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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 02nd of December 2021
 
Afternoon
Africa




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@OECD #EconomicOutlook sees recovery continuing but warns of growing imbalances & risks.
World Of Finance


The failure to ensure #vaccination everywhere is proving costly with uncertainty remaining high due to the continued emergence of new #variants. 

Output in most OECD countries has now surpassed where it was in late-2019 and is gradually returning to the path expected before the pandemic

However, lower-income economies, particularly ones where vaccination rates against COVID-19 are still low, are at risk of being left behind.
The Outlook projects a rebound in global economic growth to 5.6% this year and 4.5% in 2022, before settling back to 3.2% in 2023, close to the rates seen prior to the pandemic.
The strong pick-up in activity seen earlier this year is losing momentum in many advanced economies. 

A surge in demand for goods since economies reopened, and the failure of supply to keep pace, have generated bottlenecks in production chains. 

Labour shortages, pandemic-related closures, rising energy and commodity prices, and a scarcity of some key materials are all holding back growth and adding to cost pressures. 

Inflation has increased significantly in some regions, early in this recovery phase. 

A potential sharp slowdown in China, if activity in the property market declined abruptly amid concerns about the financial soundness of some of the largest real estate developers, could also disrupt the global recovery. 

The impact of such a slowdown would spread rapidly to other countries, particularly if it generated uncertainty in global financial markets and added to the current bottlenecks in supply.

Presenting the Economic Outlook alongside Chief Economist Laurence Boone today, OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said:

 “The strong rebound we have seen is now easing and supply bottlenecks, rising inflation, and the continuing impact of the pandemic are clouding the horizon. The risks and uncertainties are large - as is being seen with the emergence of the Omicron variant - aggravating the imbalances and threatening the recovery. Keeping the recovery strong and on track will entail addressing a number of imbalances, but above all it will mean managing the health crisis through better international coordination, improving health systems and massively stepping up vaccination programmes worldwide.”

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29-NOV-2021 :: Regime Change
World Of Finance


The arrival of #Omicron brought ‘’Regime Change’’ to the markets on Friday.
For some time I have been saying
A REGIME CHANGE IS UNDERWAY [in the markets]
There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. Paul Tudor-Jones
I have been warning
The Music has been playing for Eternity and its about to stop
https://bit.ly/2Wzp4Fg
And below captioned is my favourite musical snippet of recent times
Just played #laritournelle with @ESKAonline and some amazing musicians @southbankcentre paying tribute to the legendary #tonyallen @thenitinsawhney 

https://twitter.com/thenitinsawhney/status/1459652573812695040? s=20
And Friday saw some seriously dramatic moves
Concern about the latest Covid variant on Friday drove 10-year Treasury yields to their biggest one-day drop since the early months of the pandemic.

BRENT front-month futures closed down -11.3% on Friday, a percentage price change almost 5 standard deviations away from the mean. It was the 9th largest one-day decline since 1990 @JKempEnergy

The Oil Markets are no doubt looking over their shoulder and remembering the negative prices we witnessed last year.
Mirrors on the ceiling, The Pink champagne on ice
https://bit.ly/3Bk45Gj
Last thing I remember, I was Running for the door

The Stock Market has a long way to fall
Just to put things into perspective: S&P 500 trades at a higher multiple than before the pandemic crash in Mar2020 @Schuldensuehner


Bitcoin tumbles 20% from record highs earlier this month, entering a bear market #BTC @crypto

If after this morning you still think that #BTC is a hedge against world events, or represents "diversification", you must stay out of finance, & take up some other hobby s.a. stamp collecting, bird watching or something less harmful to yourself & others. @nntaleb

They can never beat you if you buy the dips. @nayibbukele

The ‘’Bukeleists’’ are going to be tested
"Money Suppy increases", if they went somewhere, they went to ... Bitcoin. @nntaleb
I’m really concerned about @bankofengland printing money out of thin air. @nayibbukele

