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Thursday 23rd of November 2017 |
Morning Africa |
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
Macro Thoughts |
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Saudi graft suspects are starting payments for their freedom, sources say Africa |
The payments, less than a month since the detentions, show the speed at which Saudi Arabia wants to settle the corruption probe that involved the sudden arrests of royals and billionaires such as Prince Alwaleed bin Talal this month. The purge -- while welcomed by some in Saudi Arabia -- has also stirred political uncertainty in the kingdom at a time when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is seeking to attract international investment.
The government’s Center for International Communication didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Authorities estimate they may be able to recover between $50 billion and $100 billion from settlement agreements with suspects, a senior official said this week. Suspects are being offered settlements to avoid trial, the Saudi official said. If they accept, talks are held with a special committee to work out the details. Payments are based on the amounts authorities believe suspects have amassed illegally, not their entire wealth, the official said.
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13-NOV-2017 :: We could witness a massive $1 trillion dollar disgorge right here Africa |
MBS’s newly minted Anti-Corruption commission detained 11 House of Saud princes, four current ministers and dozens of former princes/cabinet secretaries – all charged with corruption. Bank accounts were frozen [We could witness a massive $1 trillion dollar disgorge right here], private jets grounded. The high-profile Princely crew is jailed at the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton and the gates are now shut, the phone line is perpetually busy and you can’t book a room until Feb. 1. Fisk concludes ‘’Put bluntly, he is clawing down all his rivals.’’
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Prince Alwaleed was hung upside down 'just to send a message' @MailOnline Africa |
Saudi princes and billionaire businessmen arrested in a power grab earlier this month are being strung up by their feet and beaten by American private security contractors, a source in the country tells DailyMail.com. 'They are beating them, torturing them, slapping them, insulting them. They want to break them down,' the source told DailyMail.com. The Saudi crown prince, according to the source, has also confiscated more than $194 billion from the bank accounts and seized assets of those arrested. 'All the guards in charge are private security because MBS (Mohammed Bin Salman) doesn't want Saudi officers there who have been saluting those detainees all their lives,' said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. 'Outside the hotels where they are being detained you see the armored vehicles of the Saudi special forces. But inside, it's a private security company. 'They've transferred all the guys from Abu Dhabi. Now they are in charge of everything,' said the source. The source said that Salman, often referred to by his initials MBS, is conducting some of the interrogations himself. 'When it's something big he asks them questions,' the source said. 'He speaks to them very nicely in the interrogation, and then he leaves the room, and the mercenaries go in. The prisoners are slapped, insulted, hung up, tortured.'
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Putin Sees 'Real Chance' to End Syria War at Talks With Iran and Turkey @business Law & Politics |
Russian President Vladimir Putin said there’s a “real chance” to end the 6 1/2 year civil war in Syria as he secured backing from his Turkish and Iranian counterparts for a peace initiative that’s likely to keep his ally Bashar al-Assad in power.
Putin’s summit talks with Iran’s Hassan Rouhani and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Wednesday came just two days after he hosted Assad in a surprise visit. The Russian leader also spoke to U.S. President Donald Trump and leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt as the Kremlin rallies international support for its diplomatic drive.
“The militants in Syria have been dealt a decisive blow and a real chance has appeared to bring an end to many years of civil war,” Putin said, adding that a political settlement in Syria is now the “strategic task.” The three leaders discussed Assad’s commitment to a political process including a new constitution and the holding of free and fair parliamentary and presidential elections, Putin said.
Conclusions
25 months start to finish
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Mnangagwa's Task: Rebuild Zimbabwe's Economy From the Ground Up Law & Politics |
When Emmerson Mnangagwa takes over from Robert Mugabe as Zimbabwe’s president on Friday, he’ll inherit an economic wasteland that will take years and a complete reversal of some of the government’s signature policies to set right.
Among Mnangagwa’s key challenges will be to revive an agricultural industry that collapsed following the Mugabe-sanctioned seizure of mostly white-owned commercial farms starting in 2000, unlock investment in the mining industry by clarifying so-called indigenization laws that force companies to sell or transfer 51 percent stakes to black Zimbabweans and reestablish international credit lines.
“The quicker policy credibility is established, the more foreign capital starts flowing,” said Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Exotix Capital in Dubai. “Many of the ingredients of a great frontier market are in place in Zimbabwe. While there is much to be done on the government wage bill, recapitalization of the economy and the banking system, the starting point for investor expectations is very low.”
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At times he broke down, calling for his first wife, Sally, who died of cancer in 1992 Law & Politics |
At times he broke down, calling for his first wife, Sally, who died of cancer in 1992, and his son Nhamodzenyika, who died aged three from cerebral malaria in 1966, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The Jesuit priest assisting him during the discussions had to remind Mugabe to eat and bathe, they said. Grace, a bold public presence over the last few years, was out of sight.
