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Macro Thoughts

The End of the Halcyon Moment

From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her
husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea
whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds
(kingfishers). When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves
threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them
calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. These
became known as the "halcyon days," when storms do not occur. Today,
the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for
being happy and/or successful.

A lot of risk calculations are based on Value at Risk (VAR).
Essentially, you overlay a volatility measure over the portfolio, and
you calculate how much money is on the line. Central banks have
suppressed volatility therefore in real terms; investors are now
holding bigger positions at these current artificially suppressed
levels. If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en
masse. Or to put it another way and to borrow the lyrics from the
Eagles Hotel California:

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “

Home Thoughts

The tiny Alesi skull is 13 million years old. Craig S. Feibel of
Rutgers University-New Brunswick says, "A nearby volcano buried the
forest where the baby ape lived, preserving the fossil and countless
trees,” adding, “it provided us with the critical volcanic minerals by
which we were able to date the fossil."

I learnt last week that nearly half of the atoms that make up our
bodies may have formed beyond the Milky Way and travelled to the solar
system on intergalactic winds driven by giant exploding stars.

“Science is very useful for finding our place in the universe,” said
Daniel Anglés-Alcázar, an astronomer at Northwestern University “In
some sense we are extragalactic visitors or immigrants in what we
think of as our galaxy.”

Rumi said “We come spinning out of nothingness, scattering stars like dust.”

YOU’VE got aliens inside you. It sounds crazy, and for nearly a
century science steadfastly refused to believe it. Mitochondria, tiny
bodies that swarm inside almost every one of our cells and supply them
with power, are actually descendants of a separate life form: a
free-living bacterium probably not unlike many of the little terrors
that surround us today.

Although the idea of this merger is now widely accepted, it continues
to be seen through biased eyes. The hapless mitochondrial ancestor was
enslaved, so the story goes, its once proud genome reduced to a few
genes and its job limited to the provision of energy. Autonomy? Long
gone. It’s as if we were trying to pretend this side of our family
tree never existed.

But these residents are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Far
from being passive power plants, it seems mitochondria influence some
of the most important aspects of human life – from memory and ageing
to combating stress and disease. They even have influence over the DNA
in your cell nuclei, and change and evolve during your lifetime,
giving you an unexpected source of adaptability to cope with a world
in flux. Given what we are now finding out about the extent of
mitochondrial activities, you might be forgiven for feeling a bit
possessed.

Found in almost every cell of every multi-celled life form on the
planet, mitochondria are lozenge-shaped organelles no more than 1
micrometre in diameter. We inherit ours from our mothers in the
cytoplasm of the egg from which we develop.

Political Reflections

The purest geopolitical proxy in the markets is Gold. As Ben Bernanke
once said People hold gold “As protection against what we call tail
risks: really, really bad outcomes.” Gold closed the week at a six
month high of $1,285.00 and has the potential to go ‘’nuclear’’

#NORTHKOREA VOWS TO MERCILESSLY WIPE OUT THE PROVOCATEURS. SAYS U.S.
WILL SUFFER A SHAMEFUL DEFEAT: KCNA

The U.S. took control of Guam in 1898, when Spanish authorities
surrendered to the U.S. Navy.

Did you know the South Korean President has a military war room and an
economic war room and they say he spends more time in the economic war
room.

The Tape is your Telescope’ and it is. And I follow all kinds of tapes
and one of the tapes is the South Korean Stock Market called the
KOSPI. About 5 working days before this blew, someone sold more than
$1b worth of South Korean equities seconds before the close. Who was
that? Not one commentator has connected those dots.

FAR away in distant lands lies the Hermit Kingdom. This land is ruled
by The House of Kim and its capital is Pyongyang. The first and
‘Eternal’ President was Kim Il-sung and his successor Kim Jong-il
whose designated successor is Kim Jung-un. They all have had tiny
little hands like the Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker.And this
country has nuclear weapons and on its border with its neighbour South
Korea sit 25,000 American soldiers. Last week the North shelled the
South and issued all kinds of threats. “The DPRK (North Korea) will
deal a merciless military counter-attack at any provocative act of
intruding into its territorial waters in the future.’’ President Obama
sent the USS George Washington to the Yellow Sea and now here we sit
watching developments and trying to model what is happening and what
might happen? In reality, we are actually navigating in uncharted
waters. The media keeps chanting like a mantra, China will rein North
Korea in. It is not in their Interests to have a mad dog like North
Korea as an ally. And whether its the BBC, The New York Times or Radio
France. I venture this is an embedded narrative fallacy and that most
Western commentators are apparently popping Qaaludes. Let me tell you
why. China is taking a much more forward position and particularly in
Asia, its near abroad. I believe North Korea is the perfect instrument
[the Attack Dog] for China to show those who choose to operate outside
their sphere of influence [and by extension, in the US’] that there
will be a very heavy price to pay.I venture that the Chinese are quite
happy to see those 25,000 US soldiers run right into the sea and we
need to grow up [as does the media] and see it for what it is. North
Korea and China see a weak and tottering President Obama and this
flashpoint represents the beginning of a roll back of US Power. And
you know the battlefield is not just the military one. Its a financial
one as well. Did you know the South Korean President has a military
war room and an economic war room and they say he spends more time in
the economic war room. Think about that for a moment. By this time,
you know I consider one of the finest books about trading and
economics one written by Edwin Lefevre called Reminiscences of a Stock
Market Operator and in that book he says ‘The Tape is your Telescope’
and it is. And I follow all kinds of tapes and one of the tapes is the
South Korean Stock Market called the KOSPI. About 5 working days
before this blew, someone sold more than $1b worth of South Korean
equities seconds before the close. Who was that? Not one commentator
has connected those dots. Just because China does not flex its ability
does not mean it cannot. If you have the power to do something and
have not that does not make you less powerful.