And we are back at the bottom of the channel. @Remi_Tetot
https://twitter.com/Remi_Tetot/status/1464234830372249602?s=20

The Signal in the Noise is the Dollar

The Dollar has been on a roll and simply crushing other G10 currencies and creaming EM
EM looks like Trevor Berbick did when he was crushed by Mike Tyson
The Turkish Lira has been leading the downside charge of course
The emerging markets sovereign CDS index has just taken out the year's wide; got to a peak of 470 bps in the initial Covid lockdown in March 2020 (and over 800 bps in the GFC). @bondvigilantes


For a while this Portfolio did not look too clever
23-AUG-2021 :: ZigZag Therefore, I am clearing the decks and just holding
https://bit.ly/2Wzp4Fg
$TNX 20%
Ultras (#UB_F) 50% $NFLX 10%
Short ZAR 10% Cash 10%
The newest iteration is as follows
$TNX 20% reducing to 10% at 1.15-% to 1.25% yield levels
Ultras (#UB_F) 50% scale reduction to 20% at above 203.00 on a price basis
$NFLX 10%
Short ZAR 10%
Cash 10%
Increasing allocation to
Coffee
Natural Gas
Wheat

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I steal into their dreams, he said. ― Roberto Bolaño, 2666
Misc.


"I steal into their most shameful thoughts, I'm in every shiver, every spasm of their souls, I steal into their hearts, I scrutinize their most fundamental beliefs, I scan their irrational impulses, their unspeakable emotions, I sleep in their lungs during the summer and their muscles during the winter, and all of this I do without the least effort, without intending to, without asking or seeking it out, without constraints, driven only by love and devotion.”
― Roberto Bolaño, 2666

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It’s highly likely that China and Russia are coordinated on Taiwan and Ukraine. If there’s an attack on either Taiwan or Ukraine, Russia will invade UKR / China will retake Taiwan to split NATO forces ASBMilitary
Law & Politics


It’s highly likely that China and Russia are coordinated on Taiwan and Ukraine. If there’s an attack on either Taiwan or Ukraine, Russia will invade UKR / China will retake Taiwan to split NATO forces & make it effectively impossible for NATO to counter at half capacity.

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The beauty of fighting an election as the opposition is you’re not running on your record. The peril of incumbency is that you are.
Law & Politics


We’re headed for ballots in France, Brazil, Australia, the Philippines, South Korea and Hungary. Plus there are the U.S. mid-term elections, with President Joe Biden’s popularity dropping and chatter that Donald Trump might run again in 2024. 

Votes are also on the horizon in Turkey, Poland and Malaysia.
For incumbents, the danger is they do the hard slog through crises and get no voter credit for simply keeping things afloat. 

Or the economic sunlight begins right as their replacement comes in and luxuriates in their predecessor’s labor.

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29-NOV-2021 :: Regime Change came to Saddam’s Iraq and for a while regime change was de rigeur.
Law & Politics


Regime Change came to Saddam’s Iraq and for a while regime change was de rigeur.
Muammar Gaddafi was decapitated and the domino effect only stopped when Vladimir Putin decided he was going to put a stop to it and intervened on behalf of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.
Today, the US has exited Afghanistan and the days of a Unipolar World are self evidently behind us. 

We exist in a Tripolar World [US China and Russia] with rapidly emerging Middle Powers. 

I am not discounting Fortress Europe but one senses the Fortress is keener on a more defensive posture unlike the US [notwithstanding its withdrawal from Afghanistan], China and Russia. 

Taiwan and Ukraine are the immediate geopolitical flashpoints.

