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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 08th of March 2021
 
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Africa


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"If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change." - Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa , The Leopard
Africa



"Now the road was crossing orange groves in flower, and the nuptial scent of the blossoms absorbed the rest as a full moon does a landscape ..all cancelled out by that Islamic perfume evoking houris and fleshly joys beyond the grave."

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The Leopard (Il Gattopardo) is one of the greatest Italian literary works of the 20th century.
Misc.

Everyday activities foreground the novel: daily recital of the Rosary, evening readings around the fire, faded grandeur of meals where “monumental dishes of macaroni” are served among massive silver and splendid glass, a walk and hunting expedition in the sunburnt Sicilian countryside, a magnificent ball.


Although The Leopard is a representation of 19th century Sicilian aristocracy, it is also a contemplative and ironic distancing from this same world. 

It is, above all, a novel that provides a profound meditation on transition and historical causality.


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"Al-Sistani, who normally remains seated for visitors, will stand to greet Francis at the door and walk him to an L-shaped blue sofa, inviting him to take a seat." @AP.
Misc.


One is the chief pastor of the world-wide Catholic Church, the other a pre-eminent figure in Shiite Islam whose opinion holds powerful sway on the Iraqi street and beyond. 

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The Sanctuary of Imam 'Ali (Arabic: حَرَم ٱلْإِمَام عَلِيّ‎,) located in Najaf, Iraq, is a mosque housing the tomb of 'Alī ibn Abī Tālib
Misc.



The Sanctuary of Imam 'Ali (Arabic: حَرَم ٱلْإِمَام عَلِيّ‎, romanized: Ḥaram al-ʾImām ʿAlī), also known as the Mosque of 'Ali (Arabic: مَسْجِد عَلِيّ‎, romanized: Masjid ʿAlī), located in Najaf, Iraq, is a mosque housing the tomb of 'Alī ibn Abī Tālib, the cousin of Muhammad and the first Imam after him, and the fourth Sunni Rashid Caliph. 

According to Shi'ite belief,[1] buried next to Ali within this mosque are the remains of Adam and Nuh (Noah).[1][2] Each year millions of pilgrims visit the Shrine and pay tribute to Imam Ali.

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There is no city like Najaf, which stands on the edge of the desert a few miles west of the Euphrates in Iraq.
Misc.



It was in nearby Kufa in 661 that Imam Ali, the son-in-law and cousin of the Prophet Mohamed, was badly wounded by an assassin and, as he lay dying, instructed his followers to strap his body to the back of a white camel and, where the camel stopped, to dig his grave. 

On this spot grew up the shrine city of Najaf, a place of pilgrimage for the Shia and home to many of their leaders, such as Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

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20-day average for global cases is now rising as B.1.1.7 continues its expansion. @video4me
Misc.

Risks of the even more highly infectious Brazilian P1 strain lead to tighter travel restrictions.

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Data from #Covid19 worldwide on March 06: + 436,193 cases in 24 hours @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.


Data from #Covid19 worldwide on March 06: + 436,193 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 116,502,810 in total  + 7,770 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,588,752 in total

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“I see a huge storm forming in Brazil.” Denise Garrett, vice president of the Sabin Vaccine Institute in Washington
Misc.



Conclusions

I expect th P.1 Lineage to be dominant worldwide in 8-12 weeks notwithstanding the Focus on SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 

My Thesis is based on the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World. 

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Model-based evaluation of transmissibility and reinfection for the P.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2
Misc.



Transmissibility and reinfection of P.1 were estimated using an epidemiological model-based fitting and public health data. 

The transmissibility is 2.5 times greater than the wild variant and reinfection probability is 6.4% on average.

The variant of concern (VOC) P.1 emerged in the Amazonas state (Brazil) and was sequenced for the first time on 6-Jan-2021 by the Japanese National Institute of Infectious Diseases. 

It contains a constellation of mutations, ten of them in the spike protein. 

