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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 12th of November 2020
 

Macro Thoughts
World Of Finance



I think the Vaccine News has created a Head Fake level whipsaw move which will entirely reversed. 

Look at the Daily #COVID19 numbers they remain exponential and the Vaccine is not a near term Silver Bullet by any stretch of the imagination. 

So I see the recent move as a cascading stop hunting expeditionary force but popping equity markets on the basis that the World is now fixed and the sunlit uplands in front of us is quaalude level thinking 

The Virus exploited weaknesses which had been building since 2008 and these have not been resolved.

Therefore, recent market moving moves are in my opinion overdone overcooked and will be reversed. 

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On The Road
Africa

 



My Christmas holiday ritual is to jump into a car and take the family down to the Coast. The Nairobi-Mombasa road arrows ‘into immensities and is ‘impossible-to- believe.’ 

It retains a near mystical hold on my imagination and connects me to my childhood and beyond.


This time we were swarmed by doves near Emali which was breathtaking. There is still the eerie and deserted very Oscar Niemeyer building which might have been a petrol station with a restaurant. 

We stopped at Makindu which is like being teleported to Amritsar and on New Years day was packed to the rafters.

We always stop at Mackinnon road where there is a shrine which houses the tomb of Seyyid Baghali, a Punjabi foreman at the time of the building of the railway who was renowned for his strength. 





 

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09-NOV-2020 :: The Spinning Top
Law & Politics






The World has spun at dizzying speed in 2020 and is bookended with the Decapitation of Qasem Soleimani and then the Political decapitation of President Trump by the [not so] ''Sleepy'' Joe Biden and who exits stage left twittering into the wilderness or is it Trump TV?

The demise of the Reality TV Star turned seriously vaudeville with Mr. Giulani mounting the last stand from the Four Seasons Total Landscaping next to Fantasy Island Adult Books across the street from the Delaware Valley Cremation Center.

Some Folks seem convinced that the Prophet of Populism Donald J. Trump is going to lead his 70m Disciples into some major 5th generational chess moves but surely just as likely is an Unfolding psychological breakdown played out in front of our eyes on TV like Willy Loman in Arthur Miller's Death of Salesman

“You can't eat the orange and throw the peel away - a man is not a piece of fruit.”

“If personal meaning, in this cheer leader society, lies in success, then failure must threaten identity itself.”

I’m tired to the death. The flute has faded away. He sits on the bed beside her, a little numb. I couldn’t make it. I just couldn’t make it, Linda.

Counterintuitively, The Trump Vladislav Surkov Talking Points which of course always feature George Soros are strangely ineffective and a little like a receding tide.

Biden has stayed on Point and his pithiness has been the clearest Signal in the Noise. The American Electoral System has emerged unscathed and in fact looks robust.

“My take on Trump is that he is an inevitable creation of this unreal normal world,” Adam Curtis says. 

“Politics has become a pantomime or vaudeville in that it creates waves of anger rather than argument. Maybe people like Trump are successful simply because they fuel that anger, in the echo chambers of the internet.”


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'’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Misc.


There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released

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.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros
Law & Politics




“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”

According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”



However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”


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“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” ― Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Law & Politics



“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”

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US says @WHO China mission to probe coronavirus origin lacks transparency @SCMPNews
Law & Politics




A senior US government official has accused the World Health Organization (WHO) of not sharing enough information with its member states about the planned mission to China to investigate the animal origins of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Speaking via video link during a week-long meeting of the UN health agency’s member countries, Garrett Grisby from the US Department of Health and Human Services said on Tuesday the criteria for the mission had not been shared with other nations.

“The (terms of reference) were not negotiated in a transparent way with all WHO member states,” he said. “Understanding the origins of Covid-19 through a transparent and inclusive investigation is what must be done.”

In recent months, a long-planned WHO-led team investigation into the animal origins of the virus in China has stalled. 

