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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 03rd of March 2022

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But Wise Men Perceive Approaching Things Philostratus, Life of Apollonius of Tyana, VIII, 7.

Because gods perceive future things, men what is happening now,
   but wise men perceive approaching things.

Men know what is happening now.
The gods know the things of the future,
the full and sole possessors of all lights.
Of the future things, wise men perceive
approaching things. Their hearing

is sometimes, during serious studies,
disturbed. The mystical clamor
of approaching events reaches them.
And they heed it with reverence. While outside
on the street, the peoples hear nothing at all.Because gods perceive future things, men what is happening now,
   but wise men perceive approaching things.

     Philostratus, Life of Apollonius of Tyana, VIII, 7.

Men know what is happening now.
The gods know the things of the future,
the full and sole possessors of all lights.
Of the future things, wise men perceive
approaching things. Their hearing

is sometimes, during serious studies,
disturbed. The mystical clamor
of approaching events reaches them.
And they heed it with reverence. While outside
on the street, the peoples hear nothing at all.

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The World in the c21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops

September 1, 1939 by W. H. Auden comes to mind

Waves of anger and fear
Circulate over the bright
And darkened lands of the earth,
Obsessing our private lives;
The unmentionable odour of death

Into this neutral air
Where blind skyscrapers use
Their full height to proclaim
The strength of Collective Man,
Each language pours its vain
Competitive excuse:
But who can live for long
In an euphoric dream;
Out of the mirror they stare,

Faces along the bar
Cling to their average day:
The lights must never go out,
The music must always play

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I steal into their dreams, he said. ― Roberto Bolaño, 2666

"I steal into their most shameful thoughts, I'm in every shiver, every spasm of their souls, I steal into their hearts, I scrutinize their most fundamental beliefs, I scan their irrational impulses, their unspeakable emotions, I sleep in their lungs during the summer and their muscles during the winter, and all of this I do without the least effort, without intending to, without asking or seeking it out, without constraints, driven only by love and devotion.”
― Roberto Bolaño, 2666

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I think Ukraine’s darkest days are ahead of them, tragically, Hoffman said. “So, Vladimir Putin, he's going to burn down Ukraine’s house. @YahooNews
Law & Politics

I think Ukraine's darkest days are ahead of them, tragically. I will tell you that this isn't the Vladimir Putin I was tracking back in the day at CIA. He's a different guy. He won a lot of wars — a brutal war in Chechnya. He invaded Georgia in 2008, but didn't try to take Tbilisi. He invaded Ukraine in '14 and annexed Crimea, and invaded the Donbas, and kind of settled on a frozen conflict there.

All those things were, Vladimir Putin playing chess with limited but achievable objectives. This one Vladimir Putin has altered his risk calculus. He's playing poker where he might not have the strongest hand. But I am deeply fearful we're going to see something like Grozny or Aleppo where Russia goes scorched earth, because they have failed, utterly failed, thus far.

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The three major waves (so far) @greg_travis

* Wuhan: 267 days, 800 deaths/day avg
* Alpha: 261 days, 1,500 deaths/day avg
* Delta/Omicron: 239 days (so far), 1,500 deaths/day avg

Each wave has been as bad as the one before or worse

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1096
Dollar Index 97.504
Japan Yen 115.71
Swiss Franc 0.919625
Pound 1.3400
Aussie 0.731585
India Rupee 75.7575
South Korea Won 1205.935
Brazil Real 5.1003
Egypt Pound 15.7267
South Africa Rand 15.3248

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How the Russia-Ukraine War Threatens the Dollar's Dominance @markets
World Currencies

@CreditSuisse  strategist tells Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast that the U.S. dollar has reached a critical inflection point. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could mark the beginning of a turning point for the U.S. dollar, according to money market guru Zoltan Pozsar.

Speaking on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, the global head of short-term interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse AG noted that wars tend to turn into major junctures for global currenciesand with Russia losing access to its foreign currency reserves, a message has been sent to all countries that they can’t count on these money stashes to actually be theirs in the event of tensionAs such, it may make less and less sense for global reserve managers to hold dollars for safety, given that they could be taken away right when they’re most needed.

Russia isn’t the first country to get this lesson in recent months. The Biden administration’s move to seize Afghanistan’s cash assets and prevent their access by the Taliban was another recent signal that reserves can be frozen.

Pozsar argues that this recognition may encourage central banks to diversify away from the dollar, or try to re-anchor their currencies to assets that are less susceptible to influence from U.S. or European governmentsAs such, recent tensions could usher in a new monetary order in which countries are far less interconnected through international bank accounts and reserves.

Different kinds of money
At issue are the types of money held by governments, which Pozsar divides into two categories: inside money and outside moneyMost of the world’s money is inside money, meaning it’s money that you’re owed.  The number you see on your bank account doesn’t represent some kind of cash deposit in a vault somewhere. It’s simply a promise from the bank to you that it will pay you that amount should you need it. The same concept applies at the sovereign scale. 

Outside money, on the other hand, isn’t someone else’s liability. For an individual, that could be physical cash or even BitcoinFor a country, like in Russia’s case, that could be gold. As of January, Russia held over $120 billion worth of gold, more than its actual dollar-denominated holdings. Now, given the loss of access to its dollars and euros, gold is effectively its primary holding. And Pozsar sees a potential for the ruble to become de facto, or literally, backed by gold. 

“Most FX reserves that exist in the world today are all forms of inside money, i.e. they are the liabilities of someone,” Pozsar said on Odd Lots. “Whether you hold the sovereign debt of a country, or you keep a deposit at a central bank of a foreign country, or if you keep deposits at Western financial institutions, these are all forms of inside money that you don't control. Someone owes it to you. And these things can be sanctioned.”