The P.1 variant shares mutations such as E484K, K417T, and N501Y and a deletion in the orf1b protein (del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF)) with other VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom and South Africa (B.1.1.7 and the B.1.351, respectively).

Prevalence of P.1 increased sharply from 0% in November 2020 to 73% in January 2021 and in less than 2 months replaced previous lineages (4). 

The estimated relative transmissibility of P.1 is 2.5 (95% CI: 2.3-2.8) times higher than the infection rate of the wild variant, while the reinfection probability due to the new variant is 6.4% (95% CI: 5.7 - 7.1%). 

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The scenario in Brazil: A variant (P.1) at least 2x more transmissible than previous variants Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen. @bollemdb
Misc.




1. A variant (P.1) at least 2x more transmissible than previous variants (much more transmissible than the UK VOC).

2. 17 state capitals have ICUs that are > 80% full.

3. Exponential growth unlike any other that we have seen.

Brazil is a global threat


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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Misc.



In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions

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This week, as Brazil reported back-to-back record deaths from the virus, Bolsonaro welcomed allies for a lunch in Brasilia.
Misc.



The largely maskless group feasted on typical dishes, including beans with sausage and collard greens, plus a whole roast pig. 

The following day, the president raged against governors for creating panic in the population.

"You didn't stay home, you didn't cower," Bolsonaro told a crowd of supporters on Thursday. 

"We have to face our fears. No more fussiness, no more whining. Are people going to cry forever?"

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Brazil In Crisis: 'It Feels Like You Are In Stalingrad, in World War II' @NPR
Misc.




And on Wednesday, Brazil – second only to the U.S. in the number of people who have died – hit their highest death toll number recorded in a single day: more than 1,900.

The health-care system is about to collapse – even in Sao Paulo, Brazil's most populous city with the largest medical infrastructure in the country, Dr. Miguel Nicolelis, a Brazilian-born Duke University neuroscientist, told NPR's Mary Louise Kelly.

He describes a "horrible" situation with hospitals at full capacity, turning people away, with some left to die in ambulances or on the street. 

"They [hospitals] are refusing to take patients because they cannot find a bed in the ICU. So, let's say you have a heart attack or you have a stroke or you had a car accident ... people are actually dying, waiting for ICU bed."


Nicolelis says Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is to blame, calling him "public enemy number one in the world related to the comeback to the fight of the coronavirus."

"It feels like you are in Stalingrad, in World War II. You're surrounded by the enemy. Food is ending. There is no calling for help because nobody can get out to get help. And you just see your comrades dying, your friends, your parents, your relatives, your childhood friends."

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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Law & Politics






Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”




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10-MAY-2020 :: #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus [again]
Misc.




.@jairbolsonaro ''Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer''

“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian

Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative and COVID19 has ‟escape velocity‟ in Brazil.


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They don’t actually have ANY evidence for a “zoonotic origin”. @Daoyu15
Misc.


NO wild animal were ever tested positive from China—NO sample in the market, NO samples around the market, NO samples from the suppliers, NO samples from any animals anywhere in China domestic

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.1911

Dollar Index 91.992

Japan Yen 108.36

Swiss Franc 0.93169

Pound 1.3832

Aussie 0.7708

India Rupee 72.958

South Korea Won 1132.10

Brazil Real 5.6929

Egypt Pound 15.7013

South Africa Rand 15.34975

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A burgeoning Ethiopia-Eritrea-Somalia axis is resetting relations all over the Horn and undermining regional institutions @Africa_Conf
Africa



Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is fending off all pleas for mediation and accountability for human rights abuses committed during his campaign to defeat the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF). 

It's just one of the regional and international challenges he is determined to tough out, and for which he wants the strategic help of Eritrea, and to a lesser extent Somalia, say Ethiopian foreign policy experts.

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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa




Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.


