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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

“I believe in the complexity of the human story and that there’s no
way you can tell that story in one way and say, This is it. Always
there will be someone who can tell it differently depending on where
they are standing; the same person telling the story will tell it
differently. I think of that masquerade in Igbo festivals that dances
in the public arena. The Igbo people say, If you want to see it well,
you must not stand in one place. The masquerade is moving through this
big arena. Dancing. If you’re rooted to a spot, you miss a lot of the
grace. So you keep moving, and this is the way I think the world’s
stories should be told—from many different perspectives.” ― Chinua
Achebe

“Until the lions have their own historians, the history of the hunt
will always glorify the hunter.” ― Chinua Achebe

“It is the storyteller who makes us what we are, who creates history.
The storyteller creates the memory that the survivors must have -
otherwise their surviving would have no meaning.” ― Chinua Achebe

President Robert Mugabe is insisting he remains Zimbabwe’s only
legitimate ruler, an intelligence source said on Thursday, and is
resisting mediation by a Catholic priest to allow the 93-year-old
former guerrilla a graceful exit after a military coup.

Zimbabwean intelligence reports seen by Reuters suggest that former
security chief Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was ousted as vice-president
this month, has been mapping out a post-Mugabe vision with the
military and opposition for more than a year.

Few Zimbabweans relish the idea of the army replacing one blood-soaked
tyrant with another. “It’s a horrible little country,” lamented one
leading opposition politician, just hours before the coup. After 37
years of Mr Mugabe’s rule, the country’s citizens deserve a chance to
choose their leaders, freely and fairly.

The son of farmers, he was a hardened freedom fighter by 16, trained
as a lawyer and rose to become chief of his new country’s fearsome
intelligence service. Known as the “Crocodile,” he once explained the
nickname by saying: “It strikes at the appropriate time.”

Emmerson Mnangagwa, the vice president of Zimbabwe until he was fired
last week, now stands to become its new leader, after the military
took President Robert Mugabe into custody early Wednesday morning and
plunged the southern African nation into uncertainty.

What role Mr. Mnangagwa, 75, played in what appears to have been a
coup by his military allies is not yet known, but officials and
observers of his rise to power say he shares some of Mr. Mugabe’s
traits: He is power-hungry, corrupt and a master of repression.

“His ruthlessness is legion,” said Peter Fabricius, a South African
journalist and one of many observers who fear that Zimbabwe is
exchanging one strongman for another.

There is also fear about his association with some of the Mugabe era’s
low points: Mr. Mnangagwa was accused of orchestrating a crackdown in
the 1980s in which thousands of members of the Ndebele ethnic group
were killed. He was an avid supporter of Mr. Mugabe’s most
controversial economic policy — the expropriation and redistribution
of land that had been controlled by white farmers since the era of
colonialism. He was also accused of being behind deadly violence in
2008 a bid to rig polls in favor of Mr. Mugabe, a claim he denies.

“There is a healthy dose of trepidation because they know that the man
who might take over is not Mr. Democracy,” said Wilf Mbanga, editor of
The Zimbabwean, an online newspaper. “His track record is not
impressive. He’s got a messy past. Is he going to clean his act? We
don’t know.”

While in charge of the Central Intelligence Organization in the
mid-1980s, Mr. Mnangagwa was accused of orchestrating a brutal
campaign known as Gukurahundi — “the early rain that washes away the
chaff before the spring rain” — in which thousands of political
opponents and civilians from the Ndebele ethnic group were killed, a
claim that he has denied. He has been a central node in the web of
relationships that connect the army, the intelligence agencies and the
governing party.

“A crocodile patiently waits for his target, pretending to be a rock,”
he said. “At times you think he doesn’t react, or doesn’t have any
solution to what is happening. He doesn’t show irritation until the
optimal moment and then he strikes. And when he does, he doesn’t miss
his target.”

“Everyone who gets into politics knows that the moment you join you
don’t join to be the last name, you join with the hope that you’ll
come out first,” he added. Regarding the latest developments, after a
long career, Mr. Mnangagwa “has been patient for a very long time.”