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29-NOV-2021 :: Regime Change
Law & Politics


The Invisible Microbe has metastasized into Omicron and what we know is that COVID-19 far from becoming less virulent has become more virulent.
B.1.1.529 seems to have gone from 0.1% to 50% in just a couple of weeks, when it took Delta several months to achieve that. #Omicron @TWenseleers


"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

this variant is out-competing others *far* faster than Beta and even Delta did #Omicron @jburnmurdoch

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421?s=20
South Africa was where the #Omicron Variant was first identified and cases have exploded there [admittedly from a low base]
Nation w/ fast COVID19 case/day increase past 2wks @jmlukens 

https://twitter.com/jmlukens/status/1464654513667592195?s=20
South Africa: 1124% France: 191% Spain: 134% Portugal: 115% Switzerland: 111% Ecuador: 105% Czechia: 101% Jordan: 95% Vietnam: 89% Sweden: 88%
Update #COVID19 in GAUTENG • 2,629 new cases today, 7-day avg up 331% week-on-week Case incidence doubling every 3.5 days @rid1tweets


The transmissibility of #Omicron is not in question, it clearly has a spectacular advantage.
The Open Question is whether it is more virulent. If it is less virulent then #Omicron is breaking the Trend of increasing virulence.



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Its very strange to see the proliferation of covid memes on twitter, like the one about omicron being 'mild'. There is absolutely no evidence for this @ArisKatzourakis
Misc.

Its very strange to see the proliferation of covid memes on twitter, like the one about omicron being 'mild'. There is absolutely no evidence for this, we would all hope it would be, but the most sensible prior is that severity is comparable to other VOCs.

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Ridiculous The speed of Omicron is from its sera escape Huge advantage @fitterhappierAJ
Misc.

People come to me saying my assessment is too early while Omicron is spreading at a FANTASTIC rate

And claiming that the variant is mild... something that is determined far after the transmissibility...

Ridiculous The speed of Omicron is from its sera escape Huge advantage

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Global avg cases up 15% to 561,668/day but rate of acceleration on decline since 22-Nov. @jmlukens
Misc.


Daily avg global COVID deaths down 5% to 6,900/day past 2wks, continuing deceleration trend since 19-Nov.  Global avg cases up 15% to 561,668/day but rate of acceleration on decline since 22-Nov.

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COVID-19 infections are still rising in 45 countries. @ReutersGraphics
Misc.


15 countries are still near the peak of their infection curve

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1320
Dollar Index 96.005
Japan Yen 113.15
Swiss Franc 0.9206
Pound 1.3290
Aussie 0.7109
India Rupee 74.9886
South Korea Won 1174.21
Brazil Real 5.6958
Egypt Pound 15.7033
South Africa Rand 15.9536

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In 1998, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told the House of @HouseofCommons There is no way in which one can buck the market. from Monday, August 13, 2018
Emerging Markets


He said, “Don’t get high on your ambitions. You won’t be able make money on the back of this nation. You won’t be able to make this nation kneel.” [They have already made a ton of money and you are kneeling, Mr. President]
And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’ [In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 93 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa

All countries are currently below the peak of their infection curve.

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Positivity Rate - #SouthAfrica #COVID #Omicron : @oli3be
Africa

23-nov 2,1%
24-nov 3,6%
25-nov 6,5%
26-nov 8,0%
27-nov 9,2%
28-nov 9,8%
29-nov 10,7%

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@IChotiner speaks with @tuliodna the director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation, in South Africa, about the emergence of the Omicron variant, and what happens next. @NewYorker
Africa


Little is known about the Omicron variant, which was first detected in Southern Africa, but the nature of its mutations and its seemingly rapid emergence have concerned governments around the world. 

Scientists are currently working to decipher how contagious and how deadly the new variant is—and to what extent it is able to evade any of the protections offered by existing covid-19 vaccines. 

In the meantime, the United States, Britain, and much of Europe have imposed travel bans on Southern Africa; Japan, Israel, and Morocco have banned all foreign visitors.

I recently spoke by phone with Tulio de Oliveira, the director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation at Stellenbosch University, in South Africa. 

De Oliveira and his team were the scientists who first alerted the World Health Organization and other authorities to the new variant. 

