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Friday 13th of November 2020
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Macro Thoughts
World Of Finance
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I think the Vaccine News has created a Head Fake level whipsaw move which will entirely reversed.
Look at the Daily #COVID19 numbers they remain exponential and the Vaccine is not a near term Silver Bullet by any stretch of the imagination.
So I see the recent move as a cascading stop hunting expeditionary force but popping equity markets on the basis that the World is now fixed and the sunlit uplands in front of us is quaalude level thinking
The Virus exploited weaknesses which had been building since 2008 and these have not been resolved.
Therefore, recent market moving moves are in my opinion overdone overcooked and will be reversed.
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19-OCT-2020 :: ALL G7 CURVES 0-10 WILL BE NEGATIVE IN 2021
World Of Finance
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US Bonds @TommyThornton
World Of Finance
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Let's steal a metaphoric mile. Present monetary policy is ludicrous. The Fed has inverted the yield curve - zero spot rates are greater than those further out in the curve. @hendry_hugh
World Of Finance
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It's as though the Fed wants to slow the US economy! Dadaism perhaps?
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If I were running the Fed, first stop would be -100 bps Fed Funds @hendry_hugh
World Of Finance
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If I were running the Fed, first stop would be -100 bps Fed Funds with a declaration that seeing as I am the bank regulator of the US that I insist that deposits of $100k or more should automatically incur the new policy rate. Heck you get deposit insurance for free!
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Here's my alchemy formula. You take real $ rates, -100bps and you multiply by total debt-to-GDP, 450pc, and you get a negative real cost of debt at the macro level of -4.5pc of GDP, a trillion bucks. @hendry_hugh
World Of Finance
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Negative rates are the next major gold discovery. And if you are sitting there befuddled. Buy eurodollar futures. Buy lots of them. Assuming you already own gold. @hendry_hugh
World Of Finance
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The absurdity of it all brought us Trump and Brexit. Let's learn the lesson second time around. Negative rates are the next major gold discovery. And if you are sitting there befuddled. Buy eurodollar futures. Buy lots of them. Assuming you already own gold.
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The virus is not correlated to endogenous market dynamics but is an an exogenous uncertainty that remains unresolved #COVID19
World Of Finance
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What’s certain is that the whole global economy has been hit by an insidious, literally invisible circuit breaker. @asiatimesonline #COVID19
World Of Finance
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Wild White Flowers Tsavo East
Africa
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''You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”
Africa
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A room with a view! Chyulu Hills National Park. Video by Alex Hunter @kenyapics
Africa
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Geyser meets the Milky Way at Yellowstone National Park @AntonioParis
Africa
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Tsavo sunset is our favourite colour, what's yours? @finchhattons
Africa
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"Time is a flat circle. Everything we have done or will do we will do over and over and over again- forever." True Detective The Spinning Top
Africa
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Early morning commute to here. For business. In case you wondered where all the people are, they're all dead. @London_W4
Misc.
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Don DeLillo wrote "Everything is barely weeks. Everything is days. We have minutes to live." The Way we live now #COVID19
Misc.
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Ready to depart. Paddington Station. @London_W4
Misc.
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Riz Ahmed @rizwanahmed Finds the Beat Between Qawwali and House Music
Misc.
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“As someone who plays a lot with words — spoken word and poetry and other stuff — it really forced me to step out of my comfort zone,” Ahmed said of “Sound of Metal,” which premieres in theaters Nov. 20 and on Amazon Prime Video Dec. 4. “I think it opened me up physically in subtle but also quite profound ways.”
Mathieu Kassovitz’s “La Haine”
It’s a film that I stumbled across when I was a teenager. It was showing late night, a subtitled black-and-white movie.
Normally I would have changed the channel. But it was so stylish in how it was shot and edited, and these characters that would jump bursting out of the screen were characters that I felt I recognized.
It opened me up to a different kind of cinema.
I feel like it’s a timeless movie, sadly. It’s about riots in the wake of a police-brutality killing in Paris, and it’s something that resonates today.
