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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 28th of January 2021
 
Afternoon
Africa



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Everything - politics, markets, business, media - seems like a massive generation vs. generation battle. The kids have nuclear-grade memes and a videogame-honed ability to find exploits. @coloradotravis
Misc.



The grey hairs have the money and the power.

The kids have nuclear-grade memes and a videogame-honed ability to find exploits.

Just remember that one day the war will end.

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08-JAN-2018 :: The Crypto Avocado Millenial Economy.
World Currencies



The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.


Gladwellian level move. “The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire”- Malcolm Gladwell. 

The new high tech, millenial, crypto, avocado economy exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential and even non-linear characteristics not unlike Ebola.


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27 NOV 17 :: "Wow! What a Ride!"
World Of Finance


Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”

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BlackBerry, AMC and Other Reddit YOLO Favorites That Aren’t GameStop A frenzy from online traders is sending shares of some companies soaring
World Of Finance



It isn’t just GameStop.

Shares of the Texas-based videogame retailer surged as much as 145% on Monday alone, before giving up most of their gains to end up only 18%. But GameStop Corp. is far from alone in going vertical this year.

Everything from a hydrogen battery maker to a struggling movie-theater chain have rocketed in the past few weeks. 

Behind the swings, many see ordinary investors, stuck at home in the pandemic, swapping tips and hatching trading strategies on online forums like Reddit’s WallStreetBets—often buying things Wall Street has bet against. 

Many tout their long-shot wagers with the expression “YOLO,” or, “You only live once.”

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Seems the WSB strategy that is working well is two-fold: @QuisitiveInvest
World Of Finance




a) Identify high short interest stocks

b) Find ones with (or create) high open interest

This forces two groups' hands:

1) Short sellers

2) Options market makers

Can be a very effective way to force buying


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Without going into all the greeks, we'll focus on 'delta @QuisitiveInvest
Misc.

Without going into all the greeks, we'll focus on 'delta', which is basically the imputed odds (from IV) that an option will be in the money. So if a stock is at $10, a $15 call may have a delta of 25-30 or so, roughly meaning stock has 25-30% chance of going to $15

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To hedge, he "delta hedges", meaning he doesn't buy 100 shares at $10 on a $15 call, he buys the 'odds-adjusted', or 'delta-adjusted' amount @QuisitiveInvest
World Of Finance


When a market participant buys this $15 call, a market maker sells it to him, which effectively makes him "short" that stock.

To hedge, he "delta hedges", meaning he doesn't buy 100 shares at $10 on a $15 call, he buys the 'odds-adjusted', or 'delta-adjusted' amount

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As the stock rises, the delta increases, forcing him to buy more shares to keep the position "delta-neutral" @QuisitiveInvest
World Of Finance

 In this case, he'd buy 25-30 shares. As the stock rises, the delta increases, forcing him to buy more shares to keep the position "delta-neutral". If stock goes to $15, delta is going to be in the 50-60 range, so he has to double his position, adding buying pressure

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08-JUN-2020 :: Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom.
World Of Finance


“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

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“My take on Trump is that he is an inevitable creation of this unreal normal world,” Adam Curtis says.
Law & Politics


“Politics has become a pantomime or vaudeville in that it creates waves of anger rather than argument. Maybe people like Trump are successful simply because they fuel that anger, in the echo chambers of the internet.”

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Data from #Covid19 worldwide on January 26: + 546,269 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 100,271,275 in total @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.


Data from #Covid19 worldwide on January 26: + 546,269 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 100,271,275 in total + 17,266 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,158,089 in total

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Misc.



In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.


A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions


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Important new data. Increased Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Variants B.1.351 and B.1.1.7 to Antibody Neutralization. @PeterHorby
Misc.


Limited antigenic impact for B.1.1.7 but more pronounced effects for B.1.351. Real world impact to be determined.

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.



“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

 “There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”

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It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later.
Law & Politics



Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19. 

It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later. 

There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.

