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Friday 17th of November 2017 |
Morning Africa |
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Macro Thoughts |
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"I believe in the complexity of the human story." - Chinua Achebe Paris Review Africa |
“I believe in the complexity of the human story and that there’s no way you can tell that story in one way and say, This is it. Always there will be someone who can tell it differently depending on where they are standing; the same person telling the story will tell it differently. I think of that masquerade in Igbo festivals that dances in the public arena. The Igbo people say, If you want to see it well, you must not stand in one place. The masquerade is moving through this big arena. Dancing. If you’re rooted to a spot, you miss a lot of the grace. So you keep moving, and this is the way I think the world’s stories should be told—from many different perspectives.” ― Chinua Achebe
“Until the lions have their own historians, the history of the hunt will always glorify the hunter.” ― Chinua Achebe
“It is the storyteller who makes us what we are, who creates history. The storyteller creates the memory that the survivors must have - otherwise their surviving would have no meaning.” ― Chinua Achebe
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Zimbabwe's Mugabe resisting army pressure to quit: senior source Law & Politics |
President Robert Mugabe is insisting he remains Zimbabwe’s only legitimate ruler, an intelligence source said on Thursday, and is resisting mediation by a Catholic priest to allow the 93-year-old former guerrilla a graceful exit after a military coup.
Zimbabwean intelligence reports seen by Reuters suggest that former security chief Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was ousted as vice-president this month, has been mapping out a post-Mugabe vision with the military and opposition for more than a year.
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Zimbabwe's army mounts a coup against Robert Mugabe Law & Politics |
Few Zimbabweans relish the idea of the army replacing one blood-soaked tyrant with another. “It’s a horrible little country,” lamented one leading opposition politician, just hours before the coup. After 37 years of Mr Mugabe’s rule, the country’s citizens deserve a chance to choose their leaders, freely and fairly.
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A Strongman Nicknamed 'Crocodile' Is Poised to Replace Mugabe NYT Law & Politics |
The son of farmers, he was a hardened freedom fighter by 16, trained as a lawyer and rose to become chief of his new country’s fearsome intelligence service. Known as the “Crocodile,” he once explained the nickname by saying: “It strikes at the appropriate time.”
Emmerson Mnangagwa, the vice president of Zimbabwe until he was fired last week, now stands to become its new leader, after the military took President Robert Mugabe into custody early Wednesday morning and plunged the southern African nation into uncertainty.
What role Mr. Mnangagwa, 75, played in what appears to have been a coup by his military allies is not yet known, but officials and observers of his rise to power say he shares some of Mr. Mugabe’s traits: He is power-hungry, corrupt and a master of repression.
“His ruthlessness is legion,” said Peter Fabricius, a South African journalist and one of many observers who fear that Zimbabwe is exchanging one strongman for another.
There is also fear about his association with some of the Mugabe era’s low points: Mr. Mnangagwa was accused of orchestrating a crackdown in the 1980s in which thousands of members of the Ndebele ethnic group were killed. He was an avid supporter of Mr. Mugabe’s most controversial economic policy — the expropriation and redistribution of land that had been controlled by white farmers since the era of colonialism. He was also accused of being behind deadly violence in 2008 a bid to rig polls in favor of Mr. Mugabe, a claim he denies.
“There is a healthy dose of trepidation because they know that the man who might take over is not Mr. Democracy,” said Wilf Mbanga, editor of The Zimbabwean, an online newspaper. “His track record is not impressive. He’s got a messy past. Is he going to clean his act? We don’t know.”
While in charge of the Central Intelligence Organization in the mid-1980s, Mr. Mnangagwa was accused of orchestrating a brutal campaign known as Gukurahundi — “the early rain that washes away the chaff before the spring rain” — in which thousands of political opponents and civilians from the Ndebele ethnic group were killed, a claim that he has denied. He has been a central node in the web of relationships that connect the army, the intelligence agencies and the governing party.
“A crocodile patiently waits for his target, pretending to be a rock,” he said. “At times you think he doesn’t react, or doesn’t have any solution to what is happening. He doesn’t show irritation until the optimal moment and then he strikes. And when he does, he doesn’t miss his target.”
“Everyone who gets into politics knows that the moment you join you don’t join to be the last name, you join with the hope that you’ll come out first,” he added. Regarding the latest developments, after a long career, Mr. Mnangagwa “has been patient for a very long time.”
As his commander, Mr. Matemadanda said Mr. Mnangagwa was “one of the most polite, tolerant, very down-to-earth persons that I have ever met.”
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Saudi authorities offer freedom deals to princes and businessmen @FT Law & Politics |
Saudi authorities are negotiating settlements with princes and businessmen held over allegations of corruption, offering deals for the detainees to pay for their freedom, say people briefed on the discussions.
In some cases the government is seeking to appropriate as much as 70 per cent of suspects’ wealth, two of the people said, in a bid to channel hundreds of billions of dollars into depleted state coffers.
