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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 29th of August 2022
 


This is the Titanic
World Of Finance


This is the Titanic

I first went to the United Kingdom and to Westminster School  in January 1979. It was a very cold Winter. It is difficult to forget that period and in case you need reminding 

Prime Minister Callaghan was asked by a reporter
"What is your general approach, in view of the mounting chaos in the country at the moment?" and replied:
Well, that's a judgment that you are making. I promise you that if you look at it from outside, and perhaps you're taking rather a parochial view at the moment, I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos.
The next day's edition of @TheSun headlined its story "Crisis? What crisis?"
The Sun has always had a penchant for eye-catching headlines. Who can forget that The Sun’s fabulous headline ‘Freddie Starr Ate My Hamster’ but I digress.

By the early 1990s I was working at Credit Suisse First Boston and was running an Emerging Markets Repo Book. 

I had flown to New York to meet my credit Officer Walter J. Fakula who was towering 6ft 8in presence and explained to him how there were a whole slew of Brady Bonds [Brady bonds are dollar-denominated bonds, issued mostly by Latin American countries in the late 1980s. 

The bonds were named after U.S. Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, who proposed a novel debt-reduction agreement for developing countries.] which carried a component of embedded US Treasuries and that we could lend against these securities with haircuts of course. 

My Lending Book grew overnight to above $2b and we were making out like ''bandits'' because in those days we had no competition.  

We grew the business and of course everyone was knocking on my door including a very interesting Fellow called Michael Leitner who tried to squeeze the then benchmark Venezuelan Brady Bond, bought the entire cash bonds available [which I was financing] and then bought calls on those same bonds. 

Of course, we have seen reiterations of this Gamma Squeeze Trade over and over affirming Edwin Lefevre's adage
“Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market to-day has happened before and will happen again''  

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is a 1923 roman à clef by Edwin Lefèvre
Now lets fast forward to Q4 1994. By this stage, we were financing all sorts of exotic Instruments one of which was Mexican short term dollar denominated debt, called Tesobonos. 

Investors were getting a seriously juiced equivalent $ interest rate but everything of course hinged on a stable exchange rate. I had about $300m lent against these securities. 
However, in November USD 3bn is pulled out of the country, of which USD 1.6bn on a single day (18 November). 

I remember that date 18th November 1994 as vividly as I remember Black Wednesday (or the 1992 Sterling crisis) 16 September 1992.
The Tequila crisis unfolded as follows 
December 1st, 1994  The new Mexican government, headed by President Zedillo, takes office.
December 15th, 1994 The Wall Street Journal publishes an interview with the new Finance Minister Jaime Serra Puche, in which he denies that Mexico will devaluate the peso. The next day, USD 855 m leaves Mexico.
December 20th, 1994 The new cabinet concludes that the situation is unsustainable. Therefore, the Central Bank of Mexico announces a lift of the upper band of the exchange rate by 15%, an effective devaluation of the peso.
December 20-21th, 1994 In the two days after the announcement, USD 4.6 bn leaves the country, half of the foreign exchange reserves.
December 22th, 1994 The intervention on the foreign exchange market is lifted, and the peso is allowed to float freely. 

The total devaluation of the peso amounts to 35% by the end of December.
Of course, I was now in the eye of the storm and having to give frequent updates to bosses Bob Diamond Marc Hotisky et al. And during this period I said to my Bosses
The US cannot afford for Mexico to crash. Mexico is on the border of the US. The Spillover effects would be unfathomable. Therefore a package of support is inevitable and we need to buy all the Tesobonos at these bombed out prices. 

Within minutes Diamond had a multi jurisdiction call going on [I still remember his Fridge which was always filled with Diet Cokes], with the Vice Chairman David Mulford, Hotimsky and others. 

And within thirty minutes, we were in the market and the only Buyer of those Tesobonos.

February 1, 1995 Press Release: IMF Approves US$17.8 Billion Stand-By Credit for Mexico
https://bit.ly/3AsXZ6L
I was twenty nine years old then and never again have I met a constellation of brilliant minds like I did then, able to make decisions at speed. My Mistake was to think You can find this constellation. 

That Group at CSFB in 1994/1995 was unique. I have tried to recreate it on Twitter but when you are in the maelstroem, You are not going to Tweet. I worked for many organisations but never again found a Bench like I had at that time.

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This is the Titanic ....
World Of Finance




Before proceeding, we should note that pointing out the flaws in the West’s war response is not “pro-Putin,” nor is it “unpatriotic” as some propagandists on Twitter would have you believe. It is the opposite. Crazy Pills @DoombergT
No matter how the official narrative of this turns out, these are the places we should be looking, not in newspapers or television but at the margins, graffiti, uncontrolled utterances, bad dreamers who sleep in public and scream in their sleep. Thomas Pynchon, Bleeding Edge
Now lets come to this Year. I recall being in London early in the Year and meeting with old school friends really successful ones at the pinnacle of their careers. 

