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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 15th of September 2022
 




September 1, 1939 by W. H. Auden
Misc.

September 1, 1939 by W. H. Auden



But who can live for long
In an euphoric dream;
Out of the mirror they stare,

Faces along the bar
Cling to their average day:
The lights must never go out,
The music must always play

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This is an existential war. A do or die affair, Pepe Escobar @PepeEscobarPT
Law & Politics

This is an existential war. A do or die affair, Pepe Escobar @PepeEscobarPT 

Wars are not won by psyops. Ask Nazi Germany. Still, it’s been a howler to watch NATOstan media on Kharkov, gloating in unison about “the hammer blow that knocks out Putin”, “the Russians are in trouble”, and assorted inanities.
Facts: Russian forces withdrew from the territory of Kharkov to the left bank of the Oskol river, where they are now entrenched. 

A Kharkov-Donetsk-Lugansk line seems to be stable. Krasny Liman is threatened, besieged by superior Ukrainian forces, but not lethally.
No one – not even Maria Zakharova, the contemporary female equivalent of Hermes, the messenger of the Gods – knows what the Russian General Staff (RGS) plans, in this case and all others. If they say they do, they are lying.
As it stands, what may be inferred with a reasonable degree of certainty is that a line – Svyatogorsk-Krasny Liman-Yampol-Belogorovka – can hold out long enough with their current garrisons until fresh Russian forces are able to swoop in and force the Ukrainians back beyond the Seversky Donets line.
All hell broke loose – virtually – on why Kharkov happened. 

The people’s republics and Russia never had enough men to defend a 1,000 km-long frontline. NATO’s entire intel capabilities noticed – and profited from it.
There were no Russian Armed Forces in those settlements: only Rosgvardia, and these are not trained to fight military forces.  

Kiev attacked with an advantage of around 5 to 1. The allied forces retreated to avoid encirclement. There are no Russian troop losses because there were no Russian troops in the region.

Arguably this may have been a one-off. The NATO-run Kiev forces simply can’t do a replay anywhere in Donbass, or in Kherson, or in Mariupol. These are all protected by strong, regular Russian Army units.
It’s practically a given that if the Ukrainians remain around Kharkov and Izyum they will be pulverized by massive Russian artillery. 

Military analyst Konstantin Sivkov maintains that, “most combat-ready formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now being grounded (…) we managed to lure them into the open and are now systematically destroying them.”
The NATO-run Ukrainian forces, crammed with NATO mercenaries, had spent 6 months hoarding equipment and reserving trained assets exactly for this Kharkov moment – while dispatching disposables into a massive meat grinder. 

It will be very hard to sustain an assembly line of substantial prime assets to pull off something similar again.
The next days will show whether Kharkov and Izyum are connected to a much larger NATO push. The mood in NATO-controlled EU is approaching Desperation Row. 

There’s a strong possibility this counter-offensive signifies NATO entering the war for good, while displaying quite tenuous plausible deniability: their veil of – fake – secrecy cannot disguise the presence of “advisers” and mercenaries all across the spectrum.
Decommunization as de-energization
The Special Military Operation (SMO), conceptually, is not about conquering territory per se: it is, or it was, so far, about protection of Russophone citizens in occupied territories, thus demilitarization cum denazification.
That concept may be about to be tweaked. And that’s where the tortuous, tricky debate on Russia mobilization fits in. 

Yet even a partial mobilization may not be necessary: what’s needed are reserves to properly allow allied forces to cover rear/defensive lines. 

