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Friday 25th of August 2017 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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Feb 2012 Nairobi has an edginess which can become very intense. Africa |
There are two Africas now. The average age in Sub African Africa is 20. These folks are all connected, surfing the now in a way that is breathtaking. I work not more than 10 minutes walk from the Norfolk. It is urban, highly aspirational, tech savvy (after all, Kenya was the laboratory that gave birth to the mobile money sensation M-Pesa], it’s a hub. The traffic can be frightful but it’s on the move. Nairobi has an edginess which can become very intense. And as the year was ending, I really wanted to step off the train. I wanted to feel a different, more ancient African pulse. We had been to the Fairmont Mara five years ago.
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China prepares for an era of asymmetric warfare FT Law & Politics |
With their tiny propellers buzzing, the fleet of Chinese aircraft, little larger than model planes, are flung into the air one at a time by huge rubber bands. Soon the sky is full of toylike drones flying in formations over unidentified mountains in China.
This unlikely spectacle could represent a revolution in military affairs. The June 11 demonstration of “swarm” technology by China Electronics Technology Group, a state-owned high-tech company, included 119 drones. That made it the world’s largest-ever swarm, according to CETC, breaking a US-held record.
Each tiny aircraft — bought online for a few hundred dollars — is loaded with software and sensors capable of communicating with the other drones in the swarm. Developers are working towards a future where thousands could operate in sync, identifying and attacking targets. In theory, such swarms could feature drones fitted with missiles or warheads capable of sophisticated attacks designed to overwhelm defences with their sheer numbers.
“This goes all the way back to the tactics of Attila the Hun,” says Randall Steeb, senior engineer at the Rand Corporation in the US. “A light attack force that can defeat more powerful and sophisticated opponents. They come out of nowhere, attack from all sides and then disappear, over and over.”
China’s two-decade effort to modernise its military has seen it develop stealth fighters, guided missile destroyers and ballistic “carrier killer” missiles, while also reducing troop numbers. It will spend at least $152bn this year on its military, but only in a few areas has it come close to surpassing US technology. Beijing is now betting that swarms of drones, low-tech hardware knitted together with high-tech artificial intelligence, will become a weapon of the future.
For example, swarms of autonomous boats could appear when a US ship sails close to a disputed island in the South China Sea and block its path. Referred to by the US military as “grey-zone threats”, they could leave a superior military with a dilemma about how to respond without appearing to be the aggressor.
“Swarming is currently considered to be one of the most promising areas of defence technology development in the world,” says Vasily Kashin, an expert on China’s military at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. “The Chinese are prioritising it.”
As is Washington. “Clearly the US and China are in some sort of weird swarm race,” says Paul Scharre, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security who writes on military robotics. “A swarm with 10 more individual drones isn’t necessarily better. What matters are the things you can’t see. It’s the algorithms that govern the swarm behaviour.”
Conclusions
Xi Jinping behaves as if China has made a great military Leap forward.
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Russian nuclear bombers fly near North Korea in rare show of force Law & Politics |
Russian nuclear-capable strategic bombers have flown a rare mission around the Korean Peninsula at the same time as the United States and South Korea conduct joint military exercises that have infuriated Pyongyang.
Russia, which has said it is strongly against any unilateral U.S. military action on the peninsula, said Tupolev-95MS bombers, code named “Bears” by NATO, had flown over the Pacific Ocean, the Sea of Japan, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, prompting Japan and Seoul to scramble jets to escort them.
The flight, which also included planes with advanced intelligence gathering capabilities, was over international waters and was announced by the Russian Defence Ministry on the same day as Moscow complained about the U.S.-South Korean war games.
“The US and South Korea holding yet more large-scale military and naval exercises does not help reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the foreign ministry, told a news briefing in Moscow.
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A pattern you may have noticed: many bot and troll accounts have usernames that end in 8 random digits. Conspirador Norteno Law & Politics |
I searched through two recent datasets (propagators of #FireMcMaster and #UniteTheRight hashtags) and found 824 such accounts. Conspirador Norteño Searching their followers for similarly named accounts, and subsequently their followers' followers yielded 63099 accounts. Conspirador Norteño Here's the follower network formed by those 63099 accounts. Larger circle = more accounts with the 8-digit numbers among its followers Conspirador Norteño Let's look at the largest node in the network, DavidJo52951945. This account's been around for a while - since early 2013, 136K tweets. Conspirator Norteño Here's an interesting observation - David is posting 8 AM - 8 PM every day, Moscow time. Almost like it's his job or something. Conspirator Norteño
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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."_ Law & Politics |
I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support. Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist.
