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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 28th of July 2022
 
Morning
Africa

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“Is it safe?”
World Of Finance

In the movie Marathon Man [directed by John Schlesinger] Laurence Olivier who plays Dr. Christian Szell a Nazi war criminal straps Dustin Hoffman into a dentist's chair and without any anaesthetic starts drilling into Hoffman's mouth


“Is it safe?”

“Yes, it’s safe. Very safe. So safe you wouldn’t believe it.”
[long pause]
“Is it safe?”
“No. It’s not safe. It’s very dangerous. Be careful.”
That Snippet from that Film seems to me the perfect accompaniment preferably on an eternal loop to the World and the markets we find ourselves in today.
''We are off to Moscow off to Moscow we go to Regime Change The Wicked Witch of the West [or is it the East?] aka Vladimir Putin''
Nancy Pelosi has pronounced She is going further East all the way to Taiwan because real Men and Women go to China and Nancy fancies a Pop at ''Pooh Bear'' 

and meanwhile Xi has salami sliced his way and snaffled up Hong Kong and Nancy could provide him with the perfect excuse for a Taiwan casus Belli.

“Is it safe?” some of Us ask.
At the end of last week we saw a chink in the ''whatever it takes'' [to bring inflation down] Narrative. 
[The] Hike cycle terminal rate cruised lower to 3.28 (Orange) vs 3.49 last week (Blue) @Fullcarry.

The Dollar index came off the boil @dma_2022

and even the seriously beaten up Frontier Eurobond Index managed a small rebound.
After the #ECB hiked rates by 50bps, German 10y declined from >1.3% to almost 1% in a matter of 24h. German 2y down to 0.4%. @COdendahl

When I was a lot younger we used to play a Game called ''Red Eye'' Everyone gets a card and everyone else's card is visible to you except your own. And you bet on that basis. 

The Question is whether if this were a Game of Red Eye and the market has now seen that Powell and Lagarde are holding the 2 of spades and that this hiking cycle is near done. 

If that is the case, the Yen is a screaming Buy and the Dollar a Big Sell.
I do not expect Inflation to crash, however, which is a Caveat Emptor to this thesis and therefore the risk of Weimarisation is material.



Marathon Man - Dustin Hoffman “Is it Safe” - Laurence Olivier as Dr. Christian Szell @carlquintanilla via @Sergiofordy



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Iranians at Andy Warhol's portraits of Mick Jagger in Tehran's Museum of modern art
Misc.


 Iranians at Andy Warhol's portraits of Mick Jagger in Tehran's Museum of modern art

 “His selection of colors is outstanding and to me conveys a combination of feelings such as melancholy and mortality.”

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Apocalypse Now The moment we find ourselves is in is one of extreme stress and complexity.
World Of Finance

Apocalypse Now The moment we find ourselves is in is one of extreme stress and complexity. 

The Geopolitical fault line is most visible in Ukraine and therefore at the European periphery, however, fault lines are emerging all over the global landscape and exhibiting multiple feedback loops, which feedback loops all have viral and exponential characteristics.

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What is @ZelenskyyUa doing? A photoshoot with his wife for glamorous @voguemagazine @LucyGatsby
Law & Politics


What is @ZelenskyyUa  doing? A photoshoot with his wife for glamorous @voguemagazine @LucyGatsby
A complete loss of sovereignty, a poor country, currency devaluation, a third of agricultural land sold to US corporations, the last grain is exported. 

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May 29 Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity
Law & Politics



May 29 Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity



Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher,
vanity of vanities! All is vanity.
A generation goes, and a generation comes,
but the earth remains forever.
The sun rises, and the sun goes down,
and hastens[b] to the place where it rises.
What has been is what will be,
and what has been done is what will be done,
and there is nothing new under the sun.
Is there a thing of which it is said,
“See, this is new”?
It has been already
in the ages before us.
There is no remembrance of former things,[c]
nor will there be any remembrance
of later things[d] yet to be
among those who come after.
Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 11 [1]

Blofeld: Kronsteen, you are sure this plan is foolproof?
Kronsteen: Yes it is, because I have anticipated every possible variation of counter-move.
Politics therefore suffers from a surfeit of narcissists.