And the Ukraine War had started and they all told me ''he is and he is forced out in a few weeks Chum'' 

And I said ''No he is not'' and have you thought of what will happen and to be frank I was dismissed out of hand.

On Twitter I had to mute the Claque and the echo chamber that is the Western Think Tanker class for my sanity.
The @POTUS Official Who Pierced Putin’s “Sanction-Proof” Economy @NewYorker 
https://bit.ly/3JJo7Ob
Singh said, “We’ve made him stare into an economic abyss. But he could choose to pull back.”
The markets are where these two systems touch—the supply of buckwheat, the joint energy ventures, the price of the ruble—and within this arena the sanctions were a demonstration that Washington still had levers to pull. 

“You know, we can play chess, too,” Singh said. “It was important for us to show that the fortress could come crumbling down.”
Hubris (/ˈhjuːbrɪs/; from Ancient Greek ὕβρις (húbris) 'pride, insolence, outrage') describes a personality quality of extreme or excessive pride or dangerous overconfidence, often in combination with (or synonymous with) arrogancehttps://bit.ly/3yLXrK8
The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancishttps://bit.ly/3rfkf0c
I was reminded of Sun Tzu & The Art of War ''victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
I wanted to explain that a ''revanchist'' Putin is in fact not a Risk Taker, that he has waited patiently for this moment. 

Our Western Economies are like a bonfire of turbo financialised QE, that the violence of the geoeconomic boomerang is going to be unprecedented. 
Sure Mr. Taleb says ''The Western system is inherently self-correcting. Help preserve it!'' but how do we preserve it with this level of insanity.
The ''Leader of the Free World'' President Biden said his sanctions against Russia would “reduce the Ruble to rubble”
https://bit.ly/3mOhPDb
& Today The RUB is the strongest EMEA currency tand the strongest currency in the World] 
https://twitter.com/x1skv/status/1562442274742579200?s=20&t=5EbvyQyqqZvWR2FsUJ0tjg
The Economist is reporting

Why the Russian economy keeps beating expectations @TheEconomist 
https://econ.st/3cky892
“Experts predict Russia’s gdp will contract up to 15% this year, wiping out the last 15 years of economic gains,” the White House gloated.
Both sides of the debate agree the country is still hurting. Massive increases in interest rates in the spring, designed to stabilise the collapsing rouble, along with the withdrawal of foreign businesses, have pushed it into recession. In the second quarter of the year gdp fell by 4% year on year, according to official figures. 
Our ability to Pull forward is exhausted. You would have to be an imbecile not TO have predicted that 
1. Just for fun: Today's Eur 300 gas price is 17x the long-term average and the Dec. 20 price. Putin has to sell 1/17 much as gas as he did in 2020 to make as much money. Who came up with these sanctions? Must have been knuckle-headed academic economists.
https://twitter.com/davidpgoldman/status/1562510799372820483?s=20&t=8UeuJ9OfENCump-ZSuQfTw
2. Germany's consumption of around 1000 TWh of #gas per year just got a lot more expensive. @COdendahl

https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1562718803469156358?s=20&t=eskUGF2TDx3pIWWkhY4f2A
We used to pay <1% of GDP for gas. At €300, it will be ... 8.4% of GDP. 

3. Good Morning from #Germany, which is heading toward an electricity crisis. The 1y ahead power price has skyrocketed to almost €1,000 per megawatt hour. The electricity price has risen by 720% ytd. @Schuldensuehner
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1563416712707710976?s=20&t=8UeuJ9OfENCump-ZSuQfTw
4. If bills do indeed exceed £6k next year then you're talking about spending £120bn-£130bn to freeze people's bills. This is a staggering amount - more than double the cost of furlough - which was already the single biggest economic intervention in UK peacetime history @EdConwaySky

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1563178591914827776?s=20&t=-0Deh1EyuVgExoTy5zb3Qg
5. Just thought I might update you on the latest ‘best’ energy deal available for a pub of our size.  We were paying 15p/unit in May. This is the best quote available today. @RoseAndCrownBeb
https://twitter.com/RoseAndCrownBeb/status/1563451257376763908?s=20&t=rAxq_cORE02x7eqaHTm9oA
6. Analysis: Heat or eat? Winter protests loom as energy poverty sweeps Europe @Reuters H/T @staunovo 
https://reut.rs/3Rflkjb
The most disturbing part of all is that the parabola has not resulted in any policy shifts, and in fact a doubling down.
Deee-Lite - Good Beat (Official Music Video)
http://bit.ly/2Y5X4FQ
Depending on you see a thing
The ship is free, or is it sinking?
This is the Titanic, plain and simple. 

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This is the Titanic [continued]
World Of Finance


This is the Titanic [continued]



I take you now to Ibn Khaldun 
Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Emmanuel Macron  warned France to  prepare  for a miserable winter in which they must be ready to pay “the price of liberty”
“the price of liberty” which was not engaging with Putin and at least picking a better moment is beyond calculation.

