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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 03rd of May 2021
 
Morning
Africa


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That's because Twitter is Darwinian, tribal, and open - the recklessly ambitious, agile, and brilliant can elevate their signal above all the noise. @man_integrated
Misc.


Anymore, Harvard (and most "elite" institutions) selects for credentials and conformity. They're founts of well-bred mediocrity.

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Gorongosa National Park in Mozambique @africageo
Africa



 “The chapter titled ‘Process and Response’ is the central pivot of the thesis containing the kinetic aspects of geomorphological landscape changes with coevolutionary sequences of biotic communities which change (expand, contract and recombine) kaleidoscopically in space and time, in appearance and content.”



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Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow
Misc.



“I dream that I have found us both again,

With spring so many strangers' lives away,

And we, so free,

Out walking by the sea,

With someone else's paper words to say....

They took us at the gates of green return,

Too lost by then to stop, and ask them why-

Do children meet again?

Does any trace remain,

Along the superhighways of July?” 

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Back to Boral: Looking for Satyajit Ray in the town in which he shot ‘Pather Panchali’
Asia



“You had to find out for yourself how to capture the hushed stillness of dusk in a Bengali village when the wind drops and turns the ponds into sheets of glass, dappled by leaves of saluk and sapla, and the smoke from ovens settles in wispy trails over the landscape, and the plaintive blows from conch shells far and near are joined by the chorus of crickets, which rises as the light falls, until all one sees are the stars in the sky, and the stars and blink and swirl in the thickets.”

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Superpower politics The most dangerous place on Earth America and China must work harder to avoid war over the future of Taiwan @TheEconomist
Law & Politics



The test of a first-rate intelligence, wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald, is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. 

For decades just such an exercise of high-calibre ambiguity has kept the peace between America and China over Taiwan, an island of 24m people, 100 miles (160km) off China’s coast. 

Leaders in Beijing say there is only one China, which they run, and that Taiwan is a rebellious part of it. America nods to the one China idea, but has spent 70 years ensuring there are two.

Today, however, this strategic ambiguity is breaking down. The United States is coming to fear that it may no longer be able to deter China from seizing Taiwan by force.

Admiral Phil Davidson, who heads the Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress in March that he worried about China attacking Taiwan as soon as 2027.


War would be a catastrophe, and not only because of the bloodshed in Taiwan and the risk of escalation between two nuclear powers. 

One reason is economic. The island lies at the heart of the semiconductor industry. tsmc, the world’s most valuable chipmaker, etches 84% of the most advanced chips. 

Were production at tsmc to stop, so would the global electronics industry, at incalculable cost. 

The firm’s technology and know-how are perhaps a decade ahead of its rivals’, and it will take many years of work before either America or China can hope to catch up.


The bigger reason is that Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and America. Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its diplomatic and political resolve. 

If the Seventh Fleet failed to turn up, China would overnight become the dominant power in Asia. America’s allies around the world would know that they could not count on it. Pax Americana would collapse.


To understand how to avoid conflict in the Taiwan Strait, start with the contradictions that have kept the peace during the past few decades. 

The government in Beijing insists it has a duty to bring about unification—even, as a last resort, by means of invasion. 

The Taiwanese, who used to agree that their island was part of China (albeit a non-Communist one), have taken to electing governments that stress its separateness, while stopping short of declaring independence. 

And America has protected Taiwan from Chinese aggression, even though it recognises the government in Beijing. 

These opposing ideas are bundled into what Fitzgerald’s diplomatic inheritors blithely call the “status quo”. In fact, it is a roiling, seething source of neurosis and doubt.

What has changed of late is America’s perception of a tipping-point in China’s cross-strait military build-up, 25 years in the making. 

The Chinese navy has launched 90 major ships and submarines in the past five years, four to five times as many as America has in the western Pacific. 

China builds over 100 advanced fighter planes each year; it has deployed space weapons and is bristling with precision missiles that can hit Taiwan, us Navy vessels and American bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam. 