As his commander, Mr. Matemadanda said Mr. Mnangagwa was “one of the
most polite, tolerant, very down-to-earth persons that I have ever
met.”

Zimbabwe’s economy has fallen to the 20th biggest in sub-Saharan
Africa from 10th when President Robert Mugabe came into power almost
four decades ago.

Saudi authorities are negotiating settlements with princes and
businessmen held over allegations of corruption, offering deals for
the detainees to pay for their freedom, say people briefed on the
discussions.

In some cases the government is seeking to appropriate as much as 70
per cent of suspects’ wealth, two of the people said, in a bid to
channel hundreds of billions of dollars into depleted state coffers.

The arrangements, which have already seen some assets and funds handed
over to the state, provide an insight into the strategy behind Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s dramatic corruption purge.

Some of the suspects, many of whom have been detained at the
Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh since last week, are keen to secure their
release by signing over cash and corporate assets, say people close to
the negotiations.

“They are making settlements with most of those in the Ritz,” said one
adviser. “Cough up the cash and you will go home.”

Conclusions

[We could witness a massive $1 trillion dollar disgorge right here],
private jets grounded. The high-profile Princely crew is jailed at the
Riyadh Ritz-Carlton and the gates are now shut, the phone line is
perpetually busy and you can’t book a room until Feb. 1. Fisk
concludes ‘’Put bluntly, he is clawing down all his rivals.’’

In a historic development, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be
hosting his Turkish and Iranian counterparts – Recep Erdogan and
Hassan Rouhani – at a trilateral summit on November 22 in Sochi.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Russian Defence Ministry openly alleged
that the US military is impeding Russian air attacks on ISIS targets
on the Syrian-Iraqi border and is indirectly enabling the terrorists
to regroup. The Pentagon called it a Russian “lie.” At any rate, the
very next day, six Russian Tupolov long-range bombers flew from bases
in Russia via  Iranian and Iraqi airspace to vanquish those ISIS
targets in a massive air strike.

Both Turkey and Iran estimate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman’s seemingly irrational behavior has a pattern. They suspect a
script was worked out by Israel and the Trump administration with the
objective of creating quagmires for Ankara and Tehran.

Earlier this week, Erdogan openly ridiculed the crown prince from an
Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) platform and questioned
whether he was qualified to differentiate “moderate Islam” from the
extremist form. The simmering discord between the erstwhile Caliph and
the Custodian of the Holy Places who succeeded him (on the debris of
the Ottoman Empire) surged into view. Equally, Iran can see that the
Saudis are encouraging Israel to attack Lebanon. In fact, Rouhani
openly spoke about it on Wednesday.

The then 30-year-old crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohamed bin Salman
MBS, who is expected to ascend to the throne as early as this week,
arrived on the scene and immediately launched an unwinnable war in
Yemen. President Assad, with his Russian, Iranian and Lebanese allies,
resisted the regime changers in Syria. IS, which was a Sunni and Saudi
blade, has been eviscerated. Iraq, which was once firmly in the Saudi
camp, is now aligned with Iran completely. Qatar is lost (see the
intercept article which refers to a plan headlined “Control the yield
curve, decide the future” a plan to construct the ‘’Big Short’’ on
Qatar - The crown prince of Abu Dhabi should have spoken to me because
I could have told them how to do it).
Saudi Arabia and its allies UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait are caught in an ever
tightening Shia pincer. The paranoia in the palaces in Saudi Arabia is
real and existential. And what is also clear is that Bibi Netanyahu,
MBS [the crown prince of Abu Dhabi], Jared Kushner and a Trump carte
blanche have all leveraged this existential paranoia to effect not a
state capture but
a kingdom capture. The Guptas were a precursor for this particular capture.

The existential paranoia in the head of 32-year-old wannabe King is
evidenced in this comment about Iran in May this year, “How can I
communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival of al-Mahdi
al-Montazar?”

Last week after being coached into the early hours by Ivanka Trump’s
husband, Jared Kushner, MBS launched his night of the long knives,
which, according to the veteran Journalist Robert Fisk, and I quote:

‘’When Saad Hariri’s jet touched down at Riyadh on the evening of 3
November, the first thing he saw was a group of Saudi policemen
surrounding the plane. When they came aboard, they confiscated his
mobile phone and those of his bodyguards.  us was Lebanon’s prime
minister silenced’’

Mr Ibrahim sees himself as more of an activist than a philanthropist
and, as such, while he sees challenges in Africa, he is not deterred
by them.

