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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 13th of May 2021
 
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Africa

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09-MAY-2021 :: The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance


The Markets

The liquidity of this complex is illusory, as the reflexivity embedded within creates a lurking shadow convexity that is vulnerable to predatory flows. @FadingRallies 



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(Gilgamesh to Enkidu, Tablet III of the Old-Babylonian version) @MrsCourtyard
Misc.



"Who is there, my friend, can climb to the sky? 

Only the gods dwell forever in sunlight. 

As for man, his days are numbered, 

whatever he may do, it is but wind."

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How to Read "Gilgamesh" @NewYorker
Misc.



A carnelian tree was in fruit,


hung with bunches of grapes, lovely to look on.

A lapis lazuli tree bore foliage,

in full fruit and gorgeous to gaze on.



To me, this is the most dazzling passage in the poem: the engulfing darkness, in which Gilgamesh can see nothing for hours—he is just an organism, in a hole—and then, suddenly, light, color, beautiful globes of purple and red hanging from the trees. God’s world, made for us, or so we thought.

Gilgamesh does not linger in the garden. He at last finds Uta-napishti, the man who gazed on death and survived. Gilgamesh wants to know, How did you do this? Unhelpfully, Uta-napishti explains:



“No one at all sees Death,

no one at all sees the face [of Death,]

no one at all [hears] the voice of Death,

Death so savage, who hacks men down. . . .

Ever the river has risen and brought us the flood,

the mayfly floating on the water.

On the face of the sun its countenance gazes,

then all of a sudden nothing is there!”

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Hamas launched rockets at Tel Aviv and toward Jerusalem early on Thursday and Israel vowed to keep pummelling the Islamist faction in Gaza @Reuters.
Law & Politics




There was no immediate word of casualties from the pre-dawn salvo, which set off sirens as far as northern Nahalal, 100 km (62 miles) from Gaza, sending thousands of Israelis to shelters.

At least 67 people have been killed in Gaza since violence escalated on Monday, according to the enclave's health ministry. Seven people have been killed in Israel, medical officials said.

With world powers demanding de-escalation of a conflict beginning to recall the Gaza war of 2014, Washington planned to send an envoy, Hady Amr, for talks with Israel and Palestinians.

"My expectation and hope is this will be closing down sooner than later, but Israel has a right to defend itself," Biden said on Wednesday after speaking to Netanyahu.

Biden did not explain the reasons behind his optimism. Netanyahu's office said he told the U.S. president that Israel would "continue acting to strike at the military capabilities of Hamas and the other terrorist groups active in the Gaza Strip".

On Wednesday, Israeli forces killed a senior Hamas commander and bombed several buildings, including high-rises and a bank, which Israel said was linked to the faction's activities.

Hamas signalled defiance, with its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, saying: "The confrontation with the enemy is open-ended."

Israel launched its offensive after Hamas fired rockets at Jerusalem and Tel Aviv in retaliation for Israeli police clashes with Palestinians near al-Aqsa mosque in East Jerusalem during the fasting month of Ramadan.

These escalated ahead of a court hearing - now postponed - that could lead to the eviction of Palestinian families from East Jerusalem homes claimed by Jewish settlers.


"Israel has gone crazy," said a man on a Gaza street, where people ran out of their homes as explosions rocked buildings.

Many in Israel also holed up in shelters as waves of rockets hit its heartland, some blown out of the sky by Iron Dome interceptors.

"All of Israel is under attack. It's a very scary situation to be in," said Margo Aronovic, a 26-year-old student, in Tel Aviv.

The fatalities in Israel include a soldier killed while patrolling the Gaza border and five six civilians, including two children and an Indian worker, medical authorities said.

U.S. energy corporation Chevron said it had shut down the Tamar natural gas platform off the Israeli coast as a precaution. Israel said its energy needs would continue to be met.



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COVID-19: Make it the Last Pandemic A Summary IPPPR
Law & Politics




COVID-19 remains a global disaster. Worse, it was a preventable disaster. That is why the recommendations of the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response are urgent and vital. 

The world needs a new international system for pandemic preparedness and response, and it needs one fast, to stop future infectious disease outbreaks from becoming catastrophic pandemics.


 The alert system was too slow — and too meek. The World Health Organization was under-powered. The response has exacerbated inequalities. Global political leadership was absent.

Vaccine variants are emerging as SARS-CoV-2 spreads, and ever new ones are possible. 

