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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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We wil be hosting @KenyaBankers CEO @HabilOlaka, @KCBGroup CEO
@JoshuaOigara and NIC Bank MD John Gachora

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

“When a man is denied the right to live the life he believes in, he
has no choice but to become an outlaw.” ― Nelson Mandela

“I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph
over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who
conquers that fear.” ― Nelson Mandela

“I am fundamentally an optimist. Whether that comes from nature or
nurture, I cannot say. Part of being optimistic is keeping one's head
pointed toward the sun, one's feet moving forward. There were many
dark moments when my faith in humanity was sorely tested, but I would
not and could not give myself up to despair. That way lays defeat and
death.” ― Nelson Mandela

Foreign leaders visiting King Salman of Saudi Arabia have noticed that
there is a large flower display positioned just in front of where the
80-year-old monarch sits. On closer investigation, the visitors
realised that the purpose of the flowers is to conceal a computer
which acts as a teleprompter.

One visiting US delegation meeting with King Salman recently observed
a different method of convincing visitors – or at least television
viewers watching the encounter – that he can deal with the escalating
crises facing Saudi Arabia. The king did not look at the group but at
a giant television screen hanging from the ceiling of the room on
which was appearing prompts. Simon Henderson, the Saudi expert at the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who tells the story, writes
that off to one side in the room was an aide who “furiously hammered
talking points into a keyboard”.

Of course, King Salman is not the only world leader past or present
whose inability to cope has been artfully concealed by aides and
courtiers. But eyewitness accounts of his incapacity does put in
perspective the claim by the White House that President Obama’s visit
to Saudi Arabia and two hour meeting with the king on 20 April was
“cordial” and cleared the air after a troubled period in Saudi-US
relations.

In reality, the missing 28 pages in the 9/11 report on possible high
level Saudi involvement may not be as categorical or as damaging to
the Kingdom as the fact of their continued non-publication. The
secrets that Saudi Arabia has most interest in hiding may be rather
different, and relate to allegations that between 1995 and 2001, two
senior Saudi princes spent hundreds of millions of state funds paying
off Osama bin Laden not to make attacks within Saudi Arabia, but
leaving him free to do whatever he wanted in the rest of the world.

Ben Rhodes, Obama’s national security adviser, reported that King
Salman and Obama were engaged in a conversation lasting for more than
two hours. It has been a “very open and honest discussion”, according
to Rhodes. Rhodes literally: “The American president said that he
expects even more democratic reforms and an improvement of Human
Rights in the Gulf states.”

From the dinner dais, he’s made reference to drunk-texting and “The
Hunger Games.” He’s used the phrase “piss off” and flirted with even
bluer material. (Does he have a bucket list for his final year?
“Well,” he quipped at the 2015 dinner, “I have something that rhymes
with bucket list.”) Outside the dinner, he’s mocked the New York Times
food section on Twitter (“respect the nyt, but not buying peas in
guac”) and sparred with Zach Galifianakis on his culty “Between Two
Ferns” faux-talk show.

He might not be the first truly post-racial president after all — but
Obama is arguably the first postmodern humorist to hold the office.

Euro 1.1297
Dollar Index 94.49
Japan Yen 111.13
Swiss Franc 0.9738
Pound 1.4570
Aussie 0.7626
India Rupee 66.545
South Korea Won 1146.96
Brazil Real 3.5238
Egypt Pound 8.8815
South Africa Rand 14.4196

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1297 [1.1450 is key resistance]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Australia Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 0.7626 [Big Retreat]
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_AUDUSD&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d3

This is what you see when you get a flight path down the Hudson
River. Photographer: Matt Tomlin/Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-26/hey-stranger-do-you-want-to-borrow-my-private-jet

The Citation X in flight. Source: XOJET
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-26/hey-stranger-do-you-want-to-borrow-my-private-jet

Gold 6 month INO 1243.50
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 44.48
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYMEX_CL.M16.E

What’s important to point out is that the entire plot was set into
motion as a result of valuable intelligence that the NSA had gained
about Brazil’s top company and later weaponized into a regime change
catalyst.