Although pandemic travel restrictions and the focus on stemming the overwhelming number of new Covid-19 cases have complicated matters, some scientists worry that China has still not provided key details about what research is ongoing.


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09-NOV-2020 :: The Spinning Top
World Of Finance



It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site

The CCP appears to have modeled its lockdown fraud on Event 201, so Gates, Hopkins, and the WEF would play into their hands [@MichaelPSenger]

Forcing professionals into their homes forced them into the CCP’s controlled information environment. Isolating intelligent people in the digital realm allowed the CCP to control public opinion through its army of bots and stakes in most media sources. @MichaelPSenger

They now turn to rule over the people by means of what could be dubbed “big data totalitarianism” and “WeChat terror.” @ChinaFile #COVID19 Xu Zhangrun

Also 和谐 hexie over the eyes means "harmony" (from former Pres Hu catchphrase). In China if you've been censored you've been "harmonised".

That‘s right, we, We the People, for [as I have previously said] how can we let ourselves ―survive no better than swine; fawn upon the power-holders like curs; and live in vile filth like maggots?

you will all be no better than fields of garlic chives, giving yourselves up to being harvested by the blade of power, time and time again. @ChinaFile #COVID19

It’s no coincidence that “Zoom meetings” suddenly became the staple of professional work. Zoom is the CCP’s personal panopticon—the CCP can and does tune into Zoom calls anytime they want. What better way to monitor dissenting opinions.@MichaelPSenger 

The CCP’s financial ties with social media companies and nonprofits tasked with policing “misinformation” would facilitate the censorship necessary to prevent leaders from easing the public’s COVID hysteria. @MichaelPSenger 

The Infodemic as per the preeminent Exponent @DrTedros

“We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent,” said Tedros. Roger that. [Epsilon Theory]

There‟s just one problem.The “evidence” here – taken without adjustment or question from the CCP – was a baldfaced lie. And everyone at WHO knew it.Fake news is now defined as anything that disputes WHO data, which means that fake news is now defined as anything that disputes the official China party line.Where possible, China wants to criminalize any speech ... any social media ... that does not follow the official party line. 

Where it‟s not possible to criminalize that speech, China wants to ban it through the cooperative censorship of global tech and media platforms. 

#Coronavirus how the @WHO is leading the social media fight against misinformation @DrTedros @SCMPNews 


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THE VACCINE STORY IS ANOTHER MYTH
Misc.



No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud

What if, as I fear, there will never be a vaccine. I was involved in the early stages of identifying the HIV virus as the cause of Aids. I remember drugs companies back then saying there would be a vaccine within around 18 months. Some 37 years on, we are still waiting. Prof ANGUS DALGLEISH @MailOnline

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.1767

Dollar Index 93.106

Japan Yen 105.20

Swiss Franc 0.9166

Pound 1.3189

Aussie 0.7259

India Rupee 74.5266

South Korea Won 1114.34

Brazil Real 5.3923

Egypt Pound 15.645

South Africa Rand 15.7246

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Billionaire Margarita Louis-Dreyfus to sell a 45% stake to an Abu Dhabi fund, opening the family business to outside ownership for the first time and secure much-needed cash @bankelele
World Of Finance


Billionaire Margarita Louis-Dreyfus to sell a 45% stake to an Abu Dhabi fund, opening the family business to outside ownership for the first time and secure much-needed cash .. as governments are accelerating efforts to ensure they can feed their citizens.

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Bloom: Gauteng "There is evidence of a huge undercount of current infections." @geoffreyyork
Misc.


Good question asked by DA's Jack Bloom: why is Gauteng reporting only 1984 active COVID cases, while NICD records 1858 COVID patients in Gauteng hospitals? Hospitalization is normally 10-20% of active cases. Bloom: "There is evidence of a huge undercount of current infections."

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Ethiopia is about to cross the point of no return @mailandguardian By ⁦@RAbdiAnalyst & ⁦@writingpolitics
Africa



With the world’s attention fixated on the United States elections, Ethiopia embarked on a civil war last week. 