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Fall by John Preston review – the truth about Robert Maxwell @guardian
Law & Politics




Soon after he took over the New York Daily News – his last and most foolish purchase – Robert Maxwell asked the tabloid’s publisher, Jim Hoge, if he could do him a favour: “Would you mind,” Maxwell asked, “if I stood here with the door open and shouted at you for a while?” 

Hoge had known worse requests; the paper had recently emerged from a long and bitter struggle with the print unions, and its circulation was under the thumb of the Mafia.

“I told him to go ahead,” Hoge said, remembering the incident to John Preston. 

“Immediately, Maxwell started lacing into me, banging on my desk with his fist and saying how it was outrageous that I had an office that was larger than his. After about 40 seconds of this, he said ‘Thank you’ in a much quieter voice and went out.”

Hoge later discovered that Maxwell had staged this little scene to impress the youngest of his nine children, Ghislaine, who had noticed the difference in office sizes and was now within earshot. But to impress her how, exactly? 

As he was about to make Ghislaine his “emissary” in New York, it may have been intended as a lesson in how to treat underlings. More likely, it was just Maxwell being Maxwell – showing off to his daughter, keen to attract attention to himself whenever a suitable moment arose.

His size alone made him hard to ignore – 22 stone in the lean years – but Maxwell added props to make his figure even more memorable. 

Cigars, dinner jackets, and a visit every week by the Savoy’s head barber to dye his hair and eyebrows jet black; I remember that when he took command of a Glasgow newspaper in the 1970s (a brief episode that this book doesn’t mention) there was also talk of a corset. 

The voice – “Churchill’s rumbling cadences [with] an extra helping of treacle”, as Preston describes it – came out of his early encounters with the English language, listening to the prime minister’s speeches during the war. “This Was Their Finest Hour” featured in his Desert Island discs.

The effect varied according to the witness. To Clive James, spotting him at the Cannes film festival, he looked like “a ton and a half of half-cured ham wrapped in a white tuxedo”

To a print union negotiator in New York he seemed “like an English nobleman”. To Rupert Murdoch, whose esteem he craved, he was never more than a crook and a buffoon.

The two media magnates had names with the same initials, the same number of syllables – they might have been invented for a Jeffrey Archer novel, but for the fact that they disobeyed a cardinal rule of popular fiction: in novels about rivals, the poorer must outsmart the richer because his wits have been honed by his early struggle. 

Murdoch edited the school magazine, went to Oxford, and inherited his dad’s newspaper in sunny south Australia. 

Maxwell, born in Ruthenia, an obscure province in central Europe, had a father, Mehel Hoch, who traded in animal skins and toured the countryside with a mule to carry them between seller and buyer. 

The Hochs had nine children, two of whom died young, and lived in a two-room wooden shack with earthen floors and a cesspit at the back. Also, they were Jewish. 

After Maxwell, then known as Jan Hoch, left his native town in June 1939 he never again saw his parents, his grandfather, his younger brother or three of his five sisters. 

Auschwitz claimed six of them; the seventh, his sister Shenya, disappeared after her arrest in Budapest. 

Jan Hoch, meanwhile, went through several changes of name and eventually reached Britain via Beirut and Marseille.

Three weeks after D-day, he was back in France, first as a sergeant and then as junior infantry officer fighting his way east across Europe. 

For his “magnificent example and offensive spirit” in rescuing a trapped allied platoon, he was awarded the Military Cross. 

He read books constantly and excelled at languages (by 1945, English, German and French had been added to Yiddish, Hungarian, Czech and Romanian). 

A fondness for disguise and what Preston calls “a natural flair for subterfuge” made him useful to British intelligence in ruined Berlin, which is where he met the publisher Ferdinand Springer, whose distinguished backlist of scientific books and journals lay heaped in a large warehouse 100 miles from the city, safe from British and American bombing. 

Industry and academia in allied countries had been cut off from German research since 1939 and they were keen to catch up on it. 