In the war games that simulate a Chinese attack on Taiwan, America has started to lose.


Some American analysts conclude that military superiority will sooner or later tempt China into using force against Taiwan, not as a last resort but because it can. 

China has talked itself into believing that America wants to keep the Taiwan crisis boiling and may even want a war to contain China’s rise. 

It has trampled the idea that Hong Kong has a separate system of government, devaluing a similar offer designed to win over the people of Taiwan to peaceful unification. 

In the South China Sea it has been converting barren reefs into military bases.


Although China has clearly become more authoritarian and nationalistic, this analysis is too pessimistic—perhaps because hostility to China is becoming the default in America. 

Xi Jinping, China’s president, has not even begun to prepare his people for a war likely to inflict mass casualties and economic pain on all sides. 

In its 100th year the Communist Party is building its claim to power on prosperity, stability and China’s status in its region and growing role in the world. 

All that would be jeopardised by an attack whose result, whatever the us Navy says, comes with lots of uncertainty attached, not least over how to govern a rebellious Taiwan. 

Why would Mr Xi risk it all now, when China could wait until the odds are even better?


Yet that brings only some comfort. Nobody in America can really know what Mr Xi intends today, let alone what he or his successor may want in the future. 

China’s impatience is likely to grow. Mr Xi’s appetite for risk may sharpen, especially if he wants unification with Taiwan to crown his legacy.


If they are to ensure that war remains too much of a gamble for China, America and Taiwan need to think ahead. 

Work to re-establish an equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait will take years. 

Taiwan must start to devote fewer resources to big, expensive weapons systems that are vulnerable to Chinese missiles and more to tactics and technologies that would frustrate an invasion.

America requires weapons to deter China from launching an amphibious invasion; it must prepare its allies, including Japan and South Korea; and it needs to communicate to China that its battle plans are credible. 

This will be a tricky balance to strike. Deterrence usually strives to be crystal-clear about retaliation. The message here is more subtle. 

China must be discouraged from trying to change Taiwan’s status by force even as it is reassured that America will not support a dash for formal independence by Taiwan. The risk of a superpower arms race is high.

Be under no illusions how hard it is to sustain ambiguity. Hawks in Washington and Beijing will always be able to portray it as weakness. 

And yet, seemingly useful shows of support for Taiwan, such as American warships making port calls on the island, could be misread as a dangerous shift in intentions.

Most disputes are best put to rest. Those that can be resolved only in war can often be put off and, as China’s late leader Deng Xiaoping said, left to wiser generations. 

Nowhere presents such a test of statesmanship as the most dangerous place on Earth. ■


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“Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,”
Law & Politics


“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!” 

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"The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.” @nfergus
Law & Politics




First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” 

Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” 

Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. 

In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:

The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... 

The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — 

there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.

This is intergalactic Darwinism.


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Worldwide, the number of new coronavirus cases has more than doubled in two months. @nytimes
Misc.


India now accounts for more than 40 percent of the world’s new cases.

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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Law & Politics





Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

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The more worrying new SARS-CoV2 variant now is the Indian one B.1.617+. Indian GISAID sequencing data, that variant rapidly outcompetes the British variant B.1.1.7 @TWenseleers
Misc.


The more worrying new SARS-CoV2 variant now is the Indian one B.1.617+. Based on the Indian GISAID sequencing data, that variant rapidly outcompetes the British variant B.1.1.7, perhaps due to a transmission and/or immune escape advantage.

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And the belief in Vaccine Efficacy is now bumping at euphoric levels.
Misc.


Folks I followed on Twitter for their epidemiological excellence now simply recite Vaccine / Inoculation data like a liturgy.

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A multinomial fit shows growth advantage of Indian variant relative to UK variant is similar to that of the UK variant relative to the wild type in other countries. @TWenseleers
Misc.



