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The Cast List @netanyahu MBS MBZ Jared Kushner @khamenei_ir
@realDonaldTrump Carte Blanche and Nasrullah

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why ‘The precocity of the
Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange
is one of the glaring facts of history’, made possible by the
‘reversible escalator’ of the monsoon.’

As US President Donald Trump’s wraps up his 13-day Asia tour,
questions are already being asked why he repeatedly used the term
“Indo-Pacific,” rather than the more conventional “Asia-Pacific”, in
his public comments.

America’s leader used the term several times in Japan and South Korea,
and in Vietnam said he was honored to be visiting the “heart of the
Indo-Pacific.”

The answer lies in what happened shortly after Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi arrived in Manila on Sunday. On the sidelines of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit, senior officials from
America, Japan, India and Australia met for quadrilateral talks,
indication that the disbanded Quadrilateral Security Dialogue may be
resurrected.

India’s External Affairs Ministry said in a statement afterwards that
the four nations “agreed that a free, open, prosperous and inclusive
Indo-Pacific region serves the long-term interests of all countries in
the region and of the world at large.”

The “Indo-Pacific” is a pithy slogan to describe the vision of what
policymakers once called the “Quadrilateral,” or “Quad”, an alliance
between the four democracies designed to build a free, open and
peaceful region.

The messages show WikiLeaks, a radical transparency organization that
the American intelligence community believes was chosen by the Russian
government to disseminate the information it had hacked, actively
soliciting Trump Jr.’s cooperation.

From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant
state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of
Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out
and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable
and noteworthy.

Don Jr., Papadopoulos, Page, and others appear to have used Hicks as
an "email launderer"—she shows emails to Trump he can later claim he
never saw.

A new regional network of more than 7,300 police monitoring stations —
500m apart in urban areas — plays cheerful tunes even as armed guards
stand outside. As fears in Beijing grow over terrorism along China’s
borders, so have the numbers of people under surveillance.

Conclusions

Its a Laborotary Experiment in Control and Surveillance.

Euro 1.1674
Dollar Index 94.47
Japan Yen 113.65
Swiss Franc 0.9964
Pound 1.3116
Aussie 0.7633
India Rupee 65.465
South Korea Won 1117.82
Brazil Real 3.2796
Egypt Pound 17.6497
South Africa Rand 14.4909

Chart shows spread between 1-month GBP/USD and EUR/USD implied vol,
widest since May.

A Bloomberg Barclays Index of hard-currency emerging-market bonds has
fallen for six straight days, capping the biggest weekly yield jump
since last year when Donald Trump’s victory spurred a selloff in risk
assets. The gauge shows average borrowing costs for governments and
companies in developing nations have risen to a four-month high of
4.68 percent.

The US military continues to intensify its air campaign in Somalia
against Shabaab and its rival, the Islamic State. US Africa Command,
or AFRICOM, has launched more strikes in 2017 than in any previous
year of the air campaign. This month, American targeting expanded to
include the Islamic State.

On Nov. 11, US forces conducted an airstrike against Shabaab fighters
in Gaduud, killing one, AFRICOM noted in a press release. Gaduud is
located approximately 250 miles southwest of Mogadishu, Somalia’s
capital. US airpower hit Shabaab forces as they were “participating in
attacks on a US and Somali convoy” that was traveling in the area.

An AFRICOM spokeswoman told the Associated Press that these three
attacks raise the 2017 total to 26. Five have taken place since Nov.
9. FDD’s Long War Journal has tracked 21 strikes from AFRICOM press
releases, and has requested information on the five undisclosed
attacks.

Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in Somalia, recently detailed a deadly raid
on a Somali military base near the southern port town of Kismayo that
took place two months ago. The assault, which took place on Sept. 2,
left over 20 Somali military personnel dead, far more than Somali
officials admitted to after the attack.

