home | rich profile | rich freebies | rich tools | rich data | online shop | my account | register |
  rich wrap-ups | **richLIVE** | richPodcasts | richRadio | richTV  | richInterviews  | richCNBC  | 
Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 19th of September 2022
 








The Poems of Octavio Paz
Misc.


The Poems of Octavio Paz 

Game 

I’ll plunder seasons.
I’ll play with months and years.
Winter days with the red faces of summer.
And down the gray road,
in the silent parade
of hard, unmoving days,

I’ll kidnap Spring,
to have her in my house,
like a ballerina.

read more


The Root of Man Octavio Paz
Misc.


The Root of Man Octavio Paz 


My love, everything grows still
in the burning voice of your name.
My love, everything grows still. You, with no name,
in the naked night of words.

read more


Two Bodies Octavio Paz
Misc.

Two bodies face to face are at times two waves and night is the ocean. Two bodies face to face are at times two stones and night the desert. Two bodies face to face are at times roots in the night entangled.

read more


The Street Octavio Paz
Misc.


The Street Octavio Paz 



It’s a long and silent street.
I walk in the dark and trip and fall
and get up and step blindly
on the mute stones and dry leaves
and someone behind me is also walking:
if I stop, he stops;
if I run, he runs. I turn around: no one.
Everything is black, there is no exit,
and I turn and turn corners
that always lead to the street
where no one waits for me, no one follows,
where I follow a man who trips
and gets up and says when he sees me: no one.

read more



Interrupted Elegy Octavio Paz
Misc.


Interrupted Elegy Octavio Paz 



Today I remember the dead in my house.

and no one knew into what silence he had gone.
After dinner, each night,
the colorless pause that leads to emptiness
or the endless sentence half-hanging
from the spider’s thread of silence
opens a corridor for him to return

Today I remember the dead in my house.
The scattered thoughts, the scattered
act, the names strewn
(lacunae, empty zones, holes
where stubborn memory rummages),

The world is a circular desert,
heaven is closed and hell empty.

read more


We call it love or death, freedom or fate, but is it not catastrophe, is it not the hecatomb? Octavio Paz
Misc.


We call it love or death, freedom or fate, but is it not catastrophe, is it not the hecatomb? Octavio Paz 


Everything is a mirror!
Your image chases you.
Man is inhabited by silence and space.

Dream is explosive. Explode. Be a sun again.

read more


“Silence is full of sounds,” I tell myself, “and what you hear, you don’t really hear. You hear the silence.” Octavio Paz
Misc.


“Silence is full of sounds,” I tell myself, “and what you hear, you don’t really hear. You hear the silence.” Octavio Paz 


Around the corner, the Apparitions: the girl who turns into a pile of withered leaves if you touch her; the stranger who pulls off his mask and is faceless, staring at you fixedly; the ballerina who spins on the point of a scream; the who’s there?, the who are you?, the where am I?

They told us: the straight path never leads to winter. And now my hands tremble, the words are caught in my throat. Give me a chair and a little sun.

read more


“Silence is full of sounds,” I tell myself, “and what you hear, you do not really hear. You hear the silence.” Octavio Paz
Misc.


“Silence is full of sounds,” I tell myself, “and what you hear, you don’t really hear. You hear the silence.” Octavio Paz 


Around the corner, the Apparitions: the girl who turns into a pile of withered leaves if you touch her; the stranger who pulls off his mask and is faceless, staring at you fixedly; the ballerina who spins on the point of a scream; the who’s there?, the who are you?, the where am I?

They told us: the straight path never leads to winter. And now my hands tremble, the words are caught in my throat. Give me a chair and a little sun.

read more





There is certainly a Fin de siecle even apocalyptic mood afoot.
Misc.


There is certainly a Fin de siecle even apocalyptic mood afoot.



The conundrum for those who wish to bet on the End of the World is this, however. What would be the point? The World would have ended.

read more




May 29 Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity
Law & Politics


May 29 Vanity of Vanities! All is vanity


One of the best descriptions of the current zeitgeist was written in a blog [dated] OCTOBER 30, 2014 BY DOMINIC CUMMINGS The Hollow Men II [2]
Complexity makes prediction hard. Our world is based on extremely complex, nonlinear, interdependent networks (physical, mental, social). Properties emerge from feedback between vast numbers of interactions: for example, the war of ant colonies, the immune system’s defences, market prices, and abstract thoughts all emerge from the interaction of millions of individual agents. 