During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed how he first learned about the existence of Omicron, how travel bans might impact future international coöperation, and why South Africa’s vaccination rates are lagging behind those of wealthier countries.

When did you first have a sense of the existence of this new variant?

I am the principal investigator and leader of the Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa, which involves seven genomic facilities distributed across the country. 

There was an uptick of cases in Gauteng Province. It was only a small uptick—we had around two hundred cases in the whole country every day. 

But they started growing, and so we met with our network and said we needed to understand why they were growing in the province that had the largest previous wave of infections of Delta. 

That variant was extreme in Gauteng, with somewhere between sixty and eighty per cent of people having gotten infected by covid, according to serology testing.

So on Friday, November 19th, we decided that we needed to increase genomic surveillance in Gauteng. 

And by last Tuesday we heard from one member in our network that a private lab, Lancet Laboratories, had sent in six genomes of a very mutated virus

And, when we looked at the genomes, we got quite worried because they discovered a failure of one of the probes in the P.C.R. testing. 

We went back to all the national data and noticed this failure was increasing in a lot of the P.C.R. tests. 

The P.C.R. tests still worked because they had three probes, but one of them was a failure. 

And then we discussed the six genomes. We were surprised, but we had to make sure it wasn’t just a small chain of transmission. It was widespread. So we had that meeting last Tuesday, and I asked for samples from other labs.

When I noticed that mutated variant on Tuesday, I phoned the director general of health, and he told me he would set up a meeting with me and the minister of health in thirty-six hours. 

So we had thirty-six hours to confirm whether it was real. At the same time I wrote to the World Health Organization, because I am a part of the virus-evolution working group. 

The next morning, we got over a hundred samples from over thirty clinics in Gauteng, and we started genotyping, and we analyzed the mutation of the virus. 

We linked all the data with the P.C.R. dropout, the increase of cases in South Africa and of the positivity rate, and then we began to see it might be a very suddenly emerging variant. 

By Thursday morning we got all the genomes back, and they were all the same variant—around a hundred randomly selected samples, from all over Gauteng, in which the same test failed. 

By then I was confident enough to present the results to our minister of health, and minister of science and innovation, who took the results quite seriously and asked me to talk to the President, Cyril Ramaphosa, at half past 10 a.m., which I did.

What was that conversation like?

He looked at the results and got the comments from the ministers, and by that time the first reports were coming in the media of a potential new variant from Southern Africa. 

So the President gave a simple answer: it is better that we present it in a transparent format, because we have enough evidence. 

And then he asked the minister of health to organize a press briefing at midday. So the time from when we discovered the variant and then confirmed its existence in hundreds of samples across the province to when we presented it to key ministers and talked to the President and went public with it was around thirty-six hours.

What are you trying to learn about the new variant at this point?

Last Wednesday, we spent all this time organizing and analyzing the data, but we also had the first discussion with the W.H.O., and we also discussed the data with three or five of the top evolutionary biologists in the world, 

in the U.K. and in the United States. As we discussed the data on Wednesday, they were all concerned about the number and location of the mutations. 

On Friday, we released hundreds of genomes and data on the other testing, and we had a meeting of the W.H.O. technical working group on virus evolution. 

The group decided to classify it as a “Variant of Concern,” which is very unusual, because we thought it had very concerning mutations and epidemiological data. 

This included data on reinfection, which showed this variant can potentially reinfect people. 

And so on Friday the W.H.O. sent out their press release, and gave a Greek name to the variant, and highlighted that it was a “Variant of Concern” to the world.

Can you talk about the covid situation in South Africa before this?

I would break it into two periods. The situation in the last month was of minimal infections, about two hundred infections per day with a test-positivity rate of less than one per cent, which means that we had more than enough testing. 

Some scientists thought we wouldn’t have a fourth wave because we had such a high level of population immunity. So during that moment in the last month, we thought that’s it. 

