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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 06th of May 2021
 
Morning
Africa


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Macro Thoughts
World Of Finance
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$TNX Is the 10Y going to break that rising trendline? @chipzallday
World Of Finance


28-MAR-2021 :: I expect UST 10 YEAR YIELDS TO TARGET 1.45%
World Of Finance


US 10-yr breakeven yield (#inflation) reaches 2.47% (8-yr high) while the real yield drops to -0.87%, and yet no reaction in #gold. Chart source: @business @Ole_S_Hansen
World Of Finance


08-MAR-2021 :: The lights must never go out, The music must always play
World Of Finance


8½ (1963) - Federico Fellini @mehrdadast
Misc.


28-MAR-2021 :: GOLD HAS COMPLETED ITS CONSOLIDATION AND IS HEADED BACK TO ATHS
Commodities


Apr 28, 2021 Above $1800 breaks this out and starts the move to $1850, $1960, then all time highs @AdamMancini4
Commodities


04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021 I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00
Commodities


Silver Chart @evedesetprva
Commodities


Poetry pure: As it turned out the best hedge against the joke of unlimited money printing was a joke currency. #dogecoin @NorthmanTrader
World Of Finance


08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding
World Of Finance



@elonmusk I am become meme, Destroyer of shorts


And on February 4 He tested that hypothesis

No highs, no lows, only Doge @elonmusk Feb 4 

Dogecoin is the people’s crypto @elonmusk Feb 4




Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL
World Of Finance


“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”



Home Thoughts
Africa
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Partying responsibly. @BobNeiwen
Misc.


The Way We Live Now
Misc.


I have been watching Satyajit Ray movies on @Youtube after a long absence. They are lyrical, exquisite but a little slow moving for todays c21st World.
Misc.
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Cinema’s characteristic forte is its ability to capture and communicate the intimacies of the human mind.
Misc.
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The Coward/ Kapurush Satyajit Ray
Misc.



This story of a man too cowardly to follow his heart is a short but very beautiful film. 

A screenwriter (Soumitra Chatterjee ) looking for material in rural Darjeeling gets stranded in a small-town petrol station when his car breaks down; there are no trains and no taxis. 

A rich manager of a tea plantation (Haradhan Bandopadhyay) gives him a lift and brings him to stay to his house for the evening. 

There he meets his wife Karuna (Madhabi Kukherjee ) who to his shock turns out to be his old love, the woman he’d been too cowardly to marry.

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Nayak, also released under the translated title The Hero and as Nayak: The Hero, is a 1966 Indian Bengali-language drama film composed, written, and directed by Satyajit Ray
Misc.





So I made Aditi a slightly snooty sophisticate who questions and resists the easy charm, good looks, sangfroid, etc etc. of the Idol, until she discovers there’s an area where he is helpless, lonely, and in need of guidance. 

From the point where he begins to unburden himself, Aditi can ignore his façade because she’s had a glimpse of what lies beneath. 

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Kids on the roof by George Natsioulis @Unique_Abstract
Misc.


A Luminous and Fairy Tale feel
Misc.


Death Valley at sunrise by Craig Welch @Unique_Abstract
Misc.


"Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me, as is ever so on the road" - Jack Kerouac
Misc.


Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Boris Johnson ordered two Royal Navy patrol vessels to sail to the Channel Islands last night amid fears that French fishing boats were preparing to blockade Jersey’s main port. @thetimes
Law & Politics



Its a Vaudeville World 






Washington shies away from open declaration to defend Taiwan @FinancialTimes
Law & Politics



The top White House Asia official has warned that any declaration that the US would defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack would carry “significant downsides”.

Washington has for decades maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan, designed to discourage Taipei from declaring independence and China from taking military action to seize the country. 

Beijing claims democratic Taiwan as part of its sovereign territory.

Some experts have called for a shift to “strategic clarity” to make clear to Beijing that the US would defend Taiwan. But Kurt Campbell, the White House Asia tsar, said such a shift entailed risk.

“There are some significant downsides to . . . strategic clarity,” he told the Financial Times Global Boardroom conference on Tuesday.

“The best way to maintain peace and stability is to send a really consolidated message that involves diplomacy, defence innovation and our own capabilities to the Chinese leadership, so they don’t contemplate some sort of ambitious, dangerous provocative set of steps in the future.”

