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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 07th of September 2021
 
Morning
Africa

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Honoré Daumier, Don Quixote, c.1865-1870 @opancaro
Misc.



“The most perceptive character in a play is the fool, because the man who wishes to seem simple cannot possibly be a simpleton.” ― Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra, Don Quixote


“...you are a king by your own fireside, as much as any monarch on his throne.” ― Miguel de Cervantes, Don Quixote de La Mancha


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Taliban blew up slain #Hazara leader Abdul Ali Mazari’s statue in Bamiyan @Sarfaraz1201
Law & Politics



22-JUN-2020 :: Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World


The Bamiyan Statues 

And it all left me wondering Who exactly is controlling the Console?

And then I recalled
‘’You remember those twin statues of the Buddha that I told you about? Carved out of a mountain in Afghanistan, that got dynamited by the Taliban back in the spring? Notice anything familiar?" Thomas Pynchon
"Twin Buddhas, twin towers, interesting coincidence, so what." "The Trade Center towers were religious too. They stood for what this country worships above everything else, the market, always the holy fuxxing market." [Thomas Pynchon]

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#Afghanistan 🇦🇫 resistance leader Ahmad Massoud "Whereas, the Taliban have not only remained the same, but have grown more vicious, more cruel, more fundamentalist and more discriminatory than yesterday" @SamRamani2
Law & Politics




Of course, Afghanistan remains a ‘’Ball of fire’’ and chucking the Ball to others to catch is not a Bad Call all things considered.



Managing Afghanistan from now on is increasingly a problem for Moscow and Beijing, and their regional allies. @WSJ.    

https://j.mp/3DvArip

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At some point in time, Taiwan 🇹🇼 will shoot down Chinese bombers that could illegally compromise Taiwan’s air defense systems. @Jkylebass
Law & Politics




23-AUG-2021 ::  There is a fluidity at the Apex of World Power and this brings friction, increases risk and creates ‘’Geopolitical’’ Tail Risks across the spectrum.



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Le virus est la plus grande menace contre le règne de l’Homme sur la planète. @oli3be
Misc.





19-JUL-2021 :: COVID-19





https://j.mp/3Bk45Gj

The Virus remains unresolved.

World 606,764 avg COVID cases per day down 7.5% past 2wk.  9,437 Average deaths per day down 4.5% past 2wks.  Global growth trends on decline since start of July. @jmlukens


Weekly Infections snap a 9 week rising sequence

COVID-19
https://j.mp/3Bk45Gj


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Confirmed cases are making a U-turn globally. But will the U-turn last? @fibke
Misc.



Holmes was startled. “This virus has gone up three notches in effectively a year and that, I think, was the biggest surprise to me”



the fourth wave has arrived in our midst like some crazed arsonist in a dry forest under a heat dome. @TheTyee





23-AUG-2021 :: But Holmes was startled. “This virus has gone up three notches in effectively a year and that, I think, was the biggest surprise to me” 





But Holmes was startled. “This virus has gone up three notches in effectively a year and that, I think, was the biggest surprise to me”
The 1918–19 influenza pandemic also appears to have caused more serious illness as time went on, says Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist at Roskilde University who studies past pandemics.

 “Our data from Denmark suggests it was six times deadlier in the second wave.”

“Many still see Alpha and Delta as being as bad as things are ever going to get,” he says. 

“It would be wise to consider them as steps on a possible trajectory that may challenge our public health response further.”
Some dangerous variants may only be possible if the virus hits on a very rare, winning combination of mutations, Eugene Koonin told me. 

“But with all these millions of infected people, it may very well find that combination.” @kakape 




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Nations w/ record daily COVID cases past wk @jmlukens
Misc.



Philippines: 22,179
Israel: 16,629
Sri Lanka: 11,366
Mongolia: 7,394
Korea, South: 2,865
Benin: 2,566
El Salvador: 2,007
Norway: 1,785
Australia: 1,741
Mauritius: 1,529
Nicaragua: 568
Suriname: 415
Guyana: 356
Grenada: 281
Antigua: 111


"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett



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COVID is already endemic. There is no "path to endemic." We've been at the end of the path for a over year now THIS is what endemic COVID looks like @greg_travis
Misc.



Luckily, no variants on the horizon yet that can beat Delta as far as we know. Definitely not Mu (B.1.612). Though the fitness of C.1.2 in South Africa came relatively close, so that will still be worth watching. @TWenseleers


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Same for South African C.1.2 strain. High evolutionary divergence, but based on the South African GISAID data it currently has a 2% per day growth rate disadvantage relative to Delta @TWenseleers
Misc.