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November 2014 "After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring". Law & Politics |
Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.
During the Arab Spring [now in the bleak mid-Winter], nearly all commentators spoke of how this North African wildfire could not leap the Sahara and head to sub-Saharan Africa. The reasons were that the State [incumbents] had a monopoly on the tools of violence and would bring overwhelming force and violence to bear.
We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
Out of a population of 17 million people in Burkina Faso, over 60 per cent are aged between 17 and 24 years, according to the World Bank, and this is another point to note. The country’s youth flexed their muscles. What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.
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Dollar dumped, bonds buoyant on Fed inflation caution Reuters International Trade |
The dollar’s rout came after minutes of the Fed’s last meeting showed “many participants” were concerned inflation would stay below the bank’s 2 percent target for longer than expected.
That echoed comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that she was uncertain about the outlook for inflation and led markets to pare back pricing for more hikes next year.
While a move in December to between 1.25 and 1.5 percent is still almost fully priced in, Fed fund futures <0#FF:> rallied to show rates at just 1.75 percent by the end of next year.
“The US dollar was already staggering into Thanksgiving when the FOMC minutes gave it another shove,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency analyst at Westpac. “The FOMC seems to be increasingly uneasy about ”ongoing softness“ in inflation.”
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.1830 The euro was enjoying the view at $1.1834 EUR= after climbing from $1.1731 on Wednesday Dollar Index 93.23 Japan Yen 111.21 The dollar also crumbled to 111.27 yen JPY=, near its lowest since Sept. 20. The overnight move was the largest single-day fall against the yen since May. Swiss Franc 0.9815 Pound 1.3310 Aussie 0.7620 India Rupee 64.785 South Korea Won 1085.43 Brazil Real 3.2242 Egypt Pound 17.7153 South Africa Rand 13.8646
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Call to prosecute Angola ex-President Jose Eduardo dos Santos Africa |
Angolan ruling MPLA party veteran and historian Ambrósio Lukoki wants former President José Eduardo dos Santos prosecuted.
Mr Lukoki, currently the Angolan ambassador to Tanzania, also wants the former ruler to resign from the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola leadership immediately.
Mr dos Santos had in March 2016, indicated he would quit politics in 2018.
Mr Lukoki said at a press conference in Luanda on Tuesday that Mr dos Santos was hiding behind the MPLA leadership to avoid prosecution for the numerous crimes associated with his 38-year rule.
"It is convenient that José Eduardo dos Santos immediately resigns from the MPLA post so that President João Lourenço can operate unhindered," said Mr Lukoki.
Conclusions
Vow. The Speed of the Dos Santos unravelling. Lourenco is burning the ground under his Feet.
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One-month dollar-rand implied volatility soared to the highest in two years on Wednesday Africa |
One-month dollar-rand implied volatility soared to the highest in two years on Wednesday as traders hedged for big moves either way in the run-up to the ruling African National Congress’ leadership election in December. The premium of options to sell the rand over those to buy it -- known as the risk reversal -- has dipped, however, suggesting traders are taking some bearish bets off the table even as hedging remains skewed toward rand weakness.
Reports that Cyril Ramaphosa, seen as the more market-friendly candidate, is leading the race to take over as ANC leader from President Jacob Zuma have buoyed the rand. A win for Ramaphosa would be “hugely market-positive,” while a victory for Zuma’s ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the other main contender, would weaken the rand, according to Societe Generale SA.
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#Ethiopia bets on clothes to fashion industrial future Africa |
There has been some progress; foreign investment in the textile industry has risen from 4.5 billion birr ($166.5 million) in 2013/14 to 36.8 billion in 2016/17, the Ethiopian Investment Commission, a government agency, told Reuters.
“This is a huge success,” Arkebe Oqubay, a prime ministerial adviser directing the industrialisation drive, said during the inauguration of an industry park in the northern Ethiopian town of Kombolcha this summer. “The challenge now is to bring the world’s biggest companies into the country.”
Some have already arrived, most of them sourcing some production locally, like Gap and H&M, but a few building factories themselves.
Those to set up factories this year include U.S. fashion giant PVH, whose brands include Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger; Dubai-based Velocity Apparelz Companies, which supplies Levi‘s, Zara and Under Armour; and China‘s Jiangsu Sunshine Group, whose customers include Giorgio Armani and Hugo Boss.
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Standing out from the herd : an economic assessment of tourism in Kenya (English) @Worldbank @ApurvaSanghi Kenyan Economy |
It suggests that tourism has diffuse and deep backward links into the economy.
The dynamic CGE simulations confirm earlier results that safari tourism dominates in terms of growth and more equitable income distribution benefits. This derives from its complementarity with agriculture, its low capital intensity, and multiple and intensive backward linkages with the rural poor.
