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Thursday 01st of September 2022
 



Sunday, April 10, 2022 fault lines are emerging all over the global landscape and exhibiting multiple feedback loops, which feedback loops all have viral and exponential characteristics.
World Of Finance


Sunday, April 10, 2022  fault lines are emerging all over the global landscape and exhibiting multiple feedback loops, which feedback loops all have viral and exponential characteristics.



The moment we find ourselves is in is one of extreme stress and complexity. 

The Geopolitical fault line is most visible in Ukraine and therefore at the European periphery, however, fault lines are emerging all over the global landscape and exhibiting multiple feedback loops, which feedback loops all have viral and exponential characteristics.

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Western leaders are madder than I thought @unherd @moveincircles
Law & Politics


Western leaders are madder than I thought @unherd @moveincircles 


They are more willing than I predicted to immiserate their populations

Europe is belatedly grappling with the (entirely foreseeable) consequences of imposing sanctions on Russia. 

The Nord Stream pipeline has been intermittently closed over the summer, reportedly for “maintenance” (which no one believes). Another closure has just been announced.
As a result, prices are rocketing across the continent, with the ripple effects already being felt by businesses and consumers. 

“The electricity market is no more a functioning market because there’s one actor — Putin — who’s systematically trying to destroy it”, EU President Ursula von der Leyen said yesterday, as she pledged emergency EU action to mitigate the impact of soaring costs on consumers and businesses.

It’s anyone’s guess whether families and businesses already on tight margins, and struggling to recover from the impact of Covid measures, will survive the many weeks these “emergency” measures will take to devise. 

Regardless, the news prompted me to revisit my own predictions on Putin’s weaponisation of energy six months ago, back when the Western response to Russian aggression was still largely at the sabre-rattling stage.

I pointed out then that all of Europe was structurally dependent on Russian gas, and that Putin had timed his Ukraine excursion to coincide with an already tight energy market. 

Elites might well be blithe, I suggested, about the downstream political consequences of quadrupling ordinary families’ energy bills in pursuit of abstract principles such as “rules-based international order”. 

But this policy might not garner mainstream support further down the socioeconomic food chain.
More broadly, I argued, despite the wishful thinking of liberal internationalists, the End of History has well and truly ended, and geopolitics should adjust accordingly. 

Looking back, I was both right and wrong.
I was right about the predictable consequences of sanctions. 

The “cost of lockdown crisis” is already bad enough for the just-about-managing; piling a cost of Ukraine crisis on top is tipping millions into grim hardship. 

I was wrong, though, about two things: firstly, political leaders’ willingness to immiserate their own electorates in pursuit of abstract principle (they are more willing than I thought); and secondly, the ability of electorates to join the dots (they are taking surprisingly long to work it out).

A café owner in Ireland yesterday posted a photo of her electricity bill (above), amounting to nearly €10,000; it wasn’t this which excited comment, though, so much as the Ukraine flag in her Twitter bio. 

It’s a small detail, but one that strongly suggests the café owner continued to lend at least passive support to the very foreign policy measures chiefly responsible for the swingeing energy price rise now threatening the survival of her business.

We were always going to have to transition away from fossil fuels. And it was always likely to be a bumpy ride. 

Now, thanks to a concatenating series of leadership blunders, it looks as though it’s all going to land at once. 

It’s not just about Ukraine: less than joined-up thinking on renewables, the rose-tinted Merkelist view of dependence on Russian energy and short-sighted decisions on nuclear all play a part.
And arguably the European willingness to follow the American lead on prioritising “democracy” over affordable energy is, in its way, a realist one. 

The United States does, after all, underwrite European military security. If the Land of the Free also happens to have more abundant domestic energy supplies than Germany, well, that’s hardly Joe Biden’s fault.

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This is the Titanic
World Of Finance

This is the Titanic


Before proceeding, we should note that pointing out the flaws in the West’s war response is not “pro-Putin,” nor is it “unpatriotic” as some propagandists on Twitter would have you believe. It is the opposite. Crazy Pills @DoombergT

I wanted to explain that a ''revanchist'' Putin is in fact not a Risk Taker, that he has waited patiently for this moment. 

