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Monday 26th of August 2019
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Afternoon,
Africa
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Register and its all Free.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
Macro Thoughts
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BIARRITZ, France - G7 leaders discuss global economics and trade via @GettyImages @GabbyOrr_
Africa
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I don't remember of a week when the world fed you with so many headlines to deal with, starting with the Fed as the "enemy"...to Carnes lese-majeste to Zarif's villegiature in #BiarritzG7 @hervegogo
Africa
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26-AUG-2019 :: China Strikes at Trump
Africa
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''It’s Friday evening in Asia; it’s the weekend. The timing of this
news - smack toward the open in America'' tweeted David ingles. The
Precise timing of the news that China planned retaliatory tariffs on
$75 billion of U.S. goods was deliberate and designed to roil the US
markets. China pronounced that it had reinstated tariffs on cars and
car parts originating in the US and imposed an Extra 5% Tariff On Soy
Beans and a 5% Tariff On U.S. Crude Oil Imports From Sept. 1. The
Chinese have less to work with; They export less than they import
which is the crux of the matter for Trump. What is also clear is that
China has been very precise and taking aim at the Farm and Oil Economy
in particular is designed to strike at Trump's soft underbelly.
Hu Xijin 胡锡进 who occupies a unique position in China's messaging
machine and curates China inc's position in real time tweeted
China has 'lost' the US already: all-round high tariffs, Huawei ban,
political hostility, Hong Kong, Taiwan... We're facing a completely
different United States. We have nothing more to lose, while the US is
just starting to lose China. @HuXijin_GT
Of course, the level of Chinese retaliation was the message and of the
ilk of the Shoe thrower in Iraq all those years ago.
@IvanTheK put it pithily and tweeted
''CHINA TO THE CHOSEN ONE: GFY''
The Chinese Renminbi has now depreciated 10% over 12 months and is
being used as a shock absorber and a very precise first responder to
Trump.
President Trump who had said previously ‘trade wars are good, and easy
to win.’ and only on Wednesday said
“I am the chosen one. Somebody had to do it, I’m taking on China on
trade. And you know what? We’re winning.”
Of course "I am the chosen one'' became a Meme in the blink of an eye
and played to Trump's evangelical base which pays a great deal of
attention to the Book of Revelations;
I am the Alpha and the Omega, says the Lord God, who is and who was
and who is to come, the Almighty.
President Trump responded overnight
Trump said existing 25% tariffs on some $250 billion in imports from
#China would rise to 30% on Oct. 1, the 70th anniversary of the
founding of the People’s Republic of China
Additionally, the remaining 300 BILLION DOLLARS of goods and products
from China, that was being taxed from September 1st at 10%, will now
be taxed at 15%. Thank you for your attention to this matter! tweeted
@realDonaldTrump
Furthermore, President Trump threatened to use emergency authority to
''order'' US businesses to cut ties in China. Trump called the Federal
Reserve Chairman Powell an Enemy bigger than Xi.
Trump's newly minted Defence Minister Esper told Fox that the testing
of previously banned ground-launched intermediate-range missile and
releasing the video of it meant to "deter Chinese bad behavior"
This is now a rupture plain and simple. Safe Havens which were already
in nose-bleed Territory [Gold, Yen, CHF, Sovereign Bonds] and priced
for Armageddon or an Apocalypse Now rallied on the news. The Stock
Markets fell sharply. The overarching Question Investors need to ask
themselves is this
Is this a permanent rupture? Or is this a crazy off the charts
escalation just before a Deal? The Markets pirouette on the answer to
this question.
The President of the African Development Bank spoke to the negative
feedback loop Phenomenon and told Reuters
The U.S.-China trade war and uncertainty over Brexit pose risks to
Africa’s economic prospects that are “increasing by the day”
“You have Brexit, you also have the recent challenges between Pakistan
and India that have flared off there, plus you have the trade war
between the United States and China. All these things can combine to
slow global growth, with implications for African countries.”
“I think the trade war has significantly impacted economic growth
prospects in China and therefore import demand from China has fallen
significantly and so demand for products and raw materials from Africa
will only fall even further,” he said.
“It will also have another effect with regard to China’s own
outward-bound investments on the continent,” he added, saying these
could also affect official development assistance.
