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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

Political Reflections

Conclusions

Its in fact a famous Victory and Assad has plenty to give thanks for.

Putin fancies himself the fly-catcher and syria the fly-trap. The
speed of execution confirms that Russia is once again a geopolitical
actor that will have to be considered. It is a breath-taking rebound.

الرئيسان #الأسد و #بوتين التقيا مجموعة من كبار الضباط الروس الذين
شاركوا في دعم الجيش العربي السوري
في حربه على الإرهاب..

1. Within 72 hours at dif levels #Moscow had contacts w #Turkey,
#Iran, #Qatar, #UAE (Deputy FM Bogdanov was there Nov.20 to talk w Abu
Dhabi Crown Prince).Conversation w some were "deeper"that w others but
idea to engage everyone.

2. #Asssad's visit was "cherry on the top" of this efforts. Having
face-to-face conversation w him was key to (1) coordinate on the next
steps (2) get his own feedback/views on #Russia/n initiatives (i.e.
Syrian National Congress) (3) ensure he doesn't upset them

’When Saad Hariri’s jet touched down at Riyadh on the evening of 3
November, the first thing he saw was a group of Saudi policemen
surrounding the plane. When they came aboard, they confiscated his
mobile phone and those of his bodyguards. Thus was Lebanon’s prime
minister silenced’’

There’s a primal scene. It takes place in neither green Eden, where
the snake spoke sweetly, nor the master bedroom of your first house,
the one by the railroad tracks, where, spying from a closet, you
watched your parents in flagrante delicto, but at the Fontainebleau,
on Miami Beach, where Sam Giancana talked Castro with the C.I.A.,
Jerry Lewis got into all kinds of mischief in The Bellboy, and Tony
Montana scoped bikinis on the pool deck. If you’re a Jew of a certain
vintage, the Fontainebleau means swank. It’s the fantasy showroom of
the American Dream.

International Markets

Euro 1.1739
Dollar Index 93.92
Japan Yen 112.21
Swiss Franc 0.9905
Pound 1.3254
Aussie 0.7567
India Rupee 64.815
South Korea Won 1090.65
Brazil Real 3.2586
Egypt Pound 17.6575
South Africa Rand 13.9883

Mike Novogratz, who is starting a $500 million hedge fund to invest in
cryptocurrencies, said bitcoin will likely end the year at $10,000 and
smaller rival ether will trade around $500.

Commodities

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

Sub Saharan Africa

•The military intervened
•His party fired him
•Zimbabweans marched against him
•His Cabinet snubbed him
•Parliament is impeaching him
But still Mugabe seems to be living in a bubble. It's untenable. The
man needs to be saved from himself.

Emmerson Mnangagwa, who fled the southern African nation two weeks ago
after Mr Mugabe fired him as vice-president at the urging of his wife,
Grace Mugabe, said he feared for his safety. He urged the president to
“accept the will of the people and resign” in the face of mass
protests.

The leader of Zimbabwe's opposition party, MDC-T, Morgan Tsvangirai,
has asked for free and fair elections without violence. Tsvangirai
addressed thousands of protesters gathered outside the Zimbabwean
Parliament in Harare.

What is clear is that Zimbabwe is entering a New Normal and that in
the medium term Zimbabwe has the potential to be one of the fastest
growing economies in Africa. The People want to grab that opportunity
with both hands. If Zanu-PF want to be part of that new more
optimistic Future they need to invite the Opposition into Government,
look for a big cash Boost from the international Community in order to
stabilise the ‘’now’’

Tsvangirai: “It would be unfortunate if Mnangagwa were to extend the
same governance culture that #Mugabe pursued over the past 37 years.
But it’s possible. Birds of the same feather flock together.”

Investors dumped Zimbabwean stocks every day since the military seized
power on optimism that 93-year-old President Robert Mugabe will be
forced to step down.

The stocks, which are denominated in U.S. dollars and were used to
hedge against rising inflation, fell another 10 percent on Tuesday,
bringing the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Industrial Index’s retreat since
the army’s takeover on the morning of Nov. 15 to 35 percent.

The bourse’s market capitalization has plunged $5.9 billion in that
period to $9.9 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and
the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange.

ANGOL 7% 16-AUG-2019
Mid Price 102.875
Yield : 3.99%
Total Return (YTD) : 5.9%
Total Return (12 months) : 9.0%

ANGOL 9.5% 12-NOV-2025
Mid Price : 111.500
Yield : 7.55%
Total Return (YTD) : 23.8%
Total Return (12 Months) : 30.3%

2017 has been a tough year for Africa’s strongmen: Yahya Jammeh was
kicked out, José Eduardo dos Santos stepped down, and Robert Mugabe
was pushed off. And there’s still six weeks to go.

During the Arab Spring [now in the bleak mid-Winter], nearly all
commentators spoke of how this North African wildfire could not leap
the Sahara and head to sub-Saharan Africa. The reasons were that the
State [incumbents] had a monopoly on the tools of violence and would
bring overwhelming force and violence to bear.

We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone
cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another
point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where
that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina
Faso achieved escape velocity. Overthrowing incumbents is all about
acceleration, momentum and speed best characterised by the Ger- man
word ‘Blitzkrieg’.

