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Thursday 02nd of November 2017 |
Morning Africa |
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
Macro Thoughts |
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The Hollow Men T.S. Eliot Africa |
Here we go round the prickly pear Prickly pear prickly pear Here we go round the prickly pear At five o'clock in the morning.
Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom
Between the conception And the creation Between the emotion And the response Falls the Shadow Life is very long
Between the desire And the spasm Between the potency And the existence Between the essence And the descent Falls the Shadow For Thine is the Kingdom
For Thine is Life is For Thine is the
This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper.
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29-APR-2013 :: The Brothers Tsarnaev and the Long Tail Law & Politics |
There are more than seven billion of us now in this c21st world of ours. The long tail in a population of seven billion is not an insignificant absolute number.
‘’In statistics, a long tail of some distributions of numbers is the portion of the distribution having a large number of occurrences far from the “head” or central part of the distribution.’’
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29-APR-2013 :: Put in a different way, there are surely many Brothers Tsarnaev in this new c21st of ours. Law & Politics |
And whilst I appreciate Osama Bin Laden is being nibbled by the fishes somewhere in the ocean, he basically inspired the likes of the Brothers Tsarnaev, i.e those disaffected with the c21st. In truth, that disaffection might have any number of reasons and I am reminded of my French O level where I studied Albert Camus’ L’Etranger and Camus said;
“The byronic hero, incapable of love, or capable only of an impossible love, suffers endlessly. He is solitary, languid, his condition exhausts him. If he wants to feel alive, it must be in the terrible exaltation of a brief and destructive action*.”
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From Oil to Ruthenium, Here's How Commodities Are Bouncing Back Bloomberg Commodities |
Commodities are booming again.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up more than 9 percent from its late-June lows, outpacing the S&P 500 Index’s 6 percent advance over the same stretch.
Signs that the long-awaited rebalancing of the global crude market is at hand have pushed Brent futures to two-year highs, while West Texas Intermediate isn’t too far behind. And it’s not just oil: Synchronized global growth and China’s crackdown on capacity in a bid to help clean up the environment have fostered gains across the spectrum for raw materials.
Even more impressive for the broad commodity rally: It’s occurring amid back-to-back months of gains for the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, typically a headwind for raw materials.
Metals are also on a tear, giving traders and industry experts gathered for LME Week in London plenty to cheer about. From aluminum to zinc, just about everything is up. Codelco, the biggest copper producer, suggested a run toward the all-time high of $10,190 a ton may be possible. Expectations of surging battery demand are buffering nickel prices. But the real star of 2017? That’s palladium. The metal is heading for its highest close since 2001 thanks to its role as a key component in curbing emissions in gasoline-powered vehicles.
A testament to firming demand buoying metals prices: Inventories on the London Metal Exchange continue to shrink.
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28 killed in rare protests in Eritrea, opposition group says AP Africa |
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) — At least 28 people have been killed in rare protests in the capital of Eritrea, one of the world’s most reclusive nations, an official with the largest Eritrean opposition group said Wednesday.
Another more than 100 people were injured in the protests in Asmara that began on Monday and escalated on Tuesday, spokesman Nasredin Ali with the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization told The Associated Press, citing sources on the ground in Eritrea. The group is based in neighboring Ethiopia.
The U.S. Embassy in Eritrea late Tuesday reported gunfire “at several locations in Asmara due to protests” and advised U.S. citizens to avoid the downtown area. The statement did not say why the protests occurred.
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Liberia's Supreme Court halts presidential run-off over fraud allegations Reuters Africa |
Liberia’s Supreme Court has stayed next week’s presidential run-off election until it considers a challenge to first round results by a losing candidate who has alleged fraud.
In Liberia’s capital Monrovia on Wednesday, riot police deployed outside the Supreme Court and election commission headquarters as authorities urged calm.
“The public should not panic,” Sam Collins, a police spokesman, told local radio. “People can go about their normal business.”
Weah won the first round with 38.4 percent of the vote to Boakai’s 28.8 percent and picked up an important endorsement last week from former warlord Prince Johnson, who won 8 percent of the first-round vote [nL8N1N183V].
Morluba Morlu, a senior official from Weah’s CDC party, said on Wednesday that he still expected the run-off to go ahead next week.
“It is sad for a ruling party that has been in power for 12 years (to) be crying,” he said of Unity Party’s support for the legal challenge. “We don’t want any mockery of this election.”
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Zimbabwe: Financial System Is Living On Borrowed Time - and Borrowed Money By Roger Southall, University of the Witwatersrand Africa |
Zimbabwe's financial system increasingly resembles a house of cards. Were one card to give way - for instance, if South Africa's power utility, Eskom, were to have the temerity to suggest that Zimbabwe actually pay for the electricity that it's supplying the country - the entire edifice would collapse.
