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Macro Thoughts

His education is limited to a bachelor’s degree in Islamic Law from
King Saud University in Riyadh.

The BND dossier blamed MBS and concluded that the concentration of
economic and foreign policy power in the hands of the Deputy Crown
Prince “harbors the latent risk that in the attempt of establishing
himself as the heir of the king during his father’s lifetime he will
overplay his cards.”

The payments, less than a month since the detentions, show the speed
at which Saudi Arabia wants to settle the corruption probe that
involved the sudden arrests of royals and billionaires such as Prince
Alwaleed bin Talal this month. The purge -- while welcomed by some in
Saudi Arabia -- has also stirred political uncertainty in the kingdom
at a time when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is seeking to attract
international investment.

The government’s Center for International Communication didn’t
immediately respond to requests for comment.

Authorities estimate they may be able to recover between $50 billion
and $100 billion from settlement agreements with suspects, a senior
official said this week. Suspects are being offered settlements to
avoid trial, the Saudi official said. If they accept, talks are held
with a special committee to work out the details. Payments are based
on the amounts authorities believe suspects have amassed illegally,
not their entire wealth, the official said.

MBS’s newly minted Anti-Corruption commission detained 11 House of
Saud princes, four current ministers and dozens of former
princes/cabinet secretaries – all charged with corruption. Bank
accounts were frozen [We could witness a massive $1 trillion dollar
disgorge right here], private jets grounded. The high-profile Princely
crew is jailed at the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton and the gates are now shut,
the phone line is perpetually busy and you can’t book a room until
Feb. 1. Fisk concludes ‘’Put bluntly, he is clawing down all his
rivals.’’

Saudi princes and billionaire businessmen arrested in a power grab
earlier this month are being strung up by their feet and beaten by
American private security contractors, a source in the country tells
DailyMail.com.
'They are beating them, torturing them, slapping them, insulting them.
They want to break them down,' the source told DailyMail.com.
The Saudi crown prince, according to the source, has also confiscated
more than $194 billion from the bank accounts and seized assets of
those arrested.
'All the guards in charge are private security because MBS (Mohammed
Bin Salman) doesn't want Saudi officers there who have been saluting
those detainees all their lives,' said the source, who asked to remain
anonymous.
'Outside the hotels where they are being detained you see the armored
vehicles of the Saudi special forces. But inside, it's a private
security company.
'They've transferred all the guys from Abu Dhabi. Now they are in
charge of everything,' said the source.
The source said that Salman, often referred to by his initials MBS, is
conducting some of the interrogations himself.
'When it's something big he asks them questions,' the source said.
'He speaks to them very nicely in the interrogation, and then he
leaves the room, and the mercenaries go in. The prisoners are slapped,
insulted, hung up, tortured.'

Home Thoughts

Conclusions

Saudi Arabia and its allies UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait are caught in an ever
tightening Shia pincer. The paranoia in the palaces in Saudi Arabia is
real and existential. And what is also clear is that Bibi Netanyahu,
MBZ [the crown prince of Abu Dhabi], Jared Kushner and a Trump carte
blanche have all leveraged this existential paranoia to effect not a
state capture but a kingdom capture. The Guptas were a precursor for
this particular capture.

This is an unprecedented moment in the history of the Kingdom and the
most perilous moment for the House of Saud that I can recall. Taking
on Iran looks like will the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said there’s a “real chance” to end
the 6 1/2 year civil war in Syria as he secured backing from his
Turkish and Iranian counterparts for a peace initiative that’s likely
to keep his ally Bashar al-Assad in power.

Putin’s summit talks with Iran’s Hassan Rouhani and Turkey’s Recep
Tayyip Erdogan in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Wednesday came just
two days after he hosted Assad in a surprise visit. The Russian leader
also spoke to U.S. President Donald Trump and leaders of Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Israel and Egypt as the Kremlin rallies international support
for its diplomatic drive.

“The militants in Syria have been dealt a decisive blow and a real
chance has appeared to bring an end to many years of civil war,” Putin
said, adding that a political settlement in Syria is now the
“strategic task.” The three leaders discussed Assad’s commitment to a
political process including a new constitution and the holding of free
and fair parliamentary and presidential elections, Putin said.

Conclusions

25 months start to finish

Let us return to UNGA, where Putin set out his stall and I quote: ‘’I
cannot help asking those who have caused the situation, do you realise
now what you’ve done?’’