Along comes the 2016 US election, and DavidJo52951945 is tweeting some very familiar-sounding material about Hillary Clinton. Conspirator Norteño Very alt-right-esque messaging about Michael Flynn and "deep state". Bear in mind that DavidJo52951945 is posing as British. Conspirator Norteño I do have to say, this is one of the more interesting troll accounts I've seen (and almost certainly human-operated, not a bot). Conspirator Norteño Conclusion? A) Almost certainly a Russian invention and B) a far more influential social media node than your average bot. #TrumpRussia Conspirator Norteño
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05-DEC-2016 Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are his information victims. Law & Politics |
Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short stories: The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”. He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at Colorado Command: “We have a deviate, Tomahawk.” “We copy. There’s a voice.” “We have gross oscillation here.” “There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s helping.” “We are clearing an outframe to locate source.” “ Thank you, Colorado.” “It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the step-function quad.” “It was a voice,” I told them. “We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.” The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”. “Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60 years ago.”
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Australian War Photographer Andrew Quilty on Life in Afghanistan Law & Politics |
Gul Ahmad, an infant boy suffering from acute malnutrition, is covered by his mother's scarf while being treated in the therapeutic feeding centre ward at the Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) administered Boost Hospital in Lashkar Gah, the capial of Helamnd Province in southern Afghanistan. According to MSF staff, malnutrition is a chronic problem in Afghanistan.
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Tanzanian court starts trial of co-founders of whistleblower website Law & Politics |
A Tanzanian court on Thursday began hearing a case against two co-founders of a whistleblower website who are charged with obstructing justice by refusing to reveal the identities of users who post details of suspected corrupt officials.
Prosecutors charged Micke William and Maxence Melo Mubyazi, owners of the Jamiiforums site, under the Cybercrimes Act.
Several people have been charged under the law, which came into effect in 2015, and it is viewed by rights groups and the opposition as part of efforts by President John Magufuli’s government to limit liberties such as freedom of expression.
If convicted, William, 27, and Mubyazi, 40, could face a fine of up to 3 million shillings ($1,300) or a jail term of at least one year, or both. They denied the charges.
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Angola's Ruling Party Leads With 65 Percent of Provisional Count Africa |
The ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola led a provisional vote count in Wednesday’s election in Africa’s second-biggest oil producer, winning 64.6 percent with almost two-thirds of the results reported.
The main opposition Union for the Total Independence of Angola, or Unita, received 24.4 percent, Julia Ferreira, a spokeswoman for the National Electoral Commission, told reporters Thursday in Luanda, the capital. The Broad Consensus for Angolan Salvation-Electoral Coalition party, the second-biggest opposition group, obtained 8.6 percent, she said.
The MPLA will probably gain control of Angola’s 220-member legislature and have its presidential candidate, Joao Lourenco, 63, succeed outgoing President Jose Eduardo dos Santos. Voter turnout was 77 percent, according to the electoral commission. Dos Santos, Africa’s second-longest serving ruler who led Angola through a civil war, an oil-fueled boom and a bust, is stepping down after 38 years in power.
“These results aren’t real,” Jose Pedro Katchiungo, a Unita official, told reporters in Luanda. “The National Electoral Commission was a disaster.”
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Dos Santos is said to enjoy music and poetry as well as cooking fish, and was once a keen footballer Africa |
Though seldom seen in public, he has been a looming presence in daily life for as long as most Angolans can remember, maintaining fierce control over the country throughout its devastating civil war and recent oil boom.
He is “an accomplished and shrewd economic and political dealmaker with an instinct for political survival,” said Alex Vines of Chatham House, a British think-tank.
Married to the glamorous former air hostess Ana Paula, who is 18 years his junior, his children include Isabel, who is head of the state-owned Sonangol oil company and reputed to be Africa’s richest woman – worth $3 billion.