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The real Zelensky! Leaps out of the Russian Romantic writer, poet and painter Mikhail Lermontov's classic A Hero of Our Time. @BhadraPunchline
Law & Politics


The real Zelensky! Leaps out of the Russian Romantic writer, poet and painter Mikhail Lermontov's classic A Hero of Our Time. @BhadraPunchline

Pechorin was one of the first European characters of contradiction. Zelensky belongs to that genre!

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US army war college quarterly 1997. The US officer charged with defining the future of warfare, wrote One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the conflict between information masters and information victims
Law & Politics


US army war college quarterly 1997. The US officer charged with defining the future of warfare, wrote One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the conflict between information masters and information victims

This information warfare will not be couched in the rationale of geopolitics, the author suggests, but will be “spawned” - like any Hollywood drama - out of raw emotions.

“Hatred, jealousy, and greed - emotions, rather than strategy - will set the terms of [information warfare] struggles”.

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Biden’s Taiwan Strategy Is Flawed Whether @SpeakerPelosi Goes or Not @opinion @HalBrands
Law & Politics


Biden’s Taiwan Strategy Is Flawed Whether @SpeakerPelosi  Goes or Not @opinion @HalBrands 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to go to Taiwan, to demonstrate solidarity with that besieged democracy. 

The Chinese government would prefer she didn’t, and President Joe Biden — worried about finding himself in a major crisis in the Western Pacific — apparently agrees.
In one sense, this controversy over Pelosi’s proposed visit is just part of the standard arm-wrestling between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan’s place in the world. 

But there may also be something deeper in Biden’s anxiety about a potential Taiwan crisis: a realization that America’s China policy is courting dangers the US isn’t ready to handle.

High-level US visits to Taiwan (and vice versa) have long caused diplomatic dustups, because Washington does not consider Taiwan an independent country and Beijing is determined to limit that island’s international stature. 

The last major military crisis over Taiwan, in 1995-96, erupted after President Bill Clinton’s administration chose (under heavy congressional pressure) to grant Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui a visa so he could deliver a speech at Cornell University.

Prior to a trip by Environmental Protection Agency administrator Gina McCarthy in 2014, no cabinet-level official had visited Taiwan for more than a decade. 

When President Donald Trump sent Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar to Taipei in 2020, China punched back by sending fighter jets streaking across the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
The diplomatic tension over Taiwan has intensified. China is determined to squeeze the international space available to the Taipei government, perhaps as a prelude to forcing unification. 

The US and other democracies are expanding military, economic and diplomatic ties with the island, to shore up its international legitimacy and warn China against pushing harder.

This contest is now interacting with the internal workings of China’s autocratic political system: 

Taiwan may be an area where President Xi Jinping can’t afford to look weak as he seeks a third term in office at a congress of the Chinese Communist Party this fall.

While US legislators travel to Taiwan on a regular basis, a trip by Pelosi — who is second in the line of succession for the presidency — would be the highest-profile visit since a previous House speaker, Newt Gingrich, went there in 1997

The Chinese government has warned that it would take “strong measures” in response.
Almost no one believes that Beijing would actually shoot down Pelosi’s plane, as she speculated. 

But it could send fighter jets to “escort” her, ramp up military exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait, mount intrusions into Taiwan’s airspace or punish Taipei with economic sanctions.
To hedge against these possibilities, the Pentagon might need to move additional military assets into the region. 

This fear of spiraling tensions is presumably why Biden commented that “the military” believes Pelosi’s trip is a bad idea.
Even so, this seems like a strangely accommodating posture for Biden to take. 

He has repeatedly said that the US should help Taiwan defend itself. 

He has argued that America must stand with the world’s democracies against autocratic aggression.
The problem is that Washington’s China rhetoric has overtaken its China policy, and the US is badly positioned for a prospective crisis over Taiwan. 

For a half-decade, American leaders from both parties have labeled China the supreme challenge of our era. But across many issues, the response has been uninspiring.
American trade policy toward Asia was absent under Trump and continues to disappoint under Biden: 

His Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is more notable for what it lacks, namely expanded access to the US market for allies and friends, than what it contains. 