Much of Kenyan tourism is targeted at the spectrum of the market where profit margins are low and where volumes need to be high to break even. Somewhat ambitiously, Kenya’s Vision 2030 sets a target of five million tourists — which would require a four or five- fold increase in tourist numbers.
The tourism sector, especially nature-based tourism, has played a pivotal role in shaping Kenya’s development fortunes. Tourism dominates the service sector (67 percent of the economy) and it is the third largest source of foreign exchange in the country; the World Travel Tourism Council estimates that it contributes about 10 percent of GDP, direct and indirect (as shown in Figure 3 above).
Business and conference travel is a segment with much potential.
Travelers in the premium wildlife sector spend twice as much per day than those in other segments of the market
The Kenyan tourism industry is at a crossroads and must make a strategic decision on how to develop its offerings.
According to a value chain analysis conducted by the World Travel and Tourism Council, Tanzania’s higher earnings per visitor are mostly attributable to lower congestion and its ability to attract travellers who are prepared to pay a higher price for a more authentic and exclusive wilderness experience. In other words, Tanzania caters to a segment of the market where demand is relatively price inelastic and hence it can raise more revenue per tourist than Kenya.
Of greater concern is the irreversible damage that could occur to natural habitats, which is the asset base for safari tourism.
Many of Kenya’s key tourist attractions are under pressure and showing signs of degradation. Perhaps most troubling, recent population monitoring suggests that long-term declines of many of the charismatic species that attract tourists — lions, elephants, gira e, impala, and other animals — are occurring at the same rates within the country’s national parks as outside of these protected areas.
The HVLD approach has several advantages for wildlife related tourism
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@Barclays_Kenya reports Q3 2017 EPS -12.5000% Earnings and share price data +23.076% 2017 Total Return Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 2/- Closing Price: 10.00 Total Shares Issued: 5431536000.00 Market Capitalization: 54,315,360,000 EPS: 1.36 PE: 7.353
Barclays Bank of Kenya Q3 2017 results through 30th September 2017 vs. 30th September 2016
Q3 Kenya Government Securities Available for Sale 57.609641b vs. 56.700690b +1.603% Q3 Loans and advances to customers (net) 167.249182b vs. 158.843058b +5.292% Q3 Total assets 277.969828b vs. 264.003131b +5.290% Q3 Customers’ deposits 200.370484b vs. 180.862520b +10.786% Q3 Total shareholders’ funds 42.543436b vs. 41.465431b +2.600% Q3 Total Interest income 20.130246b vs. 21.105494b -4.621% Q3 Total interest expenses [3.981122b] vs. [4.248975b] -6.304% Q3 Net Interest income 16.149124b vs. 16.856519b -4.197% Q3 FX trading income 2.162924b vs. 1.951827b +10.815% Q3 Total non-interest income 6.455628b vs. 7.581338b -14.848% Q3 Total operating income 22.604752b vs. 24.437857b -7.501% Q3 Loan loss provision [2.332967b] vs. [3.136135b] -25.610% Q3 Staff costs [8.100735b] vs. [7.374329b] +9.850% Q3 Total operating expenses [14.894995b] vs. [15.723612b] -5.270% Q3 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 7.709757b vs. 8.714245b -11.527% Q3 Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 5.329914b vs. 6.059777b -12.044% EPS 0.98 vs. 1.12 -12.500% Total NPL and Advances 8.908186b vs. 7.778507b +14.523% Net NPL and Advances 3.549015b vs. 3.199936b +10.909% Liquidity ratio 38.0% vs. 34.5% +3.500%
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@nicbankkenya reports Q3 2017 EPS -1.33% Earnings here share price data +47.11% Total Return 2017 Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 36.75 Total Shares Issued: 639945603.00 Market Capitalization: 23,518,000,910 EPS: 6.77 PE: 5.428
NIC Group PLC Q3 2017 results through 30th September 2017 vs. 30th September 2016 Q3 Kenya Government Securities Available for Sale 28.514695b vs. 21.603776b +31.989% Q3 Loans and advances to customers (net) 118.552625b vs. 110.470843b +7.316% Q3 Total assets 195.695037b vs. 165.269478b +20.599% Q3 Customers’ deposits 131.429568b vs. 108.358276b +18.410% Q3 Total shareholders’ funds 33.874551b vs. 29.551617b +14.628% Q3 Total Interest income 13.490499b vs. 14.726056b -8.390% Q3 Total interest expenses [5.453606b] vs. [5.329562b] +2.327% Q3 Net Interest income 8.036893b vs. 9.396494b -14.469% Q3 Total non-interest income 3.161650b vs. 3.073669b +2.862% Q3 Total operating income 11.198543b vs. 12.470163b +2.862% Q3 Loan loss provision [2.144632b] vs. [3.195596b] -32.888% Q3 Staff costs [2.387267b] vs. [2.247696b] +6.210% Q3 Total operating expenses [6.807197b] vs. [7.730902b] -11.819% Q3 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 4.391346b vs. 4.739261b -7.341% Q3 Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 3.319373b vs. 3.363906b -1.324% Basic and diluted EPS 5.19 vs. 5.26 -1.33% Gross NPL and Advances 14.702521b vs. 14.251802b +3.163% Net NPL and Advances 7.634582b vs. 8.597233b -11.197% Liquidity ratio 44.62% vs. 34.03% +10.590%