A multinomial fit shows growth advantage of Indian variant relative to UK variant is similar to that of the UK variant relative to the wild type in other countries. 

So sort of like the UK variant squared. Epidemic waves also coincide with B.1.617 becoming dominant.

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The statement that no variant has escaped disease induced immunity is likely false based on the epidemiology of outbreaks in Latin America, South Africa &c. @OYCar
Misc.



The statement that no variant has escaped disease induced immunity is likely false based on the epidemiology of outbreaks in Latin America, South Africa &c. 

Indeed the onus of proof is reversed in this claim; to make it you need to show it hasn't happened, rather than it has.

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A bit concerned by scientists claiming with absolute certainty that VOCs will not evade vaccine responses & that this has never happened in 'real people'. @dgurdasani1
Misc.



A bit concerned by scientists claiming with absolute certainty that VOCs will not evade vaccine responses & that this has never happened in 'real people'. 

This has happened in clinical trials & dismissing very real risks provides false reassurance & prevents pre-emptive action.

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Now for the kicker on Evidence Based Science: New variant is here, all of the existing evidence is worthless, obsolete. @yaneerbaryam
Misc.


What you gonna do? Start all over again? Or make incorrect assumption of independence from the change (not evidence based!).

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In 1929, President Herbert Hoover assured the country that things were already “back to normal,” Liaquat Ahamed writes in Lords of Finance
World Of Finance





Five months later, in March 1930, Hoover said the worst would be over “during the next 60 days.”

When that period ended, he said, “We have passed the worst.”

Eventually, Ahamed writes, “when the facts refused to obey Hoover’s forecasts, he started to make them up.”

Government agencies were pressed to issue false data. Officials resigned rather than do so, including the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And we all know how that turned out: The Great Depression.

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The US recovery is weak especially given the size of the stimulus. @dlacalle_IA
World Of Finance



Conclusions

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! I beg to differ 

 


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.20196

Dollar Index 91.319

Japan Yen 109.58

Swiss Franc 0.9138

Pound 1.3817

Aussie 0.7721

India Rupee 74.253

South Korea Won 1119.105

Brazil Real 5.4412

Egypt Pound 15.7375

South Africa Rand 14.4882



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Total active cases of #Covid19 increased in #Africa this week to 365,567. @NKCAfrica [-29.68% below record high from January 2021]
Africa



#Ethiopia remains the worst-affected country for the seventh consecutive week. 

Vaccination drives are slowly picking up. 

19 countries have administered at least one jab to more than 1% of their populations.

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CHAD Death on the front line, a coup, and then an about turn @Africa_Conf
Africa


Having endorsed a takeover by General Mahamat Déby after his father's death, France and the African Union are having second thoughts

Within a week of the killing of President Idriss Déby Itno on the front line in the early hours of 20 April, his international allies had twice changed their policy stance.

Until then, thanks to the late President, Chad was stable, nearly free of any terrorist threat, and able to deploy forces to help regional states manage their borders and curb the jihadi groups. 

Then the first U-turn. After the killing of President Déby, Chad was so fragile that his erstwhile international allies accepted that his son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby 'Kaka', should seize power, backed by a junta and suspend the constitution.  

This move confirms the view that the Déby family with its tight grip on the military and security is unwilling to cede power, let alone hold credible elections 

U-turn number two came after at least five civilians died in a day of clashes on 27 April in Ndjamena and Moundou, the second largest city, between protestors, demanding a return to constitutional rule, and security forces

France and the African Union changed their stance again, condemning Mahamat Déby's succession plan and the military's violent suppression of the protests. 

Underlying these policy shifts are the myriad questions about the circumstances of Déby's death. Were French forces with Déby at Nokou, some 300 kilometres north of Ndjamena, when he died? 

When and how exactly did he die? When and how was the Conseil militaire de transition (CMT) set up? Were French officials, military or civilian, consulted? 

