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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 17th of August 2017

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Macro Thoughts

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07-AUG-2017 :: The End Zone and the Mighty Dollar @TheStarKenya

I think the rebound will gather strength because just about everyone
has been lulled into a sense of security [in their sort positions] .
And that the dollar which was deep in its end-zone has just thrown a
hail-mary pass, which is set to make up a lot of ground.

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Shorting the Dollar Becomes a Very Crowded Trade

Being bearish the dollar is the second most crowded trade across
markets, according to respondents in Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Global Research’s August fund manager survey. The sentiment reflects
just how much expectations for the greenback have shifted this year.
From December to April, investors said being long the greenback was
the single most overcrowded trade. Now, hedge funds and other large
speculators are betting the dollar is poised for further declines,
amassing the biggest net-short position in more than four years, CFTC
data show.

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The dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies slipped to 93.39 from Wednesday's three-week high of 94.145.

"There's no change in market expectations that the Fed will announce
the start of balance sheet reduction in September. But markets think
there's risk to the scenario of a rate hike in December," said
Shunsuke Yamada, chief Japan FX strategist at Bank of America Merrill

Money market futures are pricing in about a 40 percent chance the Fed
will raise rates by December, compared to just under 50 percent before
the Fed's minutes.

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"History is the angle at which realities meet." - Don DeLillo, End Zone

Home Thoughts

“I had not yet learned to appreciate the slowly gliding drift of
identical things; chunks of time spun past me like meteorites in a
universe predicated on repetition.” ― Don DeLillo, End Zone

“The pattern match begins with a search for a substring of a given
string that has a specified structure in the string manipulation
language” ― Don DeLillo, End Zone

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Indian and Chinese troops clash in disputed Himalayan border region


Xi Jinping is a just waiting to land a more muscular punch.

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"Wait a minute, I'm not finished. I'm not finished, Fake News," President Donald Trump said at a press conference, on Tuesday.
Law & Politics

Trump began by asking if the reporter was talking about the same
Senator McCain who had voted against his side on Obamacare, and then
continued by asking, “What about the alt-left that came charging at
the, as you say, the alt-right? Do they have any semblance of guilt?
Let me ask you this: What about the fact that they came charging with
clubs in their hands, swinging clubs, do they have any problem? I
think they do.” This was a repeat of the first comment he had made, on
Saturday, in reaction to Charlottesville, placing undifferentiated
blame on “many sides,” never mind the swastikas. He had revised that,
on Monday, with a grudgingly delivered statement of what ought to have
been obvious: that white supremacy and Nazism are bad ideologies. Now,
in a couple of lines, he had tossed that aside, like an ill-fitting
suit. But, as he said, he wasn’t finished. Trump kept talking, in
louder, uglier terms.

“You had a group on one side that was bad and you had a group on the
other side that was also very violent. And nobody wants to say that.
But I’ll say that right now.” The bad group was the white
nationalists; the “very violent” group was those who had come to
object. In case anyone missed his point, he continued, “You had a
group on the other side that came charging in—without a permit—and
they were very, very violent.” Trump wasn’t putting the two sides on
the same level; he was saying that the counter-protesters were worse.
His outrage at the counter-protesters’ lack of a permit stood out all
the more, given that he had spent the beginning of the briefing, which
was meant to be about infrastructure and was held in the lobby of
Trump Tower, complaining about how permits slowed down him and other

As this story has played out, what has been striking is how put upon
the President has seemed to feel when asked to condemn neo-Nazis. At
the press conference, he kept insisting that this was a matter of
being responsible—all the facts weren’t in yet. All the facts still
aren’t in, but the swastikas and the Confederate flags were out from
the first moment. The only way Trump wouldn’t have seen them is if he
didn’t want to or didn’t care, or perhaps he viewed them with
political opportunism, emblems of a base to be catered to. All those
explanations—that he is indifferent; that he is calculating—remain on
the table.