Our Western Economies are like a bonfire of turbo financialised QE, that the violence of the geoeconomic boomerang is going to be unprecedented. 
Sure Mr. Taleb says ''The Western system is inherently self-correcting. Help preserve it!'' but how do we preserve it with this level of insanity.
The ''Leader of the Free World'' President Biden said his sanctions against Russia would “reduce the Ruble to rubble”
https://bit.ly/3mOhPDb
& Today The RUB is the strongest EMEA currency tand the strongest currency in the World] 
https://twitter.com/x1skv/status/1562442274742579200?s=20&t=5EbvyQyqqZvWR2FsUJ0tjg

The most disturbing part of all is that the parabola has not resulted in any policy shifts, and in fact a doubling down.

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Emmanuel Macron  warned France to  prepare  for a miserable winter in which they must be ready to pay “the price of liberty”
“the price of liberty” which was not engaging with Putin and at least picking a better moment is beyond calculation.

Our Economies are teetering and the downside cascade effects are now in plain sight. Is anyone modelling what is now a cliff edge? 
How many Jobs are about to be vaporized? How many Businesses? Are we going to print more worthless Euros?

Are our Leaders going to spin more weaponized babble? as we career at top speed off the cliff.
The Euro and GBP are at the cliff edge. 

One of the preeminent Thinkers today is @CreditSuisse's Zoltan Pozsar and he said 
The policymakers to follow are no longer central bankers, but heads of state at the pinnacle of power who aren’t known for the transparency of their thinking – especially not when at war. @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar
I have no faith in those at  the pinnacle of power. None. So I expect more babble and a doubling down.


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Sheep spend their entire lives being afraid of the wolf, but end up eaten by the shepherd. Fabio Vighi
Law & Politics



The sacrifice of a sheep (1997) Kourush. Daghestan. RUSSIA Thomas Dworzak @fatalstrategies


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Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity
Law & Politics



Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity


Vanity[a] of vanities, says the Preacher,
vanity of vanities! All is vanity.
A generation goes, and a generation comes,
but the earth remains forever.
The sun rises, and the sun goes down,
and hastens[b] to the place where it rises.
What has been is what will be,
and what has been done is what will be done,
and there is nothing new under the sun.
Is there a thing of which it is said,
“See, this is new”?
It has been already
in the ages before us.
There is no remembrance of former things,[c]
nor will there be any remembrance
of later things[d] yet to be
among those who come after.
Ecclesiastes 1:2-11 2 11 [1]


One of the best descriptions of the current zeitgeist was written in a blog [dated] OCTOBER 30, 2014 BY DOMINIC CUMMINGS The Hollow Men II [2]

Complexity makes prediction hard. Our world is based on extremely complex, nonlinear, interdependent networks (physical, mental, social). 

Properties emerge from feedback between vast numbers of interactions: for example, the war of ant colonies, the immune system’s defences, market prices, and abstract thoughts all emerge from the interaction of millions of individual agents. Interdependence, feedback, and nonlinearity mean that systems are fragile and vulnerable to nonlinear shocks: 

‘big things come from small beginnings’ and problems cascade, ‘they come not single spies / But in battalions’. Prediction is extremely hard even for small timescales. Effective action and (even loose) control are very hard and most endeavours fail.

In the same article Cummings continues

Blofeld: Kronsteen, you are sure this plan is foolproof?
Kronsteen: Yes it is, because I have anticipated every possible variation of counter-move.
Politics therefore suffers from a surfeit of narcissists.