Putin fancies himself the fly-catcher and syria the fly-trap. The
speed of execution confirms that Russia is once again a geopolitical
actor that will have to be considered. It is a breath-taking rebound.

The cable said Zuma told Zimbabwe’s longtime leader that Mnangagwa, a
former security chief known as ‘The Crocodile’, was a “tricky
customer” with “many lives” and that by taking him on Mugabe was
“playing with big fire”.

The plot posited an interim unity government with international
blessing to allow for Zimbabwe’s re-engagement with the world after
decades of isolation from global lenders and donors.

What is clear is that Zimbabwe is entering a New Normal and that in
the medium term Zimbabwe has the potential to be one of the fastest
growing economies in Africa. The People want to grab that opportunity
with both hands. If Zanu-PF want to be part of that new more
optimistic Future they need to invite the Opposition into Government,
look for a big cash Boost from the international Community in order to
stabilise the ‘’now’’

When Emmerson Mnangagwa takes over from Robert Mugabe as Zimbabwe’s
president on Friday, he’ll inherit an economic wasteland that will
take years and a complete reversal of some of the government’s
signature policies to set right.

Among Mnangagwa’s key challenges will be to revive an agricultural
industry that collapsed following the Mugabe-sanctioned seizure of
mostly white-owned commercial farms starting in 2000, unlock
investment in the mining industry by clarifying so-called
indigenization laws that force companies to sell or transfer 51
percent stakes to black Zimbabweans and reestablish international
credit lines.

“The quicker policy credibility is established, the more foreign
capital starts flowing,” said Hasnain Malik, head of equity research
at Exotix Capital in Dubai. “Many of the ingredients of a great
frontier market are in place in Zimbabwe. While there is much to be
done on the government wage bill, recapitalization of the economy and
the banking system, the starting point for investor expectations is
very low.”

At times he broke down, calling for his first wife, Sally, who died of
cancer in 1992, and his son Nhamodzenyika, who died aged three from
cerebral malaria in 1966, according to people with knowledge of the
matter.

The Jesuit priest assisting him during the discussions had to remind
Mugabe to eat and bathe, they said. Grace, a bold public presence over
the last few years, was out of sight.

Now that the economic situation in Uganda is improving,  the
government will be able to look into raising of salaries of soldiers,
public servants, health workers and teachers and also deal with
institutional housing.

Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab
Spring, this is the Black Spring”.

During the Arab Spring [now in the bleak mid-Winter], nearly all
commentators spoke of how this North African wildfire could not leap
the Sahara and head to sub-Saharan Africa. The reasons were that the
State [incumbents] had a monopoly on the tools of violence and would
bring overwhelming force and violence to bear.

We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone
cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another
point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where
that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

Out of a population of 17 million people in Burkina Faso, over 60 per
cent are aged between 17 and 24 years, according to the World Bank,
and this is another point to note. The country’s youth flexed their
muscles. What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very
connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a
‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a
demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium
between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

The dollar’s rout came after minutes of the Fed’s last meeting showed
“many participants” were concerned inflation would stay below the
bank’s 2 percent target for longer than expected.

That echoed comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that she was
uncertain about the outlook for inflation and led markets to pare back
pricing for more hikes next year.

While a move in December to between 1.25 and 1.5 percent is still
almost fully priced in, Fed fund futures <0#FF:> rallied to show rates
at just 1.75 percent by the end of next year.

“The US dollar was already staggering into Thanksgiving when the FOMC
minutes gave it another shove,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency
analyst at Westpac. “The FOMC seems to be increasingly uneasy about
”ongoing softness“ in inflation.”

2017: 1.5% (vs 2.0% in March)
2018: 1.4% (vs 1.6%)
2019: 1.3% (vs 1.7%)
2020: 1.3% (vs 1.9%)
2021: 1.5% (vs 2.0%)

Euro 1.1830 The euro was enjoying the view at $1.1834 EUR= after
climbing from $1.1731 on Wednesday
Dollar Index 93.23
Japan Yen 111.21 The dollar also crumbled to 111.27 yen JPY=, near its
lowest since Sept. 20. The overnight move was the largest single-day
fall against the yen since May.
Swiss Franc 0.9815
Pound 1.3310
Aussie 0.7620
India Rupee 64.785
South Korea Won 1085.43
Brazil Real 3.2242
Egypt Pound 17.7153
South Africa Rand 13.8646

#Erdoganomics are a sure way to a currency crisis. #Turkey Lira
hit fresh lifetime lows this morning, cementing its place as world's
worst currency this year. via @welt
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/933252717161541633

Frontier Markets

Angolan ruling MPLA party veteran and historian Ambrósio Lukoki wants
former President José Eduardo dos Santos prosecuted.