Interdependence, feedback, and nonlinearity mean that systems are fragile and vulnerable to nonlinear shocks: ‘big things come from small beginnings’ and problems cascade, 

‘they come not single spies / But in battalions’. Prediction is extremely hard even for small timescales. Effective action and (even loose) control are very hard and most endeavours fail.
In the same article Cummings continues

Blofeld: Kronsteen, you are sure this plan is foolproof?
Kronsteen: Yes it is, because I have anticipated every possible variation of counter-move.
Politics therefore suffers from a surfeit of narcissists.


The occupants of No10, like Tolstoy’s characters in War and Peace, are blown around by forces they do not comprehend as they gossip, intrigue, and babble to the media.
The MPs and spin doctors steer their priorities according to the rapidly shifting sands of the pundits who they are all spinning, while the pundits shift (to some extent unconsciously) according to the polls.
The outcome? Everybody rushes around in tailspins assembling circular firing squads while the real dynamics of opinion play out largely untouched by their conscious actions.
In terms of a method to ‘manage’ government, it is not far from tribal elders howling incantations around the camp fire after inspecting the entrails of slaughtered animals. 
Layer on top of this a highly managed media construct which is essentially a Claque where alternative voices are deplatformed and we have an environment which was accurately described thus by @FukuyamaFrancis
The democratization of authority spurred by the digital revolution has flattened cognitive hierarchies along with other hierarchies, and political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble.
At a time when what is required is agile multi disciplinary thinking we have ''weaponized babble''

read more


What Happens Next in the War in Ukraine? @19_forty_five @DanielLDavis1
Law & Politics


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took a significant risk by ordering two counteroffensives earlier this month, one in the Kherson Oblast and one in the Kharkiv Oblast. 

As discussed in Part I of this analysis (you can read here), conditions were trending against Zelensky and left him with little choice. 

The Kherson strike group has thus far failed to achieve its objectives. The force that made the attack in the Kharkiv direction caught Russia completely unprepared and provided a dramatic success.
Zelensky made a risky, but so far successful, move by exploiting Russia’s go-slow action in the Donbas by building combat power out of contact and preparing to hit Russia’s comparatively thin lines in Kharkiv and Kherson.

It is painfully difficult to get accurate battlefield information in this war that is chocked full of misinformation and outright disinformation, peddled by both sides and their many supporters. 

One source that has proven the most accurate has been Austrian Col. Markus Reisner. 

He has posted numerous official video assessments of the fighting almost from the start of the war, and his detailed descriptions of progress or failures of each side have stood the test of time as being accurate.
On Wednesday, he posted an analysis of Ukraine’s twin offensives of both Kherson and Kharkiv and confirmed that the Kherson operation was nearly a complete failure, 

as the Ukrainian troops suffered heavy casualties from Russian artillery, rockets, and air strikes, and as a result, did not appear to have accomplished any of their territorial gains, and the lines are remarkably nearly unchanged from before. 

In the Kharkiv direction, however, the Ukrainians were much more successful.

Kyiv concentrated the best of the Western equipment it has received, including T-72 tanks from the Czech Republic and Poland, self-propelled howitzers from Germany, Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) from Great Britain, and armored personnel carriers and M777 howitzers from the U.S.  

Ukraine concentrated the best of its equipment and most trained troops into two counterattack groups: Kherson and Kharkiv.

Austrian Army Col. Reisner pointed out that Ukrainian troops used battlefield deception masterfully, by racing ahead with initial penetration units, knowing that the Russian defenses were sparse, and planted Ukrainian flags on buildings in towns far to the rear of the starting lines. 

They then blasted these images out on social media, knowing the Russians would be watching, giving the impression that they had made major penetrations with large forces into the Russian rear. 

It appears at least some of Moscow’s troops believed the videos and hastened their withdrawal to the east.