Proposals to form a united democratic front against Chinese economic coercion have mostly gone nowhere.
Congress is finally poised to pay for major investments in semiconductor production and scientific research, but only after the measure had languished for a year. 

Despite some constructive steps by the Trump and Biden administrations, American money still flows into companies with ties to China’s military and human rights abuses.
What about defense? Leading U.S. officials have called the preservation of a free Taiwan critical to the balance of power in the Western Pacific. 

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines has warned that the threat of a Chinese assault has become “critical.” Yet America’s defense program seems desultory in comparison.
Despite record-breaking domestic spending, the Biden administration has twice requested defense budgets that grow less than the rate of inflation; it has struggled to find a few billion dollars for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, initiated last year by the Pentagon at Congress’s insistence.

The military is reportedly consumed — again — with disputes over what sort of Navy the US should have a generation from now, as China churns out vessels apace. 

And thanks to decisions made across several presidencies, the US has a military equipped for only one war at a time — meaning that, amid a protracted proxy war in Ukraine, Washington is bound to be on its back foot if mayhem erupts elsewhere.

A country whose proclaimed willingness to compete exceeds its actual willingness to keep pace with its rival will eventually find the worst kind of trouble. 

A test of strength over Taiwan is coming, and America is perilously ill-prepared. 

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1-4-2-1
Law & Politics




1-4-2-1

1-4-2-1. The first 1 refers to defending what has since come to be called the homeland. 

The 4 refers to deterring hostilities in four key regions of the world. 

The 2 means the U.S. armed forces must have the strength to win swiftly in two near-simultaneous conflicts in those regions. 

The final 1 means that we must win one of those conflicts “decisively,” toppling the enemy’s regime.



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EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: @JavierBlas
World Of Finance


EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: @JavierBlas

Front-month TTF trading >€200 per MWh
Cal-23 TTF sets record high >€155 per MWh
Cal-24 TTF sets record high at €91 per MWh

German 1-year power at record high €380 per MWh
French 1-year power at record high €505 per MWh

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Collapse! No economy can sustain these hits. So, Uniper is bailed out and then their industrial customers will be bailed and then the retail customers and the government itself. @Jorgecomments
World Of Finance


Collapse! No economy can sustain these hits. So, Uniper is bailed out and then their industrial customers will be bailed and then the retail customers and the government itself. @Jorgecomments

Collapse! No economy can sustain these hits. So, Uniper is bailed out and then their industrial customers will be bailed and then the retail customers and the government itself. Rationing, inflation and bail outs. Pretty much what happened when communist Russia collapsed

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Europe Is Faking Solidarity, and Putin Knows It @opinion @AndreasKluth
World Of Finance


Europe Is Faking Solidarity, and Putin Knows It  @opinion  @AndreasKluth 

The 27 national leaders of the European Union love to extol the solidarity that binds their countries together. 

Even the words signal destiny. “Union” comes via French from the Latin unus for “one,” and solidarity from solidus for “firm, whole and undivided.” 

Like a good marriage, the bloc is meant to be a solidarity union.
In reality, it is no such thing, and Europe’s enemies know it. 

That includes Russian President Vladimir Putin and autocrats in China and afield. 

The EU’s biggest problem is the inability to see threats, responsibilities and sacrifices as shared.

Right now, the nail-biting is about Putin — both his physical warfare against Ukraine and his hybrid warfare against the EU. His weapon of choice is energy. 

Putin spent two decades making the EU vulnerable — that is, dependent on Russian natural gas and other hydrocarbons — by building a network of pipelines to gullible nations such as Germany. 

This year, following his invasion of Ukraine in February, he’s cocked these weapons and put his finger on the trigger.
In early summer, he throttled the gas flowing through Nord Stream 1, a big pipeline from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, to 60% of its capacity.  This week, he further reduced that to 20%. He could turn it down more, or off. 

As a result, Europe’s storage tanks will be emptier than they should be going into winter. 

Putin is threatening to make Europeans shiver in unheated homes, and to force swathes of Europe’s industry to shut down. 

As in any of its crises, the question for the EU is what to do about this mess. So the countries most affected — led by Germany in this case — are invoking that famous sense of solidarity.