Maxwell set up a company, reached a worldwide distribution deal with Springer-Verlag, and arranged to have the stock – 300 tons of books and journals – transported to London by freight train and a convoy of lorries. The company was funded by MI6. It was the foundation of all Maxwell’s later success.

By the time he was 25, he had proved himself quick-witted, bold, clever, resourceful and ruthless. Cruel, too: in the last weeks of the war, he executed a local mayor in the square of a German town (not named) by shooting him through the head, and, later, allegedly killed a group of young German troops who had already surrendered. 

He married Betty, a French Protestant, in Paris in 1945, and was quick to write down for her his six rules for a happy marriage, beginning: “1, Don’t nag, 2, Don’t criticise unduly … ” 

Half a century later she recalled in her memoir how his normally full lips could sometimes tighten to strips “thin as filaments of blood” depicting “death and carnage”.

Murdoch, however, was a different kind of opponent, one that had taken up residence inside Maxwell’s head. 

Preston contends that Maxwell’s obsessive interest in him – his need both to emulate and beat him – set in train a course of events “that would lead to his physical and mental disintegration, his downfall and, ultimately, his death”

Those events began in America in the late 80s, but the rivalry was 20 years older, dating to Fleet Street in the 60s.

Newspapers fascinated Maxwell, as they do many egoists, but somehow Murdoch managed to outwit him whenever he tried to get his hands on a newspaper business. 

It happened with the News of the World, the Sun, Today, the Times and the Sunday Times. 

Often it was Maxwell’s fault: he had an incontinent tendency to brag about a deal before the contract was signed

In the case of the News of the World, however, darker forces were at work. 

In 1968, the weekly anthology of smut that was then Britain’s biggest selling newspaper enjoyed the ownership of the eccentric Jackson family, one of whose members was the bisexual amateur jockey Professor Derek Jackson, a lover of Francis Bacon and recently married for the sixth time. 

To fund this complicated lifestyle, Jackson decided to sell his 25% stake in the family company. 

Maxwell made a generous offer, to be rebuffed via an editorial in the News of the World by the editor, Stafford Somerfield, who argued that “it would not be a good thing for Mr Maxwell, formerly Jan Ludwig Hoch, to gain control of … a newspaper which I know is as British as roast beef and Yorkshire pudding”. 

“This is a British newspaper, run by British people,’ he concluded. Let’s keep it that way.”

Even in 1968, the year of Enoch Powell’s “rivers of blood” speech, the editorial caused outrage – which had, from Maxwell’s point of view, the unfortunate effect of reviving Murdoch’s own hopes of buying the paper. He flew to London and found the Jackson family receptive: Murdoch might speak with a ghastly accent but at least he wasn’t called Hoch. Xenophobia – possibly with a twist of antisemitism – had opened the door to Murdoch’s global advance. 

As Harold Evans, who knew both men, observed: “Maxwell thought he’d entered the ring with another boxer … In fact, he’d entered the ring with a ju-jitsu artist who also happened to be carrying a stiletto.”

But he continued the hopeless struggle. Not content with acquiring Mirror Group Newspapers and rigging the spot the ball contest, he looked west to the US, where Murdoch was emerging as a big player. 

Maxwell was a man without friends – sycophants were a different matter – but in the property developer Gerald Ronson he had someone who came close to an idea of one. 

It was Ronson who encouraged him to buy the yacht that the brother of Adnan Khashoggi, the Saudi arms dealer, wanted rid of when it was still half-built on the stocks. 

It was Ronson, too, who encouraged him to return to Judaism – “How come all of a sudden you’re not Jewish any more?” he asked him in 1984, by which time Maxwell had denied – or at least never willingly admitted - his Jewishness for 40 years.

When Ronson heard of his American ambitions, he was discouraging. But Maxwell wasn’t to be put off. 

In Ronson’s words: “Maxwell had to be in America, and he had to be bigger than Murdoch.” 

In 1988 he overpaid for Macmillan US ($2.6bn) and the Official Aviation Guide ($750m) in a spending spree that culminated in the tottering New York Daily News, for which any price at all was too much. 