As head of the military, police and cabinet, the president operates with few constraints.
He chooses senior judges and had MPLA allies in all public agencies, including the supposedly independent electoral commission.
The state keeps a firm hand on the media, and his picture often appeared on the front pages of newspapers as well as on countless billboards and posters.
Conclusions
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Dos Santos Inc. under threat Africa Confidential Africa |
There is one thing about the general elections of 23 August we can be almost certain of: Defence Minister João Lourenço, hand-picked by President José Eduardo dos Santos, remains stoutly loyal to his mentor and should win the Presidency comfortably. Then the questions start. Will a President Lourenço also feel the need to extend that loyalty to Dos Santos's family, some of whom have their own billion dollar empires?
Lourenço's campaign on national television and social media has made much of the need to clamp down on corruption and restructure tne economy away from a parasitic dependence on revenues from opaque oil sales. At his last campaign rally on 18 August, Lourenço acknowledged the growing hardships of the 'povo' (people) as he spelt out plans to run a more productive and export-oriented economy. He made no links between the stratospheric wealth of the elite and mass poverty.
Other members of the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola are less constrained. Opposition to the Dos Santos 'family business' in particular, has been growing in MPLA circles. Recently, a respected general, Manuel Mendes de Carvalho Pacavira 'Paka', expressed out loud what could never previously be said in public when he threatened to put presidential daughter Isabel dos Santos in prison, and openly called her father corrupt in a July interview with the Voice of America's Portuguese service. That outburst may explain the statute passed this year that gives tenure to Dos Santos's appointees heading the armed forces and security services.
Most Angolans, and foreigners doing business there, know that Isabel is a multi-billionaire, and her brother, José Filomeno de Sousa dos Santos 'Zenu', controls Angola's Sovereign Wealth Fund, one of the biggest in Africa. Much less well-known is the pervasive role in the mass media of a company run by two of President Dos Santos's lesser-known children, the 39-year-old Welwitschia 'Tchizé' and her younger brother José Paulino, 32, aka 'Coréon Dú' (AC Vol 53 No 2, Marques takes them on).
Semba Comunicação has taken immense sums of money from the public purse to produce mass media propaganda for domestic and foreign consumption, some of it through a heavily subsidised television station, TPA2 (Televisão Pública de Angola). 'They are the real Ministry of Culture,' one former culture ministry civil servant told Africa Confidential. 'When and where the money for cultural promotion goes is their decision and they answer to nobody about how the money is spent,' he added. Although severely hit by Angola's chronic foreign exchange shortage, Semba is still highly influential.
After the elections, Lourenço will come under pressure to rein in the Dos Santos family's business empire. How far and fast he goes may be the first big test of his Presidency.
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Congo H1 copper output up 15 pct, inflation to hit 52 pct -cbank Africa |
Copper output in Congo, Africa's top producer of the metal, rose 15 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2017 to more than half a million tonnes, and cobalt production surged 27 percent to almost 40,000 tonnes, the central bank said. But despite higher commodity production, Democratic Republic of Congo's central bank forecast year-end inflation at 52.6 percent, up from an earlier projection of 48 percent and from last year's figure of 25 percent. It gave precise H1 figures for copper and cobalt as 553,811 tonnes and 39,535 tonnes, respectively. Increasing prices - copper has risen nearly 19 percent on the London Metals Exchange this year - and ramped up production at several large mines has boosted Congo's output of major metals after two years of stagnation. However, a lag in tax revenues from the mining sector and high government deficits have left the country facing a fiscal crisis with only about three weeks of imports cover left. The franc currency is set to lose more than a third of its value this year, which has fuelled Congo's worst inflation since the global financial crisis in 2009.
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15-MAY-2017 :: Africa Plays Catch Up @TheStarKenya Africa |
The rest of Africa had badly lagged this global rally. Here in Nairobi, the All Share crashed -10.11% from the start of the year through March 8. The Nairobi NSE20 slumped -12.467% through January 30 when it closed at a multi- year low. Everyone I spoke to was ready to throw in the towel. Over on the West side, Nigeria’s All Share was -8.53% through March 6 of this year. Ghana has been a stand-out this year, but overall the sub-Saharan Africa’s markets started the year seriously in the doldrums. Well, we have seen quite a meaningful rebound of late. The Nairobi All Share is now +3.34% in 2017 and at a six- month high, the NSE-20 Share Index is also at a six-month high. The Nigerian All Share is now +4.9% in 2017 and at a nine-month high and just came off an eleven session winning streak. There has been a significant mood change.