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Trump's comments "will not appease his enemies and they will not discourage his supporters." @BV
Law & Politics

And so it is with Trump. You may demand he condemn Nazis and
eventually he might, half-heartedly -- but nothing will change in the
real world. Trump will continue to retweet white supremacist trolls.
He will continue to listen to Steve Bannon, the dark lord of the
alt-right. He will return to what he really feels the moment the
teleprompter is turned off. And his White House’s policies will
continue to be dog-whistles to the kind of people who marched and
killed in Charlottesville.

Everyone knows when Trump’s words mean something and when they mean
nothing. On Tuesday, at Trump Tower, they meant something. On Monday,
at the White House, they meant nothing. The day that Bannon is fired,
that Trump unfollows and stops retweeting white nationalist trolls,
that he gives up on his dumb wall -- perhaps then we can take any
statements from him condemning Nazis seriously. Till then, stop asking
him to make them.

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22-MAY-2017 :: Apocalypse @realDonaldTrump @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics

“The president of the United States has a 12-second attention span,”
NATO’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said.

We are living in an unprecedented moment.

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If a top Trump aide leaves, it could 'start a run on the bank' AXIOS
Law & Politics

A West Wing confidant tells us: "The danger for Trump now is that one
senior resignation will start a run on the bank" — as soon as one top
staffer quits, several others could follow.
White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, exhausted and dismayed, was
shown in iconic TV shots with his head hanging during Trump's blast.
He's building a more rigorous system for the staff, but it's not
taking with the president.

read more

Law & Politics

Hope Hicks may be the only person outside of Jared and Ivanka to truly
understand that you can’t control Trump.

Frequently operating without a clear leader, the White House
communications team has struggled to control Trump’s messaging—which
is, it seems, the way he prefers it. Hence the strategic appointment
of Hope Hicks, the 28-year-old Trump aide who has risen from campaign
staffer to one of the president’s closest confidantes. The Daily
Caller was the first to report that Hicks, who previously served as
White House director of strategic communications, would step into
Scaramucci’s shoes.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1757
Dollar Index 93.54
Japan Yen 109.94
Swiss Franc 0.9664
Pound 1.2885
Aussie 0.7954
India Rupee 64.155
South Korea Won 1136.84
Brazil Real 3.1532
Egypt Pound 17.7410
South Africa Rand 13.1397

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Alibaba, whose market capitalization is approaching that of Amazon.com, is slated to report its quarterly earnings on Thursday
International Trade

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s market value jumped after its annual
investor-day conference on June 8 when the company forecast 45 percent
to 49 percent revenue growth for the year ending in March. Since then,
the market capitalization for China’s largest online retail company
has surged from 65 percent to 87 percent of Amazon.com Inc.’s value.

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08-MAY-2017 :: a Crude Oil Price Target of $32.00 a Barrel

U.S. crude #oil futures settle at $46.78/bbl. ⬇$0.77. -1.62%. #CME
#NYMEX @Lee_Saks 47.03


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OPEC The Cartel's Last Stand? @gadfly

Since its creation more than half a century ago, OPEC has become the
textbook case of a successful cartel. The 14-member club of crude
exporters, which pumps 40 percent of the oil used every day, has held
immense sway over the price of a critical commodity — and the global
economy. OPEC’s obituary has been written many times, as waves of new
technologies and petroleum discoveries upended the global energy
trade. Yet the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has just
as often defied its critics. It’s facing a new fight for survival as
the U.S., once its biggest customer, unleashes record supplies of
shale oil and the planet turns to renewable energy. The group is
deploying its most trusted tool — cutting output to boost prices — but
whether such tactics can still succeed is unclear.

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08-MAY-2017 :: The OPEC "Go-Go" days of Sheikh Yamani, his prayer beads and delphic pronouncements belong to yesteryear

It’s a wizard of Oz moment, folks.  ere is no one behind the curtain
and this market is primed to crash.

Ahmed Zaki Yamani (Arabic: أحمد زكي يماني‎‎; born 30 June 1930)


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Zinc surged as much as 2.4 percent to $3,029 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, the highest level since 2007

Zinc surged as much as 2.4 percent to $3,029 a ton on the London Metal
Exchange, the highest level since 2007, and traded at $3,023 at 10:47
a.m. in London. Aluminum gained as much as 1.3 percent to $2,075.50 a
ton, the most since November 2014, while nickel, copper and lead all
traded higher.