To raise the cash, he borrowed from a total of 44 banks and financial syndicates, all of them anxious to lend as much as he wanted. 

The conclusion of the Department of Trade and Industry’s 1971 report into Maxwell’s affairs – that he wasn’t fit “to exercise proper stewardship of a publicly quoted company” – had been long forgotten.

We know the rest. Profits fell, interest rates soared, a full-blown recession loomed. The banks wanted their money back and Maxwell’s share price needed support. 

Assets were sold – even Pergamon publishing, which had been the core of the business from the beginning. 

Eventually, his only solution was to rob the Mirror pension fund; and, when he knew that was close to discovery, to jump from the stern of his boat.

Preston’s biography is largely anecdotal, without too much concern for context. The stories are good and Preston tells them with his gift for the kind of wry comedy that suits English decline. 

The “mystery” in his book’s subtitle surely refers to his behaviour in life rather than the manner of his death – of his family only Ghislaine believes he was murdered (oddly, given that her last instruction to the yacht’s crew was to “shred everything”). 

The picture of Maxwell that emerges is vivid but familiar: bombastic, florid, devious, gluttonous, bullying, absurd. But why was he these things?

Ghislaine was his favourite child, but that hadn’t always been so. According to Preston, her parents had rather ignored her until, aged three, she stood before her mother and said simply: “Mummy, I exist.” 

Her father may have been trying to make a similar point, but to himself as much as to his audience.

• Fall: The Mystery of Robert Maxwell is published by Viking (RRP £18).


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2094

Dollar Index 90.748

Japan Yen 104.312

Swiss Franc 0.8898

Pound 1.3651

Aussie 0.76315

India Rupee 73.13555

South Korea Won 1119.69

Brazil Real 5.4139

Egypt Pound 15.716

South Africa Rand 15.33752

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04-JAN-2021 :: $BTC has touched 35,000.00 in a parabolic shift higher. I believe $BTC's recent surge puts it now in ''nose-bleed'' territory.
World Currencies






As I write this on the 3rd of January 2021 $BTC has touched 35,000.00 in a parabolic shift higher. I believe $BTC's recent surge puts it now in ''nose-bleed'' territory. I believe its a Trading Sell with a very wide Stop. It is currently at its maximum ''Safe Haven'' / Fiat debasement premia.




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Sudan loses out on wealth from gum arabic harvest @FT @davidpilling
Africa




Nearly 20 years ago, after stories began circulating that Osama bin Laden held a stake in Sudan’s then state-owned gum arabic industry, there was a halfhearted attempt to boycott the substance.

“Do the world a favour,” urged one American campaigner outraged that US consumers might unwittingly be supporting the business interests of the man behind the Islamist terrorist attacks that brought down the World Trade Center. “Don’t buy anything with gum arabic in it.”

That was a near-impossible request. Such was gum arabic’s importance to global industries — including food — that, after intense lobbying, Washington had already exempted it from sanctions imposed on Sudan in 1997.

A sap — technically an exudate — from acacia trees, gum arabic is a small, but vital, ingredient in many items that make the modern world go round, from cat food to the glue on Rizla cigarette papers.

Sudan, where it is used in the smoke-bathing beauty ritual performed by married women, accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the world’s raw exports.

For Sudan, there is a catch. As with many global commodities from oil to cocoa, relatively little value stays in the country. 

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global revenue from crude gum arabic exports rose from an annual $95m in the early 1990s to $150m in 2014-2016.


Over the same period, income from exports of processed gum rose from $74m to $192m, 90 per cent of which went to European producers.

“Sudan does not only have an advantage, we almost have a monopoly,” says Amjed Farid, assistant chief of staff to Sudan’s prime minister.




“But corruption and mismanagement of the previous regime has prevented us from taking advantage of this great wealth.”

Gum arabic is a polysaccharide that has proved difficult, if not impossible, to synthesise, though it can be substituted by non-natural products.