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South Africa considers Telkom stake sale to fund SAA bailout: Treasury Africa |
South Africa is considering selling its stake in landline provider Telkom to fund a 10 billion rand ($757 million) bailout of South African Airways (SAA), a Treasury spokesman said on Wednesday.
The airline runs one of Africa's biggest fleets but is loss-making. It received state funds in July to help to repay debts and also depends on government debt guarantees of about 20 billion rand.
"It's an option among others we are looking into, and nothing has been finalised," Treasury spokesman Mayihlome Tshwete said.
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The annual bill for paying 700,000 public employees, including elected leaders, stands at 627 billion shillings ($6.1 billion) Kenyan Economy |
The annual bill for paying 700,000 public employees, including elected leaders, stands at 627 billion shillings ($6.1 billion), which is equal to half of the government's revenue.
The Salaries and Remuneration Commission (SRC), which sets wage levels, said last month it would slash salaries of top officials, including the president and lawmakers, to save 8.5 billion shillings a year.
The cuts include scrapping a 5 million-shilling car grant given to every legislator, removal of certain allowances and a 90,000-shilling reduction in basic monthly pay.
Kenyans have reacted angrily to lawmakers' demands for the reversal of the cuts. They posted fiery messages on social media, threatening to recall their members of parliament, and forcing at least one MP to perform a U-turn on television and say she would "humbly" accept the SRC's decision.
Many elected representatives lost their seats to newcomers and independents in the Aug. 8 election, and Kenyatta attributed that partly to voter displeasure with profligacy.
"It is shameful that we are barely a week away and they (legislators) have not recognised the issues that made Kenyans angry," he said.
Conclusions
No way
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'The boss wants to talk to you': former UN rights expert on Kenya airport ordeal Kenyan Economy |
Maina Kiai, a human rights activist, was held for up to two hours at the country’s largest airport while trying to board a flight from Nairobi to Amsterdam on Sunday. Campaigners said it was the latest in a series of attempts to harass activists, following the country’s recent disputed elections.
“It’s something that has never happened to me before,’” said Kiai. “I went to the immigration counter to get my passport stamped, as we all do when we leave the country. The attendant said, ‘Would you please wait in the room, the boss wants to talk to you.’”
Kiai, the former UN special rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association, was told he needed clearance to leave the country. After speaking to the media, he was able to contact to the director of immigration, who eventually allowed him to board his plane. “He said, ‘Oh, sorry, it’s a misunderstanding, you can fly now’. He refused to tell me why I was not questioned,” Kiai said.
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Diamond Trust Bank reports H1 2017 EPS -5.363% Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 4/- Closing Price: 190.00 Total Shares Issued: 266321115.00 Market Capitalization: 50,601,011,850 EPS: 26.94 PE: 7.053
Prominent Kenyan commercial bank
H1 Government securities 105.408678b vs. 78.603059b +34.103% H1 Loans and advances to customers 191.469262b vs. 178.526591b +7.250% H1 Total assets 343.710264b vs. 301.915966b +13.843% H1 Customer deposits 256.338364b vs. 216.114485b +18.612% H1 Total equity 48.545220b vs. 40.904423b +18.680% H1 Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period 1.884997b vs. 3.213457b -41.341% H1 Interest income 16.851275b vs. 16.729801b +0.726% H1 Interest expense [7.357449b] vs. [7.161738b] +2.733% H1 Net interest income 9.493826b vs. 9.568063b -0.776% H1 Net fees and commission income 1.623847b vs. 1.513173b +7.314% H1 Foreign exchange income 793.840m vs. 895.683m -11.370% H1 Operating income 12.032853b vs. 12.077567b -0.370% H1 Operating expenses [5.279977b] vs. [4.630116b] +21.679% H1 Impairment loss on loans and advances [1.715759b] vs. [2.190674b] -21.679% H1 Profit from operations 5.037117b vs. 5.256777b -4.179% H1 Profit before income tax 5.045547b vs. 5.259935b -4.076% H1 Profit for the period 3.412475b vs. 3.621869b -5.781% Basic and diluted EPS 12.00 vs. 12.68 -5.363% No interim dividend
