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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 08th of July 2021
 
Morning
Africa


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A FinTwit Menagerie Phenotypes, behaviors, and identification. @coloradotravis
World Of Finance


Quants
 Get mangled during regime changes but grow steadily in power and arrogance as regime persists.  Most can code, kinda.  
Often seen flexing math abilities or prominently displaying greek letters.
Macros Spend most of the time being “eventually right.” Generally wrong at any given moment.  High skill cap: the brief moments they are right can make them godlike but DOA if they get it wrong.
These are the people who seem to know a lot but everyone is making fun of.
Old Money Born into it.  Post pics in swanky spots and of expensive things that seem fun but, like, really only before kids.  Comfortable around money.
Probably manages a fund or works at Deutschebank or something.
New Money First generation with enough that paying attention matters.  Smart but kinda innocent.  Displays gratitude to anyone who is kind to them in a way that doesn't fit with finance culture.  
40% of aggregate FinTwit revenue comes from this cohort.
The Benjamin Franklin Has a printing press and uses it - likely to run a subscription service.  Disliked by FinTwit trader-capitalists for sullying themselves with actual entrepreneurship.  
Likely most profitable total IRR on here if you include subs in the calc.
The Hedge Monster Comes on FinTwit to slap the water like orcas do to stun fish before they eat them.  Making eye contact them will lose you money.  
You're definitely gonna hear about their charity.
Swing Traders The Starship Troopers Roughnecks of finance.  Some are gonna get flat out blown up or eaten by those huge bug things.  
But some will be heroes, and that’s beautiful.
Goldbugs Priests of the Old Ways.  Often historically literate to a weird degree.  Frequently holds a broad portfolio but it’s a defensive one and there’s a good slug of gold in it.  
There has only ever been one true money and they’re gonna tell you about it.
Bitcoin Maximalists A splinter group, descended from goldbugs.  Satoshi is basically the Martin Luther of goldbugs and his big gripe was that gold wasn’t digital and that we just kinda find it randomly at odd intervals in the dirt (ick).
Extremely certain they are right.
Crypto Aficcionados The GenXers of crypto.  A small crypto sub-culture, many of whom very much know what they’re doing.  
Everyone forgets about them, often because they’re busy doing actual work.
Professors Usually actual professors.  Posts about how economics could actually be used to improve the world while Wall St. laughs at them for it in the comments.  
Likely at least mildly dismayed with humanity, but still hopeful.

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“Derivatives,” Alvin said. “I don’t speculate about the future, I trade it.” @NewYorker
World Of Finance



And they were cross‑linked and interwoven and resold in large bundles, “future on future,” Alvin said, handing me a paper towel. 
“Forget about the forces of the free market, my friend. Commodity prices no longer refer to any value, past or present—they’re just ghosts from the future.”

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09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance



On 8th March when the Bears had gotten hold of the US 10 Year, I wrote that I expected the 10 Year to target 1.45% well we got real close on Friday before the market reversed 


Ten- year yields initially plunged to a more than two-month low of 1.46%, then reversed to end the day at 1.58%. However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! 

I beg to differ

Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner. 

They have fired a lot of bullets and even if there was a meaningful bounce they cannot raise rates.

Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2 

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"Las ficciones existen por eso y para eso. Porque tenemos una sola vida y nuestros deseos y fantasías nos exigen tener mil". Mario Vargas Llosa @HekyraFrases
Misc.


"Fictions exist for that and for that. Because we have only one life and our desires and fantasies require us to have a thousand."

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If China invades Taiwan, Tokyo may interpret the move as a "threat to Japan's survival" and deploy the Self-Defense Forces to exercise collective self-defense, Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso @NikkeiAsia
Law & Politics



"If a major incident happened [in Taiwan], it would not be strange at all if it touches on a situation threatening survival," Aso said during a speech in Tokyo.

 "If that is the case, Japan and the U.S. must defend Taiwan together."
Aso, who also serves as finance minister, is one of four cabinet members who sit on Japan's National Security Council.
Japan's deputy prime minister noted that "the situation over Taiwan is becoming extremely intense," referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping's comments about the self-ruled island during a speech last week to commemorate the Communist Party's 100-year anniversary.

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If Japan involves itself in the Taiwan question militarily, it will be Japan digging its own grave. CGTN
Law & Politics



However, if Japan cooperates with the US to carry out military actions against China, especially over the island of Taiwan or Diaoyu Islands, Beijing will view the move as engaging in a military conflict with China. 

In this sense, Japan will become the target of China's military strike. This will endanger Japan's survival.

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“In Haiti, people never really die,” my grandmothers said when I was a child
Law & Politics



In the Haitian vodou tradition, it is believed by some that the souls of the newly dead slip into rivers and streams and remain there, under the water, for a year and a day. 

Then, lured by ritual prayer and song, the souls emerge from the water and the spirits are reborn.
These reincarnated spirits go on to occupy trees, and, if you listen closely, you may hear their hushed whispers in the wind. 