The arrangements, which have already seen some assets and funds handed over to the state, provide an insight into the strategy behind Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s dramatic corruption purge.
Some of the suspects, many of whom have been detained at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh since last week, are keen to secure their release by signing over cash and corporate assets, say people close to the negotiations.
“They are making settlements with most of those in the Ritz,” said one adviser. “Cough up the cash and you will go home.”
Conclusions
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Russia, Turkey, Iran meeting to discuss Syria strategy Law & Politics |
In a historic development, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be hosting his Turkish and Iranian counterparts – Recep Erdogan and Hassan Rouhani – at a trilateral summit on November 22 in Sochi.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the Russian Defence Ministry openly alleged that the US military is impeding Russian air attacks on ISIS targets on the Syrian-Iraqi border and is indirectly enabling the terrorists to regroup. The Pentagon called it a Russian “lie.” At any rate, the very next day, six Russian Tupolov long-range bombers flew from bases in Russia via Iranian and Iraqi airspace to vanquish those ISIS targets in a massive air strike.
Both Turkey and Iran estimate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s seemingly irrational behavior has a pattern. They suspect a script was worked out by Israel and the Trump administration with the objective of creating quagmires for Ankara and Tehran.
Earlier this week, Erdogan openly ridiculed the crown prince from an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) platform and questioned whether he was qualified to differentiate “moderate Islam” from the extremist form. The simmering discord between the erstwhile Caliph and the Custodian of the Holy Places who succeeded him (on the debris of the Ottoman Empire) surged into view. Equally, Iran can see that the Saudis are encouraging Israel to attack Lebanon. In fact, Rouhani openly spoke about it on Wednesday.
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The capture of a 32-year-old wannabe king and the future price of crude oil Law & Politics |
The then 30-year-old crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohamed bin Salman MBS, who is expected to ascend to the throne as early as this week, arrived on the scene and immediately launched an unwinnable war in Yemen. President Assad, with his Russian, Iranian and Lebanese allies, resisted the regime changers in Syria. IS, which was a Sunni and Saudi blade, has been eviscerated. Iraq, which was once firmly in the Saudi camp, is now aligned with Iran completely. Qatar is lost (see the intercept article which refers to a plan headlined “Control the yield curve, decide the future” a plan to construct the ‘’Big Short’’ on Qatar - The crown prince of Abu Dhabi should have spoken to me because I could have told them how to do it). Saudi Arabia and its allies UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait are caught in an ever tightening Shia pincer. The paranoia in the palaces in Saudi Arabia is real and existential. And what is also clear is that Bibi Netanyahu, MBS [the crown prince of Abu Dhabi], Jared Kushner and a Trump carte blanche have all leveraged this existential paranoia to effect not a state capture but a kingdom capture. The Guptas were a precursor for this particular capture.
The existential paranoia in the head of 32-year-old wannabe King is evidenced in this comment about Iran in May this year, “How can I communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival of al-Mahdi al-Montazar?”
Last week after being coached into the early hours by Ivanka Trump’s husband, Jared Kushner, MBS launched his night of the long knives, which, according to the veteran Journalist Robert Fisk, and I quote:
‘’When Saad Hariri’s jet touched down at Riyadh on the evening of 3 November, the first thing he saw was a group of Saudi policemen surrounding the plane. When they came aboard, they confiscated his mobile phone and those of his bodyguards. us was Lebanon’s prime minister silenced’’
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Mo Ibrahim: 'It is the head of the fish that goes rotten first' @FT Law & Politics |
Mr Ibrahim sees himself as more of an activist than a philanthropist and, as such, while he sees challenges in Africa, he is not deterred by them.
“I’m trying to change things,” he says. “Because unless we change the way we run our countries, govern our people, allocate resources and create a fairer system that is more transparent, we really cannot move forward.”
Other philanthropists should do the same, he adds. “It’s unacceptable to turn your back and say you don’t care.”
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Walmart shares leave their 50-day moving average in the dust @business International Trade |
The post-earnings rally in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. drove shares to the highest price ever relative to a key support level. They sold for as much as $99.68, about $15.17 more than the 50-day moving average. The stock has historically cleaved closely to that line, with the spread averaging 25 cents over the past five years. The world’s largest retailer gained momentum Thursday, surging as much as 11 percent to a record after reporting earnings that analysts said show it’s successfully fending off challenges from the likes of Amazon.com Inc., Lidl Ltd. and Aldi Stores Inc.
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The largest known fancy intense pink diamond went unsold at Sotheby's in Geneva on Wednesday @Luxury Commodities |
The largest known fancy intense pink diamond went unsold at Sotheby’s in Geneva on Wednesday amid jitters in the market for precious stones.
The Raj Pink, a 37-carat stone set in a ring, was discovered in 2015 in South Africa. Sotheby’s had estimated its value as high as $30 million. Other lots unsold in the auction included a vivid blue diamond ring estimated at as much as $18 million and two yellow diamonds worth as much as $14 million.