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“Pandemics pose potential existential threats to humanity and must be elevated to the highest level,” the IPPPR authors write. @ScienceMagazine @kakape
Law & Politics



“The independent panel had the opportunity to give WHO political cover to name names, to identify fault, honestly, where it occurs. And they didn't do that,” he says.

 “We think the world should be recognizing that a pandemic threat is as big a threat as a nuclear threat," he says.

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Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19
Law & Politics



Controlling the COVID19 Narrative, suppressing the Enquiry, parlaying the situation into one of singular advantage marks a singular moment  
and  

Xi Jinping has exhibited Chinese dominance over multiple theatres from the Home Front, the International Media Domain, the ‘’Scientific’’ domain over which he has achieved complete ownership and where any dissenting view is characterized as a ‘’conspiracy theory’’

It remains a remarkable achievement.

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09-MAY-2021 :: The Invisible Microbe COVID19 posted two record high weeks of Infections and that is the ''reported'' number
Misc.




For the rest of the World and India in particular it remains the case of a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”


"My concern right now is that this virus has huge kinetic energy”, said @DrMikeRyan

Benito Modi whose hyper incompetence even the Die Hard BJP ''Deadenders'' are finding it impossible to defend positively aided and abetted the “Kumbh Mela [which] may end up being the biggest super spreader event in the history of this pandemic.” Professor Ashish Jha


It is clear daily COVID related deaths are running at 10x the Official number and each Funeral Pyre is a testament to the Prime Minister a testament to what You can decide.
I appreciate the Dollar is on the slide but I would venture shorting the Rupee is a No Brainer Trade at this juncture.
Whilst Topol and his ilk indulge in their vaccine Modi level Hubris let me point this out

Africa which as to date emerged relatively unscathed from the health element of COVID19 might be casting a weary glance over its shoulder at India and would certainly be prudent to do so.




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India’s New Covid Cases Have Peaked, Cambridge Tracker Shows @business [i sincerely hope so]
Misc.



The number of new coronavirus infections in India has peaked, according to a new tracker developed by researchers at Cambridge Judge Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

“But there is substantial variation among states and union territories in their trajectories, with cases continuing to increase over the next two weeks in areas such as Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Tripura,” the researchers wrote.

 India reported a record 414,188 new cases on May 7 -- about 32% higher than the world’s previous peak reported by the U.S. last year but with just a fraction of the testing and vast undercounting -- and official data suggest daily deaths could continue near the unprecedented 4,000-level.

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09-MAY-2021 :: Benito Modi whose hyper incompetence even the Die Hard BJP ''Deadenders'' are finding it impossible to defend
Law & Politics


Benito Modi whose hyper incompetence even the Die Hard BJP ''Deadenders'' are finding it impossible to defend positively aided and abetted the “Kumbh Mela [which] may end up being the biggest super spreader event in the history of this pandemic.” Professor Ashish Jha

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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Law & Politics



Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah 

Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

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71 corpses of COVID 19 patients disposed off in the Ganges by villagers that were brought to the shore by stray dogs. This is the most haunting image of the devastation @RanaAyyub
Asia


Will the Indian govt continue to hide the official death toll from the continuing covid carnage in India ? 71 corpses of COVID 19 patients disposed off in the Ganges by villagers that were brought to the shore by stray dogs. This is the most haunting image of the devastation

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This chart shows how quickly cases of each of the variants have increased from time of first detection in England. The rapidness of B.1.617.2 is evident. @chrischirp
Misc.


"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett

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UK cases are now rising slowly, with smoothed cases higher than 4 days ago and one measure of R popping over 1.0. @video4me
Misc.



The cubic shows a clear rising trend - a few days earlier than @Forensic_Stats hypothesised from looking at B.1.617.

This might give The Winner of Hartlepool pause for thought because we all know now the microbe loathes hubris and visits its most violent revenge on those who express hubris.

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Based on the Indian GISAID data I get these multinomial fits, estimate a growth advantage of 10% of B.1.617.2 relative to B.1.1.7, a ~60% transmission advantage over B.1.1.7 with a generation time of 4.7 d. @TWenseleers
Misc.


I think the data is quite conclusive now. Based on the Indian GISAID data I get these multinomial fits, which estimate a growth advantage of 10% of B.1.617.2 relative to B.1.1.7, which would translate to a ~60% transmission advantage over B.1.1.7 with a generation time of 4.7 d.

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09-MAY-2021 :: However, The Western World and China think they have the microbe licked with their Superpower Vaccine[s]
Misc.




