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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 26th of November 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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B.1.1.529 seems to have gone from 0.1% to 50% in just a couple of weeks, when it took Delta several months to achieve that. @TWenseleers
Misc.



"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett


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23-AUG-2021 :: ZigZag Therefore, I am clearing the decks and just holding
Misc.


$TNX 20%
Ultras (#UB_F) 50% 

$NFLX 10%
Short ZAR 10% 

Cash 10%

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AND A REGIME CHANGE IS UNDERWAY] There is no training – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. @ptj_official
World Of Finance


There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign.



Conclusions



Interesting the Infection happened in the bond and rate markets and has now spilled over into FX 

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The Music has been playing for Eternity and its about to stop
World Of Finance

And below captioned is my favourite musical snippet of recent times 

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Robert Frank Children with Sparklers in Provincetown Massachusetts, 1958 @deryainciderya
Misc.


"Time is a flat circle. Everything we have done or will do we will do over and over and over again- forever."

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Jamie Dimon's Other Comment About China Was No Joke @bopinion
Law & Politics


JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief executive officer this week quipped that his bank would be around longer than China’s Communist Party, and soon regretted the error. 

But another comment he made at the same event is far more incisive and deserves to be taken seriously.
Speaking at the Boston College Chief Executives Club on Tuesday, Jamie Dimon noted that he doesn’t know anyone who “thinks that something’s gonna go wrong in Taiwan.” 

Wrong in this context means an attack by Beijing against the democratically run island that it claims as its own. 

A Chinese intervention, he warned, “could be their Vietnam.”
Dimon is right. Few other Western executives have dared speak of one very likely outcome in a conflict across the Taiwan Strait: A protracted ground war that could last for decades, just like the U.S. misadventure in Vietnam.
Politicians, military strategists and academics have war-gamed numerous possible scenarios should Beijing decide to take military action. 

Some posit that China would strike a quick and decisive victory; others are adamant that Taiwan’s defenses — backed by support from like-minded nations such as the U.S., Japan and Australia — would repel an advance.
Yet even if its navy, air force and missile battalions manage to overpower the combined might of some of the world’s most powerful militaries, China’s People’s Liberation Army would still need to get boots on the ground in Taiwan, and keep them there

The long, thin island — 245 miles by 90 miles — is more than 100 miles off mainland China. It’s also surrounded by rough seas and is mostly mountainous.
Additionally, the majority of its roughly 9 million adult males have done at least some form of military service, and the will of the local populace to fight against Chinese aggression is growing as local identity flourishes. 

However many of China’s roughly 2 million military personnel actually land on Taiwan, there’s no doubt casualties will climb as an attempted occupation drags on.
“Body bags in any country have an adverse effect at one point, particularly when the objective may be irrelevant,” Dimon said in Boston.
All concerned parties know that an actual strike on Taiwan would be no joke. That part of Dimon’s remarks was cold, hard truth.

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The Dark Forest which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.” @nfergus
Misc.

First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” 
Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” 
Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. 
In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:
The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... 
The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. 
If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — 
There’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. 
In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.
This is intergalactic Darwinism.

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China's alarming actions do not match its rhetoric about promoting peace and prosperity in the region, Australia's defence minister said on Friday after a Chinese navy ship was tracked sailing through the country's exclusive economic zone @Reuters
Law & Politics

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the ship - the second of its type monitored off the Australian coast in as many months - was travelling legally.
"But don't think for a second that we weren't keeping our eye on them, as they were seeking to keep an eye on us," Morrison told reporters in Adelaide.
"What it demonstrates is now no one can be complacent about the situation in the Indo-Pacific."

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Solomon Islands PM blames foreign powers for unrest as protests spread @Reuters
Law & Politics

Foreign countries are responsible for stoking unrest that has led to violent protests in the Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare said on Friday, as the small South Pacific island country struggles to quell the unrest.
Sogavare declared a 36-hour lockdown in the country's capital, Honiara, on Wednesday as authorities struggled to prevent protestors burning buildings and widespread looting.
Many of protestors have come from the most populous province Malaita, where many feel overlooked by the government in the wake of its opposition to the Solomon Island's 2019 decision to end diplomatic ties with Taiwan and establish formal links with China.
Sogavare said the anger has been stoked by unnamed foreign countries.
"I feel sorry for my people in Malaita because they are fed with false and deliberate lies about the switch," Sogavare told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
"These very countries that are now influencing Malaita are the countries that don't want ties with the People's Republic of China, and they are discouraging Solomon Islands to enter into diplomatic relations and to comply with international law and the United Nations resolution."
Sogavare declined to name the countries, as protests continuied to grip the Solomon Islands.
Solomon Island resident Transform Aqorau said more than a hundred people were on Friday looting shops and there was no resistance from police.
"The scenes here are really chaotic. It is like a war zone,” Aqorau told Reuters by telephone.
"There is no public transport and it is a struggle with the heat and the smoke. Buildings are still burning."
Sogavare's comments came as Australian police officers arrived in the Solomon Islands.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Thursday said he accepted a requested from Sogavare for help and Canberra would deploy just over 100 personnel to aid Solomon Islands' authorities in guarding critical infrastructure.

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.@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 23 November 2021
Misc.


Globally, the numbers of weekly COVID-19 cases and deaths have increased for more than a month

During the week of 15-21 November 2021, nearly 3.6 million confirmed new cases and over 51 000 deaths were reported, reflecting a 6% increase for cases and deaths as compared to the previous week. 

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Time is a flat circle. Everything we have done or will do we will do over and over and over again- forever.
Misc.