In a time span of five days Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the 2019 Nobel peace prize after making peace with Eritrea, ended the democratic transition that he had initiated two years before.

In the early hours of Wednesday last week, Abiy ordered federal troops to launch an offensive against the northern region of Tigray, which borders Eritrea and is home to about 6% of the population.

 Government airstrikes on military positions in Tigray and a telecommunication shutdown began the same day.

Since then, Abiy’s government has purged Tigrayan officials from government positions, mobilised ethnic militias to join the war and rejected international calls for dialogue with leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). 

On Saturday, Ethiopia’s parliament replaced Tigray’s elected leadership with a caretaker administration. 

On Sunday, the prime minister appointed some of his close allies as the new heads of national defence, intelligence and the federal police.

 Until recently, Abiy preached national unity and forgiveness. So why did he start a civil war? 

Abiy’s casus belli is an alleged raid on the headquarters of the Northern Command in Mekelle during which, it is claimed, arms were looted and scores killed. The truth is more complicated. 

First, the war preparations had been underway for weeks

Federal forces and allied troops from other federal states were in fact massed on the border between Tigray and Amhara as early as late October. 

Second, the officer corps of the Northern Command is predominantly Tigrayan and Oromo. The command has been in Mekelle for more than a decade. 

It had put down deep social roots and developed close ties with the TPLF. When Abiy issued the order for an offensive, the command rejected it and reaffirmed its loyalty to the elected leadership in Tigray. 

A brief firefight between loyalist and dissident troops ensued, which was quickly suppressed. 

The Oromo members of the command are believed to be predominantly supportive of the TPLF. 

Most are disenchanted with the prime minister’s arrest of Oromo leaders and the heavy-handed crackdown in Oromia.

Third, Tigray is estimated to hold the bulk of Ethiopia’s military hardware. 

The region has enough helicopter gunships, heavy field guns, tanks and armoured personnel carriers to mount a conventional war. 

The idea they would raid the command armoury and depots for weapons and ammunition is spurious, fantastical, even.

Abiy distrusts the professional national army. His relations with the rank and file are brittle. 

His stint in the army as a radioman in the signals corps and cyber-security department was brief and had not given him the depth and network needed to effectively influence it. 

This partly explains why he is increasingly reliant on ethnic forces drawn from other regional states to prosecute the campaign in Tigray. 

So far, the bulk of the federal fighting force is drawn from a plethora of ethnic armies from the regional states. 

They include Amhara State special forces and liyu paramilitary police from Oromia.

By outsourcing the war to ethnic units — some with axes to grind against Tigrayans — Abiy is playing a dangerous game almost certain to aggravate the conflict and transforming, potentially, what is a centre-periphery contest into a wider ethnic conflagration.

Both the Tigray leadership and the federal government deserve blame for the current crisis, but it is important to understand the wider context.

The speed at which Abiy evolved from political reformer to war prime minister has astonished his friends and foes alike

When he came to power amid popular unrest in March 2018, Abiy gained overwhelming acclaim as a reformer. 

He released prisoners, welcomed back the opposition and promised to open up the economy. 

Yet political liberalisation backfired as pent-up ethnic tensions spiralled out of control, destabilising a nation that has long been considered an anchor of stability in the Horn of Africa region. 

“Abiymania” dissipated rapidly when it became clear that the new federal leadership was unable to manage these conflicts. 

Abiy faced serious political opposition from the outgoing TPLF guard, which had dominated the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front for decades.

 After he broke with his former colleagues of the Oromo Democratic Party, Abiy faced increasing criticism from Oromo nationalists. 

They accused him of selling out the Oromo cause; he had many of them arrested in return. 

Repositioning himself as an Ethiopian nationalist who transcends ethnic cleavages, Abiy created the multi-ethnic, but unitary Prosperity Party that controls all levers of power.

Ethiopia has taken a fatal step towards a full-blown civil war. Armed clashes are now raging on multiple battle fronts. Hundreds of soldiers have died on both sides in less than a week.

