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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 12th of November 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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Mirrors On The Ceiling
World Of Finance


And she said "We are all just prisoners here, of our own device"

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Most people actually do know what's coming, more or less. Just not when it's coming. Like at all. @coloradotravis
World Of Finance


And then the latter leads to a lot of confusion about the former and we get all mixed up about things.

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AND A REGIME CHANGE IS UNDERWAY There is no training – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. @ptj_official
World Of Finance

There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.

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Yesterday's auction of 30-year Treasuries was, by one measure, the weakest since August 2011. @lisaabramowicz1
World Of Finance



“I’ve been in the market about 30 years now and this is one of the scarier ones I’ve seen. It highlights that the back end of the curve is wildly mispriced."

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Black swan, golden sunrise @Astrid_Tontson
World Of Finance

For the denouement to happen we need to return to March 2020

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The Pandemic Is a Portal
Misc.


A ‘’virulent plague that travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire’’

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Buenos Aires. what a city! Following dreams ever since. @NicholasCoghlan
Misc.

n 1978, aged 23, for no better reasons than Julie Covington singing "Don't cry for me, Argentina" plus a reading of Chatwin's "In Patagonia," left rainy UK for glamorous Buenos Aires. A dark time for that country, but what a city! Following dreams ever since.

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Roberto Bolaño The Savage Detectives |
Misc.

Or maybe we were silent for a while, listening to the sound the elevator made, as if we were in a dark room or lost in the country at night, just listening to the sound of horses

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We are heating Europe, they are still threatening us that they will close the border. And if we shut off natural gas there? Lukashenko said.
Law & Politics

"We are heating Europe, they are still threatening us that they will close the border. And if we shut off natural gas there? Therefore, I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians and other headless people think before speaking," Lukashenko said.

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The steadily increasing risk of war between China and India @NikkeiAsia @Chellaney
Law & Politics


The spotlight on the growing Chinese military threat against Taiwan has helped obscure China's more serious military confrontation with India along an extended, mountainous frontier.
Although the intensifying multiple military standoffs between nuclear-armed titans China and India have grabbed few headlines, the risk of renewed border skirmishing, if not outright war, is increasing. 

Indeed, the Pentagon's newly released annual report on China says the Chinese military is bracing for a two-front war scenario -- "any escalation of border tensions with India, as well as preparing to support a Taiwan contingency."
A reminder of the looming risks is China's latest provocation -- the enactment of a Land Borders Law -- which appears primarily aimed at advancing its territorial revisionism in the Himalayas.
The law effectively negates the possibility of peacefully resolving its territorial disputes with India. 

Instead of mutually settled borders, the law enables unilaterally imposed borders.
The ongoing military standoffs began more than 18 months ago when a shocked India discovered that China had stealthily encroached on several key border areas in the northernmost Indian territory of Ladakh. 

The discovery led to the first deadly Chinese-Indian military clashes since 1975, including China's first combat deaths in decades.
Unlike China's expansionism elsewhere, including swallowing Hong Kong and redrawing maritime frontiers in the South China Sea without firing a shot, its Himalayan aggression has run into armed resistance. 

India has not only more than matched Chinese military deployments, but in recent days, it test-fired a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile as a warning shot to China and conducted daring border paratrooper exercises simulating territory capture behind enemy lines.
The deepening military stalemate at the Himalayan border led Beijing to enact its new Land Borders Law, which gives its imprimatur to assertive actions along land frontiers. 

Those actions emulate China's aggressive moves in the East and South China Seas, including an intensifying campaign against the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands, claimed by Beijing as the Diaoyu, through aerial and maritime incursions.
The Land Borders Law, which India's foreign ministry slammed as a "unilateral move," extends to transboundary river waters. 

According to Chinese state media, the law upholds China's "legitimate rights and interests" over the Tibet-originating transboundary rivers like the Brahmaputra and Mekong.
The law's assertion of full sovereignty over cross-border waters means that China has a declared right to divert as much of the shared waters as it wishes, regardless of downstream impacts. 

Nikkei Asia has reported in an online article, "China law tightens land borders amid regional tensions," that Beijing is toying with the idea of limiting the volume of cross-border water flows to India during conflicts, by citing the "protection and reasonable use" stipulation of its Land Borders Law.
In fact, underscoring its readiness to weaponize even the sharing of water data on upstream river flows, China in 2017 inexplicably refused to supply hydrological data to India in violation of the terms of two bilateral agreements. 

The one-year data denial resulted in preventable deaths as the monsoon-swollen Brahmaputra overran its banks, leaving a major trail of destruction, especially in India's Assam state.

