The Bank of England (BoE) is said to be considering a move into negative interest rates, the Telegraph newspaper reported late on Wednesday, without citing any sources, ahead of the central bank’s November monetary policy decision on Thursday.

The BoE is in the midst of a review of how negative interest rates would work in Britain if necessary. It is still talking to banks about their preparedness.

None of the economists polled by Reuters expect an imminent move into negative rates. 

They expect the BoE to expand its asset purchase programme by 100 billion pounds to 845 billion pounds due to the deteriorating economic outlook as England enters a second COVID lockdown.

However, the Sun newspaper, citing unnamed sources, reported that the BoE is planning a much bigger programme of quantitative easing than the expected addition of 100 billion pounds.

The addition is likely to be around 150 billion pounds but it could also be as high as 200 billion pounds, the report added, without quoting sources.

Finance minister Rishi Sunak is also due to give an update on economic support measures related to the lockdown on Thursday.

According to the Telegraph report, Sunak is expected to confirm that furloughed workers will get 80% of their wages so long as their businesses are mandated to shut.

They are dreaming

BUT WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A RECOVERY OR WILL IT PRESAGE A SLUMP?

The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved #COVID19

Trump confounded the pollsters and the traditional media echo chamber and was ranked a rank outsider at 4-1 in a two horse race just a few short hours before the final result was known.

Retournement de situation spectaculaire vers 11h ce matin avec les résultats qui se resserrent (en faveur de Biden) dans le Wisconsin, le Michigan et en Pennsylvanie.

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

Not with a bang but a whimper.

With the way Wisconsin and Michigan look at present, 82% chance for Biden looks about right. But what a night, and what a week ahead:

―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.

A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.

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He commends the people and all electoral stakeholders, Political Parties and Candidates, the Media and Civil Society Organisations for the peaceful conduct of the elections.

Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.

We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? 

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

It still has the option of paying the coupon to avoid default, with its next coupon payment not due until January.

Creditors said the government had not contacted them ahead of launching the consent solicitation and had so far not presented a convincing plan to make its debt sustainable.

Trend 2: Africa’s transformative urban swell

In this report we continue our review of the five trends that we initially outlined almost a decade ago to be behind Africa’s enduring structural potential. Having recently published an update on Africa’s demographic (as well as institutional and income) potential (see here), we turn now to the advantages and risks inherent in the continent’s rapid urbanisation.

Quite clearly, Africa continues to urbanise at a rapid rate. Today it is estimated that 44% of Africa’s population is urbanised, up from 39% in 2010. 

This means that, since 2010, Africa’s total urban population has grown from 408m to 588m – a quite staggering 44% increase (and a rise of 180m people). 

This is by some margin the largest urban swell that Africa has experienced in any ten-year period in its history. 

Today, Africa has 63 cities with populations of over 1m people – up from 49 in 2010 and 30 in 2000.

Looking ahead, between 2020 and 2050 Africa’s urban population is expected to increase by around 800m people. This means that, by 2050, 22% of the world’s urban residents are expected to be based in Africa, up from 14% today. 

Also, by 2050 it is expected that 11 economies on the continent will have urbanisation rates of over 80%; and a further 20 economies will have urbanisation rates of between 60% and 80%.

A range of clear economic and institutional advantages emerge as a result of this trend. Indeed, and as we discuss in this report, a rising body of research has added weight to the suggestion that rapid urbanisation in Africa is delivering some meaningful economic and institutional gains. 

Recent survey data shows that urban residents in Africa have substantially lower levels of ‘lived poverty’ than rural residents, as well as greater access to cash income; food; and medical care. 

Also, around half of Africa’s urban residents have a bank account, compared to around one-fifth of rural residents. And 41% of urban households own a computer, compared to 13% of rural households.  

Further, urbanisation, in tandem with sweeping demographic changes, continues to support the deepening of political participation across the continent. 

Urban, youth-led protest has delivered profound political change across Africa over the past decade.

However, the risks presented by Africa’s rapid urban growth are as compelling as the opportunities. 

We discuss five of these deep impediments in this report: (1) chronic infrastructure weaknesses; (2) poor urban planning; (3) the mushrooming of urban slums; (4) climate risks; and (5) political and socio-economic instability. 

Many of these challenges have become more pronounced over the past decade as rates of urban growth across the continent have not been met by commensurate improvements in urban planning and infrastructure; as well as in the context of limitations in the creation of new work opportunities for the continent’s urban youth. 

Further some of the most rapid urban growth on the continent is taking place in a way that amplifies ecological harm, and in areas that are particularly prone to the kinds of natural disasters that are, as a result of climate change, far more prevalent than before.

In sum, few areas represent the complex blend of opportunity and risk facing African economies as potently as the continent’s rapid urbanisation. 

We know that Africa’s towns and cities will continue to grow at a rapid rate, but we also know that not all the continent’s economies will be able to handle this swell effectively. 

To be sure, managing this dual risk and opportunity will be one of the most pressing and complex challenges for Africa’s leaders and policymakers in the decades to come. 

As such, the ability of certain countries to harness the clear potential of their urban nodes will be a key institutional and economic differentiator, particularly when considering the fiscal limitations that will be imposed as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, and the fluidity of new risks emerging as a result of climate change.

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta suspended political rallies as part of measures to curb the coronavirus, after a surge in cases followed easing of restrictions in September.

The decision to suspend big political gatherings for 60 days comes as leaders jostle to mobilize supporters for a potential referendum next year, in which Kenya’s government could be restructured.

The East African nation has 58,587 confirmed coronavirus cases and 1,051 deaths as of Wednesday, according to the Health Ministry. Of these, about 15,000 new infections and 300 deaths were recorded in the past month alone.

“October has been recorded as the most tragic month in our fight against Covid,” Kenyatta said Wednesday in a televised address. “Now we are staring at a new wave of this pandemic.”

Kenya’s health managers have blamed the surge partly on politicians continuing to address crowded rallies without adhering to measure such as wearing of masks and social distancing.

Kenyatta also extended a nationwide curfew by an hour, to be observed from 10:00 p.m. to 4:00 a.m., while bars and restaurants are required to close by 9:00 p.m. The restrictions will be in place until Jan. 3.

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