Our Economies are teetering and the downside cascade effects are now in plain sight. Is anyone modelling what is now a cliff edge? 
How many Jobs are about to be vaporized? How many Businesses? Are we going to print more worthless Euros?

Are our Leaders going to spin more weaponized babble? as we career at top speed off the cliff.
Lets finish off with the markets.
The Euro and GBP are at the cliff edge. 
May 2 Currency puzzles I AM EXPECTING THE DOLLAR INDEX TO RALLY TOWARDS 110.00 BECAUSE WE HAVE UNDERGONE A REGIME CHANGE
https://bit.ly/3LEqBOH
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) which averaged 140.9 points in July 2022, down 13.3 points (8.6 percent) from June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. @vtchakarova

https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1563477948753408004?s=20&t=PfIPT-eTFP5jNDcKtF57IQ
Is poised to rally sharply higher.
One of the preeminent Thinkers today is @CreditSuisse's Zoltan Pozsar and he said 
The policymakers to follow are no longer central bankers, but heads of state at the pinnacle of power who aren’t known for the transparency of their thinking – especially not when at war. @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar
https://bit.ly/3SCBdBz

I have no faith in those at  the pinnacle of power. None. So I expect more babble and a doubling down.
Sheep spend their entire lives being afraid of the wolf, but end up eaten by the shepherd. Fabio Vighi
https://bit.ly/3v7jNUk
The sacrifice of a sheep (1997) Kourush. Daghestan. RUSSIA Thomas Dworzak @fatalstrategies


The market is not fair. the Mkt can be random, it's not being right or wrong that will keep you in the game, its risk management, and discipline. @timkirkfx



The market is not fair. the Mkt can be random, but most of the time we see the same behaviour time and again. Sometimes we are wrong, sometimes we are right, it's not being right or wrong that will keep you in the game, its risk management, and discipline.

1. Terminal rate edges up to 3.82% for March next year, the highest in 2 months 

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/1563175399177170945?s=20&t=8UeuJ9OfENCump-ZSuQfTw

Terminal rate edges up to 3.82% for March next year, the highest in 2 months, and the amount of easing priced into Mar-Dec 2023 period slips 3 bps to around 37 bps.


[There is no economic precedent for] 200 to 300 bps of fed funds addressing 8% inflation with employment at 3.6%. @BillAckman




 “If you have to cut off the tail of a dog, don’t do it one inch at a time.” St. Louis Fed President Bullard quoted folklore in a speech today, @CT_Osprey


Home Thoughts





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The @serenahotels brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds me of happy; joyful; carefree: halcyon days of youth.
Africa

The @serenahotels  brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds me of happy; joyful; carefree: halcyon days of youth.

MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the manag- ing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager. I was then a teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at table tennis, in a bikini. That table tennis is still there.

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Sunday, April 10, 2022 The moment we find ourselves is in is one of extreme stress and complexity.
Law & Politics


The Geopolitical fault line is most visible in Ukraine and therefore at the European periphery, however, fault lines are emerging all over the global landscape and exhibiting multiple feedback loops, which feedback loops all have viral and exponential characteristics.

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All the Way to Odessa PEPE ESCOBAR @UnzReview
Law & Politics

All the Way to Odessa PEPE ESCOBAR @UnzReview 


Dmitry Medvedev, relishing his unplugged self, has laid down the law on the Special Military Operation (SMO). 

Bluntly, he affirmed there is a “one and a half” scenario: either to go all the way, or a military coup d’etat in Ukraine followed by admitting the inevitable. No tertium applies.
That’s as stark as it gets: the leadership in Moscow is making it very clear, to internal and international audiences, the new deal consists in slow cooking the Kiev racket inside a massive cauldron while polishing its status of financial black hole for the collective West. 

Until we reach boiling point – which will be a revolution or a putsch.
In parallel, The Lords of (Proxy) War will continue with their own strategy, which is to pillage an enfeebled, fearful, Europe, then dressing it up as a perfumed colony to be ruthlessly exploited ad nauseam by the imperial oligarchy.
Europe is now a runaway TGV – minus the requisite Hollywood production values. 

Assuming it does not veer off track – a dicey proposition – it may eventually arrive at a railway station called Agenda 2030, The Great Narrative, or some other NATO/Davos denomination du jour.
As it stands, what’s remarkable is how the “marginal” Russian economy hardly broke a sweat to “end the abundance” of the wealthiest region on the planet.
Moscow does not even entertain the notion of negotiating with Brussels because there’s nothing to negotiate – considering puny Eurocrats will only be hurled away from their zombified state when the dire socio-economic consequences of “the end of abundance” will finally translate into peasants with pitchforks roaming the continent.
It may be eons away, but inevitably the average Italian, German or Frenchman will connect the dots and realize it is their own “leaders” – national nullities and mostly unelected Eurocrats – who are paving their road to poverty.
You will be poor. And you will like it. Because we are all supporting freedom for Ukrainian neo-nazis. That brings the concept of “multicultural Europe” to a whole new level.
The runaway train, of course, may veer off track and plunge into an Alpine abyss. 