The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is poised to acquire complete resistance to wild-type spike vaccines


mRNA-based vaccines provide effective protection against most common SARS-CoV-2 variants. 

However, identifying likely breakthrough variants is critical for future vaccine development. 

Here, we found that the Delta variant completely escaped from anti-N-terminal domain (NTD) neutralizing antibodies, while increasing responsiveness to anti-NTD infectivity-enhancing antibodies. 

Although Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2-immune sera neutralized the Delta variant, when four common mutations were introduced into the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the Delta variant (Delta 4+), some BNT162b2-immune sera lost neutralizing activity and enhanced the infectivity. 

Unique mutations in the Delta NTD were involved in the enhanced infectivity by the BNT162b2-immune sera. 

Sera of mice immunized by Delta spike, but not wild-type spike, consistently neutralized the Delta 4+ variant without enhancing infectivity. 

Given the fact that a Delta variant with three similar RBD mutations has already emerged according to the GISAID database, it is necessary to develop vaccines that protect against such complete breakthrough variants.

We have now crossed peak Vaccine Euphoria


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1871
Dollar Index 92.203
Japan Yen 109.89
Swiss Franc 0.9148
Pound 1.3830
Aussie 0.7420
India Rupee 73.285
South Korea Won 1157.67
Brazil Real 5.1706
Egypt Pound 15.7074
South Africa Rand 14.2362

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After reaching a peak last week, the active #Covid19 case count in #Africa fell to about 658,000 in the latest week. The third wave of infections has subsided. @NKCAfrica
Africa








"24 out of 54 African countries – are still reporting high or fast-rising #COVID19 case numbers. The epicentre is a moving target, jumping from one sub-region to the next." - Dr @MoetiTshidi @WHOAFRO


"24 out of 54 African countries – nearly half – are still reporting high or fast-rising #COVID19 case numbers. The epicentre is a moving target, jumping from one sub-region to the next. Cases are rising in West, Central & East Africa." - Dr @MoetiTshidi




19-JUL-2021 :: So, my Point is this, our Attention span is short and Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.




Drinking the Kool-Aid 
https://bit.ly/3hCJjXG




''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics''





28-MAR-2021  we are seeing a sustained acceleration in mutant viruses.




“It has all of the signatures of immune escape,” Tulio de Oliveira @Tuliodna the director of South Africa’s world-leading gene-sequencing institute known as @krisp_news @business 


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"We’re not here to play games": @jsphctrl
Africa



Doumbouya said: "If the people are crushed by their elites, it is up to the army to give the people their freedom." @Reuters




Turning to Africa
https://bit.ly/35ekJJr

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming



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West Africa and the return of the military - in five months, we have had military coups in Mali, Chad and now Guinea. @JibrinIbrahim17
Africa



The first footage of the President of #Guinea Alpha Condé arrested by the military appeared on social networks. @terror_alarm



Re-election, Death and Putsch: A zero Sum Game. @hervegogo



A domino effect post Bamako and Ndjamena. These proto-states of ours where regents can be removed just like that. @hervegogo


10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
http://bit.ly/2PoFJTD


Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?
This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
The Event is no longer over the Horizon.

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Russia will be watching the coup in #Guinea closely: @SamRamani2
Africa



1) Guinea is Russia's strongest West African partner 
2) Yevgeny Prigozhin has bauxite interests in Guinea
3) Russia backed Conde's third term and the Wagner Group has deployed PMCs there

Boyarkin blames the protests mainly on “outside forces” and has nothing but praise for Conde. “I consider him a savior for Guinea.”


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Vladimir Putin and Alpha Conde during a meeting on the sidelines of the 2019 Russia-Africa Summit, on Oct. 24, in Sochi. Photographer: Valery SharifulinTASS via Getty Images
Africa



28 OCT 19 ::  From Russia with Love


“Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov 

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Inflation that quickened to 30.4% in August. That’s the highest since December 2012. @business
Africa




The East African nation on Sept. 1 doubled the statutory reserve requirement for commercial lenders to 10% and increased the amount of foreign currency they must remit to the central bank, in an effort to rein in inflation 
Annual food inflation accelerated to 37.6% in August from 32% the previous month as the cost of items from bread to rice increased rapidly. 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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