“I’m trying to change things,” he says. “Because unless we change the
way we run our countries, govern our people, allocate resources and
create a fairer system that is more transparent, we really cannot move
forward.”

Other philanthropists should do the same, he adds. “It’s unacceptable
to turn your back and say you don’t care.”

“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the
parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused
to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving
toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no
surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

The dollar slipped on Friday, weakened by a Wall Street Journal report
that investigators into possible Russian interference in the 2016 U.S.
presidential election had subpoenaed President Donald Trump’s election
campaign for documents.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team issued the subpoena last month
for documents containing specified Russian keywords from more than a
dozen officials, according to the report.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was down
0.35 percent at 93.593.

Euro 1.1810
Dollar Index 93.61
Japan Yen 112.57
Swiss Franc 0.9925
Pound 1.3233
Aussie 0.7575
India Rupee 64.775
South Korea Won 1097.55
Brazil Real 3.2741
Egypt Pound 17.6400
South Africa Rand 14.1502

The post-earnings rally in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. drove shares to the
highest price ever relative to a key support level. They sold for as
much as $99.68, about $15.17 more than the 50-day moving average. The
stock has historically cleaved closely to that line, with the spread
averaging 25 cents over the past five years. The world’s largest
retailer gained momentum Thursday, surging as much as 11 percent to a
record after reporting earnings that analysts said show it’s
successfully fending off challenges from the likes of Amazon.com Inc.,
Lidl Ltd. and Aldi Stores Inc.

The largest known fancy intense pink diamond went unsold at Sotheby’s
in Geneva on Wednesday amid jitters in the market for precious stones.

The Raj Pink, a 37-carat stone set in a ring, was discovered in 2015
in South Africa. Sotheby’s had estimated its value as high as $30
million. Other lots unsold in the auction included a vivid blue
diamond ring estimated at as much as $18 million and two yellow
diamonds worth as much as $14 million.

Christie’s sold a flawless 163-carat clear diamond for $34 million in
the Swiss city Tuesday night, a price that some observers called low.

Here’s a list of the artworks that set records before Wednesday
night’s $450.3 million sale of Leonardo da Vinci’s “Salvator Mundi.”
$300 million Willem de Kooning “Interchange”  (1955)
$250 million * Paul Cezanne, “The Card Players” (1892-1893)
$210 million ** Paul Gauguin, “When Will You Marry?" (1892)
$200 million Jackson Pollock “Number 17A" (1948)
$186 million (140 million euros) Mark Rothko, “No. 6 (Violet, Green
and Red)” (1951)

ISDA declares #Venezuela, PDVSA in default on their debts. Committee
members incl JPMorgan, Goldman, Elliott Management, Citadel &
AllianceBernstein voted unanimously, 15-0, that a “failure to pay
credit event” had taken place.

Moody’s Investors Service raised India’s sovereign bond rating for the
first time since 2004, citing continued progress in economic and
institutional reforms.

The ratings firm upgraded India to Baa2 from Baa3 and said reforms
being pushed through by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will
help stabilize rising levels of debt. That’s a shift from Moody’s
lowest investment-grade ranking to the second lowest.

The surprise move comes even as India surrendered its status as the
world’s fastest-growing major economy amid sweeping policy change.
Growth slipped below 6 percent in the April-June quarter, sparking
expectations that the government will need to unleash fiscal stimulus.

While Peru’s food is much in vogue, neighboring Bolivia has yet to
rise to the level of dining destination. Gustu is worth considering,
both for the quality of the cooking and for the importance of its
mission of educating disadvantaged young people and supporting the
country's farmers. The ingredients are sourced from farms across
Bolivia, and a school is attached to the restaurant. The dishes may be
unfamiliar: You might find yourself eating raw lama with salty capers
from Tarija, washed down with Bolivian wine. Gustu was opened in 2013
by Claus Meyer, co-founder of Noma, who installed Danish chef Kamilla
Seidler to run the kitchen. While it is a social experiment, it's also
a place with very interesting food.