We won’t have any more problems with covid. People were relaxed, thinking that we could go back to normal life. Even my lab was sequencing other pathogens and viruses because that is what we do.

So we were very surprised to see a variant emerge in a place with the highest population immunity in the country. 

I think that is one of the things that the world doesn’t realize. Some people tried to blame the variant on vaccine hesitancy. We have a problem with that, although potentially not as big a problem as the United States. 

But people really thought we got out of the woods. Unfortunately, the new variant emerged, and it seems clear that it can reinfect people, which is potentially the last nail in the coffin of herd immunity, which one of your Presidents famously talked about.

You mean the last nail in the coffin of the idea that herd immunity will protect us?

That herd immunity from previous infections will protect us. Herd immunity from vaccination will probably protect us. But herd immunity from letting the virus circulate and infect everyone? That variant may be the last nail in that coffin.

How has the vaccination campaign been going in South Africa, and do you connect the new variant to the slow speed at which many countries in Southern Africa began to get vaccinated?

The first thing to understand is that Johannesburg is what Atlanta is to the United States. It is our biggest travel hub

So we have no idea where this variant is from. It could be from South Africa, or it could be from anywhere else in the world or Africa. What we know is that it got amplified in South Africa.

I think it did not help at all South Africa or Africa to have such late access to the vaccines. It was only around May, June, and July that we started to have enough vaccines for the population. And this is in South Africa. 

In Mozambique, they are still at around ten per cent of full vaccination and they have a real supply problem. 

We also had a massive supply problem until we gave up depending on covax from the W.H.O. and started procuring them independently. 

So they arrived far too late, followed by the third wave of infections. We have about twenty-five per cent of the population fully vaccinated, and that number has increased a lot. 

But, again, in countries like Botswana, they paid almost double the price for Moderna vaccines they have not yet received. So, in general, Africa got in the back of the queue of the vaccine.

So, I would be very reluctant to blame the problem on vaccine hesitancy, because that’s everywhere in the world. And I personally am very upset with the events of these last two days. 

The U.K., after praising us for discovering the variant, then put out this absolutely stupid travel ban, and it has hoarded vaccines for the last year. It’s trying to put the blame on vaccine hesitancy. 

It’s looking for a reason to fault Africa. And we are honestly tired of this—after not having access to vaccines, having to pay more expensive prices, having to get in the back of the queue, and still doing some of the best science on covid in the world, because not only did we identify this variant, but we identified the Beta. 

We also helped the U.K. to identify the Alpha, and have been transparent with the results. 

And each time it seemed that the world wants to find fault with Africa and doesn’t recognize the absolute lack of support. Sorry. I get quite cross about that.

You described your government wanting to share this information with the world. And I know one argument people make against travel bans is that if countries know that they’re going to happen, they’ll be more reluctant to share information.

Yes. I cannot see how other developing countries would share information as we shared information given what’s happened with the backlash against South Africa. I cannot imagine it.

What are you most interested in learning about the new variant now?

At the moment, the most crucial question that we have to answer is: Do people who get infected with this variant, despite having been previously infected or vaccinated, develop any serious disease? 

And, unfortunately, we’re only going to be able to answer that question in the next few weeks, because we believe—and the top scientists in the world believe—that this variant only emerged around two or three weeks ago. 

So it needs time for people to get infected and develop symptoms to get hospitalized. That’s a question of time, and you probably noticed that [Anthony] Fauci highlighted that.

The other question that we want to answer is: How effective is the vaccine against the variant? We can answer that in two ways. 

The first one, as I just highlighted, is following people who are vaccinated and infected to see if they develop disease. 

And the other one is by replicating the virus in a lab, and then exposing this virus to the plasma of people who were previously vaccinated so you can see if the antibodies that they have developed can kill the virus. 

You can do that in a live virus, which is the gold standard, or you can do that in a pseudovirus assay, where you add the mutations of the virus to a normally inactivated virus backbone. So, those are the true crucial questions.