There are opportunities for Africa in this rupture and next week I
will look more closely at what those opportunities might be
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#US #Trump says has gotten two calls from #China, they want to make a #trade deal.: We will start shortly to negotiate, this we'll make a deal
Africa
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That follows the overnight Chinese comments in the same direction.Risk
pairs jumping and $Gold off 10 bucks to 1531. #FX
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Update: $USDCNY highest since 26 February 2008 +0.69% @sunchartist 7.1571
Africa
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#G7Biarritz party @Ozkok_A
Africa
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'Trade wars are good, and easy to win.' #Trump #TradeWar @jsblokland
Africa
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CHINA TO THE CHOSEN ONE: GFY @IvanTheK
Africa
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Apocalypse Now - [Air Cav - Valkyrie] HD
Africa
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19-AUG-2019 :: Safe Havens are Priced for Armageddon Now
Africa
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10Y JGB yields getting awfully close now to all-time lows @DavidInglesTV
Africa
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10-year Treasury #yield sinks below 1.46%, close to all-time low of 2016 @jsblokland
Africa
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Richard Wagner: Ride of the Valkyries (Berliner Philharmoniker, Daniel Barenboim)
Africa
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"I am the chosen one. Somebody had to do it," @realDonaldTrump said on Wednesday. "I'm taking on China on trade. And you know what? We're winning." @FT
Africa
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It's Friday evening in Asia; it's the weekend.The timing of this news - smack toward the open in America
Africa
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China plans retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods @jsblokland
Africa
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In an announcement tweeted overnight, #Trump said existing 25% tariffs on some $250 billion in imports from #China would rise to 30% on Oct. 1, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. @C_Barraud
Africa
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27-MAY-2019 :: President Trump is highly tuned to the markets and in fact something of a c21st artiste
Africa
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President Trump is highly tuned to the markets and in fact something
of a c21st artiste. His positive ‘’Trade War’’ tweets are timed around
the US Market hours and designed to soothe, massage and finesse US
asset prices and he turns more ne- gative in Chinese trading hours.
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You used the word "cocksure" about Xi Jinping in your @WPReview article @hofrench the last 36 hours where he has wrestled the "market" console from @realDonaldTrump confirm he has good reason. This is mind bending Jedi level stuff
Africa
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Xi Jinping signalling he has control of the Console.
Africa
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13-AUG-2019 :: The Feedback Loop Phenomenon "The most important currency to watch right now is the USDCNY
Africa
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USDCNH Weekly: Inside and up after the huge 7.00 breakout. 7.1600
Africa
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It's Friday evening in Asia; it's the weekend. The timing of this news - smack toward the open in America
Africa
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09-JUL-2018 :: The Chinese Government has been quite surgical in its response and is targeting the Farm Economy in particular.
Africa
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@realDonaldTrump China To Impose Extra 5% Tariff On Soy Beans From Sept. 1
Africa
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China: Imposes 5% Tariff On U.S. Crude Oil Imports From Sept. 1
Africa
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Additionally, the remaining 300 BILLION DOLLARS of goods and products from China, that was being taxed from September 1st at 10%, will now be taxed at 15%. Thank you for your attention to this matter! @realDonaldTrump
Africa
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The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in
Africa
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The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy”.
He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm
officers at Colorado Command:
“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”
“We copy. There’s a voice.”
“We have gross oscillation here.”
“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”
“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”
“Thank you, Colorado.”
“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”
“It was a voice,” I told them.
“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”
The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.
“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”
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What is clear is that Xi Jinping has repelled the US Advance and this past week's Yuan Price Action was a message delivered with finesse and subtlety and whose import cannot be ignored.
Africa
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The Point is this the Yuan is now the Catalyst and China has signalled it will be a shock absorber. Xi Jinping was also signalling he had control of the Console.
Africa
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The Feedback Loop Phenomenon
Africa
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27-MAY-2019 :: China vs. US War Ballistic
Africa
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09-JUL-2018 :: Tariff wars, who blinks first?