The big questions right now: will Putin attempt a signature response and escalate the scale and scope of his attacks in Ukraine? 

Has he been covertly building armored combat power out of contact, as Zelensky did in the weeks prior to launching the Kharkiv attack, and will there be the sudden appearance of Russian tanks at an unexpected part of the Ukraine line? 

At this point no one knows, but based on his history, it seems more likely as not that Putin will not passively take the humiliation he suffered when Zelensky drove his troops out of Kharkiv region. Some sort of retaliatory strike or counterattack seems likely.
Lastly, there is the looming issue of increasing economic cost on Western populations as sanctions on Russian oil, gas, and agricultural products continues to have cascading consequences across the globe. 

Already there are grave dangers that there may not be enough gas in Europe to heat homes and power business. 

Additionally, there is real risk of recession, both in the U.S. and Europe. Whether and how much the West will continue providing Kyiv with combat platforms and financial support is unknown.
The bottom line: there is a great deal of uncertainty on the course of the war, and in the near term, neither side can claim to be winning. 

The longer the war goes on, however, the more likely that Russia comes out on top, if only because they have the most resources and personnel, which in the history of warfare frequently determines the victor.

read more




Ukraine Is the New Israel @Consortiumnews
Law & Politics



Ukraine Is the New Israel @Consortiumnews 



The conflict over Ukraine and Taiwan are not conflicts that will go away in a matter of months; this is not like the war over Belgrade, or the war in Afghanistan. 
The U.S.  is clearly committed to a very long-haul conflict, and a Cold War of sorts, with Russia and China that will require more allocation of funds and arms to those two regions of the world. 


read more




24 August 2022 : in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia... War and Industrial Policy @CreditSuisse Zoltan Pozsar
Law & Politics



: in Germany, $2 trillion of value added depends on $20 billion of gas from Russia...

...that’s 100-times leverage more than Lehman’s.

read more








As a senior Conservative put it: “Public attention will start to switch from Elizabeth to Liz. That’s the key moment for us.” @thetimes
Law & Politics


As a senior Conservative put it: “Public attention will start to switch from Elizabeth to Liz. That’s the key moment for us.” @thetimes 


The next week has the makings of being the pivotal moment of Truss’s premiership, despite it only being a few weeks in, with a string of announcements that will shape the next two years of British politics and lay down the gauntlet to Labour, who begin their party conference next weekend.
The government is set to announce a huge package to ease energy costs for business on Wednesday, a programme to tackle the backlog of care in the NHS on Thursday and then a tax-cutting mini-budget on Friday. 

“We’ve got to cram two weeks’ news into four days,” a Downing Street source said.
Expected before midday on Friday, Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement will be centred on Truss’s £30bn promise to reverse the national insurance rise, cancel the scheduled increase in corporation tax, and scrap green levies on energy bills.

One senior government figure said the fiscal event would be “much bigger than people expect”, which is saying something when it is already widely predicted to cost upwards of £150bn.

That has fuelled speculation that Truss and the chancellor could cut income tax and bring forward plans to scrap the rise in national insurance contributions, so people see the benefit in October, rather than next April.

The energy bills announcement will set details of the energy price guarantee, which will freeze average household energy bills at £2,500 a year. 

A similar scheme for businesses will effectively cap the amount suppliers can charge businesses, with the difference funded by government subsidy. It will require primary legislation.

Plans for new low-tax “investment zones” are also ready to turbo-charge growth in areas ripe for redevelopment, putting “rocket boosters” under Rishi Sunak’s plan for freeports, which both Kwarteng and Truss felt was not radical enough.
Truss’s team think inflation will peak at 11 per cent in October. She and Kwarteng believe strongly that their plan will boost growth in the medium term. 

“This is about growing the size of the pie so we can fund tax cuts and public spending,” a source said. “It will require a complete recalibration of the political class.”
But in the Treasury and parts of No 10, there is concern that the weakness of the pound could undermine the prime minister’s gung-ho charge for growth, paid for with billions in new borrowing. 

One of Truss’s most senior aides admitted to a friend last week that the collapse of the pound to $1.13 on Friday, the lowest level since 1985, is causing grave concern since it is a bellwether of market confidence in the government’s economic strategy and could send the cost of borrowing rising. 