Out of a population of 17 million people in Burkina Faso, over 60 per
cent are aged between 17 and 24 years, according to the World Bank,
and this is another point to note. The country’s youth flexed their
muscles. What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very
connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a
‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a
demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium
between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

Kenya

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           26.75
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,071,750,199,000
EPS:             1.21

Par Value:                  1/25
Closing Price:           25.50
Total Shares Issued:          32157000.00
Market Capitalization:        820,003,500
EPS:             0.56
PE:                 45.536

HY Revenue 44.692m vs. 72.677m -38.506%
HY Fair value gain/[Loss] on biological assets 5.192m vs. [30.240m] +117.169%
HY Cost of production [57.598m] vs. [40.525m] -42.130%
HY Gross [loss]/ profit [7.714m] vs. 1.911m -503.663%
HY Loss before taxation [21.383m] vs. [11.668m] -83.262%
HY Loss for the period [20.536m] vs. [7.675m] -167.570%
Basic and diluted loss per share [0.64] vs. [0.24] -166.667%
Equity 830.049m vs. 684.258m +21.306%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 3.596m vs. 3.592m +0.111%
No interim dividend

Company Commentary

During the 6 month period under review, the Company made an after tax
loss of 20.5m as compared to an after tax loss of 7.6m in the previous
year. This is principally due to the prolonged dry weather which has
resulted to reduced crop and increased coffee upkeep cost.
Due to the turbulence in the international coffee prices, there was a
significant decrease in coffee sales revenues due to lower coffee
volumes and a decrease in the market prices of coffee in the period.
No interim dividend.

Conclusions

Soft, real soft.

The Turkish Lira is getting slaughtered and is hitting record lows
every day. This is the time to visit Istanbul, which is a spectacular
City to visit.
Brent Crude is trading +0.92% and is at a 2 Year High. I expect Brent
to push higher towards $70.00 a barrel.
The Geopolitical Risk component of the Oil Price is being repriced
higher and a 32 Year Old wannabe King refers.
The seismic geopolitical news on the African Continent was the
resignation in Zimbabwe of President Robert Gabriel Mugabe.
The sense of elation on the streets of Harare is profound. Everyone
dancing, embracing, shouting "We are free! Free at last!"  via
@Zoe_Flood
What is clear to me and I wrote about it in my Monday Article
''What is clear is that Zimbabwe is entering a New Normal and that in
the medium term Zimbabwe has the potential to be one of the fastest
growing economies in Africa. The People want to grab that opportunity
with both hands. If Zanu-PF want to be part of that new more
optimistic Future they need to invite the Opposition into Government,
look for a big cash Boost from the international Community in order to
stabilise the ‘’now’’''
The Nairobi All Share which surged +3.151% Tuesday posting its single
largest % gain for 30 months followed on with a further +2.317% ramp
higher to close at 172.17
The Nairobi NSE 20 rallied 21.69 points to close at 3839.46.
Equity Turnover topped a billion to clock 1.025b which verifies the bull thrust.

Eaagads Ltd. reported H1 2017 Earnings where the Loss after Tax
expanded 167.57% to -20.536m on the back of a -38.506% slump in H1
Revenue. The Company said that the sharply wider loss was
''principally due to the prolonged dry weather which has resulted to
reduced crop and increased coffee upkeep cost'' The Company added
''Due to the turbulence in the international coffee prices, there was
a significant decrease in coffee sales revenues due to lower coffee
volumes and a decrease in the market prices of coffee in the period''
Eaagads carries a market Cap of $8m and You don't have to be a rocket
scientist to work out the NAV is considerably higher.

Safaricom was the most actively traded share at the Securities
Exchange and surged +4.67% to close at a Fresh Record closing High of
28.00 and traded 16.463m shares. Safaricom has ramped +8.73% higher
over 2 trading sessions and the violence of the move is the Signal in
the Noise. Safaricom has now served up a mouth-watering +51.27% Total
Return in 2017 and is now just 12.5% away from my Year End Target of
32.00. The NASA Boycott Strategy was counter-intuitively a Buy Signal
like the day Raila Odinga held a Press Conference with the Foreign
Correspondents Association of East Africa about the Eurobond which was
also a Buy Signal because the Eurobond then embarked on a 100 basis
points rally. Safaricom as launched its E-Commerce Platform Masoko and
this was the latest positive Price trigger. The next Trigger will be a
Foray beyond our borders.

Nation Media Group traded 428,700 shares worth 49.729m all at 116.00 unchanged.

Equity Bank rallied +1.76% to close at 43.25 a Fresh 11 week high and
was trading at session highs of 44.50 +4.71% at the finale. Equity
Bank traded 3.48m shares and Buyers outpaced sellers by a factor of
2.5 to 1. Equity is +50.833% in 2017 on a Total Return Basis and
trades on a Trailing PE of 9.87.
KCB Group firmed +1.16% to close at 43.75 a Fresh 11 week high. KCB
traded 2.846m shares. KCB is +66.08% in 2017 on a Total Return Basis
and trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of 6.77.
DTB Bank closed +1.57% firmer at 193.00 and traded 11,700 shares.
200.00 is a Shoe-In.

Jubilee Insurance trended +2.63% higher to close at 467.00 on light trading.

KenGen firmed +0.56% to close at 8.90 and was trading at session highs
of 9.05 +2.26% at the closing bell, on the day of its AGM held today
at Kasarani. KenGen is +53.44% in 2017 and has space to probe the
upside up to 10.00. KenGen had 4.5 Buyers for every Seller signalling
further upside traction.

EABL closed unchanged at 238.00 and traded 266,100 shares.