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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 28th of December 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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29-NOV-2021 :: Regime Change
World Of Finance

 



A REGIME CHANGE IS UNDERWAY [in the markets]
There is no training – classroom or otherwise.. that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. 

There's typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. Paul Tudor-Jones
I have been warning

The Music has been playing for Eternity and its about to stop
https://bit.ly/2Wzp4Fg
And below captioned is my favourite musical snippet of recent times

 

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Was studying Devi (The Goddess,1960) again,less discussed, complex, prophetic,heartbreaking. @Peachtreespeaks
Misc.


Subrata Mitra - simply magical. So world cinema ! I can only think of Sven Vilhem Nykvist as a parallel to that kind of cinematography, till mid`60`s . 

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Graciela Iturbide. Birds @martha_never
Misc.


White Denim - Just Dropped In (To See What Condition My Condition Was In) Fargo Season 2 Soundtrack


I woke up this morning with the sundown shining in
I found my mind in a brown paper bag within
I tripped on a cloud and fell-a eight miles high
I tore my mind on a jagged sky
I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in
Yeah, yeah, oh-yeah, what condition my condition was in
I pushed my soul in a deep dark hole and then I followed it in
I watched myself crawling out as I was a-crawling in
I got up so tight I couldn't unwind
I saw so much I broke my mind
I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in
Yeah, yeah, oh-yeah, what condition my condition was in
Someone painted April Fool in big black letters on a Dead End sign
I had my foot on the gas as I left the road and blew out my mind
Eight miles outta Memphis and I got no spare
Eight miles straight up downtown somewhere
I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in
I said I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in

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@Aiww What's in a Name?
Misc.


A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed part of the ever-changing human world. 

A name is the most basic characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich
all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.

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From Conrad’s Kurtz to Enoch Powell @BylineTimes
Law & Politics


Under Boris Johnson’s leadership, the Conservative Party has reversed half a century of attempts at post-imperial reform, and – regardless of whether the Prime Minister stays or goes – is now embarked on an ethno-nationalist, protectionist, statist project, with major institutional changes afoot, observe Peter Jukes and Hardeep Matharu
The 1899 novella Heart of Darkness by the Polish-born novelist Joseph Conrad laid bare the brutality of the colonial project of European powers in Africa – focusing on the fictional character of Kurtz, an ivory trader and post commander on the Congo River, driven into savagery: the coloniser devoured by the brutality racistly ascribed to the colonised.
The work inspired Francis Ford Coppola’s epic 1979 war movie, Apocalypse Now, exploring America’s own corruption by its neocolonial exploits in Vietnam and Cambodia in the 1970s. 

Marlon Brando brought to life the paranoia of Kurtz in his memorable portrayal, with the declaration to “exterminate the brutes!” and his dying words “the horror… the horror”, both of which appear in Conrad’s book.
In the original – based on Conrad’s own experience in colonial Africa – the disturbing story is recounted by a steamship captain who had navigated the Congo River, Charles Marlow, now moored up on a ship in the port of London. 

It ends on a sombre understanding that the Thames itself “seemed to lead into the heart of an immense darkness”. 

Both the film and book suggest that colonisers are changed by colonisation, just as much as the colonised – incorporating both the guilt and supremacy of an ‘empire state of mind’ into their psyches.
It is a dark current which still flows through British politics to this day.
Back in 1968, when the would-be Conservative leader Enoch Powell made his famous claim that racial resentment would destroy Britain and that he could see the River Tiber would be “foaming with much blood”, the Conservative Party was faced with another classic scene from Latin literature: a Rubicon.
Would post-Imperial Britain, having conquered a quarter of the world and helped during two world wars by colonial soldiers and workers to support it, instead turn on its new multi-ethnic citizenry back in the home country? 

Would the global colonial project turn into a domestic one – creating a racialised system of conflict, suppression and violence: from the enemies overseas to the enemies within?
Like Kurtz, Powell’s speech was full of psychological projection and the fear of retribution, as he predicts that the black man will have the “whip hand” in 50 years’ time over those who have “found themselves made strangers in their own country”. 

This is, of course, a reverse colonial mentality: having actually made people strangers in their own countries and exerting a very real whip hand, the coloniser feels that it will inevitably happen to him.
Powell’s doom-laden projection of racial warfare never came to fruition in 2018. 