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On November 30, instead of celebrating the religious festival of Saint Mary, Axumites spent the day burying their dead. “Our festival became a funeral,” one mourner told Human Rights Watch @mailandguardian @thecontinent_
Africa



The Ethiopian Orthodox festival of Tsion Maryam – Saint Mary – is an annual gathering of religious faithful, marking the day Ethiopians believe the Ark of the Covenant was brought to the country from Jerusalem. 

Congregants are often in flowing white robes, dancing and ululating in celebration, with food provided to mark the occasion.

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Something doesn’t add up In an embarrassing blunder, Uganda’s electoral commission has released a ‘genuine’ results form that appears to prove electoral fraud @mailandguardian @thecontinent_
Africa



“The doctored form is evidence that the election results are flawed,” Cheeseman told The Continent. 

“The figures were deliberately manipulated to make it look like Bobi Wine got less votes than he did.”

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Turning to Africa the Spinning Top
Africa



Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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Sonko arrest sets opposition and police on collision course @mailandguardian @thecontinent_
Africa



The case has transfixed the nation: Ousmane Sonko, the Senegalese opposition leader who finished third in the 2019 presidential election, stands accused of rape by an employee at a massage salon that he frequented.

The 46-year-old politician denies the charges, saying they are politically motivated, and his supporters agree.

On Wednesday, as Sonko’s motorcade made its way to court in Dakar, he was surrounded by hundreds of people singing and hooting horns in solidarity. But he never made it to the court. 

Some of his supporters threw stones at security forces, who responded with tear gas; shortly afterwards, Sonko was arrested again, for “disturbing public order and participating in an unauthorised demonstration”.


His arrest sparked further clashes – some of the most serious unrest seen in the capital in years, and on Friday authorities began restricting access to internet and social media, leaving Senegal looking increasingly fragile for a country known for its political stability.

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The people of #Senegal held one of the biggest protests ever today against the government of @Macky_Sall #FreeSenegal @Farida_N
Africa


The people of #Senegal held one of the biggest protests ever today against the government of @Macky_Sall who abducted opposition leader Ousman Sonko on his way to a court hearing a two days ago. Citizens are denouncing the instrumentalization of justice #FreeSenegal

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#BREAKING: Multiple major explosions rock Equatorial Guinea’s capital city of Bata. @UrgentAlertNews
Africa


#BREAKING: Multiple major explosions rock Equatorial Guinea’s capital city of Bata. Footage from the scene shows widespread damage. Power and internet services reportedly down over a large area.

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319,403 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData
Africa


-38.576% % below 520,000 record high from January 2021 

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Nigeria Introduces Incentives in Bid to Boost Remittance Inflows @markets
Africa


The Nigerian central bank will pay recipients who use formal channels to get U.S. dollars from abroad, in the latest move by authorities to increase the flow of remittances amid a shortage of hard currency.

Recipients will get 5 naira for every $1 they remit through licensed international money transfer operators and commercial banks, the central bank said in a circular published late on Friday. 

The program will run from March 8 till May 8.

The West African nation’s currency has been devalued twice since March last year after a sharp drop in oil sales and remittances from workers abroad led to a shortage of dollars. 

Measures by the central bank to bolster inflows and a rebound in oil prices could reduce pressure on the currency, which last traded at 411 per dollar at the exchange platform for investors and exporters known as Nafex.

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Mohadi’s magic hanky no match for hanky panky @mailandguardian @thecontinent_
Africa



In November 2016, Kembo Mohadi visited the self-proclaimed prophet Shepherd Bushiri, at Bushiri’s church in South Africa. 

At the time, Mohadi was Zimbabwe’s state security minister, but his prospects looked bleak: he appeared to be on the wrong side of the bitter race to succeed then-president Robert Mugabe.

But Bushiri had a reassuring message. The religious leader told Mohadi that he would be promoted, and would shortly be wearing a “crown”. 

He gave Mohadi a white handkerchief, and assured him that the piece of cloth would open new avenues, and provide protection.