Hardcore fighters of the Kadyrov contingent kind would continue to play offense.
It’s undeniable that Russian troops lost a strategically important node in Izyum. Without it, the complete liberation of Donbass becomes significantly harder.
Yet for the collective West, whose carcass slouches inside a vast simulacra bubble, it’s the pysops that matters much more than a minor military advance: thus all that gloating on Ukraine being able to drive the Russians out of the whole of Kharkov in only four days – while they had 6 months to liberate Donbass, and didn’t.
So, across the West, the reigning perception – frantically fomented by psyops experts – is that the Russian military were hit by that “hammer blow” and will hardly recover.
Kharkov was preciously timed – as General Winter is around the corner; the Ukraine issue was already suffering from public opinion fatigue; and the propaganda machine needed a boost to turbo-lubricate the multi-billion dollar weaponizing rat line.
Yet Kharkov may have forced Moscow’s hand to increase the pain dial. That came via a few well-placed Mr. Kinzhals leaving the Black Sea and the Caspian to present their business cards to the largest thermal power plants in northeast and central Ukraine (most of the energy infrastructure is in the southeast).
Half of Ukraine suddenly lost power and water. Trains came to a halt. If Moscow decides to take out all major Ukraine substations at once, all it takes is a few missiles to totally smash the Ukrainian energy grid – adding a new meaning to “decommunization”: de-energization.
According to an expert analysis, “if transformers of 110-330 kV are damaged, then it will almost never be possible to put it into operation (…) And if this happens at least at 5 substations at the same time, then everything is kaput. Stone age forever.”
Russian government official Marat Bashirov was way more colorful: 

“Ukraine is being plunged into the 19th century. If there is no energy system, there will be no Ukrainian army. The matter of fact is that General Volt came to the war, followed by General Moroz (“frost”).

And that’s how we might be finally entering “real war” territory – as in Putin’s notorious quip that “we haven’t even started anything yet.”
A definitive response will come from the RSG in the next few days.
Once again, a fiery debate rages on what Russia will do next (the RGS, after all, is inscrutable, except for Yoda Patrushev).
The RGS may opt for a serious strategic strike of the decapitating kind elsewhere – as in changing the subject for the worse (for NATO).
It may opt for sending more troops to protect the front line (without partial mobilization).
And most of all it may enlarge the SMO mandate – going to total destruction of Ukrainian transport/energy infrastructure, from gas fields to thermal power plants, substations, and shutting down nuclear power plants.
Well, it could always be a mix of all of the above: a Russian version of Shock and Awe – generating an unprecedented socio-economic catastrophe. 

That has already been telegraphed by Moscow: we can revert you to the Stone Age at any time and in a matter of hours (italics mine). 

Your cities will greet General Winter with zero heating, freezing water, power outages and no connectivity.
A counter-terrorist operation
All eyes are on whether “centers of decision” – as in Kiev – may soon get a Kinzhal visit. This would signify Moscow has had enough. 

The siloviki certainly did. But we’re not there – yet. Because for an eminently diplomatic Putin the real game revolves around those gas supplies to the EU, that puny plaything of American foreign policy.
Putin is certainly aware that the internal front is under some pressure. He refuses even partial mobilization.

A perfect indicator of what may happen in winter is the referenda in liberated territories. 

The limit date is November 4 – the Day of National Unity, a commemoration introduced in 2004 to replace the celebration of the October revolution.
With the accession of these territories to Russia, any Ukrainian counter-offensive would qualify as an act of war against regions incorporated into the Russian Federation. Everyone knows what that means.
It may now be painfully obvious that when the collective West is waging war – hybrid and kinetic, with everything from massive intel to satellite data and hordes of mercenaries – against you, and you insist on conducting a hazily-defined Special Military Operation (SMO), you may be up for some nasty surprises.
So the SMO status may be about to change: it’s bound to become a counter-terrorist operation.
This is an existential war. A do or die affair. The American geopolitical /geoeconomic goal, to put it bluntly, is to destroy Russian unity, impose regime change and plunder all those immense natural resources

Ukrainians are nothing but cannon fodder: in a sort of twisted History remake, the modern equivalents of the pyramid of skulls Timur cemented into 120 towers when he razed Baghdad in 1401.
If may take a “hammer blow” for the RSG to wake up. Sooner rather than later, gloves – velvet and otherwise – will be off. Exit SMO. Enter War.