Last week, the European Commission proposed that the entire bloc voluntarily reduce its gas consumption by 15%, with mandatory cuts to follow if necessary. The reaction was inevitable, understandable — and hardly reassuring. 

Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and several other member states don’t rely on Russian gas, and therefore aren’t really at much risk. 

Moreover, any gas savings they foist on their own companies and consumers wouldn’t help Germans, because there are no pipelines to carry spare gas from Madrid or Malta, say, to Bavaria or Berlin. So why should they say “yes” to coerced rationing?
And besides, doesn’t Germany bear responsibility? Many Europeans spent years warning Berlin against building two Baltic pipelines to Russia, and against simultaneously exiting nuclear power. 

Smugly, Germany ignored its partners and pooh-poohed the threat emanating from the Kremlin. Germans asking Spaniards to take shorter showers now seems a bit rich.
And hypocritical. A decade ago, during the euro crisis, the roles were reversed. Financial turmoil that had started in the US caused selloffs in the debt securities of member states like Greece, Spain and Portugal — even threatening an involuntary Grexit. 

But when these countries asked for solidarity from Germany and other northern countries, they instead got lectures on the evils of their profligacy for having borrowed too much in the first place.
The EU was no more enthusiastic about showing solidarity in 2015-16, when more than a million refugees crossed from Turkey to Greece, itself still reeling from the euro crisis. 

Some member states — including Germany — offered help, but others — led by Poland and Hungary — balked.  
Ditto in 2020, when SARS-CoV-2 showed up. The instinctive reflex of member states was to slam their borders shut — even for masks and medical gear — turning the EU’s vaunted “single market” into a travesty. 

Europeans then came perilously close to fighting over vaccines. Eventually, Brussels got its act together, but Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, admitted that “we caught a glimpse of the abyss” — that is, an unraveling of the EU.
And what if the invaders were Russian soldiers instead of viruses? Given the EU’s track record, member states on the front line will be forgiven for finding talk about a “European Army” risible. 

Would the Dutch, Italians and Germans send their sons and daughters to die defending Estonians, Latvians or Poles? Yes, is the answer.

 But that’s because they’re in NATO and backed by the US, not because they’re in the EU and high on solidarity.
The major powers of the world understand this weakness of the EU. 

Europe’s friends in Washington worry about it; its foes in Moscow and Beijing try to exploit it. 

To add to the EU’s internal strife, Turkey and Belarus, for example, have tried to concoct renewed refugee crises.
European leaders are just as aware, and therefore want to de-emphasize the vulnerability. 

Take German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In praising Europe’s “unity,” he doth protest too much. Betraying how little he thinks there is of it, he immediately segues to demanding the end of national vetoes and “individual member states egotistically blocking European decisions.” He had Hungary in mind just then, but others feel that way about Germany. 

As is their wont, the EU 27 this week settled their latest spat about gas savings in the usual way: They fudged and wangled a compromise. Gas will be saved — somewhere, somehow — but so many countries will have opt-outs, loopholes and exceptions that you’d need a magnifying glass to find the solidarity. 

Putin saw nothing in Brussels this week to make him nervous. 

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May 29 Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity
World Of Finance



The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble.

At a time when what is required is agile multi disciplinary thinking we have ''weaponized babble''


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ


Euro 1.019120


Dollar Index 106.394


Japan Yen 135.7265 
Swiss Franc 0.96005 
Pound 1.216540
Aussie 0.698960
India Rupee 79.78005
South Korea Won 1302.335 
Brazil Real 5.2443000 
Egypt Pound 18.919100 
South Africa Rand 16.73630 

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Wheat prices are back to pre-war levels, a relief for frontier markets, but dollar bond spreads aren't. @SergiLanauIIF
Frontier Markets


Wheat prices are back to pre-war levels, a relief for frontier markets, but dollar bond spreads aren't. @SergiLanauIIF

Wheat prices are back to pre-war levels, a relief for frontier markets, but dollar bond spreads aren't. Softer commodity prices due to recession fears aren't a clear positive for current account deficit FMs. Several external financing gaps will pop up in coming months.