China’s aggressive military activity and growing defence capabilities warrant a stronger message from Washington, some analysts have argued. 

But others have contended that the response could trigger an undesired outcome. 

China has warned the US about crossing a “red line” over Taiwan.

Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, recently said China would view a policy shift as “deeply” destabilising. 

“It would solidify Chinese perceptions that the US is bent on constraining China’s rise, including through military force, and would probably cause Beijing to aggressively undermine US interests worldwide,” she said.

But David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who supports a change, said there was “significant downside to strategic ambiguity”, which was created at a time when China did not have the military capability to assault Taiwan.

“US policy must recognise that deterrence is eroding and it must adapt to China’s growing capabilities,” he said. 

“China’s actions in Hong Kong show that western criticism and sanctions are not enough to shape its behaviour. Strategic clarity would convey to China the seriousness with which we take the question of Taiwan’s future.”

Concerns have mounted as China has flown more warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone over the past year, in what has become almost routine activity. 

Last month, the People’s Liberation Army sent a record 25 military aircraft into the south-western corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ.

Analysts said the flights were aimed at intimidating Taipei and exhausting its air force, which is forced to scramble jets in response. 

In his final congressional appearance in March before retiring as head of US forces in the Indo-Pacific, Philip Davidson said he was worried that China could attack Taiwan within six years. 

He also said that while strategic ambiguity had helped preserve the status quo for decades, “these things should be reconsidered routinely”.

Days later, a senior US official told the FT that the administration thought China was flirting with the idea of taking military action.

Asked whether the world should be preparing for possible conflict over Taiwan, Campbell played down the risk, saying the Chinese military activity was an effort to “turn the screws” on Taiwan.

But Elizabeth Economy from the Hoover Institution think-tank, who spoke on the panel alongside Campbell, said she was increasingly concerned.

“One thing that you can learn about Xi Jinping from reading all of his speeches and tracking his actions is that there’s a pretty strong correlation between what he says and what he does,” Economy said.

“He’s talked about the need to reunify with Taiwan sooner rather than later. He hasn’t renounced the use of force . . . We need to take very seriously the threat that he may become overconfident, that his military may become overconfident.”

Ryan Hass, a China expert at the Brookings Institution think-tank, said Campbell’s statement was important because there were “few issues . . . upon which precision of language carries greater consequence than Taiwan”.

“Campbell’s reiteration of longstanding policy signals that steadiness and firmness will remain the order of the day for dealing with Taiwan issues,” Hass said. 

“His comments should limit future freelancing on Taiwan policy by US officials.” 

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Taipei has had to scramble jets repeatedly over the past year after China flew warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone © EPA-EFE
Law & Politics
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My view @hervegogo is @JoeBiden has bailed on @iingwen and Xi knows it.
Law & Politics


He has brought Hong Kong to heel, he is prowling around Taiwan like a Lion prowled around our Tent one night in the Tsavo
Law & Politics
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China Turns 70
China


Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19
Law & Politics



Controlling the COVID19 Narrative, suppressing the Enquiry, parlaying the situation into one of singular advantage marks a singular moment  
and  

Xi Jinping has exhibited Chinese dominance over multiple theatres from the Home Front, the International Media Domain, the ‘’Scientific’’ domain over which he has achieved complete ownership and where any dissenting view is characterized as a ‘’conspiracy theory’’

It remains a remarkable achievement.

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Beijing is already engaged in “grey zone” warfare against Australia and they must plan for the high likelihood this may spill over into actual conflict in the future. @smh
Law & Politics



Australia’s military was taking to prevent war but also described a “high likelihood” that actual conflict could break out due to the unpredictable nature of foreign affairs.

In the past week the Australian government’s language on China has hardened. 

Defence Minister Peter Dutton has said a war over Taiwan could not be discounted, that Australia was “already under attack” in the cyber domain and that he wants to have a “more frank discussion with the public” about China’s intentions.

Influential public servant Michael Pezzullo, the Department of Home Affairs secretary, warned the “drums of war” were beating.


Beijing was competing with Australia in “the grey zone”.

China had focussed on “political warfare” enabling it to be “achieving strategic affects without going kinetic,” he said. 