From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant
state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of
Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out
and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable
and noteworthy.

To bring Saudi head-choppers and Israeli occupiers into alliance is,
after all, something of an achievement.

What I want to look at is Aljazeera and how it is a preeminent example
of soft power in this 21st century of ours. Soft power is the ability
to obtain what one wants through co-option and attraction. It can be
contrasted with ‘hard power’, that is the use of coercion and payment.
Soft power can be wielded not just by states, but by all actors in
international politics, such as NGOs or international institutions.
The idea of attraction as a form of power dates back to ancient
Chinese philosophers such as Lao Tzu in the 7th century BC. “Water is
fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is
rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft, and
yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. This is another
paradox: what is soft is strong.” Lao
Tzu. This idea was further developed by Joseph Nye of Harvard
University in his 2004 book, Soft Power: The means to success in world
politics and I happen to believe that Emir of Qatar is Nye and Lao
Tzu’s very best student.

There are about 250,000 Qataris in a world of about seven billion
souls. That’s considerably less than 0.1 per cent. They tell me
Aljazeera is beamed into more than 200m households.

Euro 1.1757
Dollar Index 93.46
Japan Yen 109.19
Swiss Franc 0.9628
Pound 1.2979
Aussie 0.7855
India Rupee 64.205
South Korea Won 1143.40
Brazil Real 3.1752
Egypt Pound 17.7710
South Africa Rand 13.4469

U.S. crude #oil futures settle at $48.59/bbl. ⬇$0.97. -1.96%. @Lee_Saks

When Mamey Kamara attended the opening of Ivorian chocolatier Instant
Chocolat, she instantly fell in love. Born and raised in Abidjan,
Kamara grew up exposed to European chocolate brands Cote d’Or and
Milka. But through the Ivorian-made treats, she satisfied both her
sweet tooth and patriotism.

“To see young, ambitious Ivoirians makes me dream. There’s a certain
national pride in consuming chocolate from home. To me, it’s important
to encourage our local craftsmen, but I also enjoy the fresh blend of
familiar flavors like hibiscus and ginger,” says Kamara, a
communications manager at a small NGO in Abidjan.

Africa consumes fewer than 4% of chocolate sold globally, but the
region’s consumption patterns may soon change due to the rising middle
class.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

Police in Zambia freed an opposition leader on Thursday after holding
him in detention for a week on accusations of defaming President Edgar
Lungu, an offence that carries a maximum five-year prison term.

Police arrested United Progressive Party leader Saviour Chishimba last
Thursday and said he would be charged with defaming the president.
[L5N1KP87V]

"Inflation has been declining and we see that it will remain within
the medium term target range of 6-8 percent. We also noted that
economic growth has been sluggish," said Bank of Zambia governor Denny
Kalyalya.

South Africa could escape a further slide to junk status on Friday in
the same way the nation’s leader, Jacob Zuma, defeated a parliamentary
rebellion and clung onto power -- comfortably but not without some
sweating.

Moody’s Investors Service is scheduled to release a ratings review two
months after it cut the local- and foreign-currency assessments to one
level above junk, citing risks to growth and fiscal strength due to
the political outlook. That was after it put South Africa on review
for a downgrade following a cabinet reshuffle in which Zuma fired
Pravin Gordhan as finance minister, prompting S&P Global Ratings and
Fitch Ratings Ltd. to cut the nation to sub-investment grade.

While the no-confidence motion in Zuma was defeated by 198 voted to
177 on Aug. 8, more than two dozen members of his ruling African
National Congress opposed him. The ANC will elect new leaders in
December when Zuma is due to step down. The party’s new head will
probably succeed him as president of the country in 2019.

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.4469


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +41.78% 2017


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +34.84% 2017

Two billion US dollars is the amount authorized to the Finance
Minister to implement the strategy of issuing sovereign debt
securities in international markets, in the form of Eurobonds, aiming
to improve the composition of the external debt stock.

Gabrielle Lynch, a Kenya expert at Warwick University, raised
questions about the oppositions’ claims.

“The question is, if results are so different as it is being claimed,
why are those discrepancies not being raised at the constituency
level?” Ms. Lynch said.

International observer missions, including one led by former Secretary
of State John Kerry, called the poll largely free and fair on Thursday
and urged Mr. Odinga to follow due process to address his grievances.

“We listened very carefully to his concerns…and they deserve to be
taken seriously,” Mr. Kerry told a press conference. “I know what it’s
like to lose an election, I lost by one state the presidency of the
United States…but you have to get over it and move on.”

“The markets are seeing this accusation of massive hacking as a red
herring,” said Aly-Khan Satchu, who runs Nairobi-based Rich Management
@BloombergQuint

162.74 +2.20 +1.37%

3,903.29 +53.16 +1.38%

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