Base metals rallied to a two-year high last week, as tracked by the
LMEX Index, amid better-than-expected demand in China and a weakening
dollar. The Chinese government is stepping up moves to shut illegal
plants this year, both to cut excess capacity and strengthen efforts
to protect the environment.

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$zinc @TCommodity

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Zimbabwe Seeks Immunity in South Africa for Grace Mugabe

Zimbabwe’s government has requested diplomatic immunity in South
Africa for President Robert Mugabe’s wife Grace Mugabe after a charge
of assault was laid against her.

“Mrs. Mugabe’s legal team has asked for diplomatic immunity and the
request is under consideration,” Clayson Monyela, spokesman for South
Africa’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation, said
by phone on Wednesday. “It will be considered by our political

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Angola's UNITA open to coalition of opposition parties after election

Angola's UNITA is willing to form a coalition government with other
opposition parties after elections next Wednesday if the ruling MPLA
party loses power for the first time since independence in 1975, its
presidential candidate said.

The National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) won
just 18 percent in the last election in 2012 and the People's Movement
for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) won a landslide 72 percent.

But with Angola in the midst of an economic crisis caused by a fall in
oil prices, the opposition is hoping to grow its tally, though a lack
of credible polling in the country makes the result unpredictable.

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Congo's President Denis Sassou Nguesso admitted Monday that his oil-rich country was facing a serious economic crisis

Congo’s President Denis Sassou Nguesso admitted Monday that his
oil-rich country was facing a serious economic crisis, though he said
it was not an “irreparable disaster”.

He notably called on former rebel chief Frederic Bitsamou, leader of
the so-called Ninja rebel group and accused of violence against
communities in the south of the country, to turn himself in to the

The public debt of Congo, a small central African country of 4.5
million people, represents 117 percent of its GDP, according to the
International Monetary Fund, which recently said that Brazzaville had
hidden part of its debt from the IMF.

“Our country has real difficulties, nobody should hide them,” Sassou
Nguesso said in a speech broadcast on the 57th anniversary of the
country’s independence.

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Zambia opposition leader goes free after state drops treason charges

"The DPP (Director of Public Prosecutions) has decided to terminate
these proceedings by virtue of her constitutional powers. Therefore,
you're hereby discharged," said high court judge Charles Chanda.

"I'm now ten times stronger," says Zambia's freed opposition leader
Hichilema as treason charges are dropped 🇿🇲


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South Africa's credit rating may be cut to junk if policies become "even less predictable"

South Africa’s credit rating may be cut to junk if its policies become
“even less predictable” or shift in a way that could undermine the
economy, Moody’s Investors Service said.

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This Bank's Stock Price Has Jumped 50,000% Since 2002

Nothing, outside a financial-market collapse on the scale of the Great
Recession, can faze Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd.

The lender’s stock has gained in all but one of the years since it
began trading in February 2002, jumping more than 50,000 percent, the
most among banks across emerging markets during that period. Even as
South Africa battles an economy ravaged by political unrest, the
shares have climbed 24 percent this year, about nine times the rate
peers on the FTSE/JSE Africa Banks Index.

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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.1397

Egypt plans to return to international debt markets with a $4 billion
Eurobond sale


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +34.34% 2017


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +34.14% 2017


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Kenya's opposition is heading to court to contest the election's result Quartz Africa
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s opposition leader Raila Odinga said he will challenge the
results of the general election at the Supreme Court, standing by his
claims that the electoral system was hacked and the results rigged in
president Uhuru Kenyatta’s favor. In a press conference in the capital
Nairobi, Odinga questioned the electoral commission’s tallying
process, and termed Kenyatta’s re-election as “null and void.”

“We have now decided to move to the Supreme Court and lay before the
world the making of a computer generated leadership,” Odinga, flanked
by members of his NASA coalition, said.