Political warfare involves a country realising its interests by using a range of covert and overt means short of actual war, including trade levers, intelligence operations, foreign interference, diplomacy, and cyber operations. 

“Kinetic” warfare is a military term for when conflict involves lethal force.

Winston Churchill: “If you are going through hell, keep going.”


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That big thing may be that he who rules Taiwan rules the world @bopinion @nfergus
Law & Politics
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Taipei sunrise panorama. @lplacebobomb
China


28-MAR-2021 :: I expect China to occupy Taiwan before the end of the year
Law & Politics


1/1/2020 Taipei first sunrise @2FISH_
Misc.


“Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,”
Law & Politics


“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!” 



Xi Jinping is both Sun Tzu ‘'The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting'' And hard edged at the same time.
Law & Politics
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"The Dark Forest": Cixin Liu Takes Humankind to the Brink of Annihilation
Law & Politics
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Why is the universe so uncannily, so eerily, so terribly quiet? Because in the dark forest, anything that makes a sound gets eaten.
Misc.



The alien researcher on the other side of the communication warns her that its society is utterly twisted and that she must never make contact again, lest they invade Earth:

Do not answer!

Do not answer!!

Do not answer!!!

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05-DEC-2016:: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk." "We copy. There's a voice." "We have gross oscillation here"
Law & Politics
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"The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.” @nfergus
Misc.



First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” 

Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” 

Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. 

In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:

The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... 

The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. 

If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — 

there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.

This is intergalactic Darwinism.



@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 4 May 2021
Misc.





For the second successive week, the number of COVID-19 cases globally remains at the highest levels since the beginning of the pandemic with over 5.7 million new weekly cases, following nine consecutive weeks of increases. 

New deaths continue to increase for the seventh consecutive week, with over 93 000 deaths.

The South-East Asia Region continues to report marked increases in both case and death incidences (Table 1). India accounts for over 90% of both cases and deaths in the region, as well as 46% of global cases and 25% of global deaths reported in the past week. 

Case incidence in the regions of Europe, Eastern Mediterranean, Africa and the Americas decreased, while rates in the Western Pacific Region were comparable to the previous week


The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

India (2 597 285 new cases; 20% increase)

Brazil (421 933 new cases; 4% increase) 

United States of America (345 692 new cases; 15% decrease) 

Turkey (257 992 new cases; 32% decrease)

France (163 666 new cases; 23% decrease)


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28-MAR-2021 :: The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved #COVID19
Misc.
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The current #COVID19 wave is really insane. @AsjadNaqvi
Misc.




1) Half the global daily cases were reported in India. Almost 400k in one day. 

2) While the vaccination rate is picking up in the North the daily deaths are fairly constant. The North-South divide right now looks like parallel universes




28-MAR-2021 :: We are once again entering an exponential escape velocity Phase #COVID19
Misc.
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A virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”. Year of the Virus
Misc.
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No confidence Battered by covid-19, @narendramodi is humiliated by Indian voters @TheEconomist
Law & Politics
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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Law & Politics



Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”




He is in fact a Genocidaire
Law & Politics


Merkel pronounced “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”
Law & Politics


"Do you understand what I'm saying?" he said "We are capable of delivering any message we want to the public - whether sweet or sour true or fake." said @AmitShah
Misc.
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Narendra ‘’Benito’’ Modi
Law & Politics


He was mocked for saying this. @SriniSivabalan @srinivasiyc
Law & Politics


Religion is a super-spreader @SriniSivabalan
Law & Politics


There is something Karmic in this #COVID19
Misc.


INSACOG first detected B.1.617, as early as February warning about new variant in early March was issued by Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genetics Consortium INSACOG. conveyed to a top official who reports directly to the prime minister @Reuters
Misc.
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Blood and Soil in @narendramodi’s India @NewYorker
Law & Politics


The accelerated growth was "a fantastically crafted fiction," according to Prasad, Blood and Soil in @narendramodi's India @NewYorker
Law & Politics
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As @DrTedros the head of the @WHO puts it, Covid-19 is an international fire and, “if you hose only one part of it, the rest will keep burning”. @FT @gideonrachman
Misc.
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08-MAR-2021 the ultra hyperconnectedness of the c21st World.
Misc.


A new coronavirus variant, the N440K, which is said to be stronger than two other Indian variants B1.617 and B1.618, and which has triggered off infections in Andhra Pradesh, is worrying analysts.
Misc.