Africa
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Home Thoughts
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Mist surrounds the ship Icebergs draw near The crew fall silent & wait for it to clear @lemnsissay
Africa
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"It's worth it hold on" Said sunrise to the girl "my name is rose" she disclosed : "I'm on top of the world"
Africa
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Weird radio bursts from deep space intensify @RT_com @RickSanchezTV
Africa
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Distinct properties of the radio burst emission from the magnetar XTE J1810−197
Africa
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XTE J1810−197 was the first ever magnetar which was found to emit
transient radio emission. It has recently undergone another radio and
high-energy outburst. This is only the second radio outburst that has
been observed from this source. We observed J1810−197 soon after its
recent radio outburst at low radio frequencies using the Giant
Metrewave Radio Telescope. We present the 650MHz flux density
evolution of the source in the early phases of the outburst, and its
radio spectrum down to frequencies as low as 300 MHz. The magnetar
also exhibits radio emission in the form of strong, narrow bursts. We
show that the bursts have a characteristic intrinsic width of the
order of 0.5−0.7 ms, and discuss their properties in the context of
giant pulses and giant micropulses from other pulsars. We also show
that the bursts exhibit spectral structures which cannot be explained
by interstellar propagation effects. These structures might indicate a
phenomenological link with the repeating fast radio bursts which also
show interesting, more detailed frequency structures. While the
spectral structures are particularly noticeable in the early phases of
the outburst, these seem to be less prominent as well as less frequent
in the later phases, suggesting an evolution of the underlying cause
of these spectral structures.
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The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, "a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy."
Africa
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When a 26-year-old American missionary set out for a lush island in the Indian Ocean last year, it was with one objective in mind: to convert the uncontacted Sentinelese tribe, who had lived for centuries in isolation @GQMagazine
Africa
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After the storm finally passed, a crew of local Christians hid Chau on
their 30-foot open wooden boat and struck out under darkness for the
most extreme outcrop of the Andaman archipelago, on a route presumably
meant to resemble that of a normal fishing expedition. As they dodged
other craft, Chau recorded, “The Milky Way was above and God Himself
was shielding us from the Coast Guard and Navy patrols.” The Indian
government bans contact with the Sentinelese as a way of protecting
them from outsiders—and outsiders from them. The Sentinelese have
maintained their independence by frequently repelling foreigners from
their shoreline with eight-foot-long arrows. Bioluminescent plankton
illuminated fish jumping “like darting mermaids” as the boat motored
more than 60 miles. Sometime before 4:30 a.m., the crew noted three
bonfires on a distant beach and then anchored outside the island’s
barrier reef. While resting, eyes shut but not asleep, Chau had “a
vision as I’ve never had one before,” of a meteorite—possibly
representing himself—streaking toward a “frightening city with jagged
spires,” seemingly Sentinel Island. Then “a whitish light filled [the
city] and all the frightening bits melted away.” He couldn’t help
wondering in his diary: “LORD is this island Satan’s last stronghold
where none have heard or even had a chance to hear Your Name?” Dawn
soon revealed a hut on a white-sand beach, backed by primordial
jungle. Chau off-loaded from the fishermen’s boat a kayak and two
waterproof cases jammed with wilderness survival supplies. He paddled
a half mile in shallow water over dead coral, and as he approached
shore, he heard women “looing and chattering.” Then two dark-skinned
men, wearing little, if anything, ran onto the beach, shouting in a
language spoken by no one on earth besides their tribe. They clutched
bows, though they hadn’t yet strung arrows onto them. From his kayak,
Chau yelled in English: “My name is John. I love you, and Jesus loves
you. Jesus Christ gave me authority to come to you.” Then, offering a
tuna most likely caught by the fishermen on the journey to the island,
Chau declared: “Here is some fish!” In response, the Sentinelese
socketed bamboo arrows onto bark-fiber bowstrings. Chau panicked. He
flung the gift into the bay. As the tribesmen gathered it, he turned
and paddled “like I never have in my life, back to the boat.” By the
time he reached safety, though, his fear was already turning to
disappointment. He swore to himself that he would return later that
day.
Political Reflections
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The airstrike is the first Israeli attack in Iraq since jets destroyed a nuclear reactor being built by Saddam Hussein in 1981. @thetimes
Law & Politics
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Israeli jets attacked an Iranian weapons depot in Iraq in an
escalation of covert strikes to counter Tehran’s growing influence in
the region, US officials have said.
The raid risks destabilising Iraq during a period of relative peace.
The airstrike is the first Israeli attack in Iraq since jets destroyed
a nuclear reactor being built by Saddam Hussein in 1981.
Iranian media reported that a funeral was held the day after the
attack for Abolfazl Sarabian, a Revolutionary Guard commander
described as a “shrine defender”.
Reports said that the base was storing medium-range missiles in
refrigeration lorries. A further shipment of missiles had arrived
before the attack on July 19 from across the Iranian border, 50 miles
away.
Nouri al-Maliki, the former Iraqi prime minister, said that the
Israeli attack would elicit a strong response.