In the much-anticipated speech, Raila condemned the government’s
heavy-handed response to opposition protesters and the recent closure
of civil and human rights organizations. Kenyans, he added,”are being
told not to protest against a leader they believe is being imposed on
them through computer-generated fraud,” Odinga said. “We refuse to sit
and watch Jubilee turn our country into a banana republic and a

More than 15 million Kenyans voted in the Aug. 8 polls, delivering a
resounding victory for president Uhuru Kenyatta who won by over 54% to
Odinga’s 44.7%. But as the results started trickling in on the evening
of the vote, Raila and his NASA coalition held a press conference at 2
am in the morning calling the results “fake” and “fictitious.” They
later claimed that the voting system was hacked in the president’s
favor, and called it an “attack on our democracy.”

In his speech on Wednesday (Aug. 16), Odinga called on Kenyans to
exercise civil disobedience and for “all African democrats” to show
solidarity with Kenyans. “We shall hold vigils, moments of silence,
beat drums and do everything else to peacefully draw attention to the
gross electoral injustices being meted on our country,” Odinga said.
“We will not accept and move on.”


I believe the ''We got him'' document was a Plant and therefore, to
make an argument on the basis of that document is untenable. This is
now absolutely a Fait Accompli.

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14-AUG-2017 :: Finding the Off-Ramp. @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy

What we have learnt is that 5%-6% GDP growth (whilst better than most
of Africa) after being diluted by population expansion is not
effecting meaningful trickle-down. It was this fact (re-characterised
as a refrain ‘’You cannot eat GDP’’) which the opposition failed to
leverage, to their own chagrin.  erefore, we have to find a GDP
Off-Ramp, one where the economy speeds up to 8% and more. Kenya has to
dash for growth, that’s a sine qua non for the next five years.

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.@Coopbankenya reports H1 2017 PAT -10.427% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           17.55
Total Shares Issued:          5867179554
Market Capitalization: 102,969,001,172
EPS:             2.2
PE:                 7.977

H1 Kenya government Securities held to maturity 47.617600b vs.
41.674100b +14.262%
H1 Loans and advances to customers (net) 252.612566b vs. 221.288801b +14.155%
H1 Total Assets 383.326294b vs. 363.008665b +5.597%
H1 Customer deposits 285.753364b vs. 278.252423b +2.696%
H1 Total shareholders’ funds 64.477546b vs. 57.936673b +11.290%
H1 Total interest income 19.257831b vs. 21.472095  -10.312%
H1 Net interest income 13.418210b vs. 14.462694b -7.222%
H1 Total non-interest income 7.106144b vs. 6.849420b +3.696%
H1 Total operating income 20.524354b vs. 21.312114b -3.696%
H1 Loan loss provision [1.509311b] vs. [1.310000b] +15.215%
H1 Total other operating expenses [11.347233b] vs. [10.963659b] +3.499%
H1 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 9.177121b vs.
10.348456b -11.319%
H1 Profit/ [Loss] before tax 9.269421b vs. 10.445933b -11.263%
H1 Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 6.637412b vs.
7.410084b -10.427%
Basic & diluted EPS 1.13 vs. 1.52 -25.658%
No interim dividend
Gross NPL and Advances 12.222665b vs. 10.253392b +19.206%
Total NPL and Advances 11.251117b vs. 9.037452b +24.494%
Liquidity ratio 35.3% vs. 41.6% -6.300%
Cash and cash equivalents 16.362935b
Number of Shares : 5,867,179,554

Bank Commentary

a commendable performance against the backdrop of a tight operating
environment especially with the capping of interest rates, general
economic slowdown in an election year, currency devaluation and
hyperinflation in South Sudan.
Cost to income ratio at 47.9% H1 2017 versus 52.1% in FY 2016
6.53m account-Holders, 8,000 Banking Agents 580 ATMs
3.33m customers all-telco Mco-op Cash Mobile Wallet
90% of customer transactions via alternative delivery channels


Better than respectable Earnings in a challenging environment and they
have a largely captive Customer Base which is a significant area of

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TPS Serena Hotels @serenahotels reports H1 EPS [1.09] 2017 Earnings
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           27.00
Total Shares Issued:          182174108.00
Market Capitalization:        4,918,700,916
EPS:             0.54
PE:                 50.000

TPS manages 15 hotels and resorts across East Africa under the Serena
brand name.