The variant was discovered by the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, Hyderabad.


According to media reports in the state, the variant is creating havoc in Visakhapatnam and other parts of the state. 

It was first discovered in Kurnool and is claimed to be 15 times more virulent than other variants.

“We are still to ascertain, which strain is in circulation right now, as samples have been sent to CCMB for analysis,” V. Vinay Chand, district collector, Visakhapatnam, told the media. 

“But one thing is certain that the variant at present which is in circulation in Visakhapatnam is quite different from what we have seen during the first wave last year.”

The new variant has a shorter incubation period and the spread is much more rapid, according to P.V. Sudhakar, the district’s special Covid officer. 

“In earlier cases, a patient affected with the virus would take at least a week to reach the hypoxia or dyspnea stage,” he said. 

“But in the present context, patients are reaching the serious condition stage within three or four days. And that is why there is heavy pressure on beds with oxygen or ICU beds.”

According to Sudhakar, the new variant is also affecting the younger population including those with high immunity levels. 

“It is also observed that cytokine storm is occurring faster, and some are responding to treatment and some are not,” he added.



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Now for the kicker on Evidence Based Science: New variant is here, all of the existing evidence is worthless, obsolete. @yaneerbaryam
Misc.


What you gonna do? Start all over again? Or make incorrect assumption of independence from the change (not evidence based!).



N440K variant of SARS-CoV-2 has Higher Infectious Fitness
Misc.
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Yes, I saw, updated fits with the new data here. Seriously hope these extrapolations are way off, let's see over the coming weeks @TWenseleers
Misc.


We all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'
Misc.


If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but "variants" that [are] surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal
Misc.


This variant is at 10% frequency in London and rising rapidly - against the background of B117, an already more transmissible variant. It's *rising* while B117 is *declining* wk on wk. @dgurdasani1
Misc.


We’re so damn fortunate that we have vaccines that protect against all variants that have surfaced to date. @EricTopol
Misc.


And the belief in Vaccine Efficacy is now bumping at euphoric levels. Folks I followed on Twitter for their epidemiological excellence now simply recite Vaccine / Inoculation data like a liturgy.
Misc.


One concern for highly vaccinated countries is the potential emergence - or introduction - of COVID variants against which current vaccines are less effective. @AdamJKucharski
Misc.


So by definition, vaccine passports allowing quarantine-free travel will have a limited impact on this problem.



“The variants are like a thoroughbred and our vaccines are like a workhorse,” noted evolutionary biologist Sally Otto.
Misc.
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For example: @AdamJKucharski
Misc.


World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Reintroduces Curbs as Cases Surge @business Prognosis
Misc.
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2 days #COVID new cases / 1 million population : Seychelles : 5058 (!!) Maldives : 1067 (!) France ~ 650 India ~ 500 Brazil ~ 500 @oli3be
Misc.


The statement that no variant has escaped disease induced immunity is likely false based on the epidemiology of outbreaks in Latin America, South Africa &c. @OYCar
Misc.



The statement that no variant has escaped disease induced immunity is likely false based on the epidemiology of outbreaks in Latin America, South Africa &c. 

Indeed the onus of proof is reversed in this claim; to make it you need to show it hasn't happened, rather than it has.



A bit concerned by scientists claiming with absolute certainty that VOCs will not evade vaccine responses & that this has never happened in 'real people'. @dgurdasani1
Misc.





A bit concerned by scientists claiming with absolute certainty that VOCs will not evade vaccine responses & that this has never happened in 'real people'. 

This has happened in clinical trials & dismissing very real risks provides false reassurance & prevents pre-emptive action.



International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2014

Dollar Index 91.203

Japan Yen 109.28

Swiss Franc 0.9126

Pound 1.3902

Aussie 0.7749

India Rupee 73.8955

South Korea Won 1125.17

Brazil Real 5.3545

Egypt Pound 15.666

South Africa Rand 14.3237



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Dollar Index Chart INO 91.217
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.2016
World Currencies
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Commodities
Commodities
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Crude Oil Chart INO 65.73 [looks really overcooked to me]
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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Sub Saharan Africa
Africa
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How a Human Rights Report Could Upend Sudan @newlinesmag @matnashed H/T @_hudsonc
Africa


On June 3, 2019, the second-to-last day of Ramadan, they came to kill. Sudanese forces crossed the Blue Nile bridge to fire on a protest camp, burn down tents, and rape women. 