“They’re getting in a panic about what is happening to the pound,” a senior Tory said.

Politically, Truss is going for broke. If she is right, she will be hailed as a new Thatcher. But if she’s wrong it is the country that will be broke, and along with it any chance the Conservatives have of retaining power in 2024.

read more





Currency Markets At A Glance
World Currencies

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ

Euro 0.99917
Dollar Index 109.875
Japan Yen 143.2375 
Swiss Franc 0.96631
Pound 1.1402 
Aussie 0.670800
India Rupee 79.63325
South Korea Won 1392.475 
Brazil Real 5.2522 
Egypt Pound 19.076316 
South Africa Rand 17.686885

read more



May 2 Currency puzzles I AM EXPECTING THE DOLLAR INDEX TO RALLY TOWARDS 110.00 BECAUSE WE HAVE UNDERGONE A REGIME CHANGE
World Currencies


May 2 Currency puzzles I AM EXPECTING THE DOLLAR INDEX TO RALLY TOWARDS 110.00 BECAUSE WE HAVE UNDERGONE A REGIME CHANGE

MORE IMPORTANTLY FROM A GEOECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE THERE IS A STRONG CASE FOR THE US TO FLEX THE $ 

read more

















How to restructure sovereign debt @FTAlphaville @simonh_dk
Emerging Markets


How to restructure sovereign debt @FTAlphaville @simonh_dk


After almost two decades of relative tranquility, a violent rash of sovereign debt defaults looms on the horizon.
Mozambique, Lebanon, Ecuador, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Belize, Russia, Ukraine, and Zambia have all defaulted or restructured their debts in the past few years. 

Many other countries have already priced in a high risk of restructuring this year and next. It might therefore be a good time for a primer on how countries can restructure their debts.
The underlying assumption for almost all sovereign debt these days is that loans will not be repaid fully but rolled over. 

Nominal debt stocks tend to rise over time and bullet loans — the standard in sovereign borrowing — are replaced by new loans as they mature. 

A crisis can therefore happen quickly if it is impossible to borrow new money (for whatever reason).
Let’s skip the niceties and assume that a country is out of money but wants to remain a part of the global financial system (so no total repudiations of debt à la Russia 1918). 

The country needs to restructure its liabilities, and it might even already have defaulted by not paying a coupon (a contractual failure to pay). 

Even if it doesn’t default contractually, it will do so substantially by forcing a distressed debt exchange. 

The outcome will be classified as a sovereign debt default regardless of the type of default or severity of outcome.
A debt restructuring is fundamentally about allocating economic costs to someone. 

Countries want the burden of adjustment to fall on external creditors. Creditors want the burden to fall on taxpayers. 

The problem is one of resource allocation and identification of why the debt is unsustainable, and to what degree.

The first step in a debt workout is to figure out what the problem is: chronic low growth, falling commodity prices, no export sector, a bankrupt financial sector, the maturity structure of your debt, too large a debt stock, or hidden debt that wasn’t disclosed? 

Perhaps the debt was manageable at low interest rates, but now interest rates are high and servicing the loans is a budgetary problem? Citizens don’t like that, which makes it a political problem.
Sovereign defaults have occurred for all of the above reasons (some more often than others). 

Normally it’s a mix of factors, but understanding the root cause is a first step in a successful restructuring

If it is a liquidity problem caused by a pandemic, maybe the country just needs temporary help? 

Perhaps the problem is that the country has a debt stock that is several times its annual export earnings, in which case the problem is fundamental. The restructuring must address the problem.
The second step is to find out what type of debt the country has. Is the debt external? If yes, what kind of external debt — governed by foreign law, issued in foreign currency, or held by foreigners? 

What share of the debt is domestic? If the debt is governed by domestic law, it is easier to restructure legally, but if all the sovereign debt is owned by your financial system, maybe a restructuring will cause a domestic financial crisis that just makes everything worse.
Maybe most of the liabilities are not even directly on the government books but rather guaranteed state-owned enterprises that need to be part of a restructuring? Any initial analysis should answer these questions.
The restructuring process
The first issue is whether to go to the IMF or not. The IMF can come in and do a debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and lend credibility to the macroeconomic numbers. 