The Land Borders Law is just the latest example of how an increasingly aggressive China is using domestic law to underpin its expansionism. 

Beijing, for example, used a new national security law to crush Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement and bring the city into political lockstep with the Chinese Communist Party in breach of China's United Nations-registered treaty with Britain.

The Land Borders Law came just months after China's new Coast Guard Law took effect. 

Several countries, including Japan, the United States, the Philippines and Vietnam, have raised concerns about the Coast Guard Law, which clearly violates the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
But just as the Coast Guard Law is aimed at accelerating China's maritime militarization, the Land Borders Law will speed up its militarization of the Himalayas. 

And just as the Coast Guard Law authorizes the use of lethal force in disputed waters claimed by China, the land law permits the use of force in defending and furthering Chinese claims to contested lands.
Simply put, Beijing enacts domestic law to violate international law. China's success in unraveling Hong Kong's autonomy through a national security law could inspire it to enact a Taiwan-specific legislation or activate its 2005 Anti-Secession Law against that island democracy.
By employing domestic law as a cover for unlawful actions, China illustrates that international law is powerless against the powerful, especially scofflaw states. 

But China's expansionism often breaches international law with the aim, ironically, of asserting its own claims and rights under international law.
Examples include China's human-made militarized islands in the South China Sea and its current militarized village-building spree in disputed Himalayan borderlands in order to extend or consolidate its control over strategically important areas that India, Bhutan and Nepal maintain fall within their national boundaries.
Effective control is the sine qua non of a strong territorial claim in international law. 

Armed patrols do not prove effective control, but civilian settlements do. 

So, the Chinese Communist Party is callously uprooting Tibetan nomads and forcing them to settle in its artificial new Himalayan border villages, where ethnic Han Chinese party members serve as resident overseers.
Whether China can legitimize unlawful actions retroactively in this manner is a moot point. 

But lawfare, or the misuse and abuse of law for political and military ends, is a key component of China's asymmetrical or hybrid warfare.
This blends conventional and irregular tactics with incremental territorial encroachment -- salami-slicing -- psychological manipulation, disinformation and coercive diplomacy to help advance its expansionism.

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@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 9 November 2021
Misc.


During the week 1 to 7 November 2021, a slight upward trend (1% increase) in new weekly cases was observed, with over 3.1 million new cases reported. 

Over 48 000 new deaths were reported, a 4% decrease from the previous week. 

Conclusions

a 3 week Up swing after a sequence of 9 week decline 

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If you step back at the global level, clearly the declines that the world was seeing that began in late August-early September for COVID-19 infections have essentially stopped, and we’re starting to see flattening & actual reversals. @IHME_UW
Misc.



If you step back at the global level, clearly the declines that the world was seeing that began in late August-early September for COVID-19 infections and then by mid-Sept. for cases and deaths have essentially stopped, and we’re starting to see flattening & actual reversals.


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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 54 countries. @ReutersGraphics
Misc.

18 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

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A key factor here has been England’s booster rollout. @jburnmurdoch
Misc.


Antibody levels in the oldest groups (vaccinated the earliest) had been slowly eroding as the months passed, but in the last 5 weeks they have shot back up as third doses have gone into arms 

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What of the rest of Europe? @jburnmurdoch
Misc.


No country is avoiding the winter wave, with cases climbing right across western Europe, and acute metrics following suit. Several now exceed UK’s peak cases & ICU patients, and may soon exceed on deaths.

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Looking further east, many countries’ waves began earlier and now look to be subsiding, but they’re subsiding from staggeringly high levels @jburnmurdoch
Misc.

Looking further east, many countries’ waves began earlier and now look to be subsiding, but they’re subsiding from staggeringly high levels, with several nations setting new records for deaths almost two years into the pandemic.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1439
Dollar Index 95.20
Japan Yen 114.25
Swiss Franc 0.9224
Pound 1.3363
Aussie 0.7287
India Rupee 74.3925
South Korea Won 1180.295
Brazil Real 5.3992
Egypt Pound 15.7198
South Africa Rand 15.2908

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World’s Record Food Bill Is Hitting Poorer Countries Hardest Cost of importing food to rise 14% to $1.75 trillion this year @markets
Commodities


The world’s food-import bill is set to jump even more than expected to a record this year, increasing the threat of hunger, especially in the poorest nations.
Higher shipping rates and prices of foodstuffs from grains to vegetables are likely to drive the cost of importing food up by 14% to $1.75 trillion, the United Nations said. 

It also warned of higher bills as farm inputs get more expensive. 