It’s a story of adolescent malaise and marginalization and what that combination can do. But it’s also a hilarious film. It’s a very youthful film. It gives me an indescribable feeling.
2. Short stories by Saadat Hasan Manto
He was a master of the dark satirical short story. He was put on trial for indecency, purely because he chose to portray lives that were not considered worthy of being portrayed.
I’ve never been able to sit still for very long, so I’ve always had a tormented relationship with reading. Some of his stories are under a page, but they cut so deep.
I pay homage to this in a short film called “Daytimer.” A big part of this culture was daytime raves, because South Asian girls with strict conservative families weren’t allowed out at night. So we would do all of our parties in the daytime. And you could go and then put back your school uniform, and no one would know any better.
5. Aziz Mian’s “Main Sharabi”
Aziz Mian was a qawwali singer. And qawwali is a genre that I’ve been increasingly taking an interest in as I think about how I can pull from my own cultural heritage and contribute to hip-hop, which I’m so cognizant is a Black art form.
Qawwali is an amazing template to create within authentically, in that it’s a mixture of a kind of rap and spoken word and singing. It’s a Sufi tradition of gospel jazz. It’s improvised and quite punk, but it’s also quite devotional.
U.K. Apache’s “Original Nuttah” is a great primer into what jungle music is. You’ve got a British-Iraqi guy who has named himself Apache Indian, rapping in a mixture of cockney slang and Jamaican patois.
I grew up speaking Jamaican slang. I was 20 before I understood they were Jamaican words.
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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In China, people are calling Trump a 钉子户 dingzi hu, (“the nail that can’t be pulled out”) @eosnos
Law & Politics
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“You can't eat the orange and throw the peel away - a man is not a piece of fruit.” The Spinning Top
World Of Finance
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The World has spun at dizzying speed in 2020 and is bookended with the Decapitation of Qasem Soleimani and then the Political decapitation of President Trump by the [not so] ''Sleepy'' Joe Biden and who exits stage left twittering into the wilderness or is it Trump TV?
The demise of the Reality TV Star turned seriously vaudeville with Mr. Giulani mounting the last stand from the Four Seasons Total Landscaping next to Fantasy Island Adult Books across the street from the Delaware Valley Cremation Center.
Some Folks seem convinced that the Prophet of Populism Donald J. Trump is going to lead his 70m Disciples into some major 5th generational chess moves but surely just as likely is an Unfolding psychological breakdown played out in front of our eyes on TV like Willy Loman in Arthur Miller's Death of Salesman
“You can't eat the orange and throw the peel away - a man is not a piece of fruit.”
“If personal meaning, in this cheer leader society, lies in success, then failure must threaten identity itself.”
I’m tired to the death. The flute has faded away. He sits on the bed beside her, a little numb. I couldn’t make it. I just couldn’t make it, Linda.
Counterintuitively, The Trump Vladislav Surkov Talking Points which of course always feature George Soros are strangely ineffective and a little like a receding tide.
Biden has stayed on Point and his pithiness has been the clearest Signal in the Noise. The American Electoral System has emerged unscathed and in fact looks robust.
“My take on Trump is that he is an inevitable creation of this unreal normal world,” Adam Curtis says.
“Politics has become a pantomime or vaudeville in that it creates waves of anger rather than argument. Maybe people like Trump are successful simply because they fuel that anger, in the echo chambers of the internet.”
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At this point, Trump’s White House has a late April 1945 bunker feel. @CarlMinzner
Law & Politics
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Complete with his ranting in the face of subordinates unwilling to tell him the truth, but who are privately trying to plot their exit from the capital.
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The Navajo Nation flipped AZ. They cast 76K votes, at 97% for Biden. He is currently ahead by 16,985 votes. Some of them spent 2 hours on horseback getting to the polls. @AnnAnnChe
Misc.
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PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS TOLD FRIENDS HE WANTS TO START A DIGITAL MEDIA COMPANY TO CLOBBER FOX NEWS AND UNDERMINE THE CONSERVATIVE-FRIENDLY NETWORK, SOURCES TELL AXIOS @FirstSquawk
Law & Politics
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World total 52,119,028 #COVID19 cases exponentially growing 1.14% per day. 666,898 new cases and 12,129 new deaths yesterday most to date. @jmlukens
Misc.