Mr Maliki, who leads a Shia block in the Iraqi parliament, said
yesterday that Israel was fighting a secret war in Iraq. If that
policy continued, he said, Iraq would become “a battle arena that
drags in multiple countries, including Iran”.
“Be sure that if the confrontation between us starts, it will only end
with your removal from the region once and for all,” he warned the
Israelis.
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28-OCT-2013 ::@BarackObama and @HassanRouhani The 2 Husseins
Law & Politics
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28-OCT-2013 :: If the pax Americana in the Middle East were a three legged stool with the US the most important leg, then Israel and Saudi Arabia are the other two legs of that stool.
Law & Politics
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28-OCT-2013 :: Neither Riyadh nor Tel Aviv are aligned with President Obama's Iranian rapprochement and Saudi Arabia in particular has become increasingly forthright and is even threatening its own pivot and away from the US.
Law & Politics
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What drives migration today? The answer is neither war nor politics @FinancialTimes
Law & Politics
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That we live in a populist moment is evident. The list — to some the
litany — of Brexit and Donald Trump, the rise of far-right movements
in Germany and France, the governments of Italy, Poland and Hungary,
is all that is needed to make the case that there is a revolt afoot
against a global, cosmopolitan, liberal consensus.
And more than anything it is attitudes to immigration and to the
resulting rapid ethnic transformation of large parts of the west that
tally closest to support for populist causes.
With immigration so central to the politics of the day, a number of
new books are appearing on the subject. Two share a pan-European lens:
Peter Gatrell’s The Unsettling of Europe: The Great Migration, 1945 to
the Present and Stephen Smith’s The Scramble for Europe: Young Africa
on Its Way to the Old Continent.
Gatrell takes a historical view, placing what is happening now in the
context of population movements which have been going on since the end
of the second world war.
Smith adopts a more geographical perspective, taking as his starting
point the contrasting demographic conditions of Africa and Europe, the
former home to ever-larger cohorts of young people, the latter greying
before our eyes.
These now-distant events have every right to a place in the history
books, and Gatrell has done us a service in chronicling them so
engagingly.
But they have little or nothing to do with the German response to the
2015 Syria migrant crisis or the fact that, ONS data suggest, since
the late 1990s the UK has had more immigration from beyond the British
Isles in an average two-year period than it experienced from the
Norman Conquest to VE Day.
a demographically waning continent, facing Africa, the last great
repository of population dynamism.
Take for example the UK and Nigeria. According to the UN, in 1950,
when still a British colony, the number of Nigerians aged under 10 was
perhaps half as high again than the UK’s. Today there are nearly eight
times as many under-10s in Nigeria versus the UK, despite the latter
having been a land of mass immigration for the best part of two
decades.
By 2050, the UN estimates that the ratio will be more than 12 to one.
Parallels between the ethnic transformation of the developed world and
the millions uprooted in the wake of the second world war are
unconvincing
If migration is the driver of the populism that defines the current
political scene, it is demography — specifically the radically
different demographic profiles of north and south — that creates both
its demand and supply.
Gatrell has little sympathy for the unpopularity of mass migration
across Europe and he devotes little attention to the great demographic
fissures that are driving these migrations today.
Downplaying the historical novelty of a phenomenon, failing to listen
to those unnerved by it and insisting that only its positive side can
be discussed in polite society did not work out well for proponents of
ever-closer European union and it will not do in the debate about
immigration either.
By contrast, it is on an understanding of the underlying demography
where Stephen Smith is at his best. His book is something of a
misnomer. The Scramble for Europe is really about Africa, just as a
book about the Scramble for Africa of the 1880s would really be about
Europe.
Smith locates in Africa the vast population growth that is making it
the mirror image of Europe.
Europe was the first continent out of the Malthusian trap of high
fertility and high mortality into the demographic transition of
persistently high fertility, falling mortality and exploding
population size.
It was Europe’s population growth that made possible its outward
expansion before the first world war, when its children were
populating everywhere from California to Australia.
Africa is the last continent into the demographic transition. While
Europe has for decades seen declining and low family sizes, long life
expectancy and corresponding greying, Africa is still seeing
persistently high fertility, exceptionally fast falls in infant
mortality and extensions in life expectancy, all characteristics of
the late-adopters of the demographic transition.
As a result, population explosion in Africa has been supercharged
compared with earlier adopters of modernity in Europe. If large
numbers of people are a good thing, then this is a case of last-mover
advantage.