Mr Lukoki, currently the Angolan ambassador to Tanzania, also wants
the former ruler to resign from the Popular Movement for the
Liberation of Angola leadership immediately.

Mr dos Santos had in March 2016, indicated he would quit politics in 2018.

Mr Lukoki said at a press conference in Luanda on Tuesday that Mr dos
Santos was hiding behind the MPLA leadership to avoid prosecution for
the numerous crimes associated with his 38-year rule.

"It is convenient that José Eduardo dos Santos immediately resigns
from the MPLA post so that President João Lourenço can operate
unhindered," said Mr Lukoki.

Conclusions

Vow. The Speed of the Dos Santos unravelling. Lourenco is burning the
ground under his Feet.

One-month dollar-rand implied volatility soared to the highest in two
years on Wednesday as traders hedged for big moves either way in the
run-up to the ruling African National Congress’ leadership election in
December. The premium of options to sell the rand over those to buy it
-- known as the risk reversal -- has dipped, however, suggesting
traders are taking some bearish bets off the table even as hedging
remains skewed toward rand weakness.

Reports that Cyril Ramaphosa, seen as the more market-friendly
candidate, is leading the race to take over as ANC leader from
President Jacob Zuma have buoyed the rand. A win for Ramaphosa would
be “hugely market-positive,” while a victory for Zuma’s ex-wife
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the other main contender, would weaken the
rand, according to Societe Generale SA.

Facebook Plans to Train 50,000 People in Marketing in Nigeria @zerohedge
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/933287126585823232

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg +36.22% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +51.40% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Zambia's central bank cuts lending rate to 10.25 percent
https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFKBN1DM0SP-OZABS

Maize Prices in East African Capitals @NINAYOcom
https://twitter.com/NINAYOcom/status/933274648896331776

There has been some progress; foreign investment in the textile
industry has risen from 4.5 billion birr ($166.5 million) in 2013/14
to 36.8 billion in 2016/17, the Ethiopian Investment Commission, a
government agency, told Reuters.

“This is a huge success,” Arkebe Oqubay, a prime ministerial adviser
directing the industrialisation drive, said during the inauguration of
an industry park in the northern Ethiopian town of Kombolcha this
summer. “The challenge now is to bring the world’s biggest companies
into the country.”

Some have already arrived, most of them sourcing some production
locally, like Gap and H&M, but a few building factories themselves.

Those to set up factories this year include U.S. fashion giant PVH,
whose brands include Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger; Dubai-based
Velocity Apparelz Companies, which supplies Levi‘s, Zara and Under
Armour; and China‘s Jiangsu Sunshine Group, whose customers include
Giorgio Armani and Hugo Boss.

It suggests that tourism has diffuse and deep backward links into the economy.

The dynamic CGE simulations confirm earlier results that safari
tourism dominates in terms of growth and more equitable income
distribution benefits. This derives from its complementarity with
agriculture, its low capital intensity, and multiple and intensive
backward linkages with the rural poor.

Much of Kenyan tourism is targeted at the spectrum of the market where
profit margins are low and where volumes need to be high to break
even. Somewhat ambitiously, Kenya’s Vision 2030 sets a target of five
million tourists — which would require a four or five- fold increase
in tourist numbers.

The tourism sector, especially nature-based tourism, has played a
pivotal role in shaping Kenya’s development fortunes. Tourism
dominates the service sector (67 percent of the economy) and it is the
third largest source of foreign exchange in the country; the World
Travel Tourism Council estimates that it contributes about 10 percent
of GDP, direct and indirect (as shown in Figure 3 above).

Business and conference travel is a segment with much potential.

Travelers in the premium wildlife sector spend twice as much per day
than those in other segments of the market

The Kenyan tourism industry is at a crossroads and must make a
strategic decision on how to develop its offerings.

According to a value chain analysis conducted by the World Travel and
Tourism Council, Tanzania’s higher earnings per visitor are mostly
attributable to lower congestion and its ability to attract travellers
who are prepared to pay a higher price for a more authentic and
exclusive wilderness experience. In other words, Tanzania caters to a
segment of the market where demand is relatively price inelastic and
hence it can raise more revenue per tourist than Kenya.