A DSA is a prerequisite for a restructuring at the Paris Club, but, more importantly, it sets out how much debt a country is likely to be able to pay “sustainably”.
The Fund does an analysis of the balance of payments and the debt stock among other things (see for example Zambia’s DSA from last week here), and the IMF can provide stop-gap financing if there is a credible way to make debt sustainable.
The downside is that IMF programs often come with strings attached, such as “reforms” that a country might not find very appealing. 

The reality is that any IMF programme is a political art, not science. 

The benefit is that the IMF has done many restructurings before, as have most of the lawyers and bankers involved on either side. 

A sovereign debt restructuring has no set process — but the players and the tools involved are usually the same.
The tools used to restructure debt are always the same, however. It involves an exchange of old claims for news claims, where the new claims have different characteristics: lower principal value, lower coupons, or longer maturity. 

It’s usually a mix, but the composition depends on what the problem is — and what you can get creditors to agree to.
If the debt stock is manageable, but all the debt is due in the next two months, maybe a “reprofiling” of the maturities is all that is needed. 

If the debt stock is too high, maybe principal haircuts are required, or maybe a lowering of the coupon until after any reforms are enacted and growth hopefully picks up. 

Once this analysis is done — usually behind closed doors together with the advisers and the IMF — the doors are opened and some sort of negotiation starts.
The DSA probably suggest what debt to restructure and what debt to exclude (and what debt to pay!) 

Generally, you’ll want to exclude some types of claims needed to keep the economy going, such as trade credits (to maintain and facility international trade) and Treasury bills (for short-term financing). 

But it depends on the problem and the debt stock. Trade credits and T-bills are usually excluded from restructurings, but not always — if 80 per cent of a country’s debt is T-bills then you can’t really exclude them.
The process from here depends on what type of debt the country has and on its creditors. It’s a good idea to start where you can get the best deal and have the most friends. 

Negotiations with bilateral creditors can happen between politicians or at a bureaucratic levels. 

Normally it’s done at the French finance ministry (the Paris Club), where most developed countries are members (but importantly not China).
There are generally two ways to go about dealing with commercial creditors: either a creditor consultation via an adviser, which will report back to the country/IMF, or a negotiation with creditor committees made up (usually) of the biggest lenders. 

Committees can verify a deal and might make others creditors comfortable that it’s the best deal on the table (after all, no creditor wants to give debt relief only to see someone else repaid in full).
The players
First the borrower. A sovereign county is a unique debtor. It is very difficult to force a country to do anything. 

There’s no sovereign bankruptcy code, no way to work out defaulted debt, and seizing state assets is very difficult. Do you want to try to seize Russian assets?
What a state has is its reputation and a wish to be part of global society. Countries are supposed to pay their debts under the doctrine of state succession (one of the international laws that are generally adhered to), but states are political entities. 

The debtor responds to domestic political incentives. A judge in New York might tell a country to do one thing but getting a country to respond is a different thing. Countries are often not in a rush.
Then there are the creditors. Creditors are important because they lend money, but on the other hand they don’t vote. 

Because most sovereign debt restructurings start out with an IMF DSA, the creditors are already pitted against each other if one or more classes of debt are excluded from a potential restructuring. So it’s a zero-sum game.

 Oftentimes a creditor’s main opponent is not so much the debtor but rather other creditors.
The senior creditors are normally multilateral institutions (IMF, the World Bank, some development banks) which often have “preferred creditor status”. The IMF is paid before everyone else. 

Sometimes preferred creditor status is also given to some wannabe-multilaterals (EIB, ECB, KDB, etc), but if too many get it that’s not great for junior creditors.

Creditors can be bilateral lenders (other countries, which negotiate at the Paris Club or individually), banks or bondholders (which usually form committees), trade creditors (often on their own but with political backing), households, or state entities. 

Each will argue their case. Some creditors can be more of a pain than others, as some are litigious or prone not to accept a deal.
Each creditor tries to talk their way up the capital structure. If you cannot talk your way up the capital structure, you want to make sure that everyone else shares in the pain.
If you’re a local bondholder, you say the financial system will go belly-up if you are restructured. 