Frontier Markets

Whatever happened to “Africa Rising”? Not so long ago, when investors,
shell-shocked from the 2008 financial crisis, were hunting for the
next big growth story, the idea of a resurgent Africa took hold. After
decades in which the perception of Sub-Saharan Africa had been that of
a continent of poverty, disease, civil war and kleptocracy, from about
2009 a new, more hopeful, narrative began to gain traction.

In this version, instead of being the “hopeless continent” — the title
of a notorious Economist magazine cover story in 2000 — Africa became
the next great investment frontier. Most of its multilateral debt had
been forgiven, growth rates had improved since the turn of the century
and, for the first time, governments were tapping capital markets at
low rates.

The rosy view was partly driven by demographics. Thanks to a high
birth rate — in many countries 5 or 6 per woman — the population of
Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to double to 2bn by 2050, according to
Hans Rosling of the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm. By contrast,
Europe and the Americas have stopped growing and Asia’s population is
levelling out. African cities were thus said to be brimming with young
aspirants ready to buy branded beer (rather than cheap moonshine),
toothpaste, mobile phones, motorbikes and, perhaps before too long,
cars and houses.

China’s voracious appetite for African oil, copper, iron ore, bauxite
and sundry other commodities pushed up the earning power of countries
from Angola to Zambia. Similarly, its no-strings approach to
investment and construction had pushed down the price of roads, ports
and power stations plus the odd presidential palace.

Africa, according to this more hopeful narrative, was less convulsed
by violence and run by more sensible leaders who held regular
elections and implemented rational economic policies. All of this
opened up the possibility that it could leapfrog a stage of
development by jumping straight from a pre-industrial state to a shiny
new digital world.

“The idea gradually built that Africa was about to become the new
Asia,” says Richard Dowden, executive director of the Royal African
Society in London, and author of The Economist’s “hopeless continent”
article. It was, he says, “absolutely ridiculous”.

Mood swing

That exuberance has evaporated. Nigeria and South Africa, which
together make up more than half of sub-Saharan Africa’s gross domestic
product, are in deep trouble. Nigeria’s petroleum-dependent economy
will be lucky to notch up GDP growth of 3 per cent this year, barely
enough to keep up with population expansion. The naira is under
pressure, foreign exchange is rationed, the budget is strained and a
balance of payments crisis is looming.

South Africa is in even worse shape, convulsed politically, battered
by deep job losses in its struggling mines and facing the real
possibility of a downgrade of its sovereign debt to junk.

Several other African states, especially commodity producers, are
struggling. Angola, which had been pumping out oil and purring along
at double-digit growth rates, has turned to the International Monetary
Fund. Mozambique is in dire straits after squandering much of the
proceeds of international borrowing. The grotesque use by politicians
of windfall profits around the continent is a reminder that corruption
is alive and well.

With a few notable exceptions, such as Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia,
Rwanda and Ivory Coast, resurgent after years of civil war, the
picture is similar. In country after country, growth is slowing,
external positions weakening and fiscal deficits widening. In its
semi-annual report, the World Bank forecast growth in Sub-Saharan
Africa of just 3.3 per cent this year, less than half the average of
6.8 per cent recorded between 2003 and 2008. Because of their growing
populations, most African states need nearly 3 per cent growth just to
stand still in per capita terms.

“You’ve gone from huge over-exuberance to uber-pessimism without
anything much in between,” says David Cowan, Africa Economist at
Citibank. That begs the most important question about Africa today. Is
there a sensible view between hope and despair?