In this case something might be saved from the wreckage – and “reconstruction” might be on the cards. But reconstruct what?
Europe could always reconstruct a new Reich (collapsed with a bang in 1945); a soft Reich (erected at the end of WWII); or break with its past failures, sing “I’m Free” – and connect with Eurasia. Don’t bet on it.
The SMO may be about to radically change – something that will drive the already clueless denizens of U.S. Think Tankland and their Euro vassals even more berserk.
President Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu have been giving serious hints the only way for the pain dial is up – considering the mounting evidence of terrorism inside Russian territory; the vile assassination of Darya Dugina; non-stop shelling of civilians in border regions; attacks on Crimea; the use of chemical weapons; and the shelling of Zaporizhzhya power plant raising the risk of a nuclear catastrophe.
This past Tuesday, one day before the SMO completing six months, Crimea’s permanent representative to the Kremlin, Georgy Muradov, all but spelled it out.
He stressed the necessity to “reintegrate all the Taurian lands” – Crimea, the Northern Black Sea and the Azov Sea – into a single entity as soon as “in the next few months”. He defined this process as “objective and demanded by the population of these regions.”

Muradov added, “given not only the strikes on Crimea, but also the continuous shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, the dam of the Kakhovka reservoir, peaceful facilities on the territory of Russia, the DNR and LNR, there are all preconditions to qualify the actions of the Banderite regime as terrorist.”
The conclusion is inevitable: “the political issue of changing the format of the special military operation” enters the agenda. After all,
Washington and Brussels “have already prepared new anti-Crimean provocations of the NATO-Bandera alliance”.
So when we examine what the “restoration of the Taurian lands” implies, we see not only the contours of Novorossiya but most of all that there won’t be any security for Crimea – and thus Russia – in the Black Sea without Odessa becoming Russian again. And that, on top of it, will solve the Transnistria dilemma.
Add to it Kharkov – the capital and top industrial center of Greater Donbass. And of course Dnipropetrovsk. 

They are all SMO objectives, the whole combo to be later protected by buffer zones in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts.
Only then the “tasks” – as Shoigu calls them – of the SMO would be declared fulfilled. The timeline could be eight to ten months – after a lull under General Winter.
As the turbo-charged SMO rolls on, it’s a given the Empire of Chaos, Lies and Plunder will continue to prop up and weaponize the Kiev racket till Kingdom Come – and that will apply especially after the Return of Odessa. 

What’s unclear is who and what gang will be left in Kiev posing as the ruling party and doing specials for Vogue while duly fulfilling the mass of imperial diktats.
It’s also a given the CIA/MI6 combo will be refining non-stop the contours of a massive guerrilla war against Russia in multiple fronts – crammed with terror attacks and all sorts of provocations.
Yet in the Bigger Picture it’s the inevitable Russian military victory in Donbass and then “all the Taurian lands” that will hit the collective West like a lethal asteroid. 

The geopolitical humiliation will be unbearable; not to mention the geoeconomic humiliation for vassalized Europe.
As Eurasian integration will become an even stronger vector, Russian diplomacy will be solidifying the new normal. 

Never forget that Moscow had no trouble normalizing relations, for instance, with China, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Israel. 

All these actors, in different ways, directly contributed to the fall of the USSR. Now – with one exception – they are all focused on The Dawn of the Eurasian Century.

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America has a few simple geostrategic objectives: @ndcarson
Law & Politics


America has a few simple geostrategic objectives: @ndcarson

1) Maintain control of North America. 

2) Prevent outside powers from gaining influence in the Western Hemisphere. 

3) Control the world's sea lanes. 

4) Prevent any Eurasian regional hegemon from emerging and building a navy. 4/n

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ


Euro 0.9942
Dollar Index 108/99
Japan Yen 138.75
Swiss Franc .9694
Pound 1.1677
Aussie 0.6860
India Rupee 79.959
South Korea Won 1342.00
Brazil Real 5.064
Egypt Pound 19.19
South Africa Rand 16.9194

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The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 140.9 points in July 2022, down 13.3 points (8.6 percent) from June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. @vtchakarova
Food, Climate & Agriculture


Nevertheless, it remained 16.4 points (13.1 percent) above its value in the corresponding month last year. 

