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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 03rd of August 2017

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Macro Thoughts

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Why the Great Migration Needs to Top Your Bucket List, in 15 Photos @luxury

Blue wildebeests, also known as white-bearded wildebeests, make up the
bulk of the great migration that covers 1,200 miles of the Serengeti
and Maasai Mara. The rumbling mass of 1.5 million hoofed beasts heads
north from the Serengeti’s dry, depleted grasses to the Maasai Mara’s
greener plains, with the first herds crossing the treacherous waters
of the Mara River from mid- to late July. By January the beasts have
made their way back to the southern Serengeti again where about half a
million calves are born through March, before dry grasses prompt their
departure in May again.

About 200,000 zebras add a touch of striped glamour to the muddy-gray
mass of wildebeests. They’re usually first to arrive in the Maasai
Mara reserve following the river crossing, and they stay put through
October, when the first herds begin their journey south again along
the eastern edge of the Serengeti in search of new grasses.
Zebras’ bold markings have long puzzled biologists, given the number
of predators on the prowl—theories include their stripes having a
cooling effect (scientists have found the hotter the location the more
stripes a zebra has), a way of repelling disease-causing insects, and
an optical illusion when mixed with grassland to confuse predators.

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23 APR 12 :: "Hunting Elephants in East Africa'. @TheStarKenya

One of my greatest pleasures is watching and tracking elephants. I
recall turning a corner in the Masai Mara and finding myself alone
except for a herd of over 100 elephants. I have watched a documentary
about the elephants of Kilimanjaro and I learnt that elephants mourn
their dead just like we do. They actually caress the bones of the
departed and apparently never forget.

“The only lies for which we are truly punished are those we tell
ourselves.” ― V.S. Naipaul, In a Free State

“After all, we make ourselves according to the ideas we have of our
possibilities.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

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Good Morning World from A Bend in the @MaraFairmont River

“Going home at night! It wasn't often that I was on the river at
night. I never liked it. I never felt in control. In the darkness of
river and forest you could be sure only of what you could see — and
even on a moonlight night you couldn't see much. When you made a noise
— dipped a paddle in the water — you heard yourself as though you were
another person. The river and the forest were like presences, and much
more powerful than you. You felt unprotected, an intruder ... You felt
the land taking you back to something that was familiar, something you
had known at some time but had forgotten or ignored, but which was
always there. You felt the land taking you back to what was there a
hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”
― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

“Anybody can be decisive during a panic; it takes a strong man to act
during a boom.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics

From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant
state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of
Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-outand
motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable and

Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries
are his information victims.

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China has officially opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa Quartz Africa
Law & Politics

“The Djibouti base has nothing to do with an arms race or military
expansion, and China has no intention of turning the logistics center
into a military foothold,” the state-run news agency Xinhua said

Djibouti is located near the Suez Canal, through which as much as 10%
of the world’s sea-borne oil trade passes through every year.(Djibouti
already houses several foreign security forces, including the United
States military at Camp Lemonnier, Britain, Japan, and France.) It’s
also part of China’s One Belt One Road” project, a massive network of
transport links that roughly follows the ancient Silk Road.

Satellite images obtained by Stratfor, the US-based geopolitical
intelligence platform, in April and July reveal a heavily fortified
base with three layers of defense, an underground space of 23,000
square meters, and at least eight hangars for aircraft. Curiously,
according to Stratfor, no dock had been constructed yet, despite the
base’s main mission to support Chinese naval operations.
“It is clear that Beijing is laying down the infrastructure to provide
long-term support to naval vessels and some aircraft on the Horn of
Africa, near one of the world’s chokepoints for trade,” Stratfor


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The @PMOIndia is ceding the Indian Ocean?
Law & Politics

Xi Jinping is playing an offensive geopolitical Game from the SCS to
the Horn of Africa

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There is no doubt the Venezuelan election was tampered with, the company that provided machines says BBG
Law & Politics

The company that has provided voting machines and software for
Venezuela’s elections for more than a decade said that turnout figures
for Sunday’s vote to elect delegates for a controversial
constitutional assembly were manipulated and overstated.

“Based on the robustness of our system, we know, without any doubt,
that the turnout of the recent election for a National Constituent
Assembly was manipulated,” Smartmatic chief executive officer Antonio
Mugica told reporters in London. “This would not have occurred if the
auditors of all political parties had been present at the different
stages of the election.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1841
Dollar Index 92.96
Japan Yen 110.61
Swiss Franc 0.9707
Pound 1.3217
Aussie 0.7927
India Rupee 63.674
South Korea Won 1127.75
Brazil Real 3.1136
Egypt Pound 17.8520
South Africa Rand 13.2439

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Trendy Coffee at $4 a Cup Revives African Industry Left Behind

Julien Ochala can’t live without his morning cup of Joe.

But not just any coffee will do. For the past five years, the
37-year-old physiology lecturer at King’s College London has visited
the same store every week to grab a pack of his beloved Kenyan brew.
And he’s not put off by the cost: at 37 pounds a kilogram ($22 a
pound), it’s more than double a similar supermarket product.

"I take Kenyan coffee every morning," said Ochala, who buys his beans
from Monmouth Coffee Company in Borough Market. "I love it because of
the relatively higher acidity level. It keeps me active in the

Customers willing to pay a premium for African brews, known for their
floral, fruity flavors, are driving purchases of coffee from the
continent where the drink is said to have originated. One legend has
it that Ethiopian goat herders discovered the plant more than a
thousand years ago. Today, a cup of Kenyan coffee at Monmouth costs
roughly $4, compared with about $3 for a standard Americano from
Starbucks Corp. in London.