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Presenting Russia as a respectful friend to Africa, as opposed to overbearing Western powers with a colonial mindset, was a leitmotif of Lavrov's remarks
Africa


 Presenting Russia as a respectful friend to Africa, as opposed to overbearing Western powers with a colonial mindset, was a leitmotif of Lavrov's remarks 

Lavrov was in Addis Ababa wrapping up a four-nation African tour aimed at drumming up support for Moscow at a time of confrontation with Western powers over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Lavrov described African countries trying to define their own futures and solve their own problems as part of a trend towards a multipolar world which he accused the West of opposing in its pursuit of U.S. hegemony.

He expanded on the theme during a half-hour speech to diplomats at the Russian embassy in Addis Ababa in which he presented the Russian government's positions on Ukraine and international relations in general.
"I am sure the overwhelming majority of world countries do not want to live as if the colonial times (have) come back," he said.
The Russian embassy declined to say which ambassadors had been invited to the event. 

Questions were asked by diplomats from South Sudan, Algeria and Pakistan before Lavrov left.

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From Russia with Love
Africa


From Russia with Love

“Our African agenda is positive and future-oriented. We do not ally with someone against someone else, and we strongly oppose any geopolitical games involving Africa.”

“Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov back in November 2018.

Andrew Korybko writes Moscow invaluably fills the much-needed niche of providing its partners there with “Democratic Security”, or in other words, the cost-effective and low-commitment capabilities needed to thwart colour revolutions and resolve unconventional Wars (collectively referred to as Hybrid War).
To simplify, Russia’s “political technologists” have reportedly devised bespoke solutions for confronting in- cipient and ongoing color revolutions, just like its private military contractors (PMCs) have supposedly done the same when it comes to ending insurgencies.

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Isolate Russia? Nobody Told the Global South @business
Africa


Isolate Russia? Nobody Told the Global South @business


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov might have expected a rough ride on his tour of Africa this week. Instead he’s being welcomed with open arms.

The reality is that despite US and European efforts to isolate the Kremlin for its aggression — including a blockade of Ukrainian ports and attacks on grain warehouses that have pinched the global food supply — Russia and its key ally, China, continue to have friends around the world.
The reasons are many and varied, from economic and educational ties to a sense of selective western intervention in global crises, fueling charges of hypocrisy.

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Zimbabwe has released the first 2,000 of its "Mosi-oa-Tunya" gold coins, which are intended as a store of value amid soaring inflation. @D_J_Doyle @ReutersAfrica
Africa

Zimbabwe has released the first 2,000 of its "Mosi-oa-Tunya" gold coins, which are intended as a store of value amid soaring inflation. @D_J_Doyle @ReutersAfrica

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Ghana confirms first cases of deadly Marburg virus @BBC
Africa


Ghana confirms first cases of deadly Marburg virus @BBC 

Ghana has confirmed its first two cases of the deadly Marburg virus, a highly infectious disease in the same family as the virus that causes Ebola.

It says both patients died recently in hospital in the southern Ashanti region.
Their samples came back positive earlier this month and have now been verified by a laboratory in Senegal.
Health officials in the West African nation say 98 people are now under quarantine as suspected contact cases.
These include relatives, medics and mortuary workers who came into contact with the two patients.
This is the second time that Marburg has been identified in West Africa. 

There was one confirmed case in Guinea last year, but that outbreak was declared over in September, five weeks after the case was discovered.

The virus killed more than 200 people in Angola in 2005, the deadliest outbreak on record according to the global health body.
The first ever Marburg outbreak was in Germany in 1967 where seven people died.

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To this day, the natural reservoir of Marburg is unknown. Marburg lives somewhere in the shadow of Mt. Elgon. Crisis in the Hot Zone Lessons from an outbreak of Ebola. Richard Preston
Africa


To this day, the natural reservoir of Marburg is unknown. Marburg lives somewhere in the shadow of Mt. Elgon. Crisis in the Hot Zone Lessons from an outbreak of Ebola. Richard Preston

The first known emergence of a filovirus happened in August, 1967, in Marburg, Germany. 

A shipment of green monkeys from Uganda had arrived in Frankfurt. 
Green-monkey kidney cells are useful for the production of vaccines, and these monkeys were going to be killed for their kidneys. 
Marburg began with a splitting headache, focussed behind the eyes and temples. 
That was followed by a fever. The characteristic diagnostic sign was a red speckled rash over the body which blistered into a sea of tiny white bubbles. 