In seeking answers, it is helpful to scrutinise the original causes of
optimism. One commonly cited reason for hope was that, after the
turbulent decades that followed independence, many states were at last
becoming better governed. Certainly, with the cold war over, there are
fewer full-blown civil wars in the likes of Angola, Mozambique and the
Democratic Republic of Congo. It has been several years since Africa
has seen anything like the genocide that tore Rwanda apart in 1994.
Still, lower-level conflict remains in South Sudan and Somalia, and
Africa faces a new threat in the form of Islamist terrorism.

On the question of governance, the picture is mixed. Ellen Johnson
Sirleaf, president of Liberia, is part of a supposed new wave of
leaders. “There are many others like me that are going to serve their
time and leave,” she says, referring to expectations that she will
stand down after two terms in 2018. “It’s part of changing Africa.”

Yet the idea of African leaders turning over a new leaf looks less
than convincing. The continent is still full of leaders who have long
clung on to power, including Robert Mugabe, who has run Zimbabwe for
36 years, Cameroon’s President Paul Biya (34 years and counting) and
Yoweri Museveni in Uganda (30 years).

Nor is there much evidence that democratic governments produce better
economic results. Paul Kagame, president of Rwanda, one of Africa’s
best-performing economies, clearly believes that development is more
important than democracy. Already in power for two decades, he has
just had the constitution altered to allow him to hold on to power
until 2034. Ethiopia, a Soviet-style dictatorship, is one of Africa’s
economic success stories.

Middle-class myth

The conviction that there is a growing African middle class, which has
done most to drive business interest in the continent, is equally
fragile. Vijay Mahajan helped consolidate Afro-optimism with his 2009
book Africa Rising: How 900m African Consumers Offer More Than You
Think. But Mr Mahajan, a US-based marketing professor, built his
thesis on less-than-robust advertising classifications of spending
power.

Many of his “middle class” were scraping by on a few dollars a day in
insecure jobs. Mr Mahajan sticks to his optimistic account but admits
that the book’s iconic title was a concoction of his publisher,
Pearson, former owner of the Financial Times.

It is true, as Mr Mahajan argues, that official data underestimate
African wealth, much of it hidden in the informal, untaxed economy.
Some multinationals have done well by catering to a new strata of
consumers. Anheuser-Busch InBev is paying $71bn for SABMiller largely
on the basis of its lucrative African brewing operations. Even in the
midst of Nigeria’s current woes, Coca-Cola paid $240m for a 40 per
cent stake in CHI, a juice maker.

Yet Africa’s middle class is fragile. Many well-paid jobs are in the
bloated public sector, funded by governments that may no longer be
able to afford such expense.

In recent years, consumer goods companies have been forced to chase
their customers downmarket, offering them smaller packet sizes (the
two-cigarette pack has hit the streets of Harare) or economy brands to
keep cash-strapped customers loyal.

Perhaps the biggest flaw in the middle class story is that, with a few
exceptions, Africa hardly makes anything. For too many countries, the
economic model continues to be to dig stuff out of the ground and sell
it to foreign companies.

Moeletsi Mbeki is an academic and younger brother of Thabo Mbeki, the
former South African president and a strong proponent of the Africa
Rising thesis. Moeletsi argues, conversely, that few countries have a
strategy to match Asian economies, such as Taiwan and South Korea,
which built prosperity on manufacturing and exports. “Yes, African
economies are getting more sophisticated,” he says. “But Africa is
still not yet in the manufacturing age.”

Productive exceptions

An exception is Ethiopia, which has turned a command economy-style
commitment to production into fast growth, though perhaps not quite as
fast as official data suggest. It has attracted textile manufacturers
from Turkey and shoemakers from China and turned Addis Ababa into a
bustling hub. With 90m people, Ethiopia has scale. That cannot be said
for a lot of other nations. Rwanda, in some ways a bright spot, has a
GDP of just $8bn, smaller than the London borough of Ealing.