The occupants of No10, like Tolstoy’s characters in War and Peace, are blown around by forces they do not comprehend as they gossip, intrigue, and babble to the media.
The MPs and spin doctors steer their priorities according to the rapidly shifting sands of the pundits who they are all spinning, while the pundits shift (to some extent unconsciously) according to the polls.
The outcome? Everybody rushes around in tailspins assembling circular firing squads while the real dynamics of opinion play out largely untouched by their conscious actions.
In terms of a method to ‘manage’ government, it is not far from tribal elders howling incantations around the camp fire after inspecting the entrails of slaughtered animals. 
Layer on top of this a highly managed media construct which is essentially a Claque where alternative voices are deplatformed and we have an environment which was accurately described thus by @FukuyamaFrancis
The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble.
At a time when what is required is agile multi disciplinary thinking we have ''weaponized babble''

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Russia gas halt tightens energy screws on Europe @Reuters
Law & Politics


Russia gas halt tightens energy screws on Europe @Reuters 


Russia halted gas supplies via Europe's key supply route on Wednesday, intensifying an economic battle between Moscow and Brussels and raising the prospects of recession and energy rationing in some of the region's richest countries.
European governments fear Moscow could extend the outage in retaliation for Western sanctions imposed after it invaded Ukraine and have accused Russia of using energy supplies as a "weapon of war". 

Moscow denies doing this and has cited technical reasons for supply cuts.

Russia's state energy giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said Nord Stream 1, the biggest pipeline carrying gas to its top customer Germany, will be out for maintenance between 0100 GMT on Aug. 31 and 0100 GMT on Sept. 3. 

The pipeline's operator confirmed no gas was flowing on Wednesday morning.
The president of the German network regulator said Germany was now better prepared for the outages as its gas storage was nearly 85% filled and it was securing supplies from other sources.

"We can take gas from the storage in the winter, we are saving gas (and need to keep doing so!), the LNG terminals are coming, and thanks to Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway (and soon France), gas is flowing," Klaus Mueller said on Twitter.

Further restrictions to European gas supplies would deepen an energy crunch that has already triggered a 400% surge in wholesale gas prices since last August, squeezing consumers and businesses and forcing governments to spend billions to ease the burden. 

In Germany, inflation soared to its highest in almost 50 years in August and consumer sentiment is projected to hit a record low for the third month in a row next month as households brace for higher energy bills. 

Unlike last month's 10-day maintenance for Nord Stream 1, the latest work was announced less than two weeks in advance and is being carried out by Gazprom rather than its operator.
Moscow, which slashed supply via the pipeline to 40% of capacity in June and to 20% in July, blames maintenance issues and sanctions it says prevent the return and installation of equipment.
Gazprom said the latest shutdown was needed to perform maintenance on the pipeline's only remaining compressor at the Portovaya station in Russia, saying the work would be carried out jointly with Siemens specialists.
Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE), which has been carrying out maintenance work on compressors and turbines at the station in the past, said on Wednesday it was not involved in the maintenance but stood ready to advise Gazprom if needed. 
Russia has also stopped supplying Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Poland completely, and reduced flows via other pipelines since launching what Moscow calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine. read more
On Tuesday, Gazprom said it would also suspend gas deliveries to its French contractor because of a payments dispute, which France's energy minister called an excuse, but added that the country had anticipated the loss of supply. 
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, on a mission to replace Russian gas imports by mid-2024, earlier this month said Nord Stream 1 was "fully operational" and there were no technical issues as claimed by Moscow.
Europe's largest economy is filling its gas storage facilities faster than expected, but it is not yet enough to get the country through winter, he said.
The reduced flows via Nord Stream have complicated efforts across Europe to save enough gas to make it through the winter months, when governments fear Russia may halt flows altogether.
"It is something of a miracle that gas filling levels in Germany have continued to rise nonetheless," Commerzbank analysts wrote, noting the country has so far managed to buy enough at higher prices elsewhere.
In the meantime, some Europeans are voluntarily cutting their energy consumption, including limiting their use of electrical appliances and showering at work to save money while companies are bracing for possible rationing.
With storage tanks filled in 83.65%, Germany is already close to its 85% target set for Oct. 1, but it has warned reaching 95% by Nov. 1 would be a stretch unless companies and households drastically cut consumption.
For the European Union as a whole, the current storage level is 80.17%, already ahead of the 80% target set for Oct. 1, when the continent's heating season starts.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said their base case assumption was that the latest Nord Stream 1 outage would not be extended.
"If it did, there would be no more element of surprise and reduced revenues, while low flows and the occasional drop to zero have the potential to keep market volatility and political pressure on Europe higher," they said.