Conclusions

I am expecting a serious acceleration higher from here 

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Fragile Nations Burn Through Their @IMFNews Lifelines to Plug Gap @bpolitics @economics
Emerging Markets


Fragile Nations Burn Through Their @IMFNews  Lifelines to Plug Gap @bpolitics @economics 


The world’s most financially fragile countries have burned through the extra International Monetary Fund reserves they got last year, raising calls for a fresh injection to help them weather higher interest rates, food and fuel costs.
The IMF’s record $650 billion issuance of reserve assets known as special drawing rights, or SDRs, last August “was badly needed,” and has been almost exclusively used by low- and middle-income countries, the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research, a progressive think tank, said in a report Wednesday. 
The allocation has been “a considerable success,” with 105 out of 190 member countries using the reserves -- distributed in proportion to each country’s share in the fund -- either for debt relief, hard currency, fiscal help or some combination of the three, said Andres Arauz and Kevin Cashman, the authors of the report. 

Of those nations, more than 30 used as least 90% of their SDRs.
Because SDRs are distributed according to country shares at the IMF, a significant portion go to richer nations that have no need for them, the authors said. 

More than half of the new SDRs went to advanced economies, with 42% for emerging and developing economies and just 3.2% to the smaller subset of low-income nations. 
The US -- the fund’s biggest shareholder -- has earned about $15.6 billion in interest on its unused SDRs, Arauz and Cashman found. 
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has urged wealthy nations to redirect some of their SDR allocation to more needy countries and has touted the idea of channeling their support through multilateral development banks, though that hasn’t been done so far. 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has called on rich nations to donate -- and not just on-lend -- their allotments. 
The CEPR research shows just 11 nations have committed to redirect their resources to poorer countries, and no funds have been received. 

“Due to the fact rechanneling has not yet delivered on its promises, there is a growing effort to help low- and middle-income countries with an additional issuance of SDRs,” the researchers said. 

“In the context of additional global crises, such as rising interest rates, the high costs of food and energy, and spillover effects from the war in Ukraine, a similarly sized allocation as last year’s would provide $209 billion for these countries.”

In July, key Democratic congressional allies urged President Joe Biden’s administration to support a new injection of resources for countries at the IMF to help them deal with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Back in 2020, just before Biden’s election, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who advised the campaign on economic policy, and former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for an issuance of “well over $1 trillion.” 
Such a move would require support from 85% of the voting share among the institution’s 190 member economies and a determination that there’s a long-term need for more global liquidity even after the biggest reserves creation in history.

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Angolans started paying their final respect to former President Jose Eduardo dos #Santos on Saturday. @cgtnafrica
Africa


Angolans started paying their final respect to former President Jose Eduardo dos #Santos on Saturday. @cgtnafrica


A brown casket carrying dos Santos's body and draped with the Angolan flag made the solemn trip through the streets to the city's central Praca da Republica plaza. 

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While the ruling MPLA won, with just 51.07% of the valid ballots cast, the party that led the country since independence from Portugal in 1975 suffered its worst electoral result yet. @business Next Africa
Africa


That may be a sign of things to come. Next year, Zimbabweans go to the polls and in 2024 citizens of South Africa, Namibia and Mozambique will vote. The ballots are likely to be tighter than ever.
The African National Congress, the movement Nelson Mandela led to power, may lose its stranglehold on politics in South Africa for the first time since the end of apartheid.
The parties are under increasing pressure. 

Their leaders are old, while voters are young and care more about jobs and the cost of living than the struggles their parents underwent for freedom. 

All of the nations’ founding fathers — Mandela, Samora Machel, Robert Mugabe, Agostinho Neto and Sam Nujoma — are dead or retired. 
Crucially, prosperity rarely followed the elation of liberation, and in the cases that it did, it was fleeting.

Despite its oil wealth, half of Angolans live on less than $2 a day, 

Zimbabwe’s formal economy has collapsed, Mozambique is the world’s third-poorest nation and South Africa has been rocked by a decade of corruption scandals and remains deeply unequal. 

Namibia is recovering from a period where it’s economy shrunk in nine of 10 consecutive quarters.

“The emerging generation is different from the one that lived through the” wars, said Gustavo Placido, an independent political risk analyst in Lisbon. “They will force change.”
It may not be this week, but that change is coming. 

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France’s president @EmmanuelMacron went to Algiers and Oran this week in an attempt to make nice with a country that had to fight a vicious war of independence to free itself. @thecontinent_
Africa


Differing interpretations of that war – Emmanuel Macron last year accused the Algerian government of “cashing in” on memories of the violence to stay in power – led to a breakdown of relations. But now France needs gas, so...

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The Battle of Algiers (with English subtitles)
Africa


 The Battle of Algiers (with English subtitles)


The Battle of Algiers (Arabic: معركة الجزائر‎; French: La Bataille d'Alger; Italian: La battaglia di Algeri) is a 1966 war film based on occurrences during the Algerian War (1954–62) against French colonial occupation in North Africa, the most prominent being the titular Battle of Algiers. It was directed by Gillo Pontecorvo. 

The film has been critically celebrated and often taken, by insurgent groups and states alike, as an important commentary on urban guerilla warfare. 