It grows in the Sahel in the “gum belt”, a semi-arid strip of land that stretches from Mauritania in west Africa to Eritrea in the east. Of 600 species of acacia tree only two produce it.

Gum is rarely produced in acacia plantations. Instead, tappers scrape the bark of wild acacia trees and return weeks later to collect the gem-coloured balls that form on the branches.

Van Dalen estimates that tappers receive only 3 to 10 per cent of the final price.



Partly as a result of the meagre income, production collapsed at the turn of the millennium.

It has since recovered to around 70,000 tonnes a year thanks partly to stronger international demand for natural products. Urged by the World Bank, Sudan liberalised its state monopoly in 2009. Today, about 140 Sudanese companies export gum, 10 of them significant.

Alland & Robert, a French company that controls about a quarter of the global gum arabic supply, obtains about 65 per cent of its product from Sudan. It also sources gum from Senegal, Mali, Mauritania, Chad and Eritrea.

Frédéric Alland, chief executive and a fifth generation family member at the company, visits Sudan regularly.

He estimates that the industry employs 500,000 gum collectors and a further 500,000 people who sort and clean it. But the French company, which first came to Sudan in 1884, employs none of them directly.


Instead, it deals with local suppliers, such as Nopec and Um-Al Gura, which buy the gum at auction in towns in Darfur, North Kordofan, South Kordofan and Blue Nile states where gum is produced.

Mr Alland rarely goes to auctions himself, he says, for fear of revealing too much foreign interest. “If I’m in the city, the price jumps.”

However, he disputes the accusation that gum tappers, including in troubled regions such as Darfur, are badly paid “They don’t need seeds, they don’t need fertiliser and they don’t need pesticide,” he says.

“They just need their labour to get the gum. The farmers are getting important [good] money . . . to buy food, clothes and medicine.” 

Mr Alland says his company provides value-added services, including guaranteeing the integrity of supply. 

Most of the gum is shipped from Port Sudan to Le Havre in Normandy, where it is processed into a fine white powder.



Processing gum to the exacting standards of the global food industry is technically demanding, the company says. “It seems to be simple, but it is not,” says Charles Alland, deputy general director.

Osama Daoud Abdellatif, chairman of the DAL group, Sudan’s biggest conglomerate, disagrees. 

“It is not rocket science,” he says. “It is the same factory where you do fresh milk to powdered milk.”



DAL is now processing small quantities in a converted factory in Khartoum. Customers, including Coca-Cola, with which DAL already does business, are happy with the quality, he says.

Mr Daoud concedes it is a modest start. “This market is dominated by companies who have controlled it for years,” he says.

“Sudan has been exporting raw gum arabic for decades and some French and Irish companies make all the money. They are not going to make it easy for us.”



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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
Africa


Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.

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CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ: Confirmed: 3 474 134 (+ 19523)Actives: 435 303 (-7719) @NCoVAfrica
Africa



Confirmed: 3 474 134 (+ 19523)

Actives: 435 303 (-7719)

Deaths: 86 950 (+ 1031)

Recoveries: 2 949 484 (+ 26211)

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US says Eritrean forces should leave Tigray immediately @AP
Africa




The United States says all soldiers from Eritrea should leave Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region “immediately.”

A State Department spokesperson in an email to The Associated Press late Tuesday cited “credible reports of looting, sexual violence, assaults in refugee camps and other human rights abuses.”

“There is also evidence of Eritrean soldiers forcibly returning Eritrean refugees from Tigray to Eritrea,” the spokesperson said.


Witnesses have estimated that the Eritrean soldiers number in the thousands. Eritrean officials have not responded to questions. 

The information minister for Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive countries, this week tweeted that “the rabid defamation campaign against Eritrea is on the rise again.“

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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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The fugitive leader of Ethiopia’s defiant Tigray region on Monday called on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to “stop the madness” and withdraw troops
Africa


The fight is about self-determination of the region of around 6 million people, the Tigray leader said, and it “will continue until the invaders are out.” 