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24 August 2022 : in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia... War and Industrial Policy @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar
Law & Politics



24 August 2022 : in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia... War and Industrial Policy @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar




: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia...

...that’s 100-times leverage more than Lehman’s.


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The value of wages in the EU is crashing hard. Higher unemployment. More money printing. More debt. Higher inflation. Recession. Depression. Times are getting really tough. EU leaders may soon be facing a modern revolution. @KimDotcom
Law & Politics

The value of wages in the EU is crashing hard. Resulting in less consumer spending. Reduced production. Higher unemployment. More money printing. More debt. Higher inflation. Recession. Depression. Times are getting really tough. EU leaders may soon be facing a modern revolution.

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This is the Titanic continued
Law & Politics


This is the Titanic



Our Economies are teetering and the downside cascade effects are now in plain sight. Is anyone modelling what is now a cliff edge? 
How many Jobs are about to be vaporized? How many Businesses? Are we going to print more worthless Euros?

Are our Leaders going to spin more weaponized babble? as we career at top speed off the cliff.


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Taiwan said on Wednesday it would exercise its right to self defence and “counter-attack” if Chinese armed forces entered its territory
Law & Politics


Taiwan said on Wednesday it would exercise its right to self defence and “counter-attack” if Chinese armed forces entered its territory


Taiwanese defence officials said China’s “high intensity” military patrols near Taiwan continued and Beijing’s intention of making the Taiwan Strait separating the two sides its “inner sea” would become the main source of instability in the region.
“For aircraft and ships that entered our sea and air territory of 12 nautical miles, the national army will exercise right to self-defence and counter attack without exception,” Lin Wen-Huang, deputy chief of the general staff for operations and planning, told reporters at a news briefing.
Taiwan has complained of Chinese drones repeatedly flying close to its small groups of islands near China’s coast.
The military will exercise the same right to “counter-attack” Chinese drones that did not heed warnings to leave its territory after posing threats, Lin added.
Taiwan fired warning shots at a Chinese drone for the first time on Tuesday shortly after President Tsai Ing-wen ordered Taiwan’s military to take “strong countermeasures” against what she termed Chinese provocations.
China’s Foreign Ministry this week dismissed complaints from Taiwan about drone harassment as “not worth fussing about”, prompting Taipei to label Beijing as nothing more than thieves.
In the same briefing, Ma Cheng-Kun, a director from military academy National Defence University, said China might further move to reject passage of foreign naval ships through the strait without its permission.
“After the new military normal status has been consolidated, then the risk of collision will increase if foreign naval ships insist on the rights of navigation and freedom,” he said.
U.S. warships and those from allied nations such as Britain and Canada have routinely sailed through the strait in recent years, including two U.S. Navy warships last week.
Taiwan’s armed forces are well-equipped but dwarfed by China’s. 

Tsai is overseeing a modernisation programme and has made increasing defence spending a priority.
China has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. 

Taipei rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying that the People’s Republic of China has never ruled the island and that only Taiwan’s people can decide their future.

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Strategic context: It's all about the maritime century. In the broadest sense, whether it's the Black Sea or the Taiwan Strait, the key strategic link is between the sea as a space for communication and manoeuvre @alessionaval
Law & Politics

Strategic context: It's all about the maritime century. In the broadest sense, whether it's the Black Sea or the Taiwan Strait, the key strategic link is between the sea as a space for communication and manoeuvre and either can be leverage for political gains

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Think about the Black Sea and Taiwan: blockade as an instrument of signalling and coercion. Whether as economic coercion/strangulation, or to isolate the target from the global economic order @alessionaval
Law & Politics


Think about the Black Sea and Taiwan: blockade as an instrument of signalling and coercion. Whether as economic coercion/strangulation, or to isolate the target from the global economic order - This is central to contemporary strategy. 