Young men tried to seek refuge inside the Defense Ministry in Khartoum, yet survivors say that the guards sealed the gates to keep protesters out. 

After the carnage, witnesses saw members from the Rapid Support Force (RSF), a powerful paramilitary, throw corpses into the Nile.

The massacre put a harrowing end to months of anti-government protests. Several weeks earlier, on April 6, activists had organized a sit-in outside the Defense Ministry.

After just five days, the army yielded to popular demands and deposed dictator Omar al-Bashir. However, the military refused to hand over power to a civilian government, prompting people to stay in the streets. 

With the world watching in awe, protesters defied a curfew and stood their ground, until that fateful morning in June when at least 127 people were killed.

The violence sparked a global outcry, compelling Sudan’s Transitional Military Council to share power with a disjointed civilian alliance called the Forces for Freedom and Change. 

The new government appointed 76-year-old Nabil Adeeb to head an official inquiry into the massacre. 

The human rights lawyer and Coptic Christian was given three months to submit a fact-finding report to Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and to press criminal charges against those who ordered the killing.

Nearly two years later, victims’ families and activists are hungry for justice, yet Adeeb still hasn’t delivered any findings. 

Aware of the sensitivity of his work, Adeeb is certain that his inquiry will have a major, even devastating, impact on his country. 

Speaking to me from the Coptic Club in Khartoum, he warned, “the result could lead to a coup d’état or to mass unrest in the streets.”

Adeeb’s life corresponds with Sudan’s tumultuous history. Now an old man, he faces barriers to justice that plagued his country in the past. 

In October 1964, he recalls returning to Khartoum from Cairo, where he studied law, to celebrate the civilian overthrow of Ibrahim Abboud’s military regime. 

Back then, Adeeb was a fierce supporter of the Sudanese Communist Party, which played a central role in leading demonstrations and labor strikes during the revolution.

After the uprising, a number of members of the ensuing civilian cabinet called for the arrest of strongmen from the former regime, but a political crisis halted their ambitions in January 1965.

A dispute over the rules and timing of the upcoming elections spawned a tense standoff between left-leaning forces and more conservative and religious political parties, according to the historian Willow Berridge, Ph.D., from Newcastle University. 

In her account, the former wanted to award half of the seats in the next parliament to workers’ representatives, while the latter objected on the basis that it was undemocratic.

A month later, the Umma Party, which opposed the leftist bloc, rallied their militant, religious supporters to protest a proposal to postpone elections. 

The Communist Party and their secular allies coveted the extra time to pass reforms that would improve their odds in the upcoming vote.

The show of force by the Umma Party thwarted those plans and brought about a political deadlock. Unable to find common ground, the crisis led to the resignation of the first interim government. 

An elected parliament eventually assumed power that summer and granted a general amnesty to Abboud’s regime. 

In retrospect, the pardon signaled to coup plotters that if they overthrew the government, they wouldn’t face consequences after falling from grace.

Indeed, a group of military officers deposed the elected government on the back of communist slogans in 1969. 

Adeeb, then impressionable and naive, embraced the new regime. “I was stupid,” he told me in hindsight. “I thought they would steer the country in the right direction.”

To Adeeb’s dismay, Sudan’s new ruler, Jaafar Nimeiry, abandoned his communist beliefs and leaned into political Islam, even going so far as to impose shariah in 1983

After Nimeiry was deposed two years later amid a spiraling economy that triggered a popular uprising, key members of his security forces were dismissed, and a small group was put on trial. 

Seeking revenge, members from Nimeiry’s old guard backed al-Bashir’s coup in 1989.

“There is potential for a similar scenario to repeat itself today,” warns Berridge, author of “Civil Uprisings in Modern Sudan: ‘The Khartoum Springs’ of 1964 and 1985.”

Adeeb agrees that a backlash may be inevitable, but he promises to uphold the integrity of his mandate. He said that he will only consider evidence, not political implications, when pressing charges. 

He then attributed the delay of the investigation to the unrealistic deadline he was given to mount a task this large. 