Shabaab detailed the attack in a video entitled “And Be Harsh Against
Them.” The video, which was released today, includes dramatic footage
of the nighttime assault which included a massive suicide car bombing,
and Shabaab fighters entering the base, clashing with Somali soldiers,
and executing survivors (note: elements of the video appear doctored;
such as the muzzle flashes and some sound effects, however the video
is authentic).

Shabaab’s strike on the Bala Gadud base began with its signature
pattern, a large suicide car bombing to soften the perimeter before an
assault team enters the fray. The video shows the pre-dawn suicide
bombing before turning to the actual raid on the base. At the time,
Somali officials reported that at least 10 soldiers were killed in the
attack. However, Shabaab claimed to have killed 26 soldiers. The video
appears to confirm the larger number; as dozens of dead Somali
soldiers are shown sprawled throughout the base. Shabaab fighters
shoot any who appear to be alive.

In Kenya, hundreds of thousands of people are rising out of poverty as
mobile-money services turn subsistence farmers into businesspeople. A
similar dynamic drives Ethiopia, the fastest-growing economy in
Africa, where the gross domestic product is forecast to climb 8
percent in 2019. Borrowing costs in Ghana plummeted almost 2.5
percentage points during the past 12 months amid an unprecedented gain
in GDP that's been led by the growth of the telecom industry.

From the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean, hand-held phones are letting
people become their own ATMs, increasing economic activity by enabling
payments for food, travel, school and business. Wireless communication
is driving economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa much as the railroad
did in the 19th-century U.S., accounting for almost a tenth of global
mobile subscribers and a growth rate that's beating the world.

The transformation is reflected in the more than 1,300 publicly-traded
companies that make up corporate Africa. The value of communications
firms increased during the past five years to 25 percent of the total
market capitalization of African companies, up from 16 percent,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Materials and energy, the
natural-resources benchmarks that defined the region since its
colonial days, diminished to a combined 18 percent from 27 percent
during the same period.

Nowhere is the trend more pronounced than in Ghana, where the value of
products and services produced by the information and communication
sector surged 239 percent since 2012, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg, by far the fastest growth of any economic sector. Such
explosive growth helped Ghana improve its creditworthiness and lower
the average cost of public and private borrowing to 6.7 percent from
9.1 percent during the past 12 months. The economy continued to expand
at a rate of 6 percent, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg say it
will grow another 6.7 percent next year, almost double its 3.5 percent
rate in 2016.

Both the region and the industry are benefiting. Kenya-based Safaricom
isn't the biggest of the world's telecommunications giants -- its
annual sales are about 3 percent of the average of the world's 60
largest carriers. But its products and services are changing Africa,
boosting its bottom line and attracting global investors. Analysts say
that Safaricom's revenues will rise 10 percent next year, more than
triple the average of those 60 telecommunications giants, after a
sales increase of 13 percent in 2016.

The company is more profitable than most of its 60 global peers,
turning $100 of revenue into $23 of net income in 2016, twice the
average. While its shares have gained 104 percent since 2014 -- more
than 4 times the group average -- Safaricom still trades at a 33
percent discount to its global rivals on a price-to-earnings basis,
according to Bloomberg data.

Safaricom's mobile-money transfer service, M-Pesa, launched in 2007,
now has more than 25 million users in Kenya, a country where 80
percent of the population lives beyond the reach of the electric grid.
A 2016 study credited M-Pesa with increasing daily per capita
consumption levels of about 2 percent of Kenyan households that had
been subsisting on less than $1.25 per day.

The study, by Tanveet Suri, an associate professor at Massachusetts
Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management and William Jack,
an economist at Georgetown University, shows that mobile-money
services relieve extreme poverty by enabling men and women to produce
and sell goods and services in self-designed markets beyond the
boundaries of their subsistence farms. The development is especially
useful for women seeking financial independence in male-headed
households, according to Suri.