If you’re an international bondholder, you mutter that the country will never be able to borrow in global markets again if you’re restructured. 

In extremis you say that you will go bankrupt if there is a restructuring and lobby your own government to help you negotiate — as banks in Europe did with Greek sovereign debt. 

You argue it’s cheaper to extend credit to Greece so they can roll over their debt rather than having to recapitalise some French or German bank.
The legal aspects
A legal analysis is needed to figure out the tactical approach. International law is difficult to enforce, but legal analysis still plays a very important role in today’s sovereign debt world — mainly because most debt contracts are governed by New York or English law.
The first step is to figure out how much of your debt is domestic law, which is easier to deal with, and how much is foreign law. 

Then you figure out how many of your bonds have old pari passu clauses, what type of collective action clauses govern the bonds, if some loans have weird clauses, and if the overall debt stock invites litigation. 

Some countries, like Ukraine, have relatively recently-issued debt that is easier to aggregate and thus restructure, while others, such as Zambia, have older contracts which might provide creditors or debtors some legal upper hand.
As a creditor, you try to figure out if your bond can be aggregated. Should you accelerate if there is a default? Get a judgment? 

Can you hold out for a better deal while other creditors restructure? 

Maybe you have an old, non-performing loan. If you have written it down already, it’s surely better to be able to collect on a smaller loan. 

Of course, if you want to sue, it’s important to get your strategy right, but also to remember that lawyers are expensive.
We’ll see a lot of variations of sovereign debt restructurings in the coming years. 

Some restructurings will be smooth, others . . . not so much. Consider this a bit of free advice for debtors and creditors alike.

read more




Ruling MPLAs 48.2% based on 94% of results sheets from 13200 polling stations Paula Cristina Roque
Africa


There were an estimated 2.7 million dead voters on the electoral register, giving the MPLA a buffer to play with numbers and justify different results in specific provinces. 

Meanwhile, the electoral commission made two key changes that contravened electoral law just a week before the election. 

The first was to remove the total number of voters from result sheets, making it easier to alter the numbers. 

The second was to restrict access to the national tally centre to just five electoral commissioners and a “technical group”, thus denying admission to other commissioners along with the press and civil society.
Angola’s constitutional court – another purportedly neutral institution heavily influenced by the MPLA – took just two weeks to consider the case before dismissing UNITA’s claims. 

In that time, the judges did not ask for a verification of the results nor for the electoral commission to show its result sheets or explain how it tallied the result. 

A conclave of ten justices failed to respect the most fundamental role which is the respect for public probity. They violated their own constitution.
Understood this way, the MPLA’s stealing of the 2022 election only secures it more power in the immediate term. 

The ruling party, in power since 1975, is increasingly unpopular and, by subverting the popular will so brazenly, seen as increasingly illegitimate. 

This would be dangerous for a regime at any time, but at a moment of worsening economic conditions and growing food insecurity, the MPLA could find it is sowing the seeds of a revolution against itself.

read more



A military mobilisation is under way in Eritrea in which reservists up to the age of 55 have been recalled to replenish the army, reports say.
Africa


A military mobilisation is under way in Eritrea in which reservists up to the age of 55 have been recalled to replenish the army, reports say.



On Thursday, many in the capital, Asmara, were given notices and taken within hours to front lines along the country's shared border with Ethiopia's Tigray region, sources told BBC Tigrinya.

read more


Debt Bailouts, Commodities Fuel Wagers on Africa’s Frontier Debt @markets
Africa


Africa’s frontier debt is beginning to catch the eye of investors amid a wave of rescue-package pledges from global financial institutions and China. 

The still relatively high price of raw materials is adding to the appeal of the region.

Money managers including BlackRock Inc., Neuberger Berman Group and UBS Group AG have made choice bets on eurobonds on the continent, Bloomberg holdings data show, with general sentiment favoring Angola and Ghana.
That’s a change from two months ago, when traders couldn’t exit Africa fast enough. 