“Most of the patients showed a sullen, slightly aggressive, or negativistic behavior,” Martini wrote. “Two patients [had] a feeling as if they were lying on crumbs.” 
One became deranged and psychotic. These mental signs were caused by the virus’s having damaged the brain. 
The patient Hans O.-V. showed no signs of mental change, but he suffered a sudden, acute fall of blood pressure and died. 
At autopsy, his brain was found to be laced with hemorrhages, and there was a massive, fatal hemorrhage at the center. 
In Frankfurt, an animal attendant known as B. developed a high fever and eventually began bleeding from his mouth, nose, and gastrointestinal tract. 
He was given whole-blood transfusions, but then he developed uncontrollable hemorrhages at the sites of the I.V. punctures. 
He died with blood running from his mouth and his nipples. All the survivors lost their hair. During convalescence, the skin peeled off their faces, hands, feet, and genitals. 
It was a small, frightening emergence.
Marburg virus looks like rope, or it rolls up into the rings that resemble Cheerios. 
Virologists had never seen a ring-shaped virus, and couldn’t figure out how to classify it. They thought that it might be a type of rabies. 

The rabies particle is shaped like a bullet, and if you stretch a bullet it becomes a rod, and the rod can be bent into a doughnut: Marburg. They started calling Marburg “stretched rabies.”
But it is not related to rabies. 

The question was: What is the virus’s natural history? In what animal or insect does Marburg hide? Marburg evidently does not circulate in monkeys. 
Monkeys die quickly of the disease, and if they were the reservoir, Marburg wouldn’t wipe them out. 
The monkey’s immune system would have learned to attack the virus, and the virus itself would have become better adapted to living in monkeys without killing them, since it is in the virus’s best interest to let the host survive. 
The Marburg monkeys had been collected in Uganda by native trappers—apparently in forested habitat to the west of Mt. Elgon, an extinct volcano that straddles the border between Uganda and Kenya.
Teams of epidemiologists combed Uganda, and especially the western slopes of Mt. Elgon, looking for some animal or insect that harbored Marburg virus; they found nothing.
In 1980, a French engineer who was employed by the Nzoia Sugar Company at a factory in Kenya within sight of Mt. Elgon developed Marburg and died. 
He was an amateur naturalist who spent time camping and hiking around Mt. Elgon, and he had recently visited a cavern on the Kenyan side of the mountain which was known as Kitum Cave. 
It wasn’t clear where the Frenchman had picked up the virus, whether at the sugar factory or outdoors. 
Then, in the late summer of 1987, a Danish boy whose name will be given here as Peter Cardinal visited the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon with his parents—the Cardinals were tourists—and the boy broke with Marburg and died. 
Epidemiologists at usamriid became interested in the cases, and they traced the movements of the French engineer and the Danish boy in the days before their illnesses and deaths. 
The result was weird. The paths of the French engineer and the Danish boy had crossed only once—in Kitum Cave.  Peter Cardinal had gone inside Kitum Cave. 
As for the Ugandan trappers who had collected the original Marburg monkeys, they might have poached them from the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon. 
Those monkeys might have lived near Kitum Cave, and might even have occasionally visited the cave. 
Mt. Elgon is a huge, eroded volcanic massif, fifty miles across—one of the largest volcanoes in East Africa. 
Kitum Cave is one of a number of caverns that penetrate Mt. Elgon at an altitude of around eight thousand feet and open their mouths in a deep forest of podo trees, African junipers, African olives, and camphors. 
Kitum Cave descends into tight passages and underground pools that extend an unknown distance back into Mt. Elgon. The volcanic rock within Kitum Cave is permeated with mineral salts. 
Elephants go inside the cave to root out chunks of salty rock with their tusks and chew on them. 
Water buffalo also visit the cave to lick the rocks, and they may be followed into the cave by leopards. Fruit bats and insect-eating bats roost in the cave, filling the air with a sour smell. 
The animals drop their dung in the cave—an enclosed airspace—and they attract biting flies and carry ticks and mites. 
The volcanic rock contains petrified logs, the remains of trees that were enveloped in lava, and the logs are filled with sharp crystals. 

