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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 25th of November 2020
 
Morning
Africa
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Macro Thoughts
World Of Finance
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I think the Vaccine News has created a Head Fake level whipsaw move which will entirely reversed.
World Of Finance
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November @markets so far: @SarahPonczek
World Of Finance




- Dow up 13%, passes 30k, best month since 1987

- Russell 2000 up 20%, best month EVER

- S&P energy up 37%, best month EVER

- S&P financials up 19%, best month since 2009

- S&P industrials up 18%, best month EVER




Mana Pools @africageo
Africa
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Elephants at dawn at Shompole Wilderness. Photo by Rebuilding the Pride. @kenyapics
Africa


''You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”
Africa


'Dreams of Africa' taken by Lee-Anne Robertson @GreatestMara
Africa


A Luminous and Fairy Tale feel
Africa


Elephant and waterbuck scattered over the Shompole Wetlands in southern Kenya. Photo by @bobbyneptune @kenyapics
Africa


Bull ele below Shompole Mountain via @WillKnocker
Africa


On the banks of River Ewaso Nyiro in Shompole. Photo by @truthslinger
Africa


Sunrise walk up the Nguruman escarpment, with views of the plains, Mt Shompole and Loita hills. @shetweezy
Africa


Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Historic moment. Trump came out to congratulate America for the Dow breaking 30,000 which he called a "sacred number." Walks offstage 30 seconds later. Wild stuff. @heStalwart
Law & Politics


The Spinning Top
World Of Finance


“You can't eat the orange and throw the peel away - a man is not a piece of fruit.”



World 59,750,096 total #COVID19 cases exponentially growing 1.02% per day on avg. Yesterday growth rate of 0.98% down from recent Nov 6 peak of 1.30% due to slowing European growth.
Misc.


Death growth rate jumped to 0.91% as 12,784 deaths yesterday increased global total to 1,408,978.





The Virus is not going away anytime in fact it is now exponential
Misc.


Europe 238,052 avg new #COVID19 cases per day down 17% past 2wks. North America 189,330 avg cases/day up 41% past 2wks and accelerating. @jmlukens @jmlukens
Misc.


South America and Middle East daily cases up 16% and 25%, respectively. Asia & Africa cases per day flat.



#US 3rd wave #COVID19 outbreak avg exponential case growth rate increased to 1.47% past 2wks and now averages 165,029 new cases/day. @jmlukens
Misc.


252,535 Total deaths exponentially increased 0.8% yesterday and 1,335 avg deaths/day increasing rapidly.



Political decision-making is now driven by often weaponized babble. @FukuyamaFrancis
Law & Politics


A reality TV star botched the response to a global pandemic #COVID19
Law & Politics


Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance


This chart represents the daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 against time, in days. A rolling mean of 4 days has been applied. The color represents the daily variation of new cases. @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.


"We intend to conduct a thorough and rigorous investigation into the origins and early spread of SARS-CoV-2," Dr. @PeterDaszak @TheLancet COVID Commission Task Force on the Origins of SARS-CoV-2
Misc.
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Thread
Misc.


“We have concerns that WIV has not satisfied safety requirements under the award, and that EcoHealth Alliance hasn’t satisfied its obligations to monitor” its partner @Ayjchan
Misc.
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‘’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Misc.



There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released



It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site
Misc.


US Senate Appropriations Committee report "the Chinese government continues to recruit NIH-funded researchers to steal intellectual property, cheat the peer-review system, establish shadow laboratories in China." @TheSeeker268
Law & Politics


US Senate Appropriations Committee report for FY 2021 | Foreign Threats to Research: "the Chinese government continues to recruit NIH-funded researchers to steal intellectual property, cheat the peer-review system, establish shadow laboratories in China."



“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” ― Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Law & Politics







“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”





.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros
Law & Politics


However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
Misc.



According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”



International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 
1.191005

Dollar Index 92.076

Japan Yen 104.385

Swiss Franc 0.91062

Pound 1.337825

Aussie 0.735335

India Rupee 73.96165

South Korea Won 1106.415

Brazil Real 5.3739526

Egypt Pound 15.648494

South Africa Rand 15.199490

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#USD #DXY: the #Dollar Index is heading towards the very bottom of the range in which it has been trading since August. @StockBondTrader 92.036
World Currencies


27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions $DXY < 90.00
World Currencies


$EURUSD up through 1.1917 for the first time in almost three-months #FX 1.1924
World Currencies


27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions Euro 1.25
World Currencies


England offers travelers shortened quarantine with Covid tests via @sidyoutwit @ZSchneeweiss
Misc.


COVID-19 and a Rolling Sudden Stop
Misc.