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World total 52,119,028 #COVID19 cases exponentially growing 1.14% per day. 1,284,202 total deaths exponentially growing 0.94% per day and accelerating. 666,898 new cases and 12,129 new deaths yesterday most to date.
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Misc.
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From first case reported in US, took 96 days to reach 1 million. Then @DrTomFrieden
Misc.
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1 to 2 million-44 days
2 to 3 million-27 days
3 to 4 million-15 days
4 to 5 million-17 days
5 to 6 million-22 days
6 to 7 million-25 days
7 to 8 million-21 days
8 to 9 million-14 days
9 to 10 million-10 days
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24-FEB-2020 :: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Misc.
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10. November 11: + 666 957 cases in 24 hours #COVID19 Daily Confirmed cases of COVID-19 @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.
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Malcolm Gladwell „‟Tipping Point‟‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards. #nCoV2019
Misc.
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Case growth rate is defined as Daily Cases / Total Cases. On January 28 in 1st wave a 47.5% peak case growth rate was observed. March 21 growth rate was 13.1%. July 1 it was 2.04%. Yesterday case growth rate was 1.28%. @jmlukens
Misc.
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The majority of infections happen in a small number of places. “Restaurants were by far the riskiest places, about four times riskier than gyms and coffee shops, followed by hotels” @MaxCRoser
Misc.
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Year of the Virus
World Of Finance
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A virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”.
Misc.
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19-OCT-2020 :: Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent [and its not even Winter]
World Of Finance
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19-OCT-2020 :: Whether it is in the First, second, third or fourth wave is an academic Question.
Misc.
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The biggest and most expensive military in the world means nothing to a virus. #COVID19 @thecontinent_ @Nanjala1
Misc.
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The virus may be the most dangerous adversary America has ever faced. It's like the US was invaded. Tweeted @balajis #COVID19
Misc.
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@DrTedros characterises #COVID19 as a pandemic @WHO ten minutes past midnight
Misc.
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"We relied too much on the WHO for the COVID-19 pandemic,” Peter Liese, a top EU lawmaker from German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, said
Law & Politics
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''Under pressure from China, the WHO declared the health emergency too late."
The European Commission on Wednesday proposed rules which would give the EU the power to declare a health emergency and stress test national plans to tackle pandemics, in a potential blow to the World Health Organization.
It also comes after the WHO was criticised for having declared the pandemic, which first emerged in China at the end of last year, too late. The U.N. agency has repeatedly denied the accusation.
Under the proposals, the EU would be able to declare an EU-level public health emergency, which would in turn trigger more coordination among EU states.
Currently, the EU relies on the WHO to declare such an emergency.
“The new rules will enable the activation of EU emergency response mechanisms (..) without making it contingent upon the WHO’s own declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern,” an EU document says, adding that such a move would be coordinated with the WHO.
“We relied too much on the WHO for the COVID-19 pandemic,” Peter Liese, a top EU lawmaker from German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, said.
“Under pressure from China, the WHO declared the health emergency too late. It is therefore very important to have the possibility to act at European level in future similar situations.”
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24-FEB-2020 :: @WHO is captured. And millions of lives will have been trifled with #COVID19 the Game is Up.
Misc.
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.@Presa_Diretta on SARS2 origins doesn't pull any punches. English subtitled, undubbed interviews of many top experts on the question: Could SARS-CoV-2 have emerged from a lab? H/T @Ayjchan
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'’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Misc.
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There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released
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.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros
Law & Politics
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“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”
According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”
However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
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“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” ― Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.
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“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”
“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”
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Questions concerning the proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2
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"The furin recognition motif present at the SARS-CoV2 S1/S2 junction has no analogy in other "linage B" beta-coronaviruses, including neither pangolin-CoV nor RaTG13" H/T @schnufi666
Misc.
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It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site
Misc.
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Did Top Medical Journal Help Cover Up Origins of SARS-CoV-2?