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Turning To Africa Spinning Top
Africa



Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
Africa



Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

The Event is no longer over the Horizon.

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An Africa Roadmap for Biden @ProSyn @CelestinMonga
Africa




For years, the US-Africa relationship has fallen short of what it could be, owing to misaligned priorities and a mix of neglect and contempt on the part of the United States. 

But the door is open for the US to improve its engagement with the continent; President Joe Biden's administration need only walk through it.

In recent decades, the US-Africa relationship has disappointed both sides. Republican and Democratic US presidents alike have treated the continent with benign neglect, if not with outright contempt, and the United States has duly fallen behind China, India, and France in terms of overall trade with Africa.


Although Barack Obama, America’s first black president, launched a modest “Power Africa” initiative, his four trips there are mostly remembered for his lectures on “good governance.” 

And this from an administration that turned a blind eye to autocrats in countries hosting US military bases, and then joined forces with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in a misguided and costly military intervention in Libya. 

The consequences for the Sahel and beyond have been catastrophic.

Then came Donald Trump, who did not even consider Africa a destination worth visiting

His racist insults about the continent (“shithole countries”) confirmed his disdain, and will not soon be forgotten or forgiven. 

True, Trump’s administration did acknowledge that lasting stability, prosperity, independence, and security in Africa are in America’s national interest. 

But his pledges to advance trade and commercial ties, and to counter Islamic terrorism, did not materialize. 

Instead, the administration weaponized trade policy by suspending duty-free status for some African exports under the US African Growth and Opportunity Act, in retaliation against Rwanda for its efforts to protect its garment industry.

Now, the arrival of President Joe Biden’s administration provides an opportunity to rekindle the US-Africa relationship. 

Typically, articulating an Africa strategy is not a top priority for new American presidents. 

In Biden’s case, he has taken office at a time of heightened global fears about COVID-19, ongoing economic uncertainty, and deep geopolitical division. 

And for its part, Africa is suffering its worst economic performance in a generation, setting the stage for persistent misery, social unrest, and violent conflict in the future.

Nonetheless, the sheer depth of these problems makes this a perfect time for bold initiatives. 

To be sure, Africa – a dynamic region with great resilience, high aspirations, abundant resources, unbounded creativity, and plenty of ideas – should not rely on any foreign power for its political and economic future. 

The fuse of prosperity and peace must be lit from within. 

But, because trade is the main engine of growth and socioeconomic development for African economies (all of which are small and open), and because the US remains the world’s dominant economic player, Africans are looking to the Biden administration to propose a new course.

To that end, the US can reap major political and economic benefits by acting symbolically, strategically, and operationally. 

For starters, the Biden administration can set the tone for a new partnership with several costless overtures. 

Official statements acknowledging Africa’s enormous contribution to human civilization and the urgent need for it to reclaim a prominent role in world affairs would convey respect and help change perceptions. 

And a US commitment to support permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council for the African Union, and to co-finance peacekeeping missions in the Sahelian region and the Lake Chad Basin would cement this.




At the strategic level, the US should offer a new vision for its approach to the continent, shifting from a focus on geopolitical stakes and countering China, which led to disastrous results during the Cold War, to a true partnership based on mutually beneficial business relationships and delivering visible results. 

That means going beyond meager bilateral projects that aim only to plant an American flag. 

For example, the US should take a leadership role in ensuring that COVID-19 vaccines quickly make their way to Africa. This would be consistent with Biden’s priorities and send a strong signal that the era of benign neglect is over.

For too long, the US has been content to support any African dictator who offers cooperation in the fight against terrorism (or secure access to mineral extraction), on the grounds that doing so is necessary to prevent chaos. 

But this policy has failed: the US has ended up with dictators and chaos at the same time. 

Without falling into the self-righteous trap of pursuing regime change, the Biden administration should treat bad African leaders the way the US treated communist autocrats in Eastern Europe. Moral clarity is of the essence.