#Tesla hits $500bn mark as the meteoric rally continues. Musk stock has risen 564% this year. @Schuldensuehner
World Of Finance


#Bitcoin hits $19,000 for first time in 3yrs, all-time high in sight. @Schuldensuehner
World Of Finance


Commodities
Commodities
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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GOLD CFDs $XAUUSD nears 1796 for a retrace of the breakout range. @jfhksar88 1813.50
Commodities


Full parabola retrace 1796 = 200DMA @TheLastDegree
Commodities


Just totted up the expiring Dec gold cals on Comex with strikes at $1800 or more - about 150,000. This is why gold has been smashed, so that they expire worthless! @MacleodFinance
Commodities


Oil prices have hit $47 a barrel, their highest level since March, after positive vaccine news sparked a comeback in one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic @FinancialTimes
Commodities


*COPPER IN LONDON EXTENDS SURGE TO HIGHEST SINCE 2014 @biancoresearch
Commodities


Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
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Peru issues 100 year bond too at 3.23% @ekmokaya
Emerging Markets


Sub Saharan Africa
Africa
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South Africa avg 2,132 #COVID19 cases/day up 40% & Algeria 935 cases/day up 131% past 2wks and accelerating. @jmlukens
Africa



COVID19 avg cases/day

#Morocco: 4,962

#SouthAfrica: 2,132

#Tunisia: 1,095

#Kenya: 1,060

#Algeria: 935

#Libya: 600

#Ethiopia: 454

#Uganda: 276

#Botswana: 196

#Nigeria: 159



16-FEB-2020 :: ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics' #COVID19
Africa


Africa #COVID19 low was Daily Infections was 5,915 on September 28th November 21st 14,906 and November 23rd 9,762 Reuters
Africa


#COVID19 Cases 2,092,279 Deaths 50,296 Recoveries 1,771,334 @AfricaCDC
Africa
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Turning to Africa The Spinning Top
Africa


So far Africa has dodged the Virus from a medical perspective though it remains in my view a slow burning Fuse and we all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'

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Grand welcome ceremony in Beijing for #Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie’s visit to China on Oct. 1971, by taking Ethiopian Airline @flyethiopian @shen_shiwei
Africa


Tigray forces say they 'completely destroyed' Ethiopia's 21st mechanized division
Africa






Forces battling Ethiopia’s federal government in the northern Tigray region “completely destroyed” the army’s 21st mechanised division, a spokesman for the Tigray forces, Getachew Reda, said on Tuesday.

A government spokesman did not return calls seeking comment. Reuters has been unable to verify statements made by either side since phone and internet connections to the Tigray region are down and access to the area is strictly controlled.

Since the conflict erupted on Nov. 4, hundreds of people have been killed and about 40,000 have fled into neighbouring Sudan.


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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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For Afewerki, the deal with Abiy was a security pact against the TPLF, which he views as his principal adversary. He sees Ethiopia as fragile, destined to fragment like Yugoslavia, and has missed no opportunity to hasten that along @guardian
Africa
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Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Africa
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We have received credible intelligence that TPLF operatives have infiltrated refugees fleeing into Sudan to carry out missions of disinformation. @SOEFactCheck
Africa


We caution media entities & international organizations to thoroughly investigate & verify information they receive.



We interviewed a 20-year-old Tigrayan man today just across the border. @_Will_Brown
Africa





His head had been cut open by an axe and he couldn’t feel the fingers on one hand because his wrist had been slashed with a blade, probably a machete.

I wonder if he was a victim of disinformation?



22-JUN-2020 :: Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Africa


20 JAN 20 :: The Intrusion of Middle Powers
Africa


The #UAE has put substantial sums of money into #Ethiopia and #Eritrea since the signing of their peace agreement and indicated its support for Ethiopia’s #Tigray policy. @Africa_Conf
Africa


There are reports that it allowed drones from #Assab to be used by Ethiopian forces.



Ethiopia will start accepting proposals for two new telecommunication licenses from Friday. @WillisOwiti
Africa


From the article there are three telcos (Orange,MTN and the Safaricom consortium) in contention.



At least 45 people were killed in protests that rocked Kampala and other parts of Uganda last week, a police spokesperson said. @CNNAfrica
Africa


Museveni encountered a crowd chanting Bobi @VinceChepkwony
Africa


Zambia becomes Africa’s first coronavirus-era default: What happens now? @CNBC
Africa



Fitch Ratings downgraded a key rating for Zambia from CC to Restricted Default. 

S&P Global Ratings had already rated Zambia at Selective Default ahead of the expiry of a 30-day grace period and a creditor meeting on Nov. 13.

Besseling also noted that Zambia had made a repayment on a World Bank loan two days before defaulting on the eurobond, indicating where the government’s priorities lie.