“If a central bank is in a situation like this and the currency’s under pressure, would it ever come to having to re-anchor your currency to something? Like gold? I think these are all questions that should be top of mind,” he added. “I don't know if it'll come to that, but if things get worse, you could basically re-anchor the ruble to a pile of gold because you need an anchor in situations like this.”

Pozsar’s not alone in his warnings about the dollar's vulnerability, with others seeing the same forces at play in the fate of the currency’s reserve status. Dylan Grice, the former Societe Generale strategist who’s since founded Calderwood Capital, described the recent moves as a “weaponization” of money. “You only get to play the card once,” he tweeted. “China will make it a priority to need no USD before going for Taiwan. It’s a turning point in monetary history.”

Steven Englander, a Managing Director at Standard Chartered Bank, echoed the idea. 

“It’s a very long-term thing, so nothing immediate or even say on a two- to three-year basis, but if what we are seeing is a demonstration of the power of economic and financial force, the logical response if there is a risk that you will be on the receiving end is to see what you can do to immunize yourself,” he said. “Weirdly enough there may be a second response – what essentials is your potential economic foe importing from you and what can you do to have the maximum impact on their economy and least on yours.”

Delinking from the dollar
To some extent, Russia has already recognized and reacted to the ‘inside-outside money’ framework described by Pozsar, working in recent years to reduce its holdings of U.S. dollar-denominated assets — including selling off all of its U.S. Treasuries in 2018 according to official data — and amassing its hefty pile of shiny rocks.

“In a competitive game, where your currency holdings are issued by an adversary and can be frozen or vaporized at that adversary’s discretion… Global trade and the accumulation of FX reserves makes … less sense.”

For years, the fate of dollar dominance has been a popular and contentious source of discussion with repeated warnings and terrible predictions about the currency’s demise. If anything, however, what’s surprised people is the growing strength of the greenback. At the 2019 Jackson Hole Symposium, then-Bank of England-chief Mark Carney delivered a speech on the problematic strength of the dollar, and the fact that while the U.S. accounted for a smaller and smaller share of the global economy, the dollar itself is as significant as when the Bretton Woods arrangement collapsed.

There were also numerous warnings about the dollar’s demise in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, but if anything that period saw a strengthened greenback as the Federal Reserve took on an even more globalized role in helping to bail out the world’s financial systems.

There’s another problem facing countries with large amounts of reserves that no longer want to hold them in dollar-denominated assets: They’ll need to find something else to buy, and the pool of potential suitable assets could be limited. While gold is the obvious candidate, there’s only so much of it available (one reason why the rise of central banks’ collective dollar holdings has easily surpassed those of gold in recent years).

Others have floated the idea of Asian currencies or bonds. However, these markets are far smaller and much less liquid than U.S. or European ones, making it difficult for countries like Russia or China to stash their cash in these assets.

Still, it's hard to compete with the dollar, said Cameron Crise, a macro strategist for Bloomberg. “It’s not clear that anyone other than the United States has both the ability and the will to ‘manufacture’ safe assets and sell them to foreigners as the bedrock of a global financial system.”

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Wheat exports by #Russia and #Ukraine in Africa @lupollichieni

Global food markets are but the perturbation of a butterflys's wing away from a serious tipping point. @csmonitor By Aly-Khan Satchu, September 6, 2010

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@StanbicKE reports FY 2021 EPS +38.84% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           95.25
Total Shares Issued:          395321638.00
Market Capitalization:        37,654,386,020
EPS:              18.23 
PE:                 5.224

Stanbic Holdings reports FY Earnings through 31st December 2021 versus 31st December 2020

FY 2021 Assets 328.871809b versus 328.594515b

FY Loans and Advances 229.321277b versus 196.300029b

FY Deposits from Banks & Customers 254.588381b versus 259.970053b

FY Total Liabilities 272.418782b versus 276.863559b

FY Net Interest Income 14.373200b versus 12.795161b

FY Non Interest Revenue 10.616945b versus 10.442209b

FY Total Income 24.990145b versus 23.237370b

FY Credit Impairment charges [2.523546b] versus [4.875692b]

FY Income after impairment charges 22.466599b versus 18.361678b

FY Total operating expenses [12.710860b] versus [12.134524b]

FY Profit before Taxation 9.755739b versus 6.227154b

FY Profit after taxation 7.208090b versus 5.192240b

FY EPS 18.23 versus 13.13 +38.84%

FY Dividend 9.00 versus 3.80 

a final dividend of Kenya Shillings seven and thirty cents (Kshs 7.30) having paid an interim dividend of Kenya Shillings one and seventy cents (Kshs 1.70) for each ordinary share of Kshs 5 on the issued and paid up share capital of the Company. 



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.@KenGenKenya reports HY EPS +1.29% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           3.90
Total Shares Issued:          6243873667.00
Market Capitalization:        24,351,107,301
EPS:             0.18
PE:                 21.667

HY ended 31st December 2021 versus HY ended 31st December 2020

HY Revenue 24.793b versus 21.801b +14% 

HY Revenue reimbursable expenses 20.639b versus 20.567b

Financial Assets 0.603b versus [0.382b]

HY Expenses 

HY Depreciation and amortization [5.882b] versus [5.738b]

HY Operating Expenses [6.595b] versus [5.825b]

HY Steam costs [1.654b] versus [1.527b]

HY Operating Profit 7.408b versus 7.275b

HY Profit before Tax 7.520b 6.872b +9.00%

HY Profit after Tax 5.121b versus 5.055b

HY EPS 0.78 versus 0.77

Cash at End of Period 15.847b versus 10.793b


Corporate tax reversal from 25% back to 30%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2022

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