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N.S.E Today |
The Dollar has been routed over the last few trading sessions. The dollar’s rout came after minutes of the Fed’s last meeting showed “many participants” were concerned inflation would stay below the bank’s 2 percent target for longer than expected. “The US dollar was already staggering into Thanksgiving when the FOMC minutes gave it another shove,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency analyst at Westpac. “ The FOMC seems to be increasingly uneasy about ”ongoing softness“ in inflation.” So it appears as if Powell is a little Pussy Cat. U.S. crude futures CLc1 eased back 12 cents to $57.90 a barrel, after jumping 2 percent on Wednesday to ground last trod in mid-2015 Venezuela’s annual inflation rate soared to 4114% a new all time high In his first public speech, incoming leader Emmerson Mnangagwa says Zimbabwe is witnessing a "new and unfolding democracy" Zimbabwe is at an inflexion point and a ZANU-PF ''snake'' strategy [shedding its skin but still remaining the same] has a 0 chance of success. What is clear is that Zimbabwe is entering a New Normal and that in the medium term Zimbabwe has the potential to be one of the fastest growing economies in Africa. The People want to grab that opportunity with both hands. If Zanu-PF want to be part of that new more optimistic Future they need to invite the Opposition into Government, look for a big cash Boost from the international Community in order to stabilise the ‘’now’’ South Africa faces a triple witching hour Friday when the ratings agencies will decide if Local ZAR bonds stay one notch above junk or if they will downgrade. The Nairobi All Share which had surged +5.542% over the previous 2 sessions and since the Supreme Court Guillotine corrected 4.27 points to close at 167.90 The Nairobi NSE20 eased -12.69 points to close at 3826.76. Equity Turnover was 839.269m.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom which had ramped +8.73% higher over the previous two trading sessions and topped fresh record closing Highs, met some profit taking pressure today and corrected -5.35% to close at 26.50 on trading volume of 16.339m shares worth 436.234m. Safaricom remains in a relentless multi-year Bull Channel and a strategy of buying the dip has worked like a peach for years. I ad a Price Target of 32.00 at the beginning of the year and I expect a 32.00 print before year End.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Barclays Kenya reported Q3 2017 EPS declined -12.5000%, Q3 Loans and advances to customers (net) advanced +5.292% to 167.249182b, Q3 Total assets clocked 277.969828b +5.290%, Q3 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items retreated -11.527% and clocked 7.709757b. Barclays Kenya is +23.076% 2017 on a Total Return basis and the share trades on an undemanding Trailing PE Ratio of 7,353. Barclays Bank eased -0.5% to close at 9.95 and traded 227,700 shares. KCB Group corrected -1.14% off an 11 week closing high to close at 43.25 and traded 1.053m shares.
NIC Bank reported reports Q3 2017 EPS declined -1.33% to 5.19, Q3 Loans and advances to customers (net) advanced +7.316% to 118.552625b, Q3 Loans and advances to customers (net) advanced +7.316% to 118.552625b and Q3 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items declined -7.341% to 4.391346b. NIC Bank trades on a Trailing PE of 5.428 which is egregious given John Gachora's outstanding captaincy. NIC is outperforming its Tier 2 Peer Group by a wide margin. NIC Bank eased -0.68% to close at 36.50 and traded 159,700 shares.
Kenya Re closed unchanged at 20.50 on heavy volume action of 6.06m shares worth 124.247m. Kenya Re trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of 4.362 which is 1/3rd of the Nairobi Securities Exchange average but this has been the case for a number of years. Kenya Re is -5.33% in 2017. Jubilee Insurance traded the grand total of 100 shares at 490.00 +4.93%.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
KenGen crossed 9.00 and firmed +1.69% to close at a 6 week high of 9.05 and traded 253,700 shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 4 to 1 signalling further follow through gains.
KenolKobil crossed 15.00 and closed +1.006% stronger at 15.05 and traded 4.801m shares worth 72.611m. KenolKobil trades on a Trailing PE of 9.17 and accelerated H1 PAT 17 +19.541%.
EABL finally discovered its mojo and firmed +1.26% to close at 241.00 and traded 156,000 shares.
East African Portland Cement was upticked by the daily maximum and closed +10.00% at 27.50 and traded 1,700 shares.
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