Law & Politics
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Summary
According to Alina Chan, a molecular biologist at the Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT, SARS-CoV-2 did not evolve in a manner you’d expect, had it jumped from an animal to a human. It sprang into action fully evolved for human transmission
It appears Nature, a top medical journal, has allowed authors to secretly alter data sets in their papers without publishing notices of correction
Chan’s investigation reveals authors have renamed samples, failed to attribute them properly, and produced a genomic profile that doesn’t match the samples in their paper. Others are missing data
RaTG13 — the coronavirus that most resembles SARS-CoV-2, being 96% identical — is actually btCoV-4991, a virus found in samples collected in 2013 and published in 2016
If SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19 and the subsequent response to it, came from a lab, then we need to reassess the future of gain-of-function research that allows for the weaponization of viruses
Does the origin of SARS-CoV-2 matter? Yes, it does. The reason it matters is because if the virus responsible for COVID and the subsequent response to it came from a lab, then we need to reassess the future of so-called gain-of-function research that allows for the weaponization of viruses.
As you might expect, there’s big money involved in this kind of research, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that vested interests would try to cover up its origin, were it indeed a lab creation, simply to protect their funding and future careers.
What’s surprising, however, is the finding that a top medical journal appears to have aided and abetted efforts to hide SARS-CoV-2’s origin.
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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics
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09-NOV-2020 :: The Spinning Top
Law & Politics
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It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site
The CCP appears to have modeled its lockdown fraud on Event 201, so Gates, Hopkins, and the WEF would play into their hands [@MichaelPSenger]
Forcing professionals into their homes forced them into the CCP’s controlled information environment. Isolating intelligent people in the digital realm allowed the CCP to control public opinion through its army of bots and stakes in most media sources. @MichaelPSengerThey now turn to rule over the people by means of what could be dubbed “big data totalitarianism” and “WeChat terror.” @ChinaFile #COVID19 Xu Zhangrun
Also 和谐 hexie over the eyes means "harmony" (from former Pres Hu catchphrase). In China if you've been censored you've been "harmonised".
That‘s right, we, We the People, for [as I have previously said] how can we let ourselves ―survive no better than swine; fawn upon the power-holders like curs; and live in vile filth like maggots?
you will all be no better than fields of garlic chives, giving yourselves up to being harvested by the blade of power, time and time again. @ChinaFile #COVID19
It’s no coincidence that “Zoom meetings” suddenly became the staple of professional work. Zoom is the CCP’s personal panopticon—the CCP can and does tune into Zoom calls anytime they want. What better way to monitor dissenting opinions.@MichaelPSenger
The CCP’s financial ties with social media companies and nonprofits tasked with policing “misinformation” would facilitate the censorship necessary to prevent leaders from easing the public’s COVID hysteria. @MichaelPSenger
The Infodemic as per the preeminent Exponent @DrTedros
“We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent,” said Tedros. Roger that. [Epsilon Theory]
There‟s just one problem.The “evidence” here – taken without adjustment or question from the CCP – was a baldfaced lie. And everyone at WHO knew it.Fake news is now defined as anything that disputes WHO data, which means that fake news is now defined as anything that disputes the official China party line.Where possible, China wants to criminalize any speech ... any social media ... that does not follow the official party line. Where it‟s not possible to criminalize that speech, China wants to ban it through the cooperative censorship of global tech and media platforms.#Coronavirus how the @WHO is leading the social media fight against misinformation @DrTedros @SCMPNews http://j.mp/32gPzxX
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It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site
Law & Politics
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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There is no V shaped recovery coming in 2021. Thats just a Fantasy. The Spinning Top
World Of Finance
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Consensus estimates for Q4 GDP have continued to fall ... as of yesterday, +3.7% is estimated, well below double-digit gain anticipated this past summer @biancoresearch @Bloomberg @LizAnnSonders
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1802
Dollar Index 92.939
Japan Yen 105.019
Swiss Franc 0.91487
Pound 1.3146
Aussie 0.7232
India Rupee 74.5895
South Korea Won 1115.355
Brazil Real 5.4581
Egypt Pound 15.6407
South Africa Rand 15.645
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Dollar Index Chart INO 92.938
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1803
World Currencies
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Monday's crash in momentum stocks was a 15 Sigma event, or something that should happen every 1.090e+048 years. @tracyalloway
World Of Finance
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So we should all feel really lucky to have experienced such a momentous momentum event in our lifetimes! Via JPMorgan:
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold 6 month INO 1879.00
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 40.44
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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@emirates said it lost $3.4 billion in the first half of the year due to the coronavirus crisis, handing its holding company a half-year loss for the first time in over thirty years
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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24 FEB 14 :: Dubai is the real transit state, a connection point in an interconnected century
Emerging Markets
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“There is nothing like a dream to create the future,” Victor Hugo said.