Expectations of a swift and clean victory are misplaced. The most likely outcome is a messy and grinding stalemate; and, worse, a protracted insurgency for which TPLF is well-suited. 

A prolonged conflict is bound to have dire implications. It elevates the prospect of a regionalised and multi-ethnic conflict, risks reversing the economic and development gains made in the past 20 years, and is almost certain to trigger large-scale displacement. 

Most crucially, it diminishes prospects for furthering democratisation and reduces the chances for credible elections in 2021.

The window for international intervention and mediation is closing very fast. 

Without a quick, robust and concerted international response to stop the fighting, Ethiopia runs the real risk of crossing the point of no return. 

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Sudan braces for up to 200,000 fleeing Ethiopia fighting @AP
Africa



Up to 200,000 refugees could pour into Sudan while fleeing the deadly conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, officials say, while the first details are emerging of largely cut-off civilians under growing strain. 

Already at least 6,000 people have crossed the border.

Long lines have appeared outside bread shops in the Tigray region, and supply-laden trucks are stranded at its borders, the United Nations humanitarian chief in the country told The Associated Press in an interview.

Communications remain almost completely severed with the Tigray region a week after Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a military offensive in response to an alleged attack by regional forces. 

He insists there will be no negotiations with a regional government he considers illegal until its ruling “clique” is arrested and its well-stocked arsenal is destroyed.


With airports in Tigray closed, roads blocked, internet service cut off and even banks no longer operating, it “makes our life very difficult in terms of ensuring almost 2 million people receive humanitarian assistance,” Sajid said.

There is no sign of a lull in the fighting that has included multiple airstrikes by federal forces and hundreds of people reported dead on each side.

“It looks like, unfortunately, this may not be something which can be resolved by any party in a week or two,” Sajid said. 

“It looks like it’s going to be a protracted conflict, which is a huge concern from the point of view of protection of civilians.”


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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province. The Spinning Top
Africa





Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.



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Turning to Africa The Spinning Top
Africa


So far Africa has dodged the Virus from a medical perspective though it remains in my view a slow burning Fuse and we all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'

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Morocco 4,436 avg #COVID19 cases per day up 33% past two weeks. Algeria avg cases per day up 93% past 2wks. @jmlukens
Africa



COVID-19 avg Daily Case Increase #Algeria: 93% #Botswana: 75% #Uganda: 74% #Ghana: 71% #Kenya: 62% #Nigeria: 51% #Morocco: 33% #Libya: 5% #Angola: 4%

The real challenge is the Economic Emergency.

The latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa projects economic activity in the region to decline by 3.0% in 2020 and recover by 3.1% in 2021. @IMFNews

The IMF is so bright eyed and bushy tailed and I want some of whatever Pills they are popping.

   

Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator


Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

The Event is no longer over the Horizon.

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KCB Group Plc after-tax profits for the 9 months ending Sept 2020 stood at KShs 10.9B, a 43% drop from KShs 19.2B recorded last year. @KCBGroup
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Performance was largely impacted by increased provision on loans & advances due to increased risk of credit default associated with the pandemic

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The Group’s balance sheet expanded 27% to KShs.972 billion, funded by customer deposits growth and acquisition of @National_Bank @@KCBGroup
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Net loans & advances grew 19% to close the period at KShs. 577.5 billion while customer deposits were up 32% to KShs. 772.7 billion.

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This remains a business optimally positioned to ride the New Post COVID19 normal. @SafaricomPLC share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services



Conclusions

I think the MPESA decline is a Blip because we are witnesssing a spectacular and even viral level acceleration with regard to Mobile Money obviously COVID19 related.

Data performed in line with the new COVID curve.

This remains a business optimally positioned to ride the New Post COVID19 normal.

Customer gain of +10.2% confirms the advantage of the Demographic dividend.

This is a resilient and muscular business wich has navigated the COVID19 circuit breaker and is a Buy on any reverse.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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