Peter Cardinal may have handled crystals inside the cave and scratched his hands. 
Possibly the crystals were tainted with animal urine or the remains of an insect. 

The Army keeps some of Peter Cardinal’s tissues frozen in cryovials, and the Cardinal strain is viciously hot. It kills guinea pigs like flies. 
in February, 1988, a few months after Peter Cardinal died, the Army sent a team of epidemiologists to Kitum Cave. 
The team wore Racal suits inside the cave. A Racal is a lightweight pressurized suit with a filtered air supply, used for hot operations in the field. 
There is no vaccine for Marburg, and the Army people had come to believe that the virus could be spread through the air. 
Near and inside the cave they set out, in cages, guinea pigs and primates—baboons, green monkeys, and Sykes’ monkeys—and they surrounded the cages with electrified wire to discourage predators. 
The guinea pigs and monkeys were sentinel animals, like canaries in a coal mine: they were placed there in the theory or the hope that some of them would develop Marburg. 
With the help of Kenyan naturalists, the Army team trapped as many different kinds of wild mammals as they could find, including rodents, rock hyraxes, and bats, and drew blood from them. 
They collected insects. Some local people, the il-Kony, had lived in some of the caves. 
A Kenyan doctor from the Kenya Medical Research Institute, in Nairobi, drew blood from these people and took their medical histories. 
At the far end of Kitum Cave, where it disappears in pools of water, the Army team found a population of sand flies. They mashed some flies and tested them for Marburg. The expedition was a dry hole. 
The sentinel animals remained healthy, and the blood and tissue samples from the mammals, insects, arthropods, and local people showed no obvious signs of Marburg. 
To this day, the natural reservoir of Marburg is unknown. Marburg lives somewhere in the shadow of Mt. Elgon

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@EABL_PLC East African Breweries Ltd. reports FY 2022 Earnings EPS 15.00 +172.2%
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


@EABL_PLC East African Breweries Ltd. reports FY 2022 Earnings EPS 15.00 +172.2%


Closing Price:           143.25
Total Shares Issued:          790774356.00
Market Capitalization:        113,278,426,497
EPS:              15.00
PE:                 9.55

EABL  reports FY 2022 Earnings through 30th June 2022 versus through 30th June 2021

FY Gross Sales 193.85b versus 152.572b

FY Net Revenues 109.409b versus 85.962b +27.3% 

FY Cost of Sales [56.533b] versus [48.548b]

FY Gross Profit 52.856b versus 37.414b

FY Selling & Distribution costs [9.734b] versus [7.362b]

FY Administrative expenses [10.842b] versus [9.32b]

FY Other expenses [4.028b] versus [5.925b]

FY Net Finance Costs [4.236b] versus [3.949b]

FY Profit before Income Tax 24.016b versus 10.858b

FY Profit for the Year 15.574b versus 6.962b  +123.7% 

FY EPS 15.00 versus 5.51 +172.2%

FY Final Dividend 7.25 [+ Interim 3.75 = 11]

FY Cash and Cash Equivalents 8.067b versus 4.421b

a P/B multiple of 4.3x.

Commentary

Net sales grew 27% to Kshs 109.4 billion as both beer and spirits recovered. 

At country level, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania’s revenues grew 30%, 24%, and 21% driven by volume recovery coupled with investment behind brands and continued channel innovation in response to consumer behaviour shifts. 

Strategic price increases following excise adjustments in Kenya and Uganda also contributed to net sales growth.

Net cash from operating activities (Kshs 25.9 billion) grew 77% and free cash flow increased by Kshs 12.3 billion to close at Kshs 12.7 billion as at 30 June 2022, driven by growth in operating profit and working capital management. 

This increase in cashflows saw a reduction in net debt from Kshs 41.8 billion to Kshs 34.7 billion.

However, the region has some of the highest alcohol excise tax rates in Sub Saharan Africa, with the excise regime in Kenya becoming increasingly aggressive and unpredictable, creating uncertainty for businesses like ours.

Conclusions 

Impressive rebound trades on a single digit PE


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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