Of greater concern is the irreversible damage that could occur to
natural habitats, which is the asset base for safari tourism.

Many of Kenya’s key tourist attractions are under pressure and showing
signs of degradation. Perhaps most troubling, recent population
monitoring suggests that long-term declines of many of the charismatic
species that attract tourists — lions, elephants, gira e, impala, and
other animals — are occurring at the same rates within the country’s
national parks as outside of these protected areas.

The HVLD approach has several advantages for wildlife related tourism

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +29.12% 2017 [+5.542% Since Supreme Court]
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           10.00
Total Shares Issued:          5431536000.00
Market Capitalization:        54,315,360,000
EPS:             1.36
PE:                 7.353

Barclays Bank of Kenya Q3 2017 results through 30th September 2017 vs.
30th September 2016

Q3 Kenya Government Securities Available for Sale 57.609641b vs.
56.700690b +1.603%
Q3 Loans and advances to customers (net) 167.249182b vs. 158.843058b +5.292%
Q3 Total assets 277.969828b vs. 264.003131b +5.290%
Q3 Customers’ deposits 200.370484b vs. 180.862520b +10.786%
Q3 Total shareholders’ funds 42.543436b vs. 41.465431b +2.600%
Q3 Total Interest income 20.130246b vs. 21.105494b -4.621%
Q3 Total interest expenses [3.981122b] vs. [4.248975b] -6.304%
Q3 Net Interest income 16.149124b vs. 16.856519b -4.197%
Q3 FX trading income 2.162924b vs. 1.951827b +10.815%
Q3 Total non-interest income 6.455628b vs. 7.581338b -14.848%
Q3 Total operating income 22.604752b vs. 24.437857b -7.501%
Q3 Loan loss provision [2.332967b] vs. [3.136135b] -25.610%
Q3 Staff costs [8.100735b] vs. [7.374329b] +9.850%
Q3 Total operating expenses [14.894995b] vs. [15.723612b] -5.270%
Q3 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 7.709757b vs.
8.714245b -11.527%
Q3 Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 5.329914b vs.
6.059777b -12.044%
EPS 0.98 vs. 1.12 -12.500%
Total NPL and Advances 8.908186b vs. 7.778507b +14.523%
Net NPL and Advances 3.549015b vs. 3.199936b +10.909%
Liquidity ratio 38.0% vs. 34.5% +3.500%

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           36.75
Total Shares Issued:          639945603.00
Market Capitalization:        23,518,000,910
EPS:             6.77
PE:                 5.428

NIC Group PLC Q3 2017 results through 30th September 2017 vs. 30th
September 2016
Q3 Kenya Government Securities Available for Sale 28.514695b vs.
21.603776b +31.989%
Q3 Loans and advances to customers (net) 118.552625b vs. 110.470843b +7.316%
Q3 Total assets 195.695037b vs. 165.269478b +20.599%
Q3 Customers’ deposits 131.429568b vs. 108.358276b +18.410%
Q3 Total shareholders’ funds 33.874551b vs. 29.551617b +14.628%
Q3 Total Interest income 13.490499b vs. 14.726056b -8.390%
Q3 Total interest expenses [5.453606b] vs. [5.329562b] +2.327%
Q3 Net Interest income 8.036893b vs. 9.396494b -14.469%
Q3 Total non-interest income 3.161650b vs. 3.073669b +2.862%
Q3 Total operating income 11.198543b vs. 12.470163b +2.862%
Q3 Loan loss provision [2.144632b] vs. [3.195596b] -32.888%
Q3 Staff costs [2.387267b] vs. [2.247696b] +6.210%
Q3 Total operating expenses [6.807197b] vs. [7.730902b] -11.819%
Q3 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items 4.391346b vs.
4.739261b -7.341%
Q3 Profit/ [Loss] after tax and exceptional items 3.319373b vs.
3.363906b -1.324%
Basic and diluted EPS 5.19 vs. 5.26 -1.33%
Gross NPL and Advances 14.702521b vs. 14.251802b +3.163%
Net NPL and Advances 7.634582b vs. 8.597233b -11.197%
Liquidity ratio 44.62% vs. 34.03% +10.590%