But the underlying apocalypse needs no end date, and Powell’s “evil” genius (“evil” was how The Times described the watershed speech) was to make it a constant, future threat – one which is always around the corner; or on boats heading across the Channel.
Powell’s version of Britain was effectively suppressed within the Conservative party half a century ago. 

But, as Byline Times columnist Peter Oborne explained in an interview with Byline TV, “it’s very fascinating that that great historic battle which appeared to have been won by Edward Heath, has actually been won by Enoch Powell – through the medium of Boris Johnson”.
The seeds of Powell’s politics of othering were sown in Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Dominic Cummings’ Vote Leave campaign during the 2016 Brexit referendum. 

Although they distanced themselves from Nigel Farage’s overtly racist ‘Breaking Point’ poster, they employed the same dog whistles by claiming significant numbers of Turks would be coming to Britain and that this, along with immigration from other countries in the Middle East, posed a terrorist threat. 

Many other variations from this playbook have been deployed by Johnson’s Government ever since.
Five years on, these seeds have flourished and spread. The Brexit vision – for all its claims to be about a ‘global’, outward-looking Britain – has crystallised into an ethno-nationalist project, predicated on the ‘threats’ from abroad and fifth columnists within.  
Now the country has finally exited the EU, the attempts to blame ‘Brussels bureaucrats’ are harder to maintain – though various Conservative MPs and ministers attempt to blame perfidious France over fishing rights in the Channel. 

Though quick to summon up mythic images of Britain standing alone in World War Two, the Europeans don’t make good enemies these days. 

Through countless physical, economic and cultural ties, we are too close to them – and Johnson’s Britain has none of the economic power, or imperial hinterland, to genuinely go it alone. 

But the ethno-nationalist vision always requires barbarians at the gates – so new ones are needed.
In the first half of 2021, a major domestic front was also opened up with a ‘War on Woke’; a crusade to find enemies in culture and civil society. The campaign had limited success.
As that faltered, the Home Secretary opened up a new front, both in high profile PR campaigns and in legislation, against more easily demonised barbarians at the gates: ‘illegal migrants’ crossing the Channel in boats – even though the majority of them turn out to be genuine asylum seekers; among them the many abandoned by the UK’s peremptory evacuation of Afghanistan.
 She presides over a hardline approach towards certain ‘bad’ and ‘undeserving’ immigrants – the same attitude that Enoch Powell and others expressed towards the Ugandan Asians welcomed to Britain by Ted Heath. 

For Powell, despite their British passports, Patel’s relatives weren’t really British and should have gone “back” to India. 

Despite this, his perpetual, future threat from ‘others’ is a key pillar of her department’s policies.
The dehumanisation of asylum seekers and the stoking of fears of being ‘swamped’ by immigrants is not unique to British politics, nor to Patel. 

It accelerated under the brief post-Brexit tenure of Theresa May as Prime Minister, when she made a distinction between those who ‘belonged’ and “citizens of nowhere” – be they feckless cosmopolitan elites or foreign marauders.
Almost inevitably, just as the versions of leaving the EU became more and more extreme, so has this othering of strangers – until Britain has become estranged from itself. 

The imagined porosity of our external borders has created new, hard internal borders – literally in the case of the Irish Sea and the transit of goods between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
Resisting the threat of alien invasion has metastasized – as in the case of Shamima Begum – into a policy of removing the inalienable rights of British citizens. We are all potentially citizens of nowhere now.
The removal of historic citizenship rights is just one part of a spiral of escalation that acts out the often unconscious ethno-nationalist thinking behind the Vote Leave regime that took power in 2019. Nothing is enough for the world of Leave.
We were told we would remain close to Europe and stay in the single market or a customs union. But, at each stage, the rhetoric became more extreme until we achieved an ultra-hard Brexit, just short of a no ‘deal’.
The rupture with the EU became a rupture within the UK. Exiting the EU soon became an excuse to abandon our own traditions, with voter suppression measures to deter voting, neutering of the Electoral Commission, and two new bills on borders and policing removing ancient rights of identity and protest. 

Soon, Boris Johnson was not only promising to break international law over the Good Friday Agreement, but also unlawfully trying to usurp the sovereignty of Parliament by proroguing it.
A year into full withdrawal, the acceptance of – sometimes celebration of – the material economic harm of leaving the EU merely emphasises how Enoch Powell is a much more important influence on the Conservative Vote Leave Government than Adam Smith, Freidrich Hayek or the liberal or neoliberal thinkers who dominated the party for the past 40 years.
So important is the narrow ethno-nationalist project, Johnson’s Government is willing to abandon all the previous Thatcherite nostrums of small government, fiscal frugality, free trade and open markets. 