The spirits can also hover over mountain ranges, or in grottoes, or caves, where familiar voices echo our own when we call out their names.
The year-and-a-day commemoration is seen, in families that believe in it and practice it, as a tremendous obligation, an honorable duty, in part because it assures a transcendental continuity of the kind that has kept us Haitians, no matter where we live, linked to our ancestors for generations.

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Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 6 July 2021 @WHO
Misc.

 



Globally, after a decline in newly reported cases for seven consecutive weeks, there has been a slight increase in new weekly cases in the last two weeks, with over 2.6 million cases reported last week (28 June – 4 July 2021) as compared to the previous week (Figure 1). 

The number of weekly deaths continued to decrease, with just under 54 000 deaths reported in the past week, a 7% decrease as compared to the previous week. 

This week, all Regions except the Americas reported an increase in new cases. 

The European Region reported a sharp increase in incidence (30%) whereas the African region reported a sharp increase in mortality (23%) as compared to the previous week (Table 1). 

All Regions, with the exception of the Americas and South-East Asia Regions, reported an increase in the number of deaths in the past week.

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

Brazil (364 709 new cases; 30% decrease)

India (312 250 new cases; 11% decrease)

Colombia (204 556 new cases; similar to last week)

Indonesia (168 780 new cases; 35% increase)

United Kingdom (161 805 new cases; 67% increase) 



Over the past week, the highest numbers of new cases per 100 000 population were reported from
 

Seychelles (758 new cases per 100 000 population)

Mongolia (472 new cases per 100 000 population)

Colombia (402 new cases per 100 000 population)

Namibia (367 new cases per 100 000 population) 

Cyprus (324 new cases per 100 000 population)


 

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Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein
Misc.



The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for many vaccines and antibody-based prophylactics aimed at bringing COVID-19 under control. 

Such a narrow molecular focus raises the specter of viral immune evasion as a potential failure mode for these biomedical interventions. 

With the emergence of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility and immune evasion potential, a critical question is this: how easily can the virus escape neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) targeting the spike RBD? 

To answer this question, we combined an analysis of the RBD structure-function with an evolutionary modeling framework. 

Our structure-function analysis revealed that epitopes for RBD-targeting nAbs overlap one another substantially and can be evaded by escape mutants with ACE2 affinities comparable to the wild type, that are observed in sequence surveillance data and infect cells in vitro. 

This suggests that the fitness cost of nAb-evading mutations is low. 

We then used evolutionary modeling to predict the frequency of immune escape before and after the widespread presence of nAbs due to vaccines, passive immunization or natural immunity. 

Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection. 

Predicted resistance timelines are comparable to those of the decay kinetics of nAbs raised against vaccinal or natural antigens, raising a second potential mechanism for loss of immunity in the population. 

Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities.

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09-MAY-2021 :: However, The Western World and China think they have the microbe licked with their Superpower Vaccine[s]
Misc.



Everything now pivots on Vaccine Efficacy and I for one don't think we can be as confident as some Vaccinologists would want us to be 

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.@TheLancet and Peter Daszak are gaslighting their critics - my ⁦@unherd response to their latest disingenuous statement on the pandemic origins @ianbirrell
Misc.



Someone needs to tell The Lancet the most basic tenet of crisis management: when in a hole, stop digging. 

Instead, this world-renowned medical journal seems determined to keep shredding its reputation, in tandem with a group of experts ignorant to the damage they have caused the scientific community as they have stifled debate regarding the pandemic’s origins.
Early last year, just as the world was starting to grapple with the trauma of Covid, The Lancet published a highly-controversial statement in support of Chinese scientists, attacking “conspiracy theories suggesting that Covid-19 does not have a natural origin” and praising Beijing’s “rapid, open and transparent sharing of data”.
Daszak’s gang has gone back into battle with a follow-up statement, as I revealed they were planning to do 10 days ago. 

Even the headline on The Lancet article — Science, not speculation, is essential to determine how SARS-CoV-2 reached humans — seems designed to gaslight their critics, given their previous stance.
This latest statement is more nuanced but again disingenuous. 

It claims “the strongest clue” is that the virus evolved in nature, while saying suggestions of a lab leak “remain without scientifically validated evidence”

Yet there is zero firm evidence for natural spillover, and significant circumstantial evidence to raise suspicions of a lab incident. Besides, any leak could have involved a virus sampled from nature

The statement even dares argue it is “time to turn down the heat of the rhetoric and turn up the light of scientific inquiry” when no one has been more forceful in pushing the idea that a possible lab leak was “baloney” and a “conspiracy theory” than Daszak.

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Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19
Law & Politics



Controlling the COVID19 Narrative, suppressing the Enquiry, parlaying the situation into one of singular advantage marks a singular moment 

Xi Jinping has exhibited Chinese dominance over multiple theatres from the Home Front, the International Media Domain, the ‘’Scientific’’ domain over which he has achieved complete ownership and where any dissenting view is characterized as a ‘’conspiracy theory’’

It remains a remarkable achievement



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There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.
Misc.




Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19. 

It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later. 


Those who have chosen to propagate this narrative are above the radar and in plain sight and need to be called to account. 