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@GeneralDagllo warns the #EU & #US of #refugee_flows from #Sudan if they do not support the new leadership. H/T @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa


Europe and the U.S. may face a refugee surge from Sudan if they don’t support the country’s regime under the new military-led government, according to a top Sudanese general.
Senior General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo told POLITICO that Europe and the U.S have little choice but to support the latest government to avert a refugee crisis — and he noted that Sudan’s borders are kept in check by the military, which is coming under criticism from the West for staging a coup.
He made his comments as his country is buffeted by political turmoil. In October, military leaders took control of the Sudanese government and placed civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok under house arrest, drawing international condemnation.

Dagalo said his message for Europe and the U.S. is to set aside their suspicions and regard him and Burhan as sources of stability, pointing to Sudan’s large refugee population. 

According to the United Nations, Sudan hosts over 1 million refugees from other countries. 

The international agency also notes that nearly 7 million Sudanese and South Sudanese people have been forcibly displaced, either within their own country or throughout the region.
Dagalo, who serves as the deputy to Sudan’s top general Fattah al-Burhan, isn’t a trusted figure in international circles. 

As commander of the country’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, Dagalo has long been linked by human rights groups to war crimes and other atrocities, especially in Sudan’s Darfur province.
In the interview through a translator, Dagalo denied such allegations, saying he was the target of “fake news” campaigns.
“In 2019, when we took the people’s side, we protected the peaceful protesters, otherwise millions would have been killed,” he said.

“If Europe is to maintain this stance, it will have to urgently find ways to square the circle of maintaining fidelity to democracy and healing the split between the prime minister and protest movement,” wrote Theodore Murphy, director of the Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

“Europeans should bring pressure to bear to wring the maximum out of the military and treat the Political Agreement as a positive start to expand upon, rather than an end in itself.”

Conclusions

He understands blackmail intuitively. 

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JUN-2019 :: Hugh Masekela said I want to be there when the people start to turn it around. Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.
Africa

The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.
And now we have two visions of the Future. One vision played out on our screens, t

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Ethiopia's PM, on frontline, urges troops to 'destroy' enemy @Reuters
Africa


Footage from the front that aired on state-affiliated Fana Broadcasting on Tuesday showed Abiy wearing military jungle fatigues and cap and scanning the horizon with binoculars.

"The East Command secured an unimaginable victory in just one day of planning and a day and half long fighting," he said. "Now we will repeat that victory in this front.”
Fana said he was addressing troops on the frontlines of the Ethiopian conflict, near Gashena in Amhara region. Reuters could not independently verify his location.
"The enemy is defeated. Our remaining task is to rout the enemy and destroy them," he told soldiers assembled under a clump of trees.
Abiy, whose army has been battling forces from the northern region of Tigray for more than a year, said he was headed to the frontline last week to supervise operations. read more
"Tigrayan youth are falling like leaves. They should know that they have been defeated and surrender starting from today," Abiy, a Nobel Peace laureate, said in the footage.
Getachew Reda, the spokesman for the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the main force fighting the federal government, could not be reached for comment.
On Monday, Reda accused Abiy of engaging in "farcical war games".
The Tigrayan forces have threatened to push into the capital Addis Ababa or to try to cut a corridor linking landlocked Ethiopia with the region's largest port.
The TPLF dominated national politics until Abiy took power in 2018. Since the conflict eruped a year ago, the war in northern Ethiopia has killed thousands and displaced millions in Africa's second most populous nation.
Tigrayan forces were initially beaten back, but recaptured most of the region in July and pushed into neighbouring Amhara and Afar, displacing hundreds of thousands more people.

A year ago, the Ethiopian government called it a mere law enforcement operation that would be finished within weeks. Now it is an existential war.


Turning and turning in the widening gyre


Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.






November 8, 2020 .@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.





Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.





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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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