against a sector median of 0.8x. 

Inexpensive versus its peer Group 

Par Value:                  
Closing Price:           22.95
Total Shares Issued:          826810738.00
Market Capitalization:        18,975,306,437
EPS:             9.77
PE:                 2.349

I&M Group reports Half Year Earnings through 30th June 2021 versus 30th June 2020

HY Total Assets 382.571201b versus 340.639912b +12.31% 

HY Loans and Advances to Customers 204.457979b versus 184.564775b 

HY Deposits from Customers 276.755255b versus 252.483719b +12% 

HY Interest Income 14.635382b versus 13.116189b

HY Interest Expense [5.769826b] versus [6.196884b]

HY Net Interest Income 8.865556b versus 6.919305b

HY Net Fees and Commission Income 1.996570b versus 1.893220b

HY Revenue 10.862126b versus 8.812525b

HY Net Trading Income 1.530306b versus 2.019672b

HY Net Operating Income before change in expected credit losses and other credit impairment [1.052772b] versus [1.030628b]

HY Net Operating Income 11.547520b versus 9.935799b

HY Staff Costs [2.765439b] versus [2.357615b]

HY Other Expenses [2.017202b] versus [1.633303b]

HY Operating Expenses [5.945983b] versus [4.858918b]

HY Operating Profit 5.601537b versus 5.076881b

HY Profit before income Tax 5.869460b versus 4.497335b +30.509% 

HY Profit after Tax 4.249653b versus 3.190068b

HY Total comprehensive income for the period 3.426177b versus 3.347876b

HY EPS 2.44 versus 1.85 +31.89% 

HY Cash and Cash Equivalents 19.904152b

Total assets up 4% to Ksh 305B
-Customer deposits up 0.9%
-Loan book up 7.7%
-Net interest income up 28.2%
-Loan loss provisions up 46.4%
-PAT down 6.4% to Ksh 3.2B

-Interest income [loans] down 6.4%
-Interest income [govt. sec] up 91.2%
-Non interest income down 11.6%
-Total operating expenses up 25.2%
-Gross NPLs up 10.4% to Ksh 21B

Conclusions

Trades on an implied Forward PE of 4.702 which is inexpensively priced versus its Peer Group

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           360.00
Total Shares Issued:          72472950.00
Market Capitalization:        26,090,262,000
EPS:             50.06
PE:                 7.191

Jubilee reports H1 2021 Earnings versus H1 2020 

HY 2021 Gross written premium and contributions 22.206750b versus 20.225097b

HY Gross earned premiums 15.903849b versus 15.518621b

HY Outward reinsurance [4.7389869b] versus [5.368637b]

HY Net Insurance premium revenue 11.163980b versus 10.149984b+9.99%

HY Other Revenue 6.707283b versus 3.802522b +76.39%

HY Total Income 17.871263b versus 13.952506b

HY Net Insurance benefits and claims [12.234158b] versus [8.611781b] +42% 

HY Total Expenses and commission [3.390802b] versus [3.266473b]

HY Result of Operating Activities 2.246303b versus 2.074252b +8.29%

HY Share of results of associates 885.931m versus 302.536m +192.834%

HY Profit from Operating Activities 3.132234b versus 2.376788b +31.785% 

HY Gain on disposal of Subsidiary 2.073744b

HY  Group profit before Taxation 5.205978b versus 2.376788b +119%

HY Net Profit 4.506107b versus 1.8390475b +145% 

HY Total Equity 39.772760b versus 35.535381b

HY Total Assets 151.724117b versus 145.863583b

Interim Dividend 1.00 a share

-Total assets Ksh 151.7B
-Gross written premiums up 10%
-Net benfits & claims up 42%
-Gain on disposal of subsidiary Ksh 2.07B
-Total comprehensive income  Ksh 4.23B
-Interim dividend Ksh 1.00

Conclusions

The core business accelerated +31.785%

The Allianz Partnership is an earnings accelerant

These are strong numbers and going forward we need to accelerate the earning curve. 

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           18.35
Total Shares Issued:          81731808.00
Market Capitalization:        1,499,778,677
EPS:             -3.17
PE:                 -5.789

Standard Group reports H1 2021 Earnings versus H1 2020 

HY 2021 Revenue 1.596935b versus 1.396432b +14%

HY Total Operating costs [1.602553b] versus [1.739493b]

HY Finance Costs [Net] [81.560m] versus [73.502m]

HY Loss before Income Tax [87.178m] versus [416.563m]

HY Loss after Tax [61.213m] versus [306.129m]

HY EPS [0.67] versus [3.01]

HY Total Assets 4.235325b versus 4.054840b

HY Cash and Cash Equivalents [103.721m] versus [191.361m]

Commentary

The operating environment continues to improve, with key clients gradually increasing their advertising budgets, while recently launched products have continued to increase their contribution towards revenue growth. 

The Group’s performance for the 6 months period ended 30 June 2021 showed improvement with a 14% revenue increase to close at Kshs. 1.6 billion compared to Kshs. 1.4 billion for the same period in 2020.
Stringent cost cutting measures that the Group adopted in 2020, have been sustained in 2021, leading to an 8% reduction in total operating expenses compared to the same period last year.
The Group’s result after tax significantly improved, closing at a loss after tax of Kshs. 61 million against a loss after tax of Kshs. 306 million for the same period last year, representing an 80% reduction in the loss for the period.
Outlook
Revenue generation and recovery remains a priority for the Board and management as they continue to invest in the growth of digital platforms and other new products, while strengthening our legacy products on print and broadcast platforms. 

Following the launch of the converged newsroom and the revamped Standard newspaper and website in the first half of the year, we are confident there will be improvements in the quality journalism supported by a digital first approach that will cater to the needs of our customers across all platforms.

-Total assets Ksh 4.2B
-Revenue up 14% to Ksh 1.6B
-Total operating expenses down 8%
-Ksh 61M loss [2020: Ksh 306M loss]

Conclusions

An improving trend 

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           26.35
Total Shares Issued:          71181000.00 [Please check number of shares]
Market Capitalization:        1,875,619,350
EPS:             8.42
PE:                 3.129

Crown Paints reports H1 2021 Earnings versus H1 2020

HY 2021 Revenue from contracts with Customers 4.914b versus 3.930b +25% 

HY Profit before Tax 503m versus 346m

HY Profit after Tax 339m versus 253m

HY Cash and cash Equivalents 86m versus 304m

Diluted Earnings per share 2.69 versus 2.27

BUSINESS COMMENTARY
During the half-year ended 30th June 2021, the increased uptake of our product has seen Group revenue grow by 25% compared to a growth of 10% for the comparable June period in 2020. 

The covid-19 containment measures continue to negatively impact the cost of production as we have witnessed an increase in the cost of raw materials and transport cost. 

This impact remains a challenge to the business as it puts pressure on the profitability of our products and cashflow.
The Group hopes that the strengths of our brand, our network of stakeholders and the loyalty of our customers continues to yield better returns for the business and this is hoped to remain into the foreseable future.

@CrownPaintsPLC H1 2021 results: @MwangoCapital

-Total assets Ksh 6.58B
-Revenue up 25%
-PBT up 45.4% to Ksh 503M
-PAT up 34% to Ksh 339M
-No interim dividend