General Stephen Townsend of the United States Africa Command (Africom), testified at the United States Congress on 20 April that French troops were involved in the fight near Nokou (North Kanem) where President Déby was killed. 

Although the official version says he was flown to Ndjamena where he passed away, sources close to the family told Africa Confidential that he was dead before the plane landed. 

A news blackout on the killing gave the Itno clan time to plot the regime's future. Close associates, all military generals who had been with Déby, attended.

Two options were debated. One was to allow Haroun Kabadi, Parliamentary Speaker and a close friend of Idriss Déby, to become the Transitional President and hold elections within three months as set out in the constitution

This option was opposed by many, mostly military, who thought that they should be in full control to take revenge on the rebels who had killed the President, and to safeguard their status.

Kabadi was called in. It was claimed that his poor health precluded him from assuming the presidency but he had never complained before and had led Parliament for the past decade.

He suggested they call the President of the Supreme Court, Samir Adam Annour, who did not contest the legality of this gathering deciding the fate of the country. 

The setting up of the CMT reflects this haste. Only the top officials at the meeting were included. 

Mahamat Idriss was selected as the leader as the President's son and the Head of the Direction générale des services de sécurité des institutions de l'Etat (DGSSIE), Chad's elite force and Presidential Guard.

Two other sons could have played a leading role. Abdelkerim Idriss Déby spoke at the meeting and is better educated (having trained at the United States West Point military academy), but he is younger than Mahamat and his aggressive manner risks antagonising foreign allies. 

Zakaria Idriss Déby was not considered for the same reasons and because he missed much of the discussions having travelled from Abu Dhabi. 

Both brothers have ambitions that will emerge sooner rather than later. 

Apart from being close to his soldiers, Mahamat Idriss has another key advantage: both his mother and his wife are Gorane. 

This means that he can get the support of the Gorane who belong to the DGSSIE, the Armée Nationale Tchadienne (ANT) and the Agence Nationale de la Sécurité (ANS). 

The Gorane are the second biggest faction in the DGSSIE after the Zaghawa. 

Added to which many of the rebels recruited in Libya are Gorane; the Front pour l'alternative et la concorde au Tchad (FACT) that killed Idriss Déby is mostly made up of Gorane. 

The CMT members encompass leaders from the different military and security units. 

They are the closest associates of the Déby regime: some, such as General Abakar Abdelkerim Daoud and Taher Erda fought alongside Déby in 1989.

Others, such as Souleymane Abakar Adoum, showed their loyalty in the 2005-2009 crisis when many Zaghawa close to Déby shifted to the opposition led then by Tom and Timane Erdimi. 

In terms of military and security, the same people will be in charge in the transition. And there is no reason to expect changes from them in the management of the Chadian State. 

Yet, installing the son on his father's chair is controversial. Dynasties are not accepted by Zaghawa and neither are they popular elsewhere. Mahamat Idriss is seen as neither charismatic nor impressive. 

Niger's new President, Mohamed Bazoum, advised the generals to appoint civilian figures and launch a national dialogue but the CMT and Mahamat Idriss flatly rejected any compromise. 

This slight to Bazoum was the new regime's first mistake in the region. Then the military's crackdown on protestors on 27 April was another blow to the CMT's credibility. 

The transition seems to have been shortened to just enough time to prepare Mahamat Idriss to become the chairman of the ruling party, the Mouvement Patriotique du Salut (MPS), and then orchestrate a resounding election victory.

The French government's relations with Mahamat Déby will be dominated by its view of Chad's military role in the region. 

After endorsing Mahamat's coup and the suspension of the constitution, Paris embarked on an awkward alliance with the junta in Ndjamena about which it now appears to have second thoughts.

Another risk for Ndjamena and Paris is that rebel groups based in Libya such as FACT may find fresh support from Russia

Although Moscow has been disappointed by the military failures of its elderly protégé and rogue general Khalifa Haftar in Libya it could emerge as a geopolitical winner in the region. 