It occupies the 120th place on Empire Magazine's list of the 500 greatest movies of all time.[1] 

Algeria was eventually liberated from the French, but Pontecorvo relegates that to an epilogue. 

He concentrates instead on the years between 1954 and 1957 when the freedom fighters regrouped and expanded into the casbah, only to face a systematic attempt by French paratroopers to wipe them out. 

His highly dramatic film is about the organisation of a guerrilla movement and the methods used to annihilate it by the colonial power.

Directed by   Gillo Pontecorvo
Written by    Gillo Pontecorvo

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The Battle of Algiers: Bombs and Boomerangs
Africa


The Battle of Algiers: Bombs and Boomerangs


an absolute pinnacle of countercinema—the ne plus ultra of a mode that seeks to intervene strategically in the war for social change movie offers iconography—checkpoints child martyrs interrogation rooms, torture chambers—that has become timely again & worth meditating on. 

“It is the moment of the boomerang” Jean-Paul Sartre

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9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa


9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes


we were all popping Quaaludes [Quaaludes ‘’to promote relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These proper- ties are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric effect’’].

Everyone knows how this story ends. When the music stops, everyone will dash for the Exit and the currency will collapse 

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Can Nigeria finance its war against insurgents? @issafrica TENIOLA TAYO
Africa


Can Nigeria finance its war against insurgents? @issafrica  TENIOLA TAYO 


Nigeria now spends more than it earns just to service its debt – a crisis that raises serious concerns about the government’s ability to finance public infrastructure, civil service salaries, education and healthcare. 

It also has dire implications for the protracted war against the Boko Haram insurgency.
The Finance Ministry’s public revenue and expenditure performance report for January to April 2022, released last month, shows that the federal government’s retained revenue for that period was insufficient to service its debt. 

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, the 118.9% debt servicing-to-revenue ratio was the worst in the world.
The causes of the revenue crisis are varied. They include the government’s dependence on oil exports since production boomed in the 1970s, external shocks such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, corruption and oil theft, and an economic structure that’s incompatible with its rapidly growing population. 

Policy choices such as the ongoing petroleum subsidy have exacerbated the situation.
Nigeria has struggled to overcome the Boko Haram threat since it turned violent in 2011. 

Current conflict dynamics are even more worrying, with three active factions, significant external support, and an expansionist drive that has widened the geographical scope of the insurgency.
To make matters worse, the dilemma involving herdsmen is worsening. 

Some have evolved into violent criminal gangs, or bandits, who kill and kidnap Nigerians and sometimes foreign nationals. 

In the South of the country, violent secessionists are further stretching the capacity and resources of security personnel.

According to Business Day, data from the World Bank shows that Nigeria’s defence budget has risen by 262% in the past five years, from US$1.72 billion in 2017 to US$4.5 billion in 2021

Although Nigeria’s defence spending is still much lower than the world average of 2% of GDP, its growth occurs against a background of dwindling revenues and growing debt.

Military spending alone won’t be enough for Nigeria to win the fight against insurgencies. 

Long-term solutions need a systematic resolution of their underlying causes, which include relative deprivation, unemployment, lack of education and insufficient primary healthcare and other public services. 

Failure to address these issues has fuelled banditry in north-west and north-central Nigeria – threats that are now even deadlier than Boko Haram.
So Nigeria’s revenue crisis will stifle not only the government’s capacity for kinetic warfare, but also its ability to improve the conditions that allow conflicts to emerge. 

And recent gains made by the military will require resources to prevent their reversal.
Although government revenue may increase slightly over the rest of the year, high debt servicing payments will force policy choices that affect security and development. 

Federal authorities allocated 15% of their 2022 budget to defence. This surpassed the combined allocations to health (7%) and education (5%).

Beyond insurgencies, civil policing must also be strengthened to help deal with surging crime, which if left unattended, could intersect with violent extremism. 

This includes offences like kidnapping for ransom, which are sometimes jointly perpetrated by Boko Haram factions and other attackers.

However, reforms will be difficult in a low-revenue environment. 

The government is currently financing its budget deficit through external and domestic debt. 

But this approach is fast proving unsustainable. A debt default will plunge Nigeria’s public finances into a more difficult situation.
Some options for improving Nigeria’s public finances in the short term include ending the costly petrol subsidy payments, addressing oil theft and improving tax collection. 

President Muhammadu Buhari seems unwilling to remove the petrol subsidies, despite alternative solutions that can be explored. 

The subsidies prevented Nigeria from benefiting from the recent oil boom when prices exceeded US$100 per barrel.
Oil theft is arguably more complicated, requiring significant political will to deal with perpetrators who are often highly placed in the public and private sectors. 

Taxation is just as tricky. Many Nigerians already pay high informal taxes. The inadequacy of public services and weak accountability have damaged the social contract, causing resistance to further taxation.