To put it another way, the government is bust. It is again printing money to cover its spiralling costs, and inflation is rising. And given that there's an election looming in 2018, Zimbabwe's ruling party, ZANU-PF doesn't want to cut-back. Far from it, it wants to carry on spending, as fast as it can.
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Peter Hain's "smoking gun" - provides bank accounts detailing how Guptas took billions from SA via @biznewscom Africa |
LONDON — Renowned anti-Apartheid activist, Lord Peter Hain, drove a very deep nail into the Zupta coffin in the UK’s House of Lords on Wednesday. In a speech that was televised live, Hain said he has handed over a “smoking gun” to the UK Treasury – documents revealing details of money laundered by the Guptas from South Africa through the UK into Hong Kong and Dubai. This evidence, which also contains full details of the beneficiary bank accounts and how the money was sloshed around to disguise its origin, breaks the investigation wide open, giving the authorities an open and shut case of money laundering. Hain also says that according to his information, these transactions channelled were flagged by staffers at the UK bank used to launder the dirty money. He did not name the bank today, but from his previous disclosures, it is obvious that he is referring to HSBC. Hain says the bank’s staffers were told by executives higher up the chain not to report the transactions – an action which the Lord says makes them criminally complicit. His full speech is transcribed below – the dynamite section is highlighted in bold italics. With the FBI in hot pursuit, and the UAE Central Bank closely eyeing the Guptas, this latest revelation from Hain closes the loop for the authorities – pointing them towards the evidence that will very likely retrieve billions of rands back into South Africa and put the corrupt crony capitalists – and their accomplices – behind bars for a long, long time. – Alec Hogg
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"Afrikan Boy Sittin'" from "My Rock Stars: Volume 2" @1843mag Africa |
The nine works in “My Rock Stars” appear to be photographs, but as the artists stand up to perform one by one you realise you are looking at screens. Video art is rarely as compelling as these MTV-worthy performances. When Afrikan Boy, a British-Nigerian artist who, like Hajjaj, revels in his dual identity, starts to rap, the others look sideways at him and nod or sway to the rhythm. In a thick Nigerian accent, he delivers lines from his 2013 song “Hit Em Up”: “When I was younger they said I was fat, I stopped learning how to swim just because of that.” He’s mocking the stereotype of the African who is skeletally thin, and can’t swim.
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N.S.E Today |
The Bank of England has raised interest rates a 1/4 point to 0.5% and this is the first rate hike in a decade. Sterling reacted poorly and was down more than a 140 basis points versus the dollar. The IMF said SUB SAHARAN AFRICA TO REGISTER 3.4 PERCENT GROWTH IN 2018 VS 2.6 PERCENT IN 2017 The Nairobi All Share could not maintain its winning ways and eased -0.48 points to close at 163.48. The Nairobi NSE20 Index maintained its run higher and closed +17.16 points to close at 3776.83 Equity Turnover was vibrant for the 2nd consecutive session and volume clocked 970.128b
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Citi ahead of the Safaricom Earnings release tomorrow said '' We see m-money as one of two growth drivers for the company going forward, together with data. We are below consensus in our growth outlook as we see three reasons for being cautious: 1. M-money growth is increasingly shared with other players. 2. High voice prices are likely to incentivize migration to OTT. 3. We think the gaming sector, a tailwind in FY16-17, could start to decline following tax rise from Jan 2018'' Safaricom rowed back -1.941% to close at 25.25 and traded 18.954m shares worth 482.86m.
Kenya Airways continued its recent winning ways to close +1.69% at 6.00 a 5 month high and traded 1.030m shares. Kenya Airways has rallied a stellar +18.811% over 4 trading sessions.
Deacons rebounded +8.82% to close at 3.70 on just 500 shares traded.
Standard Group bounced +5.714% to close at 37.00 and is up a mind-boggling +124.24% Year to Date.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
KCB Group rallied +4.45% to close at 41.00 and was trading at 42.00 +7.01% at the Finish Line. KCB has ramped +7.89% higher over 2 sessions. KCB traded 3.500m shares worth 143.869m. Equity Bank which had rallied +12.413% since releasing its Q3 2017 Earnings, stalled today and closed unchanged at 40.75 and traded 3.092m shares worth 126.455m.
Centum Investments bounced +3.125% higher to close at 41.25 and traded 22,600 shares.
Kenya Re ratcheted +6.25% higher to close at 21.25 and traded light.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
KenGen firmed +0.56% to close at 8.95 and was trading at session highs of 9.20 +2.25% at the closing Bell. KenGen traded 4.085m shares and I stand firm on my Year End Price Target of 10.00.
KenolKobil closed +1.35% stronger at 15.00 and traded 2.456m shares. KenolKobil trades on a Trailing PE of 9.146 and accelerated H1 2017 PBT +20.573% making it attractive at these levels. Total Kenya rallied +5.95% to close at 22.25 and traded 22,900 shares.
EABL firmed +0.4% to close at 245.00 and traded 275,200 shares.
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