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23-AUG-2021 :: Xi Jinping is on a winning streak ever since he started salami slicing his then adversary President Obama.
Law & Politics


23-AUG-2021 :: Xi Jinping is on a winning streak ever since he started salami slicing his then adversary President Obama.



It is inevitable he will roll the dice on Taiwan 

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JoeBiden is in a Pincer with Xi & Vladimir holding the console & ratcheting up the pressure & they own the timing on the Ukraine Taiwan Two Step
Law & Politics


Donald Rumsfeld Thesis of the US need to be prepared to fight in two different theatres simultaneously is set to be tested  Taiwan Ukraine




1-4-2-1


1-4-2-1. The first 1 refers to defending what has since come to be called the homeland. 

The 4 refers to deterring hostilities in four key regions of the world. 

The 2 means the U.S. armed forces must have the strength to win swiftly in two near-simultaneous conflicts in those regions. 

The final 1 means that we must win one of those conflicts “decisively,” toppling the enemy’s regime.



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China might further move to reject passage of foreign naval ships through the strait without its permission. @Reuters
Law & Politics


China might further move to reject passage of foreign naval ships through the strait without its permission. @Reuters     


“After the new military normal status has been consolidated, then the risk of collision will increase if foreign naval ships insist on the rights of navigation and freedom,” he said.
U.S. warships and those from allied nations such as Britain and Canada have routinely sailed through the strait in recent years, including two U.S. Navy warships last week.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ



Euro 1.001585
Dollar Index 109.056
Japan Yen 139.434
Swiss Franc 0.97999
Pound 1.158270 
Aussie 0.681825
India Rupee 79.3200
South Korea Won 1352.955 
Brazil Real 5.1835 
Egypt Pound 19.228800 
South Africa Rand 17.179125

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DXY - THE KEY TO EVERYTHING. @Bellehos 109.056
World Currencies


DXY - THE KEY TO EVERYTHING. @Bellehos 109.056



It has reached a FULL EXTENSION on the SUPER CYCLE.  
The lynch-pin to the grenade that DETONATES markets.
SIGMA EVENTS happen when the dollar is out of control.   
Labeling this a MASSIVE LEVEL does not make it justice.  It is the asset to watch.

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Jul 3 One can create inorganic cascade like price moves in the derivatives market and thereby control the physical commodity.
Commodities

Jul 3 One can create inorganic cascade like price moves in the derivatives market and thereby control the physical commodity. 

The challenge is where the Supply/Demand balance is precarious and a small adjustment [reduce Supply or increase Demand] tips the situation into disequilibrium. 
The Tail will no longer wag the Dog and the Dog will simply run amok.

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Oil Market "Completely Broken" Says World's Largest Commodity Hedge Fund Trader @AndurandPierre @zerohedge
Commodities


Oil Market "Completely Broken" Says World's Largest Commodity Hedge Fund Trader @AndurandPierre @zerohedge 


Echoing what we said first two months ago ("Inside The Oil Market's Jekyll-And-Hyde Moment"), 

an observation confirmed first by Goldman on more than one occasion (here and here), 

and also the Saudi Energy minister bin Salman who one week ago said that “the paper and physical markets have become increasingly more disconnected” due to lack of liquidity, 

this morning none other than Pierre Andurand, the head of the world's largest oil hedge fund and the commodities trader known for his bullish calls (and record gains in the past year) tweeted 

that the oil futures market is now "completely broken" as futures can now move $10 lower a day “for no apparent reason” 

As Goldman explained previously, the financial market for oil is indeed broken due to a total collapse in liquidity and lack of hedging, which has led oil prices to have daily swings of more than $5 over a dozen times this year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

While such moves once would have been considered out of the ordinary one upon a time, with open interest in oil futures at a seven-year low, bigger fluctuations have become the norm.  

Combined open interest on the four main Brent and WTI contracts fell below 4 billion barrels for the first time since June 2015 last week, Standard Chartered said in a note

while Goldman pointed out yesterday that both net spec length (i.e., outright bulls) and open interest have cratered.

