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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 25th of November 2020
 



November @markets so far: @SarahPonczek
World Of Finance




- Dow up 13%, passes 30k, best month since 1987

- Russell 2000 up 20%, best month EVER

- S&P energy up 37%, best month EVER

- S&P financials up 19%, best month since 2009

- S&P industrials up 18%, best month EVER


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The Spinning Top
World Of Finance


“You can't eat the orange and throw the peel away - a man is not a piece of fruit.”

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#US 3rd wave #COVID19 outbreak avg exponential case growth rate increased to 1.47% past 2wks and now averages 165,029 new cases/day. @jmlukens
Misc.


252,535 Total deaths exponentially increased 0.8% yesterday and 1,335 avg deaths/day increasing rapidly.

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‘’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Misc.



There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released

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US Senate Appropriations Committee report "the Chinese government continues to recruit NIH-funded researchers to steal intellectual property, cheat the peer-review system, establish shadow laboratories in China." @TheSeeker268
Law & Politics


US Senate Appropriations Committee report for FY 2021 | Foreign Threats to Research: "the Chinese government continues to recruit NIH-funded researchers to steal intellectual property, cheat the peer-review system, establish shadow laboratories in China."

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“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” ― Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Law & Politics







“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”



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However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
Misc.



According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 
1.191005

Dollar Index 92.076

Japan Yen 104.385

Swiss Franc 0.91062

Pound 1.337825

Aussie 0.735335

India Rupee 73.96165

South Korea Won 1106.415

Brazil Real 5.3739526

Egypt Pound 15.648494

South Africa Rand 15.199490

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South Africa avg 2,132 #COVID19 cases/day up 40% & Algeria 935 cases/day up 131% past 2wks and accelerating. @jmlukens
Africa



COVID19 avg cases/day

#Morocco: 4,962

#SouthAfrica: 2,132

#Tunisia: 1,095

#Kenya: 1,060

#Algeria: 935

#Libya: 600

#Ethiopia: 454

#Uganda: 276

#Botswana: 196

#Nigeria: 159

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Turning to Africa The Spinning Top
Africa


So far Africa has dodged the Virus from a medical perspective though it remains in my view a slow burning Fuse and we all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'

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Tigray forces say they 'completely destroyed' Ethiopia's 21st mechanized division
Africa






Forces battling Ethiopia’s federal government in the northern Tigray region “completely destroyed” the army’s 21st mechanised division, a spokesman for the Tigray forces, Getachew Reda, said on Tuesday.

A government spokesman did not return calls seeking comment. Reuters has been unable to verify statements made by either side since phone and internet connections to the Tigray region are down and access to the area is strictly controlled.

Since the conflict erupted on Nov. 4, hundreds of people have been killed and about 40,000 have fled into neighbouring Sudan.


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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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We have received credible intelligence that TPLF operatives have infiltrated refugees fleeing into Sudan to carry out missions of disinformation. @SOEFactCheck
Africa


We caution media entities & international organizations to thoroughly investigate & verify information they receive.

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We interviewed a 20-year-old Tigrayan man today just across the border. @_Will_Brown
Africa





His head had been cut open by an axe and he couldn’t feel the fingers on one hand because his wrist had been slashed with a blade, probably a machete.

I wonder if he was a victim of disinformation?

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Ethiopia will start accepting proposals for two new telecommunication licenses from Friday. @WillisOwiti
Africa


From the article there are three telcos (Orange,MTN and the Safaricom consortium) in contention.

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Zambia becomes Africa’s first coronavirus-era default: What happens now? @CNBC
Africa



Fitch Ratings downgraded a key rating for Zambia from CC to Restricted Default. 

S&P Global Ratings had already rated Zambia at Selective Default ahead of the expiry of a 30-day grace period and a creditor meeting on Nov. 13.

Besseling also noted that Zambia had made a repayment on a World Bank loan two days before defaulting on the eurobond, indicating where the government’s priorities lie.



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Moody’s: “The crisis will leave long-term scars on South Africa's fiscal position principally through two channels: a severe loss in revenue of about 5% of GDP & rising borrowing costs.” @jsphctrl
Africa


Moody’s: “The crisis will leave long-term scars on South Africa's fiscal position principally through two channels: a severe loss in revenue of about 5% of GDP, which the government cannot fully and quickly compensate through spending cuts nor recover; & rising borrowing costs.”

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5 March 2020 Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
Africa



He told Bloomberg, “Debt is not a problem, it’s very bad debt that’s a problem,”.

The point is this.

SSA Countries with no exception that I can think of have gorged on borrowing and balance sheets are maxed out.

Africa’s sovereign issuance in the Eurobond markets totaled $53bn in 2018 and 2019 and total outstanding debt topped $100bn last year.

Debt burdens have increased and affordability has weakened across most of Sub-Saharan Africa, while a shift in debt structures has left some countries more exposed to a financial shock, said Moody’s in November last year.

Very few of the investments made are within spitting distance of providing an ROI [Return on Investment].

Rising debt service ratios are best exemplified by Nigeria where the Government is spending more than half of its revenue servicing its debt.

More than 50% of SSA GDP is produced by South Africa, Nigeria and Angola.

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Ghana IMF upgraded its economic projection for the country to close to 1% growth this year, followed by 2021 expansion in excess of 4%. #IMF #WorldBank @Africa_Conf
Africa



#Ghana's economic foundations have been shaken by the #COVID19 pandemic, the  @IMFNews says. 

But the multilateral upgraded its economic projection for the country to close to 1% growth this year, followed by 2021 expansion in excess of 4%. #IMF #WorldBank

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.@MoodysInvSvc has affirmed Uganda's B2 long-term issuer ratings. The outlook remains stable. ''elevated susceptibility to event risk''
Africa


''The decision to affirm the ratings balances Uganda's long-standing credit challenges, including low wealth levels, narrow economic base, and elevated susceptibility to event risk.." - Moody's

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Williamson Tea reports HY Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural



Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           130.00
Total Shares Issued:          17512640.00
Market Capitalization:        2,276,643,200
EPS:             9.39
PE:                 13.845
  

Williamson Tea H1 Earnings for 6 months through 30.09.2020

HY Revenue 1.907878b versus 1.317046b

HY Profit [Loss] from Operations before Tax [19.312m] versus [124.242m]

HY increase in Fair value of biological assets 60.816m versus 5.076m

HY Profit Before Tax 45.223m versus [94.100m]

HY Profit [Loss] for the Period 33.917m versus [65.870m]

HY EPS 1.50 versus [3.61] 

Conclusions

Big Production increase outweighed lower prices 

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Kapchorua Tea reports HY Earnings
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural



Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           71.50

Total Shares Issued:          7824000.00

Market Capitalization:        559,416,000

EPS:             16.06

PE:                 4.452

Kapchorua Tea H1 Earnings for 6 months through 30.09.2020

HY Turnover 669.734m versus 338.221m

Loss before Taxation [16.906m] versus [21.527m]

Loss for the Period [12.680m] versus [15.069m]

Loss Per Share [1.62] versus [1.93] 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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