These days, Brexiters openly talk – in ‘sado-populist’ terms – about how leaving the EU must be costly, and only worth it because it hurts. 

We summon our sovereign pride by material suffering, and those sacrifices of trade, living standards and international connection, are like wafts of sacred incense around the altar of national purity.
And with that, the Vote Leave project will have achieved its hidden objective – and, like Conrad’s Kurtz – have left the norms and standards of the modern world. 

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Calling people alarmist when they're providing factual and accurate information in the midst of a pandemic is usually a silencing strategy used to try and control the narrative, and often to maintain the status quo @dgurdasani1
Law & Politics

In my view, calling people alarmist when they're providing factual and accurate information in the midst of a pandemic is usually a silencing strategy used to try and control the narrative, and often to maintain the status quo, no matter how damaging that is.

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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics

I found myself rereading [admittedly some 42 years later] 

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The book of Job: They meet with darkness in the daytime, and grope in the noonday as in the night.
Misc.


29-NOV-2021 ::  Regime Change

https://j.mp/32AZEK5

The Invisible Microbe has metastasized into Omicron and what we know is that COVID-19 far from becoming less virulent has become more virulent.
The transmissibility of #Omicron is not in question, it clearly has a spectacular advantage.
The Open Question is whether it is more virulent. If it is less virulent then #Omicron is breaking the Trend of increasing virulence.

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When a new SARS-CoV-2 variant arises, there are three main questions: (1) How transmissible? (2) How virulent? (3) How much antigenic change? Third question important as it’s the most actionable @jbloom_lab
Misc.

When a new SARS-CoV-2 variant arises, there are three main questions: (1) How transmissible? (2) How virulent? (3) How much antigenic change? Third question important as it’s the most actionable: we can update vaccines & develop new antibodies.

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Arguably the laziest and most damaging cognitive error of the pandemic is not appreciating that lagged outcomes like deaths don’t reflect current threat in a rising epidemic. @AdamJKucharski
Misc.


Arguably the laziest and most damaging cognitive error of the pandemic is not appreciating that lagged outcomes like deaths don’t reflect current threat in a rising epidemic. Remember: first UK COVID case was identified on 31 Jan 2020 - first death was reported on 5 Mar.

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First of all, many more people will die than would not have if Omicron didn’t appear. It will burn through existing immunity Even at a 5x lower death rate, because of many more people getting it, it will cause many extra deaths. @ydeigin
Misc.



First of all, many more people will die than would not have if Omicron didn’t appear. It will burn through existing immunity and infect huge numbers of people worldwide. Even at a 5x lower death rate, because of many more people getting it, it will cause many extra deaths. 

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Faster growth gives negative bias to naive estimate of omicron severity. Using recent rates of growth from @trvrb and @twenseleers the bias is by an order of magnitude @paulmromer
Misc.


29-NOV-2021 ::  Regime Change
https://j.mp/32AZEK5

The Invisible Microbe has metastasized into Omicron and what we know is that COVID-19 far from becoming less virulent has become more virulent.
The transmissibility of #Omicron is not in question, it clearly has a spectacular advantage.
The Open Question is whether it is more virulent. If it is less virulent then #Omicron is breaking the Trend of increasing virulence.

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That a variant can arise that can escape existing immunity greatly diminishes the hope that vaccines/immunity can eventually eradicate SARS2. @ydeigin
Misc.



Second, there is no guarantee Omicron can even rid us of Delta, let alone end the pandemic. On the contrary, its arrival is bad news: that a variant can arise that can escape existing immunity greatly diminishes the hope that vaccines/immunity can eventually eradicate SARS2.

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There is no end in sight. Also, there is no guarantee the next immunoevading variant won’t be deadlier than Omicron or even Delta. @ydeigin
Misc.


But now we see Omicron arise and reinfect everyone, which means so could the next variant and there is no end in sight. Also, there is no guarantee the next immunoevading variant won’t be deadlier than Omicron or even Delta. 

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There are at least two unknowns: how durable Omicron’s immunity is against its own reinfection (hopefully durable enough), and what’s the chance that the next variant arises that will escape ALL prior immunity (hopefully low). @ydeigin
Misc.