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Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity
Law & Politics



Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity


In terms of a method to ‘manage’ government, it is not far from tribal elders howling incantations around the camp fire after inspecting the entrails of slaughtered animals. 
Layer on top of this a highly managed media construct which is essentially a Claque where alternative voices are deplatformed and we have an environment which was accurately described thus by @FukuyamaFrancis
The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble.
At a time when what is required is agile multi disciplinary thinking we have ''weaponized babble''

Meanwhile Our Leaders make speeches at  Davos, dress up in military fatigues and call for Regime change. It is a complete farce.

Narratives are more powerful than facts until reality intrudes. No matter how long it takes. The trick is understanding when the turn is to take place. @paulburrer 

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Doing ‘Whatever It Takes’ to Keep Europe in ‘Intervention Lockstep’ (paraphrasing Jaroslav Zajiček, Czech Coreper Ambassador Alastair CROOKE
Law & Politics


Doing ‘Whatever It Takes’ to Keep Europe in ‘Intervention Lockstep’ (paraphrasing Jaroslav Zajiček, Czech Coreper Ambassador Alastair CROOKE


The EU leadership is resolved to ignore protest messaging, however loud it becomes.
There is a whiff of desperation floating across the Brussels battlespace. Forget the Ukraine war – that is a lost cause, and just a matter of time, until its final unravelling; yet the Ukraine – as icon of how the Euro-élite have elected to imagine themselves – could not be less existential. 

It is (cynically) seen in Brussels to be key to keeping the 27 member states in ‘lockstep’ that is – and an opportunity for a power grab: ‘We Europeans are ‘victims’, like Ukraine, of Putin’s actions’; ‘All must sacrifice to the newly installed command ‘war economy’’.
Consider the fears (as perceived by Brussels) of abandoning Ukraine to plead with Moscow for gas and oil. 

A speech by President Macron last week gave a ‘teaser’ to what might follow: Macron told an ambassadors’ conference in the Élysée last week, that the EU should not allow East European warmongers to determine EU foreign policy, or even allow East Europeans to act unilaterally in support of Kiev. 

“A commentator joked that Macron at least avoided Jacques Chirac’s infamous remark that Eastern Europeans had missed an opportunity to ‘shut up’”.
The EU Establishment therefore are acting with alacrity to ensure ‘a 27 lockstep cohesion’ against the risk of consensus dissolving before the nightmare scenario of an Euro 2 trillion increase in gas and power spending; a hike in unitary energy bills by 200% across Europe (that amounts to 20% of household disposable income) (figures from Goldman Sachs Research). 

The large demonstrations in Europe over the last weekend were clear in their message: ‘We want the gas back. F*** NATO’.
The EU leadership is resolved to ignore such protest messaging, however loud it becomes.
Russia says that unless sanctions are lifted, no gas will flow through Nordstream 1. It is a gun at the EU head (in response to the sanctions imposed on Russia). 

Were the EU leadership however, to attend to the protestors’ call for the EU to forget Ukraine and lift sanctions on Russia, East Europeans would of course put another gun to the EU head (the veto over EU foreign policy issues). Macron is right.
That is the internal prospect of dissolution. Externally, the view is no more rosy. There is a marked lessening of respect for EU values across the non-West. Its standing is eroding. 

Africa and the Global South stand aloof over Ukraine; OPEC+ has made its position abundantly clear by actually cutting crude production (100,000 barrels/day); and Iran just blew the EU a raspberry by saying ‘no deal’ until the ‘unresolved uranium particle issues’ are closed.
As a Global Times editorial this week explained: “Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the U.S. and its allies have tried to make others support their sanctions, but didn’t bother to think why their baton is no longer working. Quite simply, the West’s waning influence is because of their abuse of power, selfishly disregarding and preying on the interests of other countries. How can the international community trust the West after all it has done?”.
No OPEC or Iranian oil as salve to the EU ‘sacrifice’ for Ukraine. Many in the non-West rather, are migrating to the BRICS and the SCO alliance.
Nevertheless, the EU is sticking to its ‘Saving Ukraine’ principles. So, after “labouring non-stop through the weekend”, the EU is proposing ‘historic interventions’ in the energy market – including a levy on excess profits of electricity and energy companies, and measures ranging from gas-price caps to a suspension of power derivatives trading.
In a word, every other commodity market is about to be ‘regulated’ or capped to death. 