The pull of a rich, old Europe in need of workers on a poor young
Africa in search of opportunity is immense. But Smith does not see the
entry of a large number of Africans into Europe as necessarily a good
thing; quite apart from transforming a continent with its own
traditions and patterns of life and provoking a political backlash, it
will strip Africa of its best and brightest and thereby of its own
hopes of progress.
Nor does he fall into the trap of considering it inevitable.
Demography is indeed a great factor in history but it does not remove
the abilities of peoples and nations to make decisions, albeit that
those decisions must be made in a demographic context.
Take, for example, the case of wealthy but ageing Singapore; it is
surrounded by relatively poor Indonesians and Malaysians yet quite
capable of controlling inward migration because it chooses to.
In the end, at current fertility rates, Europeans are breeding
themselves out of existence, some (Spaniards, Italians, Bulgarians,
Estonians, Germans) in the relatively short term, others (Irish,
British, French, Scandinavians) with a slightly longer time horizon.
The latest UK data suggest a lowest-ever birth rate and a sinking
fertility rate. Whether Europeans wish, like the Japanese, to make way
for nature as they abandon villages and even suburbs, or instead to
make way for other people who do wish to reproduce, is ultimately a
decision of policy and practice.
At the root of all of this is not the population boom in Africa or
anywhere else but the ever-smaller family sizes in Europe. Whilst we
should have the courage to stand up to those who wish the whole debate
would go away and are too quick to throw accusations at those who
believe it is healthy and necessary to discuss it, we should be
equally determined to stand up to those on the far-right who speak the
absurd language of “white genocide” and “replacement”. In response to
the white supremacists chanting “they shall not replace us” — and
indeed for predominantly white societies across Europe nervous about
the ethnic change they are witnessing — we need to ask “are you
prepared to reproduce yourselves?”
For Europeans wanting neither a radically new ethnic complexion to
their countries nor their emptying out altogether, an acceptable and
effective pronatalist politics will need to be constructed.
For liberals who are relaxed about immigration and ethnic change, it
is now incumbent upon them to come up with ways in which a coherent
society can be formed from people of different backgrounds.
Just as a nationalist sentiment was required to form the warfare
states of Europe over the past two hundred years, so something new
will be needed in its place if the welfare states of today are to
survive in anything like their current form.
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10 NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara Africa
Law & Politics
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What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected
African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic
dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic
terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the
rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.
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The lights sparkling across the mountains surrounding Hong Kong are the human chain of protesters. #TheHongKongWay protest was a 28 mile human chain of protest last night.
Law & Politics
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19-AUG-2019 :: It is not possible to Xinjiang Hong Kong, I think
Law & Politics
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Hong Kong protests latest:- Tensions escalate in 12th week- Gun fired and water cannon used for first time- China sends warning on troop deployment @next_china
Law & Politics
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International Markets
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"In a multi-polar world, you need a multi-polar currency," he told @CNBC's Steve Liesman
International Trade
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Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the world’s reliance on the
U.S. dollar as a reserve currency is too risky and proposed a new
digital currency to replace it.
“In a multi-polar world, you need a multi-polar currency,” he told
CNBC’s Steve Liesman at the Federal Reserve’s annual conference in
Jackson Hole, Wyo.
Carney said a new digital currency based on a global basket of goods
would provide equilibrium to a system where some countries have moved
to zero or negative interest rates, while others, including the U.S.,
remain positive.
“The question is how do you get there,” he said. “You don’t just jump
to something new over night.”
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08-APR-2019 :: Threats by any nation to undermine the petrodollar system are viewed by Washington as tantamount to a declaration of war against USA.
International Trade
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In 21st century geopolitics, this is the "grand daddy" of all geopolitical red lines 08-APR-2019 ::
International Trade
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President @realDonaldTrump and Prime Minister @BorisJohnson catching up with each other tonight in France! #G7Biarritz @Scavino45 #G7Summit
International Trade
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"It's economic narcissism. It's economic policy by whim, pride, ego and tantrum." @Newsweek
International Trade
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@TonyFratto told the Post: "This administration has not done itself a whole lot of favors in talking about the economy'' @Newsweek
International Trade
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"We're in that bizarro world where you can be a currency manipulator if you fail to manipulate your currency" tweeted @TonyFratto
International Trade
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"Voodoo Economics"
International Trade
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1116
Dollar Index 97.879
Japan Yen 105.70
Swiss Franc 0.9744
Pound 1.2247
Aussie 0.6748
India Rupee 72.185
South Korea Won 1218.205
Brazil Real 4.1221
Egypt Pound 16.545
South Africa Rand 15.3338
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$DXY US Dollar 5-Day Chart: @FXPIPTITAN 97.879
World Currencies
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EURUSD Weekly: Still in the infinity wedge @Simple_Trends 1.1116 [TRADES A LITTLE LIKE THE YEN]
World Currencies
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Still think this resolves lower and next meaningful level is that gap
fill. Should bounce there before going even lower.