That’s the hope, but there are at least two unknowns: how durable Omicron’s immunity is against its own reinfection (hopefully durable enough), and what’s the chance that the next variant arises that will escape ALL prior immunity (hopefully low).

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More and more data emerge that SARS2 can remain active for months in people who show no symptoms. I really hope such dormant infections won’t re-emerge years later like shingles or FIP. @ydeigin
Misc.


Oh, and yet another unknown is the potential persistence of SARS2 in people who recover. More and more data emerge that SARS2 can remain active for months in people who show no symptoms. I really hope such dormant infections won’t re-emerge years later like shingles or FIP.

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They’ll never report this accurately when it happens, but with an Rt of 5+ it’s impossible for China’s zero-tolerance Covid policy to withstand the global Omicron wave without bringing their economy to a complete standstill. @EpsilonTheory
Misc.

They’ll never report this accurately when it happens, but with an Rt of 5+ it’s impossible for China’s zero-tolerance Covid policy to withstand the global Omicron wave without bringing their economy to a complete standstill. No one is talking about this.


The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
http://bit.ly/2VlypvG

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1325
Dollar Index 96.06
Japan Yen 114.84
Swiss Franc 0.9174
Pound 1.3434
Aussie 0.7242
India Rupee 74.8955
South Korea Won 1186.89
Brazil Real 5.6255
Egypt Pound 15.709594
South Africa Rand 15.55314

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African Region WHO regional overviews Epidemiological week 13 – 19 December 2021
Africa


The African Region continued to see an increase in the reported case incidence in the last month. 

Over 256 000 new cases were reported (an increase of 53%) as compared to the previous week, the highest number of weekly cases reported since the start of the pandemic. 

Increases in incidence of over 50% were observed in nearly half (23/49; 47%) of countries in the Region. 

The highest numbers of new cases continued to be reported from 

South Africa (162 987 new cases; 274.8 new cases per 100 000 population; a 50% increase) 

Zimbabwe (26 671 new cases; 179.4 new cases per 100 000 population; similar to the previous week’s number)

Eswatini now reporting the third highest incidence of cases (7540 new cases; 649.9 new cases per 100 000 population; a 57% increase).
The Region reported just under 500 new weekly deaths, similar to the number in the previous week. 

The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (229 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000 population; a 52% increase)

Mauritius (60 new deaths; 4.7 new deaths per 100 000; a 35% decrease)

Zimbabwe (47 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; an 81% increase).

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 77 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa

Kenya and Burundi at peak DR Congo 90% of peak Ethiopia reports its largest number of new COVID-19 infections since the start of the pandemic: 3,700
Angola reports highest number of new infections since October
Average number of new infections reported each day in Namibia rises by more than 760 over the last 3 weeks, 43% of its previous peak

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Congo registered 6,480 new cases in the week of Dec. 13 - more than double the number hit during its previous record week in June, World Health Organization data show.
Africa


At the St Joseph COVID Treatment Centre in Kinshasa, patients lie in ramshackle rooms breathing oxygen from old tanks. The clinic has 38 beds, and all but one are occupied.

"We have experienced the three previous waves gradually, but in the fourth wave cases have jumped overnight," said Francois Kajingulu, the head of St Joseph. "On Monday we had 5-6 cases and on Saturday we went straight from 30 to 36."

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Here's a weekly summary of #COVID19 in South Africa with week-on-week % changes: @rid1tweets
Africa

Cases and test positivity declining, hospitalistions slowing

• Cases -19%
• Tests -13%
• Test positivity at 29.0%
• Hospitalisations +12%
• Deaths +87%

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Richest African Countries by GDP per Capita @marisangas
Africa

1.Seychelles - $26,120
2.Mauritius - $22,030
3.Equatorial Guinea - $18,240
4.Botswana - $18,110
5.Gabon - $16,240
6.Madagascar - $13,720
7.Egypt - $13,080
8.South Africa - $12,440
9.Algeria - $11,430
10.Tunisia - $10,590

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Pertinent Issues on the War in Tigray @gentsadkan
Africa


The Ethio-Eritrean war against the people of Tigray has entered a new phase, following the decision of the Government of the National Regional State of Tigray to redeploy its forces to the borders of Tigray, announced by the leadership on December 19. 