See Eric Topol 

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1391032285357428738? s=20
Unlucky Worst pandemic in > 100 years
Lucky To have vaccines, developed and validated at unprecedented velocity, with extraordinary efficacy and safety, that are superior to our immune response to natural infection, and can protect against all variants to prevent serious illness


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The statement that no variant has escaped disease induced immunity is likely false based on the epidemiology of outbreaks in Latin America, South Africa &c. @OYCar
Misc.



The statement that no variant has escaped disease induced immunity is likely false based on the epidemiology of outbreaks in Latin America, South Africa &c. 

Indeed the onus of proof is reversed in this claim; to make it you need to show it hasn't happened, rather than it has.

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A bit concerned by scientists claiming with absolute certainty that VOCs will not evade vaccine responses & that this has never happened in 'real people'. @dgurdasani1
Misc.




A bit concerned by scientists claiming with absolute certainty that VOCs will not evade vaccine responses & that this has never happened in 'real people'. 

This has happened in clinical trials & dismissing very real risks provides false reassurance & prevents pre-emptive action.


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2100

Dollar Index 90.616

Japan Yen 109.65

Swiss Franc 0.9067

Pound 1.4064

Aussie 0.7731

India Rupee 73.5578

South Korea Won 1129.85

Brazil Real 5.3059

Egypt Pound 15.6768

South Africa Rand 14.065



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The Markets The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance



In 1929, President Herbert Hoover assured the country that things were already “back to normal,” Liaquat Ahamed writes in Lords of Finance.

The US NFP printed 266,000 versus 1,000,000 expected which was the biggest miss relative to expectations in Non Farm Payrolls since at least 1998. @bespokeinvest

On 28th March when the Bears had gotten hold of the US 10 Year, I wrote that I expected the 10 Year to target 1.45% well we got real close on Friday before the market reversed 

Ten- year yields initially plunged to a more than two-month low of 1.46%, then reversed to end the day at 1.58%. However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulusI have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! 

I beg to differ

Partying responsibly. @BobNeiwen


Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner. 

They have fired a lot of bullets and even if there was a meaningful bounce they cannot raise rates.

Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2 

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Solid relative strength for $GOLD and has acted as somewhat of a "safe haven", something not seen for a long time. @AdamMancini4
Commodities


We continue bull flagging below big $1850 resistance. Could continue longer but sets up the next leg up with $1880, $1960 immediate targets (as long as $1800 holds)

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The Markets The Lotos-eaters Gold and Silver Have finally got the Big MO
Commodities



28-MAR-2021 :: GOLD HAS COMPLETED ITS CONSOLIDATION AND IS HEADED BACK TO ATHS



Silver is the single most important asset that I’m focused on. @TaviCosta 


If I had to boil down my entire macro thesis into one position, it would undoubtedly be that.

Once silver breaks above $30, I believe we will see an explosive move to new highs.


04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021 I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00 



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09-MAY-2021 :: The Invisible Microbe COVID19
Africa


For the rest of the World and India in particular it remains the case of a a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”
"My concern right now is that this virus has huge kinetic energy”, said @DrMikeRyan
Africa which as to date emerged relatively unscathed from the health element of COVID19 might be casting a weary glance over its shoulder at India and would certainly be prudent to do so.

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Turning To Africa
Africa





We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming



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"FX headwinds Nigerian Naira, Egyptian Pound and Kenyan Shilling declining by 15%, 9% and 19% respectively against the Euro in the first quarter of 2021,YoY."
Africa



"FX headwinds as a result of local currency depreciations against the Euro over the past year, with the Nigerian Naira, Egyptian Pound and Kenyan Shilling declining by 15%, 9% and 19% respectively against the Euro in the first quarter of 2021,YoY."



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Ethiopia Lost $500 Million on Telecom License Mobile-Money Move @bpolitics @Habesh_
Africa



Ethiopia’s decision to exclude mobile money from the terms of two new telecom licenses cost the government about $500 million from bid levels, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said.

The block imposed to allow the country to build its own expertise in phone-based financial technology will be lifted after about a year, Abiy said at the launch of Telebirr, a mobile-payments service. 

Ethio Telecom, the state-owned operator, will run Telebirr.

“This decision has cost us a high price,” the prime minister said. 

“When it was decided to open up the telecom market about two years ago, one of the key areas of contention was the issue of mobile money.”

The government has long been in the process of selling two new telecom licenses -- a policy that’s at the heart of Abiy’s economic-reform plan. 