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Kenneth Kaunda International Airport in the capital, Lusaka © Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg @FT
Africa
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December 9, 2019 Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa


14-OCT-2019 :: Ozymandias The Canary in the Coal Mine is Zambia.
Africa


Zambia Defaults - Will China acquire a new mineral-rich 'pearl' at fire sale prices? Important implications for the BRI in southern and East Africa @michaeltanchum
Africa


19-APR-2020 :: The End of Vanity China Africa Win Win
Africa


Fitch: “We believe that trend growth will remain around 1.5%, and there are risks that lasting effects of the pandemic could further weigh on trend growth.” @jsphctrl
Africa


Moody’s: “The crisis will leave long-term scars on South Africa's fiscal position principally through two channels: a severe loss in revenue of about 5% of GDP & rising borrowing costs.” @jsphctrl
Africa


Moody’s: “The crisis will leave long-term scars on South Africa's fiscal position principally through two channels: a severe loss in revenue of about 5% of GDP, which the government cannot fully and quickly compensate through spending cuts nor recover; & rising borrowing costs.”



5 March 2020 Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
Africa



He told Bloomberg, “Debt is not a problem, it’s very bad debt that’s a problem,”.

The point is this.

SSA Countries with no exception that I can think of have gorged on borrowing and balance sheets are maxed out.

Africa’s sovereign issuance in the Eurobond markets totaled $53bn in 2018 and 2019 and total outstanding debt topped $100bn last year.

Debt burdens have increased and affordability has weakened across most of Sub-Saharan Africa, while a shift in debt structures has left some countries more exposed to a financial shock, said Moody’s in November last year.

Very few of the investments made are within spitting distance of providing an ROI [Return on Investment].

Rising debt service ratios are best exemplified by Nigeria where the Government is spending more than half of its revenue servicing its debt.

More than 50% of SSA GDP is produced by South Africa, Nigeria and Angola.



News: #CotedIvoire has floated a 12-Year #Eurobond, the first-ever in #SSA of the current #Covid19 period @FrontierAFR
Africa


South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 15.1527
Africa
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 15.6675
Africa
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Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg
Africa
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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Ghana IMF upgraded its economic projection for the country to close to 1% growth this year, followed by 2021 expansion in excess of 4%. #IMF #WorldBank @Africa_Conf
Africa



#Ghana's economic foundations have been shaken by the #COVID19 pandemic, the  @IMFNews says. 

But the multilateral upgraded its economic projection for the country to close to 1% growth this year, followed by 2021 expansion in excess of 4%. #IMF #WorldBank



Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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SOUTH SUDAN Economy running on fumes South Sudan's economy is dead on its feet. Falling oil prices have squeezed government revenues, sending hard currency reserves tumbling and inflation soaring @Africa_Conf
Africa
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The River Nile Juba
Africa
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.@MoodysInvSvc has affirmed Uganda's B2 long-term issuer ratings. The outlook remains stable. ''elevated susceptibility to event risk''
Africa


''The decision to affirm the ratings balances Uganda's long-standing credit challenges, including low wealth levels, narrow economic base, and elevated susceptibility to event risk.." - Moody's



Kenya
Africa
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The virus is spreading across Kenya @NationAfrica
Africa


"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett The Spinning Top
Africa
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There are some optimistic indications that the worst part of the COVID-19 second wave may be behind us as we’re now seeing a clear downturn in the curve of daily new confirmed cases, daily deaths & positivity rate @DrAhmedKalebi
Africa


Year of the Virus
Africa


Besides the downward trend in daily figures, the aggregated weekly data for #COVID19KE also shows that new positive cases & deaths may have peaked over the past 3 weeks @DrAhmedKalebi
Africa


Folks, so there's a proposal to create an employment insurance scheme and a fund into which the employed population in Kenya would contribute 8% of their income to. @IEAKwame
Kenyan Economy


Peak daily energy demand in Kenya has risen to 1,944 MW compared to 1,804 MW in (pre-#COVID19) February 2020 - @rebecca_miano CEO of @KenGenKenya #EnergyCafe @bankelele
Africa


Research note: Remittances to Kenya @MihrThakar
Kenyan Economy


Williamson Tea reports HY Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural



Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           130.00
Total Shares Issued:          17512640.00
Market Capitalization:        2,276,643,200
EPS:             9.39
PE:                 13.845
  

Williamson Tea H1 Earnings for 6 months through 30.09.2020

HY Revenue 1.907878b versus 1.317046b

HY Profit [Loss] from Operations before Tax [19.312m] versus [124.242m]

HY increase in Fair value of biological assets 60.816m versus 5.076m

HY Profit Before Tax 45.223m versus [94.100m]

HY Profit [Loss] for the Period 33.917m versus [65.870m]

HY EPS 1.50 versus [3.61] 

Conclusions

Big Production increase outweighed lower prices 



Kapchorua Tea reports HY Earnings
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural



Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           71.50

Total Shares Issued:          7824000.00

Market Capitalization:        559,416,000

EPS:             16.06

PE:                 4.452

Kapchorua Tea H1 Earnings for 6 months through 30.09.2020

HY Turnover 669.734m versus 338.221m

Loss before Taxation [16.906m] versus [21.527m]

Loss for the Period [12.680m] versus [15.069m]

Loss Per Share [1.62] versus [1.93] 



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 109.75
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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by Aly Khan Satchu (rich.co.ke)
 
 
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