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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 22nd of June 2022
 
Morning
Africa

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W. H. AUDEN @holdengraber
Misc.

W. H. AUDEN @holdengraber

“But once in a while the odd thing happens,
Once in a while the dream comes true,
And the whole pattern of life is altered,
Once in a while the moon turns blue.”

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Ukrainian shelling of Snake Island yesterday. This is a screenshot from the video showing the bombing of the island on May 7th by 2 Ukrainian aircraft. @OAlexanderDK
Law & Politics


Ukrainian shelling of Snake Island yesterday. This is a screenshot from the video showing the bombing of the island on May 7th by 2 Ukrainian aircraft. @OAlexanderDK

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Putin has fashioned an extraordinary even parabolic rebound in Russia's geoeconomic and geopolitical position over the last two decades.
Law & Politics


Putin has fashioned an extraordinary even parabolic rebound in Russia's geoeconomic and geopolitical position over the last two decades.

[“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola.''] 

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Moscow's emerging reprisal against Europe's hybrid war against it, the nearly 50% cut in gas supplies making EU states vulnerable to wintertime weaponization of Russian supplies. @Chellaney
Law & Politics

Moscow's emerging reprisal against Europe's hybrid war against it, the nearly 50% cut in gas supplies making EU states vulnerable to wintertime weaponization of Russian supplies. @Chellaney



As a first step in Moscow's emerging reprisal against Europe's hybrid war against it, the nearly 50% cut in gas supplies disrupts the EU plan to hoard ample gas in its vast underground storage network, making EU states vulnerable to wintertime weaponization of Russian supplies.


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German industry body slashes forecast, warns of recession if Russian gas halted @Reuters
Law & Politics


German industry body slashes forecast, warns of recession if Russian gas halted @Reuters 


Germany's BDI industry association slashed its economic forecast for 2022 on Tuesday and said a halt in Russian gas deliveries would make recession inevitable in Europe's largest economy.
German gross domestic product is now expected to grow by 1.5%, rather than the 3.5% forecast given before war broke out in Ukraine, the BDI said, adding that a return to pre-crisis levels is not expected before the end of the year at the soonest.
The IWH economic research institute, which is part of a group of institutes that advise the German government, also slashed its forecast to 1.5% on Tuesday.

In March it had predicted growth of 3.1%.
The institute predicted that summer would be particularly difficult for the economy, with manufacturing hit by supply bottlenecks and inflation dampening private consumption.
Other institutes have also lowered their estimates, with ifo cutting its 2022 forecast last week to 2.5% from 3.1% and IfW leaving its forecast at 2.1%.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.049770
Dollar Index 104.088
Japan Yen 136.2340 
Swiss Franc 0.96799
Pound 1.223585
Aussie 0.69202 
India Rupee 78.1652 
South Korea Won 1296.565
Brazil Real 5.1257
Egypt Pound 18.739401 
South Africa Rand 15.988900

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May 29 It is also clear that Putin is seeking a quid pro quo between easing the Food situation with a removal of sanctions.
Commodities



May 29 It is also clear that Putin is seeking a quid pro quo between easing the Food situation with a removal of sanctions. 


The UNFAO Food Index sits just under a record reached in March this year. 

Liz Truss accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of holding the world to ransom over food, responding to a question about whether she supported lifting sanctions in exchange for grain exports from Ukraine.

"What we cannot have is any lifting of sanctions, any appeasement, which will simply make Putin stronger in the longer term," Truss said.

The Question is whether there is an appetite for a quid pro quo because if there is not, then we are going to see another serious spike. 

When everything is financialized, everything can be managed and controlled. (Until it can't.) @TFMetals


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Democratic Republic of Congo's army has been locked in heavy fighting since late May with the M23 rebel group, which is waging its most sustained offensive since a 2012-2013 insurrection that seized vast swathes of territory. @Reuters
Africa


Democratic Republic of Congo's army has been locked in heavy fighting since late May with the M23 rebel group, which is waging its most sustained offensive since a 2012-2013 insurrection that seized vast swathes of territory. @Reuters


Last week, the M23 captured the strategic town of Bunagana on the border with Uganda and shot down a Congolese army helicopter.
The heads of state from the seven members of the East African Community (EAC), including Congo and Rwanda, met in Nairobi on Monday to discuss the potential deployment of a regional military force to eastern Congo to provide security.

M23 fighters seized vast swathes of the eastern Congo countryside in 2012 and briefly captured Goma, a city of 1 million people, before being driven the following year into Rwanda and Uganda by Congo's army and U.N. peacekeepers.

Congo's latest accusations have led to angry denials by Kigali. Rwanda has, in turn, accused Congo of firing rockets into its territory and fighting alongside the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), an ethnic Hutu militia.
Congo denies this.
The latest flashpoint was on Friday, when a Congolese soldier crossed into Rwanda from Goma and opened fire, injuring two Rwandan police officers, before being killed, according to Rwanda's military. 

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In the market in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, grain sellers all told us the same story. The price has shot up by 75% in three months. @SkyNews
Africa


In the market in Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, grain sellers all told us the same story. The price has shot up by 75% in three months. @SkyNews

As if that is not disastrous enough, the price of fuel has almost doubled, making it more expensive to get grain to those who need it.
In the world's second poorest country, water comes to most people by trucks filling tanks on the street.

 Water is more scarce in the drought but much more expensive too because of the cost of fuel, up by 60%.

"My grandfather was a goatherd," she told Sky News. "My father was a goatherd, I grew up in that life and ended up with 500 goats and four camels and they've all been wiped out, I've got nothing now."

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"Our intention is to renegotiate the debt and make them long term so that we are able to meet our obligations," Karua said. Reuters
Kenyan Economy


"Our intention is to renegotiate the debt and make them long term so that we are able to meet our obligations," Karua said. Reuters



But public debt has more than tripled by 7 trillion shillings ($61.32 billion) since Kenyatta assumed office in 2013, pushing against the nation's debt ceiling.

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Most banks are now selling a dollar at between 123 and 126 units of the local currency while buying the greenback at 111 to 116 units of the Kenya Shilling. @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

The rates at which most customers are buying the dollar are substantially higher than the officially published mean of Sh117.4.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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