“The market has stopped even asking why we are down $5 in a session or why we are down $2.50 this morning,” said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at ICAP.
Yet while financial markets remain skittish and continue pressing oil prices lower, the fundamental, physical market has become extremely tight,

 and as Goldman warned most recently yesterday, we may not be too far from an explosive move higher as the collapse in inventory finally spooks all the oil shorts and the same illquidity that has pushed oil lower sends it to all time highs.

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The oil market is playing a game of chicken with Saudi Arabia, Now the market is kind of saying 'show me the cuts', or we short the market further. OPEC+ meets (virtually) on Sep 5 | #OOTT @JavierBlas
Commodities


The oil market is playing a game of chicken with Saudi Arabia, Now the market is kind of saying 'show me the cuts', or we short the market further. OPEC+ meets (virtually) on Sep 5 | #OOTT @JavierBlas

The oil market is playing a game of chicken with Saudi Arabia, which went on the record last week flagging the potential of production cuts. Now the market is kind of saying 'show me the cuts', or we short the market further. OPEC+ meets (virtually) on Sep 5 | #OOTT

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“the price of liberty”
Commodities

“the price of liberty”
The most disturbing part of all is that the parabola has not resulted in any policy shifts, and in fact a doubling down.

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Sunday, April 10, 2022 Apocalypse Now
World Of Finance



Sunday, April 10, 2022 Apocalypse Now


“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

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Jul 3 The Tail will no longer wag the Dog and the Dog will simply run amok.
World Of Finance

Jul 3 The Tail will no longer wag the Dog and the Dog will simply run amok.

The challenge is where the Supply/Demand balance is precarious and a small adjustment [reduce Supply or increase Demand] tips the situation into disequilibrium. 
The Tail will no longer wag the Dog and the Dog will simply run amok.

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Foreign direct investment (#FDI) inflows to #Ethiopia amounted to $806 million in Q1 2022, new central bank data show. Almost unchanged from the two previous quarters. @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa

Foreign direct investment (#FDI) inflows to #Ethiopia amounted to $806 million in Q1 2022, new central bank data show. Almost unchanged from the two previous quarters. @PatrickHeinisc1

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Inflation climbed to a 62-month high of 8.5 percent from 8.3 percent last month. @BD_Africa
Law & Politics


Inflation climbed to a 62-month high of 8.5 percent from 8.3 percent last month. @BD_Africa



“The rise in inflation was mainly due to increase in prices of commodities under food and non-alcoholic beverages (15.3 percent), transport (7.6 percent) and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (5.6 percent) between August 2021 and August 202, ” Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

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NCBA Group is investing Sh2 billion in its Tanzanian subsidiary this year to shore up its capital @NCBABankKenya @BD_Africa
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


NCBA Group is investing Sh2 billion in its Tanzanian subsidiary this year to shore up its capital @NCBABankKenya @BD_Africa 


NCBA Group is investing Sh2 billion in its Tanzanian subsidiary this year to shore up its capital which was eroded by losses and a rise in defaults due to the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The new capital injection into NCBA Bank Tanzania Limited is part of efforts to improve the performance of the regional subsidiaries that have recorded lower profitability compared to the mainstay Kenyan market.
“We have made Sh1 billion investment in Tanzania so far to support capital and we intend to continue with more investment and make another close to Sh1 billion by the end of the year,” NCBA chief executive John Gachora said.
“We had closed four branches this year. We don’t plan to open the branches but what we are doing is reconfiguring the business to go after corporates and we need to lend them more money and therefore need more capital to do so. The investment is really to support business growth in Tanzania.”
The Tanzanian subsidiary made a net loss of Sh1.1 billion in the year ended December 2021, larger than the Sh770 million net loss recorded the year before.
The performance was attributed to an increase in bad loans and provisions for the same. The subsidiary’s non-performing loans ratio stood at 20.3 percent which is significantly above the recommended level of five percent.