H1 Sales 2.621823b vs. 2.656219b -1.295%
H1 Profit before exchange loss, interest, depreciation and taxation
80.251m vs. 180.980m -55.658%
H1 Exchange loss on foreign currency loans [45.703m] vs. [10.569] -332.425%
H1 Net interest cost [70.752m] vs. [54.781m] -29.154%
H1 Depreciation on Property, plant and equipment [194.582m] vs.
[189.786m] -2.527%
H1 Loss before income tax [230.786m] vs. [74.156m] -211.217%
H1 Loss after taxation [188.796m] vs. [57.627m] -227.617%
H1 Loss per share attributable to equity holders of the company [1.09]
vs. [0.43] -153.488%
Equity 9.411265b vs. 9.571263b -1.672%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 771.248m vs. 12.647m
No interim dividend


During the First half of 2017, the domestic and to some extent the
foreign leisure tourism segment in East Africa witnessed a slow but
encouraging growth in business levels compared to last year.
satisfactory growth in the corporate segment
current indications for the Kenyan Safari segment look much healthier
particularly for Mara and Laikipia.
Kenya coastal region continues to record low materialisation from the
foreign leisure market segment as a result of lack of charters and
international scheduled flights into Mombasa from source markets
Nairobi Serena has been operating only with 46% of its room inventory
...upgrade program.
given the seasonal nature of the tourism industry in East Africa, the
results for H1 2017 are not a basis for forecasting a FY result
Notwithstanding the challenging business environment, Management looks
at H2 with much optimism and with our tested and highly successful
business model
No interim Dividend


Mombasa is soft, Nairobi is being refurbished [they are spending some
cash] and they are looking at a good election.
On a NAV basis its worth much more than the market Cap of $49m
Its a Buy, in fact

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The Serena The Star
Kenyan Economy

MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the
managing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager. I was then a
teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at
table tennis, in a bikini. That table tennis Table is still there. The
Serena brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds
me of happy joyful carefree halcyon days of youth. That brand equity
was appreciated last Thursday at the Grosvenor House where The Serena
Hotels won the Best Hospitality, Travel and Tourism in Africa award at
the African Business Awards.

And now, Serena is clearly staking out a much more forward and
offensive position across the region and as you know by now, I sense
the Eastern sea board of Africa is at a tipping Point [The oil and gas
refers but just as important is the late cycle arrival of the
information century which is the entry ticket for Africa to join in
the c21st That Arrival of the Information Century is very grass roots
because anyone with an Internet enabled mobile phone has an entry
ticket and therefore, I see the expansion of the brand as timely and
riding a rising tide. The brand is established. Its got breadth, its
not a mom and pop operation. Sure, lots of folks are coming for Serena
lunch but their longevity, their ability to navigate has been proven
and their DNA make them a formidable competitor.

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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +27.72% 2017
Kenyan Economy

4,069.34 -44.67 -1.09%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


read more

N.S.E Today

The Dollar which has cratered this year predominantly undercut by the
antics of President Trump who has metasized into a lightning rod for
elevated geopolitical uncertainty might be readying itself for a
The Shilling was last trading at 103.35 versus the Dollar and as
improved off lows of 104.00 traded just ahead of the Elections. I
expect strong Portfolio Inflows post the Election which will support
the Shilling to a 102.00 handle.
The decision by the Opposition to take their challenge to the Courts
was uniquely positive wit respect to Political risk and The Shilling
is reacting to that.
An index of base metals has climbed to a more-than two-year high, Zinc
surged above $3,000 a metric ton for the first time in almost a decade
while aluminum approached a three-year high.
The Nairobi All Share corrected lower for the 3rd consecutive session
to close -0.42% lower at 166.08. The All Share is +24.555% in 2017 and
this is a gentle correction in the context of a rampant bull Market
which kicked off in May this Year.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index closed 23.45 points lower at 4045.89. The
NSE20 Index is +26.98% through 2017.
After meeting with their Trustees, a lot of Local institutional
Investors are going to have to enter this market otherwise their
performance will be so woeful it will be embarrassing,
Equity Turnover was 563.287m.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