The renewed interest may be a blessing for farmers in Africa, where
output is about three-quarters of what it was four decades ago.
Growers of robusta, the cheaper variety favored for instant drinks,
have found it hard to compete as major producer Vietnam boosted output
at much lower cost. Brazil also provided more competition for
medium-quality arabica beans.

“Ethiopian beans have been known in the West for a long time, but now
we are seeing more Rwandan, Kenyan and even beans coming from Burundi,
Uganda and Congo,” said Karl Weyrauch, the founder of Seattle-based
Coffee Rwanda, a supplier of Rwandan beans to the American market.
“African beans may also seem exotic to some coffee drinkers and that
piques their curiosity.”

But output isn’t what it once was. In 1975, four African nations were
among the world’s 10 biggest producers. Now, only Ethiopia and Uganda
make the list.

“African production is under threat,” said Keith Flury, head of coffee
research at Volcafe Ltd., one of the world’s top coffee traders. "In
countries like Kenya, Nairobi is urbanizing fast and expanding into
areas that were previously used for coffee. In other countries such as
Rwanda and Burundi, coffee is being replaced with subsistence crops as
population grows."

Younger Africans are shunning coffee farming for more profitable
careers, according to the International Coffee Organization. It pegs
the average age of an African coffee grower at 60. Political conflicts
have also made farming difficult. Nestle SA’s Nespresso brand last
year halted operations in South Sudan due to the civil war.

In Nairobi, farmers can make more money selling their land for
property development than working the coffee trees, said Martin
Maraka, program manager at the African Fine Coffees Association.
Population growth and urbanization show little signs of slowing - the
continent will account for more than half of the world’s population
growth by 2050, adding 1.3 billion people, according to the United

While demand is rising, Africa’s coffee exports have mostly been flat
since the early 2000s. In comparison, global shipments jumped about 37
percent in the period as world consumption grew by a similar amount.

Demand for African beans used in blends -- the regular products sold
in supermarkets that are a mix of supplies from anywhere in the world
-- has largely been steady, and the prospects for growth lie in
so-called single-origin coffees that only use beans from one specific

That potential for niche brews is attracting trading houses to African
markets, where margins are much wider than in Brazil or Vietnam.
Singapore’s Olam International Ltd., one of the largest food
merchants, last year paid $7.5 million for East African coffee
specialist Schluter S.A., which had been family-owned since the 19th
century. Neumann Kaffee Gruppe, Volcafe, Louis Dreyfus Co. and Ecom
Agroindustrial Corp. are present in Africa.

Higher demand from western consumers for some African products is
evident to Lars Pilengrim, who buys coffee for Swedish roaster Johan &

“The African taste profiles are very popular in and around
Scandinavia,” Pilengrim said. “We are seeing growing interests for
coffee from Africa and not only the classic origins such as Ethiopia
and Kenya. We are increasing our presence and buying in and from

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Moody's says "Ethiopia's economy has grown rapidly over the last decade and we expect GDP growth of around 8% over the next few years"

Moody's says ETHIOPIA faces number of credit challenges, including
vulnerability to political risk, weather cycles, price volatility for
coffee, gold Source text for Eikon:

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +8.98% 2017

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.2439


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +37.32% 2017


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +33.44% 2017


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Zimbabwe asks court to enforce seizure of Zimplats mining ground

Zimbabwe has filed a court application to enforce a previous notice to
seize more than half of platinum producer Zimplats' mining land, the
company said on Wednesday.

Zimplats, which is majority controlled by Impala Platinum in January
said President Robert Mugabe's government had made a fresh bid to
compulsorily acquire 27,948 hectares of its mining ground, which the
company opposed.

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Tanzania's New Natural Resources Legislation: What Will Change? @NRGInstitute

Minerals royalty. The Amendments Act increases the royalty on diamonds
and gemstones from 5 percent to 6 percent, and raises the royalty on
metallic minerals from 4 percent to 5 percent of gross value.14 Under
the Mining Act, the royalty base was previously de ned as the “market
value of minerals at the point of re ning or sale or ... at the point
of delivery within Tanzania.” The Amendments Act has now speci ed that
“market value” shall be based on a valuation procedure requiring the
presence of a mines resident officer and an officer from the Tanzania
Revenue Authority.15 Under the new procedure, the government may
reject the valuation of exported or raw minerals that are rated “low”
because of “deep negative volatility.” Where the government rejects a
valuation, it is entitled to purchase the minerals at the low price.16
The concept of “deep negative volatility” is undefined, and no
standards are provided for determining whether a price is “low.”
Regulations will be needed to establish clear parameters for rejecting
valuations on this basis.

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Kenya may be growing but 'You can't eat GDP' AFP
Kenyan Economy

"I think Kenya had to make those investments," said Aly-Khan Satchu, a
Kenyan analyst. "But now, they need to reap the benefits of those
investments, but they also need to space the next investments

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Kenya opposition leader says ruling party can win only by rigging vote
Kenyan Economy

 Kenya's ruling party cannot win next week's national elections
without rigging the result, opposition leader Raila Odinga said on
Wednesday, adopting a hard-line stance likely to stoke public fears of

"There is no other way that Jubilee can win elections other than
through rigging and they know it - that is why they are making all the
efforts," he told Reuters as he left an election rally in the town of
Suswa near the capital.

"I'm very confident that we are going to get a very, very decisive
victory," he said.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Against the US Dollar, the Kenyan Shilling weakened 1.35% year-to-date.
Against the Sterling Pound, the Kenyan Shilling weakened 9.33% year-to-date.
Against the Euro, the Kenyan Shilling weakened 14.69% year-to-date.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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August 2017

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