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BK Group Plc
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

BK Group Plc 


Total income: KES 10.1bn, +5.5% y/y

Total operating costs: KES 4.2bn, +32.9% y/y

Pre-provision income: KES 5.9bn, -7.9% y/y

Net income: KES 3.3bn, +24.5% y/y


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@BritamEA Britam Holdings Ltd HY 22 EPS 0.23 versus 0.14 +64.285%
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


@BritamEA Britam Holdings Ltd HY 22 EPS 0.23 versus 0.14 +64.285%


Closing Price:           6.34
Total Shares Issued:          2523486816.00
Market Capitalization:        15,998,906,413
EPS:             0.02
PE:                 317.000



BRITAM Holdings reports 6 month results through 30th June 2022 versus 6 months through 30th june 2021

HY 22 Gross earned premium & Fund management Fees 15.785054b versus 14.858244b
HY 22 Less reinsurance premium ceded [3.211564b] versus [2.891533b]
HY 22 Net earned revenue 12.573490b versus 11.966711b
HY 22 Investment income 6.202042b versus 4.926603b
HY 22 [Losses]gains on financial assets at fair Value through Profit & Loss [3.468102b] versus 1.366200b
HY 22 Commissions earned 674.091m versus 775.867m
HY 22 Other Income 389.126m versus 665.806m
HY 22 Total Income 16.370647b versus 19.701187b
HY 22 Net Insurance claims increase in policyholder's benefits and loss adjustment expenses 9.247174b versus 9.387887b
HY 22 Interest payments 410.472m versus 2.357487b
HY 22 Operating & Other expenses 3.813636b versus 4.902854b
HY 22 Commissions expense 1.757734b versus 2.041288b
HY 22 Total Expenses 15.352492b versus 18.886876b
HY 22 share of gain [loss] of associate 24.758m versus [166.889m]
HY 22 Profit before Tax 1.042913b versus 647.422
HY 22 Profit for the period 667.530m versus 376.301m
HY 22 Comprehensive income for the period 782.998m versus 1.232555b
HY 22 EPS 0.23 versus 0.14 +64.285% 
HY 22 Total Assets 151.269805b versus 153.427336b
HY 22 Cash at end of period 8.256485b versus 8.569653b

Commentary

significant improvement in Profit before Tax
Group continued to experience growth in revenues from both local and regional businesses
Investment income grew 26% to 6.2b compared to 4.9b
underlying operating expenses ratio was at 30% down from 32%
Group's profitability was negatively impacted by fair value losses on investment assets especially on its fixed income instruments



Conclusions



An improving Trajectory

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TotalEnergiesKE Total Kenya Ltd. HY 22 EPS 1.26 versus 2.7
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


TotalEnergiesKE Total Kenya Ltd. HY 22 EPS 1.26 versus 2.7



Closing Price:           24.95
Total Shares Issued:          175028706.00
Market Capitalization:        4,366,966,215
EPS:             4.35
PE:                 5.736

.@TotalEnergiesKE reports 6 month results through 30th June 2022 versus 6 month results through 30th June 2021

HY 22 Total Assets 50.414089b versus 47.030094b
HY 22 Gross Sales 65.441957b versus 51.821407b
HY 22 Net Sales 46.236498b versus 34.482725b +34%
HY 22 Cost of Sales [42.221745b] versus [29.815638b]
HY 22 Gross Profit 4.014753b versus 4.667087b
HY 22 Other Income 748.497m versus 951.547m

HY 22 Operating expenses [3.329687b] versus [3.126289b]

HY 22 Finance Costs [149.119m] versus [6.029m]

HY 22 Profit before Tax 1.236191b versus 2.483477b

HY 22 EPS 1.26 versus 2.7

HY 22 Cash and Cash Equivalents 10.560785b versus 9.873693b

Commentary

Gross Profit decreased mainly due to lag in price adjustment arising from a sharp increase in fuel prices.

Other Income decreased due to absence of a non recurring sundry income arising from gain on disposal of land assets that was realised in 21.

Revenues from diversified investments in Shops, Foods & Services [SFS] and income from partnerships with third parties increased in the period   
Increase in working capital requirements emanating from increase in oil prices and compensation from government fuel stabilisation program led to increased financing costs in the review period

No Dividend 

Conclusions

The Majors have the capacity to weather the government fuel stabilisation program

 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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