TPS Serena Hotels reported First Half Earnings pre-market opening
where H1 Sales declined -1.295% to 2.621823b,  H1 Profit before
exchange loss, interest, depreciation and taxation clocked 80.251m
-55.658%,  they reported a sharply higher H1 Exchange loss on foreign
currency loans of [45.703m]  -332.425%,  H1 Loss after taxation was
[188.796m]  -227.617% and H1 Earnings Per Share was [1.09] versus
[0.43]. There were a number of extenuating circumstances, the flag
ship ''Nairobi Serena has been operating only with 46% of its room
inventory'' and the Coast was characterised as follows ''Kenya coastal
region continues to record low materialisation from the foreign
leisure market segment as a result of lack of charters and
international scheduled flights into Mombasa from source markets.''
Serena described the Mara and Laikipia Safari circuits as looking much
healthier.  Serena added ''given the seasonal nature of the tourism
industry in East Africa, the results for H1 2017 are not a basis for
forecasting a FY result'' and struck an optimistic closing note
''Management looks at H2 with much optimism and with our tested and
highly successful business model'' We knew Mombasa was soft, that
Nairobi is being refurbished [they are spending some cash] but
consider that the recently concluded election is now going to turn
into a tail-wind and therefore, i think Serena is a Buy at these
levels on an H2 Earnings rebound. TPS Serena firmed +1.85% to close at
a 2017 high of 27.50. TPS Serena is +34.14% in 2017 and has more scope
to the upside as it is emerging from a long entrenched price

Safaricom closed unchanged at 24.25 and traded 1.528m shares only
which is signalling Supply is close to being extinguished at this
price point which is bullish for the Price.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

COOP Bank Kenya reported H1 2017 Earnings where H1 Loans and advances
to customers (net) expanded +14.155% to clock 252.612566b, H1 Profit/
[Loss] after tax and exceptional items declined -10.427% to 6.637412b.
COOP Bank in their commentary spoke of ''a commendable performance
against the backdrop of a tight operating environment especially with
the capping of interest rates, general economic slowdown in an
election year, currency devaluation and hyperinflation in South
Sudan''  COOP Bank's Cost to income ratio was at 47.9% in H1 2017
versus 52.1% in FY 2016 They spoke of having 6.53m account-Holders,
8,000 Banking Agents 580 ATMs and 3.33m customers on their all-telco
Mco-op Cash Mobile Wallet Platform. These were better than respectable
Earnings in a challenging environment and they have a largely captive
Customer Base which is a significant source of operational leverage
and advantage. COOP Bank eased -0.56% to close at 17.45 and traded
2.939m shares. COOP Bank is +64.69% in 2017 on a Total Return Basis,
when you factor in the bonus share that Shareholders received for
every 5 held.

Standard Chartered firmed +0.43% to close at 234.00 and was trading at
session highs of 240.00 +3.00%. Supply is real thin. StanChart is
+31.21% on a Total Return Basis in 2017 and as scope to test the
upside towards 250.00-260.00.
Equity Bank ticked -1.14% lower to close at 43.25 and on good volume
action of 5.106m shares worth 220.838m.
KCB eased -1.68% to close at 44.00 and traded 1.394m shares.

Liberty Kenya closed unchanged at 14.00 [a 2017 closing high] and
traded 5.801m shares [1.082% of its issued shares] worth 81.22m.
Liberty Kenya is +6.46% in 2017 and trades on a Trading PE Multiple of

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

KenGen closed unchanged at 9.20 and traded 702,600 shares. PIC SA
extinguished the surplus supply and to very good effect. KenGen is
+58.62% in 2017.


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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August 2017

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