The one country with true scale is Nigeria, with 180m people. Kingsley
Chiedu Moghalu, a former deputy governor at its central bank, argues
that rock-bottom oil prices are just the spur his country needs
finally to diversify and become a manufacturing force. Yet Nigeria is
not even at the starting line. The country, home to 2.5 per cent of
the world’s population, has just 0.1 per cent of its installed
electricity capacity. It has expensive labour, an overvalued currency
and a business class skilled at making money through arbitrage and
rent-seeking. Muhammadu Buhari, its president, says he is against
devaluing the naira because Nigeria has nothing other than oil to
export.

It is not all bleak. Some African countries have built dynamic
economies without relying on commodities. Kenya has been a pioneer in
its use of technology. Its M-Pesa mobile money system, now a decade
old, has produced an increasingly cashless economy, drawing everyone
from city-dwellers to Maasai pastoralists into its network and vastly
improving business efficiency.

The emergence of China, even one less hungry than it was for
commodities, has been a game-changer, most obviously through the
improvement of Africa’s infrastructure. The continent’s paved road
network has grown by 7,500km a year for the past decade, according to
the African Development Bank. Go almost anywhere in Africa, and
Chinese companies are building roads, ports and office blocks.

In the end, though, success stories are too rare and progress — both
economic and political — too fragile, to be confident that Africa has
changed decisively.

“Africa has always been valued for its commodities, whether it’s gold
or diamonds or slaves,” says historian Martin Meredith. “‘Africa
Rising’ was based on the Chinese being prepared to trade heavily to
get their hands on those raw materials.”

That phase is over. Unless governments can build sustainable growth
models less dependent on commodities and based more on adding value
domestically, the ‘Africa Rising’ story will be just that: a story.

IMF called in as slowdown bites
Few African countries have seen their fortunes rise and fall as
spectacularly as Angola in the wake of the drop in commodity prices.
Following the 2002 ending of a brutal civil war, Africa’s
second-largest oil producer embarked on a massive spending spree as it
sought to rebuild a devastated nation and ratchet up crude production.
Luanda spent about $15bn a year building roads, sewerage systems and
other infrastructure, it attracted increasing levels of foreign
investment, particularly from China, Portugal and South Africa, and
recorded some of the fastest growth in the world.
Its economic success was blighted by accusations that the autocratic
regime of President José Eduardo dos Santos was using the country’s
hydrocarbons wealth to enrich a politically connected elite at the
expense of the impoverished masses. Throughout the oil boom, little
was done to diversify the economy, meaning that when crude prices
collapsed the government was forced to dramatically slash its budgets.
When flush with petrodollars, state spending was the main driver of
growth. But as that source of finance — which last year accounted for
95 per cent of export earnings and 52 per cent of revenue — began to
dry up, projects were halted, jobs axed and business faced a foreign
currency shortage.
This month, Angola, which enjoyed double-digit growth during the boom,
turned to the International Monetary Fund for a potential bailout,
with a request for a three-year programme.
Eurasia Group said at the time that turning to the IMF shows both
Angola’s “desperation in the face of the oil shock and a willingness
to undertake tough reforms”. But the research group warned that the
country’s economic problems “do not lend themselves to quick fixes”.
Andrew England

“The consortium has committed long-term strategic investors. The
funding is in place. There is support for this potential transaction,”
Diamond told investors in the London-listed African based bank, Atlas
Mara, which he formed after being forced out of Barclays in the wake
of the Libor-rigging crisis in 2012.

Diamond’s involvement in the consortium, which includes the private
equity firm Carlyle, was revealed in a stock market announcement by
Atlas Mara after days of speculation about his interest in trying to
buy shares in Barclays’ African business.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stressed the need for timely and
credible elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo during a recent
meeting with President Joseph Kabila, the State Department said on
Monday amid concerns by opposition groups that Kabila may be seeking
to delay elections.

Kerry and Kabila held talks on the sidelines of the signing of a
global climate pact at the United Nations on Friday.

Congolese opposition groups have accused Kabila, who won disputed
elections in 2006 and 2011, of maneuvering to stand for a third term,
which is barred by the constitution. Kabila has not commented on his
future.