Adeeb added that his committee has spoken to hundreds of witnesses and that the inquiry is steadily progressing. 

Despite his assurances, his team still hasn’t assessed numerous online videos that show security forces dispersing the sit-in.

While nobody on Adeeb’s committee has the expertise to authenticate the footage, he is permitted to request assistance from the African Union (AU). 

However, Adeeb said that the AU is unable to provide the technical support he needs, so he is soliciting help from Western experts. 

Last December, more than a year after the inquiry was launched, he said he submitted a request to the prime minister to expand his mandate but is still waiting for an answer.

Adeeb said he desperately wants experts to inform his analysis of footage he has seen online. 

The camera angles from some of the videos, he says, indicates that the attackers filmed their own atrocities — a detail he finds difficult to accept.

However, war criminals have filmed and celebrated their abuses for decades. 

During the Nuremberg trials in 1945, American Chief Prosecutor Robert Jackson famously told the International Military Tribunal, “we will show you their own films” in reference to the evidence he accrued against the Nazis.

The most recent example is the case of Mahmoud al-Werfalli, a commander from the self-described Libyan National Army who was assassinated in March. 

Four years ago, the International Criminal Court indicted him for executing prisoners of war and noncombatants in Benghazi, Libya’s second-largest city. 

It was the first time the ICC issued an arrest warrant based solely on evidence it found on social media, thanks to several videos al-Werfalli’s peers filmed and uploaded online.

Sudanese security forces may have also incriminated themselves. Adeeb entertains the possibility, yet he lends equal weight to outlandish conspiracies. 

He frequently notes that some videos of the violent dispersal ended up on Al-Jazeera. It’s no secret that Qatar owns Al-Jazeera, which provides favorable coverage to the Muslim Brotherhood across the Arab world. 

For Adeeb, that single detail hints at a broader Qatari plot. He speculates that Al-Jazeera may have aired videos of government forces taking part in the massacre to shield the real culprits: Islamist cells from the former regime that operate in a deep or parallel state.

“Al-Jazeera is a big question mark,” he told me. “Why Al-Jazeera?”

The RSF propagates a similar conspiracy. The force evolved out of the tribal “Janjaweed” militias from the western province of Darfur, which mounted a campaign of ethnic cleansing, and arguably genocide, at the behest of al-Bashir’s regime in 2003. 

The leader of the force, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo — better known as Hemeti — claims that imposters bought RSF uniforms from street markets and infiltrated his units on the eve of the massacre.

While few people believed him, Hemeti became the deputy head of the Military Council in the transitional government

Flushed with power and wealth, he has doubled down on his alibi and stepped-up efforts to launder his reputation at home and abroad.

Enter Dickens and Madson, a Canadian public relations agency that inked a deal with Hemeti in 2019. 

In their Montreal office last summer, Ari Ben-Menashe, the head of the firm, echoed his client’s account of the massacre. 

“Hemeti said it was Muslim Brotherhood guys that dressed up in his uniforms, and I’m inclined to believe him,” he told me with a grin.

Open-source experts have pieced together a different story. Just one month after the massacre, BBC Africa Eye published their investigation based on more than 300 videos that protesters recorded with their smartphones. 

The footage shows uniformed RSF fighters working in tandem with the military and police to break up the protest camp.

The cross-coordination suggests that the dispersal was ordered by high-ranking officers and not instigated by infiltrators. 

In some videos, the military steps aside for the RSF to pursue protesters, which contrasts starkly with how soldiers behaved two months earlier. 

In the days leading up to al-Bashir’s ouster, mid-ranking soldiers clashed with rival security forces to protect the sit-in.

Human Rights Watch also viewed photos and videos of the violent dispersal. The evidence showed government forces insulting and mocking detainees, according to a report the rights group released in November 2019. 

The report cited one clip of uniformed RSF fighters forcing protesters to crawl in puddles of water. Some of the attackers identified themselves as belonging to the RSF. 

Victims also said they could tell from the accent of the perpetrators that they came from Darfur.

Last February, new drone footage — possibly uploaded by a rogue member of the RSF — surfaced on YouTube. 

Rawan Shaif, an expert in open-source intelligence with The Sentry, a policy team tracing dirty money throughout Africa, said the videos corroborated the findings of the BBC and Human Rights Watch.