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Japanese #yen < 105 v the #USD as risk-off sentiment grows. #JPY @jsblokland 105.70
World Currencies
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Commodities
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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The Triple Peak In Gold. @wstpacglenn 1529.00
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 54.10
Commodities
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Emerging Markets
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JPM EM FX Index trades at record low of 60.27 @sunchartist
Emerging Markets
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19-AUG-2019 :: Emerging and Frontier Markets look in big trouble this time around.
Emerging Markets
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05-AUG-2019 :: the middle of the night when Gremlins and Goblins stalk the FX markets
Emerging Markets
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lira plunged to a low of 16.1485 against the yen, before paring most of its slide. It traded down 1.3% at 18.0680 as of 3:18 p.m. in Tokyo.
Emerging Markets
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The early slide was also echoed in other currency pairs, with the lira
dropping as much as 9.9% against the dollar.
Frontier Markets
Sub Saharan Africa
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Sudan PM Says Country Needs $8 Billion in Aid: @AlArabiya_Eng @markets
Africa
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Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said the country requires $8
billion in foreign aid for the next two years to cover its import
bills and regain trust in its currency, Al Arabiya Television
reported.
Hamdok said Sudan will need $2 billion in foreign deposits to stop the
African nation’s pound from falling further. The prime minister said
Sudan has started negotiations seeking to have the U.S. remove the
country from its terrorism-sponsor list, according to Al Arabiya.
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29-JUL-2019 :: The "Oudh" Spring in Khartoum
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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating.
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The ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating. As I
watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new
normal.
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10-JUN-2019 :: Hugh Masekela said "I want to be there when the people start to turn it around." Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.
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The U.S. Export-Import Bank said on Thursday its board intends to vote on a $5 billion direct loan for the development of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Mozambique @ReutersAfrica
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Qatar Plans to Build New Port in Central Somalia Town of Hobyo @business
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06-AUG-2018 :: The Indian Ocean Economy and a Port Race
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the Gulf Countries [who now appear to see the Horn of Africa as their
hinter- land], Japan and India [to a lesser degree] are all jostling
for optimal ‘’geo-economic’’ positioning.
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Zambia's got an inverted yield curve too. No negative yields though -- the 2024 local currency debt it sold today yields 32%. @mattstephenhil
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Zimbabwe's finance minister has blacked out inflation figures, but a calculation shows that it is 230% @Economics
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Economist's Calculation Shows Zimbabwe's Inflation Is 230% @economics
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Zimbabwe’s official annual inflation rate was 230% in July, according
to John Robertson, an economist based in Harare, but the nation’s
statistics office won’t tell you that. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube
said earlier this month that the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency
won’t report year-on-year inflation figures until February 2020 and
will only release the monthly moves in the consumer-price index. Less
than three years after Zimbabwe had deflation, the economy may be
heading back to the hyperinflation of a decade ago after the
introduction of a new currency pushed up prices and led to shortages
of goods from bread to fuel.
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29-JUL-2019 :: Zimbabwe is a Laboratory Experiment with Inflation last clocking 176%.
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There is a straw and camels back moment but predicting that moment is always a Fools Errand.
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Shamva road #Zimbabwe
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21-JAN-2019 :: What is clear to me is that Zimbabwe is at a Tipping Point moment.
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21-JAN-2019 :: The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions, Zimbabwe is a classic example
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Interviewer: "What's the price of a loaf of bread?" Minister of Finance "It is whatever it is, so?" Interviewer: "It's $6.50, ok" @Wamagaisa
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08-OCT-2018 : The Government's "Voodoo Economics" where it spent $1.3b pump-priming the economy ahead of the election [money it did not have] was the straw that broke the camel's back.
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.39% 2019
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO
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Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +10.01% 2019 16.545
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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -11.55% 2019
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Investors Say No Thanks to Ghana Debt Offering Yield Above 20% @economics
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In a world awash with negative yields, Ghana offered debt returning
more than 20% -- and investors weren’t interested.