For the people of Tigray, it is fundamentally a war for survival.

The aims of the leadership of Tigray in the war in Ethiopia are, first, to save the people of Tigray from a genocidal onslaught including forced starvation and, second, to establish an all-inclusive government for Ethiopia as a whole. 

There is no intention to install a government in Addis Ababa led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). 

Instead, we want the people of Tigray to govern themselves within a multi-national federal system

Eleven months ago after the first round of fighting in which, the people of Tigray were facing a coordinated campaign of destruction from the governments in Ethiopia and Eritrea, the leadership of Tigray, including the TPLF and others, met together to decide how to respond. 

The Central Command was established to serve as the highest decision making body with regard to the war effort. 

The Central Command under the regional government of Tigray is leading the whole war effort including the activities of the TDF (Tigray Defense Forces) up to now.  

I am a member of the Central Command but the views I am expressing here are my personal views and should not be taken to reflect the views of the Tigray Government and Central Command. 

In June, after our forces liberated most of Tigray, the Central Command issued an eight point proposal for talks with the Federal Government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, which we hoped would lead to a ceasefire and a peaceful settlement. 

Abiy did not respond to those proposals and continually rejected the efforts of international interlocutors. 

He refused to meet our non-negotiable precondition which is ending the war crime of starvation by permitting humanitarian aid and restoring essential services. 

Although the starvation of our people is not on your television screens, it is real. 

Every day, children and their mothers are perishing of hunger. Our people are dying needlessly from treatable diseases because our hospitals have no medicine. 

Abiy made it perfectly clear that he intended to crush the sprite of resistance to subjugation in Tigray through a starvation siege. 

In this context the Central Command took the decision to pursue the war, joining forces with other groups to establish a United Front. 

This includes organizations from Oromo, Somali, Afar, Agaw and others. The biggest of these groups is the Oromo Liberation Army. 

There was and still is a desire to include other political forces including Amhara political forces as well. We are fighting to protect the principles of the Federal Constitution of Ethiopia, starting with the cherished affirmation that sovereign legitimacy resides in the nations, nationalities and peoples of Ethiopia. 

Abiy, on the other hand, is fighting to overturn the constitution. 

The Amhara elites continually talk about an Ethiopia that is greater than its people. They are ready to kill for this ideology and they are sending thousands of young people to die for it. 

These elites claim legitimacy for their group only, looking backwards to the era when Ethiopia was an Amhara-ruled empire. 

We have experienced this kind of ultra-nationalism in the past and it neither secured national territorial integrity nor protected the central government from collapse

Instead, the project of a centralized Ethiopian empire led to war and destruction in all corners of our country. This was why the 1995 Ethiopian constitution, which remains in place today, defines the country as the voluntary unity of its peoples within a federal system. 

The Tigray Central Command pursued the war in order to compel the government to negotiate on equal terms and, failing that, to replace it with an all-inclusive Transitional Government. 

Foreign and domestic political forces were apprehensive of a “repeat of 1991”, referring to the military victory of the TPLF and its coalition partners in that year. 

We made it clear that the political landscape both in Tigray and Ethiopia have changed so much so that there is no option for such a scenario. 

Moreover, Tigray cannot shoulder the responsibility for reconstituting the Ethiopian state, especially so without any agreed domestic political arrangement and clear international support. 

Our political discussions within the United Front and other political forces which were yet to be part of the coalition were proceeding more slowly than our military advance, which reached the outskirts of the city of Debre Birhan, just 145 km from Addis Ababa. 

The prospect that we would march into the capital city caused panic mainly among the internationals and to some extent Ethiopians as well

We understand that fear. We also want those who are dismayed about the   safety of the capital to understand the intolerable suffering and the threat of continuing genocide that the Tigrayan people are living under every day. This was the reason for our decision to march towards Addis Ababa.  

We hoped the political developments, both international and domestic, would catch up by then as well. This did not happen. 

We appreciate that many around the world, including the U.S., the European Union, and the international media, have exposed the grievous violations against our people and demanded that they stop. 

We were hopeful that the matter would be raised at the UN Security Council which would act on its obligations to uphold fundamental norms about humanity and act energetically to promote a peaceful resolution of the conflict. 

But China and Russia consistently blocked any efforts. It appears to us that they did so because they saw the war in terms of the balance of geo-strategic power, and sacrificed principles for political point-scoring, abandoning people to die out of their narrow mindedness. 