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10-MAY-2020 :: For example Tourism – I believe it is stopped out through Q4 2021 [even with a Vaccine]
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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Dubai’s Burj Khalifa
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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Jerry Rawlings, formerly president of Ghana, has died. He ruled Ghana as the head of a military junta from 1981 to 1992, then won 2 presidential elections. @Unseen_Archive
Law & Politics
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The insanity that seems to have seized Ethiopia @AwDoll
Africa
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.@BilleneSeyoum provides us with a deep insight into @NobelPrize Winner @PMEthiopia's thinking
Law & Politics
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“He came to power to stabilise ethno-nationalism, but he has lifted the lid on a much more serious problem which he is now desperately trying to contain.” @RAbdiAnalyst
Law & Politics
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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province. The Spinning Top
Law & Politics
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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
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The leader of Tigray region Debretsion told @ReutersAfrica vowed to defend his people until federal authorities realise "we cannot be subjugated by their knife". @MaggieFick
Law & Politics
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The leader of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region Debretsion told @ReutersAfrica government air strikes had killed an unspecified number of civilians in recent days and vowed to defend his people until federal authorities realise "we cannot be subjugated by their knife".
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“Ethiopia is the anchor state of #HornofAfrica,” @CrisisGroup’s @mutigam “.‘..If there was a major internal crisis within #Ethiopia, it would not implode inwards. It would explode outwards.’” @VOANews H/T @DanielSSchearf
Africa
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Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Africa
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#Tigray, Ethiopia update: @amnesty has geolocated & gathered harrowing testimony of a mass killing. We’re corroborating details and will issue a statement soon. @amnestypress
Africa
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A fiendishly complicated task fending off the centripetal forces which are tearing Ethiopia apart
Africa
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02-JUL-2018 :: He said “The ppl of Tigray are still begging for a drop of water; TPLF (the party) is not the people of Tigray”.
Africa
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#COVID19 Africa daily infections clocked 6,220 September 21st now 13,153 as of November 10th @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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Latest positive rates in Africa, where confirmed cases have been increasing since October: Morocco: 24.4% DR of Congo: 17.1% Kenya: 14.6% Uganda: 8.6% Ghana: 5% @redouad
Africa
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#COVID19 Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 102 days and has reported more than 1,930,000 since the pandemic began. @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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''Viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics' #COVID19
Africa
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The basement parking at Livingstone Hospital was turned into a Covid-19 ward at a cost of R11 million but cannot be used due to staff shortages. (Photo: Department of Public Works)
Africa
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People out drinking in Port Elizabeth’s Walmer Township, an emerging hotspot in the Nelson Mandela Bay area. Picture: Donna van der Watt
Africa
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File photo, 3 August 2020: Covid-19 patients in Livingstone Hospital in the Eastern Cape. (Photo: Mike Holmes)
Africa
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―They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Africa
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―In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions.