The West African nation sold 162.1 million cedis ($30 million) of
20-year bonds Thursday with a yield of 20.2%, well short of its target
of raising 450 million cedis, as investors balked at the term and
currency risk.
“The duration is too long for the level of investor confidence in the
economy,” Anthony Asare, the Accra-based head of treasury at GCB Bank
Ltd., the nation’s biggest lender and a primary dealer in government
debt, said by phone.
“People are not very certain over that length of time.”
Ghana, which completed a four-year International Monetary Fund program
in April, raised its fiscal deficit projection for the year to 4.5% of
gross domestic product from 4.2% in a mid-year review of the budget.
Inflation quickened to 9.4% in the year through July as the cedi
declined about 10% against the dollar. The Ministry of Finance warned
earlier this month that the country is at “high risk” of debt
distress.
“The yield pick up is not sufficient to compensate for the risk,” Mark
Bohlund, an Africa economist at Bloomberg Economics, said in an
emailed response to questions.
“If you’re a foreign investor then you not only care about the yield
on the bond but also at what exchange rate you can repatriate your
money.”
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19-AUG-2019 :: Emerging and Frontier Markets look in big trouble this time around.
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Now the last time G7 Economies went full on ‘’zombie’’ the liquidity
surge washed up just about everywhere in every corner of the World.
It was characterised as the Global Hunt for Yield.
Now when safe Haven Demand turns parabolic, Investors are signalling
they are not interested in the return but only in getting their
Principal back. Emerging and Frontier Markets look in big trouble this
time around.
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -9.18% 2019
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Kenya
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@StanChartKE reports H1 2019 EPS +5.486% Earnings here
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Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 194.50
Total Shares Issued: 343510571.00
Market Capitalization: 66,812,806,060
EPS: 23.09
PE: 8.424
Standard Chartered Bank Kenya H1 2019 results through 30th June 2019
vs. 30th June 2018
H1 Kenya government securities – available for sale 98.008575b vs.
116.136514b -15.609%
H1 Loans and advances to customers (net) 120.064909b vs. 111.748653b +7.442%
H1 Total assets 294.542970b vs. 295.955246b -0.477%
H1 Customer deposits 228.499892b vs. 230.845308b-1.016%
H1 Total shareholders’ equity 46.873705b vs. 44.641514b+5.000%
H1 Total interest income 12.732332b vs. 13.741748b-7.346%
H1 Customer deposits interest expense [2.602577b] vs. [3.358699b] -22.512%
H1 Total interest expenses [2.886305b] vs. [3.898873b] -25.971%
H1 Net interest income 9.846027b vs. 9.842875b +0.032%
H1 Other fees and commissions 2.410907b vs. 2.821839b -14.563%
H1 Total operating income 14.559215b vs. 14.663490b -0.711%
H1 Loan loss provision [378.942m] vs. [1.266286b] -70.075%
H1 Total other operating expenses [7.638944b] vs. [8.092601b] -5.606%
H1 Profit before tax and exceptional items 6.920271b vs. 6.570889b +5.317%
H1 Profit after tax and exceptional items 4.705902b vs. 4.466719b +5.355%
EPS 13.46 vs. 12.76 +5.486%
Dividend per share 5.00 vs. 5.00 –
Net NPL and advances 12.642305b vs. 11.727030b +7.805%
Liquidity ratio 67.23% vs. 71.31% +4.080%
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Our H1 performance summarized. #AnalystBriefingSC @StanChartKE
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@FlameTreeGroup reports H1 EPS 2019 -77.273% Earnings here
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Par Value:
Closing Price: 2.80
Total Shares Issued: 161866804.00
Market Capitalization: 453,227,051
EPS: 0.19
PE: 14.737
Flame Tree Group HY 2019 results through 30th June2019 vs. 30th June 2018
HY Revenue 1.254949910bvs.1.265671964b -0.847%
HY Cost of sales [856.151845m] vs. [861.833396m] -0.659%
HY Gross profit [398.798065m] vs. [403.838568m] -1.248%
HY Other operating income 2.834978m vs. 4.894212m -42.075%
HY Selling and distribution costs [207.681819m] vs. [182.639627m] +13.711%
HY Administrative expenses [115.658006m] vs. [116.695930m] -0.889%
HY Other operating expenses [32.688054m] vs. [19.933230m] +63.988%
HY Operating profit after gain on disposal of Property, Plant and
Equipment 45.605164m vs. 89.463993m -49.024%
HY Finance Costs [36.011003m] vs. [34.613987m] +4.036%
HY Profit before tax 9.594161m vs. 54.850006m -82.508%
HY Profit for the period 9.594161m vs. 39.917062m -75.965%
EPS 0.05 vs. 0.22 -77.273%
Shareholders’ Funds 1.352430754b vs. 853.683622m +58.423%
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period [106.691055m] vs.