And the EU is taking its ‘economic war with Russia’ to an explicitly very literal interpretation:
The so-called internal market ‘emergency instrument’, “set to be presented on September 13, lays out several stages that open up varying powers to the Commission depending on the situation”. 

Via this new instrument the Commission will seek emergency powers giving it the right to re-organise supply chains; sequester corporate assets; re-write commercial contracts with suppliers and customers; order companies to stockpile strategic reserves; and force them to prioritise EU orders over exports.
Hmmm. If adopted, that would transform the EU literally into a wartime Command Economy.
It would also Gulliverise member-states into lockstep conformity through the centralised control supervising of the entire matrix of economic infrastructure – from which there will be no opt-outs (because … because ‘we must all scarifice’).
So, Europe will not ration what little energy it gets by price; but rather, it will subsidise industrial production and households – even if the newly printed funding involved means pushing Europe into an inflationary depression and currency collapse. 

The numbers and liquidity required to do this likely will be massive. Germany’s consumer bailout alone comes in at $65 billion.
But these subsidies miss the point. They may offer European consumers some short-term relief, but costs aren’t the main problem.

 The problem remains whether oil and natural gas will be available at any meaningful price – price is moot when supply nears zero.
Supply is one thing. The structural contradictions to this command economy construct however, are quite another. 

How exactly does this explicitly inflationary ‘bailout’ pair with the ECB’s determination to raise rates in order to fight inflation? Clearly it doesn’t. 

Borrowing or printing money to pay for imported energy (in dollars) – while running rising twin deficits – is a great way to destroy one’s currency. 

And it means inflation is not transitory. Thus, by force of logic, the EU must ration by diktat (just as in war). But how?
In kinetic war, the answers are much more predictable: Prioritise the industrial manufacture of artillery shells and tanks. 

In economic war, aimed at achieving something rather different – the basic functioning of a diverse consumer economy – the choices are not so obvious: i.e. domestic household heating vs manufacturers’ operational needs; low energy usage industry vs intensive industrial use; industries serving consumer strategic needs vs luxury or security needs; and balancing equity vs high level political connections.
These are the kind of questions economists in fully planned systems ask daily – and get wrong because they have no pricing mechanisms or feedback mechanisms on which to steer their decisions.
Okay, so we all know that the Pavlovian EU answer will be simply to pour money into renewables, but will that be the right answer? 

Europe’s business model basically is high end (i.e. costly) production, leveraged on the input of cheap energy from Russia. 

As Credit Suisse guru, Zoltan Poszar, has adduced: No less than $2 trillion of German manufacturing added-value is contingent on a mere $20 billion of gas from Russia – that is 100-times leverage. 

It is a hugely inverted pyramid resting on a relatively tiny apex of fossil fuel. 

Does anyone really believe that low energy-intensive windmills will keep that $2 trillion of German output levitated?
Separately, but as part of the collective West’s financial war on Russia, the G7 finance ministers have agreed to proceed with a plan to cap the price of Russian oil exports. 

This initiative would not replace G7 countries’, or the EU’s separate embargoes on Russian oil, but would be supplemental.
Since over 90% of the world’s ships are insured through London-based insurers like Lloyds of London, U.S. and EU officials expect the initiative to impact Russian energy revenues massively. 

The cap would be actuated through the “comprehensive prohibition of (insurance) services” that would be permitted only where the cargoes are purchased at, or below a price, that will be set by a “broad coalition of countries”.
This scheme essentially is the brainchild of U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen: “This price cap is one of the most powerful tools we have to fight inflation and protect workers and businesses in the United States and globally from future price spikes caused by global disruptions.”
In Yellen’s vision, the price would be set above the price level that Russia requires to balance its national budget (and thus incentivise Russia to continue to pump oil); yet be below the price required to keep western economies thriving – and low enough deeply to cut into Russia’s oil revenues, thereby weakening its economy, and its war effort.
But it won’t work. Russia can easily replace Western insurance. 