"The Secretary did emphasize that the U.S. stands ready to be a
partner to all of those who are committed to timely, credible
elections as called for by the DRC's constitution," State Department
spokesman John Kirby told a press briefing.

The Congolese government has suggested that logistical and budgetary
constraints could force it to postpone the poll, a move some of
Kabila's opponents say is a deliberate tactic by the president to
cling to power.

"The Secretary stressed that a peaceful transition in the DRC will
allow President Kabila to cement his legacy," Kirby added.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.67% 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

53,062.95 +77.64 +0.15%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.41
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +12.57% 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

7,886.82 +143.41 +1.85%

United States secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon during the Great
Depression advised his President (Herbert Hoover) to “liquidate
labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate...
it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living
and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more
moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick
up from less competent people.”

President Buhari ‏@NGRPresident "We're determined to get things
done properly." - President Buhari (02 April, 2016)


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -13.33% 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

24,824.84 +59.74 +0.24%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -7.79% 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Par Value:
Closing Price:           7.55
Total Shares Issued:          161866804.00
Market Capitalization:        1,222,094,370
EPS:             1.10
PE:               6.86

FY Revenue 2.283151865b vs. 1.764847673b +29.368%
FY Cost of sales [1.476312127b] vs. [1.197755467b] +23.257%
FY Gross profit 806.839738m vs. 567.092206m +42.277%
FY Selling and distribution costs [260.515766m] vs. [150.530394m] +73.065%
FY Administrative expenses [244.278863m] vs. [219.906436m] +11.083%
FY Operating profit/[loss] before gain on disposal of property, plant
and equipment 259.016014m vs. 139.371325m +85.846%
FY Gain on disposal of property, plant and equipment 2.086323m vs.
61.338464m -96.599%
FY Profit /[loss] before tax 198.387446m vs. 144.798997m +37.009%
FY Profit for the year 178.848086m vs. 153.126198m +16.798%
FY Exchange differences on translation of foreign operations
40.985924m vs. 7.027966m
EPS 1.10 vs. 0.95 +15.789%
Shareholders’ Funds 627.620367m vs. 407.786357m +53.909%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 13.684023m vs.
47.190220m -71.002%

From an accompanying hard copy release

Group Revenue for FY2015 +29%
FY EPS +37%
Manufacturing vertical 75% of Total Revenue
Heril Bangera ''we have made considerable progress on our strategic
plans, to generate an 86% increase in our normalised operating
profits. The Acquisitions made in foods, snacks and cosmetics capped
off FY 2015 really well for us''
acquisitions doubled the size of the Food Portfolio
Annual Net Sales for FY 2015 +29% to 2.28b

Conclusions

Strong Earnings. Good Headline growth and a very clearly defined strategy.

Our attention has been drawn to a hate anonymous document circulated
on social media on the shareholding structure of the bank.

We wish to put the following on record:
The listing of Co-operative Bank was over 8 years back in year 2008.
This was vide an Initial Public Offer (IPO) that was approved by all
the necessary Government regulatory agencies that included the
Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of Kenya, the Nairobi Securities
Exchange and the Capital Markets Authority.

All the pertinent disclosures were made as per the detailed
Information Memorandum to the general public dated 27th October 2008
that included the restructuring process undertaken to facilitate the
listing.  The Hon. Minister for Finance vide Gazette notice No.7089
dated 8th August 2008 effected the restructuring.

The Hate document was initially circulated way back in June 2008 by a
former Managing Director of the Bank Mr. Erastus Mureithi, who was
retired early by the bank in year 2001 following huge losses.

Mr. Mureithi is in court with the Bank on various matters that are in
the public domain; on one case Mr. Mureithi has been ordered by court
to refund the Bank various unpaid taxes to KRA now in excess of Ksh 25
Million.