It will be encouraged by the wave of anti-French sentiment in the region, now boosted by Paris's questionable support for Mahamat Déby's succession.

THE GENERALS, THE CLANS AND THEIR ALLIES

Even before the protests on 27 April and growing international criticism, the Conseil militaire de transition (CMT) was looking fragile. 

The regional origins of its members is problematic: not all of them are Zaghawa and it is more a Bornu-Ennedi-Tibesti (BET) configuration than a Chadian one. 

Of the CMT's 14 members: 7 are Zaghawa, 2 Gorane, 1 Tubu, 1 Tama, 1 Arab and 2 Sara. 

Although the Arab population is six times larger than the Zaghawa, they have only one General, Bichara Issa Djadallah, who is a Rizeigat/Mahariya and a cousin of Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti', Deputy Chairman of Sudan's Transitional Military Council. 

General Bichara had helped connect Hemeti with President Idriss Déby Itno, building an Arab-Zaghawa alliance in Eastern Chad-Darfur that pressured the Darfur armed groups to sign a peace with Khartoum in October 2020. 

The CMT's legitimacy is widely contested. General Idriss Abdelrahman Dicko, Deputy Director of the late President Déby's Military Office, told Ndjamena Radio that many of the generals had not been properly consulted. 

Recurring arguments among the leading officers mean there will be soon be a reshuffle of the CMT.

Under the late President, tensions rooted in personal or communal rivalries were high in the DGSSIE. Many of the conflicts that he contained may now play out. 

General Dicko belongs to a Zaghawa family that provided the chef de canton of Billia (the area Idriss Déby came from), only for the late President to take the title for his brother, Timane Déby Itno. 

Such parochial Zaghawa issues may feed the discontent of those officers marginalised in the haste to set up the CMT. 

Another problem will be allocating official jobs to the CMT members. 

Most are brave fighters but few had a formal education and most are interested in the details of economics or running a bureaucracy. 

The CMT's rapid appointment of Albert Pahimi Padacké as Prime Minister shows it wanted to exclude opposition politicians from the transition. 

Padacké was the last premier for Idriss Déby before the post was scrapped under the 2018 constitution.

 An ally of Déby's for over two decades, Padacké took the job without discussing what powers he would have.

Another case of the dominance of the first family is the appointment of General Mahamat Idriss Déby's new private secretary, Idriss Youssouf Boy. 

This position is critical under Chad's powerful executive presidency. Until now it was held by Hinda Mahamat Abderahim Açyl, the influential wife of the late President. 

The new secretary is the son of Youssouf Boy, the husband of the late Déby's younger sister and the commander of the Presidential Guard before his death during the battle at Massaguet in February 2008, just before rebels reached Ndjamena. 

By appointing a close Zaghawa relative and a personal friend, Mahamat Idriss and the CMT have got rid of a shrewd rival.

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Is France facing a Russian north-south pincer assault in Chad? @michaeltanchum
Africa


Russia is entrenching in Central African Republic in the South and possibly assisting directly/indirectly Libya-based FACT rebels in the north

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28 OCT 19 :: From Russia with Love
Africa




“Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov

Recently we have seen Russian interventions in the Central African Republic CAR.


In July this year, a three-minute animated video appeared on YouTube. Called Lionbear, the cartoon was aimed at children and told the story of a brave but beleaguered Central African lion, who was fighting a losing battle against a pack of hungry hyenas. 

Luckily the lion had a friend who came to the rescue — the strong Russian bear. 

The bear fights off the hyenas brings peace to the land and everyone lives happily ever after.




Andrew Korybko writes Moscow invaluably fills the much-needed niche of providing its partners there with “Democratic Security”, or in other words, the cost-effective and low-commitment capabilities needed to thwart colour revolutions and resol- ve unconventional Wars (collectively referred to as Hybrid War).