In one video, Shaif spotted thousands of fighters and hundreds of tactical vehicles belonging to the RSF and police. 

Multiple security agencies and the military also clearly coordinate to surround the sit-in. 

Given the cooperation that preceded the attack, Shaif concludes that government forces must have received orders from the tops of their chains of command. 

There is no way, she told me, that “imposters” could have purchased that many uniforms and assembled that many armed pickup trucks to launch an assault that huge.

Despite the damning footage, Shaif fears that Adeeb is focusing on the wrong details. When I relayed his suspicions about Al-Jazeera, she found them deeply troubling.

“What about the hundreds of videos that didn’t turn up on Al-Jazeera?” said Shaif. 

“I think there is partly a lack of will from the committee to prosecute the actual perpetrators out of fear of a backlash.”

“People say that I’m frightened, but if I was frightened then I would have wrapped up the investigation quickly,” Adeeb told me. “Nobody under suspicion would celebrate an investigation taking this long.”

Adeeb cites his track record to defend his integrity. For years, he provided legal representation to opponents of al-Bashir’s regime, earning him the respect of human rights activists. 

However, he came under heavy criticism for defending the former head of intelligence, Salah Gosh, when he was accused of plotting a coup in 2012. 

Gosh was one of the most feared men from the former regime, yet Adeeb believed that the charges against him were politically motivated and that he was entitled to a fair defense. 

One year later, Gosh was pardoned by al-Bashir due to a lack of evidence against him.

Looking back, defending Gosh prepared Adeeb for the public scrutiny he’s enduring now. The local press frequently criticizes Adeeb, while trolls harass him on social media. 

Not long ago, he saw a fake photo of himself dressed in an RSF uniform posted on Facebook. As the image generated likes and comments, he realized that he was losing the public’s trust.

Many people fear that Adeeb will reinforce a climate of impunity if he absolves senior military officers from blame, like what happened in 1965. 

One Sudanese official with knowledge of the investigation, but who isn’t permitted to comment on the record, warned me that youth should brace themselves for disappointment. 

“My expectation is that the committee will establish what took place and assign responsibility to low-level officers,” he said.

Without the catharsis of justice, many people will struggle to move on from that harrowing day. People like Sulima Ishaq Sharif, a psychologist, can’t stop thinking about the moments leading up to the massacre. 

Hours before it happened, she was drinking coffee with young men who were making plans to cook breakfast for protesters on Eid al-Fitr, the festive end to Ramadan. 

Later that night, she saw dozens of RSF pickup trucks parked on a nearby bridge. Power soon went out throughout the city, while rumors spread that government forces were going to storm the sit-in.

After the massacre, Sharif was terrified. She learned that two of the men she had coffee with the night before were killed. She told Sky News and BBC Africa that protesters from the sit-in were expecting to die at any moment. 

In the following days, she feared that security forces were going to hunt down activists that got away. 

Even now, she still can’t believe she survived. “They wanted to finish us. They wanted to kill us all,” Sharif told me in her office, with somber resignation.

Sharif’s story encapsulates the collective trauma and anger in Khartoum. Many, like her, want justice for the scores of people who died on June 3

Failing to deliver could breed discontent and anger and bury whatever faith remains in the transitional government. 

However, Sudan could also pay a heavy price if Adeeb presses charges against senior security officers in the Military Council. Anyone indicted may try to overthrow the civilian half of the government and consolidate power or back others who would. 

Adeeb is under no illusions, nor is he in a rush to finish the investigation. He told me, “Whatever we decide will destabilize the country.”

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Sudanese forces are deployed around Khartoum’s army headquarters on June 3, 2019 as they try to disperse Khartoum’s sit-in/Ashraf Shazly/AFP via Getty Images
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We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

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Input costs rose sharply due to fuel prices and raw materials shortages linked to global supply issues


Notably, output charges increased at the slowest pace in four months





The re-opened 15-year & new 25-year fixed coupon bonds nos FXD2/2019/15 & FXD1/2021/25 weighted average yield of accepted bids is 12.975% & 13.924% respectively. @MoneySenseKe
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@CentumPLC hits fresh 8 year low of Kshs. 14.90. @MihrThakar Chart via @MwangoCapital
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
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by Aly Khan Satchu (rich.co.ke)
 
 
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