Frontier Markets

But Ricardo Velloso, the Brazilian economist who led the visit, said
macroeconomic imbalances remain that need to be tackled by the new
government.

In a statement, he highlighted the wide spread between the parallel
and official market exchange rates and a backlog of foreign exchange
purchase requests in commercial banks as points of continuing concern.
Velloso said

Sudanese President Omer al-Bashir Wednesday said leaders of South
Sudan should be brought to trial before the International Criminal
Court (ICC) for atrocities committed during the civil war.

South Sudan, which separated from Sudan after a referendum on
self-determination in 2011, plunged into civil war in December
2013.Thousands of civilians were killed and over millions have been
displaced.

Speaking before student crowd in Khartoum on Monday, al-Bashir said:
“there is nothing in the world like the ongoing death, destruction,
displacement and identity-based killing in South Sudan and it is worth
bringing the South leaders before the ICC”.

He accused the Western countries of colluding to separate South Sudan,
saying they “should have taken all South Sudan leaders, not us, to the
ICC”.

The ICC issued two arrest warrants against al-Bashir in 2009 and 2010
for alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide committed
in Darfur.

He is the first sitting head of state charged by the Hague-based court
since its inception in 2002.

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.1500
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +36.32% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +49.06% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Conclusions

The asymmetric Opposition strategy was effective but its running out
of road and set to be guillotined monday.

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           5.30
Total Shares Issued:          1496469035.00
Market Capitalization:        7,931,285,886
EPS:             -6.82
PE:                 -0.777

Kenya Airways HY 2017 Results through 30th September 2017 vs. 30th
September 2016
HY Revenue 54.518b vs. 54.748b -0.420%
HY Operating costs [53.075b] vs. [53.799b] -1.346%
HY Operating profit 1.443b vs. 949m +52.055%
HY Operating margin 2.65% vs. 1.73% +0.920%
HY Other costs [5.212b] vs. [5.675b] -8.159%
HY Loss before income tax [3.769b] vs. [4.726b] -20.250%
HY Loss after tax [3.802b] vs. [4.783b] -20.510%
HY Total comprehensive loss for the year [3.212b] vs. [3.238b] -0.803%
HY Loss per share [2.54] vs. [3.20] -20.625%
Total assets 142.012b
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 6.986b vs. 12.425b -43.775%

Company Commentary

Financial Highlights
Operating profit up 52% to 1.443b
Fleet costs lower by 21.9%
Overheads decreased by 8.9%
Loss after Tax reduced by 20.5% to 3.8b versus 4.78b

Conclusions

Improved results, better optimised balance sheet should afford some
oxygen but its a long haul back to Par.

It’s made @JeffBezos of @amazon the richest man on the planet and Jack
Ma cannot be far behind. E-commerce is going to be a very big thing
and Safaricom have all the levers with which to secure a leader- ship
position in this space.  eir Mpesa agents can double up as delivery
points, for example.

.@SafaricomLtd is just 5.6% below a record closing high reached at the
end of the August and we will see that record taken out ahead of year
End share data here

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           25.25
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,011,652,057,000
EPS:             1.21
PE:                 20.868

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           8.55
Total Shares Issued:          6243873667.00
Market Capitalization:        53,385,119,853
EPS:             1.37
PE:                 6.241

A key driver of share price performance is the supply versus demand
dynamic. Clearly, those 351.21m shares weighed heavy on the share
price and we saw the price dip below the rights issue price of 6.55.
In February this year, KenGen announced that those 351.21m shares had
been placed with PIC SA [Public Investment Corporation SOC Limited,
acting in its capacity as the authorised representative of the
government employees pension fund, a South African based institutional
investor]. This was the final condition precedent for the share price
to get motoring. PIC SA single-handedly, inverted the supply versus
demand dynamic. They extinguished the surplus supply of shares and
then started a mopping up operation. PIC SA exhibited a style of
investing which is actually very similar to the style deployed by the
sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
https://rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

Trevor proposes sending the lions Down under