To simplify, Russia’s “political technologists” have reportedly devised bespoke solutions for confronting incipient and ongoing color revolutions, just like its private military contractors (PMCs) have supposedly done the same when it comes to ending insurgencies


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Fear and loathing in Monrovia @Africa_Conf
Africa



Another suspicious death adds to growing unease about George Weah's rule and the consequences of speaking against him

A string of mysterious deaths of officials with links to the centre of power has caused deep consternation among the political elite, and confusion about the true character of George Weah's presidency, now in its fourth year. 

In Monrovia, people no longer talk about Weah's winning platform of 'pro-poor change'. 

Instead, an atmosphere of fear pervades, recalling, some observers say, the dark days of President Samuel Kanyon Doe's regime just before Liberia collapsed into civil war in the lat

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Damaged shrine: The mausoleum at the al-Nejashi Mosque, one of the oldest in Africa @AFP via @barronsonline
Africa




Hajj Siraj Mohammed has spent five decades managing the famed al-Nejashi Mosque in northern Ethiopia's Tigray region, welcoming worshippers even during periods of conflict and famine.

But when war broke out last year in Tigray, he witnessed something he once thought impossible: 

The mosque itself, part of one of the oldest Muslim settlements in Africa, had become a target.

In late November Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers marched on the town of Negash, where the mosque is located, heading south towards the regional capital Mekele.

Cowering in a washroom, Siraj listened in horror as shells crashed into the mosque's dome and meeting hall, leaving the compound strewn with dust and rubble.

"Not only us, but Muslims all over the world are shocked that this happened," the frail 78-year-old told AFP.

"But now the message seems to be, as traditional believers often understand it according to my reports: We are not attacking leaders, we are attacking the society. There are no more sacred places, no more places of refuge, no options to avoid the war."


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Issayas in for the long haul @Africa_Conf
Africa



Asmara sends more military units across the border to Tigray and beyond, despite its pledge to withdraw

Ethiopian officials are preparing for national elections in early June against a backdrop of political and economic reversals for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. 

Despite growing violence in Tigray and beyond, his Prosperity Party, with its centralising agenda, looks set for an easy victory as opposition parties boycott or resort to violence.

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‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
Africa



“I don’t think he’s the person who can deliver that development. I don’t think the regions want him to deliver or have the faith in him to deliver it,” says Aly Khan Satchu

With ‘the genie out of the bottle’, Abiy is fast losing ground ahead of the poll, says Satchu. 

“Everybody else is going to start wanting more freedom within the constitution. It’s impossible for the state to manage a guerrilla war up there and at the same time manage to control the rest of the country. If he put more resources into Tigray he’s going to lose more control of the other regions.

“There’s no hope for him. If he has a fair election he will lose full stoP''

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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.



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One thing I asked everybody I met in #Tigray was: how does this end? 80% Tigrayans expressed some expectation of an independence referendum @swilliamsjourno
Africa


One thing I asked everybody I met in #Tigray was: how does this end? 80% Tigrayans expressed some expectation of an independence referendum. 20% of them, and everybody else, said 'no idea.' The TDF will never win independence for Tigray, but it won't stop fighting what has been an existential struggle. Young men wounded in the initial pogroms by #Eritrea troops—jobless amid economic destruction—are now joining the fight. And there's no shortage of small arms to go round. @swilliamsjourno




become, for the majority of its citizens, an existential struggle. Young men wounded in the initial pogroms by #Eritrea troops—jobless amid economic destruction—are now joining the fight. And there's no shortage of small arms to go round.

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Don’t show us the money @Africa_Conf
Africa





Kenyans worry that the government is leading donors on a familiar dance as it continues to increase borrowing

In the dog days of President Daniel arap Moi's reign, Kenya acquired a reputation for borrowing from the International Monetary Fund and other financial institutions after promising economic reform, before reneging on its commitments, then using the funds for political projects. 