[189.814676m]-43.792%
PRESS RELEASE
H1 2019 reported revenue Kes 1,255M
Gross Profit reached 399M, with gross margin at 32%
EBITDA was 68.9M, 5.5% over sales and a decrease of -39% vs. LY
23rd August 2019, Nairobi – Flame TREE Group Holdings (FTGH: NSE) the
diversified manufacturer and distributor of plastic tanks, cosmetics,
snacks, spices and playground equipment is pleased to announce its
financial performance for HY2019.
The group reported revenue in H1 2019 of Kes 1,255M and gross profit
reached 399M, with gross margin at 32% all in line with previous year.
By Business line
Plastics: Sales in plastics was up by +13%, reporting a Gross Profit
of 293.5 MM (+8% vs. LY), showing a slight reduction in margin by 1.4
p.p. which is mainly due to the negative impact of the business
situation in Ethiopia and Mozambique. The division also posted a sharp
increase in Selling & Distribution costs (+27% and +30MM vs. LY),
mainly linked to transport costs and sales teams.
Snacks: Sales was down -15% vs. LY. Total Gross Profit was also down
to 16MM (-32% vs. LY) caused by the drought experienced in the country
resulting in scarcity of potatoes and price increases. This affected
both production and margins.
Cosmetics: Reported a positive growth in sales +11% vs. LY. Despite
the higher cost of sales due to 16MM paid in demurrage charges, gross
profit moved up by 9% vs. LY. Margin for last 2 months improved and
was above 30%. The division also reported an increase in distribution
expenses and higher cost of transport. EBT remained the same level as
LY, and EBITDA improved 4%. We have undertaken strong investments in
marketing with advertising campaigns in mainstream and online media
platforms, we have opened a new SuzieBeauty store in Sarit Center and
launched a new product range in ZOE lotions which will have a positive
impact on revenue in the second half of the year.
Highlights H1
The group has made significant improvements in production, staff &
logistics and marketing:
Inauguration of new factory in Ethiopia, now fully operative.
New store of Suzie Beauty in Sarit Center.
Distribution of cosmetics in Mozambique and considerable increase in
exports to Rwanda.
Several new machines: blancher and oil filter in Chirag, PET machine &
compressor and second injection moulding machine in Jojo, new HDPE
pipe machine in Rwanda to meet demand of projects in agriculture,
homogenizer machine in Flame Tree Africa.
Additional investment in 9 trucks to reduce logistic costs in Kenya
• New media promotion with Bahati as Brand Ambassador for ZOE Men’s
range, several promos and marketing actions like launch of 5 new
products on the Churchill Show - Laugh Festival including our Zoe
fragrance lotions & Men’s Shampoo, merchandising actions and focus on
product value.
• Launch of new Chigs Corn Crunch range in the snacks line.
• Revaluation of assets made by an independent company brought 216,2
million KES of additional value to the Trial Balance.
According to Mr. Heril Bangera, CEO Flame Tree Group, “We have seen a
very positive trend in the last 2 months both in sales and margin.
Traditionally the second half of the year shows better performance
than H1, and we are still targeting to push for final net growth in
Sales and Profit vs LY.”
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.20
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.72% 2019
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -12.57% 2019
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Tala, a California-based FinTech company with operations in Kenya, has raised USD 110.0 mn in a Series D financing round led by RPS Ventures, a California based venture capital firm @CytonnInvest
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February 2018 Eurobond issue, yields on both the 10-year Eurobond and the 30-year Eurobond dropped by 0.2% points to 6.7% and 8.0%, from 6.9% and 8.2% @CytonnInvest
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For the newly issued dual-tranche Eurobond with 7-years and 12-years tenor yields on both the 7-year bond and the 12-year bond dropped by 0.3% points to 6.1% and 7.2% from 6.4% and 7.5% recorded the previous week @CytonnInvest
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NSE is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.3x and a dividend yield of 5.3%@CytonnInvest
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
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