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South Africa 20,011 #COVID19 deaths most in Africa and growing by 61/day on average. @jmlukens
Africa
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COVID-19 Total Deaths
#SouthAfrica: 20,011
#Morocco: 4,506
#Tunisia: 2,100
#Algeria: 2,093
#Ethiopia: 1,545
#Kenya: 1,180
#Sudan: 1,116
#Libya: 970
#Angola: 312
#Uganda: 139
#SouthSudan: 59
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Turning to Africa The Spinning Top
Africa
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So far Africa has dodged the Virus from a medical perspective though it remains in my view a slow burning Fuse and we all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'
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Morocco 4,436 avg #COVID19 cases per day up 33% past two weeks. Algeria avg cases per day up 93% past 2wks. @jmlukens
Africa
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COVID-19 avg Daily Case Increase #Algeria: 93% #Botswana: 75% #Uganda: 74% #Ghana: 71% #Kenya: 62% #Nigeria: 51% #Morocco: 33% #Libya: 5% #Angola: 4%
The real challenge is the Economic Emergency.
The latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa projects economic activity in the region to decline by 3.0% in 2020 and recover by 3.1% in 2021. @IMFNews
The IMF is so bright eyed and bushy tailed and I want some of whatever Pills they are popping.
Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Democracy from Tanzania to Zimbabwe to Cameroon has been shredded.
We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming
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10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
Africa
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Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?
This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
The Event is no longer over the Horizon.
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2018-2019 saw a huge surge of funding into sub-Saharan Africa. @AGelpern @Brad_Setser report for G30 @adam_tooze
Africa
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Africa is on the brink of debt disaster @SimumbaTrevor
Africa
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China must take responsibility for financing huge loans that mostly finance highly inflated projects & end up in politicians pockets. need for stricter value for money audits and transparent processes for contracting Chinese loans. Africa is on the brink of debt disaster
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5 March 2020 Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
Africa
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Zambia Stares Down the Default Barrel With Key Creditors to Vote @markets
Africa
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Zambia faces a crucial vote that could see it become the first African country to default on sovereign debt payments since the outbreak of the coronavirus was declared a global pandemic almost eight months ago.
Holders of its $3 billion in Eurobonds attending meetings at a law company in London on Friday are expected to reject a government request for a payment holiday after the government last month missed an interest payment on $1 billion of bonds due 2024.
A 30-day grace period expires on Friday, and should the vote go against Zambia it would put the country in default, giving investors the right to demand immediate repayment of the principal.
The notes fell for a third straight day Thursday, trading at less that 46 cents on the dollar.
“Zambia is mere hours away from being declared in default,” said Irmgard Erasmus, an economist at NKC Africa Economics in Paarl, near Cape Town.
Zambia’s souring relationships with creditors and multilateral organizations after years of spendthrift policies and corruption allegations “create a more hostile environment in which to negotiate a complex restructuring,” she said.
Finance Minister Bwalya Ng’andu has said Zambia needs breathing space from all external creditors while it negotiates a comprehensive reprofiling of its debt.
Bondholders are skeptical and have demanded more transparency from the government of Africa’s number-two copper producer, particularly with regard to debt due to Chinese lenders.
They also want to see progress in reaching a deal with the International Monetary Fund on an economic recovery program.
The government has failed to show progress on either, according to Patrick Curran, an economist with Tellimer, an emerging-markets research firm.
The finance ministry didn’t respond to multiple calls and messages seeking comment.
While the pandemic has worsened Zambia’s economic troubles, the government ignored warnings about its borrowing for years.
External debt has soared to about $12 billion, and total government borrowing will reach 120% of gross domestic product this year.
Zambia still has a glimmer of hope, though. Also on Friday, creditors from the Group of 20 largest economies are set to announce a so-called “common framework”, which could provide a road map for dealing with official and private creditors of poor countries struggling to meet their obligations.
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December 9, 2019 They are still popping Quaaludes in Lusaka.
Africa
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14-OCT-2019 :: Ozymandias The Canary in the Coal Mine is Zambia.
Africa
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Gauteng’s jacaranda splendour in 25 stunning pictures
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 15.6418
World Currencies
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Egypt is the latest EM to cut its key rate - this time by 50bps to 8.25%. The year started at 12.25%. CB front-loaded the cuts, but then been slow despite low inflation, offering one of highest real rates at ~4% so far. @akcakmak
Emerging Markets
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Latest CPI only at 4.5%, still huge room too to cut.