Regrettably, Western nations’ actions did not go beyond rhetoric. They appealed for a cessation of hostilities and for humanitarian access, but in practice these were empty gestures. 

They did not use the diplomatic and economic tools in their hands. Worse, the rhetoric of western governments and the silence of the African Union gave Abiy the pretext to adopt slogans of anti-imperialism and pan-Africanism which in turn allowed China and Russia, along with Iran, Turkey and the UAE, to sell arms. 

Tigray got words, Abiy got weapons. The best that can be said for those supporting Abiy is that his backers believe they are protecting the Ethiopian state from collapse. They are misinformed. 

They are saving a government in name only. Our forces encounter this on the battlefield: the Ethiopian National Defense Force is kitted out in uniforms and has modern equipment, ranks and units, but it fights like a rag-tag horde of feudal levies, backed by an air force and drones supplied by foreigners. 

Administrative structures have collapsed across the country. Salaries are not paid, schoolchildren are sent to harvest the fields. The foreign ministry has been replaced by campaigns on Twitter and Facebook. 

The peace and security architecture for the Horn, which was painstakingly built by Ethiopia’s diplomats and peacekeepers in partnership with the African Union and United Nations, has been summarily demolished. 

In fact, Abiy is implementing the blueprint of Isaias Afwerki, dictator of Eritrea. This is to build a trio of autocrats: Isaias, Abiy and the Somali president Mohamed Farmaajo. 

For Ethiopia this means a dictator in Addis Ababa ruling over a weak and fragmented state, all under the heel of Eritrea. 

The Ethiopian state under Abiy Ahmed and his Amhara interlocutors is being used as a Trojan Horse for the unbridled and oversized ambition of Isaias Afewerki, who he himself is serving as an agent of the Middle Eastern countries

I would like to make one thing clear, if the resistance in Tigray is crushed by the combined forces of the Ethiopian federal government, Amhara forces, and their backers in the Middle East (Turkey, UAE, and Iran) the floodgates for Isaias to implement his blueprint will be open. 

The region of the Horn of Africa will be run as per the dictat of the Eritrean dictator. Is the international community, Africa and the region willing to live with the impending scenario? If the answer to the question posed is no, the time to act is now. 

The Ethiopian government has begged and borrowed and sold its assets to get arms from foreign powers who have little knowledge about the country and less goodwill. 

No amount of jingoistic rhetoric can conceal that Abiy has made Ethiopia into a beggar. Those who are putting coins on his plate today will want him to sing for them tomorrow. 

Where Middle Eastern powers have poured in their weapons and money, and the international community has recognized a government in name only, we do not see stability. 

In Libya, Syria and Yemen we see the reality of state collapse. The government becomes a client of its biggest paymasters and the country becomes locked in unending conflict. We need to save Ethiopia from this fate. 

The U.S. government expressed its serious concern over the maintenance and continuity of the Ethiopian state. 

It stated its intention to bring a rapid resolution to the war through negotiation. Washington DC openly opposed the advance of the TDF to Addis Ababa, threatening the government of Tigray with sanctions if our forces approached the city. 

On the other hand, the U.S. expressed no strategy (at least to us) to end the war except appeasing Abiy Ahmed with flattery. 

The policy of appeasement has not brought any solution before and it will not bring fast resolution of the conflict and save the Ethiopian state either. 

In my opinion the fastest way to end the conflict has now evaporated. In this context, the TDF is fighting absolutely alone. It has no international allies and no military or other material assistance from abroad. 

Tigrayan people do not even receive humanitarian aid. The Tigrayan people are few, impoverished but gallant and with a strong sense of identity. 

We have a long and proud history of fighting against invaders of our land and we are repeating the heroic feats of our predecessors. 

Our forces did not advance on Addis Ababa. In the last two weeks, the effects of swarms of drones on the TDF advanced positions and supply lines has been substantial. 

Personnel of Eritrean armored divisions are in daily combat within the ranks of the ENDF. Eritrean forces still occupy substantial parts of Tigray. 

In these circumstances, with long and vulnerable supply lines to our forces, and no effective international political process for a negotiated settlement, the Government of regional state of Tigray through the Central command decided to withdraw to defensive positions to consolidate our forces. 

A withdrawal under drone fire is a difficult military operation which we have accomplished successfully. We are undefeated. 

