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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

Washington metastasized into a new epicentre of global uncertainty and
as the special prosecutor Robert Mueller the third’s hot breath could
be felt on President Trump’s collar.

Any financial expert will tell you that President Trump�s financial
affairs are a ��smoking gun.�� Deutsche Bank loans were surely
��mirror�� transactions, where Deutsche Bank was a commission agent
interposed between Trump and the real lender. All those sales where
Trump proclaimed himself a ��genius�� because they
were so off-market, we would all be incredulous, were essentially just
that ��incredible��.� ere is a prima facie case here and its in plain
sight. President Trump knows it and that�s why he has been demanding
Al Pacino [a la Martin Scorsese�s godfather] style demands of loyalty
from the likes of the now dispensed with FBI director James Comey.

If you triangulate Russia @WikiLeaks @JulianAssange & @realDonaldTrump
associates the person who comes up with most hits is @Nigel_Farage

Tanzanian police arrested the leader of the opposition Alliance for
Change and Transparency after he gave a speech about the current state
of the country’s economy.

The authorities detained Zitto Kabwe on Tuesday and he’s currently
being questioned about the speech he made on Oct. 29 in Dar es Salaam,
the commercial capital, Abdallah Khamis, the ACT’s spokesman, said by
phone. The party’s lawyers are trying to establish specific reasons
for the arrest, he said.

Kabwe’s speech covered issues including “the quality of life of
Tanzanians, the state of the economy and how to defeat the ruling
party,” Khamis said.

“Of course not. The Iraqi forces had tanks and planes and we had no
chance. Maybe we would have lasted a day if we had fought, but the
only result would have been bloodshed.”

This long-predicted confrontation never took place, but the loss of
Kirkuk is more than a crippling blow to Kurdish hopes of independence.
With a divided leadership, no allies abroad and without a military
option, the Kurds are losing the semi-independent status they had
built up since Saddam Hussein was defeated in the Gulf War in 1991 and
Iraqi government forces withdrew from the three Kurdish provinces.

There are more than seven billion of us now in this c21st world of
ours. The long tail in a population of seven billion is not an
insignificant absolute number.

‘’In statistics, a long tail of some distributions of numbers is the
portion of the distribution having a large number of occurrences far
from the “head” or central part of the distribution.’’

Put in a different way, there are surely many Brothers Tsarnaev in
this new c21st of ours. And whilst I appreciate Osama Bin Laden is
being nibbled by the fishes somewhere in the ocean, he basically
inspired the likes of the Brothers Tsarnaev, i.e those disaffected
with the c21st. In truth, that disaffection might have any number of
reasons and I am reminded of my French O level where I studied Albert
Camus’ L’Etranger and Camus said;

“The byronic hero, incapable of love, or capable only of an impossible
love, suffers endlessly. He is solitary, languid, his condition
exhausts him. If he wants to feel alive, it must be in the terrible
exaltation of a brief and destructive action*.”

Macro data is skyrocketing all over the world, ...

Euro 1.1631
Dollar Index 94.68
Japan Yen 113.86
Swiss Franc 0.9986
Pound 1.3270
Aussie 0.7664
India Rupee 64.655
South Korea Won 1115.79
Brazil Real 3.2710
Egypt Pound 17.6495
South Africa Rand 14.1360

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

In Nigeria, IMF estimates 62% of government revenues spent on debt in 2017

South Africa's unemployment rate unchanged at 27.7 pct in Q3


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +16.44% (record high)


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.14


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.6495


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +36.49% 2017


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +39.81% 2017


Today is #WorldCitiesDay: our Fav city is Harare!

It was a bout of period pain that led to Liu Yanan’s first taste of
donkey gelatine. The 13-year-old was visiting family in Beijing when
her cramps started for the first time. Her aunt took out an ornate box
filled with smooth chocolate-brown slabs, broke off a small piece, and
stirred it into a pot of sweetened rice porridge.

The medicine was ejiao, a Chinese medicine made from donkey skins and
used for over 2,500 years. Yanan hesitated before eating the mixture,
but she trusted her aunt and wanted relief from the pain. “I felt
comfortable afterwards. My body was warm,” she says. “I took it for a
month and the trouble went away.”

That was back in 2004, and since then China’s ejiao industry has
turned into a global megabusiness. What was once a humble blood tonic
for conditions like anemia – a claim supported by no clinical evidence
– has been rebranded as a wellness product for China’s ascendant
middle class, and now features in face creams, sweets and liqueurs, as
well as a wide variety of medicinal preparations. There are claims it
will help with anemia and acne, boost your energy, improve your sleep,
nourish your yin, prevent cancer, make you look better and even
improve your libido. It is billed, in short, as a miracle elixir.

Journalists walked out en masse after veteran political journalist
Francis Gachuri and 25-year-old television journalist Jane Gatwiri
were assaulted while waiting for Odinga to speak.

“We heard in Swahili, ‘Citizen (TV) must leave,'” she said. “When I
was trying to record, I got a very hot slap on my face – my right
cheek. Someone said I should move, pushed me, my camera was about to
be broken.”

Some of Odinga’s supporters have accused Citizen of bias towards
Kenyatta after the channel ran a tally of last week’s vote.

Odinga, who has lost his fourth election, was expected to give his
first reaction to Kenyatta’s Monday night victory, but delayed a
speech planned for Tuesday morning by several hours.

Odinga boycotted the poll, saying it would not be fair. Kenyatta’s won
by a margin of 98 percent, provoking anger in some pro-Odinga
strongholds, whose residents burnt tyre barricades and threw rocks at
police.