The two main paths are self-insurance (you reserve part of your revenues in a fund to pay claims if needed), and captive insurance (you set up your own insurance companies with participation by affected parties). 

Shakespeare actually described it in The Merchant of Venice in 1598.
Simply put, Russia can easily get insurance on other markets not participating in the boycott including Dubai, India, and China – along with Russia itself. 

So, insurance will not serve as an effective weapon against Russia, and the price cap will fail.
In essence, Russia has both effectively won the military war in Ukraine, and the global financial sanctions war (though both are far from over). 

The longer the denial continues, the more Europe will be hurt economically. That is obvious; and also obvious is that it will be ugly this winter in Europe.
Yet so far, the EU leadership is doubling down on its mistakes, as they see the situation serving their wider ambitions. 

The early pandemic period in Europe was characterised by member states putting their own national needs – somewhat chaotically – first (albeit, against the background of EU total ineptitude). 

Social distancing was 1m in one country, 2m in another; while masks requirements and rules for social gatherings were all over the place – and in Germany even changed from one region to another.
The EU Establishment, however, did belatedly take action. It smelled from this crisis the pungent aroma of opportunity: It embarked on a power grab. 

It seized Euro-wide control over vaccine procedures, travel restrictions and, with lockdown, emergency powers over citizens’ lives.
With the energy-cut off, the EU again is invoking ‘emergency powers’, amid bleak fear-inducing media headlines. 

It is perceived in Brussels as a further opportunity for the élite to impose intervention ‘lockstep’ on the 27, and to seize central control over matters that formerly were national competences (often subject to parliamentary accountability).
The caps and regulations are in process, and on 13 September the EU will consider giving itself said powers to ‘re-organise’ supply lines; sequester assets; re-write commercial contracts; order stock piling and assert the primacy of EU orders over all others.
The energy crisis will be ‘used’ in this way. The objective is always central control. 

For the ideologues it is now also the chance to ‘speed up de-fossilisation’ and to decry ‘backsliding on renewables’ – whatever the pain imposed on citizens. This messaging is flooding European websites.
The (Green Party) German foreign minister said it plainly: I will put Ukraine first “no matter what my German voters think”, or how hard their life gets.
Were one to ask, is this then the WEF (‘Davos’) agenda unfolding? It would be difficult to give a categoric ‘no’.
In any event, the EU is built as a steamroller steadily crushing flat the path towards more central control; more news management; more citizen surveillance. 

The acquis, the ECJ, and the bureaucracy simply grind forwards in unstoppable momentum: Reverse gear was never included. 

In fact, the architecture has almost no provision for reversal, except by invoking Article 50 – quitting the Union, and that intentionally has been made unbearably painful.
So, expect the EU leaders dogmatically to persist with transforming the EU into a Soviet-style command economy. And even to seek more powers, the more the economy weakens. 

The EU is sanguine that public protests can, and will be, repressed forcibly (possibly with the army on the streets). 

Protests have begun. However, it is only September, and the haze of summer still lingers on … winter beckons, yet somehow seems a distance away.
What is certain is that with the EU massively supporting demand through widespread bailouts – at a time of already reduced supply and aggravated by command economy type disruptions and shortages – higher inflation is coming, and the Euro will be ‘toast’.
Is there a way out? Perhaps a figure will arise, taking all by surprise. Maybe the Euro crashing and the U.S. November midterm election outcomes will be the catalyst that will allow such a figure to arise and articulate a vision that seems to offer some solution. 

The solution, after all, is pretty obvious. But first, comes the pain.

This is the Titanic



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The sacrifice of a sheep (1997) Kourush. Daghestan. RUSSIA Thomas Dworzak @fatalstrategies
Law & Politics


The sacrifice of a sheep (1997) Kourush. Daghestan. RUSSIA Thomas Dworzak @fatalstrategies


Sheep spend their entire lives being afraid of the wolf, but end up eaten by the shepherd. Fabio Vighi

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24 August 2022 : in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia... War and Industrial Policy @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar
Law & Politics



24 August 2022 : in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia... War and Industrial Policy @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar




: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia...