The Utter Failure to call these 5th columnists to Account is the clearest Signal that there is no external threat because it is already on the inside.



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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.




“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

 “There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on.”




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’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Misc.




There is also a non negligible possibility that #COVID19 was deliberately released


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More than a billion seashore animals may have cooked to death in B.C. heat wave, says UBC researcher
Food, Climate & Agriculture



Shoreline temperatures above 50 C and low tides led to mass deaths of mussels, clams, sea stars

Chris Harley walked onto Vancouver's Kitsilano Beach in late June and smelled death.
Carpeting the sea rocks were tens of thousands of mussels, clams, sea stars and snails, emitting a putrid odour that hung thick in the heat.
"I was pretty stunned," he said.
Harley, a marine biologist at the University of British Columbia, now estimates that last week's record-breaking heat wave in B.C. may have killed more than one billion seashore animals living along the Salish Sea coastline.
The findings shine a light on the seismic effects of the heat wave, which has already been linked to hundreds of human deaths as the ecological toll continues to unravel.

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A thermal image of recently killed mussels in Lighthouse Park in West Vancouver, B.C., captured on June 28.
Food, Climate & Agriculture


The scale bar on the right shows the hottest and coolest temperatures recorded in the image. (Chris Harley/University of British Columbia)

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1803
Dollar Index 92.716
Japan Yen 110.01
Swiss Franc 0.92467
Pound 1.3766
Aussie 0.7343
India Rupee 74.7515
South Korea Won 1147.00
Brazil Real 5.2326
Egypt Pound 15.7040
South Africa Rand 14.424

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#Brent back below its 21-day SMA with the next levels to watch being $72 and $70 @Ole_S_Hansen 72.80
Minerals, Oil & Energy


#Crudeoil market clearly getting spooked by the risk of UAE going solo in order to sell as much crude as possible. #Brent back below its 21-day SMA with the next levels to watch being $72 and $70

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Lebanon is 'days away' from social explosion, PM Diab warns @Reuters
Emerging Markets



The World Bank has called Lebanon's crisis one of the worst depressions of modern history. 

The currency has lost more than 90% of its value and more than half of the population has been propelled into poverty.
Anger over fuel shortages has spilled into fights at petrol stations and the prime minister appeared to be warning of the prospect of more unrest.
"Lebanon is a few days away from the social explosion. The Lebanese are facing this dark fate alone," Diab said in a speech at a meeting with ambassadors and representatives of diplomatic 

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21 OCT 19 :: The New Economy of Anger
Emerging Markets



Nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions.

We have recently witnessed the ‘’WhatsApp’’ Revolution in Lebanon, where a proposed Tax on WhatsApp calls sent up to 17 per cent of the Lebanese Population into the street. 

The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot. 

Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.


Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics, 

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’



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WHO regional overviews - Epidemiological week 28 June-4 July 2021 African Region @WHO
Africa



The African Region reported over 204 000 new cases and over 3300 new deaths, a 15% and a 23% increase respectively as compared to the previous week

For the sixth consecutive week, the region continues to show a marked increase in weekly case incidence and mortality; the Southern and Eastern parts of Africa remain the most affected areas on the continent. 

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

South Africa (132 450 new cases; 223.3 new cases per 100 000 population; a 28% increase)

Zambia (16 456 new cases; 89.5 new cases per 100 000; a 14% decrease), 

Namibia (9342 new cases; 367.7 new cases per 100 000; a 28% decrease)
The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from 

South Africa (1729 new deaths; 2.9 new deaths per 100 000 population; a 46% increase)

Zambia (430 new deaths; 2.3 new deaths per 100 000; a 16% increase)

Uganda (325 new deaths; <1 new deaths per 100 000; a 34% increase).

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Cases are doubling every three weeks, and the continent is on the verge of exceeding its worst week of the pandemic.
Africa



“You will see a fourth, fifth and sixth wave and it will be extremely difficult for us to survive as a people. Let us be very clear that is what is at stake.”



Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.
https://bit.ly/35ekJJr

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‘Silent mass drowning’: Call for urgent supply of vaccines as delta variant threatens Africa @Telegraph
Africa



However, Dr Alakija – who has been calling for vaccines in Africa for months – said that while vaccines remain critical in the longer-term, the focus now needs to be on dealing with the emergency. 

“We are in acute emergency mode – we need to prepare oxygen, field hospitals, health workers, declare humanitarian emergencies in countries where the systems are overwhelmed, and have surge capacity people coming in if needs be,” she said.
She said that the pandemic in Africa was “silent”, with people suffering or dying at home
“In India we had the burning funeral pyres that the whole world looked at in horror,” she said. 

“This is like watching bodies slide under water, a silent mass drowning where people are reaching their hands up for help but no-one is watching and nobody can see.” 

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 46 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa


South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tunisia & Liberia Rwanda at peak Mozambique at 98% 

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February 1st 2021 ‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
Africa


It’s impossible for the state to manage a guerrilla war up there and at the same time manage to control the rest of the country.

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November 8, 2020 @PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.



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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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