The current situation poses an existential threat to Nigeria’s state capacity that could benefit insurgents and violent extremists. 

According to Jihad Analytics, Nigeria had the second highest number of attacks (304) claimed by Islamic State between January and June, with Iraq first (337) and Syria third (142). 

An underfunded government may be unable to stop Islamic State West Africa Province’s ongoing expansion.

Hard decisions are needed. Ending the fuel subsidies may be painful in the short term but is critical to sustainability. 

Austerity measures must start at the top, and the excesses of elected and appointed public officials must be curbed. 

Economic reforms that boost private sector development are vital for creating a more robust base for revenue generation.
Although Buhari is approaching the end of his tenure, it isn’t too late to tackle the current crisis and bequeath a good legacy. 

The stakes are high, and there are no quick fixes. To yield returns in the near term, reforms must be implemented immediately.

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Under Kenya’s constitution, the Supreme Court must make a ruling within 14 days of the filing of the petition, meaning a deadline of Sept. 5. @business Next Africa
Law & Politics

 Under Kenya’s constitution, the Supreme Court must make a ruling within 14 days of the filing of the petition, meaning a deadline of Sept. 5. @business Next Africa 

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I&M @imbankke I & M Holdings Ltd share data and HY 22 Earnings
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


I&M @imbankke I & M Holdings Ltd share data and HY 22 Earnings 


Closing Price:           17.15
Total Shares Issued:          826810738.00
Market Capitalization:        14,179,804,157
EPS:             4.92
PE:                 3.486



HY 22 Fair Value changes in Financial Assets at FVOCI [5.555076b] versus [161.591m]

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@KCBGroup share data and HY 22 Earnings
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


@KCBGroup  share data and HY 22 Earnings 


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           40.95
Total Shares Issued:          3087443344.00
Market Capitalization:        126,430,804,937
EPS:             10.64
PE:                 3.849

 

Conclusions

Counter Trend in that HY 22 Total comprehensive income was in fact above HY 22 Profit after tax

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@NSE_PLC Nairobi Securities Exchange reports HY 2022 EPS 0.15 versus 0.30
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


@NSE_PLC Nairobi Securities Exchange reports HY 2022 EPS 0.15 versus 0.30


Par Value:                  
Closing Price:           7.54
Total Shares Issued:          260,391,401
Market Capitalization:       
EPS:             0.51
PE:                 14.784



.@NSE_PLC reports HY 2022 through 30th June 2022 versus through 30th June 2021

HY 22 Total Income 360.865m versus 368.822m

HY 22 Transactions levy Equity 129.806m versus 167.335m

HY 22 Transactions levy Bonds 47.427m versus 32.943m

HY 22 Annual initial & additional listing fees 35.253m versus 36.563m

HY 22 Interest Income 58.311m versus 48.346m

HY 22 Staff Costs 95.934m versus 95.320m

HY 22 Other Operating Costs 72.412m versus 48.675m

HY 22 Total Expenses 275.059m versus 256.643m

HY 22 Profit before fair value movements 85.806m versus 112.179m

HY 22 Provision for expected credit losses and bond mark to market valuation [17.930m] versus [4.811m]

HY 22 Profit before Taxation 59.691m versus 107.969m 

HY 22 Profit for the year 40.238m versus 77.393m

HY 22 Other comprehensive profit 44.808m versus 23.159m

HY 22 Total comprehensive income for the Year 85.046m versus 100.522m

HY 22 EPS 0.15 versus 0.30

HY 22 Cash & cash equivalents 170.284m versus 487.158m

Commentary

At the close of H1 2022, equity turnover decreased by 22.41% to stand at Kshs. 54 Billion compared to Kshs. 69.7 Billion recorded in H1 2021.

Bonds market turnover declined by 17.85% in the first half of 2022 compared to a similar period in 2021. 

As at June 30 2022, total bonds turnover stood at Kshs. 387 Billion compared to Kshs. 471 Billion recorded over a similar period in 2021.

Equity market capitalization stood at Kshs. 1.94 Trillion compared to Kshs. 2.7 Trillion recorded over a similar period in 2021. The total value of outstanding bonds stood at Kshs.3.59 Trillion.

The equity market continued to witness increased corporate actions which saw companies strengthen their shareholder capital. 

These included TPS Serena which issued a debt swap that saw USD 14.5 Million debt converted to shares. 

Bank of Kigali (BK) issued a Dividend Re-Investment Plan that saw investors re-invest their net dividend into ordinary shares of BK at a 5% discount to the share price. 

Car & General also issued a bonus issue in the ratio of 1 new share for every 1 share owned.

The Derivatives market recorded a turnover of Kshs. 72 Million with 2,189 contracts traded. 

During the period, we also introduced four new contracts namely Co-operative Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, I & M Bank and NCBA Bank. 

The market now has a total of 12 contracts available to trade.