Yields soared to record highs -- exceeding levels reached during the Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008 -- as investors fretted that poorer nations would default amid surging food and energy costs.
“The past 12 months have been particularly tough for frontier markets,” Regis Chatellier, director of EM Strategy at Oxford Economics, said in a note to clients. 

“But beyond the negative headlines, we see scope for optimism.”

Since July, there has been a turnaround. The International Monetary Fund has been working toward agreements on bailouts with vulnerable nations including Zambia, Ghana and Egypt. 

China, Africa’s largest bilateral creditor, also announced waivers on loans of 17 African countries. 

Yields have subsequently dropped, but remain way above their 10-year averages.

Bailouts, valuations and commodities are all reasons to be optimistic on the asset class, said Chatellier.

Raw-material prices have risen amid the lingering conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia – both countries being major exporters of commodities. 

Thermal coal prices, for example, reached record levels due to logistical supply snags and robust demand in Europe and Asia.
“Admittedly, commodities have repriced to the downside in the last few weeks, but we expect them to stay elevated by historical standards,” and “terms of trade and external balances should remain well supported,” Chatellier said. 
Favored Plays
Between the second quarter and now, BlackRock almost doubled its holdings of Angola’s eurobonds maturing in 2028. UBS also added to its ownership.
Jens Nystedt, a senior portfolio manager at Emso Asset Management in New York, said he favors Angolan debt along with that of Nigeria, Zambia and Mozambique. 

Oxford Economics upgraded its view on Angola to heavy overweight.
Angola is supported by oil prices that have enabled it to almost halve its debt ratios in just two years. 

The currency has benefited, with the kwanza the second-best performer against the dollar in the world this year. 

That’s fed into slowing inflation at a time when most nations are struggling to keep price growth under control.
A successful election last month means country-specific risk is also out of the way.
“The country has confirmed the reformist agenda can continue politically and has oil supply as its main asset that will continue to support it,” said Rob Drijkoningen, a Netherlands-based portfolio and managing director at Neuberger Berman Europe Ltd. 

“We continue to like it, subject to valuations of course.”

For Maciej Woznica, the Stockholm-based fixed-income portfolio manager at Coeli Frontier Markets AB, Ghana is attractive.

“Pricing in particular among the special situations like Sri Lanka and Ghana is below our expected recovery rates,” he said. “Not every day do you get a chance to buy below recovery values in credit!”
The country’s dollar debt has returned 8.4% in September, according to a Bloomberg Barclays index. That compares with an average 0.9% loss for the 74-member gauge.

read more









9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa

9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes


we were all popping Quaaludes [Quaaludes ‘’to promote relaxation, sleepiness and sometimes a feeling of euphoria. It causes a drop in blood pressure and slows the pulse rate. These proper- ties are the reason why it was initially thought to be a useful sedative and anxiolytic It became a recreational drug due to its euphoric effect’’].

Everyone knows how this story ends. When the music stops, everyone will dash for the Exit and the currency will collapse 

read more







We know what happens in the places we take them to, and what is in the packages we deliver for them. There are no secrets from your boda guy @thecontinent_
Africa


We know what happens in the places we take them to, and what is in the packages we deliver for them. There are no secrets from your boda guy @thecontinent_



We know our passengers, many revered, include thieves, adulterers, robbers, conmen, murderers, you name it.
You say, “Boda-bodas are thieves.” And we wonder: “Who isn’t?”

read more




The handshake was a power sharing agreement between two leaders that happened at the altar of electoral injustice. This wasn't a grand plan for all Kenyans for a better future. @MarigaThoithi
Africa

The handshake was a power sharing agreement between two leaders that happened at the altar of electoral injustice. This wasn't a grand plan for all Kenyans for a better future. It was an agreement to ensure that they weren't left out in the political cold.

read more



Its doable.
Kenyan Economy

It’s doable.

I think we need 1. A full Audit. 2. A multi stakeholder creditor conversation (China needs to extend maturities and reduce debt service because near term pressure is being emitted from these SGR related loans) 3. Craft a sustainable Plan.
It’s doable.

read more










 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
Login / Register
 

 
 
Forgot your password? Register Now
 
 
September 2022
 
 
 
 
 
COMMENTS

 
In order to post a comment we require you to be logged in after registering with us and create an online profile.