Conclusions
+34.103% Expansion in GOK Bond positions Customer loan Book +7.25% Operating Expenses +21.679% Looks a value proposition at a Trailing PE of 7.053
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Bamburi Cement reports H1 EPS 2017 -38.601% Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 199.00 Total Shares Issued: 362959275.00 Market Capitalization: 72,228,895,725 EPS: 14.44 PE: 13.781
H1 Turnover 17.535b vs. 19.111b -8.247% H1 Operating costs [14.879b] vs. [14.962b] -0.555% H1 Operating profit 2.656b vs. 4.149b -35.985% H1 Investment income 97m vs. 218m -55.505% H1 Finance costs [28m] vs. [18m] +55.556% H1 Profit before tax 2.672b vs. 4.272b -37.453% H1 Profit for the period 1.848b vs. 2.899b -36.254% EPS 4.39 vs. 7.15 -38.601% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 7.405b vs. 10.456b -29.179% Interim dividend 2.50 vs. 6.00 -58.833%
Company Commentary
The business in Kenya experienced a difficult business environment characterised by a contracting market, low private sector investment resulting in slump in construction activity especially in the individual home builder segment, delays in some infrastructure projects, and drought conditions. In contrast, the business in Uganda enjoyed good market conditions in both domestic and export markets with Hima recording good performance. Operating Profit reduced from 4.1b to 2.7b due to lower revenues, higher coal prices driven by increased world coal prices and higher power costs following drought conditions in Kenya. Profit before Tax declined to 2.7b from 4.3b due to lower operating profit, impact of lower cash deposits at lower interest rates and lower foreign exchange gains. Cash decreased to 7.4b due to payments for the capacity expansion in both Kenya and Uganda together with lower cash from operations. phase 1 of the capacity expansion project in both Kenya and Uganda tat will see the Group's cement grinding capacity increase by 1.8m tons is on course commissioning of both projects scheduled for mid 2018 Interim Dividend 2.50 versus 6.00
Conclusions
Poor H1 see above Company Commentary.
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BOC Kenya reports H1 EPS 2017 -37.249% Earnings Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 108.00 Total Shares Issued: 19525446.00 Market Capitalization: 2,108,748,168 EPS: 6.47 PE: 16.692
H1 Revenue 515.631m vs. 539.876m -4.491% H1 Earnings before finance income and taxes 42.551m vs. 75.775m -43.846% H1 Net finance income 27.780m vs. 24.810m +11.971% H1 Exchange gains/ [Losses] [9.304m] vs. [4.368m] -113.004% H1 Profit before tax 61.027m vs. 96.217m -36.574% H1 Profit for the year 42.710m vs. 68.116m -37.298% Basic EPS 2.19 vs. 3.49 -37.249% Interim dividend 2.20 vs. 2.20 – Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 102.173m vs. 132.801m -23.063% Total equity 1.735894b vs. 1.745465b -0.548%
Conclusions
Soft H1 Have paid out 100.45% of H1 EPS as H1 Dividend
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(IRA) now requires life insurance firms to use gross premiums valuation (GPV) when providing for liabilities in their books rather than net premiums valuation previously Kenyan Economy |
Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) now requires life insurance firms to use gross premiums valuation (GPV) when providing for liabilities in their books rather than net premiums valuation (GPV) previously.
That had gifted Britam with Sh1.5 billion in savings on claims, which was factored in half-year net profit for 2016.
“In 2016, we released a lot of reserves after we switched to GPV. We don’t have a lot of that year. It has normalised and you can see that in this year’s profitability number,” group managing director Benson Wairegi told investors Thursday. The firm booked Sh680 million more in gross premiums in the six-month period to Sh11.69 billion from Sh11.01 billion in the same period a year ago.
Net claims, however, rose 84.76 per cent to Sh6.67 billion, Britam reported, eating into net profit for the period under review.
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