His spokesman later issued an apology for the attack on the
journalists, which happened in the Wiper Party headquarters, a party
in his coalition.

“The Coalition registers unreserved apology to reporters who fell
victim to this unfortunate incident,” the statement said. “The youth
acted on their own and we condemn their actions in strongest terms
possible.”

Nakumatt Holdings Ltd., East Africa’s largest retailer, is seeking a
court order to enter administration as part of a plan to revive its
debt-laden business.

The Kenyan company will go to court on Nov. 8 for a hearing on the
application, which proposes that “business-turnaround professional”
Peter Kahi of PKF Consulting Ltd. be appointed as administrator,
according to a statement emailed Monday from the capital, Nairobi.
Nakumatt is “optimistic” that the order will be granted, as it will
enable the company to continue as a going concern, it said.

“The order will enable Nakumatt to achieve a better outcome for its
creditors as a whole than would likely be the case if the company were
liquidated,” the company said, according to the statement.

Nakumatt has been struggling to pay suppliers and owes at least 30
billion shillings ($289 million) to creditors including KCB Group,
Kenya’s largest lender, along with Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd.
and Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd. The debts, which include
commercial-paper loans, have forced the company to shutter branches in
neighboring Uganda and Tanzania, as well as its home market of Kenya.

Chief Executive Officer Atul Shah, whose family controls the
Nairobi-based company, said last month he was in talks with local
rival Tusker Mattresses Ltd., which trades as Tuskys, about a merger.
Those talks are continuing, the company said Monday.

“Tusker Mattresses has, subject to the Competition Authority of
Kenya’s approval, undertaken to forge ahead with its investment in
Nakumatt in connection with its proposed merger,” according to the
statement.

The anti-trust authority has yet to receive any filings from the two
companies on the proposed merger, Director-General Wang’ombe Kariuki
said by phone on Tuesday.

“They only made an enquiry seeking guidance on how to proceed,” he
said. “Whether it’s a management agreement, merger or acquisition they
need to seek an exemption or approval.”

Tuskys is willing to guarantee as much as 3 billion shillings of debt
and provide 650 million shillings in additional capital to Nakumatt,
the Nairobi-based Business Daily newspaper reported on Tuesday, citing
an offer letter by the smaller rival.

Nakumatt had 63 stores in four East African nations at the end of
2016. Shoprite Holdings Ltd. of South Africa is already in talks about
opening its first stores in Kenya by filling space left empty by the
Nakumatt store closures. Carrefour SA of France, run by franchise
holder Majid Al Futtaim Holding LLC, has also taken up one store in
Nairobi.

Administration would protect Nakumatt against the enforcement of
security over the company’s property or right of re-entry by
landlords, it said.

“Nakumatt is apprehensive that in the absence of an administration
order, there is a significant danger of it being wound up with the
inevitable consequence that the company, its employees, lenders,
landlords and suppliers would suffer significant losses, with a
broader impact on thousands of farmers, small businesses and traders
whose livelihoods are dependent on the business,” according to the
statement.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +21.49% 2017


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +17.06% 2017

World stocks are up 12 months in a row, the longest winning streak on record
US Consumer Confidence jumped to the highest level since 2000.
The IMF is warning about Africa's rising debt and the rising debt service ratio.
In Nigeria, IMF estimates 62% of government revenues were spent on
debt service in 2017
“This election must not stand,” opposition leader Raila Odinga told
reporters in Nairobi, the capital [Bloomberg]
Asset markets are discounting the NASA Leader's comments and see the
Political situation as a Fait Accompli.
Bond investors indicated that they view the declaration of Kenyatta’s
victory as the beginning of the end of the crisis, with the yield on
the government’s international bonds due in 2024 tumbling 15 basis
points to 6.16 percent since the announcement of the results
[Bloomberg]
The Nairobi All Share followed on yesterdays big gain of 1.174% gain
with a further +.1.21% gain to close at 163.96.
The Nairobi NSE followed on yesterdays +54.78 points gain with a
further +30.05 gain to close at 3759.67
Todays thrust higher was affirmed by good volume action of 1.24b some
6x the average traded last month.

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and
firmed +0.98% to close at 25.75 and traded 12.49m shares worth
321.783m. Safaricom is +39.53% in 2017 on a Total Return Basis and
sits just -2.83% below a record closing high of 26.50 reached at the
End of August. Safaricom will release H1 Earnings this Friday
pre-market opening.

Kenya Airways rallied a further 3.508% to close at 5.90 and has ramped
+16.831% higher over 3 trading sessions.

Equity Group surged +7.23% to close at 40.75 and was trading at 41.50
+9.21% at the finish. Equity traded 4.239m shares and Q3 2017 Earnings
that Captain Mwangi turned his Equity Bank Oil Tanker early and on a
dime and hence the vibrant are price reaction. Equity traded 4.239m
shares and There were unserviced Buyers for 5.77m shares at the
closing bell.
KCB Group rallied +2.614% to close at 39.25 and was trading at Limit
Up 41.75 +9.87% at the Finale. KCB traded heavy volume of 5.195m
shares.
COOP Bank firmed 5cents to close at 16.00 and traded 5.842m shares.

SanLam Kenya popped +7.40% higher to close at 29.00 and traded 9,300 shares.

Congratulations are in order to Rebecca Miano on her confirmation as
the first female KenGen Kenya  MD and and CEO since 1954. KenGen
firmed +1.71% to close at 8.90 and traded 1.148m shares. KenGen is
+53.44% in 2017.

EABL closed unchanged at 244.00 and traded 1.154m shares worth 282.713m.

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