Over the last few days, the Ethio-Eritrean coalition forces attempted to penetrate our lines, from south, west and east. They were repulsed with heavy losses. 

After these setbacks the regime in Addis Ababa announced that it had completed “phase one” of its operation and would not be continuing its attacks. 

This statement, coupled with the previously announced position of the National Regional Government of Tigray for a ceasefire, opens an opportunity for the international community, led by Kenya, to press for a cessation of hostilities and initiate peace talks. 

If this does not happen, the war will continue not only in Tigray but in other places in Ethiopia as well. There will be more loss of lives; economic destruction and whatever political and social fabric that might have persisted up to now will be destroyed which means saving the Ethiopian multinational federal state as we know it becomes very difficult. 

Now the regime of Abiy Ahmed could be preparing to initiate an “inclusive dialogue” controlled and monitored by itself. 

He is trying hard to make the world believe him he has “defeated the rebels” and would offer them to be part of this inclusive dialogue, as individuals not as the TPLF. 

Some in the international community might support his idea as well. This process will not work. Any inclusive dialogue should be done by neutral bodies with the participation of the major political forces in Ethiopia sponsored and supported by the international community. 

The mechanism could be worked out with the assistance of experts on the field. We hope that African countries will rise to the challenge of hosting and facilitating the conference. 

There must be a political solution to the war in Ethiopia. Whether this includes Abiy or not is secondary. 

What is important is that the human crisis facing the Tigrayan people is averted and that the settlement to this war should usher in stability, democracy and development. 

My vision for this is as follows. Tigray must stand on its feet and must have cast iron guarantees that the genocidal assaults of the last year will never, ever happen again. 

We shall rely on ourselves, as we have shown we can do, but we also rely on Africa and the international community to ensure that we are not alone if we ever again face enemies determined to destroy us. 

Ethiopia is a nation of nations, and the only way forward for the country is to recognize this. 

There can be no return to empire-building or the domination of one group over another Tigray is an ancient civilization, a place where Christianity has deep roots and where the peaceful coexistence and symbiosis between Muslims, Christians and Jews goes back fourteen centuries. 

Recognizing and preserving this is the foundation stone for stability for Ethiopia, our neighbors in the Horn of Africa, and the countries on the other shore of the Red Sea. 

Tigray is an African nation. We have contributed to the birth of African civilization and we have contributed to the vision of an Africa that is stable, secure and independent from external powers, whether they be Europe, America, the Middle East or Asia. 

Tigrayans are proud of our contribution to Ethiopia’s diplomacy and peacekeeping which was a pillar of stability and development in the Horn of Africa region. 

We are proud of our contribution to regional economic integration including water, electricity and transport infrastructure joining neighboring countries. 

The entire international community, including Russia, China, and all the countries in the Middle East, have a responsibility to humanity that should override whatever policy differences they may have with America and Europe. 

That same common responsibility extends to protecting a cultural heritage, by halting the war against a people who have been the custodian of this unique intersection of faiths and cultures. 

The Horn of Africa is a region where the world’s great powers all have legitimate interests. The world needs maritime security, seeks to stamp out violent extremism, and wants to avert the specter of massive distress migration driven by conflict, famine and state collapse. 

We in Tigray recognize this. Given our proximity and history we want to be constructive player by securing our national interest and legitimate national interest of other player in the sub region. 

The world should not allow a repeat of Syria, Yemen or Libya in the Horn at the western flank of the Red Sea. 

This is not a zero-sum game. Ethiopia should be the place where these international and regional interests converge in a multilateral pact. 

All Ethiopians need a ceasefire and political negotiations. 

Our political goals are clear and we have reiterated our proposal for a ceasefire. This may start with a freeze in combat—a cessation of hostilities. 

It must then develop into a full and permanent ceasefire, which is a complicated military operation requiring professionalism on both sides. 

An essential component of a ceasefire is third party monitoring and verification. Africa has extensive experience in this and we are confident that our African brothers will be able to provide the necessary expertise and capacity. 

Ethiopia is unique but it is also an African country where Africa’s principles and wisdom are much needed. 

Over the last thirty years, beginning when I had the honor of serving as chief of staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, Ethiopia has become an integral part of Africa’s peace and security architecture, extending our services in diplomacy and peacekeeping across the continent in a spirit of brotherhood and solidarity. 

We now call on our African brothers to reach out their hand in that same spirit.