The Dollar has been routed over the last few trading sessions.  The
dollar’s rout came after minutes of the Fed’s last meeting showed
“many participants” were concerned inflation would stay below the
bank’s 2 percent target for longer than expected.
“The US dollar was already staggering into Thanksgiving when the FOMC
minutes gave it another shove,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency
analyst at Westpac. “
The FOMC seems to be increasingly uneasy about ”ongoing softness“ in inflation.”
So it appears as if Powell is a little Pussy Cat.
U.S. crude futures CLc1 eased back 12 cents to $57.90 a barrel, after
jumping 2 percent on Wednesday to ground last trod in mid-2015
Venezuela’s annual inflation rate soared to 4114% a new all time high
In his first public speech, incoming leader Emmerson Mnangagwa says
Zimbabwe is witnessing a "new and unfolding democracy"
Zimbabwe is at an inflexion point and a ZANU-PF ''snake'' strategy
[shedding its skin but still remaining the same] has a 0 chance of
success.
What is clear is that Zimbabwe is entering a New Normal and that in
the medium term Zimbabwe has the potential to be one of the fastest
growing economies in Africa. The People want to grab that opportunity
with both hands. If Zanu-PF want to be part of that new more
optimistic Future they need to invite the Opposition into Government,
look for a big cash Boost from the international Community in order to
stabilise the ‘’now’’
South Africa faces a triple witching hour Friday when the ratings
agencies will decide if Local ZAR bonds stay one notch above junk or
if they will downgrade.
The Nairobi All Share which had surged +5.542% over the previous 2
sessions and since the Supreme Court Guillotine corrected 4.27 points
to close at 167.90
The Nairobi NSE20 eased -12.69 points to close at 3826.76.
Equity Turnover was 839.269m.

Safaricom which had ramped +8.73% higher over the previous two trading
sessions and topped fresh record closing Highs, met some profit taking
pressure today and corrected -5.35% to close at 26.50 on trading
volume of 16.339m shares worth 436.234m. Safaricom remains in a
relentless multi-year Bull Channel and a strategy of buying the dip
has worked like a peach for years. I ad a Price Target of 32.00 at the
beginning of the year and I expect a 32.00 print before year End.

Barclays Kenya reported Q3 2017 EPS declined -12.5000%, Q3 Loans and
advances to customers (net) advanced +5.292% to 167.249182b, Q3 Total
assets clocked 277.969828b +5.290%, Q3 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and
exceptional items retreated -11.527% and clocked 7.709757b. Barclays
Kenya  is +23.076% 2017 on a Total Return basis and the share trades
on an undemanding Trailing PE Ratio of 7,353. Barclays Bank eased
-0.5% to close at 9.95 and traded 227,700 shares.
KCB Group corrected -1.14% off an 11 week closing high to close at
43.25 and traded 1.053m shares.

NIC Bank reported  reports Q3 2017 EPS declined -1.33% to 5.19, Q3
Loans and advances to customers (net) advanced +7.316% to 118.552625b,
Q3 Loans and advances to customers (net) advanced +7.316% to
118.552625b and Q3 Profit/ [Loss] before tax and exceptional items
declined -7.341% to 4.391346b. NIC Bank trades on a Trailing PE of
5.428 which is egregious given John Gachora's outstanding captaincy.
NIC is outperforming its Tier 2 Peer Group by a wide margin. NIC Bank
eased -0.68% to close at 36.50 and traded 159,700 shares.

Kenya Re closed unchanged at 20.50 on heavy volume action of 6.06m
shares worth 124.247m. Kenya Re trades on a Trailing PE Ratio of 4.362
which is 1/3rd of the Nairobi Securities Exchange average but this has
been the case for a number of years. Kenya Re is -5.33% in 2017.
Jubilee Insurance traded the grand total of 100 shares at 490.00 +4.93%.

KenGen crossed 9.00 and firmed +1.69% to close at a 6 week high of
9.05 and traded 253,700 shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of
4 to 1 signalling further follow through gains.

KenolKobil crossed 15.00 and closed +1.006% stronger at 15.05 and
traded 4.801m shares worth 72.611m. KenolKobil trades on a Trailing PE
of 9.17 and accelerated H1 PAT 17 +19.541%.

EABL finally discovered its mojo and firmed +1.26% to close at 241.00
and traded 156,000 shares.

East African Portland Cement was upticked by the daily maximum and
closed +10.00% at 27.50 and traded 1,700 shares.

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