Food prices have climbed to the highest in a decade, further pressuring household budgets strained by the pandemic and rising energy bills. 

A particular worry is that food-import costs in poor countries are climbing faster than those in developed economies, something that’s becoming an increasing problem in regions that are reliant on shipping in supplies.

Grain prices rallied in the past year as bad weather curbed harvests, freight rates rose and labor shortages hurt supply chains. 

That’s happened as global hunger hit a multiyear high, while an energy crunch also had a knock-on effect of raising fertilizer prices, giving farmers another headache. 

“Food prices will inevitably rise with higher production costs, and do so without significant delays,” the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report on Thursday.
Some takeaways from the report:
Food-import bills are expected to rise 11% this year for developed countries and almost 20% in developing regions.
The global figure was higher than projected in June and comes as some countries bought more than forecast in the second and third quarters.
The increased import bills won’t necessarily equate to more food inflows for vulnerable countries, due to higher food and freight costs.
Staple foodstuffs are driving import costs in developing economies, while developed countries account for much of the growth in high-value products such as fish and drinks.

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Global food markets are but the perturbation of a butterflys's wing away from a serious tipping point. @csmonitor By Aly-Khan Satchu, September 6, 2010
Commodities


Given the fragility of the food markets, Maputo might well be a shot across the bows of many regimes, who have yet to secure access to sufficient food at sufficiently low prices for their people.
Failure to execute on this front, surely imperils many.

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In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.
Misc.

Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.



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WHO regional overviews Epidemiological week 1-7 November 2021 African Region
Africa


After a decreasing trend since July 2021, case incidence rates in the African Region have begun to plateau, with over 20 000 new cases reported this week. 

Over 500 new deaths were reported, a 27% decrease as compared to the previous week. 

However, substantial increases (>15%) in new cases were reported in a third of the countries in the region (15/49; 31%). 

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 77 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa

All countries are currently below the peak of their infection curve.

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February 1st 2021 The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
Africa



“Everybody else is going to start wanting more freedom within the constitution. It’s impossible for the state to manage a guerrilla war up there and at the same time manage to control the rest of the country. If he put more resources into Tigray he’s going to lose more control of the other regions.''

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19-JUL-2021 :: In the Horn of Africa the Prime Minister of Ethiopia who cloaked his messianic zeal in the language of Mandela 1994 is unlikely to last more than twelve months.
Africa

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
https://bit.ly/3Bk45Gj

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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@SPGlobalRatings lowers #Ethiopia’s sovereign credit rating to CCC amid heightened political risk. @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa

Unlike the  @IMFnews which halts projections due to uncertainty, S&P projects Ethiopia GDP growth in 2022 at 4% (2023: 5%). 

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November 8, 2020 Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance
Africa

Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance 

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Ethiopia’s growth forecast for FY2021 remains unchanged at 2.0 percent, with growth in FY2022 facing headwinds from the slow pace of vaccination, a possible pickup in COVID-19 infections, and the Tigray conflict. @IMFNews @IMFAfrica
Africa

An improved external environment will support key exports and foreign direct investment and remittance inflows.
The ongoing conflict has increased the uncertainty around the country’s growth outlook.

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South Africa's budget gap is set to narrow faster than previously expected @markets
Africa



With the economy 11% bigger after a statistics agency review, and tax and mineral royalty revenue set to beat forecasts, the budget deficit will narrow faster than what was expected in the February budget. 

Economists in a Bloomberg survey predict a shortfall of 7.1% of GDP in the fiscal year through March 2022, compared with the National Treasury’s estimate of 9.3% of GDP

The changes to the way GDP is calculated will also result in significantly lower debt ratios. 

Still, levels will continue to rise, peaking at 79.2% of GDP in the 2027 fiscal year, according to the median of seven economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey. 

That compares with the Treasury’s projection that it would stabilize at 88.9% of GDP a year earlier. 

The upside surprise in revenue has allowed the Treasury to reduce the amount of debt on sale at its weekly auctions twice since March. 

Further advances in collections could see it slash borrowing requirements that would help contain the cost of servicing the country’s loans, the fastest growing expenditure line item since 2011. 

With a monthly welfare payment of 350 rand ($23) -- reintroduced in the wake of deadly riots, looting and arson in July -- set to end in March, the government is under pressure to expand the social-support measures offered to the poor and marginalized.

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The government of #Tanzania has officially restarted negotiations with foreign energy companies about a $30bn LNG project. @OEAfrica
Africa

President Samia Suluhu Hassan and her Energy Minister January Makamba are bullish about the country becoming an LNG exporter by the end of this decade.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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