...that’s 100-times leverage more than Lehman’s.


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Woman in Lebanon holding up a bank to get her own money, which is frozen by the bank due to the financial crisis. This is the second time this has happened in a month. Last guy was let go with no charges. Via @sebusher @_RichardHall
Law & Politics



Woman in Lebanon holding up a bank to get her own money, which is frozen by the bank due to the financial crisis. This is the second time this has happened in a month. Last guy was let go with no charges. Via  @sebusher @_RichardHall


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ

Euro 0.996440
Dollar Index 109.837
Japan Yen 143.520
Swiss Franc 0.96375 
Pound 1.151710
Aussie 0.675265
India Rupee 79.54865
South Korea Won 1392.90
Brazil Real 5.1644
Egypt Pound 19.373800 
South Africa Rand 17.494400

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The new pattern became stark in August, the first time since 1983 that sterling fell more than 4% against the dollar and the 10-year gilt rose by as much as 50 basis points. @BruceReuters
World Currencies


The new pattern became stark in August, the first time since 1983 that sterling fell more than 4% against the dollar and the 10-year gilt rose by as much as 50 basis points. @BruceReuters


The synchronicity across British assets suggests investors are shunning them, reflecting concerns about the economy.
Britain's heavy reliance on energy imports is likely to mean inflation - which in July hit a 40-year high of 10.1% and only eased slightly in August - will last for longer than elsewhere. 

For the first time on record, British fuel imports accounted for more than 20% of the value of all goods imports in July.

Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney famously said Britain relied on the "kindness of strangers" to finance its current account gap, most of which stems from the trade deficit.
When Carney made that comment in early 2016, foreign direct investment accounted for about half of the net financial inflows from abroad.
Now, those FDI flows have turned steeply negative in net terms, leaving sales of flightier equities and bonds as Britain's main means of financing its current account gap over the past year.

"We suspect at least some on the committee have observed the simultaneous sell-off in sterling and gilts with no small degree of concern," Nabarro said. "In our view, these risks should increasingly be at the centre of the UK policy discussion."
Investors await the government's costings of its new energy bill package which Dutch bank Rabobank reckons could mean 100 billion pounds more borrowing. Others say it could be more.
''That is a lot to ask," said Stefan Koopman, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.
"There is risk of a funding strike, which to some extent has already shown up in the form of a weaker currency."

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Does anyone really believe that low energy-intensive windmills will keep that $2 trillion of German output levitated? Alastair CROOKE
Minerals, Oil & Energy

Does anyone really believe that low energy-intensive windmills will keep that $2 trillion of German output levitated? Alastair CROOKE



Europe’s business model basically is high end (i.e. costly) production, leveraged on the input of cheap energy from Russia. 

As Credit Suisse guru, Zoltan Poszar, has adduced: No less than $2 trillion of German manufacturing added-value is contingent on a mere $20 billion of gas from Russia – that is 100-times leverage. 

It is a hugely inverted pyramid resting on a relatively tiny apex of fossil fuel. 

Does anyone really believe that low energy-intensive windmills will keep that $2 trillion of German output levitated?

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"Who Is On The Other Side Of Those $1.5 Trillion In Energy Derivative Margin Calls Which Europe Is Bailing Out" @zerohedge
Minerals, Oil & Energy

"Who Is On The Other Side Of Those $1.5 Trillion In Energy Derivative Margin Calls Which Europe Is Bailing Out" @zerohedge 


So are those around reported requests for $1.5 trillion to cover margin calls in the derivatives market Europe is being asked to stump up for energy firms – so far. Who is on the other side of those trades? 

Are central banks (and taxpayers) on the hook for it given this crisis is structural, not cyclical? 

How large are the liabilities in the worst case? Is this the most efficient way to deal with this energy crisis? 

Will said energy derivatives market be shut down too, as some suggest? 

Playing DSGE&DSGE against that kind of real-world volatility really is escapism.

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24 August 2022 : in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia... War and Industrial Policy @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar
Minerals, Oil & Energy



: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia...