In 1720 Marseille allowed a ship from plague-ridden Cyprus into port, under pressure from merchants who wanted the goods and didn’t want to wait for the usual quarantine. More than half the population of Marseille died in the next two years

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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 59 countries. @ReutersGraphics
Misc.

18 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

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The B.1.1.529 variant was first spotted in Botswana and six cases have been found in South Africa @guardian
Misc.


Only 10 cases in three countries have been confirmed by genomic sequencing, but the variant has sparked serious concern among some researchers because a number of the mutations may help the virus evade immunity.
The B.1.1.529 variant has 32 mutations in the spike protein, the part of the virus that most vaccines use to prime the immune system against Covid. 

Mutations in the spike protein can affect the virus’s ability to infect cells and spread, but also make it harder for immune cells to attack the pathogen.
The variant was first spotted in Botswana, where three cases have now been sequenced. Six more have been confirmed in South Africa, and one in Hong Kong in a traveller returning from South Africa.
Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, posted details of the new variant on a genome-sharing website, noting that the “incredibly high amount of spike mutations suggest this could be of real concern”.
In a series of tweets, Peacock said it “very, very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile”, but added that it may turn out to be an “odd cluster” that is not very transmissible. “I hope that’s the case,” he wrote.
The first cases of the variant were collected in Botswana on 11 November, and the earliest in South Africa was recorded three days later. 

The case found in Hong Kong was a 36-year-old man who had a negative PCR test before flying from Hong Kong to South Africa, where he stayed from 22 October to 11 November. 

He tested negative on his return to Hong Kong, but tested positive on 13 November while in quarantine.

Some virologists in South Africa are already concerned, particularly given the recent rise in cases in Gauteng, an urban area containing Pretoria and Johannesburg, where B.1.1.529 cases have been detected.

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variant associated with Southern Africa with very long branch length and really awful Spike mutation profile including RBD - K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H @PeacockFlu
Misc.



Just spotted: very small cluster of variant associated with Southern Africa with very long branch length and really awful Spike mutation profile including RBD - K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H


Full Spike profile: A67V, Δ69-70, T95I, G142D/Δ143-145, Δ211/L212I, ins214EPE, G339D, S371L, S373P, S375F, K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H, T547K, D614G, H655Y, N679K, P681H, N764K, D796Y, N856K, Q954H, N969K, L981F

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Worth emphasising this is at super low numbers right now in a region of Africa that is fairly well sampled, however it very very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile @PeacockFlu
Misc.

Worth emphasising this is at super low numbers right now in a region of Africa that is fairly well sampled, however it very very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile (would take a guess that this would be worse antigenically than nearly anything else about) @PeacockFlu

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A final observation - this variant contains not one, but two furin cleavage site mutations - P681H combined with N679K this is the first time I've seen two of these mutations in a single variant... @PeacockFlu
Misc.

A final observation - this variant contains not one, but two furin cleavage site mutations - P681H (seen in Alpha, Mu, some Gamma, B.1.1.318) combined with N679K (seen in C.1.2 amongst others) - this is the first time I've seen two of these mutations in a single variant...@PeacockFlu

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1220
Dollar Index 96.63
Japan Yen 114.51
Swiss Franc 0.9309
Pound 1.3297
Aussie 0.7131
India Rupee 74.6845
South Korea Won 1193.53
Brazil Real 5.567
Egypt Pound 15.72
South Africa Rand 16.16825

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WHO regional overviews Epidemiological week 15-21 November 2021 African Region .@WHO
Africa


Following a decline since late June 2021, the case incidence in the African Region appears to have stabilized in the past two weeks, with over 13 000 new cases reported during the week of 15-21 November. 

However, 14 of the 49 countries in the Region (29%) reported an increase of >10% in new cases as compared to the previous week

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 92 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa

All countries are currently below the peak of their infection curve.



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A year ago, the Ethiopian government called it a mere law enforcement operation that would be finished within weeks. Now it is an existential war.
Africa

The falcon cannot hear the falconer
https://bit.ly/3Bk45Gj

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

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THREAD 1/7: Is #AbiyAhmed preparing to establish a «legitimate #Ethiopia government in exile? @KjetilTronvoll
Africa

The PM left the capital ostensibly to lead the war on #TDF #Tigray & #OLA #Oromo from the frontlines. Whether he is on the frontlines or in hiding, no one knows.

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Let's meet at the war front, he wrote The time has come to lead the country with sacrifice.@Reuters
Africa

November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
https://j.mp/35ekJJr

Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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Egypt's economy grew by 9.8% in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2021-22 that began in July, compared with 0.7% in the same period last year, Minister of Planning and Economic Development Hala al-Saeed said
Africa

Egypt expects a GDP growth of 5.5-5.7% in FY 2021-22 that ends in June, she added.
Her remarks were made during a cabinet session chaired by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, during which she reviewed the initial indicators of the country’s economic performance in the first quarter.
The restaurant and hotel sector recorded the highest quarterly growth rate of about 181.8 percent, reflecting the remarkable recovery from the coronavirus repercussions.
The telecommunications, manufacturing and construction sectors registered a growth rate of 16.3%, about 15.2%, and 10.5%, respectively.

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Musique populaire de la révolution, Nino Tosali Té (What haven't we tried?). 'What use are the studies we have done? they sing, 'We're selling kola nuts and cigarettes in the street to survive'. @Africa_Conf
Africa

More than half a million people listened to the song on their mobile phones within hours of its release. When the song was briefly banned by the state broadcasting companies, it underlined just how remote the political class had become from people's concerns.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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