Sub-Saharan Africa by the end of 2016 had 420 million unique mobile
subscribers, equivalent to a 43 percent penetration rate in the
world's fastest-growing region, according to the London-based GSMA
trade association of 800 mobile operators. Less than a fifth of
individuals younger than 16 (who account for more than 40 percent of
the population across the continent) have a mobile subscription, GSMA
says. That's why investors anticipate escalating earnings. Mobile
technologies and services generated $110 billion in sub-Saharan
Africa, equivalent to 7.7 percent of GDP, and supported 3.5 million
jobs last year.

Nowhere is the demography more favorable to mobile money. Ethiopia,
Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa include 420 million people, or
41 percent of sub-Saharan Africa and 6 percent of the world. The total
GDP of these countries is $936 billion, or 66 percent of the region.
The population younger than 15 in these five countries ranges from 28
percent to 44 percent, compared to 25 percent for the world, 19
percent for the U.S. and 17 percent for China.

Visa Inc., the world's largest payments network, said this year that
it is planning to expand its mobile-phone application, mVisa, with
lenders in 10 sub-Saharan markets, Bloomberg reported. At the same
time, Shenzhen-based Huawei Technologies Co., said it is working with
London-based WorldRemit Ltd, the money-transfer operator, to enable
African expatriates to send cash home to more than 100 million users
of the Chinese company's mobile-money service platform.

At a point when mobile phone penetration is 65 percent for the world,
sub-Saharan Africa's 43 percent rate is why telecom investors are
making the region their favorite.

Zimbabwe armed forces commander Constantine Chiwenga called for an end
to purges in President Robert Mugabe’s ruling party and said the
security services would stop those “bent on hijacking the revolution,”
signaling a split with the 93-year-old leader.

Chiwenga, speaking alongside the commanders of the army and air force,
was commenting on the upheaval in the ruling Zimbabwe African National
Union-Patriotic Front following Mugabe’s dismissal of Emmerson
Mnangagwa, 75, as vice president a week ago and his subsequent
expulsion from the ruling party. Mnangagwa, an ally of Chiwenga, fled
the southern African nation on Dec. 8 because of “incessant threats”
against him and his family.

“It is with humility and a heavy heart that we come before you to
pronounce the indisputable reality that there is instability in
Zanu-PF today and as a result anxiety in the country at large,”
Chiwenga, 61, told reporters at the King George IV military barracks
in the capital, Harare.

“This is a new and potentially dangerous twist to the politics of the
country,” Eldred Masunungure, a professor of political science at the
University of Zimbabwe, said by phone. “It’s the toxic insertion of
the military and will sour relations between the military and
government.”

“We remain committed to protecting our legacy and those bent on
hijacking the revolution will not be allowed to do so,” Chiwenga said.

Conclusions

Now We are at The Edge.

"The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over"
Hiunter S. Thompson

The result is startling. Bitcoin's BTC=BTSP global surge to a record
high of $7,888 last week - a sevenfold increase since the start of the
year - has been spectacular enough. But on Harare's bitcoin exchange,
Golix (golix.io), the price hit $13,900, a 40-fold jump in the same
period.

Warnings abound internationally that bitcoin may be a bubble waiting
to burst. But the dire state of the Zimbabwean financial system under
President Robert Mugabe is encouraging risk-taking.

“I have now changed all my reserves to bitcoin because that is the
only way I can protect my investment,” said Arnold Manhizwa, who works
for an IT and telecoms company in Harare.

Zimbabweans are therefore piling into anything they think might retain
value. Prices of cars, real estate and stocks have all soared, with
the Harare bourse's main industrial index .INDZI doubling in the last
two months.

Government bond due 2026 also weakened. Yields on the paper climbed
14.5 basis points to 9.495 percent, its highest level since May 2016.

South African 5-year credit default swaps, a measure of the cost of
insuring the country’s debt, hit a four-month high, stoked by reports
of power firm Eskom’s financial troubles.

Eskom said it was not insolvent but was facing serious liquidity issues.