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 15.644
World Currencies
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BOOOMM!!!! @nsenigeria Index Circuit Breaker triggered. All Securities on the ASI suspended for the next 30 minutes. Trading will resume at 13:35:24 @itempili
Africa
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BREAKING: @nsenigeria ceo @OscarNOnyema tells @ARISEtv the bourse's trading system today self-triggered (circuit breaker) when index reading hits daily limit of +5% (also if -5%). Total transactions before trigger was c.12bn shares. @FrontierAFR
Africa
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Trading has resumed after collating all orders.
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Nov. 12: @nsenigeria Composite Index finished +6.23%. Market circuit breaker triggered at 5%, market stopped for 30 minutes. Trading resumed and continued to rally to close 6.23% in total. @BBoason @FrontierAFR
Africa
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Nigerian stocks surge the most in more than five years and trigger a market-wide circuit breaker for the first time @BBGAfrica
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Russia Plans Naval Base On #Sudan's Strategic Red Sea A naval base in Sudan expands Russian influence in NE Africa along vital shipping routes in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait @chigrl
Africa
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28 OCT 19 :: From Russia with Love
Africa
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But, he said, Russia was going to be a different kind of superpower, one that does not engage in “pressure, intimidation and blackmail” to “exploit” sovereign African governments.
“Our African agenda is positive and future-oriented. We do not ally with someone against someone else, and we strongly oppose any geopolitical games involving Africa.”
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Equity Bank share price data
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
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Regional subsidiaries now contribute: 40% of group deposits, 39% total assets, 33% of loan book, 30% group’s revenue and 25% of the group profit @wazua
Africa
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Loan loss provision up tenfold from the previous year leading to a decline of profit after tax by 14%.
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Trick or Treat? Kenyan bank valuations are at historical lows, with the average share price down 31.6% YTD vs. -8.0% for the frontier banks universe and now present an attractive entry point for investors - @efghermes @bankelele.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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“Kenya has weird landlords who would rather retain empty units than drop prices to attract or retain tenants,” said Sakina Hassanali, @HassConsult @BD_Africa
RealEstate, Housing & Construction
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Coffee chain @javahouseafrica resorts to job cuts @BD_Africa
Retail & Manufacturing
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The restaurant chain indicated that it has been struggling with reduced traffic at its outlets as well as closure of others due to the restrictions put in place to curb spread of the respiratory disease.
“During the last few months we have looked at every aspect of cost reduction in the business, including re-negotiating rents, our procurement of raw material, our labour schedules, our utility costs, etc. and these are now moving towards a very low level in line with expected sales,” Java said in a communication to its employees.
“But unfortunately, the business is potentially over resourced at the current level of performance. Hence Java has had to make a difficult decision to offer the program to provide our staff the opportunity to receive a lump sum financial payment from the company allowing them to create options for themselves following the prolonged effects of Covid-19.”
In April, the coffee chain slashed employee compensation by up to 40 percent as the first set of restrictions implemented by the government, which included the closure of dine-in options for restaurants, hit the sector.
The company was on a bullish expansion streak before the pandemic, hitting a branch network of more than 70 as well as introducing new brands under its umbrella including Kukito. Besides Kukito and Java restaurants, the Java House Group also runs Planet Yogurt and 360 Degrees Pizza.
The restaurant segment was hard hit by Covid-19, with some of the international chains such as Subway, Pizza Hut, Hardee’s and others yet to reopen most branches.
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06-APR-2020 :: The Way We Live Now
Africa
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Venturing to the Supermarket is like going on a Safari. You look around. You keep your distance. You want to leave. You think every surface is potentially a Killer. You walk around the familiar and it all feels so unfamiliar.
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Joy in Nairobi as plan to uproot iconic fig tree abandoned @AJENews
Africa
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Strangler Fig Tree in the Chyulu Hills Forest @finchhattons
Africa
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Tsavo West National Park Landscape with Finch Hattons, @finchhattons [Chyulu Hills from 08:30]
Africa
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Sunset Chyulu Hills cc @finchhattons
Africa
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"Sal, we gotta go and never stop going 'till we get there.' [Hannah and I in the Chyulu] Matters from the Chyulu
Africa
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 109.25
World Currencies
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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