Conclusions

Bear market. 

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@StandardGroupLc reports HY 2022 EPS [3.41] versus [0.67]
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


@StandardGroupLc reports HY 2022 EPS [3.41] versus [0.67]


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           14.70
Total Shares Issued:          81731808.00
Market Capitalization:        1,201,457,578
EPS:             -0.81
PE:                 -18.148



.@StandardGroupLc reports HY 2022 through 30th June 2022 versus through 30th June 2021

HY 22 Revenue 1.371574b versus 1.596935b 

HY 22 Total Operating Costs [1.714797b] versus [1.602553b]

HY 22 Finance Costs [net] [85.688m] versus [81.560m]

HY 22 Loss before Income Tax [428.911m] versus [87.178m]

HY 22 Income Tax Credit 128.674m versus 25.965m

HY 22 Loss after Tax [300.237m] versus [61.213m]

HY 22 Attributable to Non-Controlling interests [21.736m]

HY 22 Attributable to Owners of the Parent [278.501m]  

HY 22 EPS [3.41] versus [0.67]

HY 22 Cash and cash Equivalents [167.968m] versus [103.721m]



Commentary



On the revenue front, key clients reduced their advertising spends in the first half of 2022 as the cost of doing business increased. 

Additionally, heightened political activities due to the general elections led many customers to reduce or delay their marketing activities. 

On the positive side, digital revenues continued to grow in 2022 with figures tracking at 9% above the same period 2021.
The Group’s performance for the 6 month period ended 30 June 2022 showed a 14% decrease in revenue from Kshs.1.6 billion in 2021 to Kshs.1.4 billion for the same period in 2021

Total operating costs increased by 7% driven by an increase in direct costs and overheads of 2% and 7% respectively. 

The Group’s bottom line declined closing at a loss after tax of Kshs 300 million against a loss after tax of Kshs. 61 million for the same period last year.

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TPS Eastern Africa Ltd. (@serenahotels) reports HY 2022 EPS [0.19] versus [2.96]
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


TPS Eastern Africa Ltd. (@serenahotels)  reports HY 2022 EPS [0.19] versus  [2.96] 


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           17.50
Total Shares Issued:          282,651,000
Market Capitalization:        
EPS:             -3.4
PE:                 -5.147



TPS Eastern Africa Ltd. (Serena) reports HY 2022 through 30th June 2022 versus through 30th June 2021
HY 22 Revenue from contracts with Customers 2.593289b versus 1.073551b

HY 22 Profit/[Loss] before exchange difference, interest,depreciation results of associates & taxation 509.520m versus [254.832m]

HY 22 Exchange [Loss] / gain on foreign currency loans [88.849m] versus 60.251m

HY 22 Net Interest Cost [124.235m] versus [137.881m]

HY 22 Depreciation [295.950m] versus [332.395m]

HY 22 Share of results of associates 7.458m versus [27.380m]

HY 22 Loss before income Tax [22.058m] versus [892.237m]

HY 22 Loss after Taxation [23.485m] versus [557.276m]

HY 22 EPS [0.19] versus  [2.96] 

HY 22 Currency Translation differences [256.709m] versus [143.515m]

HY 22 Total comprehensive Loss [280.194m] versus [700.791m]

Commentary 

Q2 22 confirms renewed momentum and an encouraging rebound 

Conclusions 

recovering after a torrid period. 

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Living on the edge takes a whole new meaning at Lake Manyara Serena Safari Lodge. @serenahotels
Africa


Living on the edge takes a whole new meaning at Lake Manyara Serena Safari Lodge. @serenahotels


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B.O.C Kenya Ltd. reports HY 2022 EPS 2.00 versus 1.96
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


B.O.C Kenya Ltd.  reports HY 2022 EPS 2.00 versus 1.96


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           84.75
Total Shares Issued:          19525446.00
Market Capitalization:        1,654,781,549
EPS:             5.55
PE:                 15.270



B.O.C Kenya Ltd  reports HY 2022 through 30th June 2022 versus through 30th June 2021
HY 22 Revenue 504.185m versus 696.179m
HY 22 Earnings before Finance and Income Tax 52.615m versus 54.546m
HY 22 Net Finance Income 7.252m versus 11.081m
HY 22 Profit before Tax 59.867m versus 65.627m
HY 22 Profit for the Year 39.070m versus 38.276m
HY 22 EPS 2.00 versus 1.96
HY Interim Dividend 1.60 versus 1.50
HY 22 Cash at the End of period 463.035m versus 613.307m

Commentary 

Revenue for the 6 month period ended 30 June 2022 was lower than that for the same period in 2021 due to a reduction in COVID-19 related demand for medical oxygen as hospitalisations arising from infection decreased.
Revenue from industrial gases increased due to a recovery in demand. 
Impacted by rising global inflation especially notable is the cost of calcium carbide, fuel prices and depreciation of the shilling 



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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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