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9-JUL-2021 :: His Adversaries are fighting for their existence.
Africa


February 1st 2021 ‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
https://bit.ly/3oNXfkB

“Everybody else is going to start wanting more freedom within the constitution. It’s impossible for the state to manage a guerrilla war up there and at the same time manage to control the rest of the country. If he put more resources into Tigray he’s going to lose more control of the other regions.''

JUL-2021 :: The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.


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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance
Africa

Now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.



20 JAN 20 ::  The Intrusion of Middle Powers

https://bit.ly/3vKYbeJ

The falcon cannot hear the falconer
https://bit.ly/3Bk45Gj

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.


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@RondosForAfrica @Rondos_EU raises the spectre of the Sri Lanka Tamil solution @BBCNewshour
Africa

Just in case anyone forgot: Sri Lanka is now governed by Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a man so sinister he used to keep a tank of sharks in his garden. Death of the Tiger @newyorker Jon Lee Anderson H/T @jamescrabtree
http://bit.ly/2CVa1bI


The Tamil army—known as the L.T.T.E., or simply the Tigers—was led by Velupillai Prabhakaran, a charismatic, elusive man who had become one of the most successful guerrilla leaders of modern times. 
The Tigers’ collapse began in January, 2009, when they lost the town of Kilinochchi, their de-facto capital
Hemmed in by the sea, a lagoon, and a hundred thousand government soldiers, they were all but helpless, as the Army kept up a barrage of fire from gunboats, aircraft, and field artillery.
There were later reports, which the government denied, that as many as forty thousand civilians were killed during the Army’s final offensive, and that their bodies were burned or buried in secret mass graves.
“Most of them were Black Tigers,” he said, referring to the Tamil suicide squad. “Prabhakaran was among us, too, but none of us saw him.
One soldier said, in Sinhala—I understand a little—‘We have orders to shoot everyone.’ We were shouting for them not to shoot.” 
“It is in my mind. When I sleep, automatically it comes out—things I only saw in films in my youth. Bodies without heads. Bodies with the stomach open and the liver coming out.” He added, 
“At the end, we were walking out through fire and past dead people, and the soldiers were laughing at us and saying, ‘We have killed all your leaders. Now you are our slaves.’ You can imagine how I feel about my country.”
On the same day, May 18th, the Army announced that the Tiger leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, had been killed, along with two hundred and fifty others, during an overnight escape attempt across the Nandikadal Lagoon, which separated the beach from the mainland. 
Images were released of his body lying at the feet of Army troops, a handkerchief over his forehead to conceal a yawning wound. The Army claimed that it had cremated his remains. 
Prabhakaran’s eldest child, Charles Anthony, was killed the day before, along with other fighters who launched a final assault on Army lines. 
Soon after, the Army said it had also Recovered the bodies of Prabhakaran’s wife, their daughter, and their youngest child, a boy, all of them dead of gunshot wounds. 
Rajapaksa declared a national holiday. “We have liberated the whole country from L.T.T.E. terrorism,” he said.
“Our intention was to save the Tamil people from the cruel grip of the L.T.T.E. We all must now live as equals in this free country.”
One of his brothers, Gotabaya, is his defense minister; another, Basil, is his chief of staff and minister for economic development; and a third, Chamal, is Speaker of Parliament. 
His twenty-four-year-old son Namal was recently elected to Parliament, and forty-odd additional brothers, sisters, cousins, nephews, nieces, and in-laws hold various other government posts.
The important thing, he said, was that Sri Lanka had ended terrorism, making it the first country in the modern age to have done so. 
In military circles around the world, the “Sri Lanka option” for counter-insurgency was discussed with admiration. 
Its basic tenets were: deny access to the media, the United Nations, and human-rights groups; isolate your opponents, and kill them as quickly as possible; and segregate and terrify the survivors—or, ideally, leave no witnesses at all.

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@HkZuk
Africa


10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
http://bit.ly/2R05o6l

As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.
And now we have two visions of the Future. One vision played out on our screens, the protestors could have been our wives, children.
The other vision is red in tooth and claw.

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@KeEquityBank share price data
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Price: 49.15
Market Capitalization: $1.641b
EPS: 5.24
PE: 9.380

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.@BritamEA share price data
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Price: 7.04
Market Capitalization: $157.215
EPS:  -3.62
PE:  -1.945

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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