Christie’s sold a flawless 163-carat clear diamond for $34 million in the Swiss city Tuesday night, a price that some observers called low.
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The ratings firm upgraded India to Baa2 from Baa3 Emerging Markets |
Moody’s Investors Service raised India’s sovereign bond rating for the first time since 2004, citing continued progress in economic and institutional reforms.
The ratings firm upgraded India to Baa2 from Baa3 and said reforms being pushed through by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will help stabilize rising levels of debt. That’s a shift from Moody’s lowest investment-grade ranking to the second lowest.
The surprise move comes even as India surrendered its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy amid sweeping policy change. Growth slipped below 6 percent in the April-June quarter, sparking expectations that the government will need to unleash fiscal stimulus.
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Gustu is a social experiment that doubles as a restaurant.Source: TripAdvisor Emerging Markets |
While Peru’s food is much in vogue, neighboring Bolivia has yet to rise to the level of dining destination. Gustu is worth considering, both for the quality of the cooking and for the importance of its mission of educating disadvantaged young people and supporting the country's farmers. The ingredients are sourced from farms across Bolivia, and a school is attached to the restaurant. The dishes may be unfamiliar: You might find yourself eating raw lama with salty capers from Tarija, washed down with Bolivian wine. Gustu was opened in 2013 by Claus Meyer, co-founder of Noma, who installed Danish chef Kamilla Seidler to run the kitchen. While it is a social experiment, it's also a place with very interesting food.
Frontier Markets
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South Sudan leaders should be taken to ICC over war atrocities: al-Bashir Sudan Tribune Africa |
Sudanese President Omer al-Bashir Wednesday said leaders of South Sudan should be brought to trial before the International Criminal Court (ICC) for atrocities committed during the civil war.
South Sudan, which separated from Sudan after a referendum on self-determination in 2011, plunged into civil war in December 2013.Thousands of civilians were killed and over millions have been displaced.
Speaking before student crowd in Khartoum on Monday, al-Bashir said: “there is nothing in the world like the ongoing death, destruction, displacement and identity-based killing in South Sudan and it is worth bringing the South leaders before the ICC”.
He accused the Western countries of colluding to separate South Sudan, saying they “should have taken all South Sudan leaders, not us, to the ICC”.
The ICC issued two arrest warrants against al-Bashir in 2009 and 2010 for alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide committed in Darfur.
He is the first sitting head of state charged by the Hague-based court since its inception in 2002.
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@KenyaAirways reports H1 2017 Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 5.30 Total Shares Issued: 1496469035.00 Market Capitalization: 7,931,285,886 EPS: -6.82 PE: -0.777
Kenya Airways HY 2017 Results through 30th September 2017 vs. 30th September 2016 HY Revenue 54.518b vs. 54.748b -0.420% HY Operating costs [53.075b] vs. [53.799b] -1.346% HY Operating profit 1.443b vs. 949m +52.055% HY Operating margin 2.65% vs. 1.73% +0.920% HY Other costs [5.212b] vs. [5.675b] -8.159% HY Loss before income tax [3.769b] vs. [4.726b] -20.250% HY Loss after tax [3.802b] vs. [4.783b] -20.510% HY Total comprehensive loss for the year [3.212b] vs. [3.238b] -0.803% HY Loss per share [2.54] vs. [3.20] -20.625% Total assets 142.012b Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 6.986b vs. 12.425b -43.775%
Company Commentary
Financial Highlights Operating profit up 52% to 1.443b Fleet costs lower by 21.9% Overheads decreased by 8.9% Loss after Tax reduced by 20.5% to 3.8b versus 4.78b
Conclusions
Improved results, better optimised balance sheet should afford some oxygen but its a long haul back to Par.
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.@SafaricomLtd launched their Masoko e-commerce platform. E-commerce has exploded. Kenyan Economy |
It’s made @JeffBezos of @amazon the richest man on the planet and Jack Ma cannot be far behind. E-commerce is going to be a very big thing and Safaricom have all the levers with which to secure a leader- ship position in this space. eir Mpesa agents can double up as delivery points, for example.
.@SafaricomLtd is just 5.6% below a record closing high reached at the end of the August and we will see that record taken out ahead of year End share data here
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21-AUG-2017 :: @KenGenKenya Powering Kenya to the Future @TheStarKenya Kenyan Economy |
A key driver of share price performance is the supply versus demand dynamic. Clearly, those 351.21m shares weighed heavy on the share price and we saw the price dip below the rights issue price of 6.55. In February this year, KenGen announced that those 351.21m shares had been placed with PIC SA [Public Investment Corporation SOC Limited, acting in its capacity as the authorised representative of the government employees pension fund, a South African based institutional investor]. This was the final condition precedent for the share price to get motoring. PIC SA single-handedly, inverted the supply versus demand dynamic. They extinguished the surplus supply of shares and then started a mopping up operation. PIC SA exhibited a style of investing which is actually very similar to the style deployed by the sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett.
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