The prophecy was soon fulfilled. Mugabe was toppled by a coup in November 2017. 

The new president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, appointed Mohadi as one of two vice-presidents. 

Unlike the other vice-president, Constantine Chiwenga, Mohadi had no political base of his own; what he offered instead was unconditional loyalty to Mnangagwa, along with his record as a liberation war hero.


But the white handkerchief appears to have lost its powers in the intervening years. 

Not only has Bushiri himself fallen from grace, after being charged with multiple counts of corruption; but this week Vice-President Mohadi was forced to resign in disgrace following the allegation that he was conducting not one but two extramarital affairs while in office.

The allegations were published by online media house ZimLive, and were supported by leaked voice recordings between the vice-president and one of his alleged lovers.

In his resignation letter, Mohadi maintained his innocence. “I am a victim of information distortion, voice cloning and sponsored spooking and political sabotage. Digital media, in their hybridity, have been abused by my enemies to blackmail me, but my spirit will never die,” he wrote

ZimLive editor Mduduzi Mathuthu stands by his story, and the authenticity of the recordings. 

“It will become clear that his claims of a political conspiracy by his enemies are just that – hot air,” he told The Continent.

President Mnangagwa has yet to appoint a replacement. 


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Bulawayo, “koNtuthu Ziyathunqa” (where smoke bellows) @mailandguardian @thecontinent_
Africa



Zimbabwe’s second largest city that has its roots in the Ndebele kingdom set up by King Mzilikazi in the mid- 19th century.

Traditional African cuisine is my favourite and Sis Bee’s Kitchen prepares their bream in a mouthwatering way that delights the palate; boiled or fried, it will leave you licking your fingers. 

It costs between $4 and $6 and it goes down well with isitshwala samabele (sorghum or millet pap).


For an additional $2 you can choose an extra side dish of vegetables such as ibhobola (pumpkin leaves) or ulude (Spider-wisp).

But, as they say, variety is the spice of life and on Sis Bee’s menu you can find other delicious dishes such as oxtail, meaty bones, offal, goat meat, biltong in peanut butter, nkukhu makhaya (free range chicken) and amasi (sour milk).

 When injiva are at home, every day is a party. In December merrymaking is the order of the day.

Majaivana speaks of being away from his homeland and his spirit longing for a return: umoya wami bo awusekho lapha khangela wena ukhatshana kontuthu ziyathunqa (my spirit is not here, it is very far in Bulawayo).


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Kenya credit rating downgraded to 'B' by Standard & Poor's on rising fiscal and external pressures. @Markbohlund
Kenyan Economy


Time to reverse the recent years' decrease in government-revenue-to-GDP, reduce the fiscal deficit and depreciate the shilling?

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' In our view, substantial revenue increases and expenditure rationalization will be difficult ahead of a planned constitutional referendum in 2021 and a general election in 2022 @Markbohlund
Kenyan Economy



I agree with S&P. ' In our view, substantial revenue increases and expenditure rationalization will be difficult ahead of a planned constitutional referendum in 2021 and a general election in 2022. We expect fiscal deficits to average 7.1% in 2021-2024 and reach 5.8% in FY2024.

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'Supported by an IMF program, the government will now attempt to widen the tax net and raise revenues as a percentage of GDP.' @Markbohlund
Kenyan Economy


'Supported by an IMF program, the government will now attempt to widen the tax net and raise revenues as a percentage of GDP. It will also likely try to address Kenya's generous tax exemption schemes (which by some estimates amount to lost revenues of up to 6% of GDP)...'

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.@CBKKenya foreign exchange reserves decline almost a quarter BILLION dollars week on week. @MihrThakar
Kenyan Economy


CBK foreign exchange reserves are on the verge of going below the East African Community region’s convergence criterion of 4.5 months of import cover. Massive decline of almost a quarter BILLION dollars week on week.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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