Treasury confirmed Michael Sachs’ resignation, saying he wanted to
join the civil service in a different capacity.

Fin24 said Sachs resigned over interference by Zuma at the Treasury.

“The rumour that a senior treasury official has resigned is obviously
the main reason the rand moved lower,” said chief dealer at Bidvest
Bank

South Africa's Eskom not insolvent but facing cashflow trouble
http://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFKBN1DD11G-OZABS

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +38.84% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +42.63% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

The wild escape #Singita Grumeti #Tanzania #oursingita

The global airline industry has $1.2 billion blocked in nine
dollar-strapped African countries, the International Air Transport
Association (IATA) said on Monday.

Of the total of $1.2 billion, Angola has blocked the largest amount,
$500 million, while Sudan has held up $200 million, another IATA
official, Adefunke Adeyemi, told Reuters.

Last year Nigeria owed airliners $600 million but as of October the
amount had fallen to $221 million, she said.

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +20.25% 2017
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +17.59% 2017
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
https://rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

BlackRock's Larry Fink says we're seeing 'synchronized growth'
worldwide for first time since the financial crisis.
A Bloomberg Barclays Index of hard-currency emerging-market bonds has
fallen for six straight days, capping the biggest weekly yield jump
since last year when Donald Trump’s victory spurred a selloff in risk
assets.
South Africa's Rand has slumped to a one year low [session-worst
14.5425, its weakest level since Nov. 18 2016], Government bonds due
2026 also weakened. Yields on the paper climbed 14.5 basis points to
9.495 percent, its highest level since May 2016.
South African 5-year credit default swaps, a measure of the cost of
insuring the country’s debt, hit a four-month high
Eskom said it was not insolvent but was facing serious liquidity issues.
Here the markets are counting down to the November 20 deadline for
judgment on the petition against President Uhuru Kenyatta’s election.
“Looking forward inflation is well anchored. There’s no reason for it
to deviate from where it is,” Dr. Patrick Njoroge told reporters on
the sidelines of a conference in Dubai.
He said it was inevitable that commercial lending rate caps will be
removed, but timing of the move was uncertain [Reuters]
The Shilling was last at 103.64
The Nairobi All Share shaved off -0.33 points to close at 160.01
The NSE20 retreated 27.52 points to close at 3719.19
Equity turnover clocked 791.018m.

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and closed unchanged at 24.50 but was poised to turn higher,
the weighted average was 24.68 and Safaricom was trading at 25.00
+2.04% at the Finish Line. Bloomberg View carried an Article captioned
''African Economic Growth Rides on Wireless Rails'' which said the
following about Safaricom.

''Safaricom is more profitable than most of its 60 global peers,
turning $100 of revenue into $23 of net income in 2016, twice the
average. While its shares have gained 104 percent since 2014 -- more
than 4 times the group average -- Safaricom still trades at a 33
percent discount to its global rivals on a price-to-earnings basis,
according to Bloomberg data''

Kenya Airways confirmed yesterday that the GOK has Effective Control
over 48.9% of the Ordinary Voting Shares ahead of the Earnings Release
on Friday. Kenya Airways retreated -4.50% to close at 5.30.

COOP Bank retreated -1.234% to close at 16.00 and 5.842m shares
changed hands. COOP Bank reported Q3 2017 Profit before tax declined
-9.770% to clock 13.737886b.
KCB eased -0.62% to close at 39.50 but was trading at 40.00 +0.62% at
the finish line. KCB traded 946,000 shares.

BAT was heavily traded at an unchanged 800.00 and 329,700 shares worth
263.76m changing hands. BAT trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of 18.895
and is the pre-eminent dividend paying stock at the Exchange.

KenGen closed unchanged at 8.40 and traded light with 79,200 shares
changing hands.

ARM Cement did not receive a lift from week-end Take-over chatter and
retreated -2.49% to close at 13.70. ARM remains -46.27% in 2017.

--