Finally, at the operational level, renewed pragmatism toward Africa could deliver quick and valuable wins. 

The first task should be to de-politicize the macroeconomic policies promoted by international institutions and development banks where the US dominates. 

African monetary policies should be open to domestic intellectual and policy debates, just as they are in other parts of the world. 

Similarly, African strategies for fiscal policy, financing, and debt management should reflect current knowledge, not old static accounting orthodoxies.

With these considerations in mind, a first bold objective for the Biden administration would be to set a target date for ending US foreign aid to Africa, with the goal of replacing the current politicized bilateral aid instruments with new trade finance and facilitation programs.

Second, America could improve its standing in Africa by recognizing that its distortionary agricultural subsidies negatively affect global prices for many commodities, thereby lowering growth rates in Africa. 

By reforming its own agricultural financing, the US could trigger similar positive policy changes across OECD countries, as well as encourage African industrialization – all of which would benefit both America and Africa.

Third, engagement by the US with China, the European Union, Japan, India, and public and private financiers would help to de-risk investment in Africa and facilitate financing for productive infrastructure. 

By targeting sectors where African countries have a comparative advantage (agroindustry, light manufacturing, and cultural and creative industries), and by supporting the construction of special economic zones and industrial parks, the US can help stimulate global demand, generate growth, and create employment in Africa and advanced economies alike. 

Finally, collaborating with private investors to build first-rate educational and cultural institutions in Africa would strengthen America’s soft power there. 

The best response to China’s export of Confucius Institutes is not Sinophobic rhetoric, but concrete action to foster learning and knowledge accumulation in Africa.

The new US administration cannot rely on symbolism alone. Strategically and operationally, too, a new relationship with Africa requires a cooperative framework that embodies the principles of dignity and mutual respect.




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SouthAfrica’s tourist arrivals down by 88.1% y-o-y in November. @NKCAfrica
Africa


Tourist numbers are expected to remain weak until a more widespread global vaccination process has occurred.

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Nihilism and Negritude Ways of Living in Africa Harvard_Press @CelestinMonga
Africa


“[This book] is like a kaleidoscope, where the mobile fragments of colored glass are the many, often rare, pieces of African reality, sensibility, and imagination.”—Robert Maggiori, Libération

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Ethio telecom performance July 1 to December 31 2020. @WillisOwiti
Africa




Revenue grew by 12.3% to US$650mn.

-Mobile voice accounted for 49%

-Data and internet 26%

-International business 10.3%

-Value Added Services 11%

-Other sources 3.4%.

Total subscribers increased by 11.2% to reach 50.7mn.


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Kenya Economy Slumps Into Recession on Third Quarter Contraction @economics @herbling @HelenNyambura
Kenyan Economy



Kenya slid into a recession for the first time after the economy contracted for a second straight quarter as measures introduced by the East African state to slow the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic continued to hurt output.

Gross domestic product fell 1.1% during the quarter July through September, compared with a year earlier, after shrinking a revised 5.5% in the previous three months, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday by email. 

The outcome was in line with the median of three economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Before the decline in the second quarter, sub-Saharan Africa’s third-biggest economy last contracted in 2008, when post-election violence led to a 1.6% drop in output, according to the statistics office.

Kenya confirmed its first coronavirus infection in mid-March and later imposed a partial lockdown. 

Shutdowns in key markets such as the European Union and the U.K. as well as global travel restrictions hit the country’s main foreign-income earners, including tourism and exports of tea, flowers, fruit and vegetables.

Highlights:


Agriculture, which makes up a third of GDP, continued to buoy the region’s biggest economy and grew by 6.3%, compared with 7.3% expansion in the April to June period. 

That was helped by tea production, which increased 14% in the quarter compared with a year earlier, thanks to favorable weather. Kenya is the world’s biggest exporter of the black variety.

Education and accommodation and food services, which suffered the most during the nation’s lockdown, contracted by 42% and 58%. They contracted 56% and 83% respectively in the second quarter.