The move will open up one of the last major markets yet to welcome international investors, and is intended to trigger a wider privatization program to raise foreign-exchange and boost productivity.

The issue of mobile money has been vital to the progress of the auction. 

Financial technology is a major revenue and profit driver for African telecom operators, who are filling a gap left by traditional banks and taking advantage of soaring smartphone use.

“Though Ethiopian mobile penetration lags behind peers, investment and lowered prices should lead to strong growth in takeup of mobile services,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Davies said in a note. 

“The value to international investors depends on agreements with the government and how it chooses to regulate the market.”

Ethiopia has received a license bid from a consortium including Vodafone Group Plc, Vodacom Group Ltd. and Kenya’s Safaricom Ltd. 

Another offer was made by MTN Group Ltd., Africa’s largest wireless carrier, and China’s Silk Road Fund.

The country is yet to announce the result.

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Safaricom Ltd. reports FY EPS -6.8% 2021 Earnings here @SafaricomPLC #SafaricomFYResults
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Par Value:                  0.05/-

Closing Price:           40.85

Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00

Market Capitalization:        1,636,672,733,800

EPS:               1.71 

PE:                23.88 

  

Safaricom reports FY Earnings through 31st March 2021 versus through 31st March 2020

FY Total Revenue 264.0265b versus 262.5557b +0.6% 

FY Service revenue 250.3518b versus 2512141b

FY Handsets and other Revenue 12.3165b versus 10.4878b

FY Direct Costs [80.0151b] versus [74.7010b] +7.1%

FY Expected credit losses [ECL] on financial Assets [3.0097b] versus [1.6696b] +80.3%

FY Other Expenses [46.0348b] versus [47.5597b] [3.2%]

FY Earnings before [EBITDA] 134.1292b versus 138.0415b [2.8%]

FY Depreciation and Amortisation [37.9643b] versus [36.5477b] 

FY Earnings before Interest and taxes [EBIT] 96.1649b versus 101.4938b [5.3%]

FY Profit before Income Tax 93.6355b versus 105.7730b [11.5%]

FY Profit after Tax 68.6762b versus 73.6579b [6.8%]

FY EPS 1.71 versus 1.84 [6.8%] 

Final Dividend 0.92cents a share [+Interim 0.45 =1.37]

Commentary 

Service Revenue declined 0.3% FY21 [with a decline of 4.8% IN 1H and +4.00% growth in 2H

Recovery in 2H was driven by return to charging on zero rated M-PESA transactions in Q4

Double digit growth in mobile data and fixed data growth,

One month active customers grew 9.9% YoY to 31.45m [The Demographic dividend] 

M-PESA revenue declined 2.1% YoY with a decline of 14.5% YoY in 1H FY21 and recorded significant recovery in 2H FY21 growing 10.1% YoY attributed to the lapse of free fees in Q4

Total M-PESA transaction value grew 58.2% YoY to 22.04 Trillion while volume of M-PESA transactions grew 29.8% YoY to 11.68b

Mobile Data Revenue grew 11.5% YoY 

Active 4G devices grew 39.8% YoY to 8.5m while data customers using more than 1GB in our network grew 31.1% YoY to 6.1m

Capital Expenditure stood at 34.96b

Overall capex spend declined 3.2% YoY in FY21 

Borrowings As at 31st March 2021 Bank Borrowings were 14.77b while Cash and Cash Equivalents stood at 26.74b

Key Highlights 

Voice Revenue declined 4.6% to 82.5520b

Voice outgoing minutes per subscriber grew 19.1% YoY and incoming minutes grew 16.2%

ARPU declined 10.3% YoY 

Messaging Revenue declined 11.7% to 13.6024b

Voice and Messaging are now 38.4% of service revenue 

M-PESA Revenue declined 2.1% to 82.6474b

Mobile Data Revenue grew 11.5% to 44.7932b

Usage per data Subscriber grew 32.7% supporting ARPU growth of 3.7% YoY

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Mobile Data Infographic via @SafaricomPLC #SafaricomFYResults
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services





Conclusions

In the context of the Reporting period - These are resilient even muscular results.

M-PESA will accelerate off this and might well reach double digit revenue acceleration in the next FY

Mobile Data speaks to to the ubiquity of the Information century.

The Ethiopia Project is material because we are yet to understand the balance sheet intensity that will be required. 



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6 companies delaying results now: @MwangoCapital
N.S.E General


@WPPScangroup_ @Kenya_Re @eacables @CrownPaintsPLC @HomeAfrika Express Kenya PLC 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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May 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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