...that’s 100-times leverage more than Lehman’s.

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Debt risks have eased in emerging markets @ZiadMDaoud
Emerging Markets


Debt risks have eased in emerging markets @ZiadMDaoud



Why?

1. IMF intervention:
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Zambia
Egypt
Chile

2. Support from other nations:
India to Sri Lanka
GCC to Pakistan
GCC to Egypt

3. China in Africa:
Forgiving loans
Redirecting reserves

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In 1998, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told the House of Commons: “There is no way in which one can buck the market.”
Emerging Markets


In 1998, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told the House of Commons: “There is no way in which one can buck the market.”


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Imported Goods Drive Ghana Inflation to 21-Year High @markets
Africa


Imported Goods Drive Ghana Inflation to 21-Year High @markets 


Ghana’s inflation rate climbed to the highest level in 21 years in August as the price of imported goods continued to surge, fueled by a slide in the cedi.
Annual imported inflation quickened to 35.2% from 33.9% a month prior, outpacing domestic price growth for a fifth month, 

Government Statistician Samuel Kobina Annim told reporters Wednesday in the capital, Accra. 

The headline number rose for a 15th straight month to 33.9% from 31.7% in July. That’s the fastest pace since August 2001 and the 12th consecutive month the inflation rate has surpassed the top of the central bank’s target band of 6% to 10%. 

The median estimate of five economists in a Bloomberg survey was 35.1%.

The cedi has weakened more than 39% against the dollar this year and is the second-worst-performing currency in the world, after the Sri Lankan rupee

The depreciation prompted the central bank to hold a surprise meeting last month, when it raised the key interest rate by 300 basis points to 22%, the biggest margin since at least 2002, bringing cumulative increases since November to 850 basis points.

The Bank of Ghana also announced measures to boost foreign-exchange reserves and support the cedi, adding to fiscal steps taken by the government including approaching the International Monetary Fund in July for a $3 billion economic-support program to regain investor confidence. 
The inflation data is unlikely to persuade the central bank to increase interest rates again when it announces its decision on Sept. 26, unless a stabilization in the currency since the August hike is reversed. 

Key to its stablization will be news on talks with the IMF that may materialize at the lender’s annual meeting in October, Simon Quijano-Evans, a London-based economist at Gemcorp Capital, said in an emailed comment.

Edem Kporku, an investment research analyst at Constant Capital Ghana Ltd. in Accra and Courage Martey, an economist at asset management firm IC Securities, expect inflation to peak in the final quarter.

Food-price growth quickened to 34.4% from 32.3% in July, and non-food inflation accelerated to 33.6% from 31.3%. Prices climbed 1.9% in the month.

The Ghanaian cedi traded relatively unchanged at 10.0686 per dollar at 10:11 a.m. in the capital, Accra. 

The yield on Ghana’s dollar bonds maturing in 2032 rose 49 basis points to 23.83%.

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9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa

9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes


we were all popping Quaaludes [Quaaludes ‘’to promote relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These proper- ties are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric effect’’].

Everyone knows how this story ends. When the music stops, everyone will dash for the Exit and the currency will collapse 

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Harare, the nation’s capital, is already experiencing power outages of as long as 10 hours a day because of lower output from its main electricity plants.
Africa


Harare, the nation’s capital, is already experiencing power outages of as long as 10 hours a day because of lower output from its main electricity plants. 


The country is also facing higher demand for energy, particularly from mining companies as they ramp up output, President Emmerson Mnangagwa said in July. 

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@SafaricomPLC share data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

@SafaricomPLC share data


Closing Price: 28.20
Total Shares Issued: 40065428000.00
Market Capitalization: 1,129,845,069,600
EPS: 1.74
PE: 16.207

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Kenya Power & Lighting Company Ltd. share data
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Kenya Power & Lighting Company Ltd. share data 

Closing Price: 1.92
Total Shares Issued:  1951467045.00
Market Capitalization: 3,746,816,726
EPS: 0.76
PE: 2.526

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2022
 
 
 
 
 
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