The World Bank sees Kenya’s economy rebounding to growth of 6.9% in 2021, from an estimated 1% contraction last year, according to the lender’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.


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The Spinning Top The real challenge is the Economic Emergency.
Africa




The real challenge is the Economic Emergency.

The latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa projects economic activity in the region to decline by 3.0% in 2020 and recover by 3.1% in 2021. @IMFNews

The IMF is so bright eyed and bushy tailed and I want some of whatever Pills they are popping.


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97% of surveyed hotels now open from 35% in April Avrg. bed occupancy 26% in Dec from 11% in April @MihrThakar
Tourism, Travel & Transport



In 2020:

Goods exports +3.3%

Goods imports -12.5%

Remittances +10.7%

Private sector credit +8.4%

Banks NPL ratio 14.1% in Dec from 13.6% in Oct; 54.2% loans restructured

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KenGen Kenya reports FY Earnings PAT 2020 +133.1%
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied



Par Value:                  2.50/-

Closing Price:           4.68

Total Shares Issued:          6243873667.00

Market Capitalization:        29,221,328,762

EPS:              2.79 

PE:              1.677

  

Full Year Results through 30th June 2020

FY Total Revenue 44.110491b versus 45.965646b

FY Electricity Revenue 33.783190b versus 29.796983b

FY Steam Revenue 5.549684b versus 5.871921b

FY Fuel Charge 4.155499b versus 10.111516b

FY Revenue less reimbursable expenses 39.822201b versus 35.774084b

FY Other Gains net 6.382970b versus 3.179185b

FY Operating Income 46.677697b versus 39.572091b

Expenses 

FY Depreciation and Amortization [12.029561b] versus [10.360330b]

FY Employee Expenses [7.082496b] versus [6.800376b]

FY Steam Costs [3.160582b] versus [3.357126b]

FY Plant Operation and maintenance expenses [1.503237b] versus [1.512278b]

FY Other Expenses [2.298971b] versus [2.257402b]

FY Operating Profit 20.602850b versus 15.284579b

FY Finance Income 1.431118b versus 1.423062b

FY Finance Costs [8.244181b] versus [5.053924b]

FY Profit before Income Tax 13.789787b versus 11.653717b +18.3%

FY Profit for the Year 18.377093b versus 7.884335b +133.1%

FY EPS 2.79 versus 1.20

FY Dividend 0.30 versus 0.25 +20%

Cash and Bank Balances 5.315991b versus 9.175330b

Commentary 

KenGen recorded a 13.4% growth in electricity revenue

Conclusions

Well Those were muscular Earnings

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Car & General (Kenya) Ltd. reports FY 2020 Loss after Tax [20.865m]
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services



Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           24.00

Total Shares Issued:          40103308.00

Market Capitalization:        962,479,392

EPS:             -0.52

PE:                 4.486

  

Franchise holder for leading automotive and engineering products.

FY Earnings through 30th September 2020 versus 30th September 2019

FY Revenue 87.149m versus 53.067m

FY Other Income 44.749m versus 30.525m

[Loss] Gain in Fair Value of Investment Properties [50.452m] versus 66.364m

Impairment Provision for Financial Assets [80.246m] versus [3.047m]

FY Administrative Expenses [103.638m] versus [119.908m]

FY [loss] before EBITDA [102.438m] versus 27.001m

FY Finance Costs [29.101m] versus [2.048m]

FY Depreciation of Right of Use Asset [24.344m] 

FY [Loss] Profit before Taxation [170.191m] versus 11.666m

FY Taxation Credit 149.506m versus [7.382m]

FY [Loss] Profit for the Year [20.865m] versus 4.284m

Commentary 

Q3 was extremely challenging with sales dropping as much as 70% in certain markets.

Uganda and TZ 40% of Group sales.

Forex Losses of 82m

Watu Credit

Final Dividend of 0.80 per share 

Conclusions

Big Dividend Pay Out in the context of the Earnings. 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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