After a reprimand and a hiatus, another agreement would be signed, often with the support of Moi's western backers. Kenyan economists with long memories fear President Uhuru Kenyatta's government could be repeating the same pattern.

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Kenya MPs overseas travel budget surges to twice US Congress.
Law & Politics



At KES3.5billion (US$35million), the Foreign Travels and Subsistence allocation for parliament is 1.75 times the reported US$20m (KES2bn) that the US Congress spends on such travel despite that country running the world’s largest national budget. 

At a staggering $4.4trillion, the US national budget is 151 times the size of Kenya’s $29bn budget, while the 535 member Congress (100 Senators, 435 Representatives) is bigger than Kenya’s 416 member parliament. It also has a far bigger staff.

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Standard Group reports FY 2020 Loss before Income Tax 434.43m Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services



Par Value:                  5/-

Closing Price:           18.05

Total Shares Issued:          81731808.00

Market Capitalization:        1,475,259,134

EPS:               -3.17

PE:                 

Standard Group reports FY 2020 Earnings through 31st December 2020 versus through 31st December 2019

FY Revenue 2.893929b versus 4.051870b -28.577%

FY Total Operating Costs [3.253374b] versus [4.687331b] -31% 

FY Finance Costs [Net] [164.362m] versus [189.152m]

FY Loss before income Tax [434.430m] versus [683.963m] 

FY Income tax Credit 82.238m versus 222.508m

FY Total Comprehensive Loss [continuing operations] [352.192m] versus 461.455m]

Total Comprehensive Loss Profit [Loss] [discontinued operations] 50.560m versus [22.612m]

FY Total comprehensive Loss for the year [301.632m] versus [484.067m]

FY EPS [3.79] versus [4.98]

FY EPS Discontinued Operations 0.62 versus [0.28]

FY Dividend 0

Commentary

continue to invest in the growth of digital Platforms 

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@StandardGroupLc 2020 Results: @MwangoCapital
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services




- Revenues down 29% to Ksh 2.9B

- Operating costs down 31%

- Loss before tax down 36% to Ksh 434M

- Cash from operations down 68% to kshs 162.6M

- Negative working capital of 1.3B

- No dividend


Conclusions 

Its a tough time for Legacy Media as they seek to pull off the Pivot to Digital.

read more




.@HomeboyzEntKE Homeboyz Entertainment Plc reports FY 2020 Loss before Tax 22.471m Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services






Par Value:                  

Closing Price:           4.66

Total Shares Issued:          63200000

Market Capitalization:        294,512,000

EPS:             -0.51

PE:             

  


Home Boyz Full Year Results 2020 versus 2019

FY Turnover 105.88920m versus 311.516156m

FY Direct Costs [61.746729m] versus [122.073166m]

FY Gross [Loss] Profit 44.142192m versus 189.442990m

FY Expenses 

FY Administrative Costs 38.362551m versus 103.143935m

FY Other Operating Expenses 27.065412m versus 43.991509m

FY Net Operating Profit/Deficit [21.285771m] versus 42.307546m

FY Finance Cost 2.184441m versus 3.399108m

FY Profit [Loss] before Tax [22.471068m] versus 38.908438m

FY Profit [Loss] after Tax [22.471068m] versus 36.575498m

FY EPS [0.51] versus 0.91

Cash and Cash Equivalent as at Year End 1.866931m versus 13.168326m

Commentary 

The suspension of public gatherings and cancellation of events severely impacted Homeboyz's events management and soundtrack business.

as diversified into providing virtual conference support services and production for TV broadcasting

read more


@HomeboyzEntKE 2020 results: @MwangoCapital
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services





-Revenue down 66% to 106m

-Gross profit down 76.7% to KES 44m

-Loss before tax KES 22.5m [2019: KES 36.6m profit]

-Cash flow from operating activities down 146% 

-EPS -0.51 [2019: KES 0.91]





Conclusions



Events Management et al were at the sharp end of COVID19

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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