Co-op Bank shareholding/directors interest in the Bank is in the
public domain as a listed Bank.  The Bank is 65% owned by Co-opholding
Co-operative Society Limited, a strategic vehicle on behalf of the
over 10 million member co-operative movement in Kenya.  The Bank with
countrywide ownership is indeed the face of Kenya.

The Bank has been listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange now for
almost 8 years and we are not aware of any concerns by the
shareholders on the structure as approved in year 2008.

Co-op Bank is undoubtedly one of Kenya’s success stories.  From a big
loss of over Ksh 2.3 Billion with the institution on the verge of
collapse in year 2001, the Bank is now the largest Co-operative Bank
in Africa, and one of the largest in the region with an asset base of
over Ksh 340 Billion, and a profit of over Ksh 15.38 Billion, over 145
outlets and over 5.9 million customers. The Bank is run by a
professional Board of Directors with regular shareholders meetings.

As above, the allegations contained in the undated, anonymous document
are totally untrue, malicious and unfounded. Co-op Bank has operated
at all times with utmost professionalism and ethical standards.

Any interested person can obtain more details if required from our
legal department on 3276654 or our regulators as a listed company.
Comments

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Posting comments after has been disabled.

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           19.20
Total Shares Issued:          4889316295.00
Market Capitalization:        93,874,872,864
EPS:             2.31
PE:                 8.312

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.01% 2016
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

145.69 -0.56 -0.38%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.69% 2016
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,012.72 -7.13 -0.18%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
https://rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Chase Bank re-opened its doors today and it is remarkable how quickly
The Central Bank and KCB moved. The Solution has been patently one in
the National Interest and its speaks to a coming of Age.
The Nairobi All Share tracked -0.57 points lower and closed at 145.12.
The NSE20 Index fell back 27.69 points.
Equity Turnover clocked 313.223m.

Safaricom closed unchanged at 16.95 and traded 8.11m shares. Safaricom
is +3.975% in 2016 and is girding itself for a Push into Fresh All
Time Highs ahead of or coincident with the Release of its FY Earnings
next month.

COOP Bank has been weighed down by a report on Social Media regarding
The listing of Co-operative Bank over 8 years back. COOP Bank
responded characterising the document as '' a hate anonymous
document'' COOP Bank had retreated -8.571% in April through this
morning and rebounded 0.52% today to close at 19.30 and was trading at
19.50 +1.56% at the Finish,
I&M rallied +2.8% to close at a 2016 closing High of 110.00 and traded
88,000 shares. CDC snaffled up a 10.68% stake and might well be adding
to that position through the market. I&M is +10.00% in 2016.
CFC bank firmed +3.31% to close at 93.50 and traded just 5,000 shares.
DTB was low-ticked -7.317% to close at 190.00 on wait for it just 100 shares.
StanChart retreated 5.911% to close at 191.00 and traded 28,900
shares. The Bonus was 1 for 10 shares held and this correction has
overshot big time.
Housing Finance followed on yesterdays 5% gain to close +2.38% at
21.50 making that a +7.5% 2 session Price Gain since releasing its Q1
2016 Earnings where a 12 per cent loan book expansion to Sh53.4
billion translated into a +46.816% gain in Q1 2016 Profit After Tax.

EABL closed unchanged at 285.00 and traded 146,400 shares.

Trans-Century slumped -6.06% to close at an all time Low 0f 4.65.
Trans-Century has slumped -43.63% in 2016 and its difficult to forsee
a situation that does not essentially wipe out the ordinary
shareholders.

Flame Tree Group reported FY 2015 Earnings before the Opening Bell
where FY Revenue rose +29% to clock 2.28b. The CEO Heril Bangera said
'we have made considerable progress on our strategic plans, to
generate an 86% increase in our normalised operating profits. The
Acquisitions made in foods, snacks and cosmetics capped off FY 2015
really well for us''
FTG has been on the acquisition Trail and is carving out a Niche in
two high growth markets, Beauty and Food.
FTG closed unchanged at 7.55 and is +7.85% in 2016.